foresight exercise in lorraine key technologies 2000/2005 pierre bourgogne director of innovation
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STRATIN.C. FORESIGHT EXERCISE IN LORRAINE KEY TECHNOLOGIES 2000/2005 Pierre BOURGOGNE Director of innovation Regional council of Lorraine. FIRST STAGE IDENTIFICATION OF THE REGIONAL KEY TECHNOLOGIES. Determination of the fields opportunities potential - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
TENERIFE MEETING APRIL 17th & 18th 2005TENERIFE MEETING APRIL 17th & 18th 2005
FORESIGHT EXERCISE IN LORRAINE
KEY TECHNOLOGIES 2000/2005
Pierre BOURGOGNEDirector of innovation
Regional council of Lorraine
STRATIN.C.
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FIRST STAGE
IDENTIFICATION OF THE REGIONAL KEY TECHNOLOGIES
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Analyse of the industrial demand and of research & technology offer in Lorraine Identification of the majortechnologies for LorraineConsensus building
· Definition of strategic criteria
· Determination of major technologies(working groups)
· Face to face interviews · Estimation of the potential of
enterprises creation
· Analyse of the competitive position
· Analyse of the means and toolsfor the technological diffusion
Preparation of the action plan
Diffusion means and competitivesituation
Determination of the fields opportunities potentialidentification of main technologies in Lorraine
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Evaluation criteria (1)Evaluation criteria (1)
Internal criteriaadequacy to the regional scientific potentialadequacy to the regional education potentialadequacy to the regional industrial potentialadequacy to the regional specificities
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Evaluation criteria (2)Evaluation criteria (2)
External criteriaeffects on jobsfinancial effectsindustrial effectseconomical effectsenvironnemental & societal effects technological effects
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Demand of the existingindustrial fabric
Valorisation of advancedscientific & technological
competences
Positioning on emergingand promising markets
CHOICE
Missing links
What is a key technology ?
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The short term report
6
5
4
3
21
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
28
27
26
25
2423
22
21
1920
18
17
16
41
40
39
38 3736
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
44
43
42
50
49
48
47
46
45
52
51
63
62
61
6059
58
57
56
55
54
53
68 67
6665 64
70
69
74
73
72
71
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
1,50 2,00 2,50 3,00 3,50 4,00
Mécatronic techn.Designing advanced techn.Rapid manuf. and toolingSustainable development techn.Surface engineeringFood safety and qualityIndustrial valoris. of agro prod.ICTsAdvanced materialsMedical techn. Process engineering techn.
Internal criteria
Ext
erna
l cri
teri
a Captors Computer aided small
series manufacturing Eco-building Agro-food engineering
Technologies Non-toxic glues Process safety
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Smart captorsComputer aided small
series manufacturingEco-building Agro-food engineering
TechnologiesNon toxic gluesProcess safety
6
4
3,5
3
2,52,5 3 3,5 4
The short term report
1
5
3
4
2
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Cri
tère
s ext
erne
s
Critères internes
Ext
erna
l cri
teri
a
6
5
4
3
2
1
15
1413
12
11 10
9
8
7
28
27
26
25
24
23
2221
19
18
2017
16
41
40
39
373638
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
44
43
42
50
49
48
47
46
45
52
51
63
62
61
59
60
58
5756
55
54
53
67
66
68
65
64
70
69
74
73
72
71
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
1,50 2,00 2,50 3,00 3,50 4,00
Mecatronic techn.
Advanced designing techn.
Rapid manufacturing and tooling
Sustainable development techn.
Surface engineering
Food safety and quality
Non-food indust. valorisation
ICTs
Advanced materials
Medical techn.
Processs engineering techn.
