formula growth limited€¦ · jan 2012 formula growth alpha fund c$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6%...

34
New York 28 West 44th Street, Suite 1516 Montreal 1010 Sherbrooke W. Suite 2300 Investor Wealth Creation Since 1960 Hong Kong (PhoenixInvest) 27/F, Two Exchange Square Formula Growth Limited 2016 U.S. Outlook January 2016

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Page 1: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

New York

28 West 44th Street, Suite 1516

Montreal

1010 Sherbrooke W. Suite 2300

Investor Wealth

Creation Since 1960

Hong Kong

(PhoenixInvest)

27/F, Two Exchange Square

Formula Growth Limited2016 U.S. Outlook

January 2016

Page 2: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

2

Historical context

• Founded in 1960 by John Dobson, we specialize in bottom-up stock selection

• We focus on less efficient markets where we believe more alpha can be generated

• U.S. small/mid cap stocks since 1960 & Asia small/mid cap stocks since 2009

• Long history of outperformance for all our different funds

• C$840 million with a team of 9 investment professionals (16 total)

• Research offices in Montreal, New York City and Hong Kong

• 100% employee owned with strong alignment of interest

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

AUM are estimated as of January 1st 2016

1960 1976 2002 2009 2011 2014

Formula Growth

Fund

First Institutional

Account

Formula Growth

Hedge Fund

Formula Growth

GOF

Formula Growth

Alpha Fund

Formula Growth

Focus Fund

Page 3: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

3

Investment Team: Experienced, Qualified, Stable

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

* Formula Growth Management Company Inc is a U.S. subsidiary 100% owned by Josyd Inc, the parent company of Formula Growth Limited. PhoenixInvest, as of January 28th

2016, will be a majority controlled subsidiary of Josyd Inc, the parent company of Formula Growth Limited.

Name Position LocationYears at

FG

Total

Industry

Randall Kelly, CPA, CFA CEO and Chief Investment Officer Mtl 31 37

John Liddy, MBA President and Director of Research (FGMC Inc.*) NYC 21 25

Tony Staples, CFA Vice President & Senior Portfolio Manager Mtl 18 22

Michael Gentile, CFA Vice President & Senior Portfolio Manager Mtl 14 16

Nelson Cheung, CFA Vice President & Senior Portfolio Manager (PhoenixInvest*) HK 6 16

Charles Haggar, CPA, CFA Vice President & Senior Portfolio Manager Mtl 9 12

Cameron Fortin Portfolio Manager Mtl 11 11

James Sinclair, CFA Vice President & Economist (FGMC Inc.*) NYC 10 10

Lucy Chher Analyst, Trading and Risk Management Mtl 4 4

René Catafago, CA, CFA Executive V-P & Chief Financial Officer Mtl 28 43

Ari Kiriazidis, CFA Vice President Operations and Chief Compliance Mtl 14 14

Rodney McCollam Vice President and Corporate Controller Mtl 15 35

Mathieu Boisvert, M.Sc. Vice President Mtl 2 14

Alexa Dorsainville, CPA Director of Finance Mtl 1 6

Rosanna Vitale Administrative Assistant Mtl 19 19

Tony Naaman Associate Mtl 1 1

INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT

BUSINESS MANAGEMENT

Page 4: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

4

Buy &Sellside

Network of over 55 years

Conferences&

Management meetings

InternalDatabase≈ 3,000 stocks

CompanyExecutives

All products leverage a common research platform

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Universe of 4 000 U.S. SMid stocks

TRADITIONAL LONG ONLY

FG

FUND

Launch 1960

EQUITY LONG SHORT

FG

HEDGE FUND

Launch 2002

EQUITY MARKET

NEUTRAL

FG

ALPHA FUND

Launch 2012

TEAM OF 7 PORTFOLIO MANAGERS

Buy & Sellside

Network of over 25 years

Conferencesand

Management meetings

Quantitative Filters &

Databases

Universe of 2 500 Asian stocks

TRADITIONAL LONG ONLY

JAVELIN SELECT CHINA

Launch 2010

EQUITY LONG SHORT

FG

GOF

Launch 2009

EQUITY

LONG SHORT

PhoenixInvest

PACIFIC

Launch 2010

TEAM OF 3 PORTFOLIO MANAGERS*

CompanyExecutives

* PhoenixInvest, as of January 28th 2016, will be a majority controlled subsidiary of Josyd Inc, the parent company of Formula Growth Limited.

