forest carbon emission abatement and ......forest carbon emission abatement and sequestration in a...
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FOREST CARBON EMISSION
ABATEMENT AND
SEQUESTRATION IN A GLOBAL
CONTEXT
Brent Sohngen, Ohio State University
Sara Ohrel, USEPA
Suk-won Choi, Ohio State University
Disclaimer
Thoughts & concepts expressed today are
those of the presenters only and do not
reflect any position or sentiment of the
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Points
• Early estimates suggested low costs and high quantities
• Modeling advancements have increased costs, but forest carbon should be around 30% of total abatement globally.
• Large proportion of the abatement should arise from land management in addition to land use change.
• Models are also relevant for calculating effects of implementation choices (leakage, transactions costs, etc.).
Forest Carbon Sequestration: Early Literature
• Range of estimates: $1 - $187
– Stokes and Richards, 1995, 2000
– Sedjo et al., 1995
• IPCC Second Assessment Concludes (1996):
– 60-87 billion tons carbon could be sequestered
– Up to 700 million hectares of land
– Cost = $2 - $8 per ton
Early U.S. Studies
Study Discount
Carbon
Approx.
Annual Flux
(million tons
per year)
Marginal
Cost
($$ per ton)
Sedjo (1989) No 2900 $3.50
Moulton and Richards (1990) No 23 – 45 $9 – 11
Adams et al (1993) No 29 – 56 $13 – 19
Parks and Hardie (1995) No 44 – 88 $21 – 51
Stavins (1999) Yes 518 < $136
Plantinga et al. (1999)1 Yes 0.8 - 3.7 $15 - $90
Adams et al. (1999) Yes 16 – 73 $5 – 21
Concerns with earliest studies
• Static – Forests are dynamic; decisions today have long-term
effects (user cost)
– Investments
• Prices exogenous – Large scale policies will alter prices and influence
efficiency.
• Lack of global policy coverage – Other regions likely will engage in stronger policy than
the US.
Concerns with earliest studies
• Static – Forests are dynamic; decisions today have long-term
effects (user cost)
– Investments
Initial
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
10 20 30 40 50 60Age
Millio
n H
ecta
res
Baseline
High DamageYear 20
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
10 20 30 40 50 60
Age
Millio
n H
ecta
res
Baseline
High Damage
Southern US Mixed Forest
Initial Age Class Distribution
Southern US Mixed Forest
Age Class Distribution at Year 20
Concerns with earliest studies • Prices exogenous
– Large scale policies will alter prices and influence efficiency.
Concerns with earliest studies • Lack of global policy coverage
– Other regions likely will engage in stronger policy than the US.
Total Carbon Storage Forestland Area C Intensity
Billion Tons % Million ha % Tons/ha Boreal/Temperate/Mid-Latitude
North Am. 277 24% 729 18% 380 Europe 34 3% 279 7% 122 Russia 323 28% 887 21% 364 China 33 3% 132 3% 250 Oceania 51 4% 398 10% 128
Subtotal 718 63% 2,425 58% 298
Tropical/Low-Latitude
South Am. 222 19% 888 21% 250 Asia-Pacific 91 8% 312 8% 292 Africa 115 10% 525 13% 219
Subtotal 428 37% 1,725 42% 248
Global Total 1,146 100% 4,150 100% 277
Source: Dixon et al. (1999; 1994)
Dynamic models
• Developed in 1990s
– Continually enhanced to present
• Range of regional coverage
• Fixed many of the earlier problems
– Consider the investment problem
– Prices are endogenous.
Results from dynamic models
• Forest carbon sequestration involves land use and management, in roughly equal proportions
• Nearly all regions of the world can participate in forest carbon sequestration
• Program can continue to deliver carbon over time (not just an initial benefit)
• Can account for 30% of total abatement activity this century.
• Land use has potentially large implications for carbon prices/climate policy
• Market leakage an important consideration.
