Sea Level Rise Sinks Alabama Home Values by More Than $157 Million

FirstStreet.org

For Immediate Release: December 3, 2018

Scientists from First Street Foundation and Columbia University analyzed recent housing market trends in Alabama and found home values lost $157.9 million from 2005 to 2017 due to sea level rise fl ooding. The unincorporated area of Mobile Bay saw the greatest loss at $46.7 million, followed by Gulf Shores at $26.1 million, and Mobile at $25.9 million. Homeowners can use FloodiQ.com to look up their personal home value loss as well as the total loss for their city.

The Alabama analysis expands on the Foundation’s previous research across other states which has been widely covered by The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Axios, The Washington Post, and The Christian Science Monitor.

The research is based on peer reviewed methodology, established by Steven A. McAlpine, Head of Data Science at First Street Foundation, and Dr. Jeremy R. Porter, a Columbia University professor and First Street Foundation statistical consultant. Their original analysis of the Miami-Dade County real estate market, published in the journal Population Research and Policy Review, showed $465 million was lost from 2005 to 2016 due to sea level rise fl ooding. McAlpine and Porter have since created 15 housing market-specifi c models to cover Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, as well as New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Mississippi and Alabama. By analyzing approximately 10 million real estate transactions, and applying the results to 20 million properties, the researchers have found a $14.6 billion loss in home values across ten states.

The Alabama fi ndings come from a study that also analyzed home values in Mississippi. That state lost more than $263 million in value due to sea level rise fl ooding. The Mississippi results have also been integrated into First Street’s Flood iQ tool.

McAlpine and Porter’s research is the fi rst to quantify the observed negative impact of sea level rise on the housing market. Other models have forecasted the future impact of sea level rise fl ooding on coastal properties, but this is the fi rst to demonstrate value loss that has already occurred. By taking into account characteristics associated with home value, such as square footage and proximity to amenities, and accounting for economic trends like the 2008 housing recession, the scientists were able to isolate the impact that increased frequent tidal fl ooding, caused by sea level rise, has had on home value. While some of the aff ected homes did appreciate over the studied period, they did so at a signifi cantly lower rate than comparable homes unaff ected by tidal fl ooding.

“People like living by the water,” said McAlpine. “In Alabama many of the homes experiencing tidal fl ooding are beach homes built on stilts, so there is an expectation of fl ooding to some degree. Still, we are seeing value loss due to the increasing frequency and severity of fl ooding as people look to buy at higher elevations.”

“All signs point to this being an accelerating trend,” said Porter. “As we have expanded our study, the results have been incredibly consistent. Americans across 10 states have lost $14.6 billion from increased fl ooding caused by sea level rise.”

The research is also the fi rst to fi nd that in addition to direct property-lot fl ooding nearby road fl ooding also has a major impact on home value.

“What has made this research truly striking for people is its integration with Flood iQ,” said Matthew Eby, Executive Director of First Street Foundation.” People can look up their personal addresses and learn just how much value they have lost due to sea level rise fl ooding. It’s powerful, and in some cases, devastating.”

First Street Foundation is a 501(c)(3) tech nonprofi t that quantifi es and communicates the impacts of sea level rise and fl ooding.

Flood iQ visualizes your risk of fl ooding today and up to 15 years in the future as sea levels rise.

Carolyn Costello 323.384.7098carolyn@fi rststreet.org

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Alabama Cities With Loss Above $5 Million

Alabama Property Loss by Zip Code

-$30M-$10M

Gulf Shores

Mobile

Dauphin I.

A:Gulf ShoresHighest Annual Tidal Flooding Today

B:Dauphin IslandHighest Annual Tidal Flooding Today

A:Gulf ShoresHighest Annual Tidal Flooding in 15 Years

B:Dauphin IslandHighest Annual Tidal Flooding in 15 Years

Alabama Flooding Will Get Worse with Sea Level Rise

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