footbal trading system darren duckworth
DESCRIPTION
bettingTRANSCRIPT
1
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
LEGAL NOTICE
Disclaimer and Terms of Use Agreement. The author
and publisher of this manual and the accompanying
materials have used their best efforts in preparing this
manual. The author and publisher make no representation
2
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
or warranties with respect to the accuracy, applicability,
fitness or completeness of this manual. The information in
this manual is strictly for educational purposes. Therefore
if you wish to apply the ideas contained in this manual,
you are taking full responsibility for your actions. EVERY
EFFORT HAS BEEN MADE TO ACCURATELY REPRESENT
THIS PRODUCT AND IT’S
POTENTIAL. Even though this industry is one of the few
where one can write their own cheque in terms of earnings,
there is no guarantee that you will earn money using the
techniques and ideas in this material. Earning potential is
entirely dependant on the person using this manual, ideas
and techniques. This is not purported as a “get rich quick”
scheme. Your level of success depends on the time you
devote to the techniques suggested. I cannot guarantee
your success or income level, nor am I responsible for any
of your actions.
Many factors will be important in determining your actual
results and no guarantees are made that you will achieve
results similar to mine or anybody else’s. In fact no
guarantees are made that you will achieve any results from
the ideas and techniques in this material. The author and publisher disclaim any warranties (express or implied), merchantability, or fitness for
any particular purpose. The author and publisher shall in no event be held liable to any party for any
direct, indirect, punitive, incicental or other consequential damages arising directly or indirectly from any
use of this material which is provided “as is” without warranties. This manual is © copyrighted by Darren Duckworth/ FootballTradeSystem. No part of this manual may be
copied or changed in any format, sold, or used in any other way than what is outlined in this manual under
any circumstances.
© Darren Duckworth, Football Trade System. All Rights Reserved.
FOOTBALL TRADING SYSTEM RULES
1. Discipline, Discipline, Discipline. You must have this
quality in abundance. Any form of gambling involves
3
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
emotion. I used to suffer mood swings when I lost and
then that would effect my judgement on further
transactions. I now control what I do within strict
guidelines. You will at some time experience a down
swing, it is part and parcel, keep motivated keep repeating
and you will be successful.
2. Stick to what we know. I have spent years trialing
this system and now use it as enclosed. I only trade on
football. You may think you can apply these methods to
other types of sport. My advice is don’t. I started gambling
on football years ago and this manual is the result of
thousands of transactions. If you follow football, emotion
must get out of the window, I am a season ticket holder at
a premiership club, however if I can make money from a
result including them which I don’t like, so be it. Football
now accounts for more gambling income in the UK than
any other sport. Most of these gamblers bet with opinion
and emotion, it is there money you will be taking. We
cannot have any opinion on the outcome of a match at all.
3. Start at a level you can afford. When promises of
large incomes are made it is easy to try and short circuit
things to get there quicker. You are looking for a lifetime
changing income. I do this for quality of life as much as
money. I want to be able to spend time doing things other
than working. However it took me time to get here as it
will you. Start at a level you are comfortable with and
build up using other peoples money.
LET’S GET STARTED
Ok I have made some bold statements now it is time to
get you into action. As I said in effect you are going to
become a bookmaker, trading on one outcome, and one
outcome of a football match only, irrelevant of the teams
playing. Over the last 8 years only 22% of the worlds
4
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
football matches have ended in draws, therefore 78%
have ended in wins for one team. Of the 22% that ended
in draws only 7% have ended in goalless or 0-0 (nil nil)
draws. I apologise if I repeat myself but there may be
people reading this who know absolutely nothing about
football so I am going to explain things very simply, if you
are aware of all the terminology please bear with me. The
system I operate basically looks at a way to make money
on the 93% of matches that don’t end goalless. If a match
does I will lose but I will show you a way around this so
that you don’t lose much at all.
We are going to make you a bookmaker that offers the draw
and then makes money when the goals go in.
