EEA-JRC-WHO Report No X/2008

Impacts of Europe’s changing climate2008 indicator based assessment

Contents

Acknowledgements 10

Summary 11

1 Introduction 18

1.1 Background and policy framework 18

1.2 Purpose and scope of this report 19

1.3 Outline 20

2 The Earth, its Climate and Man 22

3 Observed impacts: a cascade of effects with feed-backs 27

4 Climate change impacts: what the future has in store 31

4.1 Risks of climate change and the EU’s long-term goal 31

4.2 Climate change risks: probing the future 36

4.3 Can damage be avoided? 39

4.4 What is needed to meet the EU objective? 41

5 An Indicator-based assessment 43

5.1 Introduction 43

5.2 Atmosphere and climate 44

5.2.1 Introduction 445.2.2 Global and European temperature 465.2.3 European precipitation 495.2.4 Temperature extremes in Europe 515.2.5 Precipitation extremes in Europe 545.2.6 Storms and storm surges in Europe 585.2.7 Air pollution by ozone 61

5.3 Cryosphere 64

5.3.1 Introduction 645.3.2 Glaciers 665.3.3 Snow cover 695.3.4 Greenland ice sheet 725.3.5 Arctic sea ice 755.3.6 Mountain permafrost 79

5.4 Marine systems 815.4.1 Introduction 815.4.2 Sea level rise 835.4.3 Sea surface temperature 875.4.4 Marine Phenology 90

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5.4.5 Northward movement of marine species 93

5.5 Terrestrial ecosystems, biodiversity 97

5.5.1 Introduction 975.5.2 Distribution of plant species 985.5.3 Plant phenology 1035.5.4 Distribution of animal species 1065.5.5 Animal phenology 1105.5.6 Impacts on ecosystem functioning 112

5.6 Agriculture and forestry 115

5.6.1 Introduction 1155.6.2 Crop yield variability 1165.6.3 Timing of the cycle of agricultural crops (agrophenology) 1185.6.4 Irrigation demand 1205.6.5 Forest growth 1225.6.6 Forest fire danger 1245.6.7 Soil organic carbon 1265.5.8 Growing season 128

5.7 Water quantity, droughts, floods 130

5.7.1 Introduction 1305.7.2 River flow 1315.7.3 River floods 1345.7.4 River flow drought 137

5.8 Water quality and fresh water ecology 141

5.8.1 Introduction 1415.8.2 Water temperature 1435.8.3 Lake and river ice cover 1465.8.4 Freshwater ecology 148

5.9 Human health 1515.9.1 Introduction 1515.9.2 Heat and health 1525.9.3 Vector borne diseases 1555.9.4 Water and food borne diseases 158

6 Economic consequences of climate change 161

6.1 Introduction 161

6.2 Direct loses from weather disasters 163

6.3 Normalised losses from river flood disasters 167

6.4 Energy 171

6.5 Coastal areas 177

6.6 Agriculture and forestry 179

6.7 Tourism and recreation 182

6.8 Health 185

6.9 Public water supply and drinking water management 187

6.10 Nature and Biodiversity 189

6.11 The Costs of climate change for society 190

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7 Adaptation 192

7.1 Adaptation is required even if global greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized 193

7.2 Also Europe is vulnerable and will have to adapt 193

7.3 Different vulnerable systems at different geographic levels require different approaches 195

7.4 From European and national plans to regional and local implementation 196

8 Uncertainties, data availability, gaps and future needs 197

8.1 Sources of uncertainty 197

8.2 Uncertainties and data gaps in indicators 199

8.3 Gap filling and further needs 203

References 206

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List of maps and graphs

Map S.1 Biogeographical regions in Europe

Figure 2.1 Scheme of the reflection of sunslight by aerosols and cluds and by the surface of the Earth

Figure 2.2 Scheme of the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere.

Figure 2.3 Scheme of the radiation balance of the Earth and Atmosphere system

Figure 2.4 Scheme of the carbon cycle

Figure 2.5 Antarctic temperature change and atmospheric CO2 concentration over the last 420,000 years.

Figure 2.6 Several reconstructions of the Northern Hemispheric mean temperature over the last 1000 years

Figure 2.7 Observed changes in global average surface temperature, global average sea level and Northern Hemispheric snow cover from 1850

Map 3.1 Surface air temperature in Europe during the period 1970 - 2004

Figure 3.2 Selected relationships between some of the impacts discussed in this report

Figure 4.1 Locations of significant changes in data series the Earth physical and biological systems between 1970 and 2004

Figure 4.2 Examples of global impacts in various sectors associated with different levels of climate change.

Figure 4.3 Examples of global impacts in various world regions associated with different levels of climate change.

Figure 4.4 The probabilistic transient temperature implications for the stabilization pathways at 450, 550, 650 ppm CO2-eq. concentration and the pathways that peak at 510 ppm, 550 ppm, 650 ppm.

Figure 5.2.1.1 Mean winter (December–March) NAO index for period 1864 - 2002

Figure 5.2.2.1 Observed global and European annual average temperature deviations, 1850-2007, relative to the 1850-1899 average

Map 5.2.2.2 Observed temperature change over Europe during last 50 years.

Map 5.2.2.3 Modelled change in mean daily temperature over Europe from period 1961-1990 to 2071-2100 and seasonal changes for summer and winter seasons

Map 5.2.3.1 Trend of annual precipitation amounts from 1946 to 2006

Map 5.2.3.2 Modelled precipitation amount change over Europe from period 1961-1990 to 2071-2100 and seasonal changes for summer and winter seasons

Map 5.2.4.1 Changes in duration of warm spells in summer and frequency of frost days in the period 1976-2006

Map 5.2.4.2 Modelled number of tropical nights over Europe from control period (1961-1990) and scenario period (2071-2100) during summer and change between periods.

Map 5.2.4.3 Summer 2003 temperature anomaly with respect to 1961–1990 period

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Map 5.2.5.1 Trends in precipitation fraction due to very wet days between 1976 and 2006

Figure 5.2.5.2 Course (1860–2100) of European land average of maximum 5-day precipitation sum in Europe

Figure 5.2.5.3 Course (1860–2100) of European land average of maximum number of consecutive dry days

Figure 5.2.6.1 Storm index course in the period 1881 - 2004 for north-western, north and central Europe

Map 5.2.6.2 Relative change in the annual maximum daily mean wind speed between the +2°C scenario for 2050 and the reference climate (1961-2000)

Map 5.2.6.3 Change in the height of an extreme water level event (with probability of occurrence 2 times in 100 years)

Map 5.2.7.1 Linear trends of surface ozone concentrations at 90% significance level

Figure 5.2.7.2 Change in number of ozone exceedance days per year from period 1990-1994 to the period 1999-2004

Figure 5.3.2.1 Cumulative ice loss of glaciers from all European regions with glaciers

Figure 5.3.2.2 Shrinking of the Vernagt-ferner glacier, Austria

Figure 5.3.2.3 Modelled remains of the glacierisation in the European Alps according to an increase in summer air temperature of +1 to +5 °C.

Map 5.3.3.1 Differences in the distribution of March-April average snow-cover in Europe between periods1967-1987 and 1988-2004.

Figure 5.3.3.2 Northern Hemisphere snow-cover extent departures from monthly means between 1966 and 2005

Map 5.3.3.3 Mean number of days with snow cover for the period 1961-1990 and projected changes for the period 2071-2100.

Figure 5.3.4.1 Changes in glaciation of the ice mass changes in Greenland in the period 1992 - 2006

Figure 5.3.4.2 Area of Greenland that undergoes melting in the period 1979 - 2007

Figure 5.3.5.1 Time series of arctic sea-ice extent (March, September) for the period 1979 - 2006.

Map 5.3.5.2 Sea ice coverage on 16 Sept 2007

Figure 5.3.5.3 Arctic September sea ice extent between 1901 and 2100)

Figure 5.3.6.1 Temperature in a mountain range containing permafrost

Figure 5.3.6.2 Temperatures measured in different boreholes between 1987 and 2007

Figure 5.3.6.3 The Matterhorn

Figure 5.3.6.3 The Rock-Glacier Murtel-Corvatsch

Map 5.4.2.1 Sea level rise at different European tide gauge stations from 1896 to 2004

Figure 5.4.2.2 Trends in global sea level from 1870 to 2006

Map 5.4.2.3 Sea level variation trends in Europe from 1992 to 2007

Figure 5.4.2.4 Projected global average sea level rise from 1990 to 2100

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Figure 5.4.3.1 Annual average SST difference from the 1982-2006 average in different European seas.

Map 5.4.3.2 Spatial distribution of the SST linear trend of the last 25 years (1982-2006) for the European Seas.

Figure 5.4.4.1 Decapod abundance in the central North Sea highlighting the mean seasonal peak in abundance for the period 1950-2005 and the month of seasonal peak of decapod larvae for each year 1958-2005

Figure 5.4.4.2 Change in color index in southern North Sea from the 1950'ies until 2000s

Map 5.4.5.1 Northward movement of zooplankton between two time periods (1958-1981) and (1982-1999).

Map 5.4.5.2 Recordings of tropical fish and warm-water copepods in different years of the period 1963 - 1996.

Figure 5.4.5.3 Relative abundance of warm-water to cold-water flatfish species depending on mean annual SST.

Figure 5.5.2.1 Change in species richness on Swiss Alpine mountain summits in the last 100 years.

Map 5.5.2.2 Expansion of the climatically-limited species Holly (Ilex aquifolium) between periods 1931 - 1960 and 1981 - 2000.

Map 5.5.2.3 Projected changes in plant species in Europe in 2050

Figure 5.5.2.4 Total number of species projected to have potentially suitable climate space within each European region from present to 2080

Figure 5.5.3.1 Phenological sensitivity to temperature changes

Figure 5.5.3.2 Oak (Quercus sp) leafing date in Surey (UK) from 1950 to 2005

Figure 5.5.4.1 Latitudinal shifts in northern range margins in Britain for 16 taxonomic groups over the past 40 years

Map 5.5.4.2 Recorded occurrence of the comma butterfly (Polygonia c-album) in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2000.

Map 5.5.4.3 Potential changes in climate space of reptiles and amphibians in 2050

Figure 5.5.5.1 Changes in egg laying dates of the flycatcher across Europe during the period 1990-2002

Map 5.5.6.1 Current range of the butterfly Titiania fritillary (Boloria titania) and its host plant American bistorpt (Polygonum bistorta) in Europe.

Map 5.5.6.2 Projected niche spaces of the butterfly Titiania fritillary (Boloria titania) and its host plant American bistorpt (Polygonum bistorta) for time horizon 2080

Map 5.6.2.1 Modelled suitability change for grain maize cultivation in the past (1961–1990) and in the future (2071–2100)

Figure 5.6.2.2 Yield variation due to temperature increase for maize and wheat

Map 5.6.3.1 Rate of advance in the yearly date of flowering of winter wheat for the period 1975-2007.

Figure 5.6.3.2 Evolution of potential alcohol levels at harvest for Riesling in Alsace (F) from 1971 to 2003.

Map 5.6.4.1 Variation in the annual meteorological water balance between April and October in the period 1975 - 2007.

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Figure 5.6.4.2 Climatic water balance in various parts of Europe in the period 1975 - 2006

Map 5.6.5.1 Modelled change of habitat suitability of the 10 most dominant European Forest Categories, for current (year 2000) and future (year 2100)

Map 5.6.6.1 Trends of fire danger level from 1958 to 2006 using the Seasonal Severity Rating.

Map 5.6.6.2 Projected (2071-2100) and control (1961-1990) three-monthly fire danger levels in Europe.

Map 5.6.7.1 Changes in soil organic carbon contents across England and Wales between 1978 and 2003.

Map 5.6.7.2 Projected changes of organic carbon in the EU’s agricultural soil for time horizon 2080.

Map 5.6.8.1 Variation of growing season length in the period 1975 - 2007

Figure 5.6.8.2 Duration of the frost-free period for various regions of Europe in the period 1975 - 2006

Map 5.7.2.1 Change in annual river flow for the period 1971-98 relative to 1900-1970.

Map 5.7.2.2 Relative change in mean annual and seasonal stream low between scenario (2071-2100) and control period (1961-1990).

Figure 5.7.2.3 Change in daily average river flow between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990.

Map 5.7.3.1 Recurrence of flood events in Europe for the period 1998-2005.

Map 5.7.3.2 Relative change in 100-year return level of river discharge between scenario (2071-2100) and control period (1961-1990)

Map 5.7.4.1 Change in the severity of river flow drought (as expressed by annual maximum deficit volume, AMV) for the period 1962-1990.

Map 5.7.4.2 Change in the severity of river flow drought in France for the period 1960-2000.

Map 5.7.4.3 Relative change in mean annual and summer minimum 7-day river flow between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990.

Figure 5.8.2.1 Trend in annual water temperature in river Rhine (1909–2006), Danube (1901–1998) and average water temperature in August in Lake Saimaa, Finland (1924–2000).

Figure 5.8.2.2 Observed changes in annual average deepwater temperatures in selected European lakes between 1951 and 2005.

Figure 5.8.3.1 Ice break-up dates from selected European lakes and rivers and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index for winter (Dec. - Feb.) in the period 1835 - 2005.

Figure 5.8.4.1 Northward shift of range margins of British Odonata between 1960–1970 and 1985–1995 and observed occurrence of 7 types of southern dragonflies in Belgium, 1980-2005

Map 5.8.4.2 The share of Trichoptera taxa sensitive to climate change in the European ecoregions.

Map 5.9.2.1 Number of excess death in summer 2003 and for 2070

Figure 5.9.2.2 Factors affecting human thermoregulation and the risk of heat illness

Map 5.9.3.1 Recent (January 2007) and projected distribution of Aedes albopictus in Europe

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Map 5.9.4.1 some maps/graphs from Belgrade report?

Map 6.1.1 Summary of Economic Effects across Europe

Figure 6.2.1 Natural disasters in Europe 1980-2007 (number of events).

Figure 6.2.2 Natural disasters in Europe 1980-2007 (percentage distribution).

Figure 6.2.3 Overall and insured losses by weather disasters in Europe in the period 1980-2007

Figure 6.3.1 EU flood losses per thousand of GDP between 1970 and 2005

Figure 6.3.2 Casualties caused by flood disasters in the EU between 1970 and 2005.

Map 6.3.3 Projected change in 100-year flood damage by 2100 time horizon

Figure 6.4.1 Heating Degree Days (HDD) in Europe in the period 1980 - 2005.

Map 6.4.2 Projections of energy demand for various time horizons in Europe

Figure 6.4.3 Projected changes in hydropower production in Scandinavia for 2070 - 2100

Map 6.4.4 Projected changes in hydropower production potential in Europe for 2070s

Figure 6.4.5 Number of days per year when the temperature of the water in the Rhine was higher than 23°C during the period 1909–2003

Map 6.5.1 People actually flooded in coastal areas across Europe and for time horizon 2080s

Map 6.6.1 Simulated crop yield changes by 2080s relative to the period 1961-1990

Map 6.7.1 Simulated conditions for summer tourism in Europe for 1961-1990 and 2071-2100

Figure 6.11.1 The coverage of marginal economic costs of climate change against the risk matrix.

Figure 7.1 Emphasis on different types of adaptation polices in different European regions

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Acknowledgements

This report was prepared by the European Environment Agency the Commission’s Joint Research centre (JRC-IES) and the Word Health Organization (European centre) with close cooperation with EEA's European Topic Centres.

Note: List of authors, contributors and acknowledgments for the support of those who contributed data, maps, graphs and comments will be further elaborated.

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Summary

Introduction

Background and objectiveThis report is an update and extension of the 2004 EEA report “Impacts of Europe’s changing climate”. Since 2004, much progress has been made in monitoring and assessing the impacts of climate change in Europe. The objectives of this report are to present this new information on past and projected climate change and its impacts through indicators; identify sectors and regions most vulnerable to climate change with a need for adaptation; and to highlight the need for enhanced monitoring and reducing uncertainties in climate and impact modelling. To reflect the widening of the coverage of the report and make use of the best available expertise, the report has been developed jointly between EEA, JRC and WHO.

Global developments science and policyThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 4th Assessment report reconfirmed and strengthened earlier scientific findings about key aspects of the climate problem. Increased monitoring and research efforts have enhanced the understanding of climate change impacts and vulnerability. At the 2007 Bali climate summit, the urgency of responding effectively to climate change through both adaptation and mitigation activities was recognized by a greater number of countries than ever before. By end of 2009, a post-Kyoto regime is expected to be agreed that would include both adaptation and mitigation. The implementation of the Nairobi work programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, developed to help countries improve their understanding of climate change impacts, has picked up speed. European developments science and policyEuropean research on impacts and vulnerability in the context of national programmes and the European 5th and 6th Framework Programmes has advanced considerably, making a major contribution to international assessments such as those of the IPCC, the Arctic Impact Assessment, and the UNEP Global Outlook for Ice and Snow. New research programmes focusing on adaptation are currently being developed in many member countries and in the context of the 7th Framework Programme. On the policy side, in 2007 the European Commission published its Green Paper on adaptation, to be followed by a White Paper by the end of 2008 with more concrete proposals for action. National adaptation strategies have been or are being developed in many member countries, usually on the basis of impact and vulnerability assessments.

This reportThe main part of this report summarizes the relevance, past trends and future projections for 36 indicators (from 22 in the 2004 report). The indicators address atmosphere and climate; the cryosphere; marine systems; terrestrial systems and biodiversity; agriculture and forestry; water quantity, foods and droughts; water quantity and fresh water ecology; and human health. After a brief introduction of the report, several chapters deal in a general way with the changes in the climate system, the observed impacts and the projected impacts, respectively. The report concludes

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with chapters on the economics of climate change impacts and adaptation; adaptation strategies and policies; and data availability and uncertainty.

Key messages

Atmosphere and climate.

Recent observations confirm that the global mean temperature has increased (by 0.76oC as compared to pore-industrial times for land and oceans, by 0.98oC just for land). Europe has warmed more than this (0.98 and 1.22oC, respectively), especially in the south-west, the north-east and mountain areas. Projections suggest temperature increases in Europe between 1-5.5oC by the end of this century. Whether the EU’s 2oC goal will be exceeded will depend on the effectiveness of international climate policy. Annual precipitation changes already exacerbate differences between a wet north (+10-40% since 1900) and a dry south (-20 %), a development that is projected to continue. The past tendency of an increasing number of hot extremes and a decreasing number of cold extremes is projected to continue. The same applies to the tendency of increased intensity of precipitation and droughts. No clear trend in the frequency and intensity of storms has yet been observed in Europe, but for the future heavier storms are projected, albeit with slightly lower frequency. Uncertainties for projected precipitation and extreme events continue to be larger than those for temperature.

Cryosphere.

Much scientific and political attention has recently been given to the changes in the cryosphere, the frozen world. European glaciers are rapidly melting: the glaciers in the Alps lost 2/3 of their volume since 1850, accelerating since 1985, and projected to continue their decline. Snow cover is decreasing with the greatest losses in spring (2 weeks earlier melt than 30 years ago) and autumn. Sea ice extent has fallen considerably and may even disappear at the height of the melt season in the upcoming decades, creating a feedback that will further increase climate change through the albedo effect. Also mountain permafrost is reducing due to increasing temperatures. New findings cast doubts on earlier conservative estimates of the stability of the Greenland ice sheet with potentially very large consequences for sea level rise on the longer term, but uncertainties remain large.

Marine systems.

According to satellite observations, the pace of global mean sea level rise has increased to more than 3 mm/year in the last decade (as compared to a global average in the 20st century of 1.7 mm/year). Because of ocean circulation and gravity effects sea level is different across different seas. Also an acceleration of sea surface temperature increases has been observed in recent decades. For the future, projections suggest European sea level and sea surface temperature to rise more than the global average. IPCC (2007) sea level rise estimates are possibly conservative because of the abovementioned risks of more rapid changes in the Greenland ice sheet than assessed so far. Changes in the phenology (periodic biological phenomena) and distribution of marine species have been observed, such as earlier seasonal cycles and northward movements. Because of the complex factors that influence behaviour, attribution of such changes to climate change remains difficult.

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Terrestrial ecosystems

Also for unmanaged terrestrial systems, changes in phenology and distribution of plant and animal species have been observed in Europe, most of which are consistent with observed climatic changes. This is particularly true for the vulnerable mountain regions in Europe. Projections suggest northward shifts of some species by hundreds of kilometers and in mountain areas hundreds of meters upward. Ecosystems are linked in all kinds of complex ways: changing one component affects the behaviour of other components and of the system as a whole. Landscape fragmentation hinders migration and adaptation in unmanaged systems even more than in managed systems, and extinctions of 5-35 % of plant species may occur in future.

Agriculture and forestry

In both agriculture and forestry, climate change affects average yields in parallel with land-use and management changes, making it difficult to identify a clear climate signal. The climate change signal is more evident for extreme conditions, including prolonged droughts or heat waves, such as the one in 2003 that decreased yields across Europe. For the future, more variable yields are projected. In the short-term in some parts of Europe, benefits from carbon fertilization and growing season extension may compensate for potentially negative climate change impacts, but as climate continues to change, eventually adverse effects are projected to dominate. Climate change is projected to increase forest fires risks in major parts of Europe. In agriculture and forestry adaptation is possible, however with some limits. Some of the adaptation options such as irrigation have trade-offs for mitigation, because of increased energy consumption.

Water quantity: floods and droughts.

Global warming intensifies the hydrological cycle. This has implications for river flows. In general, annual river flows have been observed to increase in the north and decrease in the south, a difference projected to be exacerbated in the future. Strong changes in seasonality are projected, with lower flows in the summer and larger flows in the winter. As a consequence, water stress will be exacerbated particularly in the south and in the summer. Particularly in winter and spring, more floods are projected. Climate change is one of several factors affecting river flows (e.g., land use), so attribution of changes in river flows remains difficult. In the past, the recorded number of floods was influenced heavily by the improving monitoring and reporting systems.

Water quality and freshwater ecology

Increased temperatures of lakes and rivers (by 1-3oC), have resulted in decrease of ice cover by (on average 12 days in the last century in Europe). These changes can be at least partly attributed to climate change, partly to other causes such as cooling and sewage water discharges. Warming of surface water can have several effects on water quality and hence on human use and aquatic ecosystems (e.g., reduced oxygen content, changes in stratification, increased pollution load). Further monitoring is needed to be able to analyze these changes.

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Health

Increased temperatures can have various effects on human health. The large number of additional deaths during the 2003 heat wave has highlighted the need for adaptation actions, such as heat wave warning systems. Such heat waves are projected to become much more common later in the century as the climate continue to change. There is some evidence that the number of victims from extreme or prolonged cold has decreased considerably in Europe and will continue to do so. Other health effects can be vector-, water- and foodborne diseases. Changes in bird migration routes and insect distribution increases the risks of related vector-borne diseases. A warmer climate can also enhance diseases related to water and food. The risks are not only related to climate change, but very much depend on human behaviour and the quality of health care services and its ability to adapt to climate change.

Economic impacts

Economic costs of climate-related changes have increased in Europe and are projected to increase further. The costs of weather-related disasters such as storms and floods are known best, because of the insurance risks involved. Even though social change and economic development are mainly responsible for increasing losses, there is evidence that changing patterns of weather disasters are drivers too. However, it is still not possible to determine the proportion of increase in damages that might be attributed to climate change. Some studies project increased frequency and intensity of extreme events, which would further increase cost. Economic costs and benefits of other climate impacts, such as those on coastal safety, agriculture, forestry, fisheries, energy supply, tourism and health have been quantified in some studies but factors other than climate change usually have a dominant effect on costs, and the costs of adaptation are poorly quantified.

Challenges

Improved monitoring and reporting

Over the last decades, the availability of data on climate change impacts has improved across Europe, but for many indicators the data result from a limited amount of local or regional projects and national or EU-wide research projects. No regular Europe-wide monitoring programmes exist. Some data are dependent on voluntary work of non-governmental organizations. There is more robust information available for observed and projected rate of climate change and impacts which are in many cases very different for the European regions (Fig. S.1 and table S.1). To tackle these changes and to develop adequate adaptation strategies requires more detailed information. Through coordinated efforts from countries and Commission, monitoring systems can be improved in a way that is consistent with SEIS. GMES projects could fill key data and information gaps and also the INSPIRE directive may help in this respect. It would be useful to have European agreement on the definition of key climate change indicators, including on extreme weather events (for example “floods” and “droughts”).

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Improved attribution methods

Even if many of the observed changes in various natural and societal systems are consistent with observed climatic changes, other factors also influence system behaviour. Disentangling the climate signal from other signals for different indicators remains a challenge. There is a need to improve in this area, in order to have better projections of impacts and be able to develop more focused adaptation actions.

Improved understanding of socio-economic and institutional aspects of vulnerability and adaptation

Much of the research and assessment activities to data have focused on the climatological, physical and biological aspects of climate change impacts. A better understanding of the socio-economic and institutional aspects of vulnerability and adaptation, including costs and benefits, is urgently needed.

Improved and coordinated scenario analysis of impacts and vulnerability.

Scenarios for the climate change impacts and vulnerability indicators presented in this report are as yet incomplete and different between indicators. Regular interaction is needed between the climate modeling community and the user community analyzing impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to develop high-resolution, tailor-made climate change scenarios for the regional and local level. It would be useful if European research projects would adopt the same contrasting set of climate scenarios for global development, such as those used by IPCC. Both explorative research for the very long term (centuries) would be needed as well as analysis of climate change impacts on the medium term (decades) for which there is a high need to be able to better develop adaptation actions.

Good practices in adaptation measures and their costs.

Only in the last few years, countries have started to prepare for climate change by developing and implementing adaptation strategies. Information on the available options at the national and especially sub-national level could be exchanged between EU member states on a regular basis. The understanding how adaptation can be integrated in other policy areas at the European and national level should be further improved (e.g., environmental policies like water management and biodiversity protection but also other like agriculture). Good practices can be developed from “resilience bottom-up approaches’” in addition to “top down scenario approaches”.

Develop information exchange mechanisms.

Both at the national and European level planned research programmes will result in a rapidly increasing amount of data and information on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. A European Clearing house on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation can make this information widely available to potential users across Europe. The information can include data on observed and projected climatic changes, information on vulnerable systems, indicators, tools for impacts assessments, and good practice adaptation measures.

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Table S.1 : Observed (obs) and projected (scen) trends in climate and impacts for Northern (arctic and boreal),temperate (Atlantic , Central, Eastern) and Mediterranean (med.) region of Europe

Indicator Northern Atlantic Central East Med.obs / scen obs / scen obs / scen obs / scen obs / scen

5.2 Atmosphere and climate5.2.2 Global and European temperature average ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑

winter ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑summer ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑

5.2.3 European precipitation average ↑ / ↑ ↑ / o o / o o / o ↓ / ↓winter ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↓ / ↑ ↓ / ↑ ↓ / o

summer ? / ↑ ? / ↓ ? / ↓ ? / ↓ ? / ↓5.2.4 Heat waves in Europe ? / ↑ ? / ↑ ? / ↑ ? / ↑ ? / ↑ Number of days with frost? ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓5.2.5 Precipitation extremes in Europe ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑5.2.6 Storms and storm surges in Europe o / ↑ o / ↑? o / o o / ↑ o / ↓5.2.7 Air pollution by ozone o / ↑ o / ↑ ↑ / ↑ o / ↑ ↑ / o

5.3 Cryosphere5.3.2 Mountain glaciers ↓ / ↓ n.a. / n.a. ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓5.3.3 Snow cover ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓ o / ↓ ↓ / ↓ ↑ / ↓5.3.4 Greenland ice sheet ↓ / ↓ n.a. / n.a. n.a. / n.a. n.a. / n.a. n.a. / n.a.5.3.5 Arctic sea ice ↓ / ↓ n.a. / n.a. n.a. / n.a. n.a. / n.a. n.a. / n.a.5.3.6 Mountain permafrost ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓

5.4 Marine systems5.4.2 Sea level ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑5.4.3 Sea surface temperature ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑5.4.4 Phytoplankton biomass and growing season ↑ / n.a. ↑ / n.a. n.a. / n.a. n.a. / n.a. n.a. / n.a.5.4.5 Marine phenology ↑ / ↑? ↑ / ↑? n.a. / n.a. n.a. / n.a. n.a. / n.a.5.4.6 Marine northward movement ↑ / n.a. ↑ / n.a. n.a. / n.a. n.a. / n.a. n.a. / n.a.

5.5 Terrestrial ecosystems, biodiversity5.5.2 North- / upward shift of plant species n.a. / ↑ n.a. / ↑ ↑ / ↑(m) n.a. / ↑ n.a. / ↑5.5.3 Plant phenology* ↑ / ? ↑ / ? ↑ / ? ↑ / ? ↑ / ?5.5.4 North- / upward shift of animal species ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑5.5.5 Animal phenology ↑ / n.a. ↑ / n.a. ↑ / n.a. ↑ / n.a. ↑ / n.a.5.5.6 Impacts on communities ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓

5.6 Agriculture and forestry5.6.2 Crop yield ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↓5.6.3 Agrophenology ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑5.6.4 Irrigation demand ↓ / o ↓ / ↑ o / ↑ o / ↑ ↑ / ↑5.6.5 Forest growth ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↓5.6.6 Forest fire danger ↑ / ↓ ↓ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑5.6.7 Soil organic carbon ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓5.5.8 Growing season ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↓ ↑ / ↓ ↑ / ↑ ↓ / ↑

5.7 Water quantity, droughts, floods5.7.2 River flow ↑ / ↑ o / ↑ o / ↑ o / ↓ ↓ / ↓5.7.4 River floods (number of events) o / ↓ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ o / ↑5.7.5 River flow drought o / o o / o o / o o / o o / o

5.8 Water quality and fresh water ecology5.8.2 Water temperature ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ?↑ / ↑ ?↑ / ↑5.8.3 Lake and river ice coverage ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓ n.a. / n.a. n.a. / n.a. Chemical quality (box) ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↓5.8.5 Freshwater ecology (phenology and northwards shift)

↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑

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5.9 Human health 5.9.2 Heat and health ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑5.9.3 Vector borne diseases (case study) o / o o / ↑ o / o o / o ↑ / ↑5.9.4 Water and food borne diseases n.a. / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑

6. Economic sectors6.2 Direct losses from weather disasters ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑ ↑ / ↑6.3 Normalised losses from river flood disasters n.a. / ↑? ↑ / ↑? ↑ / ↑? ↑ / ↑? ↑ / ↑?

