Foresight International

Responding to the Biggest Wake-Up Call in History

Richard A Slaughter

Aims and Purposes

• To provide a framing view of the global context• To introduce notions of a ‘wake-up call’ and

‘descent futures’• To provide an overview of responses, methods,

perceptions and tasks• To outline a rationale for developing proactive

strategies within local government

Overview

• Evidence for a ‘wake-up’ call?• What responses are worth exploring?• What methods are available?• Pivotal issues & priority tasks• Re-framing optimism and pessimism• Role of Institutions of Foresight (IoFs)• Implications for local government• Conclusions

Evidence? Tip of Iceberg

1950 1965 1980 1995 2010

Hubbert’s Peak, 1956

V Packard, Waste Makers, 1957

F Polak, Image of Future, 1961

R Carson, Silent Spring, 1963

E Mishan, Costs of Econ Growth, 1967

E Leach, Runaway World, 1967

P Ehrlich, Pop Bomb,1968

L Mumford, Pentagon of Power, 1968

D Meadows, Limits to Growth, 1972

G Vickers, Freedom in a Rocking Boat, 1972

IF Schumacher, Small is Beautiful, 1974

R Vacca, The Coming Dark Age, 1974

C Birch, Confronting the Future, 1976

A Lovins, Soft Energy Paths, 1977

W Catton, Overshoot, 1980

H Henderson, Politics of the Solar Age, 1981

J Lovelock, Gaia, 1981

M Berman, Reenchantment of the World, 1981

C Weeramantry, Slumbering Sentinals, 1983

J Macy, Despair & Personal Power, 1983

L Milbrath, Envisaging a Sustainable Society, 1989

W McKibbin, End of Nature, 1990

D Meadows, Beyond the Limits, 1992

T Flannery, Future Eaters, 1994

K Wilber, Sex, Ecology, Sprituality, 1995

J Saul, Unconscious Civilisation, 1995

U Beck, World Risk Society, 1999

E Wilson, The Future of Life, 2002

P Raskin, Great Transformation, 2002

W Steffen, Global Change & Earth System, 2004

J Diamond, Collapse, 2005

D Meadows, LTG: 30 Yr Update, 2008

R Hopkins, Transition Handbook, 2008

M Lynas, 6 Degrees, 2008

J Hansen, Storms of My Grandchildren, 2009

C Hamilton, Requiem for a Species, 2010

60 Years of Insight into the Global System

Global Change/Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure

The impact of human activities on the global atmosphere is unmistakable and profound

Human-driven changes are pushing the Earth System well outside its normal operating range

The last 50 years have without doubt seen the most rapid transformation of the human relationship with the natural world in the history of humankind

Source Steffen, W (et al), Global Change and the Earth System, IGBP, 2004

‘Overshoot’ from mid 1980s

Jackson, R. Occupy World Street, 2012, p 5

Beyond the Limits

Source: Rockstrom, Nature, 2009

Limits already exceeded:• Climate change• Biodiversity losses• Nitrogen cycleLimits likely to be exceeded:• Ozone depletion• Fresh water• Ocean acidification• Land use changesUnknown:• Atmosphere aerosol loading• Chemical pollution

Peak Oil and Climate Change

• Challenge values & operating assumptions

• Early action preferable to managing consequences

• Yet lack of social understanding and political will -> poor response Oil Production

Source: Heinberg, Powerdown, 2004

Generic Ways of Responding

Tsunami marker stones in Japan

• Deny, disguise or confuse the signals (close to universal)• Respond by alleviating the pressures through

technological fixes (common)• Work on underlying causes and change the structure of

the system (seldom considered)

Source: Meadows, Limits to Growth: 30 Year Update, 2004

Pivotal Issues and Perceptions

The Three Economies

Source: Floyd & Slaughter, Descent Pathways, Foresight 16,6, 2014

Macro Issues Include:

• Nature of growth in a finite system• How to adapt economics• The de-materialisation of money• Illegitimate or disruptive use of the new

tools: Internet, encryption, surveillance etc. -> new vulnerabilities

What Drives Growth?

• Inertia – based on centuries of thinking and practice: assumes more = better

• Convenience – more wealth = more choices (?)

• Fear – alternatives seen as too challenging

• Economics – fundamental assumptions: problems of growth ‘solved’ by more growth?

• ‘Short termism’ – failure of foresight

The Digital Revolution

Profoundly disruptive Radical disintermediation Loss of professions & a

plethora of new ones Ambiguous – opportunities

and threats multiply Exerting ‘backward

adaptation’ on everyone Rise of the ‘Internet

Oligarchs’ New ‘Panopticon’?

The Anthropocene

The Anthropocene defines Earth's most recent geologic time period as being human-influenced, or anthropogenic, based on overwhelming global evidence that atmospheric, geologic, hydrologic, biospheric and other earth system processes are now altered by humans. The word combines the root ‘anthropo’, meaning ‘human’ with the root ‘-cene’, the standard suffix for ‘epoch’ in geologic time.

