forecasting demand for services
DESCRIPTION
Forecasting Demand for Services. Learning Objectives. Recommend the appropriate forecasting model for a given situation. Conduct a Delphi forecasting exercise. Describe the features of exponential smoothing. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Forecasting Forecasting Demand for Demand for
ServicesServices
2
Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives Recommend the appropriate Recommend the appropriate
forecasting model for a given situation.forecasting model for a given situation. Conduct a Delphi forecasting exercise.Conduct a Delphi forecasting exercise. Describe the features of exponential Describe the features of exponential
smoothing.smoothing. Conduct time series forecasting using Conduct time series forecasting using
exponential smoothing with trend and exponential smoothing with trend and seasonal adjustments.seasonal adjustments.
3
Delphi Forecasting Delphi Forecasting ExerciseExercise
In what future election In what future election will a woman become will a woman become
President of the United President of the United States?States?
4
Year 1st Round 2nd Round Final Round
2004
2012 22
2016 44 2
2020 2 2 2
2024 3 2 2
2028 3 4 2
2032 2 3 4
2036 2 3 4
2040 2 2 4
2044 3 4 3
Never 1 2 3
5
Delphi MethodDelphi MethodNuclear Power Industry Nuclear Power Industry
ExampleExample11 66 55 66 1515 3535 66
No No jdgmt.jdgmt.
StrongStrongly ly
disagr.disagr.
DisagrDisagr..
Disagr. Disagr. SomewSomew
h.h.
UncertUncert..
Agree Agree somewsomew
h.h.
AgreeAgree StrongStrongly ly
agreeagree
RounRound 1d 1
RounRound 2d 2
RounRound 3d 3
6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86
Series1
Historical Analogy
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Series1
Series2