Page 5: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

5

55+ years of success investing U.S. SMid Equities

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Cumulative return:

3x the S&P500 TR

Inception: 1960

Cumulative Return:

3x the S&P500 TR

Annualized Return:

FG Fund: 12%

S&P500 TR: 10% FGHF

FG Alpha

Formula Growth Fund 2015Trailing

3 Yr.

Inception

1960

Formula Growth Fund C$ 9.6% 23.9% 13.0%

Formula Growth Fund US$ -8.2% 11.0% 12.2%

Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All returns are net of fees and in US$ unless specified. The Russell2000 was only launched in 1979.

Page 6: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

6

13+ years of success investing Long/Short U.S. SMid Equities

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Cumulative return:

5x the HFRI EH

3.5x the S&P500 TR

Inception: 2002

Historical Market Capture:115% of positive equity markets

55% of negative equity markets

Annualized Return:FG HF: 19%

S&P500 TR: 8%

HFRI EH: 6%

FGHF FG Alpha

Formula Growth Hedge Fund 2015Trailing

3 Yr.

Inception

Dec 2002

Formula Growth Hedge Fund C$ 25.9% 17.1% 17.4%

Formula Growth Hedge Fund US$ 9.3% 7.3% 19.0%

Oct 07 - Feb 09

S&P500 TR: -51%

HFRI EH: -31%

FG HF: -22%

Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All returns are net of fees and in US$ unless specified. The HFRI EH is a hedge fund index composed of the returns of long/short equity managers.

Page 7: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

7

4+ years of success investing U.S. SMid Equity Market Neutral

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Cumulative return:

1.3x the HFRI EH

Corr. 0.3 vs S&P500 TR

Inception: 2012

Historical Market Capture:45% of positive equity markets

0% of negative equity markets

Annualized Return:FG Alpha: 11%

HFRI EMN: 4%

10yr TBill: 3%

FG Alpha

Formula Growth Alpha Fund 2015Trailing

3 Yr.

Inception

Jan 2012

Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6%

Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7%

Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All returns are net of fees and in US$ unless specified. The HFRI EMN is a hedge fund index composed of the returns of equity market neutral managers.

Page 8: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

8

We haven’t been in a Bull Market for a year and a half…

Current markets

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Source: Cornerstone Macro

Page 9: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

9

We are back to the same level as 2-3 years ago…7 years ago for Emerging Markets

Current markets

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Source: Cornerstone Macro

Page 10: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

10

We are back to the same level as 2-3 years ago…7 years ago for Emerging Markets

Current markets

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Source: Cornerstone Macro

Over 24 months…

Page 11: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

11

Historically, there have been 30 declines of 20%+% the average market decline is

30% and lasts for 7-8 months

Current markets

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Source: Cornerstone Macro

Page 12: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

12

Our 2016 Outlook

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Page 13: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

13

• Global growth is slowing due to China and other energy exporting countries such as Russia

and Brazil

• The U.S. economy should be solid in 2016

Bear Market Causes: Slower global growth

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Source: Cornerstone Macro

Page 14: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

14

Bear Market Causes: Collapsing Commodities

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

• Oil slide has been relentless…

WTI Crude Oil

Source: Cornerstone Macro

Page 15: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

15

Bear Market Causes: Wider Credit Spreads

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

High-Yield credit spreads represented by the Markit CDX North America high-yield index, which tracks the credit-default swaps of 100 non-investment grade companies

• High yield spreads have widened over 500 bps since mid 2014…

• …as Energy has fallen into distress

Page 16: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

16

• China is decelerating and investors unimpressed with Chinese authority policy response

Bear Market Causes: China wildcard

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Source: Cornerstone Macro

Page 17: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

17

U.S. fundamentals: Still Intact

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Source: Cornerstone Macro

Auto sales are strong

Housing sector recovery continues Employment is solid

Consumer spending recovering

Page 18: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

18

U.S. Fundamentals: Recession risk seems low

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

“Here are the 11 variables used to calculate our Recession Risk Model, with only 1

indicating the probability of a U.S. recession is over 50%. As a result of these low odds, we

believe this expansion could last another 4 years.” – Cornerstone Macro, January 4th 2016

Source: Cornerstone Macro

Page 19: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

19

U.S. Fundamentals: FG checks confirm stability

Management teams that the FG team met with over the past 2 months:

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

1-800-Flowers.com Inc-Cl A

2U Inc

8X8 Inc

Aaron’s Inc

Acadia Healthcare Co Inc

Acuity Brands Inc

Agco Corp

Airgas Inc

Alamos Gold Inc-Class A

Albertsons Cos Inc

Ametek Inc

Anadarko Petroleum Corp

Apache Corp

Arcbest Corp

Argos Therapeautics Inc

ARM Holdings PLC-Spons ADR

Asbury Automotive Group

Atalssian Corp PLC-Class A

AVG Technologies

B&G Foods Inc

Bankrate Inc

Barrett Business SVCS Inc

Basic Energy Services Inc

Bazaarvoice Inc

Beazer Homes USA Inc

Bill Barrett Corp

BMC Stock Holdings Inc

Boston Beer Company Inc-A

Brunswick Corp

Builders FirstSource Inc

Bunge Ltd

Caesarstone Sdot-Yam Ltd

Cal-Maine Foods Inc

Carbo Ceramics Inc

Cardiovascular Systems Inc

Cardtronics Inc

Carmike Cinemas Inc

Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc

Casey’s General Stores Inc

CBOE Holdings Inc

Cemex Sab-Spons ADR Part Cer

Cenovus Energy Inc

CGI Group Inc - Class A

Chefs’ Warehouse Inc/The

Chegg Inc

Cherokee Inc

Cimarex Energy Co

Citi Trends Inc

C&J Energy Services Ltd

Clorox Company

Concho Resources Inc

Conn’s Inc

Consol Energy Inc

Container Store Group Inc/The

Continental Resources Inc

Cooper Tire & Rubber

Core-Mark Holding Co Inc

Coty Inc-Cl A

CPI Card Group Inc

Credit Acceptance Corp

Cree Inc

CSI Compressco LP

Darling Ingredients Inc

Deckers Outdoor Corp

Deere & Co

Del Taco Restaurants Inc

Devon Energy Corp

DHX Media

Diamondback Energy Inc

Domino’s Pizza Inc

Dorman Products Inc

Drew Industries Inc

Edgewell Personal Care Co

Encana Corp

Endurance International

EOG Resources Inc

Eros International PLC

Euronet Worldwide Inc

Expeditors Intl Wash Inc

Exponent Inc

Express Inc

Extended Stay America Inc

Fairmount Santrol Holdings Inc

Financial Engines Inc

First Data Corp-Class A

First Financial Bankshares Inc

Fleetcor Technologies Inc

FMC Technologies Inc

Foot Locker Inc

Forrester Research Inc

Fossil Group Inc

Freightcar America Inc

Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc

Freshpet Inc

FTI Consulting Inc

General Motors Co

Genworth Finanical Inc-Cl A

Gigoptix Inc

Gildan Activewear Inc

Globant SA

Golar LNG Partners LP

Grand Ocean Advanced Resources

Gray Television Inc

Guess Inc

Gulfport Energy Corp

Halogen Software Inc

Hain Celestial Group Inc

Harley-Davidson Inc

Harman International

Helmerich & Payne Inc

Hertz Global Holdings Inc

Hill International Inc

HMS Holdings Corp

Hormel Foods Corp

Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Co

Huntington Ingalls Industries

Imax Corp

Incontact Inc

Ingersoll-Rand PLC

Innova Gaming Group

Installed Building Products

Intersect ENT Inc

Intertain Group Inc

Inventure Foods Inc

J & J Snack Foods Corp

KB Home

Keurig Green Mountain Inc

Kimberly-Clark Corp

Kinder Morgan Inc

Kirby Corp

Kirkland Lake Gold

Kirkland’s Inc

Klondex Mines Ltd

Knight Transportation Inc

Kraft Heinz Co/The

Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc

L Brands Inc

Lennox International Inc

Libbey Inc

Lindsay Corp

Lithia Motors Inc-Cl A

Lukoil PJSC-Spon ADR

Lululemon Athletica Inc

Lumber Liquidators Holdings

Malibu Boats Inc- A

Manhattan Associates Inc

Manitowox Company Inc

Marathon Oil Corp

Marinemax Inc

MarketAxess Holdings Inc

Marketo Inc

Masco Corp

Mastec Inc

MCBC Holdings Inc

Men’s Wearhouse Inc/The

Methods Electronics Inc

Mix Telematics Ltd-SP ADR

Monro Muffler Brake Inc

Monster Worldwide Inc

Moody’s Corp

Movado Group Inc

MRC Global Inc

Nationstar Mortgage Holdings

NCI Building Systems Inc

Newmarket Gold

Nielsen Holdings PLC

Noble Energy Inc

Nuance Communications Inc

Nutrisystem Inc

Oasis Petroleum Inc

Oceaneering Intl Inc

Och-Ziff Capital Management-A

Old Dominion Freight line

Opower Inc

Owens Corning

Papa Murphy’s Holdings Inc

Parsley Energy Inc

PDC Energy Inc

Performance Food Group Co

Perry Ellis International

Pioneering Natural Resources Co

Ply Gem Holdings Inc

Polycom Inc

Proto Labs Inc

Q2 Holdings Inc

QAD Inc-A

QEP Resources Inc

Qorvo Inc

Quaker Chemical Corp

Qualcomm Inc

Quanex Building Products

Rackspace Hosting Inc

Ranges Res Corp

Realogy Holdings Corp

Redknee Solutions

Renewable Energy Group Inc

Richmont Mines

RingCentral Inc-Class A

RLI Corp