Internal criteria
Smart captors Eco-bâtiment Food process engineering
techn. On-toxic glues management and
evaluation tools for the environmental and health risks
Process safety Testing and measuring
systems Composites with a matrix
made of vegetable fibers Traceability
The long term podium
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4
3,5
3
2,52,5 3 3,5 4
4
1 Smart captors 2 Eco-bâtiment 3 Food process
engineering techn. 4 Non-toxic glues 5 Management and
evaluation tools for the environmental and health risks
6 Process safety 7 Testing and
measuring systems 8 Composites with a
matrix made of vegetable fibers
9 Traceability
The long term podium
2
1
9 67
8
3
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Smart captors (4) Eco-building
Non-toxic gluesFood process engineering techn.
Process afety
Short termComputer aided small series
manufacturing (44)
LEVEL 1: 5 KT
LEVEL 2: 5 KT
LEVEL 3: 19 KT
Selection of 29 key technologies
Long termMeasuring and testing systems (30)Composites with organic matrices
made of vegetable fibers Management and evaluation tools for environm. and health risks (76)
traceability (89)
Internal/external criteria , ST /LT > 3
19 Complementary technologies
Internal/external criteria , ST /LT < 3
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Scientificpotential
Technologytransfer
potential Education
potential Industrial potential
Competitionlevel
Entryticket
Marketgrowth
Fuel cells
Eco-building
Surface treatmentengineering Non-food valorisationof agro-products Food quality security
Mecatronics
Advanced designtechnoologies Process engineering
Rapid tooling andmanufacturing Composites materials
Fibers materials
High temperaturesmaterials
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emergence nugget
engineconsolidation
Fuel cells
Eco-buildingSurface
treatment engineeringNon food from
agro industry
Composite/advancedmaterials
Rapid tooling &manufacturing
Processengineering
Fibre/advancedmaterials
High temperaturematerials
Food safety& quality
Design advancedtechnologies
Mecatronictechnologies
KEY TECHNOLOGIES EXERCICELORRAINE SITUATION
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SECOND STAGE
COMPETITIVE SITUATION OF LORRAINE WITHIN THE FRENCH LANDSCAPE
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Objectives of the second stage Objectives of the second stage
Identification of the 3 or 4 French regions in competition with Lorraine in each 12 key technologies clusters
Mapping and hierarchisation of the technological competences in each selected regions
Evaluation of the competitive position of Lorraine in comparison with the other French regions on the 12 key technologies clusters
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Advanced materials / Composites
Advanced materials / fibres
Advanced matrials / high temperatures
Eco building
Adv. technos for processes & prod. design
Food safety and quality
Rapid tooling and manufacturing
Mecatronic technologies
Non-food valorisation of agro products
Process engineering
Fuel cells
Surface treatments and engineerng
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RegionNumber of
technologiesTechnologies
Nord Pas de Calais 3Process engineeringNon food valorisation of agro productsAdvanced materials/fibres
Languedoc Roussillon
1Process engineering
Rhône Alpes 9
Process engineeringRapid tooling and manufacturingMecatronics technologiesDesign advanced technologiesFuel cellsSurface treatment and engineeringAdvanced materials/compositesAdvanced materials/fibresAdvanced materials/high temperature
Ile de France 5
Process engineeringRapid tooling and manufacturingMecatronics technologiesFuel cellsNon food valorisation of agro products
Midi Pyrénées 4
Rapid tooling and manufacturingEco buildingAdvanced materials/compositesAdvanced materials/high temperature
Technological clusters & RegionsTechnological clusters & Regions
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Region Number of technologies Technologies
Alsace 3Rapid tooling and manufacturingSurface treatment and engineeringNon food valorisation of agro products
PACA 4
Mecatronics technologiesFuel cellsEco buildingAdvanced materials/fibres
Haute Normandie 3Mecatronics technologiesDesign advanced technologiesAdvanced materials/composites
