Forest simulation models in Greece: main developments and challenges

WG1-WG2-WG3Dr. Ioannis Meliadis & Dr. Kostas Spanos

Forest Research Institute, Thessaloniki, Greece

COST ACTION FP0603: Forest models for research and decision support in sustainable forest management

1st Workshop and Management Committee Meeting.Institute of Silviculture, BOKU.

8-9 of May 2008Vienna, Austria

Main features of country forests

Forest cover (total/share): 6,513,000 Ha - about 49.5% of the land (industrial forests 25.4% of the land, non-industrial forests 23.9%).

Growing stock, annual growth and cuts: 138,107,130 m3 (41 m3/Ha) - industrial forests (56.10% conifers, 43,90% broadleaves). 3,812,538 m3 (2.76%) - mean annual growth- industrial forests 1.14 m3/Ha (2,76%) – mean annual net increment (for all species).

Main species: Fir, Pine, Beech, Oak, Poplar, Plane tree

Main non-wood products and services: water, grazing, game, recreation

Main risks: illegal cutting, fires, biotic hazards, drought

Management and silvicultural characteristics: Plenty of unmanaged forests- Low profitability of timber High value of some non-timber products and services Complex forests: mixed and irregular Specialised areas on plantations (mainly poplars and pines)

Main features of high forests in Greece

Forest cover (total/share): 25.124.180 ha - 19,63%

Growing stock, annual growth and cuts: 153,5 mil m3, 4 m3/year (2,3 for coniferous and 1,5 m3/ha for broadleaves), 2,5 mil m3 (or 1,2 /ha/year)

Main species:Quercus spp (22,6%), Pinus nigra (8,72%), Abies cephalonica (8,34%), Fagus silvatica (5,17%), Pinus nigra (4,33%).

Main non-wood products and services:Biodiversity, recreation, soil protection, water source protection, hunting.

Main risks:Forest fires, overgrazing, drought, air pollution, illegal cuttings and land use changes.

Management and silvicultural characteristics:- Bad forest quality and health- non strategic plants for the next years

Forest modelling approaches and trends

Empirical models

Main types of models developed Tree level models exist for the main forest trees species. Diameter distribution models for the main species in given areas to implement individual-

tree models with stand-level data.Trends in modelling The trend has been towards individual tree-level modelling due to the type of forests and

silvicultural systems.

Recent research is concentrating in: Modelling regeneration Modelling site quality in uneven-aged and mixed forests Modelling non-timber products and services Modelling risk Developing forest management information systems based on models

Trends in modellingThe existing trend in modelling can be found in some research programs, but is to ebvaluate

existing models. Recent research is concentrating inForest fire models, biodiversity, soil erosion, GIS-based forest information system.

Mechanistic models

Forest modelling approaches and trends

Examples of GROWTH MODELS in Forestry in Greece

(Developed by the FRI in Athens – Lab. of Silviculture and Forest Genetics)

Model for Pinus halepensis (Alepo pine)a1 = (HE)(EXP(16.52095/ dHE))

h = a1(EXP(-16.52095/d))Vα = 3.3041044 10-5 d 1.790332 h1.181907

Vά = (5.9154438 10 –5 d 0.790332 + 6.451669 10 – 4 d –0.209668) ( h 1.181907 )

Vε = 0.01969779 + 1.195396 VαΡ ΚΛ/Vα = -2.83318 + 0.3369517d

Dε = 3.454176 + 1.016526 dDα = -3.066645 + 0.9027724 DεΔΠΤ 60 = Ηο / 1.1109969 (EXP (-6.315464/A))

D = 0.4612958d 0.6681564

Model for Pinus brutia (calabrian pine)a1 = (HE)(EXP(15.68068/ dHE))

h = a1(EXP(-15.68068/d))

Vα = 2.2000178 10-5 d 1.784734 h1.338171

Vά = (3.926447 10 –5 d 0.784734 + 4.616392 10 – 4 d –

0.215266) ( h 1.338171 )

Vε = 0.0140711 + 1.199025 Vα

Ρ ΚΛ/Vα = d(EXP(-0.3833344 – 34.60379 /d))

Dε = 3.665222 + 1.039437 d

Dα = -2.188551 + 0.856878 Dε

ΔΠΤ 60 = Ηο / 1.2566101 (EXP (-13.70506/A))

D1 = 0.4638421d 0.6931317

D2 = 0.5340905d 0.7210009

D3 = 0.6468247d 0.7098469

Model for Pinus nigra (black pine)

a1 = (HE)(EXP(13.30762/ dHE)) h = a1(EXP(-13.30762/d)) Vα = 3.9172327 10-5 d 1.884915 h1.043285

Vά = (7.3836506 10 –5 d 0.884915 + 5.4385449 10 –4 d –0.115085) ( h 1.043285)

Vε = 0.0217237 + 1.177424 Vα Dε = 1.663105 + 1.098303 d Dα = -1.353695 + 0.8871564 Dε ΔΠΤ 70 = Ηο / 1.400907 (EXP (-

23.59809/A)) D = d(EXP(-2.129778 + 6.001434 /d))

Model for Abies borissi regis (hybrid fir)

a1 = (HE)(EXP(16.24608/ dHE)) h = a1(EXP(-16.24608/d)) Vα = 6.3661346 10-5 d 1.768135 h1.060723

Vά = (1.1256185 10 –4 d 0.768135 + 1.0970499 10 – 3 d –0.231865) ( h 1.060723 )

Vε = 0.024065+ 1.101215 Vα Dε = 0.7681465 + 1.211613 d Dα = -0.6885109 + 0.9633104 Dε ΔΠΤ 110 = Ηο / 1.1478617 (EXP (-