Roadrunner Transportation SY

Rockwell Automation Inc

Roper Technologies Inc

Rovi Corp

RSP Permi

Rush Enterprises Inc-Cl A

SciQuest Inc

SeaWorld Entertainment Inc

Select Comfort Corporation

ServiceNow Inc

Sherwin-Williams Co/The

Shopify Inc-Class A

Shoretel Inc

Sigma Designs Inc

Silicon Graphics International

Skyworks Solutions Inc

Smith & Wesson Holding Corp

Snyders-Lance Inc

Southwestern Energy Co

SpartanNash Co

Spirit Airlines Inc

Square Inc - A

Steelcase Inc-Cl A

Stratasys Ltd

Sunopta Ltd

Supercom Ltd

Sysco Corp

Tangoe Inc/Ct

Targa Resources Corp

Teladoc Inc

Tempur Sealy International I

Terex Corp

Tesla Motors Inc

Titan Machinery Inc

Toll Brothers Inc

Transdigm Group Inc

Trex Company Inc

TriNet Group Inc

TrueBlue Inc

TubeMogul Inc

Twitter Inc

Ubisoft Entertain-Unspon ADR

Under Armour Inc-Class A

United Natural Foods Inc

USG Corp

Valeant Pharmaceuticals Inc

Veeco Instruments Inc

VF Corp

Virtu Financial Inc-Class A

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

Wayfair Inc- Class A

WD-40 Co

Web.Com Group Inc

WebMD Health Corp

Whiting Petroleum Corp

William Lyon Homes-Cl A

World Wrestling

WPX Energy Inc

WSP Global Inc

XPO Logistics Inc

Yelp Inc

YRC Worldwide Inc

Zendesk Inc

Zillow Group Inc - C

Zumiez Inc

Page 20: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

20

U.S. Fundamentals: Corporate profits may rebound

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

If earnings are up, the market usually follows…

• Earnings were down in 2015 per the negative contribution of energy (down 60%), industrials

(down 10%) and materials (down 5%)

• Price to earnings of the market is roughly 18x, about the same as early last decade

• Market returns have historically been correlated with earnings

Earnings

S&P 500 Return ?Source IBES Estimates, Formula Growth Ltd.

S&P 500 Return vs Earnings

?

Page 21: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

21

Global weakness/U.S. strength: Throwback to 1998!

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Source: Cornerstone Macro

• The current environment reminds us of the late 1990s: similar P/E, good employment, etc.

• This is also a period that lived through many crisis and therefore volatility

Page 22: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

22

U.S. Outlook and Actions

• Bear market caused by commodities/credit/China: therefore watching these

factors for abatement

• U.S. Corporate profits fell in 2015 because of energy and materials: therefore

working hard to understand whether profit weakness is spreading

• Bullish wildcards include continued corporate M&A, renewed central bank easing,

widespread fear and underinvestment

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Page 23: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

23

Why Formula Growth?

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

FORMULA GROWTH PROPOSITION

50+ yrs of Investment Success with a Stable & Experienced Team

Proven Alpha generation through Many Investment Cycles

Expertise in a Less Efficient Small/Mid cap equity markets

Strong risk management tools & controls

Important Alignment of Interest, Integrity & Transparency

Page 24: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

24

Appendix

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Page 25: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

25

Green Mountain Coffee (NYSE: GMCR)

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Idea: The firm has been actively involved, both long and short, since 2011.

Investment Thesis: Since our last long involvement in 2012-13, GMCR succeeded in: eliminating their unlicensed competition, replacing their

management team, and became more of a “real” business that generated respectable free cash flow and ROIC. However, due to the market’s

unreasonably high expectations for their Kold platform (via a partnership with Coca Cola which didn’t gain the traction) some had hoped to

see stock collapsed from its high of $150 to the mid-$40s. Meanwhile, consumption of it’s core K-Cup products were a healthy +12-15% and

the stock traded at 12.5x EPS. We saw a lot of value in the context of other CPG stocks with barely any organic growth that commanded 20-

25x PE multiples.