STEP 1 – LOCATING OUR MARKET
The first thing we need to do is go to on FOOTBALL
5
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
When you click this a new screen will appear and we will
select the day’s in-play coupons.
It is vital that you select In-Play games only. We want to
be able to trade when the match is live so we will need to
note kick off times etc. And only pick games that haven’t yet
started! Do not ignore the importance of this.
So you can see from the above figure I have selected an
in play coupon for Tuesday’s matches.
This will present the following screen:-
6
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
Here you can see a list of matches predominantly with teams I have never heard of. The most important part of this screen is the three columns to the right of the teams that contain figures. You will see the headings at the top that contain the only three possible outcomes for the games.
HOME – The home team (the first team listed on the left)
can win. You will see a Back column with Blue Numbers
and a Lay column with Pink Numbers. If we thought the
Home team would win we would click the back square,
that means we want to back them to win, if we thought
they would not win we would click the lay square. By
clicking this square we would have either the draw or the
away team winning in our favour but lose our money if the
home team won.
7
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
DRAW – Here we have the 2 outcomes we can back the
draw if we felt that was how the match will finish or lay the
draw if we felt that one of the two teams was going to win
the game. THIS IS WHERE YOU WILL CONDUCT ALL OF
YOUR BUSINESS.
AWAY – The away team (the second team listed on the right)
can win. Just the same as the outcome for Home matches, we
shall be ignoring both the home and away columns.
Now we have to understand what the numbers in the square
means. As you can see they are listed as decimal numbers.
If we take one of the matches we can look in more detail
Here we see the top match with the three outcomes and
the numbers. You will also note the kick off time listed
below the match, so this match kicks of at 2.30 pm English
time.
The numbers for the draw are back at 3.6 and lay 3.65. So
if I thought this match was going to end in a draw I would
click the blue back button and could stake £2 (the
minimum amount Betfair allow). If I was successful I
would get 2.6 times my stake back and my stake on top so
8
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
Betfair will then deduct a small commission off this, which
is how they make their money. They only take commission
on the profit not your initial stake
THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH IS VERY IMPORTANT.
If I was going to lay the draw, so I felt the game would
have a result I would click the 3.65 pink lay square. This
now means that I am offering another Betfair user odds of
that the match will not be a draw. If I selected a £10 stake
and the match was a draw I would have to pay that user
10 x 2.65 = 26.50. If however one of the teams wins the
game I receive his £10 less the small commission. What
you must note here is that I am in a position that I can
lose or pay out more than I can win. This is the price you
have to pay to have the fact that 78% of games end in a
definitive result.
STEP 3 – Placing our initial trade
We are now in a position to place our initial trade. The
selection of matches we would trade on is simple. We are
going to trade in games in which the lay figure for the
draw is 4.2 or less. Therefore we are only prepared to risk
3.2 x the amount of money we want to win. It has taken a
long time for me to get to this exact figure and it proves
most profitable. It is very easy to see a top side such as
Chelsea playing a lower league side where obviously all the
statistics point at a Chelsea win. The draw figures in such
a game may be as high as 9.0. We know in our hearts that
the likelihood is a Chelsea win but anything can happen in
football and if that lower league side equalises in the
second half with a penalty, I do not want to be risking 8
times my money which is what a lay figure of 9.0 equates
to. This is where discipline comes in.
9
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
So if we go back to our matches on the In Play coupon and look for
matches that haven’t started with odds of lower than 4.2.
And 7 out of 11 fit the criteria. The top 5 wouldn’t qualify as they have already started. Now the likelihood is I don’t want to trade all six I might only want to trade 4 so I would select the 4 lowest of the 10. So I would be looking to trade on matches 8, 10,11,12. The match 14 wouldn’t be chosen because it has the same odds as match 8 but is later.
10
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
I would now click on each of these buttons in turn.
