for professional investors only – not for public distribution emerging and frontier markets –...

For Professional Investors only – Not for public distribution

Emerging and Frontier markets – The wind of change

28 April 2015

Imre Tajti, Investment Manager, Emerging Market DebtAberdeen Asset Management

2

What happened in 2014?

3

Images we were faced in 2014

Perception of EM declined in 2014

4

But despite all the noise returns were solid in EM

2014 total returns across asset classes (%)

Source: JP Morgan, 31 Dec 14. For illustrative purposes onlyIndies used: US Equities: S&P 500, Frontiers: JPM NEXGEM, US IG Credit: JPM JULI, EM Hard Sov: JPM EMBI GD, US Treasuries: JPM US Treasuries, EM Corporates: JPM CEMBI BD, US High Yield: JPM HY, EM Equities: JPM EM Free, EM Local Sov: JPM GBI-EM GD

EM Local Sov.

EM Equities

US High Yield

EM Corporates

US Treasuries

EM Hard Sov.

US IG Credit

Frontiers

US Equities

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

-5.72%

-1.82%

1.67%

4.96%

6.08%

7.43%

7.99%

10.58%

14.87%

5

Myth and reality - true face of DM and EM fundamentals

6

Growth

Annual GDP growth (%)

Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), Oct 14

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Emerging market and developing economies Advanced economies%

Forecast

7

Demographics

Population growth

Source: Emerging Advisors Group, Nov 14

Population growth (%y/y) EM DM

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

8

Debt dynamics

Total gross public sector debt

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database, Oct 14

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Major advanced economies (G7) Emerging and developing economiesGeneral government gross debt (% of GDP)

Forecast

9

Credit ratings

Number of EM countries rated

Source: Moody’s S&P and Fitch, BNP Paribas, Feb 15

EMBIG index ratings versus spreads

Market cap weighted ratingsSource: Moody’s S&P, Fitch, JP Morgan and BNP Paribas, Feb 15

1990 1994 1998 2002 2007 2015

0

40

80

120

180

200

Moody’s S&P Fitch Weighted average rating EMBIG

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

BBB-

BBB

BB+

BB

BB-

B+

Forecast

10

EM universe – From IG to Frontiers

11

The EMD universe

Total EMD debt stock: USD 9.4trn Size of the EMD market by investment type

Source: JP Morgan, 31 Mar 15

• EMD local debt is nearly three times the value of external debt

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Local Sovereign USD Sovereign USD Corporate

USD Corporate $1,655bn

(18%)

Local Sovereign$6,999bn

(75%)

USD Sovereign$723bn

(8%)

12

Investible EMD universe

Record high corporate issuance continues to fuel the increase in EM market capitalization

Source: JP Morgan, 31 Mar 15EM Corporate = CEMBI Broad, EM Sovereign = EMBI Global, EM Local = GBI-EM Broad Diversified.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

28 35 55 79 123 147 198 159 240 344 419620 716 793 809

185 203 250 271 292 299 295249

342407

457

579586

651 676

116 174249

416525

652

899861

1,111

1,4331,445

1,5351,481

1,574 1,545

EM External Corporates EM External Sovereigns EM Local SovereignsUSD bn

13

Comparison of sovereign indices

Hard Currency1 Hard Currency Investment Grade2

Hard CurrencyFrontiers3

Local Currency4

Market cap. US$676bn US$235bn US$73.1bn US$916bn

Average rating Baa3/BBB- Baa1/BBB B1/B+ Baa2/BBB+

Inv. Grade (%) 60 100 - 85

No. of countries 62 25 31 16

Yield (%) 5.57 4.44 7.00 6.34

Modified duration (years) 7.16 7.71 5.42 4.96

Source: JP Morgan, Aberdeen Asset Management, 31 Mar 151. JPM EMBI Global Diversified Index2. JPM EMBI Global Diversified Investment Grade Index3. JPM NEXGEM Index4. JPM GBI-EM Global Diversified IndexStandard & Poor’s credit ratings are expressed as letter grades that range from “AAA” to “D” to communicate the agency’s opinion of relative level of credit risk. Ratings from ‘AA’ to ‘CCC’ may be modified by the addition of a plus (+) or minus (-) sign to show relative standing within the major rating categories. The investment grade category is a rating from AAA to BBB-

14

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Indonesia

Mexico

Brazil

Russia

15

Mexican operating costs remain one of the lowest in the world

Private Sector Direct Investment (US$ billions)

Mexico (BBB+): Reform will lead to substantial FDI in the coming years

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

10

20

30

40

50

Cumulative global liquids production, mmb/d

Cash costs with royalties

Saudi Arabia Iraq

Mexico China UAE

Canada ex Oilsands UKUS*

Nigeria Russia

Venezuela

Canada Oilsands

$0

0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Operating costs with royalty effects, $/bbl