Franche Comté 3Design advanced technologiesFuel cellsSurface treatment and engineering
Auvergne 2Design advanced technologiesFood safey and quality
Bourgogne 1 Food safey and qualityBretagne 1 Food safey and qualityAquitaine 1 Eco building
Champagne Ardennes
2 Surface treatement and engineeringAdvanced materials/fibres
Picardie 1 Non food valorisation of agro productsBasse Normandie 1 Advanced materials/composites
Limousin 1 Advanced materials/high temperatureCentre 1 Advanced materials/high temperature
Technological clusters and RegionsTechnological clusters and Regions
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Nombre d’entreprises : 10 063 (CT) + 140 (LT)
Salariés : 1 092 672 (CT) + 24337 (LT)
Chiffres clés français
Centres de recherches : Ecoles des mines / INSA Lyon / PPE / PEP / Compositec / CETIM / SAINT GOBAIN (vetrotex)Procédés innovants: Développement de l’Estampage / Pultrusion / Analyse fonctionnel
France
Le marché se divise en deux : les matières premières (3.3 milliards € en France) , la transformation (2 078 M€)CA France : 15 % production européenne / All (28%) / Italie (18%)
Autres faits
Construction aéronautique et automobile, bâtiment, loisirs, matériels ferroviaires,Biomédical, manufacture, médical, fibres, matériels électriques et électroniquesDassault/ Volvo / Bouygues / Vinci / Rossignol /
Secteur d’applicationTransformation des composites, Thermoplastique, Moules, Fonderies, chimie InnoPlast / Matra / Plastic omnium / Hutchinson / Acome /Unijecet / Gimm menuiseries /
Secteur fournisseurs
Nombre d’entreprises : 380 soit 4%
Salariés : 48 160 soit 4%
Chiffres clés Lorraine
Code NAF : 25.2Advanced materials / Composites
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Advanced materials / Composites
Rhône Alpes est largement en avance en termes de nombres de salariés (17,96%) et d’entreprises (18,82%). La Lorraine est comparable aux autres régions pour ce qui est du nombre d’utilisateurs, mais se distingue avec la Haute Normandie pour le nombre de fournisseurs.
Points atypiques:
Total % Total % Total % Total %859 548 100% 24 337 100% 6854 100% 140 100%
37 847 4,40% 341 1,40% 264 3,85% 4 2,86%
35 826 4,17% 313 1,29% 260 3,79% 5 3,57%
26 415 3,07% 0 0,00% 167 2,44% 0 0,00%
36 733 4,27% 625 2,57% 210 3,06% 4 2,86%
96 660 11,25% 4 873 20,02% 955 13,93% 15 10,71%
233 481 27,16% 6152 25,28% 1 856 27,08% 28 20,00%
233 124 100% 3 209 100%
9 972 4,28% 112 3,49%
4 749 2,04% 80 2,49%
4 774 2,05% 82 2,56%
14 091 6,04% 134 4,18%
41 874 17,96% 604 18,82%
75 460 32,37% 1 012 31,54%
Basse Normandie
FranceLorraine
Midi Pyrénées
Rhône Alpes
Haute Normandie
Régions
Materiaux avancés / composites
Court Terme Long TermeNombre de salariés Nombre d'entreprises
Long Terme Court Terme
Rhône Alpes
Haute Normandie
Total Régions
Four
niss
eur
Total Régions
FranceLorraine
Midi Pyrénées
Basse Normandie
Util
isat
eur
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Advanced materials / Composites
Midi Pyrénées Rhône Alpes Haute Normandie Basse Normandie Lorraine Moyenne
Nombre, CA, nombre d'emplois des structures de transfert
4 1 3 2 5 3
Nombre d'incubateurs, pépinières d'entreprises, fonds
27 25 8 12 14 17,2
Budget consacré dans le CPER pour ces domaines
0 2,28 1,66 0 0 0,788
Liste des opérations ou organisations
20 35 8 4 9 15,2
Nombre d'emplois salariés (Utilisateur)
36 139 101 533 37 358 26 415 38 188 47926,6
Nombre d'emplois salariés (Fournisseur)
4 749 41 874 14 091 4 774 9 972 15092,0
Nombre d'entreprises (Utilisateur)
265 970 214 167 268 376,8
Nombre d'entreprises (Fournisseur)
80 604 134 82 112 202,4
R&D (Utilisateur) 6 201 8 369 1 826 1 088 676 3632,1
R&D (Fournisseur) 328 1 500 753 70 382 606,7
DIRD (Utilisateur) 825 1 297 208 102 63 498,9
DIRD (Fournisseur) 26 132 68 5 35 53,2
Nombre de doctorants 373 875 167 93 209 343,4
Nombre de chercheurs du secteur public
735 1780 248 190 597 710
Nombre de brevets 10 77 7 6 7 21,4
Nombre de formations 4 6 1 2 9 4,4
Ent
repr
ises
Tra
nsfe
rt d
e T
echn
olog
ies
Rec
herc
he
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Advanced materials / Composites
Rhône Alpes domine largement la recherche publique. Midi Pyrénées la seconde. Lorraine possède de nombreuses formations.
