PowerPoint Presentation

Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs): Overview, Plans and Early Impressions of a ProposedHigh-Impact Weather Forecasting ParadigmLans P. Rothfusz, Travis M. Smith, Christopher Karstens, Greg Stumpf, Russell Schneider, and David Novak

NWA Conference 2015FACETs and NWA Conferences2013 FACETs, the idea.2014 FACETs, the plan (yawn).2015 FACETs, beginning execution of the plan. (Here we go!)

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FACETs Is...A proposed reinvention of NOAAs current teletype-era, deterministic (binary), product-centric paradigm.Borne out of NSSL/CIMMS research and Weather Ready Nation activities.Focused on entire forecast/warning process.

FACETs Is...A continuous stream of calibrated, high-res, probabilistic hazard information (PHI) extending from days to within minutes of event - for all Environmental Threats.4

Adapted from Lazrus (NCAR)TimeSpaceInformation ContinuumThe PHI ContinuumExample of the envisioned PHI continuum spanning the temporal/spatial scales from national centers to local offices.

5The delivery mechanism for emerging convective class models and tools - and their resulting probabilistic guidance (e.g., Warn on Forecast).FACETs Is...

Rotation track prediction Valid: 2100-2315 UTC)Probability

~40 min lead time?Tornado starts: 2143 UTC

Multimedia, multi-point enabling.

FACETs Is

FACETs Is...Optimized for user-specific decision-making through comprehensive integration of social/behavioral/economic sciences.A framework to focus R&D activities.

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There is a Plan...June 2014 Workshop: How do we get from current system to FACETs?

46 distinct projects identified!16 physical science14 software development 23 social/behavioral/economic scienceScience and Strategic Implementation Plan (SSIP) created.

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Probability of What? ProjectUSWRP 3-year funding.11 multi-disciplinary sub-projects.Addresses early phases of the FACETs SSIP.Conveyance of uncertainty through calibrated, model-derived, PHI for severe convective phenomena, including flash flooding.GoalsAccelerate transition of PHI to ops (SPC and WPC) by 2018.The NOAA-NWS Storm Prediction Center: Future Plans and Challenges in Pursuit of a Weather Ready Nation (Schneider et al.) Plenary IVSet stage for PHI in NWS local offices & Americas Weather Industry partners.

10PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & VerificationPHI GuidanceA1Event DefinitionA2Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC)A3Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC)A4MYRORSSB1PHI Prototype Web ToolB2Pro-FLASHB3Hazard ServicesB5PHI VerificationB4Forecaster Use of PHIEnd UsersC1Baseline of User Responsiveness to UncertaintyC2User Interpretation of and Response to PHIProbability of What? Project11A1: Event Definition Across a Wide Range of Scales (NSSL, SPC, WPC)Definition of the event consistently across space and time scales (convective outlook scale down to the proposed warning scales associated with Warn-on-Forecast).

PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & VerificationPHI Guidance InfoA1Event DefinitionA2Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC)A3Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC)A4MYRORSSB1PHI Prototype Web ToolB2Pro-FLASHB3Hazard ServicesB5PHI VerificationB4Forecaster Use of PHIEnd UsersC1Baseline of User Responsiveness to UncertaintyC2User Interpretation of and Response to PHIProbability of What? Project12A2: Calibrated probabilistic guidance for severe weather hazards (SPC)Develop/Refine calibrated guidance for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds during the Day 1 period from the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system & the SPC Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity (SSEO).

PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & VerificationPHI Guidance InfoA1Event DefinitionA2Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC)A3Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC)A4MYRORSSB1PHI Prototype Web ToolB2Pro-FLASHB3Hazard ServicesB5PHI VerificationB4Forecaster Use of PHIEnd UsersC1Baseline of User Responsiveness to UncertaintyC2User Interpretation of and Response to PHIProbability of What? Project13A3: Calibrated probabilistic guidance for flash flood hazards (WPC)WPC will redefine the Extended Rainfall Outlook as the (calibrated) probability of flash flooding within 40 km of a point. Early exploration of Hazard Services use for heavy rainfall will also be pursued.PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & VerificationPHI Guidance InfoA1Event DefinitionA2Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC)A3Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC)A4MYRORSSB1PHI Prototype Web ToolB2Pro-FLASHB3Hazard ServicesB5PHI VerificationB4Forecaster Use of PHIEnd UsersC1Baseline of User Responsiveness to UncertaintyC2User Interpretation of and Response to PHIProbability of What? Project14A4: High-resolution guidance from MYRORSS (CIMMS, NSSL)Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely-Sensed Storms (MYRORSS): A 15+ year reanalysis of WSR-88D and environment data resulting in distributions of storm behavior probabilities.

PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & VerificationPHI Guidance InfoA1Event DefinitionA2Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC)A3Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC)A4MYRORSSB1PHI Prototype Web ToolB2Pro-FLASHB3Hazard ServicesB5PHI VerificationB4Forecaster Use of PHIEnd UsersC1Baseline of User Responsiveness to UncertaintyC2User Interpretation of and Response to PHIProbability of What? Project15B1: PHI prototype tool rapid-prototyping improvements (CIMMS, NSSL)Rapid prototyping of forecaster interface for generating PHI and sharing hazard grids based on interrogation of observations and numerical model output.PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & VerificationPHI Guidance InfoA1Event DefinitionA2Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC)A3Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC)A4MYRORSSB1PHI Prototype Web ToolB2Pro-FLASHB3Hazard ServicesB5PHI VerificationB4Forecaster Use of PHIEnd UsersC1Baseline of User Responsiveness to UncertaintyC2User Interpretation of and Response to PHIProbability of What? Project16B2: Pro-FLASH (NSSL, CIMMS)A hydrologic component for PHI related to flash floods and floods, based on the Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) projectPHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & VerificationPHI Guidance InfoA1Event DefinitionA2Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC)A3Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC)A4MYRORSSB1PHI Prototype Web ToolB2Pro-FLASHB3Hazard ServicesB5PHI VerificationB4Forecaster Use of PHIEnd UsersC1Baseline of User Responsiveness to UncertaintyC2User Interpretation of and Response to PHIProbability of What? Project17B3: PHI in Hazard Services (GSD, NSSL, CIMMS)The AWIPS-II Hazard Services built to create PHI for severe convective phenomena and lay the groundwork for probabilistic flash flood guidance (using pro-FLASH).PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & VerificationPHI Guidance InfoA1Event DefinitionA2Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC)A3Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC)A4MYRORSSB1PHI Prototype Web ToolB2Pro-FLASHB3Hazard ServicesB5PHI VerificationB4Forecaster Use of PHIEnd UsersC1Baseline of User Responsiveness to UncertaintyC2User Interpretation of and Response to PHIProbability of What? Project18B4: Understanding forecasters formulation of PHI (U. Akron, NSSL, CIMMS)Human factors researchers identify areas of PHI Prototype Tool improvement.

PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & VerificationPHI Guidance InfoA1Event DefinitionA2Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC)A3Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC)A4MYRORSSB1PHI Prototype Web ToolB2Pro-FLASHB3Hazard ServicesB5PHI VerificationB4Forecaster Use of PHIEnd UsersC1Baseline of User Responsiveness to UncertaintyC2User Interpretation of and Response to PHIProbability of What? Project19B5: Verification of high-resolution probabilistic severe weather guidance (MDL, GSD)A gridded warning verification system will be designed and tested to provide more meaningful measures of the goodness of severe weather warnings.

PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & VerificationPHI Guidance InfoA1Event DefinitionA2Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC)A3Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC)A4MYRORSSB1PHI Prototype Web ToolB2Pro-FLASHB3Hazard ServicesB5PHI VerificationB4Forecaster Use of PHIEnd UsersC1Baseline of User Responsiveness to UncertaintyC2User Interpretation of and Response to PHIProbability of What? Project20C1: Baseline of Public Responsiveness to Uncertainty in Forecasts (OU/CRCM, NSSL)Establishment of an independent , scientifically-defensible baseline (benchmark) measure of public responsiveness to NWS warnings, watches, and advisories under the current paradigm. A system for regular (social science) evaluations thereafter.

PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & VerificationPHI Guidance InfoA1Event DefinitionA2Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC)A3Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC)A4MYRORSSB1PHI Prototype Web ToolB2Pro-FLASHB3Hazard ServicesB5PHI VerificationB4Forecaster Use of PHIEnd UsersC1Baseline of User Responsiveness to UncertaintyC2User Interpretation of and Response to PHIProbability of What? Project21C2: Users Interpretation, Decision Making, and Response to PHI Presentation Formats (U. Akron, CIMMS, NSSL)Human factors research to understand human interpretation of and response to PHI in guiding their weather decision making.FACETs-Related PresentationsBuilding a Database of Flash Flood Observations Using Twitter(Smith et al.) Poster AP-58Emergency Manager Severe Weather Information Needs and Use of Experimental Warning Information(LaDue et al.) Concurrent II: Social ScienceDecision-Making with Automated Probabilistic Guidance in the 2015 Hazardous Weather Testbed Probabilistic Hazard Information Experiment(Karstens et al.) - Plenary IIINew Tools for Flash Flood Forecasting in the National Weather Service(Gourley et al.) Plenary VIITowards Hazard Services Recommenders for Flash Flood Forecasting(Clark et al.) Poster BP-17.Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Estimates with Ground-based Radar Networks (Kirstetter et al.) Poster CP-27.New Verification Techniques for FACETs: What Do False Alarm Area and Lead Time Really Mean in the Realm of Probabilistic Hazard Information?(Stumpf et al.) - Poster CP-52Probabilistic Hazard Information Processing System (PHIPS): Rapid Generation and Blending of Probabilistic Forecasts for Severe Convective Hazards(Karstens et al.) - Poster CP-24

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SummaryFACETs: An over-arching reinvention of NOAAs hazardous weather forecasting paradigm has begun.3-yr R&D Project for R2O (to SPC and WPC) underway.11 multi-disciplinary projects.lans.rothfusz@noaa.gov23