So here I have clicked the El Harby match and entered
£300 in as my stake. In the box that pops up on the right
hand side of the page. You can see my liability, if I just left
my bet the liability (amount I could lose) would be £720 I
would have to give someone £720 if the match did end as
a draw and I receive £300 if the result is anything other
than a draw. If I was happy with this I would then click
submit at the bottom. I then repeat this process for the
next 3 games. A vital point to note is that you have to
have the money available in your account when placing
your trade, to pay should it not work out. That means I
have to have the £720 available in my account to pay if I
get it wrong, so if you are trading multiple matches be
aware that this is the case. So if starting out you just
traded this match and were looking to win £20 from this
trade you must have about £40 available in your account.
Once I have placed all my initial trades I then sit and wait for
kick off times. I generally look at the In-Play coupon first
thing in the morning and most English mid-week games are
evening kick offs so I have the day to do as I please. If you
11
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
operate this when on holiday etc. just pay attention to the
kick off times.
STEP 4 – IN-PLAY TRADING
This is now the nuts and bolts of making money. We do
not want to place our trades and then sit and hope that
the result goes our way. By trading in play we can control
our destiny. Once the game kicks off the figures in the
boxes will change. If no goals are scored the price for the
draw will come down, that means the two figures will go
lower so if we take the match we are concentrating on
whilst I write this manual when we first looked at it and
placed the bet, it was 3.4 to lay the draw, when I got to 20
minutes it had come down to 2.98 and now at nearly half
time it is 2.78 (you will have to take my word for this).
When something happens in the game the market will suspend
automatically.
This happens when a goal is scored, a penalty is awarded
or a player is sent off. All these factors can affect the
outcome of the game and therefore affect the prices that
are available. If the home team scores the likelihood of a
draw becomes less so the price for the draw will generally
increase. It is here that we can now look to make our
money. When the suspended market returns the on screen
prices will vary and what we do now is wait for the prices
to go in our favour so we can secure a market in which we
cannot lose. I want to back the draw at a greater price
than I layed it- Period.
Here is an example of a favourable game. If you look at
the graphic below and notice the price I have circled.
Before it started, the for odds for a back for a draw was
3.9 and a lay against a draw in this game was 4.1. By the
15th minute it went down to 3.6 and 3.75 as you can see
below.
12
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
Underneath you can now see that the price for the draw in
the same game is 15.5 in the back column and 19.2 in the
lay column as the score is 2-0 at half time. Compare this to
our prices before the games kicked off…
This is where I can now make money. If I lay the draw
before the game at 4.1 I can now back the draw at 15.5
and win the trade whatever the result of the game.
Here is the example.
Lay the draw at 4.1 to win £100 say.
13
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
So here I am going to win £100 ( less Betfairs commission)
if the game is not a draw but I am risking
£310 if it is a draw. 3.1x100 = 275
However I can now back the draw myself at 15.5 or 14.5-1 in
true betting terms. I will back the draw for £30.
Now whatever happens I cannot lose. If the match ends in
a draw I have backed it at 15.5 or 14.5-1 for £50 meaning
I get 14.50 x £30 profit = £435 but lose £310 on my initial
lay transaction leaving me £125 profit.
If the match is not a draw I get my £100 lay from my initial
bet less my £30 for backing the draw = £70 profit.
I suggest you read through this a few times to get the full
grasp of it. Now as it happens this price changed as two
goals were scored by Rotherham, you can see that the low
numbers in the back and lay prices for the home team
make them clear favourites. In this instance I would leave
my initial bet and just take the £100 win as I believe its
unlikely that Bradford will equalise . The more you use the
system the more you will learn when to trade off. I suggest
you start off by trading back as soon as possible until you
have built a bank up and can be a bit more risky.
As you can see if I repeat this process over 4/5 games a
day every day I can earn a tidy sum. Even nicking £20 a
time would give you £700 a week extra in your pocket. A
little and often is how to start. When you have a bank you
can play less but use bigger stakes. I would in real terms
probably have layed that game for £400-£500 and backed it
back for £100 - £200 returning a profit of about £300 either
way the result went.