Points atypiques:
Midi Pyrénées et Rhône Alpes sont les 2 régions leader. Légère avance pour Rhône Alpes qui a inscrit cette technologie au CPER.
Points atypiques:
Technology transfer
Research and upper education
Critères Midi Pyrénées Rhône Alpes Haute Normandie Basse Normandie Lorraine
Number, turn over, jobs of TTstructures Leader Weaknesses Opportunities Weaknesses Leader
Number of incubators, nurseries foundsfounds
Leader Leader Weaknesses Weaknesses Weakneses
Public budget (CPER) Weaknesses Leader Leader Weaknesses Weaknesses
Number of operations or organisations Leader Leader Weaknesses Weaknesses Weaknesses
Critères Midi Pyrénées Rhône Alpes Haute Normandie Basse Normandie Lorraine
Number of PhD under preparation Opportunities Leader Weaknesses Weaknesses Weaknesses
Number of “public “ researchers Opportunities Leader Weaknesses Weaknesses Weaknesses
Number of patents Weaknesses Leader Weaknesses Weaknesses Weaknesses
Number of different diplomas Opportunities Leader Weaknesses Weaknesses Leader
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Adanced materials / Composites
La Lorraine est placée juste derrière la région Midi Pyrénées
Haute-Normandie bien positionnée sur cette technologie (Réseau interrégional de recherche Matériaux, Polymères, Plasturgie(1,66 M € CPER)
Points atypiques:
Technology transfer
Research and upper educationLorraine et Midi-Pyrénées possèdent un bon réseau de recherche dédié aux composites, avec un léger avantage pour MP qui est le second pôle français de recherche sur les matériaux avancés.
Points atypiques:
Analysis without Rhône-Alpes
Critères Midi Pyrénées Haute Normandie Basse Normandie Lorraine
Nombre, CA, nombre d'emplois des structures de transfert Compétitorf Weaknesses Weaknesses Leader
Nombre d'incubateurs, pépinières d'entreprises, fonds de soutien
Leader Weaknesses Weaknesses Opportunities
Budget consacré dans le CPER pour ces domaines
Weaknesses Leader Weaknesses weaknesses
Liste des opérations ou organisations
Leader Weaknesses Weaknesses weaknesses
Critères Midi Pyrénées Haute Normandie Basse Normandie Lorraine
Nombre de doctorants Leader Weaknesses Weaknesses Opportunities
Nombre de chercheurs du secteur public
Leader Weaknesses Weaknesses Leader
Nombre de brevets Leader Opportunities Weaknesses Opportunities
Nombre de formations Opportunities Weaknesses Weaknesses Leader
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Advanced materials / Composites
Midi Pyrénées est la seule des 5 régions à pouvoir rivaliser au niveau de la recherche privée chez les utilisateurs avec la région Rhône Alpes.La région Haute Normandie reste quant à elle compétitive au niveau de la recherche et en termes de nombres d’emploi salariés.
