forecast the future - ethfansupyun-assets.ethfans.org/uploads/doc/file/3fd1e45... · fund sport...
TRANSCRIPT
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forecast the future
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Why? - building blocks
• building blocks like Identity, reputation, exchange, auctions, registry
• economic building blocks • interface into real world through
economic incentives • prediction markets
Identity
….
Registry
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BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT (HOLDS COLLATERAL UNTIL ONE OF THE
OUTCOME TOKENS IS REDEEMABLE FOR THE COLLATERAL)
Oracle
COLLATERAL TOKEN
TOKEN OUTCOME 1
TOKEN OUTCOME 2
TOKEN OUTCOME N
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basic - functions• Put in n collateral -> create n of each outcome token
buy_all_outcomes() • Value of one outcome token always <= collateral (1)
• Redeem a full set of outcome tokens for the collateralredeem_all_outcomes() • value of complete basket is always 1
• Redeem winning outcome (only if oracle has set it)redeem_winning _outcome() • if resolved: winning outcome token = collateral • all others = value 0
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Buy/ sell information – remove uncertainty
• price = forecast • fund automated market maker to have a price • creates an algorithmic order book • every trade will move the price • always a clear price (0 spread between buy and sell) • direct financial incentive to trade if you disagree with the
forecast (price)
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BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT (HOLDS COLLATERAL UNTIL ON OF THE
OUTCOME TOKENS IS REDEEMABLE FOR THE COLLATERAL)
When will Casper go live?
COLLATERAL TOKEN
before Q2 2017
Q2-3 2017
after Q2 2017
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Creating an incentive – setting up a bounty
• Create an event on something you want to happen • sell/send/auction of tokens to those who can make it happen
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BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT “Bitlicense” changed
in NY in 2017
COLLATERAL TOKEN
YES NO
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Hedging – insure yourself
• insurances = bets (fire insurance = bet that your house will burn down) • predict/bet on the event you want to hedge against
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BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT Is the flight too late?
COLLATERAL (100)
YES (100) NO (100)
INSURANCE PREMIUM (10)
POTENTIAL PAYOUT (90)
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Hedging – Challenges
• need to fully collateralise • no insurance in the world can cover ALL potential claims • building trustless systems is (relatively) easy with unlimited
capital • -> use basket of “no outcomes” as collateral
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Collateral Basket
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT Earthquake in SF
COLLATERAL (100)
NO Earthquake in India
NO Flood in Netherlands
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Collateral Basket
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT Earthquake in SF
COLLATERAL (100)
NO Earthquake in India
NO Flood in Netherlands NO Flood in SF
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Collaterals in basket needs to be independent
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BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT Will the price of ETH be 0
ETH
YES NO
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dependencies
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT Oracle
COLLA
TOKEN TOKEN
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
TOKEN
TOKEN TOKEN
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BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT Event A
COLLA
A 1 A 2
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
B1 B2 B1 B2
dependencies
Event BBASIC TOKEN
CONTRACT
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A 1 A 2
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
B1 B2 B1 B2
Event BBASIC TOKEN
CONTRACT
• if independent B1A1/B2A1 = B1A2/B2A2 • no insurance in the world can cover ALL potential claims • -> use basket of “no outcomes” as collateral
B1A1 B2A1 B1A2 B2A2
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BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
Sun will shine tomorrow
COLLA
YES NO
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
YES NO YES NO
dependencies
Price of ETH> $20BASIC TOKEN
CONTRACT
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BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
POLONIEX hacked
COLLA
YES NO
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
YES NO YES NO
dependencies
Price of ETH> $20BASIC TOKEN
CONTRACT
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To Govern – Futarchy
• framework for decentralized governance (of DAOs) • continuous market on an objective of the DAO • anyone can submit proposal • market will decide whether or not it gets more likely to achieve
the objective under the condition that the proposal is implemented • if so -> automatically implement the proposal
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BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
Gnosis platform volume > x
COLLA
YES NO
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
YES NO YES NO
Futarchy for the Gnosis Fund
Fund sport betting interface
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
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Roadmap to – Futarchy
• measure how well forecasts for objectives perform • measure how well conditional forecasts perform • add incentives to manipulate • as soon as the Gnosis security audit is done we will start those
experiments
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BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
Win the Game?
COLLA
YES NO
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
move 1 move n
Can we challenge Alpha Go?
move 2
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
move 1 move n move 2
next move?
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Meet us tonight for drinks
WeChat QR code slack.gnosis.pm