forum portugal energy power: renewable energy in europe – until and beyond 2020 –

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Renewable Energy in Europe until and beyond 2020 Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes President Porto 21 November 2013

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Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes, Presidente do European Renewable Energy Council Conferência Internacional Europe Business - "Mais eficiência, Maior Competitividade em Portugal" FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER promovido pela ANJE no dia 21 de novembro, na Alfândega do Porto

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Page 1: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes

President

Porto – 21 November 2013

Page 2: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

The United Voice of the Renewables Sector

Page 3: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

Some facts:

Page 4: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

4

• Renewables are reliable technologies against Climate Change

RES are (nearly) carbon free or carbon neutral

• Renewables mitigate the risks of Price Volatility of Fossil Fuels

RE-technologies have high cost decreases

Wind, solar and geothermal energy are free

• Renewables reduce Dependency on Energy Imports

RES are domestic energy sources

• Provide significant contribution to Security of Energy Supply

Wide range of RE technologies are proven and mature

A mix of different technologies and resources is available

Renewable Energies mature & beneficial

Page 5: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

The future: 2050

Page 6: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

High RES in EU-“Energy Roadmap 2050”

Source: European Commission, Energy Roadmap 2050, Graph: EREC

Page 7: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Reference 18,7 33,3 40,5 40,9 40,3

CPI 19,8 34,5 43,7 47 48,8

Energy Efficiency 19,7 36,8 52,9 59,5 64,2

Diversified supply technologies 19,7 36,6 51,2 54,4 59,1

High RES 19,8 36,6 59,8 76,8 86,4

Delayed CCS 19,7 36,5 51,7 58,3 60,7

Low Nuclear 19,7 36,4 54,6 58,8 64,8

0

20

40

60

80

100

%

Share of RES-E

Dominant RE-Shares in electricity sector

Page 8: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

Reducing import dependency

Source: European Commission, Energy Roadmap 2050, Graph: EREC

Page 9: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

REthinking: 100% RE by 2050

RES overall

RES-H RES-T

RES-E

Page 10: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

Total Investment:

nearly 3,000 billion €

Until 2050: Benefits of 100% RE

Avoided fuel cost:

more than 1,000 billion €

More than 6 million jobs

>90% GHG-Reduction

Source: EREC – REthinking 2050

Page 11: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

Today

Page 12: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

Annual Power Capacity Additions in the EU:

70% Renewables in 2012

Source: EWEA

Page 13: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

13 percent

The share of EU´s final energy consumption

(23% RES-E, 15% RES-H, <5% in RES-T)

1/4

The amount that renewable energy contributes already to the EU´s 20% GHG reduction target

1.2 million

The number of jobs in the EU that already exist in the renewable energy sector

130 billion

The annual economic activity of the renewable energy industry

Page 14: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

2020

Page 15: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

2020 targets in Renewable Energy

Source: Eurostat - European Commission

“Statistical Pocketbook 2012”

EU reached 12.5%

RES in FEC already in

2010 = 1.8% above the

indicative trajectory

indicated in the

NREAPs for 2011/2012

Page 16: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

21 MS in 2011 are above their

2011/2012 interim targets

6 MS in 2011 are below their

2011/2012 interim targets

(FR, UK, LU, LV, NL, MT)

2011 RES shares of the EU as a whole

above 2011/2012 interim target

Progress towards

Renewable Energy

2020-targets (Status 2011)

Page 17: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

AAGRs needed to achieve 2020 targets

Source: EREC based on 2010 Eurostat data

Page 18: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

The EU is on track so far...

0

5

10

15

20

25

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

[%]

RES Share in gross final energy consumption actual overall RES share

NREAP overall RES trajectory

minimum trajectory defined inthe RES Directive

Page 19: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

…with the transport sector below planned

developments

0,00

5,00

10,00

15,00

20,00

25,00

30,00

35,00

40,00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

[%]

RES sector share in final sectoral energy consumption

actual RES-E share

NREAP RES-E trajectory

actual RES-H share

NREAP RES-H trajectory

actual RES-T share

NREAP RES-T trajectory

Page 20: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

2010-2011 Growth Rates vs. AAGR required to meet

2020 ambitions

-4,00

-2,00

0,00

2,00

4,00

6,00

8,00

10,00

TransportElectricity

Heat

overall

“Current policies being insufficient

to trigger the required renewable

energy deployment in a majority of

Member States.”

(COM 2013 175 final)

“In the heating & cooling sector in

particular, it seems significant

improvements in the policy

framework are needed.”

(COM SWD 2013 102 final)

Page 21: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

Meet the challenges and reap

the benefits of renewables!

Global uptake of policies for renewables:

decreasing European share in growing global market

Lack of policy certainty in Europe (policy changes

in MS and ongoing uncertainty about post-2020)

Stable and reliable integrated climate and energy

framework for 2030 needed – including ambitious

and binding targets for GHG-emissions reduction,

energy efficiency and renewable energy.

Page 22: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

The next step: 2030

Page 23: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

Historic and projected growth

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

BAU Roadmap 2050 (%)

Continued 2010-2020 growth post-2020 (%)

COM (2012) 271 final “RES Strategy”

„Clarity on long term policy is

needed to ensure that the

necessary investment is made.“

Page 24: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

May 2011

April 2013

Page 25: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

long-term predictability of market volumes and direction

decrease the costs

of uncertainty

facilitating the achievement of

the existing 2020 targets in the

most efficient way

Clear signal for investors

Page 26: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

Growing the economy

Economic activity valued €137 billion

Page 27: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

Technology leadership

global competition

with China, U.S.,

South Korea or

India

capitalise on

exporting

opportunities in

growing global

markets

reap benefits of first-mover advantage

Page 28: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

Replacing fossil fuel imports

550 Mtoe by 2030 (€350 billion)

equivalent to consumption of Belgium, Germany,

Latvia, Poland, the UK and Spain

RES technology export instead of fossil fuel imports

Page 29: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

Creating Jobs

Page 30: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –

Which energy priority for 2043?

Priorities now for the next 30 years:

fewer than one in ten Europeans

think that unconventional fossil fuels

should be prioritised

70% of Europeans think renewable

energy sources should be the

priority energy option

In all 27 MS, RES is the most

mentioned priority for energy

options in the next 30 years

Source: Eurobarometer 360_2013

Page 31: FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER: Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –