fortum a leading power and heat company in the nordic area...capacity for export to the continent...
TRANSCRIPT
FORTUM A leading power and heat company in the Nordic area
Tapio Kuula, President & CEOFortum Corporation
EEI Conference, London, March 15, 2010
2
Disclaimer
This presentation does not constitute an invitation to underwrite, subscribe for, or otherwise acquire or dispose of any Fortum shares.
Past performance is no guide to future performance, and persons needing advice should consult an independent financial adviser.
3
Our geographical presence today
Nordic countriesGeneration 48.1 TWhElectricity sales 54.9 TWhHeat sales 18.0 TWhDistribution cust. 1.6 millionElectricity cust. 1.2 million
Nr 1
Nr 2
Heat
Electricity sales
Distribution
Power generation
TGC-1 (~25%)Power generation ~6 TWhHeat sales ~8 TWhOAO Fortum Power generation 16.0 TWhHeat sales 25.6 TWh
Russia
PolandHeat sales 3.7 TWh Electricity sales 20 GWh
Baltic countriesHeat sales 1.3 TWhElectricity sales 0.1 TWhDistribution cust. 24,100
4
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
*) IES
Minsk EnergoKievenergo
Irkutskenergo
Bashkirenergo
RAO ES East
Onexim
TGC-11
TGC-2
Fortum
DongKDHC, Korea
Beijing DHTGC-14
Lukoil
DalkiaGazprom
Tatenergo
ELCEN, Rom.
**)
Vattenfall
SUEK***)
Fortum is a mid-sized European power generation player, relatively larger in heat (#4)
* incl. TGC-5, TGC-6, TGC-7, TGC-9, *** incl. TGC-12, TGC-13Source Company information, Fortum analyses, 2008 figures pro forma, ** 2007
Largest producers in Europe and Russia, 2008 TWh
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Iberdrola
RusHydroFortum
EnBW
Vattenfall+Nuon
CEZ
GDF SUEZ
RWE+Essent
DEI
Edison
PGE
Scottish&Southern
Statkraft
Rosenergoatom
Irkutskenergo
WGC-1
Gazprom
IES
NNEGC Energoat.
EnelE.ONEDF
Power generation Heat production
Largest global producers, 2008 TWh
5
Fortum's share performance
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Fortum DJ utilities2007 2008 2009
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Fortum DJ utilities
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20091999
Fortum's 2007-2009 share performance Fortum's share performance since listed
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Total ~ 6,853 MEUR
1999 2001 20032000 2002 2004
0.18 0.23 0.26 0.310.42
0.58
2005
1.12
Dividend per shareEUR
0.13
1998
0.58
0.54
2006
1.26
0.73
0.53
• Dividend proposal 2009 EUR 1.00 per share, in total ~EUR 0.9 billion
• Dividend policy of 50-60% payout of previous year's results on the average
2007
1.35
0.77
0.58
2008
1.00
Capital returns
72% 103% 78% 58%
1.00*
2009
68%
* The BoD proposal for the AGM
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Fortum's carbon exposure among the lowest in Europe
Source: PWC & Enerpresse, 2009Changement climatique et Électricité
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200D
EI
Dra
x
RW
E
CEZ
Nuo
n
EDP
Sco
ttish
&S
outh
ern
Vat
tenf
all
Ene
l
Uni
on F
enos
a
E.O
N
Don
g En
ergy
GD
F S
uez
Eur
ope
Iber
drol
a
PVO
Brit
ish
Ene
rgy
EDF
Verb
und
Fortu
m
Sta
tkra
ft
g CO2/kWh electricity, 2008
Average 350 g/kWh
41
8
Fortum’s investment programme Nordic region, Poland and Baltic countries
• Olkiluoto 3, Finland, nuclear• Swedish nuclear• Refurbishing of existing hydro assets• Czestochowa, Poland (coal/biomass CHP), Q3/2010• Pärnu, Estonia (biomass/peat CHP), end of 2010• Wind power project development
Electricity capacity ~800 MW~95% CO2 -free
Fortum's annual total capital expenditure during the next 4-5 years within a range of 0.8-1.2 billion euros
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Decision-in-Principle application for Loviisa 3
• A new 1000-1800 MW nuclear power plant unit in Loviisa• Designed service life of the unit at least 60 years• Fortum already has two nuclear power plant units in Loviisa• The power plant unit will be designed to allow for combined heat and
power production• Five reactor alternatives• The investment cost of one nuclear unit is EUR 4-6 billion• The plant site and its basic infrastructure ready, the basic investments in
nuclear waste management have been made
10
New capacity, except nuclear, will require over 60 EUR/MWh power price
Other costs ( variation)CO2 cost
Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Cleancoal
EUR/MWh
Estimated lifetime average cost in nominal 2014 terms.Large variations in cost of new hydro and wind due to location and conditions.