Evolution: JAB Holdings acquired the company in December for $92/share in cash, a 78% premium to prior close.

Purchase

Exit

Page 26: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

26CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Idea: We had a long history with the company as we had owned it throughout 2003-2004 (from $5 to $12). The regional broker KC Capital had

followed it since 2000 and gave us a call when the stock was trading around $10-11. We resumed our work from where we had left it off when

we sold the stock in 2004.

Investment Thesis: Peru fishing season was at risk due to “El Nino” tightening global supply and leading to an increase in prices. The stock fell

below book value of $11 and the cost cutting was going to increase OME’s EBITDA margin. A US peer (Daybrook Fisheries) sold for 8x

EBITDA while OME was traded at a multiple of 3x.

Evolution: We bought initial position at the $10-12 range with a $16-17 price target. Activist filed a stake requesting strategic alternatives and

we increase our position size at $12-14 raising our target price to $20. The company then beat EPS and EBITDA estimates per the increase in

prices and volumes (our thesis). Stock then traded at $20 where we decided to exit as it had reached our target price.

Purchase

Exit

Omega Protein (NYSE: OME)

Page 27: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

27

Owens Corning (NYSE: OC)

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Idea: We had researched building products companies early in the building cycle – 2010.

Investment Thesis: Returned to Owens Corning on the long side as we recognized that quickly falling oil prices would

lower the input cost of asphalt which is important in the roofing shingle business.

Evolution: Analysts steadily recognized the benefit of lower cost of goods by raising estimates throughout late 2014 and

mid 2015. We built the stock into largest position and exited when it reached our price target.

Purchase

Exit

Page 28: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

28

RNG (NYSE: RNG)

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Idea: Met with the company during the IPO roadshow in 2013.

Investment thesis: RNG's software as a service (SAAS) offering is replacing legacy communication systems (Avaya, Cisco, Genessis) with a

software PBX. RNG has a more powerful mobile first product with lower total cost of ownership for the customer. It is a very large market

at $50B globally and cloud is only 5-10% penetrated. Organic growth has been running 30%+ y/y since our entry. It came public with -19%

op. margin in 2013, but had consistently showed leverage reaching Op. margin B/E in Q3 2015. We saw a long run way for growth as they

continue to succeed in moving up market.

Evolution: Involved in Sept 2013 IPO. Re-engaged in May of 2014 post the melt down of SAAS valuations. Spent time with management at

May JPM conference to confirm thesis. Built position throughout 2014 and traded around the position in 2015. As they proved model

durability their valuation expanded from 2x EV/S to now near 3x 17 EV/S. Still a discount to other 30%+ SAAS names and LT earnings

potential. We exited when it reached our target price.

Purchase

Exit

Page 29: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

29

Short NTRI (NYSE: NTRI)

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Idea: Originated from research on publicly traded peers MED and WTW, Formula has been following the group for a long period

of time.

Investment Thesis: The dieting business is notoriously driven by fads and trends, indeed, NTRI has stated it needs to replace 75%

of its customers each diet season. Spokespeople are a particularly effective marketing tool to drive traffic and in late 2015 Weight

Watchers signed a partnership with arguably the most impactful celebrity possible for the target demographic: Oprah. The last case

study was in 2011 when WTW signed Jennifer Hudson, their revenues and stock price increased markedly while NTRI collapsed.

Evolution: Met the management teams of both NTRI and WTW. Early signs of WTW enrollment data were very positive into late

December. NTRI stock fell to within 10% of our 2016 fair value targets and the position was covered.

SHORT SELL

COVER

Page 30: Formula Growth Limited€¦ · Jan 2012 Formula Growth Alpha Fund C$ equivalent 27.8% 19.7% 19.6% Formula Growth Alpha Fund US$ 7.1% 7.2% 10.7% Source Formula Growth, Bloomberg. All

30

Formula Growth Team

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Anthony Staples, CFA

VP & Senior Portfolio ManagerAnthony Staples is Vice President & Senior Portfolio Manager of Josyd Inc. the parent

company of Formula Growth Limited and is located Montreal. Over the last 15 years,

Anthony has specialized in U.S. small capitalization public equities with a particular

emphasis on the technology, business services, consumer and healthcare sectors.

