forest health in the drying climate of southwest western australia niels brouwers, t. lyons, g....
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![Page 1: Forest health in the drying climate of southwest Western Australia Niels Brouwers, T. Lyons, G. Hardy n.brouwers@murdoch.edu.au](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649ebc5503460f94bc592e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Forest health in the drying climate of southwest Western Australia
Niels Brouwers, T. Lyons, G. Hardy
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• Climate change in Australia
• Climate change in southwest Western Australia (SWWA)
• Forest declines in SWWA
• Eucalyptus wandoo decline study
Overview
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Temperature change
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Rainfall change
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Southwest of Western Australia
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Temperature changes in SWWA
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Rainfall changes in SWWA
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Forest declines in SWWA
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Eucalyptus gomphocephala (tuart) decline
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Eucalyptus wandoo (wandoo) decline
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Eucalyptus wandoo decline study
• Objectives
• Hypotheses
• Methods
• Results
• Discussion
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Objective
• To investigate the relationship between changes in wandoo health and climate related variables
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Hypotheses
• Declines in health are related to:– Decreasing rainfall
– Decreasing soil moisture availability
– Increasing temperatures
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Methods
• Surveys across the geographical distribution of wandoo were carried out in 2002 and 2008
• Crown health was estimated at 123 sites
• Bureau of Meteorology data and modelled soil moisture1 were used in the analyses
1 Raupach MR, PR Briggs, V Haverd, EA King, M Paget, CM Trudinger (2008a), Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP). CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Component: Final Report for Phase 3. <http://www.csiro.au/awap>.
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Results & Discussion
• Declines in health are related to:– Decreasing rainfall
• Indirectly
– Decreasing soil moisture availability• Indirectly
– Increasing temperatures• Yes
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400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
Precipitation_76.05
Ch
an
ge
in
cro
wn
he
alt
h
Adjusted R-squared: 0.138, F-statistic: 20.54 on 1 and 121 DF, p-value: 1.384e-05
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Adjusted R-squared: 0.01231, F-statistic: 2.52 on 1 and 121 DF, p-value: 0.115
400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
-60
-40
-20
0
Average rainfall
Ra
infa
ll c
ha
ng
e
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0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
Soil_Moist_L2_76.05
Ch
an
ge
in
cro
wn
he
alt
h
Adjusted R-squared: 0.1205 , F-statistic: 17.72 on 1 and 121 DF, p-value: 4.947e-05
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Adjusted R-squared: 0.1506, F-statistic: 22.63 on 1 and 121 DF, p-value: 5.488e-06
-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
Max_Temp_02.07_96.01
Ch
an
ge
in
cro
wn
he
alt
h
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Adjusted R-squared: 0.6629 , F-statistic: 240.9 on 1 and 121 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16
400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Average rainfall
Ma
x t
em
pe
ratu
re c
ha
ng
e
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Conclusion
• All together this study indicates that the negative trend in wandoo health is (at least partially) driven by the changes in climate that the southwest of Western Australia has been experiencing over the last 15-30 years.