15.16909/A)) D = 1.64821+ 0.104426 d

Model for Quercus spp. (oak) a1 = (HE)(EXP(11.72988/dHE)) h = a1(EXP(-11.72988/d)) Vα = 2.5182532 10-5 d 1.968549 h1.12419

Vά = (4.9573048 10 –5 d 0.968549 + 3.320723 10 –4 d –0.031451) ( h 1.12419 )

Vε = 0.01631057 + 1.134771 Vα Ρ ΚΛ/Vα = EXP(4.587461 – 46.14708 /d) Dε = 2.061993 + 1.069939 d Dα = -1.510584 + 0.9658016 Dε ΔΠΤ 90 = Ηο / 1.2380145 (EXP (-

19.2158/A)) D = d(EXP(-1.703951 + 4.191526 /d))

Model for Fagus spp. (beech)

a1 = (HE)(EXP(11.81501/ dHE)) h = a1(EXP(-11.81501/d)) Vα = 4.0863913 10-5 d 1.985882 h0.9478463

Vά = (8.1150909 10 –5 d 0.985882 + 4.576273 10 – 4 d –0.014118) ( h 0.9478463)

Vε = 0.0041674+ 1.059557 Vα Ρ ΚΛ/Vα = EXP(3.6425468 – 38.90101 /d) Dε = 1.786926 + 1.113821d Dα = -0.43 + 0.981 Dε ΔΠΤ 105 = Ηο / 1.1742275 (EXP (-

16.8641/A)) D = 0.71155796 d 0.6468389

Where: a1 = a factor selection of a height curve (m) HE = a mean height for estimation of the above

factor (m) dHE = the mean barked diameter at breast

height corresponding to the above the mean height (cm)

h = a height of a tree (m) d = the barked diameter of the same tree at

breast height (cm) Vα = the unbarked stem volume of the same

tree (m3) Vά = the stem rise factor of the same tree

(m3/cm) Ρ ΚΛ/Vα = the percentage of branch wood of the

same tree with respect to unbarked stem volume (%)

Vε = the barked stem volume of the same tree (m3)

Dε = the barked stump diameter of the same tree (cm)

Dα = the unbarked stump diameter of the same tree (cm)

ΔΠΤ α = the site index at an age α, i.e., α = 105 years

H0 = the dominant height of a stand (m) A = the age of the stand at breast height (years) EXP(X) =the base e of the neperian logarithms

at power X D = crown diameter (m) D1 = crown diameter for wood production (m) D2 = crown diameter for wood production with

tapping (m) D1 = crown diameter for wood production with

tapping or tapping and grazing (m)

If there are any models for predicting the yield of non-timber products or estimating different services (scenic beauty, recreation), list them. If not skip the slide.

The Soil Erosion Risk Assessment Maps. USLE equation: A tn/ha/year = R * K * LS * C * PIn this project our institute includes the development of methodology and products generation (Soil erosion risk maps) using EO data and ancillary data into GIS environment.

See also:1. Spanos, K.A., Feest, A., 2007. A review of the assessment of biodiversity in forest

ecosystems. Management of Environmental Quality, 18 (4): 475-486.

Modelling non-timber products and services

If there are any models for predicting the risk (occurrence/damage) of hazards (fires, wind, snow, etc), list them. If not skip the slide.

SPREAD OF Heterobasidion IN STANDS OF Picea and Pinus (see MOHIEF project)

Models for predicting risk of hazards

Describe a country research hihlight/finding in the context of modelling which can be relevant for other countries

You can use more than on slide

See references:

1. Spanos, K.A., Feest, A., 2007. A review of the assessment of biodiversity in forest ecosystems. Management of Environmental Quality, 18 (4): 475-486.

2. Woodward, S., J.E. Pratt, T. Pukkala, K.A. Spanos, G. Nicolotti, C. Tomiczek, J. Stenlid, B. Marçais & P. Lakomy, 2002. MOHIEF: MODELLING OF HETEROBASIDION IN EUROPEAN FORESTS, AN EU-FUNDED RESEARCH PROGRAMME.

Research highlight

Future challenges

To collaborate with other experts on forest models. To develop forest models for biodiversity indicators to use

in forest biodiversity assessment and monitoring. To develop forest models to predict the effect of climate

change on biodiversity quality. To improve the sustainable forest management practices. To incorporate the experience of other institutions to into

our research plans. To facilitate our scope for our “models” for the Greek

reality.

Innovative references

1) Apatsidis, L.D., Ziagas, E.Ch., Perris, I.G., Sotiropoulos, D.S., Tziovaras, E.Z., 1999. Models for Haleppo pine, Calabrian pine, Black pine, Fir, Oak and Beech. Forest research (New Series) Vol. 12, 104 p.. National Agricultural Research Foundation (N.AG.RE.F.), Athens (in Greek with English summary).

2) Kaloudis, S., A. Roussos and P. Kerkides, 1999 "Investigation of mountainous vegetation characteristics using GIS technology", International Journal of Balkan Ecology, 2 (3), 58-73

3) Spanos, K.A., Feest, A., 2007. A review of the assessment of biodiversity in forest ecosystems. Management of Environmental Quality, 18 (4): 475-486.

4) Toth, B.B., Feest, A., 2007. A simple method to assess macrofungal sporocarp biomass for investigating ecological change. Can. J. Botany 85: 652-658.

5) Woodward, S., J.E. Pratt, T. Pukkala, K.A. Spanos, G. Nicolotti, C. Tomiczek, J. Stenlid, B. Marçais & P. Lakomy, 2002. MOHIEF: MODELLING OF HETEROBASIDION IN EUROPEAN FORESTS, AN EU-FUNDED RESEARCH PROGRAMME.