Food Security Situation in Zimbabwe

5 December 2019

Rural Food Insecurity Prevalence – 2019/20

6%

30%

42%

11%

51%59%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Foo

d In

secu

rity

P

reva

len

ce

564,599

2,829,159

4,071,233

1,052,768

4,500,000

5,500,000

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Foo

d In

secu

re P

op

ula

tio

n

Food Insecurity Population Trends : 2014 -19Food Insecurity Trends : 2014 -19

6%

23%35%

42%

1% 3% 7% 11%6%13%

20%28%21%

38%50%

59%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Apr - June Jul - Sept Oct - Dec Jan - Mar

2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

Food Insecurity Trends by Quarter: 2016 -19

Severity of Rural Food Insecurity: IPC Analysis

• WFP IPC compatible analysis for Jan to Mar projected 4.1

million to be in need of urgent food assistance by

January 2010.

• 1.2 million in projected to be in phase 4 and 2.9 million

in phase 3 with 10 districts in IPC phase 4 (Rushinga

added)

• Projections based on price increases and shortage of

maize grain only.

IPC Projection: Oct – Dec 2019

• 3.5 million people projected to be in urgent

need of food assistance by October 2019.

• 1.1 million people in IPC phase 4 and 2.5

million in phase 3 with 9 districts in IPC

phase 4.

WFP IPC Compatible Projection: Jan – Mar 2020

Rural Food Insecurity Prevalence and Cereal Production

952,600

470,668

1,240,0001,330,000

1,450,000

968,041

798,596

1,456,153

808,849

575,582

2,155,526

1,700,702

776,635

32%

60%

18% 15%

12%19%

25%

6%

30%

42%

11%

28%

59%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Maize production Rural food insecurity

• Crop production highly correlated with food insecurity in Zimbabwe

Urban Food Insecurity Prevalence

30

77

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

Cereal Insecure Below FPL Below TCPL

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f h

ou

seh

old

s (%

)

• About 30% of the households are cereal

insecure and in need of urgent

assistance.

• About 77% of the households are below

the Food Poverty Line and unable to

meet basic needs.

• Approximately 93% of the households

are below the Total Consumption

Poverty Line.

Urban Food Insecurity Prevalence

55

.0

48

.3

42

.8

42

.3

41

.3

40

.3

40

.1

37

.6

35

.7

35

.2

33

.9

33

.2

32

.8

32

.8

32

.7

31

.7

31

.3

30

.9

30

.5

29

.2

27

.9

27

.7

27

.7

26

.0

25

.9

25

.0

24

.9

23

.5

23

.0

19

.3

17

.6

15

.9

1.4

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f h

ou

seh

old

s (%

)

Findings from WFP Food Security and Markets Monitoring

• Households are increasingly failing to access adequate food withoutexternal assistance as a result of the ongoing economic challenges (mainreason provided is continuous price increases)

• Deteriorating food insecurity situation (increased coping, borderline topoor FCS)

• Poor start of the 2019/20 rainfall increasing the chance of a bad season• Anecdotal and secondary sources are suggesting Government’s inability

of importing grains and its capacity to continue with the FDMS program.• IPC analysis that will be conducted by ZimVAC between December and

January will provide a comprehensive food security situation for January to April 2020 period.

Food Security Situation concluding Remarks• All assumptions used for projecting food insecurity have been over taken (e.g. availability of

grain, price levels and poor season outlook (unavailability casual labour)).

• The economy as a whole, is deteriorating beyond predicted levels

✓ Fuel scarcity continues

✓ Inflation escalating in all sectors

✓ Cash liquidity challenges worsening

✓ Inadequate energy supply – aggravated

✓ Water availability still a challenge

✓ Poverty, unemployment, social services challenges (health, education etc.)

✓ Incapacitated social safety nets – the need is overwhelming for the resources available

✓ Prohibitive cost of agricultural input for the currents season

• Food insecurity situation is likely to have deepened and expanded (increase prevalence and

severity) in view of removal of subsidies on grain prices.

• Recommending an immediate reassessment of the situation and adjustment of interventions as

it is likely that population in phase IV has increased.

WFP response and Scaling up plans

• The WFP planned caseload for this quarter is 1.6 million people in 31 districts.

• The plan was to scale-up to reach 2.7 million food insecure people in 43 districts during the

period January to April 2020 assuming Government would take up the remaining caseload.

• However, given the deteriorating food security situation and questions around Government’s

ability to continue to cover 3 million people with food assistance under the FDMS programme

in the coming months, it becomes impossible for WFP to focus only on its current planned

caseload when the needs are high and Government might not cover households which are not

part of WFP’s response.

• Consequently, WFP is revising its LSA response plan to target all households projected to fall in

IPC 3 and 4 at the peak of the lean season in all the 60 rural districts.

• This increases the planned beneficiary number to 4.1 million people from January to April

2020.

WFP response plan – transfer modality

• WFP proposes to transfer assistance using the in-kind modality given the operational

environment for cash based transfers has been extremely challenging since the

pronouncement of the SI142 which made the ZWL the only legal currency for local

transactions, the constrained availability of the ZWL physical notes, high inflation which erodes

the purchasing power the transfer, large cereal gap and questions around government’s ability

to import sufficient grains to fill the gap, unpredictability in availability of basic commodities

on the markets as a result of the poor seasonal outlook, etc.

• The food basket will comprise of cereals, pulses and vegetable oil.

• Children under 5 in targeted HH will receive the nutritious Super Cereal.

WFP response and Funding requirements/Shortfall

• To implement the response plan at the revised level and reach 4.1 million people at the peak of

the lean season, WFP requires an additional USD211 million – which is the funding gap.

• (total requirement Dec-June: USD293 million)

• WFP would like to make a passionate appeal to both the traditional donors and the new

donors for contributions to help the organisation to reach the most food insecure households

with food assistance in a timely manner.

• Such assistance will go a long way in ensuring that the most vulnerable households do not

engage in negative coping mechanisms.

• Early confirmation of contributions will ensure timely response as a lead time of 4-6 weeks is

required from the time of receipt of contribution to delivery of commodities at FDPs.

WFP Urban Response• In response to the urban food insecurity WFP has scaled up its pilot of the Urban Social

Assistance programme to target 100,000 food insecure people in eight domains.

• The 8 domains are: Epworth, Harare South, Norton, Marondera, Rusape, Mutare, Bulawayo and

Masvingo.

• The objective of the pilot is to provide access to food through a social safety net to ‘at-risk’

households affected by challenges associated with socio-economic risks, vulnerabilities and

poverty in urban and peri-urban areas of Zimbabwe.

• Currently WFP and Partners are conducting a baseline survey that will assist in the

identification and selection of food insecure households.

• The pilot will run for one year. In addition to provision of food assistance through CBT, this will

be accompanied by resilience-building interventions to promote the well-being of vulnerable

households in the urban areas and their ability to cope with shocks and stressors in future.

• Implementation of resilience-building interventions will start in the first quarter of 2020 upon

completion of the baseline exercise to identify the activities through community and

stakeholder engagement.