↑ = increasing↓ = decreasingo = no significant changes n.a. = not available* = only pan-European average availablem = mountain regions? = to be clarified

Figure S.1: Biogeographical regions in Europe (Source: EEA)

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Introduction

1.1 Background and policy framework

During the past decades, there have been notable changes in the global and European climate. Sea level and temperatures are rising, precipitation is changing and weather extremes show an increasing intensity and frequency in many regions.

The 2007 Fourth Assessment Report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that “warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level” (IPCC Synthesis Report, SPM, 2007).

The IPCC concluded further that “most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations” and “continued GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century (IPCC Synthesis Report, SPM, 2007).

Consequences of climate change include an increased risk of floods and droughts, losses of biodiversity, threats to human health, and damage to economic sectors such as energy, forestry, agriculture, and tourism. In some sectors, some new opportunities might occur, at least for some time, although over a longer time period and with increasing temperatures effects are likely to be adverse worldwide if no action is taken to reduce emissions or to adapt to the consequences of climate change.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) came into force in 1994. The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC is 'to achieve stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. To avoid “dangerous climate change” the EU has proposed a target of a maximum global temperature increase of 2ºC above the pre-industrial level. This will require global emissions to stop rising within the next 10 to 15 years and then be reduced to levels below 50% of 1990 levels by 2050. Within UNFCCC an international post-2012 international agreement is being negotiated, with the aim to reach an agreement at the climate conference planned in Copenhagen end of 2009.

However, there is a growing awareness that, even if GHG emissions were stabilised today, increases in temperature and associated impacts will continue for many decades to come. Even if the EU target is achieved, the global warming already incurred and embedded in unavoidable economic development will lead to climate change impacts to which countries worldwide will need to adapt. Within the UNFCCC and other UN organisations increasing attention is given to climate change adaptation especially in developing countries, since these, often poor, countries will suffer the earliest and most damaging effects, even though their greenhouse emissions are low and thus they have contributed least to the problem (Human Development

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Report 2007/2008, Fighting climate change: Human solidarity in a divided world, Nov. 2007).

Across Europe the most vulnerable regions and sectors are different, but in all countries the need to adapt to climate change has been recognised. The European Commission’s Green Paper on Adaptation (2007) started the EU adaptation policy process, while actions already take place at national level. A Commission White Paper on adaptation will be published by the end of 2008. Integration of climate change into other EU and national policy areas is already taking place, e.g. the Water Framework Directive (aimed at improving water quality), the Floods Directive (aimed at reducing damages from floods) and the European Commission’s Communication on Water Scarcity and Droughts.

Policy makers and the public need reliable information and a key challenge is to further develop the scientific understanding of climate change and impacts on a regional scale so that the best adaptation options possible can be developed and deployed. Some countries are developing or have finalised national vulnerability assessments and/or national adaptation plans. However, more vulnerability and adaptive capacity assessments across key economic sectors and environmental themes are needed. There is very little quantified information on adaptation costs and further work is needed to facilitate informed, cost effective and proportionate adaptation in Europe. There are many EU and national results projects on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. However results from such research programmes have often not been fully shared with policy makers and other stakeholders in a form that they can understand. There is a need for more projects that can help provide the right policy guidance and tools and which will help to build effective trans-national and sub-national networks.

1.2 Purpose and scope of this report

Taken into account the needs from policymakers, this report aims to present an indicator-based assessment of recent and projected climate changes and their impacts in Europe. The report is intended for a broad target audience consisting of policymakers at EU and national and sub-national level and the interested public and non-governmental organizations (e.g. environmental, businesses). The report is an update of a previous EEA report on climate change impacts in Europe (2004). It includes a number of additional indicators while some of the previous indicators have not been retained.

The European Environment Agency, the Commission’s Joint Research Centre and the World Health Organisation (European office) have joied forces to prepare this report. The Agency in its preparation also cooperated closely with several of its European Topic Centres (ETCs).

The report aims to provide short but comprehensive indicator information covering all main impact categories, where feasible across Europe (EEA 32 member countries). However for categories for which no Europe-wide data was available in some cases indicators have been developed and presented for smaller scales, provided data was available for at least several countries.

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The main objectives of the report are, for Europe: Present past and projected climate change and its impacts through indicators

(easily understandable, scientifically sound and policy relevant) Identify sectors and regions most vulnerable to climate change with a high need

for adaptation Increase awareness of the need for global, EU and national action on both

mitigation (to achieve the EU global temperature target) as well as adaptation Highlight the need for enhanced monitoring, data collection and dissemination,

and reducing uncertainties in climate and impact modelling

The report presents results of key recent national and EU-wide research activities (FP5-7 projects) and also builds on the fourth assessment of the IPCC (2007), and other recent key international assessments, including the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (2004, and its 2007 follow-up) and UNEP’s Global Outlook for Ice and Snow (2007). The report also uses information from national assessments from various European countries. The main added value compared to these other reports is the inclusion of the most recent scientific information and the specific focus on Europe.

All indicators are also available on the web through the EEA web site indicator management system. This will allow easy regular updating on the web of those indicators for which regular (possibly annual) new data will become available and for which trends are changing significantly in a relatively short period of a few years.

1.3 Outline

Chapter 2 of this report sets out the scientific background of climate change, its causes and its impacts. It also provides an overview of the linkages between the various indicator categories.

In chapter 3 an introduction and brief overview are presented of observed climate change in Europe.

Chapter 4 gives an overview of projected climate change and also discusses possible irreversible climate change with large potentially catastrophic risks. It also describes some background on climate change scenarios and projected climate change indicators.

The main part of the report is Chapter 5. The state of climate change and its impacts in Europe are described by means of about 40 indicators, divided into eight different categories: Atmosphere and climate Glaciers, snow and ice (cryosphere) Marine and coastal systems Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity Agriculture and forestry Water quantity Water quality and freshwater ecology Human health

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The indicators present selected and measurable examples of climate change and its impacts, which already show clear trends in response to climate change. Primarily only indicators have been selected for which data is available for about 20 years, although in some cases this period was shorter and explanations are provided why the indicator was still included. The responses of the selected indicators can be understood as being representative of the more complex responses of the whole category. Furthermore, the results can give an indication of where, to what extent and in which sectors Europe is vulnerable to climate change, now and in the future. Each indicator is presented in a separate sub-chapter containing a summary of the key messages, an explanation of the relevance of the indicator for the environment, society and policy, a short description of main uncertainties and the analysis of past, recent and future trends.

Chapter 6 addresses the effects of climate change on economic sectors, based on the available limited knowledge. For almost all sectors no complete European wide information is available, and therefore for many sectors information is provided from either a few countries or over a relatively limited time period.

Chapter 7 discusses climate change adaptation strategies and actions and reviews the current experiences.

Finally, Chapter 8 evaluates causes of uncertainties and discusses data availability and quality. It also proposes potential indicators which could broaden future climate impact assessments if monitoring would be performed and data would become available.

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2. The Earth, its Climate and Man

Climate change has hit the headlines of newspapers around the world. It got the attention from Nobel Prize and Academy Award committees. We have come to realize that we are responsible for climate change and that it is very likely to have significant effects on the way we and people after us are going to live. But what is climate? How does it work, how do we depend on it and how do we influence it? If we don’t understand climate, it will be difficult to care for it.

The climate of the Earth is described in terms of the temperature at e.g. the Earths surface, the strength of the winds and ocean currents, the presence of clouds and precipitation, to name a few of its most important features. Weather as we experience it day after day is obviously related to climate. However if we talk about climate we do not talk about the weather on a given day in a certain place, but rather about the weather averaged over a large geographical area and over a long time period, e.g. the Mediterranean climate during the second half of the past century.

Climate exists primarily because the Earth is receiving energy from the sun in the form of visible radiation: light.

The amount of light that reaches the Earths surface and that is absorbed by it depends on a number of factors. Obviously it depends on the amount of light that the suns emit and on the position of the Earth with respect to the Sun. It further depends on the composition of the Earths atmosphere through which the light must travel before reaching its surface. Certain atmospheric constituents, like aerosols (i.e. smoke, dust and haze) and clouds, do prevent sun light to reach the surface by reflecting it back into space (Fig. 2.1). Finally, very bright surfaces on the Earth, like snow and ice fields, do also reflect light. The fraction of the incoming light that is eventually absorbed by the surface will heat up the Earth; it will raise its temperature, will set in motion the atmosphere, creating winds, clouds and precipitation, and it will also help in maintaining the currents in the oceans.

It is a basic law of physics, and a fact and experience of every day life, that any object that has a certain temperature will radiate heat in the form of invisible infra-red radiation. We can feel the warmth of the object from a distance.

In case of the Earth, that infra-red radiation has again to pass through the atmosphere before it is lost to space. Gases like water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane and others absorb infrared radiation, and therefore keep the heat in the system (Fig. 2.2). These gases are called greenhouse gases, because they act in a way somewhat similar to the glass of a greenhouse.

The Earth, like the greenhouse, will have a constant “equilibrium” temperature when the amount of radiation that comes in equals the amount of radiation that goes out (Fig. 2.3).

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The amount of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and the chemical composition of the atmosphere in general, are controlled by natural processes that cycle specific substances, like water, carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur, between the atmosphere, the oceans and land. For understanding climate change and how it will develop in the future it is of importance to understand these cycles, in particular that of carbon, giving the primary role of carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas (see Fig. 2.4).

The complex interactions between the cycling of substances, radiation and other processes lead to the existence of feedback loops, which might either amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) an initial increase in greenhouse gas emission, temperature or some other parameter. A simple example of a negative feed-back is that a warmer climate will favour the growth of vegetation, leading to a larger uptake by that vegetation of CO2 from the atmosphere, leading to a reduction of the greenhouse effect and a cooler climate. A simple example of a positive feed-back is that a warming of the ocean will enhance the transfer of CO2 from the ocean to the atmosphere, leading to an additional greenhouse effect and further warming. A warming will also lead to more evaporation of water from the ocean into the atmosphere, and since water vapour is a greenhouse gas, it will also amplify the initial warming. This is an important mechanism that will amplify, nearly double, any initial global warming caused by man.

Looking at the 4.5 billion years history of the Earth, we see that a constant temperature on Earth has been an exception rather than a rule. The global mean temperature of the Earth has always been changing, because of changes in all of the natural factors mentioned above. Climate change has been an important driver in the evolution of the living species, including man.

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Figure 2.3When the incoming radiation equals the outgoing radiation for several hundreds of years, the Earth is will obtain a constant mean temperature

Figure 2.1Incoming sunlight is partly reflected by aerosols and clouds in the atmosphere and by the surface of the Earth.

outinoutin

Figure 2.2Heat radiating from the Earths surfacein the form of infra-red radiation willbe partly absorbed by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Figure 2.4The presence of CO2 in the atmosphere is a result of constant production and removal processes. These processes are part of the carbon cycle, which describes the cycling of carbon through the various compartments of the Earth System. During the past 10.000 years until about 150 years ago, the rate of CO2 production in the atmosphere (through natural processes such as respiration by vegetation and soils, natural fires, respiration from marine vegetation, volcanism …) has been roughly equal to the rate of CO2 removal (through photosynthesis by terrestrial vegetation and uptake by the oceans), and therefore the atmospheric CO2 concentration has been constant. Since 150 years this equilibrium is disturbed by the burning of fossil fuels and man-made forest burning (red arrows). Production is now larger than removal, and this is leading to a steady increase in the concentration of CO2, an enhancement of the greenhouse effect and climate change.

The past 420,000 year and more. Bubbles of air trapped at various depths within the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland, keep a memory of the atmospheric composition and temperature back to almost one million year ago. Figure 2.5 shows a record back to 420,000 years ago. It show us that that the climate on Earth has been oscillating roughly every 100,000 years between so-called ice ages, during which the global mean temperature has been about 5 degrees lower than present, and so-called inter-glacials, during which the global mean temperature was about equal to that of today. These transitions are triggered by predictable changes in the position of the Earths axis with respect to the sun, followed by mechanisms within the Earth system which are able to amplify the initial changes. The carbon cycle with its positive feed-backs play an important role in this amplification processes.

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Figure 2.5Antarctic temperature change and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2) over the last 420,000 years., derived from and 3.6 km long ice core drilled in the Antarctic ice sheet. Nowadays, such measurements go back to 650.000 years. They show that the temperature varied between ice ages and inter-glacials. The last 10,000 years, i.e. the present inter-glacial (right end of the graph) is very stable. The CO2 concentration measured today (370 ppm) and that projected in the next 100 years are completely out of the regular pattern measured during the past 650.000 years. (based on Petit et al., Nature, 1999)

The oscillations in global mean temperature between ice ages and inter-glacials do correspond with changes in the carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide concentration in the atmosphere, consistent with the greenhouse effect.

The past 10,000 years up till 150 years ago. The Earth is presently in an inter-glacial period which started about 10,000 years ago. We know from a range of observations, including ice-cores, tree rings, etc, that the concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols and the global mean temperature have been relatively stable. A balance between incoming and outgoing radiation was roughly established. Figure 2.6 shows several reconstructions of the Northern Hemisphere mean temperature of the past 1,300 years showing that it stayed indeed within a range of only 0.5 degrees. Variability within that range is explained by changes in the output of the Sun, volcanic eruptions emitting large amounts of dust particles in the atmosphere, and natural variations in the exchanges of carbon dioxide between atmosphere, oceans and biosphere. A comparable stable climate period was recently discovered to exist about 600.000 years ago, and shows that periods with a relatively constant temperature have been rather rare at least in the last million year. It is likely that the recent stable climate has triggered the development of agriculture and consequently the building of permanent settlements and civilization.

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Figure 2.6Several reconstructions of the Northern Hemispheric mean temperature, based on a range of observations (e.g. ice-cores, lake sediments, tree-rings, etc.). Taken together, these reconstructions show the existence of a Medieval Warm Period and a little ice age in the 17 th

centuries. Since the middle of the 18th century a measured temperature record exists (black curve) which shows the exceptional warming during the past 150 years. (WikipediA, based on 10 peer reviewed reconstructions)

The past 150 years. Figure 6 also shows the exceptional increase in Northern Hemispheric mean temperature during the past 150 years and in particular during the past 50 years. Figure 2.7 shows this increase for the global mean temperature in greater detail, together with the expected and observed sea level rise and change in snow cover.

It is now widely accepted within the scientific community that these changes are triggered mainly by man rather than by nature; there are insufficient natural changes which can explain them. This has lead scientists to define a new geological epoch: the Anthropocene (Crutzen et al. IGBP). Man has significantly changed the composition of the atmosphere since the industrial and agricultural revolutions. The burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, the raising of cattle and the use of synthetic fertilizers have resulted in the emissions into the atmosphere of both (warming) greenhouse gases and (cooling) aerosol particles, but with a clear net effect of warming.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in its 4th assessment report, (2007, IPCC AR4) concludes that: “(there is) a very high confidence that the globally net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming”

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Figure 2.7Observed changes in (a) global average surface temperature, (b) global average sea level and (c) Northern Hemispheric snow cover for March-April. All changes are relative to the period 1961-1990. (IPCC 4AR)

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3. Observed impacts: a cascade of effects with feed-backs

The change in the composition of the atmosphere and the resulting increase of the global temperature are just two steps in a cascade of impacts caused by human activities. Some selected aspects of the whole cascade is shown in Figure 3.2.

At the top of the cascade stands the use of fossil fuels for energy production and the raising of cattle and the use of fertilizers for food production as the main sources of greenhouse gases and aerosols. The availability of cheap fossil fuels and the mass production of food has led to a higher quality of life, improved health, better infrastructures etc. (red arrows to the right). However it has become apparent that the way we produce energy and food has many collateral effects that now threaten that very quality of life.

The existence of such a cascade could to some extent be foreseen based on our knowledge of the underlying physical, chemical and biological processes. The linkages between the various impacts, i.e. the consistency that Figure 3.2 implies, is now increasingly confirmed by the observations such as the one presented in the present report. 119 physical and 28115 biological impacts observed in Europe, respectively 94% and 89% are consistent with a warming trend according to the IPCC (see Figure 3.1).

Figure 3.1Surface air temperature changes in Europe during the period 1970 – 2004, together with the locations of significant changes in physical and biological systems. Most of these changes are consistent with the observed warming (IPCC 2007).

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Figure 3.2 also shows the existence of positive and negative feedback loops, as already discussed in the previous chapter. Positive feedbacks are worrisome. For instance, an increase in temperature will at one point in time start the melting of soils which used to be permanently frozen. e.g. in Siberia or Northern Canada. When this will happen, methane, which is trapped in these soils, will be released and cause even more warming. Another example is that the increase in temperature will melt ice and snow fields. This will reduce the reflectiveness of the Earths surface, increase the absorption of incoming solar light, which will lead to even more warming. These positive feedbacks would make control of climate extremely difficult. It is important to note that some of these impacts, e.g. the melting of the Arctic sea ice, are occurring earlier than was foreseen 10 years ago. Several related indicators are discussed in Chapter 5 of this report.

We need to avoid the unmanageable - through the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions - and manage the avoidable - through adaptation measures (Scientific Expert Group on Climate Change, 2007). How much we have to do of each, depends on how much warmer we will allow the Earth to become. A much warmer world will result from little reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, but will require a lot of adaptation. How much warmer we allow the world to become is eventually a decision based on a risk assessment, which much necessarily be based on observations on the impacts of global warming (see following chapter). More information is now available about the nature and magnitude of climate change impacts than at the time of the 3rd IPCC assessment in 2001 and the previous EEA report on climate change impacts in Europe in 2004. As a consequence, the future risk can be assessed more systematically for different levels of increased global annual average temperature. The present report delves deeper in climate change impacts expected in Europe, and goes further than what has been possible for the 4th IPCC assessment of 2007. E.g. it clearly shows that climate change impacts are different for different European regions (such as northern/Artic Europe, western/Atlantic Europe, central and eastern Europe, southern and south-eastern Europe) and for different sectors (water, health, agriculture and fisheries, nature and biodiversity, human settlements and infrastructure, etc.)

Human civilization can be seen as a process within the Earth System. Man can make deliberate decisions about the course of its own future.It is still not clear whether, overall, these decisions imply a positive or a negative feedback in the climate system. Successful international negotiations that would avoid a dangerous interference with the climate system would obviously be a negative, controlling feed-back. In other words, it would turn the grey arrow to left in Fig. 3.2. blue.

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Figure 3.2.Selected relationships between some of the impacts discussed in this report. The availability of cheap fossil fuels and the mass production of food has directly led to a higher quality of life; improved health, better infrastructures etc. (red arrows to the right). However it has become apparent that the very quality of life is now threatened by collateral effects of fossil fuel use (blue arrows arriving in the lower box).

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4. Climate change impacts: what the future has in store

4.1 Risks of climate change and the EU’s long-term goal

More and earlier impacts of climate change have been observed in Europe and elsewhere than was foreseen 10 years ago. An arguable advantage of this is that this knowledge also helps to understand future risks better. Most observed changes in the world are from the extensive European research programmes, notably biological studies (Figure 4.1). 89% of the many biological studies are consistent with warming, whereas 94% of the observed physical changes in Europe are consistent with warming. More information is now available about the nature and magnitude of climate change risks than at the time of the 3rd IPCC assessment in 2001 and the previous EEA report on climate change impacts in Europe in 2004. As a consequence, the risk can be assessed more systematically for different levels of increased global annual average temperatures (IPCC, 2007b).

Water, ecosystems, food, coastal areas and health are among the key vulnerable sectors (see Figure 4.2 for an overview of potential impacts as a function of temperature). The kind of dominant risks is different in different regions (see Figure 4.3). From a global perspective, the most vulnerable regions are in the developing world, which has the lowest capacity to adapt. Impacts in those regions are likely to have spill-over effects for Europe as well, through the interlinkages of economic systems and through migration. These effects have not been quantified and are not further discussed in this report.

The dominant risks of climate change are also different for different European regions (such as northern/Artic Europe, western/Atlantic Europe, central and eastern Europe, southern and south-eastern Europe) and for different vulnerable sectors (water, health, agriculture and fisheries, nature and biodiversity, human settlements and infrastructure, etc.). In the main body of this report, these impacts are presented in detail, both in terms of observed impacts as well as in terms of future risks, to the extent possible.

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Figure 4.1: Locations of significant changes in data series of physical systems (snow, ice and frozen ground; hydrology; and coastal processes) and biological systems (terrestrial, marine, and freshwater biological systems), are shown together with surface air temperature changes over the period 1970-2004. A subset of about 29,000 data series was selected from about 80,000 data series from 577 studies. These met the following criteria: (1) ending in 1990or later; (2) spanning a period of at least 20 years; and (3) showing a significant change in either direction, as assessed in individual studies. These data series are from about 75 studies (of which about 70 are new since the TAR) and contain about 29,000 data series, of which about 28,000 are from European studies. White areas do not contain sufficient observational climate data to estimate a temperature trend. The 2 x 2 boxes show the total number of dataseries with significant changes (top row) and the percentage of those consistent with warming (bottom row) for (i) continental regions: North America (NAM), Latin America (LA), Europe (EUR), Africa (AFR), Asia (AS), Australia and New Zealand (ANZ), and Polar Regions (PR) and (ii) global-scale: Terrestrial (TER), Marine and Freshwater (MFW), and Global (GLO). The numbers of studies from the seven regional boxes do not add up to the global (GLO) totals because numbers from regions except Polar do not include the numbers related to Marine and Freshwater (MFW) systems. Locations of large area marine changes are not shown on the map. Source: IPCC, 2007b

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Figure 4.2: Examples of global impacts in various sectors associated with different levels of climate change. Boxes indicate the range of temperature levels to which the impact relates. Arrows indicate increasing impacts with increasing warming. Adaptation to climate change is not considered in this overview. The black dashed line indicates the EU objective 2°C temperature change relative to pre-industrial. Adopted from the Technical Summary of IPCC (2007b).

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Figure 4.3: Examples of global impacts in various world regions associated with different levels of climate change. Boxes indicate the range of temperature levels to which the impact relates. Arrows indicate increasing impacts with increasing warming. Adaptation to climate change is not considered in this overview. The black dashed line indicates the EU objective of 2°C temperature change relative to pre-industrial. Adopted from the Technical Summary of IPCC WGII (2007b).

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4.2 Climate change risks: probing the future

How are climate risks expected to develop over time? Both worldwide and for Europe, since 2000 quantitative assessment of climate change impacts, both are mostly based on the range of Special Report on Scenarios (SRES) scenarios A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 (see Box 4.1). The SRES scenarios describe different ways in which the world could develop without explicit climate policy.

Box 4.1 The Emissions Scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)A1. The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B) (where balanced is defined as not relying too heavily on one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy supply and end use technologies).A2. The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in continuously increasing population. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change more fragmented and slower than other storylines.B1. The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global population, that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid change in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives.B2. The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population, at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also oriented towards environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels. An illustrative scenario was chosen for each of the six scenario groups A1B, A1FI, A1T, A2, B1 and B2. All should be considered equally sound. The SRES scenarios do not include additional climate initiatives, which means that no scenarios are included that explicitly assume implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change or the emissions targets of the Kyoto Protocol.

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Source: quoted from IPCC, 2001

Many (European) research studies have assessed the impacts of these scenarios for Europe (see Box 4.2). Results of many of these studies are included in the main body of this report. Many of the projects are ongoing, but for a number of projects intermediate results could be tapped for this report. While several impacts in Europe can be considered potentially positive for lower levels of climate change (agricultural production in temperate zones, increased water availability in some water basins, navigation in polar regions), most impacts on the longer term, for higher levels of climate change, are negative. In other words, there may be some winners on the short term in some regions, but these are paralleled by losers in other regions (e.g. a shift in tourism, agriculture). And on the longer term negative impacts dominate in most regions.

Box 4.2 European climate change impacts and adaptation research

Various research projects of the European Commission focus on climate change impacts in Europe or on providing the basis for assessing them. Fewer projects as yet address adaptation issues. The projects aim at contributing to better understand Earth system functioning, the origin and impacts of climate change and to predict its future evolution, to guide and support to EU’s international commitments and EU policies, and to provide a basis for effective mitigation and adaptation measures. Most FP6 projects have not yet been finalized, but some intermediate results could be used for this report. The following are the most important ones:

*ATEAM (Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling). ATEAM’s primary objective was to assess the vulnerability of human sectors relying on ecosystem services with respect to global change. We consider vulnerability to be a function of potential impacts and adaptive capacity to global change. Multiple, internally consistent scenarios of potential impacts and vulnerabilities of the sectors agriculture, forestry, carbon storage, water, nature conservation and mountain tourism in the 21st century were mapped for Europe at a regional scale for four time slices (1990, 2020, 2050, 2080).

* PRUDENCE ('Prediction of regional scenarios and uncertainties for defining European climate change risks and effects'). Prudence used several regional models to assess climate change at spatial scales between 30-50 kilometres. The project developed scenarios for the variability of climate change with level of confidence for the period 2071-2100, providing a quantitative basis for assessing the risks arising from changes in regional weather and climate in different parts of Europe. Future changes in extreme events such as drought, flooding and wind storms were estimated and a robust estimation of the likelihood and magnitude of such changes provided. FP5

* ACCELERATES (Assessing Climate Change Effects on Land use and Ecosystems; from Regional Analysis to The European Scale). This project has constructed regional and European-wide geo-referenced databases, developed models that represent biophysical and socio-economic processes of agroecosystems at the European scale and advanced methodologies at fine spatial and temporal resolutions.

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In the project, adaptive responses to climate change of agroecosystems were analysed, using the integrated models.FP5

* ENSEMBLES (Ensemble-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts). This project aims to develop an ensemble prediction system for climate change based on the principal state-of-the-art, high resolution, global and regional Earth System models developed in Europe, validated against quality controlled, high resolution gridded datasets for Europe. Eventually, the outputs of the ensemble prediction system are intended to be used for a range of impacts analyses, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance and weather risk management. FP6

* CIRCE (Climate Change and Impacts Research: the Mediterranean Environment). The project will predict and quantify physical impacts of climate change and evaluate the consequences of climate change for the society and the economy of the populations located in the Mediterranean area. Adaptation and mitigation strategies will be identified in collaboration with regional stakeholders.FP6

* ADAM (Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies: supporting European climate policy).The project will lead to a better understanding of the synergies, trade-offs and conflicts that exist between adaptation and mitigation policies at multiple scales. ADAM will support EU policy development in the next stage of the development of the Kyoto Protocol, in particular negotiations around a post-2012 global climate policy regime, and will inform the emergence of new adaptation strategies for Europe.FP6

* PESETA (Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on boTtom-up Analysis). PESETA aims to make a multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change in Europe for the 2011-2040 and 2071-2100 time horizons, focusing on the impacts of climate change on the following sectors: Coastal systems, Energy demand, Human health, Agriculture, Tourism, and Floods. The emphasis is on the economic costs of climate change in Europe based on physical impact assessment and state-of-art high-resolution climate scenarios. FP6

A special kind of risk, which is particularly difficult to deal with from a policy point of view, are impacts with a low likelihood of occurrence in the coming decades, but with potentially very large consequences on the longer term (see Box 4.3 for examples that may be of particular relevance for Europe.). Many impacts build up slowly. However, there may be so-called “tipping points” beyond which large and fast changes in the behaviour of natural or societal systems can occur. Some of these non-linear changes are related to positive feedbacks in the climate system and can accelerate change.

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Box 4.3 What are the risks of non-linear climate change?

The risk of large-scale discontinuities has been identified by IPCC as one of five “reasons for concern” and deserves some special attention, because of their potentially very large consequences for the world, including Europe. What is non-linear, or abrupt change? If a system has more than one equilibrium state, transitions to structurally different states are possible. If and when a so-called “tipping point” would be crossed, the development of the system is no longer controlled by the time scale of the forcing, but rather determined by its internal dynamics, which can either be much faster than the forcing, or significantly slower (IPCC, 2007a). A variety of different tipping points has been identified. Below we discuss a few with potentially large consequences for Europe.

The IPCC TAR suggested that a rapid warming of over 3ºC could trigger such large-scale discontinuities in the climate system, such as changes in climate variability (e.g., ENSO changes), breakdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC, or equivalently, meridional overturning circulation, MOC), deglaciation of the West-Antarctic Icesheet (WAIS) and Greenland, climate biosphere-carbon cycle feedbacks, and enhanced emissions of methane from melting permafrost or hydrates. However, there was only low to medium confidence in this statement because of the complexity of the interactions involved over long time scales. New research assessed in the AR4 has enhanced the confidence in the projected consequences of partial or near complete deglaciation of Greenland and West Antarctica, with medium confidence that already as much as 1-2ºC sustained global warming versus present climate (thus 2-3 ºC versus pre-industrial) is a threshold beyond which there will be a commitment to a large sea-level contribution due to at least partial deglaciation of both ice sheets (IPCC, 2007a,b). What would happen if these ice sheets would practically all disintegrate? According to IPCC (IPCC, 2007b), sea level would rise on average by 7m and about 5m from Greenland and WAIS, respectively. This would basically alter the world’s coast lines completely, in the course of the coming centuries. Because of ocean circulation patterns, density and gravitational factors, the sea level rise will not be evenly distributed over the globe.

