forecasting techniques for manpower planning03

8/7/2019 FORECASTING TECHNIQUES FOR MANPOWER PLANNING03

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RAMYA.G

SUGANYA.S

Department of Management Studies, Anna University of Technology,

Tiruchirappalli.



ABSTRACT

Employment planning should be the integral part of a

firm¶s strategic and HR planning processes. Employmentor manpower planning is the process of deciding what

positions the firm will have to fill, and how to fill them. It

covers all future positions in an organization. Organization

use various techniques to identify the demand inmanpower planning.



MANPOWER PLANNINGManpower planning is a process by which an organization

ensures that the right number of people and right place at

the right time doing the right things for which they aresuited for the achievement of goals of the organization. It

is must to make the optimum utilization of the greatest

resource available i.e. manpower for the success of any

organization.



NEED OF MANPOWER PLANNING

Shortages and surpluses can be identified.

All the recruitment and selection programmes are based on

manpower planning.It also helps to reduce the labour cost as excess staff can be

identified.

It also helps to identify the available talents in a concern and

accordingly training programmes can be chalked out to develop

those talents.

It helps in growth and diversification of business.



STEPS IN MANPOWER PLANNING Analysing the current manpower inventory

Making future manpower forecasts

Developing employment programmes

Design training programmes



FORECASTING TECHNIQUESTrend analysis

Bottom up technique

Workforce analysis

Delphi technique

Normal group techniques

Markov model



Trend Analysis

Trend analysis means studying variation in the firm¶s employment levelsover the last few years.

We might compute the number of employees in the firm at the end of each

of the last five years, or perhaps the number in each subgroup (like sales,

production, secretarial, and administrative) at the end of each of those years.

The purpose is to identify trends that might continue into the future.

Bottom up technique

This method of forecasting starts at the lowest level and progresses upwards,

through various levels of organization, till an aggregate projection for the

organization as a whole is ready.While comparing present and future needs

Market demands

Mobility of staff in the department.



Wo

rkf o

rce analysis The average loss of manpower due to leave, retirement, death, transfer,

discharge etc. during the last 5 years may be taken to account.

The rate of absenteeism and labor turnover should also be taken intoaccount.

The nature of competition say from foreign banks, other non banking

financial institutions may also be considered here to find out actualrequirements in a year.

Delphi technique

Objective of Delphi technique is to predict future requirements in a particular area by integrating judgments and opinions provided

independently by many experts.Disadvantages

Time consuming

Integration problem



Normal group techniques

Nominal technique is somewhat related to Delphi technique,

except for that in this case the experts sit together in face to

face situation to make forecast.

Advantages

Each expert is making an independent forecast

All forecast are presented in one place

Take less time.



Mark ov modelMarkov models are being extensively used for analysis of manpower

planning systems.

Most of these models concentrate either on estimating the gradewise

distribution of future manpower structure, given the existing structure and

promotion policies, or on deriving policies towards promotion, given therequired future structure.

In many large organizations, agreements between employee unions and

management result in the framing of policies towards promotion based

either on seniority (length of service in the grade) or on performance (as in

the case of 'high fliers'). These two criteria are considered in a bivariate distribution framework.

The transition probabilities for promotion obtained from the Markov model

are further translated into required seniority and performance rating.



CON

CLUSION

Manpower is an essential resource for every organization.

Proper planning must be taken to utilize the manpower effectively.

Various techniques are used to forecast the manpower planning.

It helps to reduce investments and achieve efficient manpower demand and supply.

It avoids the imbalance manpower in the organization such as

undersupply or oversupply of labor.



THANK YOU

forecasting techniques for manpower planning03

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