14
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
How do I decide how much to stake when I back?
This is simple process. When you make your lay bet
initially note your liability, so in the last example it was
£290 if the match ended in a draw. What I do first is find
my break even figure The draw is available to back at 10.0
or 9-1. I divide my liability by this price so £290 divided by
9 = £33 in round figures. So if I back the draw at 10.0 for
£33 I will break even. I then put a smallish amount on top
of this to show a profit whatever the result, REMEMBERING
IT MUST COME OFF MY INITIAL LAY BET.
This process is basically that I repeat time and time again.
Now we have to deal with the one outcome which can cause
us problems.
What if NO GOALS are scored
Clearly in this case the match is ending in a nil - nil draw.
We have layed the draw and the lack of a goal will mean
that the prices will not change so we cannot back at a bigger
price to make money.
Firstly don’t panic. Remember in the introduction I told you
only 5% of all matches have had a 0-0 result in the last 8
years. Of all the Premiership matches played in January
2013 only 3 ended 0-0. Football is a game of goals, and as
you can see from the above in just one Monday evening
coupon the opportunity to win money far outweighs the
odd 0-0 draw.
This is why we operate In-Play. If the match looks like
ending 0-0 we can still back the draw but at a smaller price
than we layed but this will limit our losses.
15
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
Now this is a rare occurrence because of my 95% cushion
that a goal will be scored. The advice of don’t panic is the
best I can give you. If you follow the above you cannot fail
to make money.
As an example here is roughly how I started to build my bank
up so that you can get an idea of where to start and how
soon you can make decent money.
I suggest a deposit of £500 into Betfair if you have it if not
don’t worry just deposit what you can afford and stake
accordingly.
Initially look to lay for £20, if you do this successfully 20 times
you have earnt £400 less Betfair commission and money used
to stake back so you should have about £300 profit, so your
bank of £500 is now £800
Now up you lay stake to £30 and again repeat 20 times
giving you a further £600 less the deductions say about £450
and a bank of £1250. Now up your lay stake to £40 and you
only need 10 trades giving you a further £400 (£300 after
deductions) Bank now £1550. Now upto £50 and again 10
trades should produce about £380 net profit and a bank of
nearly £2000. Now up to £75 and a further 10 trades. By
now your bank should be near the £2600 mark and you can
up your stake to £100 and trade a bit less say 10 a week for
a few weeks. Once you get you bank upto £5000 you can
start trading at £150 to £200.
Believe me this does not take long. I now trade about 1012 games
a week at £300-£500 a time.
16
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
The secret is to start small, get proficient at working out the
numbers and increase your stake gradually whilst getting
involved in less action.
Points to Note
Firstly you do not need to know anything about football, I do
not know anything about half the teams I trade on I work
solely on the numbers in front of me. I trade all year round
as Betfair now cover worldwide soccer. In the summer you
can switch to either a major championship such as the
World Cup or AustralDarrensoccer
Secondly do not follow this system by relying on the radio
or the television to get your information regarding goals etc.
You need to be alert to the numbers on the screen. Both TV
and Radio broadcasts are a few seconds behind realtime.
Betfair will suspend immediately a goal is scored although
you have not seen it on you television yet. Use a broad
band connection and follow your Betfair screen for
developments. This does not mean you have to stay glued
to it, just have it handy and be alert. Football is over 90
minutes so you have plenty of time.
I mentioned at the start I have a Victor Chandler account. They
offer some in-play football. I NEVER LAY WITH THEM. I always
lay on Betfair, however I may back with Victor Chandler. It may
pay to have their football betting open in a separate explorer
tab so that you can check their prices, Betfair may be offering
8.0 (7-1) whilst VC are offering 8-1. A point like this now and
then makes a huge difference to your profits.
