forecasting on employment trend in the digital age and the...
TRANSCRIPT
Forecasting on Employment trend in the digital age and the role of PES (session III.)
„The most common occupations in the labour market and their changing under the impacts of the digital age – The role
of PES”
Hue City, Socialist Republic of Vietnam 24 - 25 July 2018
BORBÉLY-PECZE, Tibor Bors, Dr. habil.Senior Policy Adviser, Hungary
New Age
MEGA TRENDS • Disruptive technologies (Christensen, 1995)• Automation• Artificial intelligence• The gig/platform economy• Ageing (EU) vs. huge number of youth
Old - new fears
The Victorian Belief That a Train Ride Could Cause Instant Insanity (1865)
„the railway madness”
Source: https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/railway-madness-victorian-trains
A type of answer is: aggression
PART II.
Another type of answer: creative destruction (1942)
WB WDR 2018
What labour market impact?
• Increase in job destruction rates and structural unemployment– Mostly low- and medium-skill jobs but also high-skill jobs
• Changes in distributions of jobs/vacancies and of tasks for many jobs
• Stronger focus on interpersonal, non-cognitive, soft skills
• Increase in job creation in new industries
• Increase in number of self-employment opportunities
• Stronger demand by workers for working time flexibility– Can benefit particular groups, including women, older
workers, people with disabilities, etc
How should PES prepare?
• Increase micro-training supply
• Modernize jobseeker and vacancy profiling (skill-based assessment vs. occupation-based
• Tailoring profiling and job-seekers’ segmentation
• Improve integrated online career development /jobs portals
• Working around the GVCs
• Engage with the platform economy
• Make better use of data
EU PES Network’s answer
Draft structure of the Position Paper
1 - INTRODUCTION (EU policy context, other DGs policies, Wider literature…)
2 - NEW TRENDS CHALLENGING PES (Automation, Artificialintelligence, Ageing / shrinking workforce…)
3 - COMMON STATUS QUO IN PES NETWORK (SWOT)
4 - PES IMPLICATIONS TO TRENDS; RESPONSES, CASE STUDIES (logical framework from trends to cases)
5 – PES RENEWAL, LINK TO OTHER WORK STRANDS (tbc.)
Logical framework (MATRIX)
Challenges coming from the
FoW
REMAINING CHALLENGES (FROM THE MATRIX)
(European PES Innovation Lab?)
I. Demographical challenges
II. Technological challenges
OVERALL RESPONSE
New strategic reviews of PES: DK, UWU,
BE-VDAB, BA, NO
SPECIFIC RESPONSES
a) Lifelong Guidance: HR, HU
b) Blended delivery: FR, NL,
BE-VDAB
c) Big data: NL, BE-VDAB
d) Partnerships on the
demand side: BE-Le
Forem, SI
e) Integrated complex case
management: FR, DE, NO
What will be the impact of these
steps on the LM?
EU PES Network institutional
journey
Thank you for your attention!
BORBÉLY-PECZE, Tibor Bors, Dr. habil.Senior Policy Adviser, Hungary