formation of the cold war system

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Formation of the d War System

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Formation of the Cold War System

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZx3IAj9f0k

What is a cold war? An intense, sustained political confrontation between

countries, involving all spheres of relations (a war) But without a direct armed clash (cold)

The 20th century Cold War: The process The system

Conflict and cooperation The Cold War started in the framework of an international

order established jointly by Western democracies and the Soviet Union – allies in World War II

It had a cooperative base That order never broke down for the remainder of the

century, despite being tested severely by Cold War conflicts The Cold War can be seen as the process of global

struggles over the specific terms of the international order It came to an end in the 1980s when the struggle subsided,

and the order was reinforced through East-West convergence

The asymmetry: USA and USSR USA leads in the creation of the global order USSR goes along, while maintaining its identity, special

interests, bargaining chips Challenging the West whenever interests would clash Cooperating with the West whenever interests would

demand it Never on a par with the US

The asymmetry: USA and USSR USA leads in the creation of the global order USSR goes along, while maintaining its identity, special

interests, bargaining chips Challenging the West whenever interests would clash Cooperating with the West whenever interests would

demand it Never on a par with the US

The Cold War started unexpectedly early after the end of WWII – almost without a pause

A unique convergence of geopolitical, ideological and military factors Geopolitical Ideological Military

Geopolitical Emergence of a bipolar system: rise of the 2 superpowers

US-Soviet relations became the central axis of world politics

Ideological: A new phase in the Global Civil War

The historic defeat of the Global Right in 1945 empowered the Global Left

Socialism, in various forms, began to look like an attractive alternative to capitalism

Military: Invention of atomic weapons led to a revolution in warfare

A tool for global projection of military power on the cheap A barrier against large-scale warfare

Jump to the 1980s: The world is increasingly multipolar, no longer dominated

by the two superpowers Crisis of socialism, the wave of anti-Western revolutions

gives way to a wave of liberal-democratic revolutions The deadlock in the nuclear arms race, crisis of militarism

The first years after World War II: Who was on the offensive? Who was on the defensive? Who felt threatened and insecure? Who felt confident and aggressive?

Western Fears The crisis of global capitalism The shift to the Left in the politics of Western

countries: socialism on the agenda The upsurge of anti-colonial struggles in the Third

World The emergence of the USSR as the most powerful

state in Eurasia

Soviet Fears Enormous economic losses from the war Problems of controlling society after the war

The war as a school of citizenship Mass exposure to European life The population of new territories under Soviet control The legacy of terror

Fear of a united Western coalition against the USSR, possibility of new wars

Factors of Western self-confidence The USSR is internally weak The US is a powerhouse US had enormous advantages in late 1940s:

50% of global production Nuclear monopoly in 1945-49 Naval and air superiority Ground forces on a par with USSR The role as the main architect of a liberal world

order Totalitarianism will be resisted by most people;

Western liberal-democratic values will ultimately prevail

Factors of Soviet self-confidence The Soviet system passed the test of survival and

strength Soviet assets:

Control of territory: the dominant power in Eurasia A totalitarian system associated with progress The leading role in the Global Left

Capitalism is in systemic crisis The rise of the Global Left - potential Soviet allies

The Global Left: the postwar offensive

EUROPE Yugoslavia and Albania – Communists have come to

power on their own Greece, Italy, France – Communist parties may come to

power on their own Germany, Austria, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria –

defeated states in shambles; Soviet presence a major boost to local Communists

Poland – Soviet presence assures Communist takeover Czechoslovakia – gradual Communist takeover from a

strong domestic base, with Soviet help Moderate, reformist Left makes major political gains in

the West (e.g. Labour Party in Britain)

The West was primarily concerned about survival and rebuilding of capitalism in Western Europe

USSR was primarily concerned about strategic control of Eastern Europe – securing the Western flank

The division of Europe, agreed in 1945, materialized The fate of Germany remained the one major bone of

contention – but even there, the lines established in 1945 helped stabilize the situation

In Asia, it was an open-ended continental struggle – but not between Russia and America

ASIA: Indochina: Vietnamese Communists as the main anti-

colonialist force, proclaim Vietnam’s independence in 1945 China, 1945-49: Communists defeat Nationalists Korea, 1945: Communists control the North with Soviet help India, 1947: Independence won by nationalists supported

by communists Indonesia, Burma: nationalist-communist coalitions lead

anticolonialist campaigns Iran: the rise of a Communist-nationalist alliance Turkey: emergence of a strong Communist-led Left The Mideast

