forex presentation - candles, setups, probabilities

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Forex Presentation - Candles, Setups, Probabilities

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Page 1: Forex Presentation - Candles, Setups, Probabilities
Page 2: Forex Presentation - Candles, Setups, Probabilities

Ad. Oliver Velez - Tools and tactics for the master day trader (swing trading). If you find a stock that meets strictly the criteria and definition of an uptrend (higher highs and higher lows), your job as a swing trader is to buy every single decline, not some of them, not a few of them, but every single one. The only question you have to answer is when.

Ad. John Murphy - High Probability Chart Reading. If a stock breaks its 20 day moving average, it will normally decline to its 50 day moving average. So the 50 day becomes the next target. If it breaks the 50 day moving average, it will usually drop down to the 200 day moving average. And those are the 3 that I use the most frequently.

Ad. Martin Pring – Technical analysis for short term traders. You really just need to pick on four or five indicators. And that’s what most people would do, I think most of the time is pick on their favorite indicators. And, what I do on my daily charts for example is I look at the rate of change is the number 1 indicator I look at.

Ad. Tony Oz – Stock trading wizard (day trading wizard). If you don’t know how to write a full blown trading plan like I have in the stock wizards trading book, what I really recommend doing is: write 2 numbers. Even if you’re doing intraday trading, Write 2 numbers, write your exit numbers: write your price target, write your stop loss. And write them down on paper when you trade. Because if it’s written down on paper is easier to have the discipline to follow it. If it’s in your head, it’s adjustable.

Ad. Robert Deel - The inteligent online trader. Discipline, tools, techniques and technology. Each individual stoc k and each individual market has 3 components: A trend component, a profitability component, and a high probability component. And what I do is I give these specific numbers and I store them, and then I have that list, remember I told you about, that propped up of 6 or more securities? Then I narrow that down with this methodology to 3.

Alan Farley – Author of Master Swing Trader.

As we build our skills the syndrome of buying the tops and selling the lows starts to fade. Before the execution we’re dealing with time and we’re dealing with price. Determining the exact point in price and time. A couple minutes on the left side of this image before the rest.

Page 3: Forex Presentation - Candles, Setups, Probabilities

Opportunity comes in many many forms. Let’s talk about some key points as far as swing trading is concerned. One of the biggest mistake is to think we’re in a ranging market when we’re in a treding market and vice versa. Market’s trend 20-15% of the time and rangebound 75% to 85% of the time. They’re good for swing traders, using support and resistance.

3D market – different scenarios in different time-frames.

Trade example; Using 200 MA as support (to buy) and 50 MA as resistance (to sell)There are many ways of doing this: some may take 2-3 bars, while other may take 20-30 bars. Trade duration depends on strategy. A sloppy market for instance gives a reason for not holding trades overnight.

Many aspects trade. There are many ways of doing this: some may take 2-3 bars, while other may take 20-30 bars.

Reward risk 3:1 is a good one. Setting it goes back to support resistance, Example with a gap. SL is adjusted to whole numbers.

Price sensitive executionOne of the problems of following the crowd, is that they all bought at a better price and now all want to get out. We want the affirmation of our peers so we enter when all the energy f the trade is gone.

When to enter a trade? We want Convergence: When price points to the same execution point over and over again, in different ways. In this case 4 times: gap open down below support, trendline broken, price breaks 50, “ilan” reversal (very bearish). Others: broken MA, broken trendline, retracement, whatever. If you don’t see convergence, stand aside. If you don’t pick your spots you get crushed.

Look for execution zone and wait: In this case bought at 30 in the first touch whole number (also confirmed by high volume)

Triangle. Lenght after the gap is the same as before the gap. Fibonacci set on 50% on the gap.

Getting ahead of market. Stepping in in low volatility in prepartion for high volatility move. Circle: congestion: on 3rd high,

Page 4: Forex Presentation - Candles, Setups, Probabilities

Steping ahead of the crowd. Buying in the congestion and waiting for the crowd to take you to profit. (notice the gap in the circle, useful ahead)

Steping behind of the crowd. Entering in the pullback to my price sensitive point. If never returns to the price sensitive point: DON’T MAKE THE TRADE. And that’s OK in standing aside.Pullbacks of continuation gaps work exceptionally well, and are hidden secrets of the market

Part of being price sensitive is: You’re gonna miss a lot of trades but first advantage: Low slippage .

Pullbacks of continuation gaps work very well.

Size is strategy. Size is risk control This game is about trading well. It’s not about making money. Specially in your earlier years. As you build your survival credentials you concentrate on improving the return. But as you build your survival credentials you’ve got to play the music right and not worry about the whole piece sounds.

Another example, same pullback (???)

Price gap is a 1 bar pattern. In this example left box corresponds to trade opportunity above bollinger bands (around 75% on time axis)

Risk and Reward is dynamic on a trade. Sometimes we need to be exited based on pure time if nothing happens. Example: in a pullback, if it doesn’t go your way, it’s lowering your odds.

Your odds of jumping into a non-moving market is very high

Page 5: Forex Presentation - Candles, Setups, Probabilities

NYSE TICK (what is this?) check Cyclic nature of markets. Your position for the most part needs to align with those cycles. There are opportunities that define these rules: Best is buy in strong markets, sell in weak markets, being careful in flat market.

Move stops as strategy builds up working through perhaps several pullbacks.

One of our jobs is to determine what can be minor and major resistance in the market (that’s a topic for another couple hours)

Process of what we go through in 4-5 trades in a single day – first we have a setup: parallel price channel

If you can’t see where to get out, don’t get in.

Look at logic of SL’s in 3 and 4.

Taking losses proactivelly helps build your sense of trading power. Helps build your skills.

You have to addapt to changes and market inneficiencies

Accumulation or distribution by insiders is ending. New disclosure rules by SEC is creating these kind of patterns. (gaps: shouldn’t happen technically wise)

Page 6: Forex Presentation - Candles, Setups, Probabilities

Candles are a tool, not a trading system.You cannot trade with candles in isolation.

Traders with higher number of losers than winners, with good PnLs: Let the profits run, cut the losses short.

As the real body shrinks (japanese call them spinning tops)we have small real bodies.

The small real body shows a tug of war between the bulls and the bears with neither one in control. What the spinning tops show is : The ability to move up or down is lacking

Page 7: Forex Presentation - Candles, Setups, Probabilities

DOJI: Japanese say “Market is tired”

Page 8: Forex Presentation - Candles, Setups, Probabilities

If the market breaks above it it’s a bullish breakout

(zhen zu) A chinese military strategist from centuries ago:, giving us n objective view of the market (a great comment about the wisdom of perspective): during an engagement a leader should not be in the midst of his forces but a little distance apart, otherwise his outlook will be distorted and he will misjudge the situation.

Page 9: Forex Presentation - Candles, Setups, Probabilities