FORESIGHT IN A TIME OF SIMPLICITY, COMPLEXITY AND CHAOS

Paul Schumann

UNPREDICTABILITY “Most of all, we need to preserve the

absolute unpredictably and total improbability of our connected minds. That way we can keep open all the options, as we have in the past.”

Lewis Thomas, 1973

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OUTLINE Introduction Foresight 1, 2, A Few, Many Chaos, Gaia, Eros Simplicity, Complexity, Emergence & Fractals Examples of Emergence & Complexity Massively Parallel vs. Mathematical Modeling Characteristics: Simple and Complex Strategy Foresight redux Resources

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COMPLEXITY HISTORYPaul Schumann

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FORESIGHT To perceive or prepare wisely for the

future

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1, 2, A FEW, MANY1 2 A Few

ManyNewton BoltzmannGaussPoincare

Simplicity Organized Complexity Disorganized Complexity

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CHAOS, GAIA, EROS Chaos: the source of all creation

Gaia: the created universe

Eros: the creative impulse

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SIMPLICITY Growth Curve (Logistic)

Exponential Curve

Learning Curve (Experience)

Substitution Curves

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COMPLEXITY, EMERGENCE & FRACTALS The behavior of a complex

system in equilibrium is chaotic, in non-equilibrium is critical

Emergence is the way complex systems and patterns arise out of a multiplicity of relatively simple interactions

A fractal is an object or quantity that displays self-similarity on all scales.

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Complexity

Equilibrium

Non-equilibriu

m

Chaos Criticality

Agents

Emergence FractalsAdaptive

FOOLED BY COMPLEXITYPaul Schumann

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CHAOSPaul Schumann

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Double Pendulum

SIMPLICITY TO CHAOSPaul Schumann

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The Logistic Map: x t + 1 = R x t ( 1 – x t )

R = 2x 0 = 0.99

R = 4x 0 = 0.2x 0 = 0.20000000001

CRITICALITYPaul Schumann

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N = a M -2

EARTHQUAKESPaul Schumann

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Criticality

Gaussian

STOCK MARKETPaul Schumann

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P=a C -2.1

2007: corr=0.982008: corr=0.94

INTEGRATED CIRCUITSPaul Schumann

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1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20151,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

10,000,000

100,000,000

1,000,000,000

10,000,000,000 Integrated Circuit CPU

Year

Num

er o

f Tr

ansi

stor

s

INTEGRATED CIRCUITSPaul Schumann

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1

10

DataProjection

Fractional Delta

Prob

abili

ty

corr = 0.98P ~ D -1.5

EMERGENCEPaul Schumann

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T1

T1

T2>T1

T1

Bernard Cell (1900)

WEATHER MAPPaul Schumann

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EMERGENCEPaul Schumann

20Termite Cathedral

EMERGENCEPaul Schumann

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FRACTALS To create a Koch snowflake, one

begins with an equilateral triangle and then replaces the middle third of every line segment with a pair of line segments that form an equilateral "bump." One then performs the same replacement on every line segment of the resulting shape, ad infinitum. With every iteration, the perimeter of this shape increases by one third of the previous length. The Koch snowflake is the result of an infinite number of these iterations, and has an infinite length, while its area remains finite. For this reason, the Koch snowflake and similar constructions were sometimes called "monster curves.“

Wikipedia

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FRACTALPaul Schumann

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FRACTAL ZOOMPaul Schumann

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A magnification of the phoenix set. (Wikipedia)

FRACTAL ZOOMPaul Schumann

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FRACTAL ZOOM (MANDELBROT SET)Paul Schumann

26Compliments of goooz (http://www.youtube.com/user/gooozz)

MODELING

MATHEMATICAL MASSIVELY PARALLEL

Derived Analytical Conditional Equation: x = ½ a t2

Predictive

Simulation Describe underlying

mechanisms Rule based agents in an

environment Exploration Easier to add random or

probabilistic events Flexible & intuitive

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STARLOGOPaul Schumann

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STARLOGO (RABBITS)Paul Schumann

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IT’S NOT EITHER – OR, IT’S BOTH - AND

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Complexity

Simplicity

Chaos

Criticality

CHARACTERISTICS & APPLICATIONSPaul Schumann

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Simplicity Chaos Emergence

Criticality

Characteristics

ReductionisticDeterministicPredictiveClosed system

Dynamical systemDeterministicInitial conditions sensitiveAttractorsHolistic

AgentsInteractiveRulesMassively parallel

Complex systemNon-equilibriumUnpredictableProbabilistic

Applications Utility functionTrendsDriving forces unchanged

Scenarios InsightExplorationShaping

HistoryProbability

STRATEGY Understand the system Explore the system Use “what if” Identify opportunities and threats Utilize early warning system (if possible) Look for asymmetries Understand risk, probabilities and outcomes Expand the system Start again

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FORESIGHT REDUXPaul Schumann

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Foresight

Prudence

Insight

Portent

THE FUTURE OF FORESIGHT More systems More interconnectedness in the

systems The reach of a system is growing The number of people in a system is

increasing Therefore: More complexity

More chaos More criticality More emergence

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THE PRESENT “It makes me happy. To be at the beginning

again, knowing almost nothing… The ordinary-sized stuff which is our lives, the things people write poetry about – clouds – daffodils – waterfalls,,,these things are full of mystery, as mysterious to us as the heavens were to the Greeks…It’s the best possible time to be alive, when almost everything you thought you knew is wrong.”

Tom Stoppard, Arcadia

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PAUL SCHUMANN Glocal Vantage Inc, PO Box 161475, Austin, TX

78716 512.632.6586 paul.schumann@glocalvantage.com http://www.glocalvantage.com http://incollaboration.ning.com http://www.twitter.com/innovant2003

Twibe: http://www.twitter.com/groups/future #future

Want to go further? Contact me…

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RESOURCES Complexity: A Guided Tour, Melanie Mitchell, Oxford, 2009 The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Random House,

2007 Adventures in Modeling: Exploring Complex, Dynamic Systems with StarLogo, Vanessa Stevens

Colella, Eric Klopfer & Mitchel Resnick, Teachers College press, 2001 Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, and Software, Steven Johnson, Scribner,2001 Ubiquity: Why Catastrophes Happen, Mark Buchanan, Three Rivers Press, 2000 Turtles, Termites and Traffic Jams: Explorations in Massively Parallel Microworlds, Mitchel

Resnick, MIT, 1997 The Tao of Chaos, Katya Walter, Element Books, 1996 Chaos Gaia Eros, Ralph Abraham, Harper, 1994 Tao of Chaos: Merging East and West, Katya Walter, Kairos Center, 1994 Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos, M. Mitchell Waldrop,

Touchstone, 1992 Exploring Complexity: An Introduction, Gregoire Nicolis & Ilya Prigogine, Freeman, 1989 Chaos: Making a New A Science, James Gleick, Penguin, 1987 Godel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid, Douglas Hofstadter, Vintage, 1980

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Go to Insights*Intelligence *Innovation Collaborative (http://incollaboration.ning.com) and search for complexity. All the resources listed above have blog entries and or links.

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution license. You may

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me for the original creation as Paul Schumann, Glocal Vantage Inc,

www.glocalvantage.com.