The establishment of Israel - with Soviet support The rise of Arab nationalism against Western colonial rule

The Soviet role in the Global Left’s offensive? To beat the Global Right in World War II to project the image of successful socialism to help install Communist regimes in a few countries to be there as a counterweight to the US

Stalin could control only a small part of the Global Left – in Eastern Europe

He readily betrayed the Left whenever it suited his geopolitical goals

And he would try to engineer a Left-wing takeover of a country whenever he considered it necessary

The postwar surge of the Global Left offered opportunities to Stalin and his regime – but also posed major challenges

US responses to the Global Left’s offensive The core dilemma: suppression or cooptation? The range of

options: Suppression extreme: War against the USSR and the

Global Left Cooptation extreme: Social-democratic reforms of

capitalism, cooptation of the Left, accommodation with the Soviet Union as a status-quo power badly in need of healing.

A search for the middle ground – for effective combinations of both

American elites were split US foreign policy process was heavily politicized and hotly

contested the strategy evolved from crisis to crisis

Winston Churchill declares the Cold War: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8_wQ-5uxV4

First American Cold War President: Harry S. Truman (in office from 1945 to1952)

George Kennan, American diplomat, architect of the policy of Containment of Communism

“Containment of Communism”

A massive, complex, messy, costly, evolving strategy of global counterrevolution

2 levels:

interstate

transnaitonal

The interstate level

Containment of the USSR Nuclear deterrence A chain of anti-Soviet alliances (NATO and others) Economic attrition strategies Propaganda war against Communism Covert operations in Soviet and allied territories

The transnational level

Containment of the Global Left Revival of the global capitalist economy (e.g. the

Marshall Plan) Use of force in various forms, open and covert Information warfare (propaganda) Cooptation: tactical alliances with elements of the

Global Left on anti-Soviet platforms

The two superpowers never had a significant direct armed conflict between them

They fought wars by proxy (Korea, Vietnam, Angola, etc.)But they kept preparing for total military confrontation

Nuclear armsConventional armies and naviesMilitary alliances – NATO, the Warsaw PactSpy wars

New structures of militarismThe military-industrial complexThe national security state

The end of WWII saw

the rise of the two superpowers:

USA and USSR

A bipolar world – something unique in world history

Challenging each other

Containing each other

Trying to control other states to follow them

But also: cooperating with each other to keep their power

Each needed the other as “The Other”

But both wanted to survive

By 1950, containment looked like a manifest failure:

The USSR rapidly rebuilt its economy (5 years instead of expected 15-20 years) and built nuclear weapons

Eastern Europe was firmly under Soviet control China went Communist North Korea invaded the SouthThe image of Communism on the march; unstoppable,

winning1950: Revolt of the American Right against failing Cold War

policy. McCartyismhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=hyBiSk97Hag&feature=related

Did containment work?

Yes: in Europe. Why? There was a geopolitical deal between Stalin and the

West (Yalta) Successful cooptation of the reformist Left Stalin’s influence on Western Communists and his policy

of discouraging revolution

In Asia, these conditions were absent: No deal like Yalta The US refused to co-opt the Left Asian Left-wing forces were mostly out of Soviet

control; Stalin was prepared to gamble (Korea)

By 1950, containment looked like a manifest failure: The USSR rapidly rebuilt its economy (5 years instead of

expected 15-20 years) and went nuclear Soviet totalitarianism hardens, no state breakdown Eastern Europe is firmly under Soviet control Communists take power in China North Korea invades the South with Soviet and Chinese

supportThe image of Communism on the march; unstoppable,

winningRevolt of the American Right against failing Cold War policyhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maLIXQLxvvA

1953 January: Dwight Eisenhower enters the White House. The

Republicans are committed to victory in the Cold War. The war in Korea continues. Stalin is bracing for a world war

ONE OF THE MOST DANGEROUS POINTS IN THE COLD WAR

March: Stalin dies, a new leadership emerges in the Kremlin. It proclaims the goal of peaceful coexistence

March: Release of GULAG prisoners begins July: Armistice in Korea