Determination of the mitigationpotential and possible ranges of emission reduction objectives of Annex I Parties

AWG 427 August 2007Vienna, Austria

Claudio Forner, cforner@unfccc.intNiklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.de

Content

1. Introduction to the technical paper2. Definition of mitigation potential3. Synthesis of submissions by Parties4. Factors and indicators5. Summary

Introduction to the paper

• Four substantive Chapters:– Background– Synthesis of submissions by Parties– Factors and indicators– Other information

• Annex with data on factors and indicators

Mitigation potential (MP)

• Market potential: based on private costs and private discount rates, noting that barriers limit actual uptake.

• Economic potential takes into account social costs and benefits and social discount rates, assuming that market efficiency is improved by policies and measures and that barriers are removed.

Mitigation potential (cont’d)

GHG emissions

Past trends and current state of GHG emissions (and related factors)

Future state of GHG emissions (and related factors)a

•Technologies•Policies and measures•Costs

Time

BAU

Mitigation potential

Synthesis of submissions

• Assessing mitigation potential:– Efficiency– BAT

• Factors and indicators– by type: emission-related, economic, social

and others – by sector: intensities (emissions per output, per

area, per household, per freight, etc.)– Costs: total/sectoral cost of abatement,

economic potential at diff. prices, – Other: use of mechanisms, LULUCF,

deforestation

Factors and indicators

• Absolute: Magnitude of MP• Relative (efficiencies and intensities):

improvements contributing to MP

• Nation wide: broad socio-economic• Sectoral: split based on IPCC• Crosscutting: technology, policies and

measures and costs

Overview of indicatorsNation-wide GHG emissions, trends, sectors, GDP, population, energy supply,

fuel mix, GHG/cap, GHG/GDP, TPES/cap, TPES/GDP, share of exports in GDP, human development index

Energy industries and fugitive

GHG/kWh, fuel mix and efficiency in electricity production

Industry GHG emissions/production, share of process and fugitive emissions

Transport Fuel efficiency, travel activity, modal split, population density

Households and services

GHG/cap, electricity use in households/cap, heating and cooling degree days

Agriculture GHG/GDP from agriculture

Waste Waste/cap, share land-filled and incinerated, percentage of CH4 recovered from landfills

Land-use change and forestry

GHG/km2 (for forestry and agricultural soils separately)

International transport

Share of international and domestic transport

GHG emission and trends

• Declined: EITs, EU• Increased: AUS, CAN, TUR, USA,…

0

1,000

2,000

3,0004,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Aus

tralia

Bel

arus

Can

ada

Cro

atia

Icel

and

Japa

nN

. Zea

land

Nor

way

Rus

sia

Sw

itzer

land

Turk

eyU

krai

neU

SA

EU

A

vera

ge

Tota

l GH

G e

mis

sion

s in

200

4(M

tCO

2eq.

)

-80

-60

-40

-200

20

40

60

80

Cha

nge

in e

mis

sion

s fr

om b

ase

year

to20

04

Population trends

• Declining: Eastern European states• Increasing: AUS, CAN, TUR, USA,…

Projected population growth 2004–2020 (%)

-20-15-10

-505

10152025

Aus

tralia

Bel

arus

Can

ada

Cro

atia

Icel

and

Japa

n

N. Z

eala

nd

Nor

way

Rus

sia

Sw

itzer

land

Turk

ey

Ukr

aine

US

A

EU

A

vera

ge

EUUnited StatesUkraine

Turkey

Switzerland

Russia

Norway

N. Zealand

Japan

Iceland

Croatia

CanadaBelarus

Australia

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 2 4 6 8 10 12Energy supply / cap (toe/cap)

GH

G e

mis

sion

s / e

nerg

y su

pply

(tC

O2

eq./t

oe)

GHG and energy intensity

Energy intensive

GH

G in

tens

ive

ener

gy

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%A

ustra

lia

Bel

arus

Can

ada

Cro

atia

Icel

and

Japa

n

N. Z

eala

nd

Nor

way

Rus

sia

Sw

itzer

land

Turk

ey

Ukr

aine

Uni

ted

Sta

tes

EU

A

vera

ge

Renewable

Nuclear

Fossil

• Large contribution of fossil fuels• Renewables high: CAN, ICE, NZL, NOR, CHE • Share of renewables (without hydro) usually below 5%

Energy mix

GHG emissions per sector

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%A

ustra

lia

Bel

arus

Can

ada

Cro

atia

Icel

and

Japa

n

N. Z

eala

nd

Nor

way

Rus

sia

Sw

itzer

land

Turk

ey

Ukr

aine

Uni

ted

Sta

tes

EU

A

vera

ge

WasteAgricultureHouseh.+servicesTransportIndustryEnergy industries

• Significant difference to the average in some small countries• Most emissions from energy industries followed by

industry/transport

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Aus

tralia

Bel

arus

Can

ada

Cro

atia

Icel

and

Japa

n

N. Z

eala

nd

Nor

way

Rus

sia

Sw

itzer

land

Turk

ey

Ukr

aine

Uni

ted

Sta

tes

EU

A

vera

ge

CO 2

em

issi

ons/

kW

h (g

CO

2/kW

h)841

CO2 intensity of electricity production

• Higher intensity for countries with high use of fossil fuels• Lower intensity for countries with significant use of renewables

Note: values includes electricity and heat production, hence countries with high share of CHP (commonin EITs) have low values

Industrial efficiency

• Comparable data rarely available

GHG emissions/tonne of cement (t CO2/t cement)

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0

Can

ada

Ger

man

y

Italy

Japa

n

Spa

in

Uni

ted

Sta

tes

Fuel efficiency of passenger cars (l/100km)

6.26.46.66.87.07.27.47.67.88.08.2

Aus

tria

Fran

ce

Ger

man

y

Irela

nd

Net

herla

nds

Nor

way

Spa

in

Uni

ted

Kin

gdom

• Emissions vary substantially due to practices and geography• Modal split, level of travel and efficiencies not readily available

Transport

Electricity use/capita (kWh/capita)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Aust

ralia

Bela

rus

Can

ada

Cro

atia

Icel

and

Japa

n

N. Z

eala

nd

Nor

way

Rus

sia

Switz

erla

nd

Turk

ey

Ukr

aine

Uni

ted

Stat

es EU

Av

erag

e

Heating and cooling• Heating and cooling needs vary substantially• Area of heated/cooled space is not availableElectricity use• Efficiencies and number of appliances are not available• Emissions depend on carbon intensity of energy

Households and services

Indicators

• Emissions from agriculture vary due to products and practices• More specific indicators necessary

GHG emission of sector/GDP PPP of agricultural sector (tCO2 eq/USD 1,000)

0

1

2

3

4

Aus

tralia

Bel

arus

Cro

atia

Icel

and

Japa

n

Nor

way

Rus

sia

Turk

ey

Ukr

aine

Uni

ted

Sta

tes

4.5

Australia

FranceGermany

IcelandJapan

N. ZealandNorway

Switzerland

United Kingdom

United States

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 100 200 300 400 500

Waste per capita landfilled (kg)

Met

hane

reco

vere

d (%

)

Waste

• Substantially different practices to handle waste

Reduce waste that is landfilled

Rec

over

mor

e m

etha

ne

Land use, land-use change and forestry

• Removals from forests vary substantially• Emissions from soils vary substantially

Net CO2 emissions or removals per forested area (t CO2/km2)

-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100

0100

Aust

ralia

Bela

rus

Can

ada

Cro

atia

Icel

and

Japa

n

N. Z

eala

nd

Nor

way

Rus

sia

Switz

erla

nd

Ukr

aine

-1359

Summary

Summary

2. What are the costs to reach these levels?

1. What are the reductions necessary to reach a certain stabilization level?

Stabilization levels and Annex I reductions

Source: IPCC AR4 WGIII

Review of studies that provided possible emission targets for countries (before trading) to reach a certain stabilization level

Mitigation potential

50 GtCO2eq.

2004 2030

Reference scenario59-68 GtCO2eq.

