Forecast & Backcast of the 2000 Forecast & Backcast of the 2000 Emission Inventory Emission Inventory

for thefor theLower Fraser Valley AirshedLower Fraser Valley Airshed

Presentation to GB/PS Research ConferencePresentation to GB/PS Research Conference

John Newhook / Derek JennejohnJohn Newhook / Derek Jennejohn

April 1, 2003April 1, 2003

Why do we doWhy do we do Emission Inventories & Forecasts? Emission Inventories & Forecasts?

Air Quality Management is mandated to Air Quality Management is mandated to GVRD by the GVRD by the BC Waste Management ActBC Waste Management Act

Tells us where we have been (progress Tells us where we have been (progress evaluation), and where we are heading evaluation), and where we are heading

Identifies Major Sources -- AQ GoalsIdentifies Major Sources -- AQ Goals Used by AQ Modellers at Environment Used by AQ Modellers at Environment

Canada to forecast future Air QualityCanada to forecast future Air Quality Fundamental basis for an updated AQMPFundamental basis for an updated AQMP

Lower Fraser Valley AirshedLower Fraser Valley Airshed

Carbon Monoxide (CO) Emissions

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Em

issi

on

s (1

000

ton

nes

/ y

ear)

LFV Total

GVRD

Whatcom County

FVRD

Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Emissions

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Em

issi

on

s (1

000

ton

nes

/ y

ear)

LFV Total

GVRD

Whatcom County

FVRD

Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) Emissions

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Em

issi

on

s (1

000

ton

nes

/ y

ear)

LFV Total

GVRD

Whatcom County

FVRD

Sulphur Oxides (SOx) Emissions

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Em

issi

on

s (1

000

ton

nes

/ y

ear)

LFV Total

GVRD

Whatcom County

FVRD

PM2.5 Emissions(including road dust)

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Em

issi

on

s (1

000

ton

nes

/ y

ear)

LFV Total

GVRD Total

Whatcom County Total

FVRD Total

Ammonia (NH3) Emissions

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Em

issi

on

s (1

000

ton

nes

/ y

ear)

LFV Total

GVRD

Whatcom County

FVRD

““Smog-Forming Pollutants”Smog-Forming Pollutants”

8 Common Air Contaminants inventoried8 Common Air Contaminants inventoried For simplification, we added together 5 air For simplification, we added together 5 air

contaminants which contribute to ozone and contaminants which contribute to ozone and fine particulate matter formation, and to fine particulate matter formation, and to visibility impairment - SMOG.visibility impairment - SMOG.

NONOXX, SO, SOXX, VOC, PM, VOC, PM2.52.5, and NH, and NH33

Smog-Forming Pollutant Emissions by Region

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50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Em

issi

on

s (1

000

ton

nes

/ y

ear)

LFV Total

GVRD

Whatcom County

FVRD

Top 5 Smog-Forming Emission Sources

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5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Em

issi

on

s (1

000

ton

nes

/ y

ear)

Light-Duty Vehicles

Marine

Other Nonroad Equipment

Agricultural

Solvent Evaporation

Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions by Region

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Em

issi

on

s (1

000

ton

nes

/ y

ear)

LFV Total

GVRD

Whatcom County

FVRD

Top 3 Greenhouse Gas Emission Sources

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Em

issi

on

s (1

000

ton

nes

/ y

ear)

Light-Duty Vehicles

Space Heating

Electric Power Generation

Notes & ObservationsNotes & Observations

Forecast looks different than previous (1995) Forecast looks different than previous (1995) version – a little more “flat”version – a little more “flat”

Forecast does not incorporate any proposed Forecast does not incorporate any proposed measures, only those that are finalmeasures, only those that are final– Proposed federal measures to reduce nonroad and Proposed federal measures to reduce nonroad and

solvent emissions not includedsolvent emissions not included– Could include in future updateCould include in future update

Other potential emission sources not included Other potential emission sources not included here, for examplehere, for example– Sumas2, BP Cherry Point, IntalcoSumas2, BP Cherry Point, Intalco

ConclusionsConclusions

After initial decline, “Smog Forming Pollutants” After initial decline, “Smog Forming Pollutants” expected to increase after 2015expected to increase after 2015

Marine sources, followed by agriculture are Top 2 Marine sources, followed by agriculture are Top 2 “SFP” emitters after 2015“SFP” emitters after 2015

Important to ascertain the importance of NH3 in Important to ascertain the importance of NH3 in secondary PM formation – limiting reagent?secondary PM formation – limiting reagent?

GHG increasing steadily from 1990 to 42% above GHG increasing steadily from 1990 to 42% above 1990 by 2010 in GVRD/FVRD1990 by 2010 in GVRD/FVRD

Can’t be complacent – CWS & KyotoCan’t be complacent – CWS & Kyoto

Next StepsNext Steps

Forecast could be updated following:Forecast could be updated following:– Release of “Canadianized” MOBILE6 ModelRelease of “Canadianized” MOBILE6 Model– EPA release of new NONROAD model EPA release of new NONROAD model – Work with marine sector to better define activity Work with marine sector to better define activity

and emissionsand emissions– Other methodology changes, regulatory activityOther methodology changes, regulatory activity

Phase 2 Forecast could address:Phase 2 Forecast could address:– Proposed Regulations (federal, regional)Proposed Regulations (federal, regional)– Other emission reduction measuresOther emission reduction measures

Next Steps (cont’d)Next Steps (cont’d)

Forecast used by AQ modellers at Forecast used by AQ modellers at Environment Canada to forecast future air Environment Canada to forecast future air qualityquality

Continue active participation in Georgia Continue active participation in Georgia Basin / Puget Sound International Airshed Basin / Puget Sound International Airshed PartnershipPartnership

Develop Workplan for development of a new Develop Workplan for development of a new AQMPAQMP

The EndThe End

Any Questions?Any Questions?