* $13bn via Inheuser-Busch Inbev’s acquisition of beer company Grupo Modelo. Source: Banamex, Jan 15

* Conventional. Source: Rystad Energy, Morgan Stanley Commodity Research, Dec 14

16

Indonesia (BB+): Phasing out subsidies is key to increased public investment

Capital expenditure Energy subsidies% GDP

4.5%

4.0%

3.5%

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Government budget estimates

Source: CEIC, MOF estimates, media reports, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research estimates, Feb 15

17

Russia (BB+): External balances remain strong

Imports to show strong substitution effect

Source: CBR, VTB Capital Research, Mar 15

External debt breakdown

Source: CBR, VTB Capital Research, Mar 15

Corporates, USD bn

Sovereign, USD bn

Banks, USD bn

Total external debt, % of annual GDP

Quasi-sovereign, USD bn

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

39%

37%

35%

33%

31%

29%

27%

25%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

0

100

200

300

500

600

800

900

700

400

YoY % Disposable income available for non-food spending, USD bn (RHS)

18

Brazil (BBB): Restoring primary fiscal surplus is key to increasing investment

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201715

16

17

18

19

20

21

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

Offical Primary Balance (% GDP) Adjusted Primary Balance (%GDP) Investment (% GDP) (lhs)

Adjusted figures remove all one-off effects from auctions (such as 4G), extraordinary dividends from state-owned banks, Caixa and BNDES and sovereign wealth funds disbursement. 2015 - 17 figures represent Finance Ministry targetsSource: Morgan Stanley, IMF World Economic Outlook, Nov 14

19

Mongolia (B): Through Rio Tinto glasses

Trade balance is improvind despite 20% drop in copper prices since end 2011

Source: Bloomberg, 31 Dec 14. For illustrative purposes only

Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 (2,500)

(2,000)

(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

-

500

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

Chinese Copper Demand from Mongolia (tonnes) Trade Balance (12 month rolling US$mn)

20

Challenges and opportunities within fixed income

21

Developed market bond yields are collapsing

YTM breakdown of JPMorgan GBI

Source: JPMorgan, 28 Feb 15. Figures may not add up to total due to rounding

Between 0% and 1%46.1%


>2%12.4%

<0%7.2

• More than 7% of the index constituents have negative yields

• JPMorgan GBI Global average yield is 0.99%

YTM breakdown of JPMorgan EMU GBI



>2%4.3%

<0%25.3

• More than 25% of the index constituents have negative yields

• JPMorgan EMU GBI average yield is 0.56%

22

EMD valuations stand out

EM LC Sovereign: GBI-EM Global Diversified; EM HC Sovereign: EMBI Global Diversified; EM HC Sovereign IG: EMBI Global Diversified Investment Grade Source: JP Morgan, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, 31 Mar 15. For illustrative purposes only

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

EM Local Currency (BBB+) EM Hard Currency (BBB-)

BofA-Merrill Lynch Global Broad Market Sovereign Index EM HC Sovereign IG

23

Sovereign spreads

JPM EMBI Global Diversified Index Sovereign Spread (bps)

Source: Bloomberg, JP Morgan, Mar 15

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

24

JP Morgan Emerging Markets Currency Index (in Euros)

Exchange rate

Source: JP Morgan, Bloomberg, 13 Apr 15.

Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 1560

65

70

75

80

85

25

The true weight of EM within the world economy

EM share of world GDP (%)

Source: Emerging Advisors Group, Nov 14

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Current dollars Constant 2005 dollars PPP

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

26

EM share of world financial wealth

Share of world financial wealth

Source: Emerging Advisors Group

1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 20130%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Broad money Equity market capitalization Bonds outstanding

27

Institutional flows remain supportive

EM debt flows (US$bn)

Source: IIF, EPRF, Mar 15. For illustrative purposes onlyNote: IIF includes both institutional and retail flows and EPFR is retail only

• Since 2010 there have only been four months of debt outflows from emerging markets

Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50IIF EPFR

28

• EMD valuations are attractive relative to developed markets given the superior long term fundamentals

• While the market expects the US to begin the process of interest rate normalisation in 2015, disinflationary headwinds in Europe and Japan will ensure liquidity conditions remain favourable for EMD

• Policy-makers in India, Indonesia, Mexico and Brazil are likely to carry through with economic reforms in 2015

• Frontier markets offer attractive yields for lower liquidity

• The weakening trend in EM currencies over the last four years will encourage continued improvement in EM trade balances, local EM bond markets offer good diversification benefits

• EM debt has become a mainstream asset class, institutional flows remain supportive

EMD outlook

29

Appendix

30

Our strategies

EMD Plus invests in hard currency sovereign, quasi sovereign and corporate bonds, local currency sovereigns and currenciesPooled fund: Aberdeen Global – Select Emerging Markets Bond Fund ($2,703m)