I recommend starting by paper trading, just follow a few
games and imagine you had money involved. Write down
what you would lay at, what you back at and see the
results. One thing you will learn is not too be too hasty
when backing. Quite often the price will increase greatly
17
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
over a few minutes. For example if you look at the graphic
on page 16 which features the Grenoble game, you will
see on the right where I was getting prepared to back the
draw at 11.0. I waited and in just 4 minutes it was up to
60.0. Whilst there is the fear that a goal may be scored
and your chance may be gone, my experience tells me this
is rarely the case and just waiting a minute or so can make
all the difference.
Also whilst paper trading have your Betfair screen open and
navigate your way around it by clicking on the appropriate
buttons but never submitting your bets. This way when you
start you will be ready to fire on all cylinders.
If you want to follow the scores of games you can by going
on the Homepage of Victorchandler.com. 2/3 of the way
down on the left hand side is a Football results button. If
you click this you will have a new window open. In here
you can select Live Scores from all over the world and
keep an eye on what is going on.
All that is left for me to say is good luck with it. Do not sit
and do nothing, you have purchased this to make money so
put it to use, if you are unsure mail me. I cannot guarantee
your success but hopefully you have seen what is possible.
You still however have to put a bit of work in yourself.
My biggest pieces of advice to you are
Don’t get Greedy
Stay Disciplined
Don’t Panic.
I truly wish you all the best, if you make a fortune and want
to take me to Vegas feel free.
18
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
And finally for those of you who are unsure a quick clarifying
of two terms which will control, your life
Back – when you think something is going to happen
you back it. So backing the draw means you want a
draw
Lay – when you think something is not going to
happen you lay it. So laying the draw means you don’t
want to see a draw.
Good Luck.
\tÇ XÜá~|Çx
Darren Duckworth.
P.S I suggest you read this 2 or 3 times to familiarise your self
with it
FAQ – Updated section inspired by the users of his manual!
I never realised the effect of selling this ebook to a few
people would have and I have met some lovely people
online all of whom are using this to make money. I have
tried below to cover more information and will look to do
this 2 or 3 times a year to provide a better service for you
19
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
all. I have not placed the queries in any particular order
but as they have sprung in my head. Also I apologise if the
English is not great I am no author, I am a TRADER.
Firstly I want to give some statistics from the 2006/2013 season
that has just finished.
English Premier League 380 games played
32 0-0 draws = 8.42%
Spanish La Liga 380 games played
37 0-0 draws = 9.73%
German Bundesliga 306 games played
23 0-0 draws = 7.5%
Italy Ligue 1 380 games played
34 0-0 draws = 8.94%
As you can see I have highlighted the 4 biggest European
Leagues and over 1400 games of football in which a total of
only 8.71% of the games finished 0-0.
This percentage never varies from year to year or league to
league (if anything it is lower, worldwide nearer 6%), I
hear people say “oh Italians they have loads of 0-0 draws”
it is rubbish all the major leagues in the world throw out
the same ratio.
I can tell you the figures for 1-1 draws are similar so a
maximum total of about 17% of games end 0-0 and 1-1. If
the result is 0-0 we lose our money (but we have traded
some out to reduce the loss). If the game is a score draw
we lose if the goals come at an awkward time, so if they
20
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
did that half the time (which is unlikely) that is still only
about 12% losing results. The figures for 2-2 and 3-3 are
negligible and far less likely to be a problem as the trading
out opportunities increase.
So what does the above tell me, it tells me that LONG
TERM and this has become my favourite phrase, I cannot
lose operating this system. In an ideal world I could lay the
draw in every game and leave it and win, but we do not
live in an ideal world as not every game is available and I
need to be able to manage my trades IN-PLAY.
This management has thrown up some scenarios over the
last few months which I need to try and address and simplify
for you telling you what I do in a particular circumstance.
Betfair only put a selection of games IN-PLAY. Obviously in
the autumn, winter and spring months we are in football
season and trading opportunities are rife. In the summer
months opportunities exist but are less apparent.
