forex market insight 17 august 2011

8/6/2019 Forex Market Insight 17 August 2011

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Market Insights 17 August 2011

Market sentiment ends the overnight session more positively following early losses

Risk instruments sent sharply lower in early trading after German GDP disappoints

EUR sees choppy evening as Merkel and Sarkozy summit offers few solutions; financial tax could concern

USD generally flat overnight, although sees gains against CHF; AUD bounces from 1.0400

US markets end the session lower after three monster days of gains; Dow closes 0.7% lower

Tonight: Inflation in focus as EU CPI out at 7pm and US PPI at 10.30pm

Headlines

AUD/USD

XAU/USD

Resistance

1.0530

Support

1.0400Market Sentiment

Bullish

The Aussie dollar bounced from 1.0400 again overnight giving traders the opportunity to take new longs. For now, the Aussielooks to be trapped between 1.0400 and 1.0530. A break of 1.0530 will be seen as a buying opportunity, while any pullbackto 1.0400 will also be seen as buyable.

Gold continued to grind higher overnight. The market will now be eyeing the 1810 level in expectation of a re-test of the all-time highs. Any pullback to 1760 is likely to be taken advantage of by the bulls, while a break of 1790 has the potential for ashort-term move to 1810 (or even higher).

Resistance

1810

Support

1760Market Sentiment

Bullish


2/4

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY has produced some real bunched-up and congested trade over the last week and the market looks to bproducing a neutral symmetrical triangle at these lower levels. The market will be waiting for a break out of this pattern buany move is likely to be short-lived unless we see a clear break below 76.40 or intervention from the BoJ.

The GBP/USD continued with its push higher overnight before running into resistance at 1.6475. Any move above this levewill be seen as a buying opportunity. That said, theres the change of a move back to 1.6350/400, and traders will use anymove to build new long positions.

The Euros had two failed attempts to break above 1.4450 over the last 24 hours or so, and this paints a more bearish picturefor the EURUSD pair. This sets up a move back to 1.4300 but traders will be watching the 1.4300 for any signs of a bounce.

Resistance

1.4450

Support


Rangebound

Resistance

1.6475

Support

1.6350/400Market Sentiment

Bullish

Resistance

77.00/20

Support


Bearish


3/4

SILVER

USD/CHF

GBP/JPY

The GBP/JPY has continued higher, boosted by the gains in the GBP/USD, but the overall trend remains down. Traders will bwaiting for an appropriate signal at higher levels to initiate new shorts.

The USD/CHF bounced back strongly to resistance at 80.00 before heading lower, and traders will be watching the 80.00 levefor any chance to take new shorts. However, be aware that a move above 80.00 will change the markets view to bullish.

Silver now looks to be forming a bullish ascending triangle, but any break higher will run into several layers of resistancbetween 40.00 and 40.40. As weve discussed previously, a clear break of 42.00 is needed for silver to take flight to the altime highs at 50.00.

Resistance

40.00/40

Support


Bullish

Resistance

80.00

Support


Bearish

Resistance

127.00

Support


Bearish


4/4

AUD/JPY

OIL

Economic Calendar

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F/Cast Last F/Cast Last

AUD: MI Leading Index -0.1% GBP MPC Minutes AUD: Wage Price 0.9% 0.8% EUR: CPI 2.5% 2.5% EUR: Current Account -3.6b -5.2b USD: PPI 0.0% -0.4% GBP: Claimant Count 20.1k 24.5k USD: Crude Oil -0.4m -5.2m

No real change on crude with oil still unable to break above 88.00. Traders will be waiting for a break above 88.00 to take

new long positions.

The Aussie-yen hasnt really followed through after its break above 80.00 and traders will now be a little cautious until we seea further break above 80.75.A break above 80.75 will be seen as a buying opportunity with targets back to 82.00

Resistance

88.00Support

84.00/50Market Sentiment

Bullish

Resistance

80.75Support


Bullish

forex market insight 17 august 2011

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