Anthony joined Formula Growth in 1997 after four years with a Montreal-based

investment management firm focused on private equity investing. Anthony is also a

part time lecturer in applied investments at McGill University and a mentor in the

Kenneth Woods Portfolio Management Program at Concordia University. A graduate

of McGill University in Economics, he also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst

designation. Mr. Staples’ principle responsibilities involve research, portfolio

construction and management of the firm’s long-only products as well as stock idea

generation for the firm’s entire suite of products including long-short products.

Michael Gentile, CFA

VP & Senior Portfolio ManagerMichael Gentile is Vice President & Senior Portfolio Manager of Josyd Inc. the parent

company of Formula Growth Limited and is located in the Montreal office. Since

joining the firm in 2002, Michael has specialized in the natural resource, consumer and

healthcare sectors. Michael graduated with Great Distinction from the John Molson

School of Business (Concordia University) and received the Calvin Potter Fellowship

from Concordia's Kenneth Woods Portfolio Management Program. He lectures on

Applied Investments at Concordia University. Mr. Gentile’s principle responsibilities

involve research, portfolio construction and management as co-manager for the

firm’s FG Alpha Fund and FG Focus Fund strategies. He also has the responsibility to

generate stock ideas for the firm’s entire suite of products.

* Formula Growth Management Company Inc is a subsidiary 100% owned by Josyd Inc, the parent company of Formula Growth Limited.

John Liddy, MBA

President & Director of Research (FGMC Inc.*)John Liddy is President & Director of Research for Josyd's wholly owned U.S.

subsidiary Formula Growth Management Corp. and is located in the New York office.

A graduate of Waterloo and York Universities, he joined Formula Growth in 1995 after

four years as a growth stock analyst in Toronto. Mr. Liddy’s principle responsibilities

involve leading the research for the firm’s entire suite of investment products.

Randall Kelly, CPA, CFA

Randall W. Kelly is Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Josyd Inc.,

parent company of Formula Growth Limited and is located in the Montreal office of

the firm. A graduate of Concordia and McGill Universities, he joined Formula Growth

in 1984 after six years with Deloitte. Mr. Kelly is responsible for the day-to-day

activities and strategic long-term planning of Formula Growth. More specifically, Mr.

Kelly is responsible for all facets of the business of Formula Growth including its parent

company Josyd Inc. and all affiliated companies and relationships globally. As CIO of

all Formula Growth products Mr. Kelly has ultimate responsibility for all portfolio

construction and management, stock selection, regulatory and professional

compliance, risk management, business development, sales and marketing and

administration.

CEO & CIO

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31

Formula Growth Team

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Nelson Cheung, CFA

VP & Senior Portfolio ManagerNelson Cheung is a Vice President & Senior Portfolio Manager of Josyd Inc. the parent

of Formula Growth Limited and is located in the Montreal office but also spends

approximately a quarter of his time traveling to the Asia Pacific region for research

purposes. He has over ten years of investment experience in portfolio management

of global equities with a particular emphasis on Asian stocks. Prior to joining Formula

Growth, Nelson worked with Acuity Funds where he co-led and helped develop their

global equities effort and at CN Investment Division where he was a Senior Analyst

part of a team that managed $8 billion in equity investments. Nelson is a CFA

Charterholder and graduated from the John Molson School of Business (Concordia

University) with a Bachelor of Commerce degree. He also received the Calvin Potter

Fellowship from Concordia's Kenneth Woods Portfolio Management Program. Mr.

Cheung’s principle responsibilities involve research, portfolio construction and

management for the firm’s Global products.

Cameron Fortin

Portfolio ManagerCameron Fortin is a Portfolio Manager of Josyd Inc.’s wholly owned U.S. subsidiary

Formula Growth Management Corp. and is located in the New York office. A Bachelor

of Commerce graduate from the John Molson School of Business (Concordia

University), Cameron has worked with Formula Growth since 2004. He also received

the Calvin Potter Fellowship from Concordia's Kenneth Woods Portfolio Management

Program. Mr. Fortin’s principle responsibilities involve research and portfolio

management for the firm’s U.S. equity directional hedge funds.

Lucy Chher, MBA

Analyst, Trading and Risk ManagementKheu-Sing (Lucy) Chher is working on trading and risk management in parallel for

Josyd Inc. the parent company of Formula Growth Limited and is located in the

Montreal office. She graduated from McGill University with a Mathematics and

Computer Sciences double major degree in 2001, worked in software engineering and

management at CAE for 10 years before joining Formula Growth. She completed her

MBA studies at Goodman Institute of Investment Management and is a CFA level III

candidate.