Betfair do not have the power to put games on the coupon
that they know are going to finish 0-0 or score draws, not
even they are that smart, I have tried to ask them their
criteria for selecting games but met with no response. This
brings me onto my first FAQ
Ian, how do you pick your matches?
This is probably my most asked question. I select matches
based on statistical odds of games I believe will end in a
RESULT. By result I mean a home or away win. Now I am
not a prophet and of course I will get it wrong, but I try and
give myself the best chance of winning that trade.
Because of my betting bank ( I leave £12,000 in Betfair at
the end of each month withdrawing the profit) I can trade
higher stakes on less games, thus getting the odds in my
21
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
favour. I stick by my advice in this manual of trading games
under 4.2 and trading more games when starting out.
However if you are going to trade a game, a little bit of
research into the two teams may help you. It does not take
long on Google to find all the information you need. What
information is relevant? Historical information regarding the
two teams, for some reason this throws up the best
success rate of all. Football teams have bogey teams. As
much as it pains me to say it Spurs could not beat Chelsea
for 20 years and I have made 100% income from games
between these two teams over the last 4 years.
Average goals between the two teams, simply look at the
goals for and goals against in the league table and the
league tables of previous years and see how many goals
the teams averaged per game. For example Spurs play
Chelsea, Spurs have played 20 games and scored 40
goals, they average 2 goals scored per game, Chelsea
have played 20 games and scored 50 goals, they average
2.5 goals a game. A check of the recent games between
the two teams shows me there have been no draws in four
years, I am starting to like my chances of it not being 0-0
and unlikely to be a draw. This is not difficult it is simple
brief research.
Is the team at full strength? A quick check on the clubs
website will tell you if there are any injuries which obviously
would weaken a team.
How many draws have they had away and at home?
I hope this gives you an idea of the process I go through
when picking games. If I am trading a game and therefore
sending it to you via email, you can be assured I have
done that for you. I manually research every game, I do
not use a computer programme. How can that tell me
Groclin in Poland are resting 4 players because they have a
cup final coming up.
22
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
Please be advised the games I send out are the exact
games I trade, I am not responsible for your choices or
losses if these games don’t go our way. I am not personally
kicking the ball. They are the matches I choose
to trade based on MY RESEARCH
For my research I use
www.bbc.co.uk
www.futbol24.com (great for following the games as you trade,
play an audible sound when goals are scored)
www.goalslive.com
All club websites e.g. www.tottenhamhotspur.com
National Football Union Websites e.g www.theFA.com
Any other website that helps such as wikipedia
When do you trade out of a drawing game?
I do not want to sound flash at all I write it as I see it. I am
in a position to take more risks than most. If I lose a trade
I still have a bank behind me so it is absorbed fairly easily
and I know the statistics mean LONG TERM I cannot lose. I
appreciate a lot of you are starting out with small sums of
money and a couple of losses dents your confidence as well
as your bank.
I will trade out of a game at 2.0 if my feeling is it is headed
for a draw. Generally that will be if it is 0-0. Statistics show
that more games that are 0-0 after 70 minutes finish that
way than the other way round. It is easy to get into the
23
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
psychology that there have been no goals so there must be
one before the end. Remember only just over 8% of games
finish 0-0, these are usually drab affairs and if a game is
that way at 70 mins there is a fair chance it will stay that
way.
I will look if it is 0-0 at half time at the scoring records of
the two teams, again more research but does not take
long. How many times have the teams involved scored in
the last 20 minutes. Man Utd and Chelsea are renowned for
late goals. Liverpool on the other hand score very few in
the last part of the game. This is not guesswork it is a
factual representation of how teams play football, Chelsea
and Man Utd will attack if it is 0-0. Liverpool have a more
conservative style of play with a “don’t let a goal in”
attitude first.
