forex market insight 18 august 2011

8/6/2019 Forex Market Insight 18 August 2011

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Market Insights 18 August 2011

Markets see another calm night as last weeks volatility dies down

USD resumes decline as markets focus on structural dollar weakness

GBP surges higher despite bearish numbers from jobs, BoE minutes

USD/CHF heads back lower as traders underwhelmed by SNB move

US markets end the session lower after three monster days of gains; Dow closes 0.7% lower

Tonight: US data will be key with CPI and employment due tonight

Headlines

AUD/USD

XAU/USD

Resistance

1.0600/20

Support

1.0520/480Market Sentiment

Bullish

The Aussie dollar continued higher overnight after breaking above resistance at 1.0520. The pair found resistance up at1.6000 and we might see a short term pullback in the Asian session. A pullback to 1.0520/480 will be seen as a buyingopportunity.

Golds moved into an extremely tight consolidation phase as we approach the all-time highs and this suggests we are seeinga little more caution from the bulls. A little nervousness is understandable as we approach the alltime highs, but traders arestill likely to focus on the long side around 1775/80.

Resistance

1795

Support

1775/80Market Sentiment

Bullish


2/4

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY broke below the symmetrical triangle we identified yesterday but the move lower was unable to push below kesupport at 76.40. Traders will be continuing to look to sell any push higher toward 77.00.

The GBP/USD surged higher overnight despite generally gloomy economic data from UK jobs and a dovish reading from theBoE minutes. After pulling back to 1.6350 the pair gained more than 250 pips and the pound now finds resistance at 1.6590.a break of 1.6590 is bullish.

The Euro presents a mixed picture, because while the technical suggest the Euro is due for a push higher, there are multipllayers of resistance above the current price. A break above 1.4540 has targets to 1.4580 and then 1.4690. The bears will blooking to sell around 1.4540.

Resistance

1.4540

Support

1.4300/50Market Sentiment

Bullish

Resistance

1.6590

Support

1.6475Market Sentiment

Bullish

Resistance

77.00/20

Support


Bearish


3/4

SILVER

USD/CHF

GBP/JPY

The GBP/JPY rolled over from resistance at 127.00 and this sets up a move to 125.00. Traders will be working any move higheto 127.00 as an opportunity to take new shorts.

The USD/CHF remains in the trading range and traders used the move to 80.00 for new short positions. The trend remainbearish and a break below 78.00 will see further selling pressure.

Silver continues to struggle with resistance around 40.00/40 and traders will be waiting for a clear break above 40.40 for newlongs. While the push higher will continue to face strong resistance , the bias remains to the upside.

Resistance

40.00/40

Support


Bullish

Resistance

80.00

Support


Bearish

Resistance

127.00

Support


Bearish


4/4

AUD/JPY

OIL

Economic Calendar

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F/Cast Last F/Cast Last

JPY: Trade Balance CAD: Leading Index 0.2% 0.3% GBP: Retail Sales -0.12t -0.19t USD: Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.3% CAD: Leading Index 0.3% 0.2% USD: Unemployment Claims 402k 395k CAD: Wholesale Sales 0.3% 1.9% USD: Existing Homes Sales 4.94m 4.77m USD: Philly Fed 4.0 3.2

Oil produced a false break above 88.00 overnight and this sets up a short-term move lower. That said, the market is likely to

remain bullish, and any move back to 86.00 will be seen as a buying opportunity.

The Aussie-yen looks bullish after it broke above 81.00. Traders will be looking for a pullback to 80.40 for new longs, while abreak above 81.10 will also be seen as bullish.

Resistance

88.00Support


Bullish

Resistance

81.10Support


Bullish

forex market insight 18 august 2011

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