Charles Haggar, CPA, CFA

Charles Haggar is a Vice President & Senior Portfolio Manager of Josyd Inc. the parent

company of Formula Growth Limited and is located in the Montreal office. Charles

graduated from the John Molson School of Business (Concordia University) with a

Bachelor of Commerce, major in Finance and McGill University with a Diploma in

accounting. Prior to joining Formula Growth in 2007, he worked for

PricewaterhouseCoopers, CDP Capital, and Montrusco Bolton. Charles has completed

his Charted Accountant and Chartered Financial Analysts designations. He also

received the Calvin Potter Fellowship from Concordia's Kenneth Woods Portfolio

Management Program. Mr. Haggar’s principle responsibilities involve research,

portfolio construction and management as co-manager for the firm’s FG Alpha Fund

and FG Focus Fund strategies. He also has the responsibility to generate stock ideas for

the firm’s entire suite of products.

VP & Senior Portfolio Manager

* Formula Growth Management Company Inc is a subsidiary 100% owned by Josyd Inc, the parent company of Formula Growth Limited.

James Sinclair, CFA

Vice President & Economist (FGMC Inc.*)James is Vice President and Economist for Josyd's wholly owned U.S. subsidiary

Formula Growth Management Corp. and is located in the New York office. A graduate

of McGill University, with a Bachelor of Commerce, major in Finance, James joined

Formula Growth in 2006. James has his Chartered Financial Analysts designation. Mr.

Sinclair’s principle responsibilities involve economic research for the firm’s entire suite

of investment products.

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32

Formula Growth Team

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

René Catafago, CPA, CFA

Executive VP & CFORené Catafago is Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Josyd Inc. the

parent company of Formula Growth Limited and is located in the Montreal office. A

graduate of Université de Montréal, he joined Formula Growth in 1987 after 15 years

in public accounting practice.

Ari Kiriazidis, CFA

VP Operations & CCOAri Kiriazidis is Vice President of Operations and Chief Compliance Officer of Josyd Inc.

the parent company of Formula Growth Limited and is located in the Montreal office.

A Bachelor of Commerce graduate from McGill University and a CFA Charterholder,

Ari has been at Formula Growth since 2001.

Rodney McCollam

VP & Corporate ControllerRodney MCollam is Vice President and Corporate Controller of Josyd Inc. the parent

company of Formula Growth Limited and is located in the Montreal office. A graduate

of Concordia University, he joined Formula Growth in 2000 after more than 20 years

working for both public and private corporations in the Pharmaceutical and

Technology industries.

Rosanna Vitale

Rosanna Vitale is the Administrative Assistant for Josyd Inc. the parent company of

Formula Growth Limited and is located in the Montreal office. She joined Formula

Growth in 1996.

Administrative Assistant

Mathieu Boisvert, M.Sc.

VPMathieu Boisvert contributes to the product development and institutional client

management process at Formula Growth. Located in Montreal he is also a member of

the risk management committee. Prior to joining Formula Growth in 2014 he spent

over 12 years at one of the largest fund of hedge funds in Canada. As Partner and

Portfolio Manager, his role included building fund of hedge fund portfolios on behalf

of Canadian and International institutional investors, conducting investment and

operational due diligence to select hedge fund managers, as well as conducting

performance reviews with clients. He graduated in Economics from McGill and

received a Master’s degree in Finance from Sherbrooke University.

Tony Namaan

AnalystTony Namaan is an analyst and is located in the Montreal office. After graduating

with Honors in Finance from John Molson School of Business (Concordia

University) he joined Formula Growth in 2015.

Alexa Dorsainville, CPA, CA

Director of Finance

Alexa Dorsainville is responsible for the accounting and other treasury functions

of Formula Growth. She graduated from HEC Montreal with a trilingual Bachelor

of Business Administration specializing in Public Accounting and later obtained

her CPA, CA certification. Since 2010 Alexa worked at a public accounting practice

firm and she joined Formula Growth in 2015.

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33

Disclaimer

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

THIS DOCUMENT WHICH IS BEING PROVIDED ON A CONFIDENTIAL BASIS SHALL NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER TO SELL OR THE SOLICITATION OF

ANY OFFER TO BUY WHICH MAY ONLY BE MADE AT THE TIME A QUALIFIED OFFREE RECEIVES AN OFFERING MEMORANDUM (“OM”), CONTAINING

IMPORTANT INFORMATION (INCLUDING INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE, POLICIES, RISK FACTORS, FEES, TAX IMPLICATION AND RELEVANT

QUALIFICATIONS), AND ONLY IN THOSE JURISDICTIONS WHERE PERMITTED BY LAW. IN THE CASE OF ANY INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE

DESCRIPTIONS OR TERMS IN THIS DOCUMENT AND THE OM, THE OM SHALL CONTROL. THESE SECURITIES SHALL NOT BE OFFERED OR SOLD IN ANY

JURISDICTION IN WHICH SUCH OFFER, SOLICITATION OR SALE WOULD BE UNLAWFUL UNTIL THE REQUIREMENT OF THE LAWS OF SUCH

JURISDICTION HAVE BEEN SATISFIED. THIS DOCUMENT IS NOT INTENDED FOR PUBLIC USE OR DISTRIBUTION. WHILE ALL THE INFORMATION

PREPARED IN THIS DOCUMENT IS BELIEVED TO BE ACCURATE, FORMULA GROWTH LIMITED MAKES NO EXPRESS WARANTY AS TO THE

COMPLETENESS OR ACCURACY, NOR CAN IT ACCEPT RESPONSABILITY FOR ERRORS APPEARING IN THE DOCUMENT.

AN INVESTMENT IN A FORMULA GROWTH LIMITED FUND IS SPECULATIVE AND INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. OPPORTUNITIES FOR

WITHDRAWAL OR REDEMPTION AND TRANSFERABILITY OF INTERESTS ARE RESTRICTED SO INVESTORS MAY NOT HAVE ACCESS TO CAPITAL WHEN

IT IS NEEDED. THERE IS NO SECONDARY MARKET FOR THE INTERESTS AND NONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE PORTFOLIO, WHICH IS UNDER

THE SOLE TRADING AUTHORITY OF FORMULA GROWTH LIMITED, IS PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED IN LONG SHORT EQUITY STRATEGY AND THE

LACK OF DIVERSIFICATION MAY RESULT IN HIGH RISK. LEVERAGE MAY BE EMPLOYED IN THE PORTFOLIO WHICH CAN MAKE INVESTMENT

PERFORMANCE VOLATILE. AN INVESTOR SHOULD NOT MAKE AN INVESTMENT UNLESS IT IS PREPARED TO LOSE ALL OR A SUBSTANTIAL PORTION

OF ITS INVESTMENT. THE FEES AND EXPENSES CHARGED WITH THIS INVESTMENT MAY BE HIGHER THAN THE FEES AND EXPENSES OF OTHER

INVESTMENT ALTERNATIVES AND MAY OFFSET PROFITS.

THERE IS NO GUARENTEE THAT THE INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE WILL BE ACHIEVED. MOREOVER, THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF THE INVESTMENT

TEAM SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. ANY PROJECTIONS, MARKET OUTLOOKS OR ESTIMATES IN THIS

DOCUMENT ARE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS AND ARE BASED UPON CERTAIN ASSUMPTIONS. OTHER EVENTS WHICH WERE NOT TAKEN INTO

ACCOUNT MAY OCCUR AND MAY SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE RETURNS OF PERFORMANCE OF THE FUND. ANY PROJECTIONS, OUTLOOKS OR

ASSUMPTIONS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED TO BE INDICATIVE OF THE ACTUAL EVENTS WHICH WILL OCCUR.

ALL FIGURES ARE ESTIMATES AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. PERFORMANCE RETURNS ARE ESTIMATED PENDING THE YEAR-END

AUDIT AND ARE SUBJECT TO REVISION. ACTUAL RETURNS MAY DIFFER FROM THE RETURNS PRESENTED BASED UPON, AMONG OTHER FACTORS,

TIME OF INVESTMENT. THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BENCHMARK INDICES MAY BE MATERIALLY DIFFERENT FROM THAT OF THE FUND, AND

THUS, LITTLE CORRELATION MAY EXIST BETWEEN THE FUNDS RETURN AND THOSE OF SUCH INDICES. THERE ARE ONLY DISCLOSED TO ALLOW FOR

COMPARISON OF THE FUND’S PERFORMANCE TO THAT OF WIDELY RECOGNISED INDICES.

THIS DOCUMENT IS CONFIDENTIAL AND INTENDED ONLY FOR THE ADDRESSEE. THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE PUBLISHED OR DISTRIBUTED

WITHOUT THE EXPRESS WRITTEN CONSENT OF FORMULA GROWTH LIMITED.

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34

Contact Information

CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

1010, Sherbrooke Street W. Suite 2300

Montreal, Quebec H3A 2R7

Canada

28 West 44th Street, Suite 1516

New York, NY 10036

USA

27/F, Two Exchange Square

Hong Kong

Mathieu Boisvert

514.904.2887

[email protected]