Results from dynamic models
• Forest carbon sequestration involves land use and management, in roughly equal proportions.
Temperate Zone (AEA, 20 yr, r=5%)
0.00
0.30
0.60
0.90
10 20 50 100
$/t C
Pro
port
ion Set-aside %
Market %
Mgmt %
Age %
Aff/Def %
Tropical (AEA, 20 yr, r=5%)
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
10 20 50 100
$/t C
Pro
port
ion
Mgmt %
Age %
Aff/Def %
Temperate Zone (AEA, 100 yr, r=5%)
0.00
0.30
0.60
0.90
10 20 50 100
$/t C
Pro
po
rtio
n
Set-aside %
Market %
Mgmt %
Age %
Aff/Def %
Tropical (AEA, 100 yr, r=5%)
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
10 20 50 100
$/t C
Pro
po
rtio
n
Mgmt %
Age %
Aff/Def %
Sohngen, B., A. Golub, and T.W. Hertel. 2009. "The Role of Forestry in Carbon Sequestration in General Equilibrium Models. Chapter 11 in Economic
Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy, edited by T.W. Hertel, S.K. Rose, and R.S.J. Tol. New York: Routledge. 343 p.
Results from dynamic models
• Nearly all regions of the world can
participate in forest carbon sequestration
Sohngen, B. 2010. Forestry Carbon Sequestration. Chapter 3 in Smart Solutions to Climate Change: Comparing Costs and Benefits. Edited by B.
Lomborg. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 413 p.
Sohngen, B. 2010. Forestry Carbon Sequestration. Chapter 3 in Smart Solutions to Climate Change: Comparing Costs and Benefits. Edited by B.
Lomborg. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 413 p.
Tons CO2
Sequestered
In 2030 per
Current ha
Of forest.
4-6
3.7 2.5
0.9 0.5
0.5
0.2
1.7
Results from dynamic models
• Program can continue to deliver carbon
over time (not just an initial benefit)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Mill
ion
t C
O2
pe
r ye
ar
Optimal Scenario
2 Deg. C Limit
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
$/t
CO
2
Optimal Scenario
2 Deg C Limit
Sohngen, B. 2010. Forestry Carbon Sequestration. Chapter 3 in Smart Solutions to Climate Change: Comparing Costs and Benefits. Edited by B.
Lomborg. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 413 p.
Results from dynamic models
• Can account for 30% of total abatement
activity this century.
2030 2050 2100
Optimal
Cum. (Gt CO2) 225 515 1616
% Forest 65% 52% 30%
% Energy 35% 48% 70%
2 deg
Cum. (Gt CO2) 238 575 2410
% Forest 63% 50% 34%
% Energy 37% 50% 66%
Sohngen, B. 2010. Forestry Carbon Sequestration. Chapter 3 in Smart Solutions to Climate Change: Comparing Costs and Benefits. Edited by B.
Lomborg. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 413 p.
Results from dynamic models
• Land use has potentially large implications
for carbon prices/climate policy
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$ p
er
ton
CO
2
2 Deg C (Energy Only)
2 Deg C (Energy + Forestry)
40% red.
In carbon
prices
Sohngen, B. 2010. Forestry Carbon Sequestration. Chapter 3 in Smart Solutions to Climate Change: Comparing Costs and Benefits. Edited by B.
Lomborg. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 413 p.
Results from dynamic models
• Market leakage an important consideration.
• Range: 10 – 90% – (Alig, 1997; Murray et al., 2004; Sohngen and
Brown, 2004)
– Smaller range for afforestation projects
(10 – 50%)
– Larger range for forest protection projects
(10 – 90%)
• Activity shifting estimates smaller
Empirical vs Optimization?
Conclusions
• Dynamic models have provided numerous
policy relevant insights
• Additional challenges do remain:
– Global modeling of additional sectors (biofuels;
agriculture)
– Influence of climate change on carbon
sequestration
– Modeling uncertainty