forum eds 2012 - vlasios voudouris

8/2/2019 Forum EDS 2012 - Vlasios Voudouris

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The ACEGES project

Dr. Vlasios Voudouris


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Why the ACEGES project?

Business schools increasingly understand the importance of sustainable thinking

Because businesses need to develop long-term strategies to secure their survival within achanging business environment

Agent-based Computational Economics of the Global Energy System ( ACEGES ) =new generation of long-term decision scenarios

Scenarios are plausible stories about the future

Scenario developers MUST use computational tools to support the non-mechanistic, mental process of scenario development

Business strategists SHOULD use scenarios to test the resilience of their strategies

Policy makers SHOULD use scenarios to design policies that perform well underalternative futures

Our students are introduced to ACEGES-based scenarios as a way of developingsustainable strategies and thinking about new business models


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How ACEGES was integrated into the educational programme?

We follow a project-based approach given real -world datasets

Students are given a single question to address such as What is the global productionoutlook of oil until 2050?

Students form scenario teams (no more than 6 students per scenario team)

Each scenario team, conducts a historical research on the following key building blocks :


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Scenarios dimensions

ACEGES

Research

Risk

Decision Scenarios


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and what about the scenario process ?


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What is the Problem?


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ACEGES Model


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ABM

What about the current events in MENA?The Berlin Wall of MENA!

"This is a powderkeg that could go up at any moment"

ABM ANALYTICS Tools


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FROM Turmoil TO Tsunami as a threat to oil and gas output

What about the current events in MENA? what about wider implications?

Unrest in MENA highlights the possibility of successful anti- regime

protests occurring in apparently unlikely environments . Economist Intelligence Unit, 10 February 2011

No Egyptian leader will make Mubaraks mistake again , which

does not portend well for Washingtons position in the MiddleEast.... The United States should greatly lower its expectations of what is possible in the post-Mubarak era and come to terms with the end of the strategic relationship . Steven A Cook, Council on Foreign Relations, 2 February 2011

Looking north-east of MENA, namely FSU

Looking south of MENA, namely Sub-Saharan Africa

Todays Tiananmen is not Tahrir David Pilling , Financial Times,17 February 2011

The next Turkey or the next Pakistan ?Gideon Rachman, Financial Times,15 February 2011


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Key Uncertainties


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Key Uncertainties


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Traditional models


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Traditional models


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Traditional models


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Traditional models: discrete scenarios


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Model

Uncertainties

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Traditional models: How?


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ACEGES-based scenarios: continuous scenarios


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=

2002

2003 2004 20052006

ACEGES-based scenarios : How?


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Model

Uncertainties

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

ACEGES-based scenarios : How?


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Crude oil price changes


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Oil cost curves


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what about above ground supply shocks?


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ACEGES - DEMO


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Thank You

Dr. Vlasios Voudouris

forum eds 2012 - vlasios voudouris

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