0102030405060708090
100110
0102030405060708090
100110
Source: Nord Pool
EUR/MWh
Futures1 March 2010
1995 -97 -99 -01 -05 -07 -09 -11 -13-03 -15
11
New interconnections could double the capacity to over
8000 MW by 2020
Nordic and Continental markets are integrating – interconnection capacity could double by 2020
Additional 700 MW cable NO-NL, as well 1400 MW
NO-DE links studied
EU financial support for 700 MW DK-NL link to
connect offshore wind, too
EU support to connect Kriegers Flak offshore wind area to DK&DE; new 400 kV
AC cable SE-DK by 2017
Jylland – DE capacity to be increased by 500 MW in 2012
and by further 500 MW by 2018 LitPol Link of 1000 MW to connect the Baltic market to Poland by
2015/18. It would open a new transmission
route from the Nordic market to the Continent
New internal Nordic grid investments provide for
increased available capacity for export to the
Continent and Baltics
EU’s European Energy Programme for Recovery to cofinance to Estlink 2
and NordBalt
1400 MW link to the UK could connect offshore wind, too; North Seas Countries’ Offshore Grid Initiative launched for supergrid development
In the EU's Second Strategic Energy Review the Commission focuses
strongly on interconnecting the Baltic states and Poland to form an electricity
market around the Baltic Sea
12
Signs of demand picking up towards the end of 2009
2009 consumption decreased ~5% in the Nordic area372 TWh (393 TWh)
2009 consumption decreased ~5% in Russia• +/- 0% in Tyumen• -11% in Chelyabinsk
-25 %
-20 %
-15 %
-10 %
-5 %
0 %
5 %
10 %
Tyum
en
Che
lyab
insk
Rus
sia
Ura
ls a
rea
Rus
sia
Q1 2009 vs Q1 2008Q2 2009 vs Q2 2008Q3 2009 vs Q3 2008Q4 2009 vs Q4 2008
-25 %
-20 %
-15 %
-10 %
-5 %
0 %
5 %
10 %
Finl
and
Swed
en
Nor
way
Den
mar
k
Nor
dic
Q1 2009 vs Q1 2008Q2 2009 vs Q2 2008Q3 2009 vs Q3 2008Q4 2009 vs Q4 2008
Fortum currently expects Nordic power demand to recover back to the 2008 level by 2012-2014
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Improving efficiency, accountability and simplicity
• New organisation structure was implemented from 1 October 2009 onwards
• A programme targeting improved efficiency, accountability and simplicity initiated
• The process will continue in 2010
Number of employees, 31 Dec.
15579
11613
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
2008 2009
14
Russia is a large market – World’s 4th in power
Figures at the end of 2008. Electricity generation Based on gross output.*) incl. Montenegro, KosovoSource: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2009
0
10
20
30
40
50
Russia Ira
nQata
r
Turkmen
istan
Saudi
Arabia US
UAENige
riaVen
ezue
laAlge
riaInd
ones
iaIra
q
0
10
20
30
40
Saudi
Arabia
Iran
Iraq
Kuwait
Venez
uela
UAERus
siaLib
yaKaz
akhs
tanNige
ria USCan
ada
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
USChin
aJa
pan
Russia
India
German
yCan
ada
France
South
Korea
Brazil
Nordic UK
0
50
100
150
200
250
USRus
siaChin
aAus
tralia
India
Ukraine
Kazak
hstan
South
Africa
Serbia*
Poland
Brazil
Colombia
Power generation
Oil reserves Natural gas reserves
Trilli
on c
ubic
met
res
billio
n to
ns
Coal reserves
TWh
billio
n to
ns
0
10
20
30
40
50
Russia Ira
nQata
r
Turkmen
istan
Saudi
Arabia US
UAENige
riaVen
ezue
laAlge
riaInd
ones
iaIra
q
0
10
20
30
40
Saudi
Arabia
Iran
Iraq
Kuwait
Venez
uela
UAERus
siaLib
yaKaz
akhs
tanNige
ria USCan
ada
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
USChin
aJa
pan
Russia
India
German
yCan
ada
France
South
Korea
Brazil
Nordic UK
0
50
100
150
200
250
USRus
siaChin
aAus
tralia
India
Ukraine
Kazak
hstan
South
Africa
Serbia*
Poland
Brazil
Colombia
Power generation
Oil reserves Natural gas reserves
Trilli
on c
ubic
met
res
billio
n to
ns
Coal reserves
TWh
billio
n to
ns
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Fortum has long experience of successful co-operation with Soviet Union and Russia
