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TRANSCRIPT
Leading Edge Forum 07/08/10 01:32 PM
Situation Normal, Everything Must ChangeSimon Wardley, Researcher
“The challenge of the computer utility” Douglas Parkhill
1966
Product
Custom builtInnovation
Commodity
Utility Services
Certainty
Ubiquity
Certainty
Ubiquity
Commodi
tisation
Commodi
tisation
Certainty
Ubiquity
Improvement (supply competition)
Demand (user competition)
Infrastructure
Platform
Software
... as aProduct
... as aService
Certainty
Ubiquity
Concept
Suitability
Technology
Attitude
Certainty
Ubiquity
Marketplace
Standardised Service!
Certainty
Ubiquity
Agility (Self Service)
Innovation (creative destruction, componentisation)
Economies of scale(volume operations)
Focus on core (outsource)
Pay per use (utility)
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
Creative Destruction
Theory of Hierarchy Componentisation
Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
Certainty
Ubiquity
AcceleratedInnovation
Infrastructure
Platform
Software
Henry Maudslay(1771 - 1831)
Standards Matter
Certainty
Ubiquity
Disruptive
Transition
GovernanceTrust
Confusion
Transparency
CompetitionLock-inSecond SourceControl
SuitabilityOutsourcing
Security
Certainty
Ubiquity
Market
Competitive Gap
Certainty
Ubiquity
You
Pres
sure
Prof. Van Valen “Red Queen Hypothesis”
Certainty
Ubiquity
Market
You
Certainty
Ubiquity
Transitional Risks Security of supply, governance, trust ... Hybrid
consumption
efficiency
William Stanley Jevons, 1865
“Jevons Paradox”
Technological progress that increases the
efficiency with which a resource is used, tends to
increase the rate of consumption of that
resource.
Lifecycle
#
CommoditisationDemand vs Supply Competition
InnovationCreative DestructionComponentisation
Lifecycle
#
LifecycleVRM ‘06 MyDex ‘08
National Grid, ‘30s H. Pixii, 1832
Z3 ‘41
Turing ‘36
IBM 650, ‘54
PowerEdge, ‘02
Amazon EC2 ‘06
CustomerCentric ‘70s
Siebel SIS ’94
DBM ’80s
Lifecycle
#
ProceduralPredictable
CODB
StandardisedKnown
Repeatable
Emergent
DeviationDynamic
Serendipty
Uncertain
Chaotic Linear
Competitive Adv.
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
Prof. Van Valen
Lifecycle
#
Survival today requires ‘coherence, coordination and stability’.
Survival tomorrow requires the replacement of these erstwhile virtues.
Salaman & Storey
Innovation Paradox
Commoditisation
Innovation
Lifecycle
#
Network Effects, Open Source, Participation
Commoditisation
Innovation
Lifecycle
#
Pricing, Confusion, Branding
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fatdeeman/2879894647
Lifecycle
#
Six Sigma
Why are we spending $600M p.a. on customising stuff
has no strategic value?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
One size fits all
ITAdminBusiness
Lifecycle
#
VS
Lifecycle
# Pioneers Colonisers Town Planner
Innovate Leverage Commoditise
CustomerCentric ‘70s
Siebel SIS ’94
DBM ’80s Salesforce ’02 (10.6%)
Lists
InnovateDays / Weeks
Agile
High Risk
Re-use
Fail QuickMin. Inv.
ExperimentCollaborate
In-house
Lifecycle
#
LeverageMonths / Years
Agile
ROI
Decide
TacticMod. Inv.
EvaluateMonitor / Acquire
Ecosystem
YearsTOGAF
Price vs QoS
Common Service
Low RiskHigh. Inv.
StandardiseSupply Chain
Outsource
Commoditise
20% Work
Summer of Code
Open Source Investment
Google Labs
Marketplace
Core Services
Acquisition
Innovate Leverage Commoditse
Lifecycle
#
Defined Build Procedures
‘08
Innovate Leverage Commoditse
Lifecycle
Panoramio ‘07
Map API ’05
Where2 Oct’04GIS ‘62
Core ServicesAcquisition
PlatformAppExchange(monitor)
Innovate Leverage Commoditse
Lifecycle
#
CRM Ideas
Defined Build Procedures
SalesForce
Leading Edge Forum
Global Research & Advisory Organization
Membership of a community of true peers, business and technology experts
and advisers
Leading Edge Forum
Leading Edge Forum
#
Lifecycle
Leading Edge Forum
http://lef.csc.com