Aberdeen Global – Select Emerging Markets Investment Grade Bond Fund ($86m)Benchmark: JP Morgan EMBI Global DiversifiedAuM: $5,641m

EMD Local Currency invests primarily in local currency sovereign bonds and currenciesPooled fund: Aberdeen Global – Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond Fund ($331m)Benchmark: JP Morgan GBI-EM Global DiversifiedAuM: $3,689mRegional funds: Aberdeen Global – Brazil Bond Fund ($53m), Aberdeen Global II – Emerging Europe Bond Fund (€24m)

EMD Core invests primarily in hard currency sovereign and quasi sovereign bondsNo pooled fund

Benchmark: JP Morgan EMBI Global DiversifiedAuM: $2,260m

EMD Corporate invests primarily in hard currency corporate bondsPooled fund: Aberdeen Global – Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Fund ($273m)Benchmark: JP Morgan CEMBI Broad DiversifiedAuM: $638m*

Total AuM: $12.5bn

Figures to 28 Feb 15 * $1,704m including off benchmark allocations to EM corporates within our EMD Plus strategy

EMD Frontier invests in hard and local currency sovereigns, quasi-sovereigns and corporate bonds and currencies from frontier markets Pooled fund: Aberdeen Global – Frontier Markets Bond Fund ($105m)Benchmark: JP Morgan NEXGEMAuM: $105m

EMD Total Return invests in sovereign and quasi sovereign (more than 50% government owned) debt and currencies issued by emerging market and develop market countriesPooled fund: Aberdeen Global II – Global Sovereign Opportunities Bond Fund ($97m)Benchmark: Citigroup WGBI USAuM: $162m

31

Performance (Gross)

Sep 01 Apr 02 Nov 02 Jun 03 Jan 04 Aug 04 Mar 05 Oct 05 May 06 Dec 06 Jul 07 Feb 08 Sep 08 Apr 09 Nov 09 Jun 10 Jan 11 Aug 11 Mar 12 Oct 12 May 13 Dec 13 Jul 14 Feb 15

50

150

250

350

450

550

Fund (Gross) JPM EMBI GD USD

Aberdeen Global – Select Emerging Markets Bond FundKey fund facts, 28 Feb 15

%

YTD

Annualised

1 year 3 years 5 years Launch

Fund 1.86 3.65 4.98 8.40 12.32

Benchmark 1.79 6.86 5.37 7.58 9.52

Difference +0.07 -3.20 -0.39 +0.82 +2.80

Risk analysis 3 years

Tracking error 1.98

Information ratio -0.18

Sharpe ratio 0.65

Fund Size US$2.7 billion

Launch date 15 Aug 01

Investment Team Emerging Markets Bond Team

Benchmark JPM EMBI Global Diversified

Number of holdings 137

% in top ten holdings 21.0%

ISIN LU0132414144

Ongoing Charge Figure (OCF) 1.70%

Valoren 4983937

Share class A2 Acc

Fund domicile Luxembourg

Performance (Gross) Key facts

Source: Aberdeen Asset Managers, BPSS, Thomson Reuters Datastream, USD. Benchmark: JPM EMBI Global DiversifiedPerformance is gross of fees and does not reflect advisory fees, had such fees been deducted, returns would have been lower. Past performance is not a guide to future results.

The On-going Charge Figure (OCF), as at 28 Feb 15, is the overall cost shown as a percentage of the value of the assets of the Funds. It is made up of the Annual Management Charge (AMC) of 1.50% and other charges. It does not include any initial charges or the cost of buying and selling stocks for the Funds. The OCF can help you compare the annual operating expenses of different Funds

32

Aberdeen Global - Select Emerging Markets Investment Grade Bond FundKey fund facts, 28 Feb 15

% Annualised

Launch

Fund 1.00

Benchmark 1.44

Difference -0.45

Fund Size US$86 million

Launch date 3 Dec 14


Benchmark JPM EMBI Global Diversified Investment Grade



ISIN LU1124233971


Valoren n/a

Share class I2 Acc



Source: Aberdeen Asset Managers, BPSS, Datastream, USD. Benchmark: JPM EMBI Global Diversified Investment GradePerformance is gross of fees and does not reflect advisory fees, had such fees been deducted, returns would have been lower. Past performance is not indicative of future results.