However if it is a score draw at 70 minutes I look upon the
game differently. If the game is 1-1 or 2-2 the game has
had goals and statistically it is likely there will be
more. Now in this instance I generally stay in the games –
PLEASE UNDERSTAND THAT IS NOT MY ADVICE TO YOU –
that is the process I operate because I know that if it stays
a draw I can absorb that loss and LONG TERM I cannot
lose. However your approach may be different if you are
bank building and if it goes wrong you do not want to lose
full liability.
So for those of you building your banks if we trade out at
2.0 regardless of 0-0 or a score draw there are still only
17% of games that we lose on and we cut our losses at that
point.
24
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
For an example
You lay £20 at 4.2 your liability is £64 or you win £20 0-0 the
market hits 2.0. You now back the draw for £40.
I back at DOUBLE my stake.
The scenario now is if the game stays 0-0 I have reduced
my liability to £24 so that is my loss
If a team scores and the match ends in a win for one of the
teams, I lose my £40 back bet but WIN my original £20
lay, losing £20 on the game.
Now what happens if we get a run of draws. I have given
this a lot of thought over the last few months and tested
different scenarios including backing at 2.0 with double
stake for 0-0 and single stake for score draws and vice versa
etc.
Here is the best plan I came up with, you may or may not
like it but LONG TERM I consider it to be best. For Elite Club
members when the website is up and running I am going to
operate this method off a bank of £250 and detail it every
day in a blog for you. We will have a little competition to
see if I can be beat.
In all the time I have been trading I have never had four
drawing matches consecutively. I have only had 3 twice.
So the best system in my opinion is a cover to win system.
If I lose a trade, I will increase my stake on the next
trade. So in the example above I lost £24 as it was a
25
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
draw. I will increase my next trade by 50% of that loss. So
the next game I lay at £32.
This gives me this outcome assuming a difficult game again
0-0 market hits 2.0. I back at DOUBLE my lay so at £64
I now have
Lay £32 at 4.2 (note I am using top end figure all the time)
– Liability = £102.40
Back £64 at 2.0 returns £64
Game finishes 0-0 again
I lose my £102.40 liability on the original LAY
I win £64 on the Back bet
Net loss £38.40 plus my original £24 I am £62 down
On the third game I increase my lay by 50% so I now trade
£32 + £31 = £63, and that one wins for us. I have made a
good dent in the money I lost on the first two games. I go
back to £20 and that wins and hey presto I am in profit off
a 50% strike rate.
Now this may sound scary but remember I am taking worst
case scenario in high lay price and 0-0 result. I refer you
back to the statistics of draws which you can check
yourself. (If you find it to scary try 25% it will still limit
those losing games.)
26
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
Now this restricts losses considerably and then when you go
on a winning streak, you make hay. I went 94 games this
year without a 0-0 and 89 games straight last year without
a SINGLE LOSER of any type.
By staking like this you will cover your losses, it is not like
roulette where the next spin could always be the same
colour, each match starts with odds in favour of one team so
you are playing a board with your advantage. I am not
chasing my losses I am systematically covering my trades I
advise this for bank building and obviously if you are trading
higher numbers then the figures involved can get scary and
you may struggle to get your trade matched on Betfair. If
your bank is at this level you can dive out at 2.0 and take
the hit. Like I said I don’t want to sound flash, but I distance
myself emotionally from the money. Of course I don’t like to
lose (who does) but I accept that it happens, trading is what
I do and this goes with the territory. The England and Real
Madrid games in May/June 2013 hurt me massively, not
because I lost but because the goals were in the last minute
of injury time and there is nothing you can do then, it was
not so much the money but the nature of the defeat.
I can only advise that you start at a level you can afford.
No one will ever convince me that this system does not
work, the main reason for failure is gambling money you do
not have which affects you psychologically and letting
emotion affect what you do.
If you do the same thing repeatedly you will win. If you
stake £100 on one game then all of a sudden think “oh
Arsenal must win I will have £300 on this one” then you
will lose, because the big game that you thought had to win
will KICK YOU IN THE BUTT.
My advice is to start the system as above and only increase
you general stake when your bank can accommodate it.
