for immediate relase city councilman and district director to gop congressman david valadao, who...

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PO Box 5978 Beverly Hills, CA 90209 (424) 254-9598 www.californiatargetbook.com

October 9th, 2018

FOR IMMEDIATE RELASE:

Darry Sragow, Publisher; [email protected] Rob Pyers, Research Director, @rpyers, [email protected]

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State and county party committees have spent over $10 million since June 30th in targeted statewide & legislative races. Recent spending offers some additional guidance as to which races are being contested and which ones are being triaged.

Targeted Dem

With Democrats picking up the formerly GOP‐held AD76 seat occupied by Republican Rocky Chavez thanks to a same‐party D vs D runoff and GOP prospects of holding onto Republican Marc Steinorth's AD40 seat fading, Democratic party spending has been focused on the upper chamber. Having lost their supermajority in the state Senate with the June recall of SD29's Josh Newman, the top focus has been on the open SD12 seat being vacated by Republican Anthony Cannella, who is termed out. State and county party committees have contributed over $1.1 million to Democrat Anna Caballero's campaign. SD14, a Central Valley seat occupied by Republican Andy Vidak, is next on the list, with state and local party committees stepping in to bolster Sanger City Councilmember Melissa Hurtado's otherwise anemic fundraising. The county party committees have funneled nearly three quarters of a million dollars to her campaign, making her by far the biggest beneficiary of their largesse. The largely Orange County SD34 seat held by Republican Janet Nguyen ranks third on the Democratic target list, with around $600,000 going to support former Assemblyman Tom Umberg.

On the Assembly side, Democrats have made a priority of defending first‐term incumbent Sabrina Cervantes in AD60, who was outpolled by her GOP opponent Bill Essayli in the June primary. A second Inland Empire seat, the open AD40, has also been a top focus, with Democrats taking no chances and supplementing San Bernardino Supervisor James Ramos' already‐strong fundraising with an additional $470,000 in assistance. Rebecca Bauer‐Kahan, the opponent of perennial target Catharine Baker, a

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moderate Republican and the Bay Area's lone GOP legislator, has received $423,000 in assistance from party committees.

The Democratic focus on flipping a number of GOP‐held congressional seats across the state has factored heavily into the target map, with a number of downballot GOP Assembly seats getting a closer look, including AD72 (around 62% of its voters are in CA48), AD38 (around 81% of its voters are in CA25), and AD74 (69% of its voters are in CA48, the other 31% are in CA45). San Diego's shifting demographics have also landed AD77 (which mostly overlaps the formerly‐competitive CA52 seat held by Democrat Scott Peters), and SD36 (66% of its voters are in CA49) on the list.

Targeted GOP

On the Republican side, the top focus, as with their Democratic counterparts, has been on SD12, which represents the GOP's last line of defense against a Democratic supermajority in the state Senate. State and county party committees have directed a steady stream of spending to Madera Supervisor Rob Poythress' campaign, with close to $1.7 million deployed since June 30th. If recent spending is probative, Republicans have grown bearish on their chances in AD40 (the last recorded CA GOP expenditure on San Bernardino City Councilman Henry Nickel's campaign was a September 14th polling buy). With AD76 lost to a same‐party Democratic runoff and AD40 apparently written off, Republicans would now need to flip four Democratic‐held seats to reverse their supermajority. Republicans' best hope at this stage is to maximize their numbers in the Assembly and rely on peeling off one or two moderate Democrats in the more contentious votes.

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To that end, Republicans have lasered in on flipping two to three Democratic‐held seats. In addition to the aforementioned AD60, Republicans are targeting moderate Democrat Rudy Salas, Jr., with $452,000 in party committee money flowing to Republican Justin Mendes' campaign since June. Mendes is a Hanford City Councilman and district director to GOP congressman David Valadao, who represents over 93% of AD32's voters, and GOP fortunes could get a boost due to national Democratic groups largely taking a flyer on the CA21 race. Republicans have also continued to support former Hawthorne Mayor Frank Scotto, who has received $208,000 from party committees, in his bid to unseat AD66's Al Muratsuchi. Republicans have also made some limited recent expenditures in AD65 on behalf of Alexandria Coronado.

Primarily, though, Republicans have adopted a defensive posture in the runup to the election, with the bulk of the remaining spending focused on shoring up potentially endangered incumbents.

for immediate relase city councilman and district director to gop congressman david valadao, who...

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