Points atypiques:
Enterprises
Critères Midi Pyrénées Rhône Alpes Haute Normandie Basse Normandie Lorraine
Number of jobs (users)
Faiblesses Leader Faiblesses Faiblesses Faiblesses
Number of jobs(spplyers)
Faiblesses Leader Opportunités Faiblesses Faiblesses
Numer of enterprises (Users) Faiblesses Leader Faiblesses Faiblesses Faiblesses
Number of enterprises (supplyers) Faiblesses Leader Faiblesses Faiblesses Faiblesses
R&D (users) Leader Leader Faiblesses Faiblesses Faiblesses
R&D (supplyers) Faiblesses Leader Compétitif Faiblesses Faiblesses
DIRD (users) Leader Leader Faiblesses Faiblesses Faiblesses
DIRD (supplyers) Faiblesses Leader Compétitif Faiblesses Faiblesses
TENERIFE MEETING APRIL 17th & 18th 2005TENERIFE MEETING APRIL 17th & 18th 2005
Advanced materials / Composites
La Lorraine est mise en avant au niveau de ses entreprises. En ce qui concerne la recherche privée, le niveau d’investissement y est élevé, alors que les effectifs sont faibles.
Points atypiques:Analyse without Rhône Alpes
Entreprises
Critères Midi Pyrénées Haute Normandie Basse Normandie Lorraine
Nombre d'emplois salariés (Utilisateur)
Opportunités Opportunités Faiblesses Compétitif
Nombre d'emplois salariés (Fournisseur)
Faiblesses Leader Faiblesses Compétitif
Nombre d'entreprises (Utilisateur) Compétitif Opportunités Faiblesses Compétitif
Nombre d'entreprises (Fournisseur) Faiblesses Leader Faiblesses Opportunités
R&D (Utilisateur) Leader Faiblesses Faiblesses Faiblesses
R&D (Fournisseur) Leader Opportunités Faiblesses Opportunités
DIRD (Utilisateur) Opportunités Faiblesses Faiblesses Leader
DIRD (Fournisseur) Faiblesses Faiblesses Faiblesses Faiblesses
TENERIFE MEETING APRIL 17th & 18th 2005TENERIFE MEETING APRIL 17th & 18th 2005
Technologies Leaders Competitor Opportunities Weaknesses
Design advanced technologies 7 0 4 4
Advanced materials / high temperatures 7 0 3 6
Process engineering 5 0 3 8
Advanceed materials / composites 4 3 5 4
Eco building 4 0 1 7
Food safety and quality 3 5 2 6
Surface treatment and engineering 2 5 3 6
Rapid tooling and manufacturing 1 4 4 7
Advanced materials / Fibres 2 1 8 5Non-food valorisation of agro products
1 2 4 9
Fuel cells 2 1 1 12
Mecatronic technologies 2 0 1 13
Lorraine
Lea
der
Com
petit
orO
ppor
tuni
ties
Results – comparative situations
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THIRD STAGE
SCENARIOS BUILDING
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Strategy : Scenario 1 –1Strategy : Scenario 1 –1
TT 1
Entreprises 1
R&D 1
Weighing system :
Emphasising technologies over 30% / general mean
Same weight for the different functions
Short term technological strategy on excellences poles, low risk
Sup 30% 2[30%- 10%] 1
[10% - (-10%)] 1Inf -10% 0
Podium :
1. Design advanced technologies
2. Advanced materials /high temperatures
3. Eco building
4. Advanced materials / composites
Score
Technologies avancées de conception 4,08Matériaux avancés hautes températures 3,58Ecobatiment 3,17Matériaux avancées composites 3,13Génie des procédés 3,00Sécurité et qualité des aliments 2,75Matériaux avancées fibres 2,25Outillage et fabrication rapide 2,13Ingéniérie et traitement de surfaces 2,13Valorisation non alimentaire des produits agricoles 2,13Mécatroniques 1,25Pile à combustible 1,00
Technologies
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Strategy : Scenario 1 –2Strategy : Scenario 1 –2
TT 1
Entreprises 1
R&D 1
Podium :
1. Food safety and quality
2. Surface treatment engineering
3. Rapid tooling and manufacturing
4. Advanced materials / composites
Sup 30% 1[30%- 10%] 2
[10% - (-10%)] 1Inf -10% 0
Score
