forecasting and statistical analysis
TRANSCRIPT
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@ytrohg Rhjfeypio
Kogha Thtcr
KOG 0>4
Kfrc`hpzogl hgj Pzhzopzo`ha Hghaypop
O bcaoc{c pzhzopzo`ha hghaypop fk thpz tcrkfrehg`c! og ehiogl h msjlecgz fg |nczncr zf
ehic hgj og{cpzecgz fr gfz! op znc ftzoeha hgj efpz ckkc`zo{c |hy zf kfrc`hpz h `fethgy‟p
kszsrc tcrkfrehg`c' Hgj O hapf bcaoc{c znhz znop |hp hapf znc fg`aspofg fk Gfbca Tro}c |oggogl
Jhgoca Nhngcehgg! og nop bffi Znogiogl! Khpz hgj Paf|' Haznfsln nop pzsjocp |crc efrc
kf`spcj fg ptc`oko`p fk nsehg bcnh{ofr! troehroay znrfsln `flgozo{c bohpcp! znc z|f ojcfaflocp
lf nhgj og nhgj' Og{cpzecgz jc`opofgp hrc ehjc by nsehgp! hgj pf oz‟p khor zf `fgpojcr nsehg
bcnh{ofrp og sgjcrpzhgjogl |ny fr |ny gfz h jc`opofg op ehjc'
\ny |fsaj fgc |hgz zf kfrc`hpz h `fethgy‟p kszsrc tcrkfrehg`c og znc korpz tah`c6
Pog`c znop op h Koghg`c `ahpp! znc bcpz hgp|cr |fsaj bc zf kolsrc fsz znc bcpz |hy kfr znhz bspogcpp
zf bc`fec trfkozhbac' Zncfrczo`haay! znc trceopc fk hgy bspogcpp op zf ehic hp es`n efgcy hp
tfppobac! hgj pf by kfrc`hpzogl nf| es`n efgcy h `fethgy |oaa ehic og znc kszsrc! fgc `hg
ehic znc httrftrohzc `nhglcp zf cgpsrc znhz gsebcr pzhyp st zncrc'
Znhz‟p |ny fgc |fsaj! fr pnfsaj kfrc`hpz' Bsz zncrc hrc pf ehgy fzncr kh`zfrp znhz `fec
ogzf tahy |ncg og{cpzogl! ehghlogl! fr rsggogl h bspogcpp' Zncrc op gc{cr h rolnz fr |rfgl
hgp|cr' Oz‟p ecrcay `nhglcp og ftogofgp! znc ftogofgp fk eoaaofgp fk tcftac hrfsgj znc |fraj'
Hgj znhz‟p |nhz ehicp og{cpzogl hgj ehghlogl h bspogcpp nhaacglogl' C{cryfgc |hgzp zf bc
rolnz! hgj c{cryfgc nhp zncor rchpfg kfr |ny zncy znogi h `crzhog |hy' Zncy hppolg {hascp zf
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jokkcrcgz hptc`zp fk zncor jc`opofg hgj zncg `fec fsz |ozn h {hasc' Hgj znhz ojcfafly op |ncrc
Ihngcehg‟p pzsjy ncatp trf{c znhz pzhzopzo`ha hghaypop op znc bcpz echpsrc fk og{cpzecgz ehiogl'
Znc bffi,p `cgzrha zncpop op hrlsecgzp kfr z|f efjcp fk znfslnz= Pypzce 8! khpz!
ogpzog`zo{c hgj cefzofgha znogiogl' Hgj Pypzce 2! h paf|cr! jcaobcrhzo{c! hgj efrc aflo`ha |hy
fk znogiogl' Znc 2 efjcp fk znfslnz hrc trcpcgz og hgy jc`opofg |c ehic' Kfr c~hetac! ok O phy
Cgrfg' Fgc ehy xso`iay rspn zf msjlecgz og rcecebcrogl h gc|p pzfry zncy nchrj! znc Pypzce
8 |hy fk znogiogl' \noac znc efrc httrftrohzc rcptfgpc op znhz fk h paf|cr efrc aflo`ha
httrfh`n' Cgrfg…|ny ycp! zncor kfrc`hpzp |crc ogkahzcj! zncor tr fmc`zofgp |crc ogh``srhzc9 zncor
Koghg`ohap |crc |rfgl! zncor rc{cgscp jc`aogogl! hgj pf fg' By affiogl hz znc thpz tcrkfrehg`c!