*) Including single largest purchase agreement of uranium with TVEL
Agreement on Joint Implementation of Kyoto Protocol with TGC-1
Sale of Fortum's stakein Lenergo (Distribution)
TGC-1
Construction of hydro power plants in Kola area
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Lenenergo shareholding
Nuclear fuel import to Finland*
Automation & information system deliveries to thermal power plants
Safety improvements for nuclear power plants
Permanent presence in Moscow & St. Petersburg
Construction of Loviisa nuclear power plant
Electricity import to Finland
Construction of North-West CHP in St. Petersburg
St Petersburg Sales Co
Lenenergo split
TGC-10 acquisition
OAO Fortum (delisted)
Co-operation
Ownerships
16
• Further liberalisation of energy market increased to 60% in January 2010
• The rate of liberalised volume is based on 2007 balance. All new capacity is sold with liberal prices
• The sales to households will remain regulated still after 2011
Share of liberalised trade for existing capacity
5 %10 %
15 %25 %
30 %
50 %60 %
80 %100 %
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
100 %
Jan 2007
100 %
July 2007
Jan 2008
July 2008
Jan 2009
July 2009
Jan 2010
July 2010
Jan2011
Further power market liberalisation
17
2007 2013
MW
+73%+2,270 MW
3,020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
5,290
Investment programme of OAO Fortum
Power generation capacity (MW)
Plant Fuel type Existing Planned Total
Tyumen CHP-2 Gas 755 450 1,205Tyumen CHP-1, Q3/2010 Gas 472 190 662Tobolsk CHP, Q3/2010 Gas 452 210 662Chelyabinsk CHP-3, Q4/2010 Gas 360 220 580Chelyabinsk CHP-2 Coal, gas 320 320Argayash CHP Coal, gas 195 195Chelyabinsk CHP-1 Coal, gas 149 149Chelyabinsk GRES Gas 82 82Nyagan GRES Gas 3x400 1,200Boilers -
Total 3,020 2,270 5,290
(Kurgan Generation (49%) Gas 235 235)
(CHP/Condensing)
(CHP/Condensing)(Condensing)
(Condensing)
(Condensing)
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Main earnings drivers of OAO Fortum
Development of the Heat business
Margin increase(power price vs. gas price)
Increased income from new volume sold
Increased income from new capacity(higher payments for new capacity)
Efficiency improvement programme
New capacity and volume through investment programme;appr. 2,270 MW new capacity
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MEUR 2009 2008 2007
EBITDA 2 292 2 478 2 298Net cash flow from operations 2 264 2 002 1 670Interest-bearing net debt 5 969 6 179 4 466Equity 8 491 8 411 8 651Balance sheet total 19 841 20 278 17 674Net debt/EBITDA* 2.6 2.5 2.2Return on capital employed (%)* 12.1 15.0 14.0Return on shareholders' equity (%)* 16.0 18.7 15.8
Key ratios
*2007 adjusted for REC and Lenenergo gains
Strong financial position
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Nord Pool year forwards
05
1015202530354045505560657075
Year 15Year 07 Year 08 Year 09 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14€/MWh1 March 2010
2006Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2007Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2008Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2009Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2010
21
Hedging of Power division's Nordic sales
Hedge ratio Hedge price
2010 ~ 70% ~ EUR 44 per MWh
Status at the end of December 2009(Status at the end of Sep 2009)
(~65%) (~ EUR 44 per MWh)
2011 ~ 40% ~ EUR 42 per MWh(~35%) (~ EUR 42 per MWh)
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Fortum in a strong position
• Flexible, low-cost and climate-benign generation portfolio• Russian power reform proceeding and the results of OAO Fortum
improving as planned• Nordic power demand recovering• New power plants to be commissioned this year• Good hedging positions• Strong financial position and liquidity
Fortum in a strong position