forum portugal energy power: renewable energy in europe – until and beyond 2020 –
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Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes, Presidente do European Renewable Energy Council Conferência Internacional Europe Business - "Mais eficiência, Maior Competitividade em Portugal" FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER promovido pela ANJE no dia 21 de novembro, na Alfândega do PortoTRANSCRIPT
Renewable Energy in Europe – until and beyond 2020 –
Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes
President
Porto – 21 November 2013
The United Voice of the Renewables Sector
Some facts:
4
• Renewables are reliable technologies against Climate Change
RES are (nearly) carbon free or carbon neutral
• Renewables mitigate the risks of Price Volatility of Fossil Fuels
RE-technologies have high cost decreases
Wind, solar and geothermal energy are free
• Renewables reduce Dependency on Energy Imports
RES are domestic energy sources
• Provide significant contribution to Security of Energy Supply
Wide range of RE technologies are proven and mature
A mix of different technologies and resources is available
Renewable Energies mature & beneficial
The future: 2050
High RES in EU-“Energy Roadmap 2050”
Source: European Commission, Energy Roadmap 2050, Graph: EREC
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Reference 18,7 33,3 40,5 40,9 40,3
CPI 19,8 34,5 43,7 47 48,8
Energy Efficiency 19,7 36,8 52,9 59,5 64,2
Diversified supply technologies 19,7 36,6 51,2 54,4 59,1
High RES 19,8 36,6 59,8 76,8 86,4
Delayed CCS 19,7 36,5 51,7 58,3 60,7
Low Nuclear 19,7 36,4 54,6 58,8 64,8
0
20
40
60
80
100
%
Share of RES-E
Dominant RE-Shares in electricity sector
Reducing import dependency
Source: European Commission, Energy Roadmap 2050, Graph: EREC
REthinking: 100% RE by 2050
RES overall
RES-H RES-T
RES-E
Total Investment:
nearly 3,000 billion €
Until 2050: Benefits of 100% RE
Avoided fuel cost:
more than 1,000 billion €
More than 6 million jobs
>90% GHG-Reduction
Source: EREC – REthinking 2050
Today
Annual Power Capacity Additions in the EU:
70% Renewables in 2012
Source: EWEA
13 percent
The share of EU´s final energy consumption
(23% RES-E, 15% RES-H, <5% in RES-T)
1/4
The amount that renewable energy contributes already to the EU´s 20% GHG reduction target
1.2 million
The number of jobs in the EU that already exist in the renewable energy sector
130 billion
The annual economic activity of the renewable energy industry
2020
2020 targets in Renewable Energy
Source: Eurostat - European Commission
“Statistical Pocketbook 2012”
EU reached 12.5%
RES in FEC already in
2010 = 1.8% above the
indicative trajectory
indicated in the
NREAPs for 2011/2012
21 MS in 2011 are above their
2011/2012 interim targets
6 MS in 2011 are below their
2011/2012 interim targets
(FR, UK, LU, LV, NL, MT)
2011 RES shares of the EU as a whole
above 2011/2012 interim target
Progress towards
Renewable Energy
2020-targets (Status 2011)
AAGRs needed to achieve 2020 targets
Source: EREC based on 2010 Eurostat data
The EU is on track so far...
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
[%]
RES Share in gross final energy consumption actual overall RES share
NREAP overall RES trajectory
minimum trajectory defined inthe RES Directive
…with the transport sector below planned
developments
0,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
25,00
30,00
35,00
40,00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
[%]
RES sector share in final sectoral energy consumption
actual RES-E share
NREAP RES-E trajectory
actual RES-H share
NREAP RES-H trajectory
actual RES-T share
NREAP RES-T trajectory
2010-2011 Growth Rates vs. AAGR required to meet
2020 ambitions
-4,00
-2,00
0,00
2,00
4,00
6,00
8,00
10,00
TransportElectricity
Heat
overall
“Current policies being insufficient
to trigger the required renewable
energy deployment in a majority of
Member States.”
(COM 2013 175 final)
“In the heating & cooling sector in
particular, it seems significant
improvements in the policy
framework are needed.”
(COM SWD 2013 102 final)
Meet the challenges and reap
the benefits of renewables!
Global uptake of policies for renewables:
decreasing European share in growing global market
Lack of policy certainty in Europe (policy changes
in MS and ongoing uncertainty about post-2020)
Stable and reliable integrated climate and energy
framework for 2030 needed – including ambitious
and binding targets for GHG-emissions reduction,
energy efficiency and renewable energy.
The next step: 2030
Historic and projected growth
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
BAU Roadmap 2050 (%)
Continued 2010-2020 growth post-2020 (%)
COM (2012) 271 final “RES Strategy”
„Clarity on long term policy is
needed to ensure that the
necessary investment is made.“
May 2011
April 2013
long-term predictability of market volumes and direction
decrease the costs
of uncertainty
facilitating the achievement of
the existing 2020 targets in the
most efficient way
Clear signal for investors
Growing the economy
Economic activity valued €137 billion
Technology leadership
global competition
with China, U.S.,
South Korea or
India
capitalise on
exporting
opportunities in
growing global
markets
reap benefits of first-mover advantage
Replacing fossil fuel imports
550 Mtoe by 2030 (€350 billion)
equivalent to consumption of Belgium, Germany,
Latvia, Poland, the UK and Spain
RES technology export instead of fossil fuel imports
Creating Jobs
Which energy priority for 2043?
Priorities now for the next 30 years:
fewer than one in ten Europeans
think that unconventional fossil fuels
should be prioritised
70% of Europeans think renewable
energy sources should be the
priority energy option
In all 27 MS, RES is the most
mentioned priority for energy
options in the next 30 years
Source: Eurobarometer 360_2013