Mitigation potential

IPCC sectoral economic mitigation potential

Source: IPCC AR4 WGIII SPM

Conservative estimates because:• Changes in lifestyle or behavioural aspects have not been considered• Few studies have been undertaken for high carbon prices • Some mitigation options were not analyzed (10% to 15%)

Summary

Source: IPCC AR4 SPM WGIII

Source of estimate

2020 (% change

compared to 1990)

2030 (% change

compared to 1990)

2050 (% change

compared to 1990)

National communications by some Annex I Parties: estimated effect of ‘additional measures’ on GHG emissions

57 to -45

450 ppmv CO2 eq -25 to -40 -80 to -95

550 ppmv CO2 eq -10 to -30 -40 to -90

650 ppmv CO2 eq 0 to -25 -30 to -80

USD 100 A1B: -22 to -39B2: -18 to -34

USD 50 A1B: -27B2: -23

USD 20 A1B: -19B2: -15

2. IPCC: indication of possible reductions by Annex I Parties relative to scenarios A1B and B2, based on different levels for carbon price

1. IPCC: required reductions for Annex I Parties based on allocation rules (before trading)

Options to obtain further information

1. Comprehensive study with one model by an independent entity, using information provided by Parties

2. Further disaggregate the mitigation potential of the AR4

3. Assessment of mitigation potential per country by national experts

Thank you!

Backup slides

Energy mix

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%A

ustra

lia

Bel

arus

Can

ada

Cro

atia

Icel

and

Japa

n

N. Z

eala

nd

Nor

way

Rus

sia

Sw

itzer

land

Turk

ey

Ukr

aine

Uni

ted

Stat

es EU

Av

erag

e

Biomass/ waste Solar/ wind/ other GeothermalHydropowerNuclear Gas Oil Coal

• Large contribution of fossil fuels• Renewables: CAN, ICE, NZL, NOR, CHE • Share of renewables (without hydro) usually below 5%

Split of sectorsSector IPCC source categoryEnergy industries and fugitive

1A1 Energy Industries1B Fugitive emissions from fuels

Industry 1A2 Manufacturing industries and construction2 Industrial processes3 Solvents

Transport 1A3 TransportHouseholds and services 1A4 Other sectors

1A5 OtherAgriculture 4 AgricultureLand-use change and forestry

5 Land-use change and forestry

Waste 6 WasteInternational transport 1A3a,i Transport civil aviation international

1A3d,i Transport navigation international

Transport

• Emissions vary substantially due to practices and geography• Transport activity not readily available

Transport activity

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000Au

stria

Fran

ce

Ger

man

y

Irela

nd

Net

herla

nds

Nor

way

Spai

n

Uni

ted

King

dom

pkm

/cap

010002000300040005000600070008000900010000

tkm

/cap

Personal transport activity (pkm/capita)Freight transport activity (tkm/capita)

EU

US Ukraine

Turkey

Switzerland

Russia

Norway

N. Zealand

Japan

Iceland

Croatia

CanadaBelarus

Australia

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80Share of renewables and nuclear in energy mix (%)

GHG

em

issi

ons

/ ene

rgy

supp

ly (t

CO2

eq./t

oe)

GHG and energy intensityG

HG

inte

nsiv

e en

ergy

• With higher share of renewables and nuclear, the GHG intensity is lower

• GHG intensity also depends on share between coal and gas

GHG and energy intensity

• High per capita emissions occur in energy and GHG intensive economies

Australia

Belarus Canada

Croatia

Iceland

Japan

N. Zealand

Norway

Russia

Switzerland

Turkey

Ukraine United StatesEU

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 2 4 6 8 10 12Energy supply / cap (toe/cap)

GH

G e

mis

sion

s / e

nerg

y su

pply

(tC

O2

eq./t

oe)

Energy intensive

5 tCO2eq/cap 10 tCO2eq/cap 15 tCO2eq/cap 20 tCO2eq/cap 25 tCO2eq/cap

GH

G in

tens

ive

ener

gy

Global reductions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

GtC

O2

(B2+A1B)/2

BU 0US$ low

BU 0US$ high

BU 20US$ low

BU 20US$ high

BU 50US$ low

BU 50US$ high

BU 100US$ low

BU 100US$ high