Source: Eric Ellis http://www.eoearth.org/article/Anthropocene

Case Study: Limits to Growth

Since the late 1980s the earth’s people have been using more of the planet’s resources each year than could be regenerated … the ecological footprint of global society has overshot the earth’s capacity to provide … The potential consequences of this overshoot are profoundly dangerous.

Meadows: LtG 1972; 30-Year Update, 2004; Randers: 2052 – Global Forecast, 2012

After ‘Limits…’

Careful, critical re-evaluation

Comparison of ‘standard run’ with reality: a close match

Renewed credibility, interest and relevance of LtG perspective Sources: Turner, G. CSIRO, 2008-9; Bardi,

U, Springer, 2011; Higgs, K. MIT, 2014

Ways Forward via Emerging Narratives: Collapse to Descent

Collapse: deterministic, de-motivating, largely beyond human and social control

Descent: possibility of intervention at many stages, strategies can be explored, many options available, non-deterministic and hopeful

Sources: Holmgren, Future Scenarios, 2009; Greer, The Long Descent, 2008 & The Ecotechnic Future, 2009; Fry, Design Futures, 2009; Jackson, T. Prosperity Without Growth, 2009; Jackson, R. Occupy World Street, 2012; 2052, Randers, 2052 Global Forecast, 2012

Holmgren’s Version

Holmgren, D. Future Scenarios, Chelsea Green, 2009

Priority Tasks

• Re-examine / revise notions of growth• Meta-goals of equity and sustainability• Balance technical with human & cultural

development:• conventional to post-con outlooks• ego-, to socio- & world-centric

worldviews• Viable forward views should include:

structural, cultural, intentional and behavioural factors (but very few do)

Task 1

Tell the truth with clarity, mindfulness, inclusivity…and humour!

Task 2

Detailed exploration of, and public involvement in, understanding descent pathways

Maintaining Equilibrium

• Optimism & pessimism poorly understood – simplistic & limiting

• The current global outlook is not merely ‘depressing’ - it provides new or renewed sources of motivation

• Enormous potential for innovation and constructive change

• Future as series of challenges (rather than ‘a disaster that’s already happened’)

A Push and Pull Dynamic

Out of comfort zones Toward expanded awareness & capability

‘Waking Up’ Within Four Worldviews (UL quadrant)

Pre-conventional – Unreflective transition between sleep & wakefulness Conventional - Becoming aware of new ideas, opportunities & resources Post-conventional - Opening to new realms of possibility, ways of knowing, social construction etc Integral - Radically broader & deeper context. ‘Self’ can be attuned to

phenomena on many levels and resonate with them without identifying exclusively with any of them

Sources: Wilber, Integral Psychology, 2000; Hayward, Resolving the Moral Impediments to Foresight Action, 2003; Slaughter, Biggest Wake-Up Call, chap. 9.

‘Proto Solutions’ in Four Domains

The infrastructure needs to be re-developed for sustainable uses

Interior Exterior

Ind

ivid

ua

lC

ollec

tive

Individuals need to elevate their consciousness & capacities to more inclusive stages

Organisations and societies need to move on toward more integrated states and stages of development

We need to lift our level of competence & performance in a number of areas

Source: Slaughter, R. The Biggest Wake-Up Call in History, 2010

Creating Useful Forward Views

Range of methods Four quadrant metaperspective (AQAL) Trained personnel & purpose-built ‘niches’ Real commitment to foresight at all levels

Institutions of Foresight

Institute for the Future

• Ten year forecast• Technology horizons• Health• Workable futures• Food futures• Future of learning• Future for good fellow ship

program• Governance futures lab

Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning (Singapore)

Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning

Advanced data analytics Systems modelling Perspective sharing

Technology innovation framework

Professional Support

Implications for Local Govt

• Does local govt have access to high quality foresight? If not, why not?

• Currently we lack an appropriate infrastructure• Review and evaluate overseas examples from:

Finland, France, Singapore, etc.• Balance internal and external expertise

Implications Contd

• In-house capacity -> stream of intelligence• Support for a foresight culture in local govt• Review current wave of positive social and

economic innovations including:• Transition towns, Permaculture, De-growth, Descent

pathways etc.• Steps toward re-localisation, de-cent energy etc.• Wayfinding project, conscious evolution (Hames)• Many others …

Transformative Options Deep design, transformative brief (Fry) etc. Reinvent corporations, remove perverse

subsidies, tax ‘Internet Oligarchs’ Re-localisation, resilience as social goals Education facing forward (not back & not just IT) Active pursuit of social foresight at all levels

Transformative Action

Transition towns seek to build resilience in face of peak oil and climate change

Positive visioning - not campaigning against…

Locality based Process of inner and outer

transition Ideals of openness and

inclusion – but… Low-hanging fruit?

Source: Hopkins, Transition Handbook, 2008

Conclusions

We tend to underestimate the power of change and to stay with the familiar & known…

But, the near term future is highly unstable and exceptionally challenging

Can deal with it if we engage with the issues and build capacity

Business-as-usual as the least credible option

The Garfield Option