Food Security & Political Stability: Disentangling Causes & Consequences

Prof dr Ruerd Ruben

Impact Assessment for Food Security

Food & Nutrition Insecurity & Civil Conflict

Key dimensions of Food Security

Food & Nutrition Security

Conflict

Food security risks

Changes in Poverty

Poverty in Fragile & non-fragile states (1990-2025)

Share of Rural poverty

Strong decline in overall poverty; Most structural poverty will become concentrated in Fragile states

Chronic poverty remains mainly a rural issue; Urban settings face inequality & undernutrition

Differences in socio-economic performance

More structural Poverty & Food Insecurity in (post)conflict countries;associated with many other socio-economic problems.

Underinvestment in African Agriculture

Public Investments in Agriculture (10% target)

Agricultural growth rates (2003-09)

Small public investment in agriculture (R&D and rural infrastructure)

Limited growth rates of agricultural output & stagnating productivity

Unstable Food & Agri-commodity Prices

Strongly variable food prices with shocks (‘food spikes’) in 2008 & 2011

High food prices: trigger for (urban) food riots , but only rather loose association with Arab Spring events

Foresight modelling & scenarios

Urbanization, Dietary Change & Food Import

Food import share (% GDP) in DCs

Agricultural trade balance LDCs

Dietary changes (1964-2030)

Correlation & Association ≠ Causality

Poverty & (local) Conflicts

GDP pc / GDP growth & Rule of Law (Rodrik)

Poverty

Political Governance

Food Securi

ty

Some (un)confirmed Hypotheses

Food scarcity & migration

●Trigger for domestic (rural to urban) migration

●Not for international migration (driven by insecurity)

Food inequality & corruption & crime (‘greed & grievance’)

●Food price subsidies favouring urban middle class

●Land grabbing & water disputes civil unrest

Food shocks & human relations

●Natural (disasters) demand for insurance

●Man-made (war) trauma & reduced trust (‘food as weapon’)

Aid & Trade Policies for Socio-political Stability

Mitigating conflicts

●Infrastructure (roads, irrigation) & cultivars (GMOs?)

●Rainfall insurance (price expectations crops, cattle)

Enhancing exchange

●Post-harvest loss reduction (storage, transport)

●Regional trade arrangements

Promoting interdependence

●Cooperative development

●Public-private partnerships & contracts

Thank you for your attention!