(When the cover to win system gives you a winning game
revert back to your usual stake).
27
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
When do you get out if you are winning?
If the game is 1-0 or 2-0 and the odds are climbing in our
favour I have always had the philosophy of doubling my
Lay price. So if I lay at 4.2 I look to back out at 8.4 or a
bit above. This secures me a nice profit. Again sometimes
it may be 1-0 and I will ride it out to the end that is my
preference to maximise profit and take the full value of my
initial LAY. Again this is something I can do and absorb if it
backfires on me (approx 9% of 1-1 draws worldwide tells
me I will be ok LONG TERM). If you adopt my method
accept you will get hit sometimes otherwise build your
bank by taking profit when it is there. Lots of small
amonts soon become a big amount. I have to add at this
juncture I get a Big Buzz from trading, I don’t get nervous
and really enjoy it, tight games and all. (Kinda sick I
know).
The easiest way to ensure you get your desired profit is to
place your back bet UNMATCHED at the desired odds. On
the place bets screen at Betfair, you can raise the odds to
the level you wish lets say 8.4 and place your back stake
in the box. Click submit and your bet is placed but is
unmatched. This means that nobody has offered to accept
that bet yet, but when they do you will get matched
instantly and your profit secured. This is better than racing
to get the odds when they appear and being beat to it (by
someone like me).
NOTE – if the market suspends all unmatched bets are
automatically cancelled so you need to place them again when
the market resumes.
A useful feature to use when placing bets is the “what if”
feature. This is under the options on the betting screen. It
will show you the affect of your bet when you place it
28
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
before you submit it. It is useful to see how much profit you
would make before committing to a certain price.
What do you do if the underdog team scores first?
I do NOTHING. If a team – whatever team- is leading 1-0 I
am winning my trade. Therefore I leave it, again the
statistics back up that there will be more results go our
way than not so I operate exactly the same. The draw
odds will not rise because the favourite is expected to
equalise so I just sit on it. Many times the favourite will
equalise, but then they will score again, many times the
dog team will hold on, and about 9% of the time it may
end 1-1. Do not panic.
A useful strategy to have in your armoury is one where we
lay the winning team late on in the game.
Lets assume the underdog has scored and at 82 minutes it
is still 0-0.
I layed the draw for £100 at 4.2 so my liability is £320.
The odds at 88 mins are as follows
Favourite/Losing team To BACK 17.0
Draw To BACK 4.1
Underdog/Winning Team To LAY 1.2
I cannot back the draw at a profit at 4.1 as the odds are
not rising because the favourites have all the ball and are
pressing. I am not going to back the losing team at 17
when they need to score 2 goals in 2 minutes. I do
29
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
however have the liability of £320 and the danger of a late
equaliser.
I can LAY the winning team at 1.2 for an amount to reduce
my liability in case of a last minute goal.
So I lay for £300 at 1.2. If the last minute goal comes
hence a draw I have won £300 on the trade I just placed
reducing my liability to only £20. If there is no goal I win
my £100 on my initial Lay and pay out on my losing £300
trade I just placed but only £60. £300 x 0.2 = £60. So I
win £40 if it stays the same. You can do this at 1.1 or
even 1.06. It is not something I do lots of but for the more
nervous types it is a useful weapon to protect you.
Well that is it, if there is anything left out mail it to me and
I can add it on here. The only thing left for me to point out
is mistakes I have spotted as I see them, I am not
criticising what anybody does as it is their own money but
things I note people doing when online with me.
In no particular order
Chasing Losses
Getting emotionally involved with the money side therefore
making bad judgement calls
Waiting for 10 minutes of the game to go so the lay odds
drop causing you to miss games when an early goal is scored.
Depreciating profits by placing other bets such as over/ under
2.5 goals.
Inconsistent staking
Inconsistent trading patterns
As always I assure you of my support and wish you all the best.
30
Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013
Regards
Darren
P.S I suggest you print these pages out and keep them handy.