33

Performance (Gross)

Aberdeen Global – Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond FundKey fund facts, 28 Feb 15

%

YTD

Annualised


Fund -1.45 -5.73 -3.67 -- 0.88

Benchmark -1.34 -5.83 -3.53 -- 1.18

Difference -0.11 0.10 -0.13 -- -0.31


Tracking error 1.07


Sharpe ratio -0.35

Fund Size US$330.7 million

Launch date 6 Apr 10

Investment Team Emerging Markets Debt Team

Benchmark JPM GBI-EM Global Diversified



ISIN LU0396317926

Valoren 4983937


Share class A2 Acc



Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15

90

100

110

120

130

Fund (Gross) JPM GBI-EM GD USD

Source: Aberdeen Asset Managers, BPSS, Thomson Reuters Datastream, USD.Benchmark: JP Morgan GBI-EM Global DiversifiedPerformance is gross of fees and does not reflect advisory fees, had such fees been deducted, returns would have been lower. Past performance is not a guide to future results

The On-going Charge Figure (OCF), as at 28 Feb15, is the overall cost shown as a percentage of the value of the assets of the Funds. It is made up of the Annual Management Charge (AMC) of 1.50% and other charges. It does not include any initial charges or the cost of buying and selling stocks for the Funds. The OCF can help you compare the annual operating expenses of different Funds

34

Performance (Gross)

Aberdeen Global – Emerging Markets Corporate Bond FundKey fund facts, 28 Feb 15

%

YTD

Annualised


Fund 1.56 2.65 5.37 -- 5.85

Benchmark 1.15 4.69 5.29 -- 5.51

Difference 0.41 -2.04 0.08 -- 0.34


Tracking error 1.89

Information ratio 0.07

Sharpe ratio 0.93

Fund Size US$272.6 million

Launch date 30 Dec 10

Investment Team Emerging Markets Debt Team

Benchmark JPM CEMBI Broad Diversified



ISIN LU0566480116

Valoren 12575568


Share class A2 Acc



Source: Aberdeen Asset Managers, BPSS, Thomson Reuters Datastream, USDBenchmark: JP Morgan CEMBI Broad DiversifiedPerformance is gross of fees and does not reflect advisory fees, had such fees been deducted, returns would have been lower. Past performance is not a guide to future results

Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15

90

100

110

120

130

140

Fund (Gross) JPM CEMBI BD USD

The On-going Charge Figure (OCF), as at 28 Feb15, is the overall cost shown as a percentage of the value of the assets of the Funds. It is made up of the Annual Management Charge (AMC) of 1.50% and other charges. It does not include any initial charges or the cost of buying and selling stocks for the Funds. The OCF can help you compare the annual operating expenses of different Funds

35

Key fund facts, 28 Feb 15

%

YTD

Annualised


Fund 0.73 7.48 -- -- 9.02

Benchmark 3.54 12.81 -- -- 13.34

Difference -2.81 -5.33 -- -- -4.32

Risk analysis Since inception

Tracking error 3.79


Sharpe ratio 1.99

Fund Size US$105 million

Launch date 25 Sep 13


Benchmark JPM NEXGEM (for illustrative purposes only)



ISIN LU0963865083

Valoren 22337756


Share class A1 Inc



Aberdeen Global – Frontier Markets Bond Fund

Source: Aberdeen Asset Managers, BPSS, Thomson Reuters Datastream, USDBenchmark: JP Morgan NEXGEMPerformance is gross of fees and does not reflect advisory fees, had such fees been deducted, returns would have been lower. Past performance is not a guide to future results

Performance (Gross)

Sep 13 Oct 13 Nov 13 Dec 13 Jan 14 Feb 14 Mar 14 Apr 14 May 14 Jun 14 Jul 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15

90

100

110

120

130

Fund (Gross) JPM NEXGEM


36

Performance (gross)

Aberdeen Global II – Global Sovereign Opportunities Bond FundKey fund facts, 28 Feb 15


Tracking error 4.11

Information ratio 0.89

Sharpe ratio 1.22

Fund Size $96.9 million

Launch date 28 Feb 94


Benchmark 100% Citigroup WGBI United States



ISIN LU0304256422

Bloomberg DFIEMFA LX


Share class I-1 Inc



Source: Aberdeen Asset Managers, BPSS, Thomson Reuters Datastream, USDBenchmark: 100% Citigroup WGBI United StatesPerformance is gross of fees and does not reflect advisory fees, had such fees been deducted, returns would have been lower. Past performance is not a guide to future results.

%

YTD

Annualised


Fund 1.96 4.65 5.53 7.80 10.46

Benchmark 0.99 4.32 1.80 3.66 6.86

Difference +0.97 +0.33 +3.73 +4.14 +3.59

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Fund (Gross) 100% Citigroup WGBI United States

The On-going Charge Figure (OCF), as at 31 Jan 15, is the overall cost shown as a percentage of the value of the assets of the Funds. It is made up of the Annual Management Charge (AMC) of 1.00% and other charges. It does not include any initial charges or the cost of buying and selling stocks for the Funds. The OCF can help you compare the annual operating expenses of different Funds

37

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for professional investors only – not for public distribution emerging and frontier markets –...

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