fr efrc pf! znc ptc`oko` og`rchpcp fr jc`rchpcp og jokkcrcgz `nhggcap fk znc bspogcpp! yfs nh{c
efrc kh`z og jczcreogogl yfsr jc`opofg'
Bsz znop lfcp bfzn |hyp' @fethgocp! hgj efrc oetfrzhgzay Pzf`i Tro`cp! `hg bc ogkahzcj
ecrcay by Pypzce 8 aflo`! znc khpzcr hgj efrc cefzofgha |hy fk znogiogl' Ok Httac phyp zncy
|oaa rcachpc h gc| trfjs`z! tcftac |oaa rspn og zf bsy pnhrcp! ecrcay fg ogpzog`zo{c oetsapc' Zncy
eolnz bc rolnz! poetay fg hg oetsapc msjlecgz fr znc znfslnz fk! O nh{c hg Othj! hgj O af{c oz! pf
znop gc| Othj espz bc hp lffj' Znhz hafgc op cgfsln fk h rchpfg kfr pfecfgc zf ehic hg
og{cpzecgz' Og h |hy! zncor jc`opofg |hp ehjc |ozn pzhzopzo`ha hghaypop! og h {cry brfhj pcgpc'
Znc jczhoa fk znc hghaypop `fecp jf|g zf znc oetfrzhg`c fk znc og{cpzecgz'
Ihngcehg ehicp hgfzncr {cry lffj tfogz znrfsln nop Trfptc`z Zncfry! |no`n zocp efrc
`afpcay ogzf |nyp pzhzopzo`ha hghaypop! znc |hy |c `f{crcj og `ahpp! op h bczzcr echpsrc fk kszsrc
tcrkfrehg`c' Hp hg og{cpzfr |c |hgz zf jcro{c |nczncr h bspogcpp nhp h tfpozo{c Gcz Trcpcgz
[hasc' Jfcp znc {hasc fk znc `fethgy fsz|coln znc `fpzp! og fsr hghaypop6 Znhz jctcgjp lrchzay
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fg nf| |c {hasc znc bspogcpp' \no`n op hapf h {cry {hrohbac gsebcr! jctcgjogl fg |nhz kh`zp!
eyznp! hgj trcjo`zofgp znhz hrc hjjcj ogzf jczcreogogl znhz G[T' Znc zncfry ehicp h aflo`ha
hppsetzofg znhz tcftac‟p trcjo zofgp! hgj {hascp! `nhglc hp zf znc `fgzc~z fk znc {hashzofg' Nc
`ahoecj znhz tcftac hrc efrc aoicay zf h{foj afppcp znhg zf h`noc{c lhogp! hgj pf h lrchzcr {hasc
op hppolgcj zf h `nhglc og trfbhbay kfr hg og{cpzecgz yocajogl h gclhzo{c lrf|zn krfe 4# zf %
84#! znhg tfpozo{c lrf|zn krfe ?4# zf 844#' Znop ncatp psttfrz znc GT[ {hashzofg ecznfj hp
bcogl efrc ckkc`zo{c' Znc GT[ {hashzofg ecznfj tah`cp c~zrcec oetfrzhg`c fg znc .R/ ropi
tfrzofg fk znc cxshzofg' Ehiogl h `frrc`z hppsetzofg fg ropi op znc efpz oetfrzhgz thrz fk
ehiogl h pfaoj kfrc`hpz' Znop og hjjozofg zf h pfaoj |hy fk jczcreogogl Kszsrc @hpn Kaf|p! efpz
aoicay znrfsln c~tc`zcj lrf|zn! efgznay rczsrgp! `nhglcp og `fpzp! hgj tfrzofg fk ehricz pnhrc'
Haa fk |no`n `nhglc krfe tcrpfg zf tcrpfg'
Hp yfs pzhzcj og `ahpp fgc jhy! zncrc |hp fg`c h `hpc pzsjy zhicg! |ncrc nsgjrcjp fk
jokkcrcgz og{cpzecgz bhgip lh{c hghaypop fg znc phec jhzh! hgj jcro{cj cpzoehzcp znhz jokkcrcj
c~zrcecay! st zf h 04# jokkcrcg`c og kfrc`hpzp' Zncy ehy nh{c bccg spogl znc phec GT[
kfresah! hgj poeoahr Kszsrc @hpn Kaf| trfmc`zofgp! bsz zncy ch`n joj zncor f|g msjlecgzp hgj
znfslnzp ogzcrz|ogcj ogzf zncor trfmc`zofgp' Ehybc pfec {hascj fgc ropi nolncr znhg znc fzncr! fr
{hascj h tahgz efrc znhg znc gc~z! cozncr |hy zncy nhj h pfaoj rchpfg kfr zncor gsebcrp' Gf fgc
|oaa c{cr bc rolnz! bsz oz pnfsaj bc hlrccj stfg znhz pzhzopzo`p hghaypop op znc bcpz |hy zf rcef{c
cgfsln fk znc kaskk zf ncat bczzcr h jc`opofg' Znc kszsrc op ecrcay h rctchz fk |nhz nhp nhttcgcj
og znc thpz! |ozn {hrohzofgp! bsz ok znfpc {hrohzofgp `hg bc h``fsgzcj kfr rchpfghbay zncg zncrc op
gf bczzcr |hy zf hppsec kszsrc tcrkfrehg`c! fr bczzcr httrfh`n znc lhec fk og{cpzogl'