Sécurité et qualité des aliments 3,00Ingéniérie et traitement de surfaces 2,75Outillage et fabrication rapide 2,63Matériaux avancées composites 2,63Technologies avancées de conception 2,29Matériaux avancés hautes températures 2,17Matériaux avancées fibres 2,00Valorisation non alimentaire des produits agricoles 2,00Génie des procédés 1,75Ecobatiment 1,75Pile à combustible 1,00Mécatroniques 0,75
Technologies
Weighing system :
Emphasising technologies between 10 & 30% / general meanSame weight for the different functions
Middle term technological diversification strategy, average risk
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Strategy : Scenario 1 – 3Strategy : Scenario 1 – 3Weighing system : Emphasising technologies between -
10 & 10% / general mean Same weight for the different functions More long term consolidation
strategy on high potentiel technologies greater risk
Podium :
1. Advanced materials / fibres
2. Advanced material / composites
3. Advanced materials / hautes températures
4. Design advanced technologies
TT 1
Entreprises 1
R&D 1
Sup 30% 1[30%- 10%] 1
[10% - (-10%)] 2Inf -10% 0
Score
Matériaux avancées fibres 3,25Matériaux avancées composites 3,25Matériaux avancés hautes températures 2,92Technologies avancées de conception 2,79Outillage et fabrication rapide 2,75Valorisation non alimentaire des produits agricoles 2,38Sécurité et qualité des aliments 2,25Génie des procédés 2,25Ingéniérie et traitement de surfaces 2,13Ecobatiment 2,08Mécatroniques 1,00Pile à combustible 1,00
Technologies "opportunités"
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Strategy : Scenario 2-1Strategy : Scenario 2-1 Weighing system :
Emphasising new current technologies (existing enterprises & short term development)
Same weight for the different functions
Consolidation strategy on close to the market technologies (job emphasising and development of turn over)
Sup 30% 1[30%- 10%] 1
[10% - (-10%)] 1Inf -10% 0
R&D 1
Entreprises 2
TT 1,5
Score
Technologies avancées de conception 3,25Matériaux avancées composites 3,25Matériaux avancés hautes températures 3,08Sécurité et qualité des aliments 3,00Matériaux avancées fibres 2,88Ingéniérie et traitement de surfaces 2,75Outillage et fabrication rapide 2,63Valorisation non alimentaire des produits agricoles 2,25Génie des procédés 2,25Ecobatiment 2,25Pile à combustible 1,13Mécatroniques 1,00
Technologies actuelles
Podium :
1. Design advanced technologies
2. Advanced materials / composites
3. Advanced materials / high temperatures
4. Food safety and quality
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Strategy : Scenario 2-2Strategy : Scenario 2-2
Score
Technologies avancées de conception 3,63Matériaux avancées composites 3,50Matériaux avancés hautes températures 3,42Sécurité et qualité des aliments 3,00Outillage et fabrication rapide 3,00Génie des procédés 3,00Ecobatiment 3,00Matériaux avancées fibres 2,75Valorisation non alimentaire des produits agricoles 2,63Ingéniérie et traitement de surfaces 2,50Mécatroniques 1,25Pile à combustible 1,13
Technologies Prospectives
TT 1,5R&D 2
Entreprises 1
Sup 30% 1[30%- 10%] 1
[10% - (-10%)] 1Inf -10% 0
Weighing system :
Emphasising speculative technologies (strong R&D and development)
Same weight between technologies
Results emphasising emergence strategy of a materials pole
Same ranking as before for four technologies:1. Designe advanced technologies2. Advanced materials /
composites3. Advanced materials / high
tempareture4. Food safety and quality
TENERIFE MEETING APRIL 17th & 18th 2005TENERIFE MEETING APRIL 17th & 18th 2005
STRATIN.C.
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