There is less confidence in what may happen with the MOC. A slow down of the North Atlantic ocean circulation may on the one hand counteract the global warming trends in Europe, but on the other hand may have unexpected serious consequences for the behaviour of the world’s climate system and exacerbated impacts elsewhere. Other examples of possible non-linear effects are the progressive emission of methane from permafrost melting and destabilization of hydrates, and rapid climate-driven transitions from one ecosystem type to another (IPCC, 2007b). The understanding of these processes is yet limited and the chance of major implications in the current century is generally considered to be low.

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4.3 Can damage be avoided?

Thus climate impacts have already been observed, and future risks for serious damages are being mapped out by the scientific community. The question is whether at least some of these damages can be forestalled. To limit impacts and guide policy development, the EU has adopted a long-term climate goal of 2oC global mean temperature increase as compared to pre-industrial levels. This goal will limit risks, but not avoid all impacts (see Figures 4.1 and 4.2). However, at the same time, the Figures also show that if temperatures are limited to the EU goal, many increasingly serious impacts can be avoided. It should be noted that most of the studies underlying the graphs do not take adaptation explicitly into account, and adaptation could further reduce risks and economic costs. However, it should also be noted that there are limits to adaptation, dependent on the type, magnitude and rate of change. Furthermore, the Figures end by 2100, but climatic changes and their impacts do not stop by that time. Because of delays in the climate system, emissions now and during the rest of this century will have persisting effects in centuries to come. These considerations illustrate, among others, the deeply ethical dimension of the climate problem in terms of impacts over the current and future generations. In addition to ethical questions, also economic considerations play a role. The costs of inaction as well as the costs of action are very uncertain. Limits on quantification and valuation play a key role. Economic effects of climate change for Europe are uncertain, but potentially very significant (EEA, 2007). What is considered “dangerous interference with the climate system” is therefore a political issue rather than a scientific one. The EU goal has initially been established more than 10 years ago, when it was used to support the Kyoto Protocol negotiations. Are the arguments of that time still valid today? The answer is yes, as is further elaborated in Box 4.4.

Box 4.4 Limiting global temperature-rise to 2°C above pre-industrial level

The EU global temperature limit of 2C above the pre-industrial level was first established in 1996 before the Kyoto negotiations, and reaffirmed subsequently by the Environment Council (2003) and the European Council (2005 and 2007). It was deduced from the evidence available at the time and from the concern that adaptation rates of ecosystems are limited. Since 1996, the understanding of the vulnerability to and impacts of climate change has improved significantly. According to the AR4, some impacts are now projected to be stronger and occur at lower temperatures than assessed in the TAR. For some cases the increase in impacts will be relatively smooth. For other impacts, such as heat wave mortality, coral reef losses and thawing of permafrost, a critical temperature limit, or threshold may be identified. The expected climate changes and impacts vary regionally, making some thresholds regional rather than global. Both kind of impacts should be taken into consideration when evaluating the EU’s climate goal.

In some cases, exceedance of temperature thresholds could trigger climate feedbacks that strongly accelerate climate change, initiate irreversible changes to the climate system, or result in sudden and rapid exacerbation of certain impacts, requiring unachievable rates of adaptation. The temperature changes at which these thresholds would be exceeded are not yet clearly understood. At a temperature rise above 2C relative to pre-industrial levels, there is an increase in the risk of a range of severe large scale events, such as shutdown of the thermohaline circulation, but some thresholds may be passed at global average temperature changes below 2C, such as the melting of the Greenland Ice sheet, which could be initiated at a global temperature rise between 1-2ºC and could be irreversible if the temperature rise is

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sustained for a sufficient length of time. This would mean a global sea-level rise of 7 metres during the next 1,000 years or longer.

Also in Europe, the magnitude of impacts on human health, the water sector, ecosystems, coastal zones, mountain regions and the economy is expected to increase as global temperatures rise. A global mean temperature increase below 2°C above pre-industrial levels is likely to allow adaptation to climate change for many human systems at moderate economic, social and environmental costs. The ability of many natural ecosystems to adapt to rapid climate change is limited and may be exceeded well before before 2°C is reached. Beyond 2°C major increases in vulnerability, considerable impacts, very costly adaptation needs, an unacceptably high and increasing risk of large scale irreversible effects, and substantially increase the uncertainty of impacts are expected.

Further research is needed to better quantify risks in the context of Article 2. However, for the present the 2C limit remains a reasonable level beyond which the risk of severe impacts would increase markedly, recognising that it will not avoid all impacts. The original EU stabilisation target related a 2C goal to stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations (i.e. not all Kyoto gases) below 550ppm. More recent work indicates that a 2oC limit is more likely to be consistent with stabilisation levels below 450ppm CO2eq (including all Kyoto gases). There is a considerable uncertainty in the relationship between stabilisation levels and temperature, due to both climate sensitivity and assumptions with respect to the non-CO2 gases as well as aerosols and their reduction potential. Preliminary estimates suggest that to meet the EU temperature limit global GHG emissions will have to peak within the next 10 to 15 years, followed by substantial global emission reductions to at least 50% below 1990 levels by 2050 with emissions of non-CO2 GHG to be reduced by more than 80%.

To achieve those deep emissions reductions, a broad portfolio of technologies currently available or expected to be commercialized in the next decades need to be deployed urgently at high rates and at a large scale. Lock-in of carbon-intensive technologies needs to be avoided, requiring a large shift in investment patterns. Mitigation costs are likely to rise more quickly and delay economic growth more for lower stabilisation levels,. Cost estimates are very uncertain, and many possibly over-estimated as factors like technological learning and non-CO2 options are not taken into account. Estimates of the benefits of mitigation are still very uncertain and tend to be underestimated. Allowing or not allowing “overshooting” the goal temporarily has important implications for costs and feasibility.

Main sources: IPCC AR4 (2007), EU (2007, 2oC note for Portuguese chairmanship)

One way of looking at the rationale of different climate change response strategies is by comparing mitigation efforts with adaptation actions. Mitigation is aiming particularly at avoiding the serious impacts associated with continuing, longer-term changes in the climate system as well as limiting the risks of large-scale discontinuities in that system. Adaptation is aiming particularly at reducing unavoidable negative impacts already at the shorter term, reducing the vulnerability to present climate variability, and catching opportunities provided by climate change.

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4.4 What is needed to meet the EU objective?

Current knowledge suggests that in order to have a 50 % chance of meeting the EU climate objective, global GHG concentrations would have to be stabilized at 450 ppm CO2 eq.(of which about 400 ppm CO2, see also den Elzen and Meinshausen, 2005, van Vuuren et al., 2006, and Figure 4.4). The specific emissions profiles that are consistent with the EU climate goal are dependent on assumptions that include the climate sensitivity and the possible acceptance of a temporary peaking above the objective. The achievement of a 450 ppm stabilization goal is generally considered to be extremely ambitious, but feasible from a technical and macro-economic perspective (IPCC, 2007c). Costs for some sectors and regions could be high, and political, social and behavioural hurdles would have to be dealt with to allow for a world-wide, effective mitigation response. The Bali Action Plan (UNFCCC, 2007) and the “20 20 by 2020” climate package of the European Union (20 % reduction of GHG emissions and a 20 % renewable energy share in total energy consumption by 2020, see EC, 2008) are encouraging signs that international action is mobilized to stave off long-term climate change impacts. The need and options to adapt to the remaining impacts is discussed in Chapter 5.

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Figure 4.4: The probabilistic transient temperature implications for the stabilization pathways at 450, 550 and 650 ppm CO2-eq. concentration (upper row) and the pathways that peak at 510 ppm, 550 ppm and 650 ppm (lower row). The FAIR-SiMCaP pathways shown are those for the B2 baseline scenario based on a climate sensitivity that assumes the 1.5–4.5°C uncertainty range for climate sensitivity (IPCC TAR), being a 90% confidence interval of a lognormal distribution. Shown are the median (solid lines) and 90% confidence interval boundaries (dashed lines), as well as the 1, 10, 33, 66, 90, and 99% percentiles (borders of shaded areas). The historical temperature record and its uncertainty from 1900 to 2004 is shown (blue shaded band). Source: van Vuuren et al., 2006.

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5. An Indicator based assessment

5.1 Introduction

(to be further elaborated)

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5.2 Atmosphere and climate

5.2.1 IntroductionThe climate in Europe shows considerable regional variability. This variability is related to the position of Europe in the Northern hemisphere and the influence of neighbouring seas and continents, including the Arctic. Atmospheric circulation is an important driver of the temporal and regional variances (see Box below).

This section describes the changing climatic and atmospheric conditions, while the following sections deal with impacts of these changes on physical, ecological and societal systems in Europe. The indicators included in this section are global and European temperature, precipitation, temperature extremes and precipitation extremes, storms and storm surges, and atmospheric ozone concentration. Whereas all indicators focus on Europe, global temperature has been included because the policy target of the European Council and confirmed by the European Parliament to limit global average temperature increase to a maximum of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, in order to keep climate change at a manageable level and to reduce the likelihood of irreversible disruptions. The indicators included in this section represent different characteristics of the climate system that have different effects on physical and biological systems as well as human society, which can be independent of each other or, more often, have combined effects. High temperature and reduced precipitation, for example, may lead to more intense droughts. Droughts are addressed in section 5.2.2 (i.e. Precipitation extremes in Europe), including an enumeration of different definitions of drought that have different consequences of sectors involved. Temperature and precipitation extremes are both included here, because they have the largest impacts on society and the environment. Storms are dangerous too. Coastal areas are more vulnerable, damages caused by storms may be aggravated with storm surges flooding. The surface ozone concentration can increase due to temperature increase and chemical reactions of air pollutants emitted by human activities in the lower atmosphere. Higher ozone concentrations have adverse effect on population and environment particularly in large cities where global warming is amplified by urban heat islands.

Data availability and accuracy has been one of the important criteria for the selection of indicators. In general, the data availability of the climate indicators is good compared to other indicators, although especially on the regional scale reliable data can be more scarce. Data of the air temperature are the most reliable climatological data, whereas precipitation and wind data are more variable. Their projections are more uncertain than for temperature and dependent on future, still uncertain circulation patterns. Climate models underestimate circulation changes, which is one of the reasons of the low accuracy in regional climate projections (Gillet et al., 2003).

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Box 5.2.1 Atmospheric circulation patterns in Europe

The atmospheric circulation moves air masses with their own typical characteristics like temperature and humidity over long distances. The prevailing western circulation at mid latitudes directing the oceanic air masses inland the continent is very important for the European climate. Stronger western advection brings milder and wetter weather and stronger winds to most of the Europe, especially in winter. Weaker western circulation causes generally colder and dryer winters and hotter and dryer summers. The changes in behaviour of this circulation pattern are one of the main sources of the European climate variability. The intensity of western circulation in the European region is expressed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. NAO is the large-scale fluctuation in atmospheric pressure in the Atlantic ocean between the high-pressure system near the Azores and the low pressure system near Iceland (Fig. 5.2.1.1).

Figure 5.2.1.1. Mean winter (December–March) NAO index . Positive indicates stronger western flow. (Updated from Hurrell et al. (2003)).

The NAO oscillation has seasonal, inter-annual and interdecadal variations. The short-term dynamics have driving mechanism connected with weather fluctuation, in longer time scales especially with atmosphere-ocean-ice interactions.

The seasonal anomalies have direct human impacts, often being associated with droughts, floods, heat- and cold-waves and other changes. The NAO behaviour in the past appears to have been considerably more variable, with more extreme values in the late 18th and early 19th centuries than in the 20th century. More recently, there has been a large increase in the NAO index between 1970 and 1990, followed by a decrease back to about normal. The relationship with anthropogenic climate change is as yet unclear. Scenarios for future circulation patterns are very uncertain, because of the limited predictive ability of current models.

In the southern hemisphere, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has global impacts on decadal and longer-term variability and can cause precipitation and temperature changes over very large distances, including Europe. Generally, for Europe the effects of ENSO on precipitation and temperature is much weaker than those of variations in the NAO.

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5.2.2 Global and European temperature

Key Messages Global

The global (land and ocean) average temperature increase up to 2007 was 0.76 °C compared to pre-industrial levels. For land only, the observed increase has been 0.98 oC.

The rate of global average temperature change has increased from 0.08°C per decade over last 100 years, to 0.13 °C per decade in last 50 years and 0.20°C in last decade.

The best estimates for projected global warming this century are a further rise in the global average temperature from 1.8 to 4.0°C or different scenarios that assume no further/additional action to limit emissions.

Europe

Europe has warmed up more than the global average. The increase of the annual average temperature for the European land area and combined land and ocean areas has been 1.22°C and 0.98°C, respectively, comparing the trend towards 2007 with pre-industrial times. Eight of the last 12 years from the period 1996 – 2007 were in the 12 warmest years since 1850 in Europe.

The annual average temperature is projected in Europe to rise this century 1-5.5°C (best estimate) with the greatest warming over eastern and northern Europe in winter, and over south-western and Mediterranean Europe in summer.

Figure 5.2.2.1 Observed global (left) and European1 (right) annual average temperature deviations, 1850-2007, relative to the 1850-1899 average (in oC). The lines refer to 10-year moving average, the bars to the annual 'land only' annual average temperature (source Haylock et al, 2008, Land only data are based on HadCRUT3 data, land & ocean data based on CRUTEMP3 data; European data obtained with climexp.knmi.nl)

1 Europe is defined as the area between 35 o to 70o Northern latitude, -25 o to 30 o Eastern longitude, plus Turkey (=35 o to 40 o North, 30 o to 45 o East)

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RelevanceOf all parameters used in monitoring and projecting climate change, air temperature is the closest to the human perception of “climate”. Fortunately, air temperature data are also the most reliable climate data. There is a sufficiently dense network stations in the world -including Europe- with standardised measurements and with sophisticated quality control systems and homogeneity procedures. This allows for high resolution temperature information with a high level of significance. Daily and monthly data are available in long time series (standardised data from 1850 onwards). Furthermore, climate models have become increasingly sophisticated over the past years with the uncertainty in the longer-term temperature projections being especially related to future emissions of greenhouse gases rather than to uncertainties in the climate system. Temperature changes affect practically all indicators included in this report, directly or indirectly. The projected further temperature rise may have some positive impacts in the northern part of Europe (at least for a certain period), but the impacts in most parts of Europe are and will be adverse. In relation to climate change policy, the global temperature rise is relevant because of the EU objective of limiting global average temperature increase to a maximum of 2 °C, as described in section 5.1. Monitoring temperature change is thus also relevant for comparing actual developments with this EU’s long-term goal. Some other studies have proposed an additional ‘sustainable’ target of limiting the rate of temperature change, ranging from 0.1oC to 0.2oC per decade, based on the limited capability of ecosystems to adapt (Rijsberman and Swart, 1990, WBGU, 2003, Van Vliet and Leemans, 2006). Within limits and at a cost, for many of the consequences of temperature changes adaptation options are available. These will be mentioned in the sections for the individual indicators. Furthermore, it is important to notice that land warms faster then the oceans, due to the heat balance (water absorbs heat).

Past trendsThe IPCC (2007) has very high confidence that global warming is accelerating verylikely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC, 2007). The increase in global average temperature (land and ocean) up to 2007 has been 0.76 °C, compared to pre-industrial (defined as 1850-1899 average, IPCC, 2007). There is also very high confidence that the observed increase over land only has been 0.98 °C. Eleven of the last 12 years (1996 -2007) rank among the 12 warmest years (the exception being 1996). 2005 and 1998 were the warmest two years on record (see Figure 5.2.21). The rate of change in the global average temperature has accelerated from 0.08 °C per decade over the last 100 years, to 0.13 °C per decade over the past 50 years and up to 0.20°C per decade over the last 10 years (all values represent land & ocean area) (IPCC, 2007). Europe has warmed slightly more than the global average (high confidence). The increase of the annual average temperature for the European land area and combined land and ocean area has been 1.22°C and 0.98°C, respectively, comparing the trend towards 2007 with pre-industrial times. Geographically, particularly significant warming has been observed in the past 50 years (Figure 5.2.2.2) over the Iberian Peninsula, and central & north-eastern Europe and in mountainous regions (Böhm et al., 2001; Klein Tank, 2004) (high confidence). The warming in the period 1979 – 2005 was strongest over northern Europe in winter. Europe as a whole warmed up especially in spring and summer. Remarkably, autumn saw almost no warming.

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ProjectionsThe global average temperature is projected to continue to increase with high confidence. The projected increase this century is in a range between 1.8 to 4.0°C, and is considered likely between 1.1 – 6.4°C for the six IPCC SRES scenarios (see Chapter 4), comparing the 2080-2100 average with the 1980-1999 average. Note that these scenarios do not assume that additional policies are implemented to limit greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC 2007). The range is caused by the uncertainties in future socio-economic development and in climate models. The EU ‘sustainable’ target of limiting global average warming to not more than 2.0°C above pre-industrial level likely to be exceeded between 2040 and 2060, for the IPCC scenarios.

The annual average temperature for Europe is projected to increase by 1.0 - 5.5°C (comparing 2080-2100 with the 1961-1990 average). This range takes into account the uncertainties in future socio-economic development by including two of the IPCC-SRES scenarios (the high emissions A2 and the medium emissions A1b) and in climate models (IPCC, 2007b; Christensen & Christensen, 2007). The warming is projected to be greatest over eastern Europe, Scandinavia and the arctic in winter (December to February), and over south-western and Mediterranean Europe in summer (June to August) (Giorgi et al., 2004; Christensen & Christensen, 2007). The temperature rise in parts of France and the Iberian Peninsula may exceed 6°C, whereas the Arctic could become on average 6°C and possibly 8°C warmer than the 1961-1990 average (IPCC, 2007a,b, ACIA 2004, 2007).

Figure 5.2.2.2 Observed temperature change over Europe during the last 50 years. Left: Annual, mid: Winter; right: summer, unit: oC/decade, (Source: http://eca.knmi.nl/download/)

Figure 5.2.2.3. Modelled change in mean annual, summer (JJA) and winter (DJF) temperature over Europe from the period between 1980-1999 and 2080-2099, averaged over 21 models for the IPCC-SRES A1B scenario (Source: IPCC, 2007a).

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5.2.3 European precipitation

Key Messages • Annual precipitation trends in the 20th century showed an increase in northern

Europe (10 – 40%) and a decrease in some parts of southern Europe (up to 20%).• Mean winter precipitation has increased in most of the Atlantic- and northern

Europe (20 – 40%).• Models project an increase in winter precipitation in northern Europe and a decrease

in summer precipitation in southern Europe. But there are uncertainties on the magnitude and geographical details of precipitation change.

Figure 5.2.3.1. Trend of annual precipitation for 1946 to 2006 (mm per decade); blue colour mean increase, green means no change, yellow decrease trend (Source KNMI, CRU 2007) (to be adapted in grid form and graphs with precipitation trends in Northern Europe and Mediterranean)

RelevancePrecipitation is a major component of the hydrological cycle. Most of precipitation over Europe is connected with advection of maritime air masses from the Atlantic and Mediterranean. The amount and spatial distribution of European precipitation is strongly influenced by circulation patterns (see Box in 5.2.1). Combination of the changes in precipitation regime and increases in air temperature can lead to extreme hydrological evens such a flooding and droughts (see e.g. Section 5.2.5, 5.6.4 and 5.7.3). Some systems or sectors, connected closely with the hydrological cycle, are very sensitive to the combined effects of higher temperatures and changed precipitation characteristics. Within limits and at a cost, adaptation to many of the impacts is possible. These options will be briefly mentioned in the individual indicator sections.

Homogenous time series of monthly precipitation data and interpolation and gridding methods enable the analysis of various periods from 1901 at various temporal and spatial scales. However, differences between climate models for future precipitation

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projections indicate higher uncertainty in regional and seasonal results than for temperature projections and observed precipitation trends.

Past trendsPrecipitation in Europe has generally increased over the 20th century (high confidence). The European average increase has been 6 - 8% between 1901 and 2005. Geographically, in NW European regions the increase was generally significantly higher. This is partly due to stronger advection of wet Atlantic air masses to this part of the continent. Drying has been observed in the Mediterranean and eastern Europe. In western Europe no clear trends have been observed (Norrant and Douguédroit, 2006). Similar results were found for the period 1946 – 2006 (see Figure 5.2.3.1).

Mean winter (December-February) precipitation is increasing in most of Atlantic- and northern Europe (Klein Tank et al., 2002) (high confidence), because western circulation was stronger in the cold part of the year. Conversely, southern Europe and parts of central Europe were characterized by a drier winter. Trends in spring and autumn were not significant.

ProjectionsClimate models project changes in precipitation that vary considerably from season to season and across regions. Geographically, projections indicate a general precipitation increase in northern Europe and a decrease in southern Europe . The annual area-mean change from 1961-1990 to 2071-2100 for the high emissions IPCC SRES A2 projections varies from 0 to 20% in northern Europe and from –5% to –40% in southern Europe and Mediterranean (Figure 5.2.3.2). Many impact studies (see other indicators) use this scenario. Under the intermediate emissions IPCC SRES A1B scenario the projected changes are smaller.

Seasonally, models project a large-scale increase in winter precipitation in mid and northern Europe. Many parts of Europe are projected to experience dryer summers (Figure 5.2.3.2). Relatively small precipitation changes were found for spring and autumn (Räisänen et al., 2004; Kjellström, 2004). Figure 5.2.3.2. Modelled change in precipitation over Europe from period 1961-1990 to 2071-2100 and seasonal changes for summer (JJA) and winter (DJF) seasons. (Source: Dankers and R. Hiederer , 2008, using the HIRHAM4 regional climate model with boundary conditions of the HadCM3 model and the IPCC-SRES A2 GHG emission scenario)

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5.2.4 Temperature extremes in Europe

Key Messages• Cold extremes have become less frequent in Europe, while the frequency of hot

days has almost tripled between 1880 and 2005 and the number of warm extremes doubled.

• For Europe as a whole heat waves and droughts are projected to increase in frequency, intensity and duration, whereas winter temperature variability and the number of cold and frost extremes will further decrease. European regions projected to be most affected are the Iberian Peninsula, central Europe including the Alps, the eastern Adriatic seaboard, and southern Greece.

Figure 5.2.4.1: Observed changes in duration of warm spells in summer (left) and frequency of frost days (right), in the period 1976-2006 (in days per decade)Source: eca.knmi.nl and Haylock et al., 2008; data available from http://ecad.knmi.nl/download/ensembles/download.php

Figure 5.2.4.2: Modelled number of tropical nights (minimum temperature >20º C)

over Europe from control period (1961-1990) and scenario period (2071-2100) during summer seasons (JJA) and change between periods (right panel). Data source: PRUDENCE, Dankers and R. Hiederer , 2008, using the HIRHAM4 regional climate model with boundary conditions of the HadCM3 model and the IPCC-SRES A2 GHG emission scenario)

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RelevanceIn the public eye, climate change may manifest itself most clearly through changes in the frequency of weather extremes and their impacts. Extreme temperature events may lead to heat waves and intensive and long-lasting droughts, having, in turn, numerous impacts on the environment (like natural ecosystems) and society (e.g. agriculture, public health).The time series for studying extremes are based on daily data. These data are more variable than mean monthly data. However, there are more than 50-years European time series data available on temperature and precipitation, which allow for detailed assessment of extreme events. Within limits and at a cost, for many of the consequences of temperature extremes adaptation options are available. These will be mentioned in the sections for the individual indicators.

Past trendsWarm extremes like hot days, tropical nights, and heat waves have become more frequent, while cold extremes like cold days, cold nights and frost have become less frequent (IPCC 2007, Klein Tank et al, 2007, Fig. 5.4.2.1). The length of summer heat waves over Western Europe has doubled over the period 1880 to 2005 and the frequency of hot days has almost tripled (Della-Marta et al, 2007). It is more likely than not that anthropogenic climate change has contributed to this increase (IPCC, 2007).

ProjectionsFor Europe as a whole it is very likely that extreme high temperature events across Europe, along with the overall warming, will become more frequent, intense and longer (Schär et al., 2004, Tebaldi et al., 2006, IPCC, 2007a,b; Beniston et al., 2007). Likewise, the night time temperature is projected to increase considerably (Fig. 5.2.4.2), possibly leading to additional health problems and even mortality (Halsnæs et al, 2007, Sillman and Roekner, 2008), at least partly compensated by a reduced mortality in winter (see Section 5.9.2).

Geographically, the maximum temperature during summer is projected to increase much more in Southern and Central Europe than in Northern Europe, whereas the largest reduction in cold extremes occurrence is projected for Northern Europe (Kjellström et al., 2006; Beniston et al., 2007, Sillman and Roekner, 2008). Under the A2 scenario, Central Europe, for example, is projected to experience by the end of the twenty first century the same number of hot days as are currently experienced in Spain and Sicily (Beniston et al., 2007).Also extreme cold days in winter are projected to warm more strongly than mild winter days, which indicates a decrease in winter temperature variability.

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Box: The heat waves of the summer of 2003

Much of Europe was affected by heat waves during the summer 2003 (June, July and August). Seasonal temperatures were highest on record in Germany, Switzerland, France and Spain (Fig. 5.2.4.3). It is estimated that 2003 has been the hottest summer since at least 1500 (Luterbacher et al., 2004). Average summer (June-August) temperatures were far above the long-term mean by up to 5 standard deviations, implying that this was an extremely unlikely event under current climatic conditions (Schär and Jendritzky, 2004; Chase et al, 2006). The 2003 summer may, however, become much more frequent during the second part of the 21st century (Beniston, 2007). The 2003 heat waves were associated with a certain air pressure field pattern over Europe, leading to an advection of heated air from the south which reinforced the strength and persistence of the heat wave. Nearly all radiation from the Sun was converted to heat because of the soil and vegetation dryness. At many locations, temperatures rose above 40°C. In the European Alps, the average thickness loss of glaciers reached about three metres water equivalent, nearly twice as much as during the previous record year of 1998 (WMO, 2004; see Section 5.3.2). Annual precipitation deficits up to 300 mm caused drought with consequences in reduced agricultural production (Section 5.6.2), larger fires (Portugal, Section 5.6.6), record low levels of many major rivers (e.g. Po, Rhine, Loire and Danube; Section 5.7.2). In all the affected countries together over 75 000 additional deaths were related to the 2003 heat wave (Section 5.9.2).

Figure 5.2.4.3: Summer 2003 (J,J,A) daily maximum temperature anomaly with respect to 1961–90 (based on http://eca.knmi.nl/download/).

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5.2.5 Precipitation extremes in Europe

Key Messages

• For Europe as a whole, the intensity of precipitation extremes like heavy rain events has increased in the past 50 years, even for areas with a decrease in mean precipitation such as Central Europe and the Mediterranean.

• The fraction of Europe experiencing extreme and/or moderate drought conditions has not changed significantly during the 20th century.

• For Europe as whole heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent.

• Dry periods are projected to increase especially in the different parts of Southern Europe.

Figure 5.2.5.1: Trends in precipitation fraction due to very wet days (upper 5%) between 1976 and 2006 (to be adapted in grid form)Source: eca.knmi.nl and Haylock et al., 2008; data available from http://ecad.knmi.nl/download/ensembles/download.php

RelevanceBoth high and low precipitation extremes (high intensity or long-lasting rains and droughts, respectively) can lead to periods with precipitation deficit even with a high amount of total precipitation. The periods can vary from minutes (e.g. in case of intense showers) to days or even weeks (with long-lasting rain events or absence of precipitation). Regarding precipitation deficits, low precipitation extremes can lead to drought occurrence (see Box). In the case of precipitation surplus, extremes can result in fast flash floods, sewerage system failure and land-slides, or devastating floods,

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affecting large catchments and having longer duration. As such, precipitation extremes have a series of impacts. Within limits and at a cost, for many of the consequences of temperature changes adaptation options are available. These will be mentioned in the sections for the relevant impacts indicators.Precipitation extremes can be assessed in different ways. Regarding precipitation deficits, often the number and duration of dry periods is used (e.g. expressed as the number of consecutive dry days). High precipitation events can, for example, be assessed through number of wet days, the number of consecutive wet days, and the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events (see Klein Tank et al, 2007).

The time series for studying precipitation extremes are based on daily data. These data are more variable than mean monthly data. However, there is more than 50-years European time series data available of precipitation, which allow for detailed assessment of extreme events.

Past trendsThe number of extreme precipitation events has increased over most of the European land area, linked to warming and increases of atmospheric water vapour. For Europe as a whole, the intensity of extreme precipitation has increased in the past 50 years, even for areas with a decrease in mean precipitation, such as central Europe and the Mediterranean. In particular, the contribution of extreme precipitation to the precipitation totals has increased (Figure 5.2.5.1).

The fraction of Europe that has experienced extreme and/or moderate drought conditions has not changed significantly during the 20th century (Lloyd-Hughes and Saunders, 2002). Summer droughts do not show statistically significant trends in the period 1901 – 2002 (Robock et al., 2005; van der Schrier at all, 2007).

ProjectionsFor Europe as whole it is likely that heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent (IPCC, 2007). The frequency of wet days is projected to decrease in summer, but the intensity of extreme rain showers may increase. In addition, frequency of several-day precipitation episodes is projected to increase. Geographically, there is a considerable regional differentiation in the projections (medium confidence). Extreme precipitation events are projected to decrease especially in southern Europe, whereas northern and central Europe may experience considerable increase (for the ECHAM 4 climate model, A1B scenario, 17% and 13%, respectively) (Fig. 5.2.5.2., J. Sillmann & E. Roeckner, 2008).

The combination of higher temperatures and reduced mean summer precipitation is projected to enhance the frequency and intensity of droughts across Europe. This can, for example, be illustrated by the projected number of the consecutive dry days (Fig. 5.2.5.3, for an intermediate emissions scenario IPCC SRES A1B and a low emissions scenario IPCC SRES B1). The maximum number of these days is projected to increase substantially in southern Europe during the 21st century. The longest dry period within a year is prolonged by 1 month at the end of 21st century. In central Europe, prolongation of longest dry period is by 1 week, but no trend is projected in northern Europe. As such, regions in Europe that are dry now will stay more vulnerable in the future.

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Figure 5.2.5.2: Precipitation time series (1860–2100) of European land average for maximum 5-day precipitation sum (mm) in Europe; 20th Century (black), A1B (red) and B1 (blue) model simulations. (Displayed are the respective ensemble means. The spread in the ensemble members is indicated by light (B1) and dark (A1B) shading, respectively. Data are smoothed by 10-year running means) (J.

Sillmann & E. Roeckner, 2008).

Figure 5.2.5.3: Precipitation time series (1860–2100) of European land average maximum number for consecutive dry days (g, h, i; days); 20th Century (black), A1B (red) and B1 (blue) model simulations. (Displayed are the respective ensemble means. The spread in the ensemble members is indicated by light (B1) and dark (A1B) shading, respectively. Data are smoothed by 10-year running means)* (J. Sillmann & E. Roeckner, 2008).

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Drought boxDrought is a natural phenomenon, defined as sustained and regionally extensive occurrence of below-average water availability. Drought should not be confused with aridity, which is a long-term average feature of a dry climate. Nevertheless, the most severe human consequences of drought can be found in arid regions, where water availability is naturally lower. Likewise, drought should not be confused with water scarcity, which reflects conditions of long-term imbalances between water supply and demands. Droughts can affect both high and low rainfall areas of Europe and can develop over short periods of weeks and months or much longer periods of several seasons, years and even decades. In many cases drought develops gradually, making it difficult to identify and predict. The mostly used definitions and types of the drought are:

• Meteorological drought: precipitation’s departure from normal values for an extended period of time, the primary cause of the other types of drought.

• Hydrological drought: deficiencies in surface and subsurface water supplies, reflecting effects and impacts of meteorological droughts.

• Agricultural drought: a deficit of soil moisture affecting a particular crop at a particular time.

• Socio-economic drought: imbalance between supply of and demand for an economic good, capturing both drought condition and human activities.

Precipitation is the primary factor controlling the origin and persistence of drought conditions for all types of drought. Deficiency of precipitation results in water shortage for some activity or for some group. The impacts of droughts on people and the environment arise due to a combination of the intensity and duration of drought events and the vulnerability of agricultural or water resources systems, including water management policies, the characteristics of regional and local water infrastructure and social responses to drought situations. Drought is a phenomenon that is not constrained by international boundaries and can therefore grow to afflict many countries simultaneously. Projections of the future climate indicate that in warmer conditions droughts may become longer lasting and more severe in current drought-prone regions because of enhanced evaporation.

Drought duration Weeks……………..Months……………..….Years………….………...Decades

Meteorological drought

Hydrological drought

Agricultural drought

Socio-economic drought

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5.2.6 Storms and storm surges in Europe

Key Messages

• Storminess in Europe has been relatively high during the late nineteenth and the early twentieth century; then decreased again in central Europe and northern Europe. The subsequent rise in the late 20th century was most pronounced in north-western Europe, while slow and steady in central Europe.

• The water level rise aboard most vulnerable European coastlines of the North Sea and Mediterranean Sea had not shown an increase due to trend of storminess.

• Extra-tropical storm tracks are projected to move pole wards, with consequent changes in wind, precipitation, and temperature patterns, continuing the broad pattern of observed trends over the past half-century.

• Climate models indicate a slight decrease in the number of storms and an increase of the strength of the heaviest storms.

• For the end of 21st century the projections show a significant increase of storm surge elevation for the continental North Sea and South East England.

Figure 5.2.6.1. Storm index time series for the period 1881 – 2004 for north-western, north and central Europe, positive values of the index are connected with higher storminess (from Matulla et al., 2007). (Comm. Left graph will be used only)

RelevanceStorms in Europe are extreme, near-surface damage-causing wind speeds, associated with passage of intense extra-tropical cyclones (Pinto, et al., 2007). Storms can occur in north or north-western Europe all year, whereas they occur in central Europe mainly between November and February. Storm surges are temporary increases in sea-level, above the level of the tide, causing often coastal flooding. Storm events can have in general large impacts on many vulnerable systems such as transport, forestry and energy infrastructures, but also on human safety. The storm activity for Europe and the neighbouring part of the Atlantic is closely connected with the intensity of the atmospheric circulation (North Atlantic Oscillation - NAO). But the correlation of the NAO index with storminess across Europe varies in space and time. Direct wind observation data of sufficient quality are often lacking.

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Storms intensity and frequency can indirectly be assessed by the sea level pressure field. Note that modelling the future wind conditions (and changes in it) is highly uncertain, mainly due to uncertainty in atmospheric circulation projections. Storm surges result from the combined action of atmospheric pressure and strong wind on the sea surface and mostly occur in shallow water. An increase in mean sea level will directly affect extreme levels. Changes in water depth can also influence the tidal component, modifying the extent of flooded areas. Adaptation options are available, such as improved coastal management systems and spatial planning.

Past trendsStorminess in Europe has not significantly changed over the past century. Since the mid 1960s to at least the mid-1990s, the western circulation above the Northern part of the Atlantic Ocean has become stronger and more northerly than it was before (Yin 2005), causing a strengthening of the mid-latitude westerly winds in the Northern Hemisphere (IPCC 2007). After the mid-1990s, these winds, however, have returned to the pre-1960 values. These results are in agreement with the storm-index time series in fig. 5.2.6.1 - based on air pressure data- which show that storminess in north-western, northern and central Europe has been relatively high during the late nineteenth and the early twentieth century; then decreased again in central Europe and northern Europe. The subsequent rise in the late 20th century was most pronounced in north-western Europe, while slow and steady in central Europe. Most recent years feature average or calm conditions (Matulla et al., 2007). The evaluation of the high tide levels along the North Sea in the past century found clear signals in mean levels (the sea level rise) but not in storm-related variation (von Storch at al., 2002). Also a study of storm surges occurrence in Northern Adriatic Sea showed that high sea level trend is not associated to a trend of storminess (Lionello 2005).

Projections Extra-tropical storm tracks are projected to move poleward, with consequent changes in wind, precipitation, and temperature patterns, continuing the observed trends over the last half-century (IPCC, 2007). The total number of storms is projected to decrease, whereas the strength of the heaviest storms may increase (see Figure 5.2.6.2 showing the difference of a regional maximum wind distribution between different model outputs). Note that these projections are still very uncertain and model dependent. During historical times, storminess and large-scale temperature variations were mostly decoupled, but the scenarios show different conditions. Some projections, based on the high emissions IPCC SRES A2 scenario, show an increase in the frequency of heavy storms for the North Atlantic Ocean. In this region both higher temperature and high storm frequency change, where the trend in storms is smaller than for temperature. The future storminess in this region depends on projections of sea surface temperature, retreat of arctic ice and changes of the air pressure field (Fischer-Bruns et al., 2005).Projections of storm surges are closely connected with the future storminess behaviour. For the end of 21st century the projections point to a significant increase of storm surge elevations for the continental North Sea coast by between 15 and almost 25 cm (Woth, 2005). Also for the UK coastline a large increase in relative surge height has been projected for the high IPCC SRES scenario A2 and the intermediate

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scenario B2, especially along the southeast coast of England, where the changes in storminess will have their largest effect and where the land is sinking most rapidly (Lowe and Gregory, 2005, Fig. 5.2.6.3).

Figure 5.2.6.2. Relative change (%) in the annual maximum daily mean wind speed at 10 m height between the +2C scenario for 2050 and the reference climate (1961-2000) from three similar GCMs (left) and one different GCM, MIROCHi (right) (Source: KNMI Climate Change Scenarios 2006 for the Netherlands).

Figure 5.2.6.3. Change in the height (m) of an extreme water level event (with probability of occurrence 2 times in 100 years) measured relative to the present day tide, due to changes in atmospheric storminess, an increase in mean sea level and vertical land movements. Results are shown for the (a) A2 scenario (b) B2 scenario for the end of 21st century (Source. Lowe, J.A. and Gregory, J.M. 2005) (Note: will be specified used model)

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5.2.7 Air pollution by ozone

Key Messages

• Climate change has contributed to an increase in ozone concentration in central and South-Western Europe (1-2% per decade).

• During the summer of 2003, exceptionally long-lasting and spatially extensive episodes of high ozone concentrations occurred, mainly in the first half of August. These episodes appear to be associated with the extraordinarily hot temperatures over wide areas of Europe.

• Due to projected climate change, more frequent exceedances of the ozone information threshold could be expected, even at the current emission levels.

Figure 5.2.7.1: Trend in tropospheric ozone concentrations (unit: % per decade) due to climate change. White areas have no significant trend. For the left panel the time period is 1958–2001. For the right panel, the time period is 1979–2001. (Source Andersson et al., 2007)

Relevance Tropospheric ozone is one of the air pollutants of most concern in Europe. Ozone is estimated to cause about 20,000 annual acute mortalities (European Commission, Clean Air for Europe impact assessment, 2006) and an economic damage due to crop loss of €4625 million per year (Holland et al, 2006). Ozone is formed in the lower troposphere from complex chemical reactions between volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides, in the presence of sunlight. EU legislation has established ozone exceedance thresholds and national emission ceilings for ozone precursor emissions in order to protect human health and prevent damage to ecosystems, agricultural crops and materials.Episodes, i.e. periods with elevated ozone levels, mainly occur during periods of warm sunny weather. An increasing likelihood of hot extremes, heat waves in Europe is expected to cause a climate-driven impact on ozone episodes which may call for more vigorous emission reduction measures. Also adaptation measures are available, such as improved public information and health care services.

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Past trendsA modelling study from 1958 to 2001 (Andersson et al., 2007) shows that an increase in temperature contributed to increased ozone concentrations during the period 1979-2001 over south-central and south-western Europe. Temperature affects the emission of biogenic organic compounds (isoprene) which are precursors for ozone formation, and the photo-dissociation of NO2 (Figure 5.2.7.1).A statistical analysis of ozone and temperature measurements in Europe for the period 1990 – 2004 shows that in Central-Western Europe and the Mediterranean area, a change in the daily maximum temperature in the period 1999 – 2004 compared to 1990-94 has contributed to extra ozone exceedences (Figure 5.2.7.2). In South and central Europe, the temperature trend was responsible for 8 extra exceedence days of 120 µg/m³, i.e. 17% of the total number of exceedences observed in that region. An analysis of trends over the past 12 years indicates that in the European Union the average number of hours per station when ozone concentration exceeded the information threshold of 180 μg/m3 was higher in summer 2003 than in all previous years (EEA, 2003).

ProjectionsThe expected trends for ozone and other air pollutants are closely linked to projections for radiation, temperature, cloudiness, and precipitation. On a global scale, the effect of climate change only on tropospheric ozone is expected to be small, due to a reduction in the ozone lifetime as a consequence of higher humidities (Stevenson et al, 2006). However, regional differences can be large. A model study based on the IPCC92a scenario shows a strong increase in tropospheric ozone over southern and central Europe, and a decrease over northern Europe (Langner et al., 2005), in line with observed trends form the past. These changes are due to climate change only, and are likely to exacerbate air quality in regions with high NOx emissions.

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Figure 5.2.7.2: Change in number of ozone exceedance days per year2, from period 1990-1994 to the period 1999-2004 (excluding the year 2003). Green bars indicate the net change (increase or decrease) in the number of exceedences. Orange bars indicate the contribution due to the temperature change during that period, the blue bars indicate the contribution of other causes (e.g. changing emissions). Source: Van Dingenen et al., manuscript submitted.

2 days where the maximal 8hr average ozone concentration exceeds 120 µg per m³

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5.3 Cryosphere

5.3.1 IntroductionThe cryosphere is the frozen part of the world. It includes all permanent or seasonal snow and ice deposits on land, in the seas, in rivers and lakes and in the ground (permafrost). It is the second largest component of the climate system after the oceans with regard to mass and heat capacity. Snow and ice play a key role in the earth’s energy budget by reflecting heat from the sun due to its light surfaces. As melting replaces white surfaces with darker, more heat is being absorbed (the albedo effect). Three quarters of the world’s freshwater resources are frozen. Snow and ice play a key role in the water cycle and are essential for storing fresh water for the hotter and often dryer seasons.

The cryosphere is important for the exchange of gases between the ground and the atmosphere – among these several greenhouse gases, e.g. methane. Finally, ice and snow are defining components of ecosystems in the northern parts of the Northern hemisphere and in high mountain areas. Many plants and animals have evolved to live under these conditions and can not live without. The cryosphere hence plays a major role in various dimensions of the climate system: it is affected if the climate changes, but its own changes affect the climate system in turn. Therefore, monitoring these changes provides crucial knowledge about climate change.

Selection of indicators

The various components play strong but different roles within the climate system:

Due to their large volumes and areas, the two continental ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica actively influence the global climate over very long time scales. Sea level can however be affected more rapidly.

Snow covers a large area too, but has relatively small volume. It is important for key global interactions and feedbacks like albedo.

Sea ice also covers a large area. It is important due to its albedo and its impacts on ocean circulation, which transports heat from equator to the poles.

Melting permafrost release the strong greenhouse gas methane from frozen organic material. Together with seasonal snow, it influences the water content in the soil and the vegetation.

Glaciers, ice caps and seasonal lake ice, with their smaller areas and volumes, react relatively quickly to changes in climate, influencing ecosystems and human activities on a local scale. They are good indicators of climate change.

The selected indicators cover strategic information from all these compartments of the cryosphere: glaciers and snow cover in Europe, the Greenland ice sheet, the Arctic sea ice and mountain permafrost in Central Europe. Lake and river ice conditions are presented in the water chapter.

Indicators and vulnerability

The cryosphere is vulnerable to global warming. It is a very visible expression of climate change. It integrates climate variations over a wide range of time scales, from millennia to seasonal variations throughout the year. This can sometimes complicate interpretations of why changes happen.

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In Europe, the most vulnerable areas are the high mountain areas, and the Arctic. Both in the Arctic and the European Alps, temperatures have increased more than global rate in the past few decades; in the Arctic as a whole, twice as much. The amount of ice and snow, especially in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased substantially over the last few decades due to increased temperatures. European glaciers shrink, snow covered areas creep higher up and further north, sea ice in the Arctic melts and gets thinner, permafrost starts to thaw, and the Greenland ice sheet shows increasing signals of disintegration and thawing at its borders. These trends will accelerate as climate change is projected to continue. However, there are also large uncertainties to the fate of global key components of the cryosphere; it is not possible to give reliable predictions about when the Arctic sea ice will melt completely in summer. Neither is it possible now to predict the future of the Greenland ice sheets with any confidence

Data and info sources

Data on the components of the cryosphere are quite different with regard to availability and quality. Long-term data records on glaciers of all European glaciated areas are provided in a considerable quality by the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) in Zürich. Data on snow cover and Arctic sea ice from the past are mostly regionally available only, measured by scientific expeditions or military submarines. More recent data covering great areas result mostly from satellite missions backed by ground-truth measurements, available e.g. at the Global Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) in Boulder/U.S.A. Particularly area-wide data on the Greenland ice-sheet are often available not longer than for 15 years, as well as data on mountain permafrost measured in boreholes which are drilled into frozen rock walls.

The gaps in the cryospheric data base are well recognized by the scientific community and many efforts are taken to improve the knowledge, e.g. during the actual running International Polar Year (IPY).

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5.3.2 GlaciersKey Messages• The vast majority of glaciers in the European glacial regions are in retreat.• Since 1850, glaciers in the European Alps have lost approximately two thirds of their volume, with clear acceleration since 1985.• Glacier retreat is projected to continue. A 3°C warming of summer air temperature could

reduce the currently existing glacier cover of the European Alps by some 80 %. With ongoing climate change nearly all of the smaller glaciers and one third of the overall glacier area in Norway are projected to disappear by 2100.

• Glacier retreat has serious consequences for river flow. It impacts freshwater supply, river navigation, irrigation and power generation. It could cause natural hazards and damages to infrastructure.

Presentation of the main indicator

Figure 5.3.2.1.: Cumulative ice loss (in mm) of glaciers from all European regions with glaciers Source: World Glacier Monitoring Service (www.wgms.ch), 2006.

RelevanceGlacier changes are among the most visible indications of the effects of climate change. Glaciers are particularly sensitive to changes in the global climate because their surface temperature is close to the freezing/melting point (Zemp et al., 2007). Glacier fluctuations show a strong relation to air temperature throughout the 20th century (Greene, 2005), and a strong physical basis exists to explain why warming would cause mass loss (IPCC, 2007a). Therefore their mass balance, resulting from accumulation (mainly snow fall) and ablation (mainly melting and calving), is considered as a immediate signal for the early detection of global warming trends. Glaciers are important freshwater resources and act as `water towers’ for the lower lying regions. With a diminished ice mass, the annual melt water and therefore the contribution to river flow and sea level rise is decreasing in the long term. This will cause serious consequences for freshwater supply, river-navigation, irrigation facilities, and power generation. Strong retreat of glaciers can cause glacier instabilities with hazardous incidents

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such as glacier lake outbursts, rock-ice avalanches and landslides (Pralong et al., 2005; Huggel et al., 2007). This may cause more damage to infrastructure. Glacier retreat affects tourism and winter sports in the mountains (OECD, 2007) and changes the appearance of mountain landscapes. Adaptation options, such as improved glacier monitoring, water management measures, draining of glacier-lakes and construction of protective walls can reduce some of the risks and negative consequences, but not all.

Past trendsAccording to the high-quality data-records of the WGMS in all of the European glacier regions, a general loss of glacier mass has been observed (Fig.: 5.3.2.1). Glacier retreat in Europe started after the maximum glacier-extent of the so-called ‘Little Ice Age’ in the middle of the nineteenth century. In the Alps, glaciers lost one third of their surface and one half of their volume between 1850 and 1970s. After 1985 an acceleration in glacial retreat has been observed, which led to a loss of 25% of the remaining ice until 2000 (Zemp et al., 2006). This culminated in a further ice loss of 5-10% in the extraordinary hot and dry summer of 2003 (Zemp et al., 2005), and resulted in a total loss of about 2/3 of ice mass until present. This is illustrated by the shrinking of the Vernagtferner-glacier in Austria (Fig.: 5.3.2.2). Also the Norwegian coastal glaciers, which were expanding and gaining mass due to increased snowfall in winter up to the end of the 1990s, are retreating now by reduced winter precipitation and greater summer melting (Nesje et al., 2007; Andreassen et al, 2005). Glaciers in Svalbard are experiencing mass loss at lower elevations, and the fronts of nearly all glaciers there are retreating (Haeberli et al., 2005; Nuth et al. 2007). Some ice caps in north-eastern Svalbard seem to increase in thickness at higher elevations (Bamber et al., 2004, Bevan et al., 2007). However, estimates for Svalbard as a whole show the total balance is negative (Hagen et al. 2003), and there is a clear signal of accelerated melting at least in western Svalbard (Kohler et al., 2007). Very recent findings by the WGMS (UNEP, 2008) indicate a clearly increased annual reduction of the global-mean ice-thickness of glaciers since the turn of millennium (0.5m) compared to the 1980-1999 period (0.3 m). Some of the most dramatic shrinking has taken place in Europe (Scandinavia, Alps, and Pyrenees).The centennial retreat of European glaciers is mainly attributed to increased summer temperatures. However, changes in winter precipitation, the decreased glacier albedo due to lack of summer snow fall and various other feedback processes alter the pattern on regional and decadal scale. The recent strong warming has made disintegration and down wasting increasingly dominant causes of glacier decline in the European Alps during the most recent past (Paul et al., 2004).

Projections According to a recently published sensitivity study (Zemp, 2006) the European Alps could lose about 80 % of their currently existing glacier cover, should summer air temperatures rise by 3° C and a precipitation increase of 25 % for each 1°C would be needed to offset the glacial loss. The modelled remains of Alpine glaciers as a consequence of warming is presented in Fig. 5.3.2.3. Sugiyama et al. (2007) investigated the potential evolution of Rhone Glacier, Switzerland, in the 21st century based on a model considering more the glacier flow dynamics. They found increasing mass loss as well, but to a gradual lesser extent. However, both modelling studies did not consider feedback processes such as the development of glacier lakes, which might accelerate the glacier retreat dramatically. Recent climate scenarios for Norway basing on model calculations of the British Headley Centre and the German Max Planck Institute which follow the SRES B2 emission-scenario indicate a rise in summer-temperature by 2.3°C and an increase in winter-precipitation by 16% by the end of 21st century. As a result, nearly all of the smaller Norwegian glaciers are likely to disappear and the overall glacier area may be reduced by about one third at 2100 (Nesje et al., 2007).

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Fig.5.3.2.3: Modeled remains of the glacier cover in the European Alps (climatic accumulation area) for an increase in summer air temperature of +1 to +5 °C.

(The total of 100% refers to the ice cover of the period 1971–1990). Source: Zemp, M., 2006

Figure 5.3.2.2: Shrinking of the Vernagt-ferner glacier, Austria Source: Commission of Glaciology, Bavarian Academy of Sciences; Munich, 2006

www.glaziologie.de

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5.3.3. Snow cover

Key Messages• The northern hemisphere's snow cover extent has decreased at a rate of 1.3% per decade

during the last 40 years. The greatest losses are in spring and summer. • Model simulations project widespread reductions of extent and duration of snow cover in

Europe over the 21st century.• Changes in snow cover affect the Earth surface reflectivity, river discharge, vegetation,

agriculture and animal husbandry, tourism, snow sports, transport and power generation.

Presentation of the main indicator:

RelevanceSnow covers more than 33 % of the land surface north of the equator from November to April. It reaches a maximum of approximately 45.2 million km2 in January, and a minimum of about 1.9 million km2 in August (Clark et al., 1999a).Snow cover is an important feedback mechanism in the climate system. The extent of snow cover depends on the climate e.g. on temperature, precipitation and solar radiation. But it also influences the climate and climate-related systems by its high reflectivity, insulating properties, its effects on water resources and ecosystems, and cooling of the atmosphere. Thus a decrease in snow cover reduces the reflection of solar radiation, contributing to an accelerated climate change. Changes in extent, duration, thickness and properties of snow cover have an impact on water availability, as for domestic use, navigation and power generation. Changes in snow cover affect human well-being through influences on agriculture, infrastructure, and livelihoods of Arctic indigenous people, environmental

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Fig. 5.3.3.1: Differences in the distribution of March-April average snow-cover in Europe between earlier (1967-1987) and later ((1988-2004) portions of the satellite era (% coverage).Negative values (brown) indicate greater extent of snow cover in the earlier portion.Red curves show the 0°C and 5 °C isotherms averaged for March and April 1967 to 2004Source:modified from Lemke et al. (2007)

Fig. 5.3.3.2: Northern Hemisphere snow-cover extent departures from monthly means from 1966 to 2005Source: Brodzik, 2006 (NOAA-data)

hazards and winter recreation. Snow cover retreat can reduce complications in winter road and rail maintenance, affecting the exploitation and transport of oil and gas in cold regions (UNEP, 2007; ACIA, 2004).Shallow snow cover at low elevations in temperate regions is the most sensitive to temperature fluctuations and hence most likely to decline with increasing temperature (IPCC, 2007).For several of these impacts, adaptation can reduce the negative implications of snow cover change. Some adaptation options, such as artificial snowmaking in the Alps to maintain tourism as a main source of income, have to be balanced against their negative implications for mitigation, due to increased energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.

Past trends Data from satellite monitoring (NESDIS-database at NOAA) from 1966 to 2005 show that monthly snow-cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere is decreasing at a rate of 1.3% per decade (Fig. 5.3.3.2), with the strongest retreat in spring (Fig. 5.3.3.1) and summer (UNEP, 2007). It has declined in all months except November and December, with the most significant decrease during May to August (Brodzik et al., 2006). This was accompanied by lower springtime water content, earlier disappearance of continuous snow cover in spring (by almost two weeks in the 1972-2000 period; Dye, 2002), less frequent frost days and shorter frost-seasons. The trends in duration and depths of Northern Hemispheric snow cover at higher latitudes differ by region. In contrast to a reduced duration of snow cover over North America, a long term increase in depth and duration has been observed over most of northern Eurasia (Kitaev et al., 2005).Snow cover trends in mountain regions of Europe vary largely with region and altitude. Recent declines in snow cover have been documented in mountains of Switzerland (e.g. Scherrer et al., 2004) and Slovakia (Vojtek et al., 2003), but no change was observed in Bulgaria over the 1931 to 2000 period (Petkova et al.,2004). Declines, when observed, were largest at lower elevations, and Scherrer et al. (2004) statistically attributed the declines in theSwiss Alps to warming. Lowland areas of central Europe are characterised by recent reductions in annual snow cover duration by about 1 day/year (Falarz, 2002). At Abisko in subarctic Sweden, increases in snow depth have been recorded since 1913 (Kohler et al., 2006), and trends towards greater maximum snow depth but shorter snow season have been noted in Finland (Hyvärinen, 2003).

ProjectionsModel simulations project widespread reductions in snow cover over the 21st century (IPCC, 2007). Decreases of between 9 and 17% in the annual mean NH snow cover by the end of 21st

century are projected by individual models (ACIA, 2004). Although winter precipitation is projected to increase in northern and central Europe (Christensen et al., 2007), less frequent frost occurrence associated with higher temperatures are projected to reduce the number of days with snow cover (Fig. 5.3.3.3). Decreases of more than 60 snow cover days are projected to occur around the northern Baltic Sea, on the west slope of the Scandinavian mountains and in the Alps (Jylhä et al., 2007).The beginning of the snow accumulation season (the end of the snowmelt season) is projected to be later (earlier), and the snow coverage is projected to decrease during the snow season (Hosaka et al., 2005). For every 1 °C increase in winter-temperature, the snowline rises by about 150 metres in the European Alps (Beniston, 2003a). Regional climate model runs, following the SRES emission scenarios A1B, B1 and A2, project milder winters with more precipitation in this region, increasingly falling as rain (Jacob et al, 2007). A recently published study of the Alpine region by Hantel et al. (2007) reported an estimated reduction of about 30 days in snow duration (snow cover of at least 5 cm) in winter at the height of maximum sensitivity (about 700m) for a 1°C increase in temperature over central Europe (5-25°E and 42.5-52.5°N).

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Snowfall in lower mountain areas is likely to become increasingly unpredictable and unreliable over the coming decades (Elsasser and Bürki, 2002), with consequences for natural snow-reliability and therefore difficulties in attracting tourists and winter sport enthusiasts in the future (OECD, 2007).Snowfall in lower mountain areas is likely to become increasingly unpredictable and unreliable over the coming decades (Elsasser and Bürki, 2002), with consequences for natural snow-reliability and therefore difficulties in attracting tourists and winter sport enthusiasts in the future (OECD, 2007).

Fig. 5.3.3.3 Annual number of days with snow covers over land areas (a) Observed means in northern Europe, 1961-1990 (coloured dots) and modelled means for Europe, 1961-1990, based on seven regional climate model simulations (contours) ;(b) Projected multi-model mean changes for the period 2071-2100, relative to 1961-1990Source: Jylhä et al., 2007

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5.3.4 Greenland Ice Sheet

Key Messages• The ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet more than doubled in the last decade of the 20th century and may have doubled again by 2005 (UNEP 2005). Accelerated movement of outlet glaciers towards the sea accounts for 2/3 of the ice loss (Rignot et al 2006).• The corresponding contribution to global sea level rise has been suggested having increased from 0,14 to 0,28 mm/year between 1993 and 2003. In the long run, melting ice sheets have the largest potential to increase sea level.* It is not possible to give reliable predictions of the future of the ice sheets yet; Processes causing the faster movements of the glaciers are poorly understood and there is a lack of long term observations. Presentation of the main indicators

Figure 5.3.4.1: Calculations of the ice mass changes in Greenland demonstrate increased ice loss over time, but also uncertainties in the most recent estimates since estimates from the same period do not overlap. The rectangles depict the time period of observations (horizontal) and the upper and lower estimates of mass balance. Open bars refer to direct calculations from gravity measuring satellites, filled bars are other techniques. (Source: Cazenave 2006)

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2007

Figure5.3.4. 2: The area of Greenland that undergoes melting during a year has increased over time; melting now reaches altitudes up to xxx masl. The melting areas however also receive snow, so the resulting changes in mass balance is not negative all over the red areas. (Konrad Steffen and Russell Huff, CIRES, University of Colorado at Boulder)

RelevanceThe polar ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica contain 98-99% of the freshwater ice on Earth’s surface. The frozen water stored in Antarctica equals a 57 meters rise in global sea level, whereas the water in the Greenland ice equals 7 meters. When setting their upper estimate of 80 cm sea level rise at the end of this century, the IPCC did not take into account a possible acceleration in ice loss from the ice sheets. The uncertainty about their future is therefore a main reason for uncertainties in projections of sea level rise. The Greenland ice sheet is the most susceptible to warming because of its vicinity to the Atlantic Ocean and other continents. But also the Antarctica now seems to have a net loss of ice that may be accelerating (UNEP 2007). (See indicator on sea level)

The speed of ice loss is important in addition to the magnitude because a faster increase in sea level reduces the time to take appropriate adaptation measures.

The melt water from Greenland will contribute to reduce the salinity of the surrounding ocean. An upper layer of fresher water will reduce the formation of dense deep water, one of the mechanisms setting up global ocean circulation.

Past trendsThe Greenland Ice Sheet is a huge inland glacier with several glacier tongues calving into the sea. It covers roughly 80% of Greenland. The average ice thickness is 1600 meters, with the highest summit reaching 3200 meters above sea level. It has a volume of approximately 3 million km3.

Until recent improvements in remote sensing, it was hard to measure whether the polar ice sheets were growing or shrinking. Still most time series are short. There is however a general consensus from different measurements that the melting of the Greenland Ice sheet has accelerated; From a near balance in the early 90s, the loss of ice is estimated to have doubled in the last decade of the 20th century to about 100 billion tonnes per year and may have doubled again by 2005 (UNEP 2007). The estimated contribution to sea level rise increased from 0,14 to 28 mm/year between 1993 – 2003 (IPCC WG 1, page TS-23). However, there is still considerable discrepancy between different estimates on current ice loss (see figure 5.3.4.1) The year 2007 ….(to be updated when new estimates come)

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The ice has thickened in the interior of the Greenland ice sheet above 2000 meters since it has received more snowfall – in average ap. 4 cm/year since 2000. This gain has been more than offset by the loss in lower-lying regions. The air temperatures have risen (K Steffens: 7 degrees F since 1991), and the area that undergoes melting has increased by xx% from 1997 to 2007 with 2007 as the year with the most widespread melting measured (figure 5.3.4.2).

Large amounts of meltwater form rivers and melting ponds at the surface and penetrate through crevasses to the bottom of the glacier. Here the water probably lubricates the bedrock-ice interface, making the glaciers move faster. The fastest flowing glacier, Illulisat doubled its speed up to 14 km/year and also discharges twice as much ice into the ocean. Individual glaciers are also reported to slow down, possibly around a new equilibrium. The phenomena is widespread mostly on the southeast coast and has moved northwards to ap. 70o N. The speeding up of the glaciers is associated with large retreats and thinning. The surface elevation can subside with tens of metres near the outlets. The outlet glaciers act as “bathtube drains” to the inner ice; ice is being transported into the melting zone, and calving into the ocean increases. The speeding up of the outlet glaciers accounted for 2/3 of the ice loss from Greenland in 2005 (Rignot and Kanagaratnam 2006). The rest is the difference between snow accumulation and melting.

Projections It is not possible to predict the future development of the Greenland ice sheet with confidence. Glacier models account mostly for accumulation of snow during winter and melting in summer (surface mass balance). The processes at the bottom of the glaciers believed to cause their acceleration are not understood well and can therefore not be modelled with confidence. The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to global warming therefore largely is unknown – also if there are tipping points that can accelerate the melting because of positive feed-backs.

Deep ice core drillings can give some indications. The Eem period 120 000 years ago was approximately 5 degrees warmer that today, but the Greenland ice did not melt down completely. Sea level rose 5 meters above today’s level, with the melting Greenland ice contributing 1-2 meters (Dahl Jensen, pers. com).

The ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have been associated with slow climate responses over thousands of years. But the acceleration of ice movement has caused a rethinking of how fast they respond to warming. Paleodata show periods of rapid melting of the large continental ice sheets after the last ice age, resulting in average rise of sea level with 1 cm/year and peak rates up to 4 cm/year (UNEP 2007). However, the observation periods for the recent changes are too short to draw clear conclusions on the nature of changes observed. If current trends continue, it seems however likely that there will be a faster ice loss than previously expected. Since the contributions to sea level rise from rapidly changing flow in ice sheets were excluded from the IPCC 2007 projections, this could also lead to a higher rise in sea level than their upper estimate of +80 cm. As to the ocean currents, the IPCC projects a 25% reduction in this century of the North Atlantic Current, but no abrupt changes.

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5.3.5 Arctic Sea Ice

Key Messages

• Sea ice extent in the melt season has declined at an accelerating rate. The record low ice cover September 2007 was roughly half the size of the normal minimum extent in the 1950s.* The summer ice is projected to continue to shrink and may even disappear at the height of the melt season in the upcoming decades. There will still be substantial ice in winter. • Reduced polar ice will speed up global warming and is expected to impact ocean circulation and weather patterns. Species specialized for life in the ice are threatened and some could even get extinct.* Less ice will ease the access to the Arctic’s resources. Oil and gas exploration, shipping, tourism and fisheries will offer new opportunities, but also increase pressures and risks to the Arctic environment. Presentation of the main indicator(s)

Figure 5.3.5.1: Time trends of arctic sea-ice extent(Will be combined in one graph with absolute values of extent at y-axis)

(Source: Serreze et al 2007, must be updated to 2007 for summer and 2008 for winter).

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Figure 5.3.5.2: Geography of arctic sea ice extentThe extent of the summer sea ice in September 2007 reached a historical minimum, 39% below the climatic average for the first two decades of satellite observations, starting in 1979 (red line). The weather conditions that summer was dominated by clear sky. Continuous warm winds blew the ice towards the coast of Canada-Greenland and southwards through the Fram Strait east of Greenland and out in the NE Atlantic.

Relevance Reduction in Arctic sea ice has several feedbacks to the climate system. Snow- covered ice reflects 85% of the sunlight (high albedo), whereas open water reflects only 7% (low albedo). Less ice and snow will therefore both accelerate the sea ice decline and global warming. Reduced ice formation will also reduce formation of dense deep water which contributes to drive ocean circulation. As the ice cover influences air temperature and circulation of air masses, changes in weather patterns such as storm tracks and precipitation can be expected even at mid-latitudes (Serreze et al 2007).

The sea ice is an ecosystem filled with life uniquely adapted to these conditions, from micro organisms in channels and pores inside the ice, rich algae communities underneath, to fish, seals, whales and polar bears. The diversity of life in the ice grows with the age of the ice floes. These species will be reduced in numbers with a risk of extinction for some of them when the ice gets younger and smaller. Arctic indigenous peoples adapted to fish and hunt species associated with ice, will have to face large economic, social and cultural changes.

Less summer ice will ease the access to the Arctic Ocean’s resources, though remaining ice still will pose a major challenge to operations most of the year. Expectations of large undiscovered oil and gas resources already drive the focus of the petroleum industry and governments northwards. As marine species move northwards with warmer sea and less ice, so will the fishing fleet. It is however hard to predict whether the fisheries will become richer or not; fish species react differently to changes in marine climate, and it is hard to predict whether the timing of the annual plankton blooms will match the growth of larvae and young fish also in the future. Shipping and tourism are likely to increase, though drift ice, short sailing seasons and lack of infrastructure will impede a fast development of transcontinental shipping of goods; it is more likely that traffic linked to extraction of Arctic resources in the

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outskirts of the northern sea routes will grow first. These activities offer new economic opportunities. At the same time they also represent new pressures and risks to an ocean that so far has been closed to most economic activities by the ice. This should be met by better international regulations.

A race for the Arctic’s resources may represent a challenge for security in an area where there still are some unsettled marine borders and jurisdiction disputes. Several such disputes have found their solution through negotiations between the Arctic coastal states. Past trends The extent of the minimum ice cover at the end of the melt season in September 2007 broke all previous records. If older ship and aircraft observations are taken into account, sea ice coverage may have been halved since the1950s. (NSIDC, 2007; Meier, 2007). Since the more reliable satellite observations started in 1979, the summer ice has shrunk with 10,2 % per decade. (Comiso 2007, NSIDC, 2007). The reduction in maximum extent in winter is smaller, with a decrease of 2,9% per decade .(Figure 5.3.5.1) (Stroeve et al 2007). Both summer and winter decline has accelerated (Comiso 2008).

The ice also gets thinner and younger since less ice survives summer and grows into thicker multi-year floes. There is a remarkable shift in the composition of the sea ice towards less multi-year ice and larger areas covered with first-year ice. This young ice absorbs more heat, is weaker and has less biological life than the older ice. (Figure 5.3.5.3).

Figure 5.3.5.3. Time series of area of perennial sea ice extent in March of each year in the period 1957 - 2007 (Nghiem et al 2007)

Observations of thickness are more scattered, and it is hard to calculate trends for the whole ice cover. Submarine data have been considered to be most representative and have demonstrated a decrease of 40% from an average of 3,1 meters in 1956-78 to 1,8 meters in the 1990s (Rothrock et al 1999; UNEP 2007). British submarine data show continued thinning (Wadham, pers com). German observations from the area around the North pole indicate that ice thickness here has decreased from 2 m in 2001 to 0.9 m in 2007, both due to a general thinning and a shift towards generally younger ice (Nghiem et al,;2007;  Haas, pers.com.) These results are in stark contrast with

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observations between Ellesmere Island and 86N, where ice thickness was still above 4 m in 2006 (Haas et al., 2006).

The Arctic sea ice reacts very sensitively to changes in air and ocean temperatures as well as winds, waves and ocean currents. There are strong imprints of natural variability in the observed changes, e.g. due to regular shifts in the circulation patterns of the polar atmosphere. However, the changes that can be attributed to increases in greenhouse gases seem to increase over time (Stroeve et. al., 2007).

Projections The summer ice is very likely to continue to shrink in extent and thickness, leaving larger areas of open waters for an extended period of time. It is also very likely that conditions for freezing in winter will persist so the winter sea ice still will cover large areas.

The speed of change is however uncertain. Several international assessments until recently concluded that mostly ice free late-summers may occur by the end of this century (ACIA, 2004; IPCC, 2007; UNEP, 2007). But the actual melting has been faster than the average trends simulated by the climate models used for these assessments (Figure 5.3.5.4). New model studies suggest that ice-free summers may occur in a much nearer future. (Winton, 2006; Holland et. al., 2006; Stroeve et. al, 2007; Maslowski, 2007). Exactly when is impossible to predict, both due to the limited understanding of the processes involved and the large variability of the system.

Most studies emphasize that it is very likely that a thinner and more vulnerable ice will break up so more heat from the sun will be absorbed in the open water. This can lead to abrupt melting and a high susceptibility to strong winds when weather conditions are favourable, like in the summer of 2007. An increased influx of warm Atlantic and Pacific water can also be an important mechanism for further weakening of the sea ice. Unless followed by consecutive years of cold winters, such events will produce a thinner, younger and even more vulnerable ice cover that can melt more easily the next summer, and more easily be transported out of the Polar Ocean.

Figure 5.3.5.4: Arctic September sea ice extent from observations (thick red line) and 13 IPCC AR4 climate models, together with the mean value (solid black line) and variation (dotted black line) from several models run, each run for several scenarios (Stroeve et al 2007).

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5.3.6. Mountain Permafrost

Key Messages• A long-term regional warming of mountain permafrost of 0.5-1.0°C has been observed

during the recent decades. • Present and projected atmospheric warming will lead to wide-spread thaw of mountain

permafrost.• Warming and melting of permafrost is expected to contribute to increasing the

destabilization of mountain rock-walls, the frequency of rock fall, debris flow activity and geotechnical and maintenance problems in high-mountain infrastructure.

Presentation of the main indicators

Figure 5.3.6.1: Temperature in a mountain range Figure 5.3.6.2: Temperatures measured in containing permafrost different boreholes at ca. 10.0 m depth(blue colours bordered by black line) (drilled in rock-glaciers and frozen rock-walls)Source: Gruber (2007) Source: PERMOS (2007) [http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/mountain-permafrost-patterns-and-temperature-gradients]

RelevancePermafrost is permanently frozen ground and consists of rock or soil material that has remained at or below 0°C continuously for more than 2 years. Mountain permafrost is abundant at high elevations in mid-latitude mountains, where the annual mean temperature is below -3°C. It contains variable amounts of ice and exists in different forms: in steep bedrock, in rock glaciers, in debris deposited by glaciers or in vegetated soil. Because vegetation and circulating groundwater in the mountain permafrost area are mostly absent, the temperature in the deeper rock material is largely determined by the history of temperature at its surface. Therefore mountain permafrost contains valuable information on climate change. Even if temperature profiles from alpine boreholes are difficult to interpret in terms of past trends due to the effects of the complex topography (Fig.5.3.6.1) and the availability of insulating snow-cover (Gruber et al., 2004), monitoring of temperature changes at depth however provides valuable data on the thermal response of permafrost to climate change.Permafrost influences the evolution of mountain landscapes and affects human infrastructure and safety. Permafrost warming or thaw affects the potential for natural hazards, such as rock falls (e.g. at the Matterhorn in summer 2003) and debris flows (Noetzli et al., 2003; Gruber and Haeberli, 2007). At least four large events involving rock volumes over 1 million m3 took place in the Alps during the last decade. Its effects on infrastructure have motivated the development of technical solutions to improve design lifetime and safety (Philips et al., 2007).

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Past trends Data from a north-south transect of boreholes, 100m or more deep, extending from Svalbard to the Alps (European PACE-project) indicate a long-term regional warming of permafrost of 0.5-1.0°C during recent decades (Harris et al., 2003). In Scandinavia and Svalbard, monitoring over 5-7 years show warming down to 60m depth and present warming rates at the permafrost surface of 0.04-0.07°C/year (Isaksen et al., 2007). In Switzerland, a warming trend and increased active-layer depths were observed in 2003, but results varied strongly between borehole locations due to variations in snow cover and ground properties (PERMOS, 2007). At the Murtel-Corvatsch (rock-glacier) borehole in the Swiss Alps, the only long-term data-record (20 years), permafrost temperatures in 2001, 2003 and 2004 were only slightly below -1°C (Fig. 5.3.6.2) and were, apart from 1993 and 1994, the highest since measurements began in 1987 (Vonder Mühll et al., 2007). Such data measured at rock-glaciers are difficult to interpret because the subsurface thermodynamics in ice-rich frozen debris are rather complex. Complementary and clearer signals on thawing permafrost are expected from boreholes that were directly drilled into bedrock (e.g. Schilthorn and M. Barba Peider; Fig.:5.3.6.2). Corresponding monitoring programs, such as PACE and PERMOS, however, have started only less than a decade ago..ProjectionsNo specific projections on the behaviour of mountain permafrost are available yet, but changes in mountain permafrost are likely to continue in the near future and the majority of permafrost bodies will experience warming and/or melting. According to recent model calculations basing on the regional climate model REMO and following the IPCC SRES-Scenarios A1B, A2 and B1, in the Alpine region a warming up to 4°C until 2100 is projected (Jacob et al., 2007). The further rising temperatures and melting permafrost could increasingly destabilize mountain walls and increase the frequency of rock falls, posing problems to mountain infrastructure and communities (Gruber et al., 2004). The warming and thaw of bedrock permafrost can sometimes be fast and failure along ice-filled joints can occur even at temperatures below 0°C (Davies et al., 2001). Water flowing along linear structures and the advection of heat along joint systems will further accelerate destabilisation (Gruber and Haeberli, 2007).

Fig.: 5.3.6.4 Rock-Glacier Murtel-Corvatsch Source: M.PhillipsFig.: 5.3.6.3 TheMatterhornSource: M.Phillips

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5.4 Marine systems

5.4.1 Introduction

The oceans play a key role in the regulation of climate by transporting heat northward and by distributing energy from the atmosphere into the deep parts of the ocean. The Gulf Stream and its extensions, the North Atlantic current and drift, influence European weather patterns and storm tracks. The heat transported northward by the oceanic circulation impacts precipitation and wind regimes over Europe. On the other hand, oceans are also affected by the climatic conditions and the induced changes in physical conditions affect the marine ecosystems. Reductions in sea ice coverage in the arctic polar region are probably the most visible indicators of climate change and the economic consequences of Arctic sea ice disappearance are likely to be of great importance for Europe (see also Section 5.3).In the following chapters, changes in sea level and sea surface temperature are discussed, followed by examples of the chemical consequences (acidification of the ocean) and the biological consequences (changes in physiology, distribution, phenology and genetic composition) and the associated impacts on marine life in all European seas. The examples chosen to document changes in the marine food-web in this report are all well accepted in the scientific community as examples of a climatic impact in the marine environment. In general changes related to the physical marine environment are better documented than chemical or biological changes simply because observations have been made for longer. For example, systematic observations of both sea level and sea surface temperature were started around 1880 and are today complemented by observations from space that have high resolution in time and geographical coverage. The longest available records of plankton are from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR), a sampler that is towed behind many different merchant vessels, along fixed shipping routes. Sampling with the CPR was started in the North Sea in the 1950’ies and today a network covering the entire North Atlantic has been established. No other plankton time series of equivalent length and geographical coverage exist for the European Regional Seas. The primary physical impact of climate change in European regional seas is increased sea surface temperature. However, due to different geographical constraints, climate change is expected to impact the physical conditions differently in the European regional seas, and consequently biological impacts also vary depending on the region as demonstrated in the following three examples:North East Atlantic: Projections indicate that mean warming in the ocean will extend throughout the water column during the course of the 21st century (Meehl et al., 2007). Surface temperature changes have already resulted in an increased duration of the marine growing season and in northward movement of marine zooplankton. Some fish species are shifting their distributions northward in response to increased temperatures.Baltic Sea: Climate models predict a mean warming of 2-4°C in the sea-surface temperature in the 21st century, and both increasing run-off and decreasing frequency of Atlantic inflow patterns which will decrease salinity of the Baltic Sea. Consequently, sea-ice extent is expected to decrease by 50-80% over the same period (Graham et al. 2006) and stratification is expected to become stronger increasing the probability of a deficiency of oxygen (hypoxia) that kills marine life in the region. Changes in stratification are expected to impact commercially relevant regional cod fisheries because stratification appears to be an important component for the reproductive success of cod in the Baltic Sea.

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Mediterranean Sea: Temperature is projected to increase and run-off to the Mediterranean Sea to decrease. In contrast to the Baltic Sea, the combination of these two effects is not expected to greatly change stratification conditions because of the compensating effects of increasing temperature and increasing salinity in the density of sea water. Alien species invasion and survival in the Mediterranean Sea have been correlated to the general SST warming trend, causing replacement of local fauna with new species. Such changes not only impact local ecosystems, but also impact the activities of the international fishing fleet when commercial species are affected (Marine Board Position Paper, 2007)

Box 5.4.1: Ocean acidificationIn addition to increasing atmospheric temperature, greenhouse gasses (specifically CO2) also affect marine systems more directly. The global ocean is the primary storage medium for greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and the amount stored in the ocean depends on the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. CO2 is soluble in the ocean and during this process, carbon dioxide reacts with water to form carbonic acid which then dissociate into hydrogen ions (H+), bicarbonate ions (HCO3

-) and, to a lesser extent, carbonate ions (CO32-). The higher the

concentration of CO2 is in the atmosphere, the more CO2 that is dissolved in the ocean, and the more the concentration of H+ ions will increase which would cause a drop in the pH of sea water, causing it to become less alkaline (or more acidic). Since the industrial revolution pH has already decreased by 0.1 units and simulations for the next century are predicting further reduction of the pH from 0.3 to 0.5 units, depending on which IPCC scenario is adopted in the calculation (Orr et al., 2005, Caldeira and Wickett, 2005). The increased dissolved CO2 concentration will lower saturation levels of the carbonate minerals such as calcite, aragonite, and high-magnesium calcite, which means that the availability of materials used to form supporting skeletal structures in many major groups of marine organisms will decrease. The decrease in pH of oceans is viewed as particularly severe because ocean pH has been relatively stable for the past 300 million years (Caldeira and Wickett, 2003), it will take a very long time to reverse the decreasing trend, and it has the potential of fundamentally altering the lowest levels of the marine food-web with unpredictable consequences for higher trophic levels.

Time Ph Ph change SourcePre-industrial 8.2 0 Model

(Houghton et al., 1995)Present day (1994) 8.1 -0.1 Model

(GLODAP reference year, Hey et al., )

2050 8.0 - 0.2 Model (Orr et al. 2005)

2100 (based on IPCC scenario IS92a, SRES scenarios)

7.7-7.9 -0.3 – -0.5 Models (Orr et al. 2005,Caldeira and Wickett, 2005)

Average ocean surface pH values based on Houghton et al., 1995, Orr et al., 2005, and Caldeira and Wickett, 2005.

Implications for European SeasIn European Seas, the largest effects are expected in the Arctic where a scenario of the consequences of doubling the atmospheric CO2 concentration suggests the possibility of a complete undersaturation of first aragonite (by 2100) and later calcite (by 2150-2200) is expected to become the largest (Orr et al., 2005). Under these conditions, key marine organisms such as coccolithophores (a diatom), echinoderms (sea urchins), and cold water corals along the northwest European continental margin will have difficulties to build and maintain their external structure (Orr et al., 2005). These changes at the bottom of the food-web may have serious knock-on effects in all European marine ecosystems (Pearson et al., 1999).

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5.4.2 Sea level rise (SLR)

Key messages Global average sea level rose around 17 cm (1.7mm/year) during the last century. In Europe

sea-level change ranges from -0.3 mm/year to 2.8 mm/year. Recent results from satellites and tide-gauges indicated an accelerated average rate of global SLR of about 3.1mm/year in the previous 15 years. Projections for the end of the 21st century suggest an additional 60 cm SLR above the

current level, the upper end of the range of estimates suggesting up to 140 cm. Sea level rise can cause flooding, coastal erosion and the loss of flat and low-lying coastal

regions. It increases the likelihood of storm surges, enforces landward intrusion of salt water and endangers coastal ecosystems and wetlands. An additional 1.6 million people living in Europe’s coastal zones might experience coastal flooding by 2080.

Presentation of the main indicator:

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Figure 5.4.2.1: Sea level change at different European tide-gauge stations from 1896 to 2004 (post-glacial processes considered). Source: Novotny et al., 2007.

Figure 5.4.2.2: Trends in sea level 1870-2006Source: Church, J.A. and White, N.J. (2006). http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/trends-in-sea-level-1870-2006

Figure 5.4.2.3: Map of sea level variation trends in Europe (1992-2007), based on satellite altimeter data (Source: CLS; INGV; 2007)

RelevanceSea level rise (SLR) results from thermal expansion of the oceans (the increase in volume due to rising ocean water temperature) and from inflow of melt-water from glaciers and ice-sheets (in particular the Greenland and West-Antarctic ice sheets) due to increasing air temperature. Thus sea level rise is an important indicator of climate change, with great relevance in Europe for flooding, coastal erosion and the loss of flat coastal regions. Rising sea level increases the likelihood of storm surges, enforces landward intrusion of salt water and endangers coastal ecosystems and wetlands. Coastal areas in Europe often feature important natural ecosystems, productive economic sectors, and major urban centres. A higher flood risk increases the threat of loss of life and property as well as of damage to sea-dikes and infrastructure, and might lead to an increased loss of tourism, recreation and transportation functions (Nicholls et al., 2006; Nicholls et al. 2007; Devoy, 2007). Low-lying coastlines with high population densities and small tidal ranges will be most vulnerable to sea-level rise (Kundzewicz, 2001). Thus coastal flooding related to sea-level rise could affect a large population (Arnell, 2004, Nicholls, 2004). Because of the inertia of the climate system, climate change mitigation will not reduce these risks over the coming decades to any significant degree, but various options for adaptation exist.Furthermore, it is important to note that some models may stop at 2100, but SLR will not. Even if atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations would be stabilized, sea level will continue to rise for some hundreds of years due to the thermal expansion of the oceans and to the contribution of the melting Greenland and West-Antarctic ice sheets, which have the potential to contribute 7m sea level rise respectively. After 500 years, sea level rise from the thermal expansion of oceans may have reached only half its attainable level and the ice sheets will continue to melt. The global ice sheets have the potential to make the largest contribution to SLR, but they are also the greatest source of uncertainty.

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Past trendsTide-gauge based data as e.g. from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) show that long-term average sea level at European coasts has been changing regional differently at a rate of -0.3 mm/year up to 2.8 mm/year during the previous century (Fig.: 5.4.2.1). Global sea level rose in this time by an average of 1.7 mm/year (Church et al., 2006). Previous satellite and tide-gauge data-sets indicate an accelerated global trend in sea-level rise by about 3.1 mm/year (Fig.: 5.4.2.2) in the last 15 years (Nerem et al., 2006; Church et al., 2006; Rahmstorf et al., 2007). It is very likely that the observed trend in sea level rise over the past 100 years is mainly attributable to an increase in the volume of ocean water as a consequence of temperature rise, although inflow of water from melting glaciers and ice-sheets plays an increasing role (Tab.: 5.4.2.2). Satellite observations indicate a large spatial variability of SLR trends in the European seas (Fig.: 5.4.2.2; Tab.: 5.4.2.1). For instance in the Mediterranean Sea positive trends can be observed in the Levantine Sea while negative trends can be observed in the northern Ionian Sea . These local variations could be explained by variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), by inter-annual wind variability, by changes in global ocean circulation patterns, and by specific local structures of the circulation (e.g. gyres) (Demirov and Pinardi, 2002).

Table 5.4.2.1: Average in sea level rise in some European Seas (satellite observations; time period 1993-2006) (Source: CLS; INGV; 2007)European seas Sea level rise

[mm/year]North Atlantic (50°N to 70°N) 3.4Central North Atlantic (30°N to 50°N) 1.15Mediterranean Sea 1.5Black Sea 7.5

Table 5.4.2.2: Contribution of different processes to global sea level rise (time period 1993-2006) (Source: IPCC, 2007) Process Contribution to global sea level rise

[mm/year]Ocean thermal expansion 1.6 ± 0.5Melting of glaciers and ice caps 0.8±0.2Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet 0.2±0.1Melting of the Antarctic Ice sheet 0.2±0.4Unaccounted for 0.3Total global sea level rise 3.1± 0.4

Projections (future trends)According to the IPCC, it is likely that the observed trend of increased high sea levels will continue globally at least during the 21st century. Model projections based on the IPCC-SRES scenarios give a global mean SLR of 0.18 -0.59 m by 2100, with rates up to 3 times higher than those at the previous decade (Fig.:5.4.2.3; IPCC, 2007).

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Figure 5.4.2.4: Projected global average sea level rise (m) from 1990 to 2100 for the six SRES scenarios; Source: UNEP, 2007

In Europe, regional influences may result in SLR being up to 50% higher than these global estimates (Woodworth et al., 2005), where the impact of the NAO on winter sea levels adds an uncertainty of 0.1-0.2 m to these estimates (Hulme et al., 2002; Tsimplis et al. 2004). SLR projections for the Baltic and Arctic coasts based on SRES scenarios indicate an increased risk of flooding and coastal erosion after 2050 but always lower than the risk in the North Sea and in the Mediterranean (Johansson et al., 2004; Meier et al. 2004, 2006, Nicholls, 2004). The A1F1-scenario, which assumes a very high greenhouse gas emission from fossil fuel combustion, would lead to a greater impact of SLR in the Northern Mediterranean, as well as in Northern and Western Europe. Where it was highly unlikely that the populations in those coastal areas would experience flooding in 1990, up to 1.6 million people might experience coastal flooding each year by 2080 (Nicholls, 2004). Various adaptation options are available to reduce such risks. But there are limits to adaptation: Due to thermal inertia of the oceans sea level rise does not stop by 2100, not even if greenhouse gas concentrations would be stabilized. A very large SLR would result from the melting of the world’s major ice sheets at Greenland and the West Antarctic Peninsula, which have a SLR potential of about 13 m (UNEP, 2007).

Box: Long-term sea-level rise: insights since IPCC AR4

Observed sea level from 1990 onwards is near the upper end of the range projected in IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (Fig.: 5.4.2.4, Rahmstorf et al., 2007),. This indicates that one or more of the model contributions to SLR is underestimated and implies that SLR may be higher than projected by the IPCC: using a statistical model, a SLR of up to 1.4 m was recently estimated (Rahmstorf, 2007). In addition to the large uncertainty about the behaviour of the world’s major ice sheets, also ocean dynamics and the effect of gravity changes induced by melting of land based ice-masses (as e.g. the Greenland ice-sheet) can have a large effect (Katsman et al., 2007). A melting Greenland ice-sheet would result in a weakening of SLR in the Northern latitudes and in a strengthening of SLR in the tropics in the longer term.

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5.4.3 Sea Surface Temperature

Key Messages

Sea surface temperature (SST) is increasing at a faster rate in European seas than in the global oceans. The rate of increase is larger in the northern European seas and relatively smaller in the Mediterranean Sea.

In the past 25 years sea surface temperature in all European seas has been increasing at a rate that is roughly 10 times faster than the average over more than a century (high confidence).

The trend observed in the last 25 years is the largest ever measured in any previous 25 year period.

Presentation of the main indicatorTable 1: Summary of historical and recent sea surface temperature trends in the Global Ocean and the four European Regional Seas.Sea 1871-2006 annual rate

(past 136 years) [°C/yr]1982-2006 annual rate(past 25 years) [°C/yr]

Global Ocean 0.004 0.01

North Atlantic Ocean 0.002 0.03

Baltic Sea 0.006 0.06

North Sea 0.004 0.05

Mediterranean Sea 0.004 0.03

Black Sea 0.003 0.03

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Figure 5.4.3.1: Annual average SST difference from the 1982-2006 average in different seas. Panel a: Global Ocean (red), North Atlantic (yellow), North Sea (Cyan), Baltic Sea (magenta). Panel b: Global Ocean (red), Black Sea (black), Mediterranean Sea (blue). Source: Appendix 1 and INGV, 2007

Figure 5.4.3.2. Spatial distribution of linear trend of the last 25 years (1982-2006) for the

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European Seas as calculated from HADISST1 dataset. The units are oC/yr. Source: INGV, 2007.

Relevance Changes in sea surface temperatures of the global ocean and the regional seas of Europe are consistent with the changes in atmospheric temperature (Levitus, 2000, Rayner, 2006). The increased surface temperature of the North Atlantic has impacts upon the atmospheric circulation, and thus impacts climate in Western Europe. There is also an accumulating body of evidence suggesting that many marine ecosystems, both physically and biologically are responding to changes in regional climate caused predominantly by the warming of air and SST (Halpern et al., 2008).

Variations in SST has for example been linked to the NAO-index, (see Section 5.2 in this report) (Frankignoul and Kestenare, 2005). The general atmospheric warming is likely to influence the Atlantic Ocean circulation system that carries warm upper waters north and returns cold deep waters south also known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Marshall et al., 2001) because it will cause increased freshening and warming in the subpolar seas. Observations indicate that there has indeed been a freshening of the North Atlantic (Curry and Mauritzen, 2005) and thus possibly a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, although no observations are available to document this.

Past trendsIn the European regional seas the SST changes are stronger than in the global oceans (Table 1). The strongest trend in the last 25 years is in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, while the rates are lower in the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea. The regional seas experienced warming trends that are up to six times larger than the in global oceans in the past 25 years. These changes have not been observed in any other 25-year period since systematic observations started more than a century ago (Fig. 5.4.3.1).

The spatial distribution of trend over the European seas is shown in Fig. 5.4.3.2. It shows that the positive temperature trend is more pronounced in the North Sea, Baltic Sea, the area south of the Denmark Strait, the eastern part of the Mediterranean, and the Black Sea. Absolute maxima are located in the North Atlantic around 50° N, in the North Sea and Baltic Sea with values over 0.06-0.07 °C/yr. Negative trends are detected in the Greenland Sea. Here, the estimates also depend on the ice extent.

Projections IPCC (2007) reports global-scale SST patterns for the SRES-A1B scenario for the time periods 2011-2030, 2046-2065, and 2080-2099. In these scenarios, the ocean warming evolves more slowly than the warming of the atmosphere. Initially ocean warming will be greatest in the upper 100 meters of the ocean (in the surface mixed layer), but later in the 21st-century temperature will also increase at a faster rate in the deep ocean (IPCC, 2007; Watterson, 2003; Stouffer, 2004).

The scenario projects ocean warming to be relatively large in the Arctic and along the equator in the eastern Pacific, with less warming over the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean

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(e.g., Xu et al., 2005). Enhanced oceanic warming along the equator is also evident, and can be associated with oceanic heat flux changes (Watterson, 2003) and temperature changes in the atmosphere (Liu et al., 2005). The projection of SST indicators is not feasible for the different geographical regions across Europe because the spatial resolution of the coupled ocean-climate models is not high enough to evaluate trends on the European regional sea scale

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5.4.4 Marine Phenology

Key Messages Many marine organisms in the European seas now appear earlier in their seasonal

cycles than in the past, i.e. they have changed their phenology as a consequence of increased sea surface temperatures. For example, some species have moved forward in their seasonal cycle by 4-6 weeks.

These changes in the timing of seasonal cycles have important consequences foron the way organisms within an ecosystem interact and ultimately foron the structure and efficiency of marine food-webs.

The consequences of changed marine phenology are can be severe for the marine ecosystem and include with medium confidence:• Decoupling of species relationships and changes to food-web structures. • To worsen the decline in North Sea cod stocks created by over-fishing.• Changes to other fish populations leading to decline in seabird populations.

Genetic adaptations within species populations may be required to cope with these changes but these may be hampered because the current pace of climate warming is too fast for genetic adaptations to take place.

Presentation of the main indicator(s)

Figure 5.4.4.1: a. Year vs. month plot of decapod abundance in the central North Sea highlighting the mean seasonal peak in abundance. Data collected by the continuous Plankton Recorder Survey (1950-2005). b. The month of seasonal peak of decapod larvae for each year 1958-2005 (green line) plotted with sea surface temperature red line). Decapod larvae

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data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey for the central North Sea. Sea surface temperature from the Hadley Centre of the UK met office (HadISST).

RelevanceOne of the key indicators of climate change impacts on biological populations is phenology change. Phenology is the study of annually recurring life-cycle events such as the timing of migrations and flowering of plants. In the marine environment such phenology indicators would include the timing of the spring phytoplankton bloom and the peak in the abundance of other marine organisms such as the earlier appearance of dinoflagellates associated with summer stratified conditions.

One of the ways synchrony between predator and prey can be measured is by studying phenology changes. In the North Sea, many species are moving forward in the season (i.e. they are appearing earlier from their normal seasonal cycles) while other species are not moving forward. This has led to a decoupling of species relationships and changes to food-web structures (Edwards & Richardson, 2004). These changes in plankton (apart from over fishing) have been strongly implicated in exacerbating the decline in North Sea cod stocks (Beaugrand et al. 2003) and changes to other fish populations leading to changes in seabirds (Frederiksen et al. 2006).

The southern North Sea has been identified as being particular vulnerable to phenology changes (Edwards, Woo & Richardson, in prep). Phenology changes have been related to the degree of and speed of regional climate change. For example, the southern North Sea is warming faster than other regions in the North East Atlantic and here is where phenological movement has been found to be much more pronounced. It is uncertain to what extent species will adapt to the changes.

Past trends In the North Sea, work on pelagic phenology has shown that plankton communities, including fish larvae, are very sensitive to regional climate warming with the response to warming varying between trophic levels and functional groups. The ability and speed with which fish and planktonic communities adapt to regional climate warming is not yet known. In other European regional areas, however, long-term data on marine phenology changes are quite sparse. According to some preliminary studies, there has also been some phenological movement in certain copepod species in the Mediterranean Sea over the last decade (Juan-Carlos Molinero pers. comm).

Due to the sensitivity of the physiological development of plankton to temperature, decapod larvae (Lindley, 1987) were selected as a representative of phenological changes in shelf sea environments. The zooplankton growing season indicator shows the annual peak seasonal abundance ‘centre of gravity index’ of decapod larvae from 1958–2005 in the central North Sea (i.e the peak in seasonal appearance). It is clearly visible that there is a major trend towards an earlier seasonal peak (Figure 1a). In particular, since 1988, with the exception of 1996 (a negative NAO year), the seasonal development of decapod larvae has occurred much earlier than the long-term average (baseline mean: 1958–2005) which in the 1990’ies has been up to 4-5 weeks earlier than the long-term mean. This trend towards an earlier seasonal appearance of meroplanktonic larvae during the last decade is highly correlated to Sea Surface Temperature (Figure 1b).

Projections Projections of how individual species behave to future climate change have not yet been made. Using niche models and species thermal envelopes in combination with available climate change scenarios, what may happen to certain species over the coming decades could be analysed in the future. But even without detailed scenarios being available, it is very likely that phenological changes will continue to occur as climate warming continues to accelerate. However, there is a finite window in which species can move their seasonal cycles in response to climate warming. What is currently much less certain is to what degree genetic

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adaptations within species populations can cope with these changes and whether the current pace of climate warming is too fast for genetic adaptations to take place.

Box 5.4.3 Phytoplankton biomass and growing seasonOver the past fifteen years, considerable increase in phytoplankton biomass and an extension of its growing season has occurred in the North Sea and eastern North Atlantic. This change is closely related to changes in sea surface temperature and the NAO index.The oceans are thought to absorb one third (approximately 2 Gt C y-1) of anthropogenic emissions of CO2 because phytoplankton use CO2 for their photosynthesis. These microscopic algae are responsible for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through photosynthesis and transferring the carbon to other trophic levels. Phytoplankton are also the lowest trophic level of the marine food-web and thus, any change has consequences for all other trophic levels (e.g. zoo-plankton, fish, seabirds) through bottom-up control. Increased sea surface temperature has been linked to extending growing season in the North Sea (see example below) but because phytoplankton growth is also regulated by nutrient and light availability, it is an area of active research to identify exactly how climate change will impact phytoplankton growth in other parts of Europe. According to PCI time series (Figure 5.4.4.2) there has been a considerable increase in phytoplankton biomass over the last decade in certain areas of the north-east Atlantic and North Sea. Particularly, an increase in biomass is observed after the mid-1980s in the North Sea and west of Ireland (Reid et al., 1998; Edwards et al., 2001). In contrast, a decrease in phytoplankton biomass was detected in the area north-west of the European Shelf. The mechanisms for this change remains poorly understood but the different regional responses can be partly explained by variations in NAO-index and in sea surface temperature. The NAO-index has positive correlations with SST and phytoplankton biomass in the North and to the west of Ireland, and negative correlations with SST and phytoplankton biomass north-west of the European Shelf (Edwards et al.,2001).

Figure 5.4.4.2: Change in color index since the 1950’ies. A. Year vs. month plot of color-index change in the southern North Sea. B. Geographical distribution of changes in average annual

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color-index from the 1950’ies until 2000s. Both figures are based on data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder.

5.4.5 Northward movement of marine species

Key Messages Increase in regional sea temperatures has triggered a major northward movement of

warmer water plankton in the north-east Atlantic and a similar retreat of colder water plankton to the north. This northerly movement is about10° latitude (1100 km) over the past 40 years, and has appeared to have accelerated since 2000.This will have an impact on distribution of fish in that region.

Many species of fish and plankton have shifted their distributions northward. Sub-tropical species occur with increasing frequency in European waters and sub-arctic species are receding northwards. The rate of north-ward movement of a particular species, the sailfin dory, has been estimated at about 50 km/year.

Changes in the geographical distribution of some species of fish have been observed and they may affect the management of fisheries. Fisheries regulations in the EU include allocations of quotas based on historic catch patterns, and these may need to be revised.

Presentation of the main indicator(s)

Figure 5.4.5.1: Northward movement of zooplankton based on CPR between two time periods (1958-1981) and (1982-1999). The northward movement of the warm-water species (warm-temperate pseudo-oceanic species) is associated with a decrease in the mean number of cold water species (subarctic species). Note also the rapid northward movement along the continental shelf edge (approx. 1000 km northward movement).

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Figure 5.4.5.2: Map showing recordings of tropical fish and warm-water copepods in different years. (This figure is a template/placeholder only- a more readable version will be compiled)

RelevanceMany species of fish and plankton have shifted their distribution northward and sub-tropical species occur with increasing frequency in European waters, changing the composition of local and regional marine ecosystems in a major way (Brander et al., 2003; Beare et al., 2004; Beare et al., 2005; Perry et al., 2005; Stebbing et al., 2002).

The kinds of fish which are available for human consumption are not necessarily affected by the distribution changes shown above, because fish are often transported long distances from where they are caught to where they are marketed. However, people eating locally caught fish may notice changes in the species they catch or buy. Changes in distribution may affect the management of fisheries. Fisheries regulations in the EU include allocations of quotas based on historic catch patterns, and these may be need to be revised.

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In a few situations e.g. early retreat of sea ice in Arctic areas the effect of climate change may be to increase fish catches (ACIA, 2005), but in general it is not possible to predict whether northward shifts in distribution will have a positive or a negative effect on total fisheries production (Brander, 2007).

Past trendsThe increase in regional sea temperatures has triggered a major re-organisation in zooplankton species composition and biodiversity over the whole North Atlantic basin (Beaugrand et al. 2002), shown in Figure 5.4.5.1. During the last 40 years there has been a northerly movement of warmer water plankton by 10° latitude in the north-east Atlantic and a similar retreat of colder water plankton to the north. This northerly movement has continued over the last few years and has appeared to have accelerated since 2000. The movement is particularly pronounced along the European continental shelf edge and has been associated with the Shelf Edge Current running north. Also the marine environment is generally thought to have much fewer barriers to dispersal than terrestrial systems.

Some clear, well documented examples of fish species shifts are shown in Figure 5.4.6.2. The sailfin dory (Zenopsis conchifer) was first recorded in European waters off the coast of Portugal at 38oN in 1966 and has since been recorded progressively further north, to north of 55oN by the early 1990’s (Quero et al., 1998). It is probably transported northward in the continental slope current and the rate of northward shift in distribution for this species is over 50 km per year. Other species which have become much more common further north, such as sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax), red mullet (Mullus surmulletus) and European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) are probably now able to overwinter and establish breeding populations Brander et al., 2003).

The ratio of catches of two common Pleuronectiform flatfish species – European plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) and Common sole (Solea solea) can be used as an indicator showing the increase in relative abundance of a warm-water vs. a cold-water species of flatfish (Figure 5.4.6.3).This is a change in their distribution, as sole and other warm-water species become relatively more abundant in northerly areas, while plaice and other cold-water species become rare in southerly areas (Brander et al. 2003). These changes are due to changes in birth and death rates. Some species of fish may also be migrating northward, or into deeper (cooler) water, as temperatures rise. Climate is only one of many factors which affect distribution and abundance, however the consistency of the response of this particular indicator to temperature, both within particular areas (i.e. time trend) and across all areas (i.e. geographic trend) suggest that the causal relationship is quite strong.Other factors affecting abundance and distribution include fishing, biological interactions, salinity, oxygen, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and pollution. In some cases changes in distribution are probably due to geographic patterns of fishing and not to climate effects. However, an index based on ratios of catches minimises the influence of fishing when fishing acts on both species in a similar way, as is the case with these flatfish, which are caught in the same kinds of gear and often in the same fishing operations.

ProjectionsScenario projections of future movements of marine species have not yet been made. The principal uncertainty in making projections of fish distribution changes over the next 20-50 years arise from the projections of ocean climate. The rate of warming of SST in European waters shown in the Figure (Section 5.4.3) is more than twice the global rate. Part of the reason for this may be the effect of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which is superimposed on the global trend. If this multidecadal component has been responsible for the high regional rate of warming and if it moves into a declining phase, then the temperature in European waters may change at a much slower rate over the next decade or two, before accelerating again. This will affect the northward movement of marine species.

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Box 5.3.4 Past and future changes in fish and plankton distribution and abundance in the BalticThe Baltic aquatic ecosystems are species-poor and are balanced between predominantly marine species in the western parts near the Skaggerak and mainly brackish and freshwater species in the northern and eastern parts. Quite a small reduction in the salinity, driven by climate induced changes in precipitation and inflow from the North Sea already appears to tip the balance and change the composition of the Baltic biota. The effects of climate on distribution of fish and plankton in the Baltic are thus due mainly to changes in salinity and also oxygen, rather than temperature. They do not fit into the general pattern of northward shift due to temperature, although temperature rise will interact with oxygen limitation by increasing the metabolic demand for oxygen. Salinity in the Baltic has decreased steadily since the mid 1980’s due to increased freshwater input (precipitation) and a reduction in the frequency of inflow events through the Kattegat, which bring in more saline, oxygenated water. Of the three major fished species, cod (Gadus morhua), herring (Clupea harengus) and sprat (Sprattus sprattus), cod is particularly sensitive to reduced salinity - at levels below 11 the eggs lose their buoyancy and the sperm become inactive. The major zooplankton prey species for cod lavae Pseudocalanus acuspes also decline when salinities are low.Projections for future ocean climate of the Baltic are for continuing increases precipitation and decreases in inflow from the Skaggerak, therefore the distribution and abundance of cod and other marine species is likely to continue to diminish. Their position in the ecosystem may be taken over by more brackish and freshwater species, such as whitefish, pikeperch and perch (MacKenzie et al., 2007).

Appendix 1The SST anomalies and linear trends have been calculated for different datasets:

a) HADISST1 dataset (1° horizontal resolution) for the Global Ocean and all the regional seas from 1871-2006. It is one of the Hadley Centre (UK) global monthly data sets of sea ice concentration and SST (Rayner et al., 2003) SST anomalies were calculated with respect to 1982-2006 mean;

b) MOON SST dataset (1/16 ° horizontal resolution) for the Mediterranean Sea from 1985-2006. The MOON dataset is based upon the longest time series of infrared satellite observations (AVHRR) starting from the beginning of the 80’s. SST anomalies were calculated subtracting the 1985-2006 MOON dataset mean;

c) BSH SST for the Baltic Sea (BSH-Baltic-Sea, 20 Km horizontal resolution) from 1990-2006 derived from BSH’s weekly SST analyses (Loewe et al. 2006). SST anomalies were calculated with respect to the 1990-2006 mean;

d) BSH SST for the North Sea (BSH-North-Sea 20 Km horizontal resolution) produced with the satellite infrared observations (AVHRR) for the period 1990-2006. SST anomalies were calculated with respect to the 1982-2006 mean.

HADISST1 dataset has been used for the global ocean and for the centennial trend estimates (1871-2006). The regional datasets where used for the corresponding regional seas when available because of their higher horizontal resolution.

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5.5 Terrestrial ecosystems, biodiversity

5.5.1 Introduction

Climate (change) is an important driving force for the functioning and distribution of natural systems (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003). Europe’s biodiversity has adapted repeatedly to glacial and inter-glacial periods in the past, with many species recolonising the continent from ancient refugia. However, Europe’s landscapes are now so profoundly modified and fragmented by human activity that, during the current period of more rapid climate change, species’ movement is being severely restricted. Local and regional extinctions are therefore likely (McKinney and Lockwood, 1999). Species at greatest threat are specialists, species at the top of the food chain, species that are attitudinally restricted, and species with northerly distributions that are at the southern edge of their ranges; those with poor dispersal abilities are especially vulnerable.

Biodiversity contributes to ecosystem functioning and the maintenance of ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling, carbon storage, regulation of hydrology and climate, pollination, natural pest regulation, and quality of life (IPCC, 2007; Diaz et al., 2006). Thus impoverishment of Europe’s flora and fauna affects the delivery of ecosystems services with potentially catastrophic consequences (Lovejoy and Hannah, 2005).

Approximately 60% of the world’s ecosystems that have been evaluated are currently utilised unsustainably and are showing increasing signs of degradation (Reid et al., 2005). This alone is causing widespread biodiversity loss. It is likely that this loss will be accelerated by climate change. Between one fifth and one third of species in Europe are at increased risk of extinction if global mean temperatures rise more than 2 to 3ºC above pre-industrial levels (Lovejoy and Hannah, 2005; IPCC, 2007); the ability of many species to adapt naturally (their resilience) will be exceeded by a combination of climate change and other drivers of change, particularly land-use change and over-exploitation of natural habitats. Therefore, reducing these other stresses can enhance the adaptive capacity of ecosystems to climate change (IPCC, 2007). Furthermore, new areas for conservation are needed, together with measures to facilitate species movement in fragmented landscapes. As such, efforts are needed to boost the robustness of the European ecological network of Natura 2000 sites, including more widespread implementation of Article 10 of the Habitats Directive (which relates to the network’s coherence).

This subchapter outlines the impacts of climate change on biodiversity by showing both observed and projected changes in the distribution and phenology of plants and animals, and the implications for communities.

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5.5.2 Distribution of plant species

Key Messages • Climate change, in particular milder winters, is responsible for observed

northward and uphill distribution shifts of many European plant species.• Mountain ecosystems in many parts of Europe are changing as cold adapted

species are driven out of their ranges and pioneer species expand uphill. • By the late 21st Century, distributions of European plant species are projected

to have shifted several hundred kilometres to the north and 60% of mountain plant species may face extinction (high confidence). The rate of change will exceed the ability of many species to adapt.

Presentation of the main indicator

Figure 5.5.2.1. Change in species richness on Swiss Alpine mountain summits. As pioneer species expand uphill, cold-adapted species are being driven out of their distribution ranges. Source: Walther, Beissner and Burga, 2005Caption: Legend: × = 1900s; = 1980s; ● = 2003; open symbols (P. Trovat, P. ◆Languard) indicate a (temporary) decrease in species number.

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Figure 5.5.2.2. Expansion of holly (Ilex aquifolium)- a climate limited species. Maps show the 0° C January isoline pre-1970 and updated for 1981-2000. Source: Walther, Berger and Sykes, 2005 (a) Former range of I. aquifolium (dark grey shading) based on Enquist (1924) and Meusel et al. (1965); isoline based on Walter & Straka (1970); symbols based on Iversen (1944). (b) Modelled range of I. aquifolium in the recent past (1931–60: vertical shading); isoline as in (a). (c) Former range of I. aquifolium (dark grey shading) as in (a); isoline updated for 1981–2000 based on Mitchell et al. (2004). (d) Former range of I. aquifolium (dark grey shading) complemented with the simulated species’ distribution under a moderate climate change based on 1981–2000 climate data (diagonal shading); isoline as in (c); triangles represent locations with new actual occurrences of I. aquifolium. (NB symbol legend taken from Figure 2 in same publication).

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Relevance The rate of climate change in Europe is likely to exceed the adaptive capacity of some wild plant species (IPCC, 2007), whilst others are expected to benefit from changing environmental conditions (e.g. Sobrino Vesperinas et al., 2001). Consequently, completely new assemblages of plants are appearing and the ecological implications of these, including the emergence of invasive non-native species, are unpredictable. The threat of extinction of species at the edge of their geographical ranges – particularly poorly dispersing endemics – will be greatly increased, with challenging consequences for their long-term conservation (Gitay et al., 2002). Furthermore, changes in plant composition within ecosystems can affect ecosystem services such as agricultural and forest production, nature conservation, water purification and climate regulation.

The adaptive capacity of species is linked to genetic diversity. In some parts of Europe, including the Iberian Peninsula, Italy and the Balkans, the genetic diversity of plants is relatively high, as many species have persisted in these regions since glacial times. Reducing the impacts of climate change and other anthropogenic pressures will be particularly important in conserving these sensitive and valuable relic populations.

Past trends Warmer temperatures in the last 30 years have significantly influenced seasonal patterns. As evidenced during glacial and inter-glacial periods, the predominant adaptive response of climate-limited plant species has been to shift distribution, resulting in altitudinal and poleward movements. One such climate limited species is holly (Ilex aquifolium), which has expanded in southern Scandinavia in a manner consistent and synchronous with recorded regional climate changes, linked in particular with increasing winter temperatures (Walther, Berger and Sykes, 2005).

There has also been a general increase in mountain summit vegetation during the 20th Century (Figure 5.5.2.1). The uphill shift of Alpine plants showed an accelerating trend that is likely to be linked with the extraordinarily warm conditions of the 1990s (Walther, Beissner and Burga, 2005). Evidence also emerged of warming-induced declines as cold-adapted species are driven out of their distribution ranges by the uphill expansion of pioneer species. In effect, Europe’s summit region is shrinking as characteristic vegetation is displaced and as tree lines rise. In the Swedish Scandes, for example, the tree line of the Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) rose by 150-200 metres during the past century as warmer winters significantly lowered mortality and increased rates of establishment. Observations from other continents suggest that uphill tree line migration is a global phenomenon (Kullman, 2006, 2007). This could become the major threat to biodiversity in high mountains (Pauli et al., 2007).

Projections Projections show that, by the late 21st Century, the potential range of European plant species may shift several hundred kilometres in a northerly direction. This is several times faster than past rates as estimated from the Quaternary record or from historical data (Huntley, 2007).

Modelling of late 21st Century distributions of 1350 European plant species under a range of scenarios concluded that more than half could become threatened by 2080,

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with high risks of extinction. The greatest changes were projected for the Mediterranean and Euro-Siberian regions and many mountain regions (Thuiller et al., 2005). Mountain communities may face up to a 60% loss of plant species under high emission scenarios, as there are no climate adaptation options for the characteristic vegetation of these regions (IPCC, 2007). Bakkenes et al. (2006) obtained similar results from modelling stable areas of plant species distribution for 2100 under different climate change scenarios (Figure 5.5.2.3.). This study suggests that 10-50% of plant species in European countries are likely to disappear from their current location in the absence of climate mitigation. Again, species in southeastern and southwestern Europe are projected to be worst affected. For Europe as a whole, about 1% of plant species may go extinct because they no longer have a suitable climate niche. This figure will be higher if movement is restricted or if they are out-competed by invasive species.

Figure 5.5.2.3. Projected changes in plant species (left: number of species considered; middle: %stable fraction in 2050; right: %stable fraction in 2050). Source:Based on Bakkenes et al., 2006 Caption: Results for stable area per grid cell, using the EuroMove model with HadCM2 A2 climate scenario.

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Figure 5.5.2.4: Total number of species projected to have potentially suitable climate space within each European region over time, under different scenarios.Source: Berry et al., 2007Caption: In the BRANCH project, bioclimatic modelling was applied to 389 species (both plants and animals) encompassing a range of dominant and threatened taxa found in Europe. HA2: HadCM3 A2 scenario; HB1: HadCM3 B1 scenario; PCM: Parallel Climate Model A2 scenario.

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5.5.3 Plant phenology

Key Messages • The timing of seasonal events in plants is changing across Europe; 78% of leaf

unfolding and flowering records show advancing trends and only 3% significant delays. Between 1971 and 2000, the average advance of spring and summer was 2.5 days per decade

• As a consequence of climate-induced changes in plant phenology, the pollen season starts on average 10 days earlier and is longer than 50 years ago.

• Advancing trends in seasonal events are set to continue as climate warming increases in the years and decades to come.

Presentation of the main indicator

Figure 5.5.3.1. Phenological sensitivity to temperature changes. In a study of 254 national records across nine countries, most phenological changes correlated significantly with mean monthly temperatures of the previous two months. The earlier a spring event occurred, the stronger the effect of temperature. Caption: Countries included: Austria, Belarus/northern Russia, Estonia, Czech Republic, Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Switzerland, Ukraine/ southern Russia. Phenophase groups included: farmers’ activities (b0), spring and summer with different leafing, shooting and flowering phases (b1), autumn fruit ripening (b2) and leaf colouring of deciduous trees in fall (b3). Source: Menzel et al. (2006a)

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Figure 5.5.3.2. Oak (Quercus sp) leafing date in Surrey (1950-2005).Source: Nature’s Calendar UK, http://www.naturescalendar.org/uk/climate+change/past.htm

Relevance Phenology is the study of changes in the timing of seasonal events, such as flowering, migration and hibernation. Some phenological responses are triggered principally by temperature, while others are more responsive to day length (Menzel et al., 2006a, figure 5.5.3.1). Changes in phenology are linked with the growing season and affect ecosystem functioning and productivity. Farming, gardening and forestry, as well as wildlife, are affected: the timing of tilling, sowing and harvesting require adjustments, and fruit is ripening earlier due to warmer summers (Menzel et al., 2006).

Changes in flowering have implications for the timing and intensity of the pollen season; this is showing an advancing trend as many species start to flower earlier. Allied to this, the concentration of pollen in the air is increasing (Nordic Council, 2005).

Past trends There is a clear signal across Europe of changing phenology over the past decades (Parmesan & Yohe, 2003; Root et al., 2003; Menzel et al., 2006a), although early phenological events (i.e. spring) are more variable than later events (Menzel et al., 2006b). For example:

78% of all leaf unfolding, flowering and fruiting records across Europe show an advancing trend and only 3% significant delays. The average advance of spring/summer phenological events is occurring at a rate of 2.5 days per decade (Menzel et al., 2006a).

The pollen season starts on average 10 days earlier and is of longer duration than 50 years ago.

In Britain, the first flowering date for 385 plant species has advanced by 4.5 days on average during the past decade in comparison with the previous four decades (Fitter and Fitter, 2002); oak leafing has advanced three weeks in the last 50 years (DEFRA, 2007) (Figure 5.5.3.2).

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In the Arctic environment, rapid climate-induced advancement of spring phenomena (e.g. flowering, egg laying) has been observed during the last 10 years. The strong responses of Arctic ecosystems and large variability within species illustrate how easily biological interactions can be disrupted by climate change (Høye et al., 2007).

ProjectionsPhenological changes will alter growing seasons, ecosystem production, population-level interactions and community dynamics (Fitter and Fitter, 2002). Different species show different phenological responses; for example, annuals and insect-pollinated species are more likely to flower early than perennials and wind-pollinated species (Fitter and Fitter, 2002). Ecological research is investigating these different response thresholds to better understand what the wider effects might be.

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5.5.4 Distribution of animal species

Key Messages• A combination of the rate of climate change and the obstacles to adaptive

movement may lead to a progressive decline in biodiversity in Europe. This has challenging consequences for current conservation practices and effective responses are likely to be costly.

• Europe’s fauna is moving northwards and uphill in response to climate change. Next to a farmland effect, there is a clear and strong signal of climatic change on European bird populations.

• Observed rates of distribution change are not keeping pace with changing climate. In Britain, for example, range boundary adjustments of butterflies are lagging behind temperature changes.

• Suitable climatic conditions for Europe’s breeding birds are projected to shift nearly 550 km northeast by the end of the century, with the average range size shrinking by 20 %. Projections analysing 120 native European mammals suggest that up to 9% (assuming no migration) risk extinction during the 21st Century.

Presentation of the main indicator(s)

Figure 5.5.4.1. Latitudinal shifts in northern range margins in Britain for 16 taxonomic groups of animal species over the past 40 years.Source: Hickling et al., 2006Caption: Results are given for three levels of data sub-sampling (recorded, blue; well-recorded, yellow; heavily recorded, red). Only species occupying more than twenty 10km grid squares were included in the analysis.

RelevanceThe northward shift in distribution of animal species has a range of potential consequences for agriculture and health, as well as biodiversity and the conservation

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of resident species (Sparks et al., 2007). Warmer conditions, particularly warmers winters, are allowing the establishment of new pest species such as the European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis), American bollworm (Heliothis armigera), gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) and some migratory moths and butterflies (Miroslav et al., 2005). Health risks associated with vector-borne diseases are linked to the invasions of species such as ticks and mosquitoes (Box 1, section 5.9).

Past trendsThe northwards and uphill movement of a wide variety of animal species has been observed over recent decades across Europe and this has been attributed to climate change. However, distribution changes are not only taking place in the context of climate warming, but are also triggered by land-use and other environmental changes. For example, three amphibian and reptile species at the northwestern edge of their ranges in Britain should have benefited from recent warming. Instead, their distributions have collapsed southwards due to fragmentation, with each species surviving in remnant populations restricted to only a small fraction of their former range.

In a study of 57 non-migratory European butterflies, 36 had shifted their ranges to the north by 35–240 km and only two species had shifted to the south (Parmesan et al., 1999). The sooty copper (Heodes tityrus), for example, had spread north from Catalonia to the Pyrenees and by 2006 had established breeding populations on the Baltic coast (Parmesan et al., 1999).

A recent study of 122 terrestrial bird species indicated that, from around 1985, climatic changes have influenced population trends across Europe (Gregory et al., 2008), with impacts becoming stronger through time. The study shows that 30 species have generally increased its population because of climate warming, and 92 have declined.

Box 1: the spread of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus)The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is a vector for 22 viruses, including West Nile, dengue and yellow fever. In August 2007, the mosquito was implicated in the first European outbreak of chikungunya, a relative of dengue fever normally found around the Indian Ocean. Over 100 residents of the Italian region of Castiglione di Cervia were affected by symptoms of high fever, exhaustion and excruciating bone pain that were eventually traced to this tropical disease.

Twenty years ago, A. albopictus was unknown in Europe, mainland Africa and the Americas, but it has since extended its geographic range extensively and rapidly. The first report of the mosquito in Europe was from Albania in 1979, followed by Italy in 1990. It has subsequently spread to the Americas, some Pacific islands, Australia, Africa and other parts of Europe. This was primarily through the international trade in new and used tyres that contained eggs and/or larvae of the mosquito. However, climate change is also a factor: studies of cold hardiness and distributional data from Asia and North America indicate that the natural northerly limits of the species are set by the -5°C cold month isotherm. As Europe’s winters become warmer, Britain, Ireland and the Atlantic and Channel coasts of France will become susceptible to colonisation by the mosquito.

Sources:

Ramsdale and Snow, 2000; http://www.uel.ac.uk/mosquito/issue4/climatechange.htm

http://www.ehj-online.com/archive/2000/november/november3.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/23/world/europe/23virus.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&ei=5088&en=e70cb7bda0bd53ca&ex=1357275600&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

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In Britain, out of a total of 329 animal species analysed over the last 25 years, 275 shifted their range margins northwards, 52 shifted southwards, and two did not move (UKCIP, 2005; Hickling et al., 2006); there was an average northward shift across all species of 31–60km (Figure 5.5.4.1). Comparable findings were obtained with respect to elevation shifts. However, many species, including butterflies, are failing to shift their ranges as quickly as might be expected under the current rate of climate change (Warren et al., 2001).

In Germany, the scarlet darter dragonfly (Crocothemis erythraea) (c.f. Subchapter 5.8) has spread from south to north, paralleling observed changes in climate. Only a few decades ago, the species was rare even in southern Germany, but now it is found in every federal state. Northward expansions of this species and other southern species have also been recorded in other countries (Ott, 2007). Similarly, the spread of the comma butterfly in the Netherlands has been linked to recent climate change patterns (Fig. 5.5.4.2).

The uphill movement of animal species can bring problems for endemic species. For example, the habitat of 16 mountain-restricted butterflies in Spain has been reduced by about one third over the last 30 years; lower elevation limits have risen on average by 212 metres – comparable with a 1.3ºC rise in mean annual temperature (Wilson et al., 2005).

Figure 5.5.4.2. The recorded occurrence of the comma butterfly (Polygonia c-album) in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2000. Photo source: Saxifraga-Frits Bink. Map source: Dutch Butterfly Conservation, processed by Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency for the Environmental Data Compendium

ProjectionsProjections indicate that the observed northward and uphill movement of many animal species will continue this century. Widespread species may become less vulnerable, while threatened endemic species – already under pressure- will be at greatest risk, although there will be spatial variation (Levinsky et al., 2007).

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Reptile and amphibian species could, potentially, expand their ranges as northward warming creates new opportunities for colonisation (IPCC, 2007). However, limited dispersal ability is very likely to reduce the ranges of many reptiles and amphibians (Hickling et al., 2006; Araújo et al., 2006). Species are projected to be most vulnerable in the Iberian Peninsula and parts of Italy (Fig. 5.5.4.3).

A study of 120 native terrestrial mammals projected that species richness is likely to reduce dramatically this century in the Mediterranean region, but increase towards the northeast and in mountainous areas such as the Alps and Pyrenees. Under a 3˚C climate warming scenario (above pre-industrial levels), the ranges of European breeding birds are projected to shift by the end of the 21st Century by about 550 km to the northeast. The projected average range will be 20% smaller than current range and range overlap will be around 40%. Arctic, sub-Arctic, and some Iberian species are projected to suffer the greatest potential range losses (Huntley et al., 2008).

In polar regions, projected reductions in sea ice will drastically reduce habitat for polar bears, seals and other ice-dependent species (IPCC, 2007). In addition to climate change, these top predators are also affected by declining fish stocks.

Figure 5.5.4.3. Potential changes in climate space of reptiles and amphibians in 2050.Source: Araújo et al., 2006. Maps: CBD and MNP, 2007 Caption: Projected data based on the GLM map using the HadCM3 A2 scenario for the 2050s are compared with the current situation (left: current number of species; right: percentage of stable species).

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5.5.5 Animal phenology

Key Messages

• Climatic warming has caused spring advancement in the life cycles of most animal groups studied. Observed trends include earlier frog breeding, bird nesting and the arrival of migrant birds and butterflies.

• Breeding seasons are lengthening, allowing extra generations of temperature-sensitive insects such as butterflies and dragonflies to breed during the year.

• Advancement is particularly strong and rapid in the high Arctic. The date of snowmelt has advanced by on average 14.6 days since the mid 1990s, and strong and rapid advancement of spring events across species has been documented.

• Advancing trends in seasonal events are set to continue as climate warming increases in the years and decades to come.

Presentation of the main indicator(s)

Figure 5.5.5.1. Changes in egg laying dates of the flycatcher across Europe. Source: Both et al., (2004)Caption: Colours show the trend in temperature: blue, trend towards colder springs; yellow, mild warming (trend between 0 and 0.08 C yr-1); red, strong warming (greater than 0.08 C yr-1). Filled symbols: flycatcher populations with a significant advancement of laying date; open symbols: no significant laying date trends. Inset: population response of laying date in relation to temperature, with each symbol representing one population. Filled symbols: populations for which data were

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available between 1980/81 and 1999 or later; open symbols: populations that had a later start in the study.

Relevance Butterflies, dragonflies and damselflies are particularly sensitive to temperature. Milder springs are allowing them to take to the wing earlier in the season. Earlier onset of breeding can allow an extra generation to emerge during the year and population size can grow as a result. This may pose problems in the case of pests.

Climate change can also cause problems for animal populations. Populations may crash as vulnerable young emerge too early for their main food source or explode as insects are released from their normal predation pressure. The effects of such disruption to ecosystems are also discussed in Section 5.5.6.

Past trends As spring temperatures increased in Europe over the past 20 years, many organisms responded by advancing the timing of their growth and reproduction. The egg laying date for flycatcher populations, for example, advanced significantly during the period 1990-2002 in nine out of 25 populations studied, and 20 out of 25 populations showed a significant effect of local spring temperature (Figure 5.5.5.1), both strongly driven by climatic warming (Both et al., 2004). A study in Britain reached a similar conclusion (Crick and Sparks, 1999); an analysis of 74,258 records for 65 bird species from 1971 to 1995 showed significant trends towards earlier (8.8 days on average) laying dates for 20 species (31%), with only one species laying significantly later.

The date of snowmelt in northeast Greenland has advanced by an average of 14.6 days since the mid 1990s, bringing forward the date at which birds lay eggs and plants flower by on average 14.5 days per decade. The large and rapid phenological advancements in the high Arctic are a response to warming in the region occurring at twice the global average (Høye et al., 2007).

ProjectionsThe impacts of future climate on phenological changes are poorly understood, but are likely to include increasing trophic mismatch and disturbance to ecosystem functioning. The trend towards warmer springs is likely to continue to induce earlier breeding and migration activity. Unpredictable cold snaps will cause high mortality amongst early movers. Meanwhile, species whose life cycles are calibrated according to day length and which do not respond so readily to changing temperatures will not be able to exploit earlier spring resources.

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5.5.6 Impacts on ecosystem functioning

Key Messages • The stability of ecosystem functioning, and therefore of ecosystem services,

will become increasingly prone to unpredictable perturbations. Species are responding individualistically to climate change, resulting in the formation of new assemblages and novel interactions.

• Established biotic interactions are becoming disrupted, benefiting generalists at the expense of specialists.

• The impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning will increase the potential for pest outbreaks and place additional pressures on species of conservation importance.

Presentation of the main indicator(s)

Figure 5.5.6.1. Current distribution range of the butterfly Titania fritillary (Boloria titania) and its host plant American bistort (Polygonum bistorta). Source: Schweiger et al., in press. Caption: Green: niche space of P. bistorta; yellow: niche space of B. titania; red: overlap of both, which is the butterfly’s current range.

Relevance Suitable climate is only one of a number of factors that determine species distributions. An important constraint to range expansion of many insects is the presence of their host plant (Schweiger et al., in press). The enhanced flush of spring activity provides food for animals higher up the food chain. Animals that are able to breed earlier can exploit these food sources; this is good for generalists, but not for specialised feeders that depend upon synchrony with their food source. Asynchrony between food supplies and breeding may result in starvation of young that emerge too early or too late. This so-called trophic mismatch has been demonstrated in birds (Both et al., 2006) and is disrupting predator-prey relations amongst other animal species too, influencing population dynamics and in some cases causing crashes or explosions in numbers.Research has established that insect pests are likely to become more abundant as temperature increases (Cannon, 1998). As the impacts of climate change on

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ecosystems favour generalists, and as warmer temperatures increase insect survival and reproduction rates, more frequent, severe and unpredictable pest outbreaks are likely (McKinney and Lockwood, 1999). In temperate regions, milder winters are allowing increased rates of winter survival (Bale et al., 2002) and it has been estimated that, with a 2ºC temperature increase, some insects can undergo one to five additional life cycles per season (Yamamura and Kiritani, 1998). In agricultural systems, cold-susceptible species such as the western corn root worm (Diabrotica virgifera virgifera) are being favoured by milder winters. This species has shown recent expansion in several European countries, particularly in continuous cornfields.

Past trendsMany butterfly species are moving northward (c.f. 5.5.3), but often with overall declines in abundance and range size (Warren et al., 2001). An additional constraint on successful colonization of new habitats is the availability of ecologically linked species such as host plants. Many butterflies are host-specific, and the changing ranges of their hosts are an important constraint to their range expansion (Schweiger et al., in press). Biotic interactions are important factors in explaining the distributions of species. For example, many parts of Europe are climatically suitable for the butterfly Titania fritillary (Boloria titania) (Fig. 5.5.6.1). The species may even be able to migrate quickly in response to climate change. However, an important constraint to range expansion is the presence of its larval host plant American bistort (Polygonum bistorta) (Schweiger et al., in press). Likewise, the current distribution of the clouded Apollo (Parnassius mnemosyne) is not only explained by climate suitability but also by the presence of its Corydalis host plant (Araujo and Luoto, 2007).

Climate change may have disruptive effects of on plant and animal communities and their food webs. During 2004 and 2005, major population crashes of North Sea seabirds were observed. In Shetland, over 1000 guillemot nests and 24,000 nests of the Arctic tern were almost entirely deserted, and on the nearby island of Foula, the world’s largest colony of great skuas saw only a few living chicks. The cause of this significant loss was found to be a drastic reduction in the populations of sandeel, their principal food source. The disappearance of the sandeel, in turn, was due to the northward movement of the cold-water plankton on which these fish feed (c.f. Subchapter 5.4); the plankton’s range had shifted because the waters between Britain and Scandinavia had become too warm for it to survive there. Since 1984, some seabird species around Scotland have decreased by 60-70 % (CEH, 2005).

Projections The response to climate change of the butterfly Titania fritillary (Boloria titania) and its host plant American bistort (Polygonum bistorta) is likely to lead to a reduction in range overlap and, thus, an uncertain future for this specialist butterfly. Played out on a larger scale, these trophic mismatches benefit generalists at the expense of specialists, putting additional pressures on the capacity of ecosystems to provide certain services and on species of conservation importance (McKinney and Lockwood, 1999; Reid et al., 2005; Biesmeijer et al., 2006).

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Figure 5.5.6.2. (Mis)Match of projected distribution space of the butterfly Titania fritillary (Polygonum bistorta) and its host plant American bistort (Boloria titania) for moderate (a, b) and high (c, d) climate change scenarios for 2080 under the assumption of unlimited (a, c) and no (b, d) dispersal of its host plant. Source: Schweiger et al., in press. Caption: Green: niche space of P. bistorta; yellow: niche space of B. titania; red: overlap of both, which is the butterfly’s potential future niche space. Global change scenarios based on storylines developed within the EU-funded project ALARM (Settele et al., 2005, Spangenberg 2007, www.alarmproject.net).

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No dispersal of P. bistortaUnlimited dispersal of P. bistorta

a) Moderate change

c) High change

b) Moderate change

d) High change

5.6 Agriculture and forestry

5.6.1 Introduction The impacts of medium and long-term climate change on agriculture and forestry are often difficult to analyse separately from non-climate influences related to the management of the resources (Hafner, 2003). However, there is growing evidence that processes such as changes in phenology, growing season length and northwards shift of crops and forest species can be related to climatic change (IPCC-AR4, 2007). There are also increasing impacts due to an augmented frequency of extreme events, some of which can be attributed to climate change.

Potential positive impacts of climate change on agriculture in general are related to, longer growing seasons and new cropping opportunities in Northern Europe, more efficient use of water as well as better fertilization of plants throughout Europe. These possible benefits are counterbalanced by potentially negative impacts that include increased water demand and periods of water deficit, loss of soil carbon content, increased pesticide requirements and crop damages and less cropping opportunities in some regions in Southern Europe (Olesen and Bindi, 2004; Maracchi et al, 2005, Chmielewski et al., 2004, Menzel, 2003). In general, changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and increases in temperature are changing the quality and composition of crops and grasslands and also the range of native/alien pests and diseases. The latter could affect not only crops but also livestock and ultimately humans.

The link of forestry with climate change is twofold. Forests play a fundamental role in mitigating climate change because they may act as sinks for carbon dioxide. However, forests are also very vulnerable to changes in temperature, precipitation and extreme weather events which might have destructive impacts and reduce the carbon sequestration potential of the forest. Events such as forest fires have an even more negative effect since destroying the forest increases the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The majority of forests in central Europe are growing faster than in the past, partly because of regional warming. In contrast, the extended heat-wave of 2003 caused a significant reduction in biomass production of forests (Gabon, 2005).

Although the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture and forestry in Europe are very difficult to be determined due to the effects of policies and market influences and due to the continuous technological development in farming and silviculture techniques, there is evidence of wider vulnerability for both sectors (see also Chapter 6). Management actions can counteract but also exacerbate the effects of climatic changes and will play an important role as measures for adaptation to climate change.

The indicators included in this section are related to agricultural production, phenology, forestry growth and distribution, and to observed and projected impacts of forest fires. The effect of climate change on soil organic content is also covered in a separate section. Furthermore, all sections have comments on quality and availability of monitoring data.

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5.6.2 Crop yield variability

Key Messages • Over the last decades the yields of major agricultural crops, including cereals,

increased across Europe. • Climate change is responsible for variations of crop suitability and productivity in

Europe.• Since the beginning of the 21st century, the variability of crop yields increased as a

consequence of the extreme climatic events, e.g. the summer heat of 2003 or the spring drought of 2007.

• As a consequence of climatic changes those extreme climatic events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude and crop yields are expected to become more variable. Changes in farming practices and land management can act as risk-mitigating measures.

Presentation of the main indicatorFigure 5.6.2.1: Modelled suitability change for grain maize cultivation in the past (1961–1990) and in the future (2071–2100). 24 scenarios from 6 GCMs for each of the IPCC SRES A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 emissions scenarios (see Chapter 4) have been taken into account. Green areas show the suitable area without climate change, red depicts the expansion common under all scenarios and blue the area where scenario results diverge. Grey areas are unsuitable under all scenarios. Source: Olesen et al., 2007

Relevance Climate change introduces new uncertainties for the future of the agricultural sector. Climatic conditions are projected to become more erratic with an increase in the frequency of extreme events (floods, hurricanes, heat waves, severe droughts) (Parry, 2000). Biomass production of plants, and thus crop yields, are fundamentally determined by climatic conditions, i.e. the stable availability of energy (radiation, temperature) and water (rain) to support growth. Other environmental and anthropogenic factors influence crop yields, such as soil fertility, crop varieties and farming practices. These factors imply that in principle, many adaptation options are available to adjust agricultural practices to the changing climate, but that opportunities differ between regions.

Past trendsWhile the area under arable land decreased for most parts of Western Europe over the last 40 years crop yields have almost continuously increased (source: Eurostat). This trend persisted into the 21st century, although crop yield variability increased as a consequence of several extreme meteorological events in short succession: In 2003 a late frost followed by a severe drought reduced cereal yields over most parts of

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Europe. In 2005 a drought severely affected Western Europe (Iberian Peninsula). In 2006 an early drought was followed by extreme rains during summer, resulting in lower cereal production especially in Eastern Europe. (EC, Mars Bulletins, http://mars.jrc.it/marsstat/Bulletins/2008.htm) Alexander et al (2006) found a general increase of the intensity of precipitation events. For the Mediterranean area, where the climatologic vulnerability is high, several studies found an increasing trend towards more intense precipitation and a decrease in total precipitation (Alpert et al., 2002; Maheras et al., 2004, Brunetti et al., 2004). In general, it is difficult to separate the climate effect from the effect of improved agricultural techniques in the development of historic crop yield. Also in the future, adaptive management can help reducing the risks of climate change for agricultural yields, and make better use of opportunities.

ProjectionsThe effect of increasing mean daily temperatures on agricultural yields depends on the magnitude and geographic extent. The production area of some crops could expand to northern Europe, e.g for maize. For an increase in mean annual temperature of 2°C, cereal yields are expected to increase not least due to the fertilisation effect of the increase in CO2 (Parry et al, 2004). However, an increase in mean annual temperature of 4°C or more will shorten the crop cycle and the CO2 effect will not compensate for the resulting yield loss. Crop yields are also at risk from more intensive precipitation and prolonged periods of drought in particular in areas bordering the Mediterranean basin.The figures below show the sensitivity of maize and wheat yields to climate change, as derived from results of 69 published studies. The studies span a range of precipitation changes and CO2 concentrations, and vary in how they represent future changes in climate variability. Responses include cases without adaptation (red dots) and with adaptation (dark green dots). Adaptation represented in these studies included changes in planting dates and crop varieties, and shifts from rain-fed to irrigated conditions.

Figure5.6.2.2: Yield variation due to temperature increase. A small increase of temperature has a positive impact on cereals yield, while a high increase (3-5°C) has a negative impact. Lines are best-fit polynomials and are used here to summarize results across studies rather than as a predictive tool. Source: IPCC Report WGII (2007)

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5.6.3 Timing of the cycle of agricultural crops (agrophenology)Key Message • There is evidence that flowering and maturity of several species in Europe

now occur two or three weeks earlier than in the past.• The shortening of the phenological phases are expected to continue if the

temperature will keep increasing.

Figure 5.6.3.1: Rate of advance in the yearly date of flowering of winter wheat. The day of the year of flowering has been simulated by using a crop growth model (CGMS - Crop Growth Monitoring System) for the period 1975-2007.

Relevance Changes in crop phenology provide important evidence of responses to recent regional climate change (IPCC, 2007). Although phenological changes are often influenced by management practices and new farming technologies, the recent warming in Europe has clearly advanced a significant part of the agricultural calendar. Specific agro-phenological stages are particularly sensitive (e.g.: flowering, grain filling, etc.) to weather conditions and critical for final yield. The timing of the crop cycle (agrophenology) determines the productive success of the crop. In general, a longer crop cycle is strongly correlated to higher yields. In fact, a longer cycle permits to maximize the thermal energy, the solar radiation and the water resources available. The impact of unfavourable meteorological conditions and extreme events vary largely according to the timing of occurrence and the development stage of the crops. Agriculture has already adapted to the changing climate by selecting suitable varieties or adapting the crop calendar, and can be expected to do so in the future.

Past trendsSeveral studies have collected data and observed changes in the phenological phases of several perennial crops in Europe, such as the advance in the beginning of the growing season of fruit trees (2.3 days/10 years), cherry tree blossom (2.0 days/10

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years), apple tree blossom (2.2 days/10 years) in agreement with 1.4°C annual air temperature increase in Germany (Chmielewski et al., 2004) and the advance of fruit tree flowering of 1-3 weeks over the last 30 years for apricot and peach trees in France (Seguin et al., 2004).

An advance of sowing or planting dates has been observed for several agricultural crops, ranging from 5 days for potatoes in Finland to 10 days for maize and sugar beet in Germany and 20 days for maize in France (IPCC, 2007)

Grapevine phenologyWine composition is determined by various conditions: grape variety, rootstock, soil type, cultivation techniques, and climatic characteristics. The first three conditions are generally constant, while cultivation techniques are most often responsible for long-term variability. Climate influences year-to-year variability and is responsible for variations in the amount and quality of produced wines. Wine production areas, and particularly those for premium wines, are limited to regions climatically conducive to growing grapes with balanced composition and degree to which they reflect their origin (“varietal typicity”). Three conditions are required: (i) adequate heat accumulation; (ii) low risk of severe frost damage; and (iii) the absence of extreme heat. Moreover, vines are resistant to limited water availability in summer and it is essential to have no rainfall during harvest time, in order to increase sugar concentration and reduce disease development.Observed climate change during recent years determined a general increase of wine quality, mainly due to the increase of heat and reduction of rainfall, particularly during the last part of the ripening period, with a gradual increase in the potential alcohol levels (Duchen et al., 2005). Future possible impacts:• Seasonal shift: moving forward in

time of all the phenological phases with an increase of frost risk and a shortening of the ripening period. As a possible effect, the harvest time can now fall during periods with high temperatures, with negative effect on wine quality.

• Shifting of wine production areas, to north and more elevated regions.

• Water stress due to a reduction of available water.

• Modification of pest and disease development.

• Increase of sugar concentration determining wine with high alcohol and low acidity. The consequence is the reduced possibility of wine ageing and the poorer phenolic ripening.

• Modification of natural yeast composition.

ProjectionsAssuming the warming trend will continue, further reductions of the number of days required for reaching the flower opening (anthesis) and maturity phases may be expected for areas in Western Europe, where the phenology is currently strongly accelerated. However, the rate of the reductions can gradually decrease with a further increase of temperature (+4°C and +6°C hypotheses) due to a reduced efficiency of the photosynthetic process at high temperatures.

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Figure 5.6.3.2 Evolution of potential alcohol levels at harvest for Riesling in Alsace (F). Source: Duchen et al., 2005

5.6.4 Irrigation demandKey Message Between 1975 and 2006 clear trends, both positive and negative, were evident in

irrigation demand across Europe, with marked spatial variability. A significant increase of irrigation demand (50-70%) occurred mainly in Mediterranean areas; large decreases were recorded mainly in northern and central European regions.

Current trends and future scenarios depict an increase in the demand for water in agriculture, potentially reducing the amount available for other sectors.

Presentation of the main indicator

Figure 5.6.4.1: Variation in the annual meteorological water balance between April and October (m3/ha/yr) between 1975 and 2007. In areas where the rainfall amount has grown faster than the increase in temperature (for ex. in NL and DK in the period 1997-99), the figure shows a reduction of water deficit. The rate of variation of the “meteorological (or climatic) water balance”, expressed in m3 ha-1 y-1 is calculated as the difference between the volume of rainfall and the loss by evapotranspiration. A negative “meteorological water balance” indicates that evapotranspiration exceeds rainfall, and the amount by which it does so, represents the additional volume of water required from irrigation to compensate and to maintain the potential crops productivity. In other words, this indicator provides an estimation of the maximum irrigation volume which is necessary to ensure that crop growth is not limited by water availability.

RelevanceClimate change may affect agriculture primarily through increasing atmospheric CO2, rising temperatures and changing rainfall. Where rainfall does not limit crop growth,

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these conditions allow for earlier sowing dates and enhanced crop growth and yield (see previous indicators). Where reduced rainfall is predicted, however, the increased requirement for irrigation water can have an overall negative impact in economic and environmental terms. In these areas, increased water shortages in the future will enhance the competition for water between sectors (tourism, agriculture, energy, etc.), particularly in Southern Europe where the agricultural demand for water is greatest. Several adaptation options are available to mitigate the risks of water shortage. Increased irrigation can further burden surface and groundwater resources and increase greenhouse gas emissions, adding to the mitigation challenge.Past trends

Systematic observation of water demand for agriculture do not exist at European scale, however local trends cab ne reconstructed by using meteorological data. On average, the annual rate of increase of the irrigation demand is around 50 m3/ha/yr, but in some cases (Italy, Greece, Maghreb, Central Spain, Southern France and Germany) it is above 150-200 m3/ha/yr. Areas with upward trends in the water balance (mainly due to an increase in rainfall), have been observed in the Balkan Peninsula, the Alpine region, Scandinavia, Scotland, Benelux, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary, as well as in many Turkish areas.

Figure 5.6.4.2: In the Mediterranean area, a worsening climatic water deficit has been observed over the past 32 years (1975-2006)

ProjectionsNo quantitative projections of future irrigation demand are available. Many climatic projections for Europe (IPCC, 2007) foresee a very likely precipitation increase in the North and a decrease in the South, especially during the summer. Also the extremes of daily precipitation will increase in the north and the annual number of rainy days will decrease in the Mediterranean. Therefore, the risk of summer drought is likely to increase in central Europe and in the Mediterranean area. Agricultural crops will be affected, among other factors, by changes in the length and timing of the vegetative cycle. Adaptation in crop management will be necessary in order to try to avoid that crucial development stages sensitive to water-stress (flowering, grain filling, etc.) will occur during generally dry periods.

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5.6.5. Forest Growth

• In much of continental Europe, the majority of forests are growing faster now than in the early 20th century.• A changing climate will favour certain species in some forest locations, while making conditions worse for others, leading to substantial shifts in vegetation distribution.• The distribution and phenology of other plant and animal species (both pests and pollinators) is likely to change, leading to further alterations in competition dynamics in forests that will be difficult to predict.

Presentation of the main indicator

Figure 5.6.5.1: Modelled current (year 2000, left hand side) and future (year 2100, right hand side) of the 10 most dominant European Forest Categories (EEA, 2006), modelled to evaluate the change of habitat suitability. Source: Casalegno et al. 2007.

RelevanceForests accumulate 77% of the global carbon pool in the vegetation biomass and hence play an important role in the global carbon cycle (Dixon et al., 1994; IPCC, 2007). The carbon sink of European forests is currently estimated to offset about 10% of European fossil fuel emissions (Janssens et al. 2005, EEA, 2007). Forests and woodlands provide many things that society values, including food, marketable products, medicines, biodiversity, carbon reservoirs and opportunities for recreation. In addition, they regulate biogeochemical cycles and contribute to soil and water conservation. Changes in global climate and atmospheric composition are likely to have an impact on most of these goods and services, with significant impacts on socioeconomic systems (Winnett, 1998).

Management has a significant influence on the development of the growing stock and forest productivity. Adaptation measures include changes to plantation practices and forest management, the planting of different species mixtures, better matching of the species to the specific site, and the planting of similar species from their places of origin and non-native species in anticipation of climate change (Broadmeadow et al., 2003).

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Past trendsFor many centuries, most European forests were overexploited. Growth rates were reduced and biomass stocks were depleted until the middle of the twentieth century, when growth rates started to recover (Spieker et al. 1996; ICP Forests, 2005). Much of this increase can be attributed to advances in forest management practices, genetic improvement and, in central Europe, the cessation of site-degrading practices such as litter collection for fuel. It is also very likely that increasing temperatures and CO2 concentrations, nitrogen deposition, and reduction of air pollution (SO2) have had a positive effect on forest growth. Trees have long been known to respond to changes in climate: variations in tree-ring widths from one year to the next are recognized as an important source of climatic information over time (see Chapter 2).

Although systematic monitoring of forest conditions is not existing in Europe, several studies have already noted changes in dates of budburst and therefore longer growing season in several species (see Section 5.5.3), shifts in tree-line and changes in species distribution (see Section 5.5.2). A north-east shift of forest categories has already been observed for European forest species (Bakkens 2002, Harrison et al. 2006).

ProjectionsTree growth is controlled by complex interactions between climate and non-climate related factors, with forest management also having a significant effect. Possible future responses of forests to climate change include increased growth rates, tree-line movements, changes to forest growth, phenology, species composition, increased fire incidence (see Chapter 5.5.6), more severe droughts in some areas, increased storm damage, and increased insect and pathogen damage (Eastaugh/IUFRO 2008). Taken together this is likely to lead to a changed pattern of forest cover in the future. Simulation of the IPCC SRES A1B scenario for the period 2070-2100 shows a general trend of a south-west to north-east shift in suitable forest categories habitat (Casalegno et al. 2007).

Although climate change is anticipated to have an overall positive effect on growing stocks in Northern Europe, negative effects are also projected in some regions (e.g. drought and fire pose an increasing risk to Mediterranean forests), making overall projections difficult.

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Warmer winter weather is likely to increase productivity by extending the length of the growing season (Cannell et al., 1998).

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations can have a fertilising effect.

Cold and snow-related damage are likely to become less common.

Reduced summer rainfall may reduce tree growth and severe droughts may kill increasing numbers of trees.

Elevated atmospheric ozone concentrations may have a negative impact on growth (Sitch et al., 2007; Karnoskyet al., 2005).

Violent storms may occur more often, and more trees are likely to be damaged or blown down.

Possible increase in spring frost damage as trees become more susceptible through earlier leafing.

Damage by forest fires and insect pests is projected to increase.

Warmer winter weather is likely to increase productivity by extending the length of the growing season (Cannell et al., 1998).

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations can have a fertilising effect.

Cold and snow-related damage are likely to become less common.

Reduced summer rainfall may reduce tree growth and severe droughts may kill increasing numbers of trees.

Elevated atmospheric ozone concentrations may have a negative impact on growth (Sitch et al., 2007; Karnoskyet al., 2005).

Violent storms may occur more often, and more trees are likely to be damaged or blown down.

Possible increase in spring frost damage as trees become more susceptible through earlier leafing.

Damage by forest fires and insect pests is projected to increase.

Warmer winter weather is likely to increase productivity by extending the length of the growing season (Cannell et al., 1998).

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations can have a fertilising effect.

Cold and snow-related damage are likely to become less common.

Reduced summer rainfall may reduce tree growth and severe droughts may kill increasing numbers of trees.

Elevated atmospheric ozone concentrations may have a negative impact on growth (Sitch et al., 2007; Karnoskyet al., 2005).

Violent storms may occur more often, and more trees are likely to be damaged or blown down.

Possible increase in spring frost damage as trees become more susceptible through earlier leafing.

Damage by forest fires and insect pests is projected to increase.

5.6.6. Forest fire danger

Key Message • Under a warmer climate more severe fire weather is expected and, as a

consequence, more area burned, more ignitions and longer fire seasons.• Climate change will increase the fire potential during summer months, especially

in southern and central Europe.• The period in which fire danger exists will be longer in the future due to climate

change, with a likely increase of the frequency of extreme fire danger days in spring and autumn.

Figure 5.6.6.1: Past trends of fire danger level from 1958-2006 using the Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR).

RelevanceWildfires are a serious threat to forests and ecosystems in Europe and climate is the most important driving force affecting fire potential changes over time (Flannigan et al. 2000). Although it is generally recognized that forest fire occurrence in Europe is mostly due to causes of an anthropogenic nature, the total burned area changes significantly from year to year largely because of weather conditions. Changes in fire regimes may have strong impacts on natural resources and ecosystems stability, with consequent direct and indirect economic losses. On other hand active forest management and fire management practices can counteract the impacts of a changing climate to some extent.

Past trends Fire risk depends on many factors of a different nature that change over time (such as e.g., weather, fuel load, fuel type and condition, forest management practices, socio-economic context…). Historical fire series can be used to support statements on trend but unfortunately long and consistent time series of fire events are rarely available in Europe. In addition, by looking at the historical fire series alone, it is difficult to get a clear picture and recognize the effect of climate on fire potential. In contrast

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meteorological fire danger indices, which are designed to rate the component of fire risk dependent on weather conditions, can be usefully employed to analyze fire trend in a consistent way throughout longer time series. These indices, normally applied on a daily bases, can be summarized on a seasonal basis to rate the overall fire potential of a given year (seasonal fire severity) due to meteorological conditions. The index of Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR) has been derived from daily values of Van Wagner’s Fire Weather Index (FWI, Van Wagner 1987) the fire danger assessment method most widely applied all over the world (San Miguel-Ayanz et al. 2003). Results of a recent study on SSR development are shown in Figure 5.6.6.1. The average trend 1958-2006 was computed for all the grid cells, but it resulted to be statistically significant only for 21% of the cases (15% positive and 6% negative), which appear to be concentrated in specific geographical areas (see Figure 5.6.6.1.).

Projections Future projections were derived for the IPCC SRES scenario A2, processing data from the PRUDENCE data archive, namely the daily high resolution data (12 km) from HIRHAM model run by DMI, for the time periods 1960-90 (control) and 2070-2100 (projections) (see Figure 5.6.6.2). Results confirm in Europe, projections assessed for North America (Flannigan et al. 2005) with a significant increase of fire potential, an enlargement of the fire prone area and a lengthening of the fire season.

Figure 5.6.6.2. Projected (2071-2100) and control (1961-1990) three-monthly fire danger levels in Europe for the IPCC SRES high emissions A2 climate change scenario. Fire danger in winter months (DJF) is not shown because negligible.

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5.6.7 Soil Organic Carbon

Key Messageso Soil in the EU contains around 71*109 tons (or 71 gigatons, Gt) of organic

carbon, nearly 10% of the carbon accumulated in the atmosphere) An increase in temperature and a reduction in moisture tend to accelerate decomposition of organic material and subsequently lead to a decline in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe.

o The projected changes in the climate during the 21st century will make soils a source of CO2 in most areas of the EU. To counterbalance the climate-induced decline of carbon levels in soil adapted land use and management practices can be implemented.

o Changes in SOC have already been observed in measurements in various European regions over the last 25 years.

Figure 5.6.7.1 Changes in soil organic carbon contents across England and Wales between 1978 and 2003. a) Carbon contents in the original samplings (1978-83), and b) rates of change calculated from the changes over the different sampling intervals (1994-2003).

Source: Bellamy et al., 2005

RelevanceOrganic carbon in the soil is not a static component, but part of the carbon cycle, which includes the atmosphere, water and constituents of the above and below-ground biosphere. The main source of organic carbon is provided by organisms that synthesize their food from inorganic substances (autotropic), such as photosynthesising plants. In this process atmospheric carbon is used to build organic materials and enters the soil layers through decomposition and the formation of humus.

Climatic conditions strongly influence both the trends and rates of the accumulation and transformation of organic substances in the soil. Increases in temperature and aridity lead to a decrease of the amount of organic carbon in soil in areas thus affected. Lower levels of organic carbon in the soil are generally detrimental to soil fertility and tend to increase soil compaction, which subsequently leads to increases in surface water runoff and erosion. Other effects of lower organic carbon levels are a depletion of biodiversity and an increased susceptibility to acid or alkaline conditions. The projected changes to the climate cause accelerated rates in the release of CO2 from the soil, which contributes to higher GHG concentrations in the atmosphere.

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The main measures to reduce the detrimental effect of higher temperatures combined with lower soil moisture on the amount of soil organic carbon concern changes in land cover and adapted practices of land management. (Liski et al., 2002; Janssens et al., 2004; Smith et el., 2005, 2006). Under the same climatic conditions grassland and forests tend to have higher stocks of organic carbon than arable land and are seen as net sinks for carbon (Vleeshouwers and Verhagen, 2002). Land management practices aim at increasing the net primary production and reducing losses of above-ground biomass from decomposition. Adaptive measure on agricultural land are changes in farming practices, such as a reduction in tilling or retaining crop residues after harvesting.

Past trendsIn the past changes in organic carbon in the soil were largely driven by conversion of land for the production of agricultural crops and long-term monitoring activities concentrate on agricultural land, such as the Rothamstead long-term experiments (Rothamstead Research, 2006). In Europe drained peat lands the annual loss in carbon is in the range of 0 to 47 gCm−2 (Lappalainen, 1996). A survey of Belgian croplands (210,000 soil samples taken between 1989 and 1999) indicates a mean annual loss in organic carbon of 76 gCm−2 (Sleutel et al., 2003). A large-scale inventory in Austria estimated that croplands were losing 24 gCm−2 annually (Dersch and Boehm, 1997). A general intensification of farming in the past is likely to exceed the effect of changes in the climate on soil organic carbon on agricultural land.

ProjectionsThe amount of organic carbon in the soil is largely determined by balancing the net primary production (NPP) from vegetation with the rate of decomposition of the organic material. Without an increase in NPP soil carbon for cropland may decrease by 8.8 to 12.3 t C ha-1. When including changes in NPP and technological advances the amount of organic carbon on cropland could increasedby 1-7 t C ha-1 (Smith, et al., 2005).

Figure 5.6.7.2: Projected changes of soil organic carbon in the EU for cropland for the IPCC SRES A2 scenario up to 2080. The map (left) shows that climate change can cause loss (red-colour) of SOC for most areas in Europe. This decline can be reversed (blue-colour) if measures enhancing soil carbon are implemented. As these are modelled data the projected developments should be regarded with caution. Source: Smith et al., 2005.

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5.6.8 Growing season for agricultural cropsKey Message• There is evidence that growing season length has varied in Europe for several

agricultural crops.• The longer growing season increases the productivity of crop yields and insect

population and favours the introduction of new species in areas which were not suitable for these species before. These opportunities are particularly important for the northern latitudes.

• At southern latitudes, the trend is towards shortening of the growing season with consequent higher risk of frost damages for the crops due to delayed spring frost events.

Figure 5.6.8.2: Variation of growing season length.

RelevanceIncreasing air temperatures significantly impact on the duration of the growing season over large areas in European (Scheifinger et al, 2003). The number of consecutive days with temperatures above 0°C can be assumed as the period favourable for growth, also called “frost-free period”. The timing and length of the frost-free period is of interest to naturalists, farmers and gardeners amongst others. The impact on plants and animals are largely reported with a clear trend towards earlier appearance dates of spring starting growth and its prolongation during autumn (Menzel et al, 1999). A longer growing season permits the proliferation of those species facing optimal conditions for their development and increase of their productive performances (e.g.: crop yields, insect population, etc.); the introduction of new species (very sensitive to frost) in areas before limited by unfavourable thermal conditions. Changes of management practices, e.g. changes in species grown, different varieties or adaptations of the crop calendar, can counteract the negative effects of a changing growing season (pests) and capture the benefits (agricultural crops).

Past trendsMany studies report the lengthening of the period between the dates of occurrence of last spring frost and first autumn frost. This occurred in the last decades in several areas in Europe and more generally in the Northern Hemisphere (Keeling et al., 1996;

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Myneni et al., 1997; Magnuson et al., 2000; McCarthy et al., 2001; Menzel and Estrella, 2001; Tucker et al., 2001; Zhou et al., 2001; Walther et al., 2002; Root et al., 2003 Tait et al, 2003, Yan et al., 2002, Robeson 2002, Way et al., 1997). An analysis of the growing season lengths in Europe between 1975 and 2006 shows a general and clear trend in lengthening of the growing season. However, in the Mediterranean countries, in the Black Sea area and in parts of Russia a decline in lengths have been observed.

The trend is not uniformly spread over Europe. The highest rates of variation (about 0.5-0.7 days per year) have been recorded in central and Southern Spain, Central Italy, along the Atlantic shores, on the British Isles, in Denmark and in the central part of the EU. The extension of the growing season occurred either due to a reduction of spring frost events or due to a progressive delay of the occurrence of fall frost. By contrast, in areas where a decrease of the length occurred, in particular in Southern Europe, the plants are more at risk to frost damages due to a delay in the last winter-spring frost.

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Figure 5.6.8.2: Development of frost-free periods in selected areas

ProjectionsFollowing the observed trends (even more accelerated in the last decade) and according to the future projections for temperatures increase, a further lengthening of the growing season (both for earlier onset of spring and delayed of autumn) as well as a northward shift of species is projected. The latter development is already widely reported (Aerts et al., 2006). The length of growing season will mainly be influenced by the increase of temperatures in autumn and spring (Ainsworth and Long, 2005; Norby et al., 2003; Kimball et al.,28 2002; Jablonski et al., 2002).

According to the IPCC analysis Europe undergoes a warming in all seasons in all scenarios, but the warming will be greater over Western and Southern Europe in summer and over Northern ad Eastern Europe in winter. Therefore, in these areas a larger lengthening of growing season is expected, whilst in southern and western Europe the limited water availability and the high temperatures stress during summer will affect the real plant growth negatively.

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5.7 Water quantity, droughts, floods

5.7.1 Introduction

Water is essential to any form of life and constitutes an indispensable resource for nearly all human activity. It is intricately linked with climate through a large number of connections and feedback cycles, so that any alteration in the climate system will induce changes in the hydrological cycle. Global warming due to the anthropogenic rise in greenhouse gasses not only results in widespread melting of snow and ice, but also augments the water holding capacity of the air and amplifies evaporation. This leads to larger amounts of moisture in the air, an increased intensity of water cycling, as well as to changes in the distribution, frequency and intensity of precipitation (see also Section 5.2.3 and 5.2.5). Consequently, the distribution in time and space of freshwater resources, as well as any socio-economic activity depending thereon, is affected by climate variability and climate change.

There is growing evidence of changes in the global hydrological cycle over the last 50 years that may be linked with changes in climate, such as an increasing continental runoff, a wetter northern Europe and a drier Mediterranean, an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation events over many land regions, as well as changes in the seasonality of river flow where winter precipitation dominantly falls as snow (see also Section 5.3). Long-term trends in hydrological variables, however, are often masked by the significant inter-annual to decadal variability. Compared to historic data availability about meteorological variables, hydrometric records are more sparse and limited in time due to the lack of dense observation networks of long term hydrological variables. Also, confounding factors such as land-use change, water management practices or extensive water withdrawals have considerably changed the natural flow of water, making it more difficult to detect climate change induced trends in hydrological variables. It may therefore require substantially more time before statistically significant changes can be observed, especially in the frequency of extreme events such as floods and droughts, because of their long-term return intervals and the random nature of their occurrence. For the coming decades, global warming is projected to further intensify the hydrological cycle, with impacts that will likely be more severe than those observed to date. Climate change will lead to strong changes in the yearly and seasonal water availability across Europe. Water availability will generally increase in northern parts of Europe, although summer flows may decrease. Southern and south-eastern regions of Europe, which already suffer most from water stress, will be particularly exposed to reductions in water resources and see an increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts. On the other hand, an increase in extreme high river flows is projected for large parts of Europe due to the increase of heavy rain events, even in regions where it will get drier on average. Due to limitations of climate models, as well as scaling issues between climate and hydrological models, quantitative projections of changes in precipitation and river flows at the river basin scale remain, however, highly uncertain.

The projected climate-induced changes will aggravate the impact of other stresses, such as land use, demographic or socio-economic changes, on water availability, freshwater ecosystems, energy production, navigation, irrigation, tourism, as well as on several other sectors. In the face of these uncertain changes, adaptation procedures need to be designed that can be altered or that are robust to changes. Such measures include, for example, stimulating awareness, improving water efficiency and encouraging water conservation to mitigate water stress, directing spatial planning and watershed management to enhance retention and reduce

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flood risk, as well as effective monitoring, detection and early warning of hazards or changes in water availability.

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5.7.2 River flow

Key Messageso Over the 20th century, annual river flows have shown an increasing trend in northern

parts of Europe, with increases mainly in winter, and a slightly decreasing trend in southern parts of Europe. These changes are linked with observed changes in precipitation patterns and temperature.

o Annual river flow is projected to decrease in southern and south-eastern parts of Europe and to increase in northern parts of Europe, but absolute changes remain uncertain.

o Climate change is projected to result in strong changes in the seasonality of river flows across Europe. Summer flows are projected to decrease in most parts of Europe, also in regions where annual flows will increase.

o Regions in southern Europe, which already suffer most from water stress, are projected to be particularly exposed to reductions in water resources due to climate change. This will result in increased competition for available water resources.

Presentation of the main indicator(s)

Figure 5.7.2.1. Change in annual river flow (in percent) for the period 1971-98 relative to 1900-70. Map is based on an ensemble of 12 climate models driven by estimated historical variations of solar irradiance and radiatively active atmospheric gases and aerosols, and validated against observed river flows (from Milly et al., 2005).

RelevanceWater is an indispensable resource for human health, ecosystems and socio-economic activity. From a resource perspective, river flow is a measure of sustainable fresh water availability in a basin. Variations in river flow are determined mainly by the seasonality of precipitation and temperature, as well as by catchment characteristics such as geology, soils and land cover. River flow can be used as an indicator because changes in temperature and precipitation patterns due to global warming modify the distribution of water at the land surface, and consequently the annual water budget of river basins as well as the timing or seasonality of river flows. The consequent changes in water availability may adversely affect ecosystems and several socio-economic sectors such as water management, energy production, navigation, irrigation and tourism.

In view of global warming and the associated changes in water availability it will become increasingly important to balance competing societal, industrial, agricultural and environmental demands. Sustainable options to mitigate the effects of changes in water

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availability include improved water efficiency, the re-use of water, or metering and water pricing to stimulate awareness and encourage water conservation.

Past trends In accordance with the observed changes in precipitation and temperature (see Section 5.2.2 and 5.2.3), there is some evidence of climate induced changes in annual river flow, as well as in the seasonality of flow, in Europe during the 20 th century. However, anthropogenic interventions in the catchment, such as groundwater abstraction, irrigation, river regulation, land use changes and urbanization, have considerably altered river flow regimes in large parts of Europe, confounding climate change detection studies.

In northern parts of Europe, the mean annual river flow has in general increased (Lindström and Bergström, 2004, Milly et al., 2005). Increases occurred mainly in winter and spring season (Hisdal et al., 2007), likely caused by a general temperature increase during the last decades (see Section 5.2.2) in combination with increased winter precipitation (see Section 5.2.3) in the northern regions. Significant increases in river flow have been observed also in Scotland for one third of the sites in the last three decades (Werritty et al., 2002), as well as in winter and autumn in western Britain, consistent with recent increases in winter rainfall and a positive NAO index (Dixon et al., 2006). However, some of these changes could be part of natural variability (Wade et al., 2005). In western and central Europe, annual and monthly mean river flow series appear to be stationary over the 20 th century (Wang et al., 2005). In mountainous regions of central Europe, however, the main identified trends are an increase in annual river flow due to increases in winter, spring and autumn river flow. In summer, both upward and downward trends have been detected (Birsan et al., 2005). In southern parts of Europe, a slightly decreasing trend in annual river flow has been observed (Milly et al., 2005).

Projections Annual river flow is projected to decrease in southern and south-eastern parts of Europe and to increase in northern and north-eastern parts of Europe (Arnell, 2004, Milly et al., 2005; Alcamo et al., 2007). Strong changes are also projected in the seasonality of river flows, with large differences across Europe. Winter and spring river flows are projected to increase in most parts of Europe, except for the most southern and south-eastern regions of Europe. In summer and autumn, river flows are projected to decrease in most parts of Europe, except for northern and north-eastern regions of Europe where autumn flows are projected to increase (Dankers and Feyen, 2008). In snow dominated regions, such as the Alps, Scandinavia and the Baltic, the drop in winter retention as snow, earlier snowmelt and reduced summer precipitation will reduce river flows in summer (Andréasson, et al., 2004; Jasper et al., 2004; Barnett et al., 2005), when demand is typically highest.

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Figure 5.7.2.2. Relative change in mean annual and seasonal river flow between scenario (2071-2100) and control period (1961-1990) for IPCC SRES scenario A2 (Dankers and Feyen, 2008).

Figure 5.7.2.3. Change in daily average river flow between 2071-2100 (blue line) and 1961-1990 (black line) for IPCC SRES scenario A2 (Dankers and Feyen, 2008).

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5.7.3 River floods

Key Messageso Although a significant trend in extreme river flows has not yet been observed to date,

in Europe twice as much river flow maxima occurred between 1981-2000 compared to 1961-1980.

o Since 1990, 259 major river floods have been reported in Europe, of which 165 have been reported since 2000 (EM-DAT). The rise in reported number of flood events over the last decades is mainly caused by better reporting and land-use changes.

o Nevertheless, it is projected that global warming will intensify the hydrological cycle and increase the occurrence and frequency of flood events in large parts of Europe, even though that estimates of changes in flood frequency and magnitude remain highly uncertain.

o Due to warming, projections suggest less snow accumulation during winter and therefore a lower risk of early-spring flooding.

Presentation of the main indicator(s)

Figure 5.7.3.1. Recurrence of flood events in Europe for the period 1998-2005. Source: EEA (2006), based on data from Darthmouth Flood Observatory.

Relevance A flood can be defined as the temporary covering of land by water outside its normal confines. There exist different types of floods, such as large scale river floods, flash floods, ice-jam or snowmelt induced floods, and coastal floods due to sea level rise (see Section 5.4.2). Inland river floods are mainly linked with prolonged or heavy precipitation events as well as with snowmelt, hence are suited as an indicator of climate change.

River floods are the most common natural disaster in Europe. They result in huge economic losses due to damages to infrastructure, property and agricultural land, as well as due to indirect losses in or outside the flooded areas, such as production loss caused by damaged stocks or roads, or by the interruption of power generation plants and navigation. River floods lead to loss of life, especially in the case of flash floods, displacement of people and have adverse effects on human health and the environment.

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To account for the projected changes in extreme precipitation and river flows current procedures for designing flood-control infrastructures have to be revised. Flood management policy will also have to shift from defensive action towards the management of risk and enhancing societies’ ability to live with floods. This can be achieved via the use of non-structural flood protection measures such as spatial planning, early warning, relief and post-flood recovery systems, as well as flood insurance (Kundzewicz et al., 2002).

Past trends Despite that there has been a considerable rise in the number of reported major flood events and in economic losses caused by floods in Europe over the last decades (see Section 6.3), no general climate related trend has yet been detected in extreme high river flows that induce floods (Becker and Grunwald, 2003; Glaser and Stangl, 2003; Mudelsee et al., 2003; Kundzewicz et al., 2005; Pinter et al., 2006; Hisdal et al., 2007; Macklin and Rumsby, 2007).

Some changes, however, have been reported that may be linked with climate change. For example, in Europe twice as much river flow maxima occurred between 1981-2000 compared to 1961-1980 (Kundzewicz, 2005), whereas globally there has likely been a increase in the frequency of extreme rare flood events in very large catchments (Milly et al., 2002). On the other hand, in Central Europe the frequency and severity of snowmelt and ice-jam floods decreased over the last decades due to warming of European winters in combination with less abundant snow cover (e.g., Mudelsee et al., 2003; Brázdil et al., 2006; Cyberski et al., 2006). In the Nordic countries, snowmelt floods have occurred earlier due to warmer winters (Hisdal et al., 2007). In Portugal, changed precipitation patterns resulted in an intensification of floods during autumn but a decline in floods in winter and spring (Ramos and Reis, 2002). In the UK, positive trends in high flows have been observed over the last 30-50 years (Robson, 2002; Dixon et al., 2006), some of which are consistent with observed changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (see Section 5.4.2). Comparison with historical climate variability and flood records suggests however that many of the detected changes over the last decades could reasonably be part of natural climatic variation. Changes in the terrestrial system, such as urbanisation, deforestation, loss of natural floodplain storage, as well as river and flood management have also strongly affected flood generation (Barnolas and Llasat, 2007).

Projections Although there is yet no proof that the extreme flood events in recent years are a direct consequence of climate change, they may be an indication of what can be expected in the future. Namely, it is projected that the frequency and intensity of flood events is projected to increase in large parts of Europe (Lehner et al., 2006; Dankers and Feyen, 2008). Especially flash and urban floods, triggered by local intense precipitation events, are likely to be more frequent throughout Europe (Christensen and Christensen, 2003; Kundzewicz et al., 2006). Flood hazard will also likely rise during wetter and warmer winters, with increasingly more frequent rain and less frequent snow (Palmer and Räisänen, 2002). Even in regions where mean river flows will significantly drop, such as in the Iberian Peninsula, the projected increase in precipitation intensity and variability may cause more floods. In snow-dominated regions, such as the Alps, the Carpathian Mountains and northern parts of Europe, spring snowmelt floods are projected to decrease due to a shorter snow season and less snow accumulation in warmer winters (Kay et al., 2006; Dankers and Feyen, 2008).

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Figure 5.7.3.2. Relative change in 100-year return level of river discharge between scenario (2071-2100) and control period (1961-1990) for the IPCC SRES scenario A2 (Dankers and Feyen, 2008).

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5.7.4 River flow drought

Key Messageso Europe has been affected by several major droughts in the last decades, such as the

catastrophic 2003 drought associated with the summer heatwave in central parts of Europe and the 2005 drought in the Iberian Peninsula.

o Notwithstanding the absence of a general trend in Europe as a whole, in some regions climate change has likely increased the frequency and/or severity of droughts.

o Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in many regions in Europe due to higher temperatures, decreased summer precipitation, as well as more and longer dry spells.

o Regions most prone to an increase in drought hazard are southern and south-eastern Europe, but minimum river flows will also decrease significantly in many other parts of Europe, especially in summer.

Presentation of the main indicator(s)

Figure 5.7.4.1. Change in the severity of river flow drought for the period 1962-1990. Red indicates more severe, blue indicates less severe (from Hisdal et al, 2001).

Figure 5.7.4.2. Change in the severity of river flow drought in France for the period 1960-2000. Red indicates more severe, blue indicates less severe (from Lang et al., 2006).

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Relevance Drought may refer to meteorological drought (precipitation well below average, Section 5.2.3), hydrological drought (low river flows, lake and groundwater levels), agricultural drought (soil moisture deficit, Section 5.6), environmental drought (impact on ecosystems) and socio-economic drought (impact on economic goods and services). The focus here is on hydrological drought, more specifically on river flow drought, as river flow is a measure of sustainable fresh water availability in a basin and it is impacted by climate change. River flow data are also more abundantly available compared to other hydrometric information such as on groundwater recharge, surface water storage or soil moisture. Climate-induced trends in extreme low river flows are however often masked by land use changes, water management practices and extensive water withdrawals.

Prolonged droughts have considerable economical, societal and environmental impacts. They affect several sectors, such as energy production, both in terms of water availability for hydropower and cooling water in electricity generation, river navigation, agriculture, as well as public water supply.

Adverse effects of droughts and low river flow conditions can be mitigated at the supply side through the conjunctive use of surface and groundwater, desalination of sea water as well as the storage and transfer of water. Demand side measures include improving water efficiency, metering and water pricing. Shortages in water can be anticipated through effective monitoring and forecasting of future river flows and storage in reservoirs.

Past trends Over the past 30 years, Europe has been affected by a number of major drought events, most notably in 1976, 1989, 1991, and more recently, the prolonged event over large parts of Europe associated with the summer heatwave in 2003. The most serious drought in the Iberian Peninsula in 60 years occurred in 2005, reducing overall EU cereal yields by an estimated ten percent. The drought also triggered forest fires, killing 15 people and destroying 180,000 hectares of forest and farmland in Portugal alone (UNEP, 2006). However, to date, there is no evidence that river flow droughts have become more severe or frequent in general over Europe in recent decades (Hisdal et al., 2001), nor is there conclusive proof of a general summer desiccation in Europe over the last 50 years due to reduced summer moisture availability (van der Schrier et al., 2006).

Notwithstanding the absence of a general trend in Europe, distinct regional differences have been found. In particular, more severe river flow droughts were observed in Spain, eastern part of Eastern Europe and in large parts of the UK (Hisdal et al., 2001). However, in much of the UK there is no evidence of a significant increase in the frequency of occurrence of low river flows (Hanneford and Marsh, 2006). In large parts of Central Europe and in the western parts of Eastern Europe droughts became less severe (Hisdal et al., 2001). In France, a majority of stations showed a decreasing trend in the annual minima of 30 days mean river flows over the last 40 years, but no such trend was found for drought severity or duration (Lang et al., 2006). In southern and eastern Norway there has been a tendency towards more severe summer droughts (Hisdal et al., 2006). On the other hand, several stations in Europe have shown trends towards less severe low flows over the 20 th century, consistent with an increasing number of reservoirs becoming operational in the catchments over the period of record (Svensson et al., 2004).

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Projections For the coming decades river flow droughts are projected to increase in frequency and severity in southern and south-eastern Europe, the UK, France, Benelux, and in western parts of Germany. In snow-dominated regions, where droughts typically occur in winter, droughts are projected to be less severe because a lower fraction of precipitation will fall as snow in warmer winters. In most parts of Europe, the projected decrease in summer precipitation, accompanied by rising temperatures, which enhances evaporative demand, may lead to more frequent and intense summer droughts (Douville et al., 2002; Lehner et al., 2006; Feyen and Dankers, 2008). Due to both climate change and increasing water withdrawals more river basins will be affected by severe water stress, resulting in increased competition for available water resources. Regions most prone to an increase in drought risk are the Mediterranean and south-eastern parts of Europe, which already suffer most from water stress (Alcamo et al., 2003, Schröter, 2005).

Figure 5.7.4.3. Relative change in mean annual and summer minimum 7-day river flow between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 based on IPCC SRES scenario A2. Red indicates more severe droughts, blue indicates less severe droughts (Feyen and Dankers, 2008).

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Text box: GroundwaterThe main pressures on the groundwater system due to climate change are sea level rise, shrinking land ice and permafrost areas, declining groundwater recharge especially in southern European countries, more extreme peak flows and more prolonged low flows of rivers, and increased groundwater abstraction.

The resulting effects on groundwater quantity consist of shrinking fresh groundwater resources especially in coastal areas and in southern European countries, while brackish and salt groundwater bodies will expand. In addition, the fresh groundwater bodies will become more vulnerable to pollution by reduced turnover times and accelerated groundwater flow.

Saline intrusion in coastal aquifers, making the water unsuitable for drinking, may be exacerbated by future sea level rise Other effects on groundwater quality are more difficulty to predict as they strongly depend on changes in land-use. Nevertheless it is already clear that groundwater temperature has increased on average by 1 C since the 1970s (Stuyfzand et al., 2007). Further increases will raise the salinity of groundwater due to increased evapotranspiration losses, increased soil CO2 pressures and increased water – rock interaction.

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5.8 Water quality and fresh water ecology

5.8.1 IntroductionClimate change can result in significant changes in the variables that affect the quality of water. These impacts come from a variety of alterations to the temperature regimes and hydrology of water bodies, their physico-chemical and biological attributes, and changes in anthropogenic pressures. Changes include: physical changes such as water temperature (see indicator on water temperature), river

and lake ice-cover (see Section 5.8.3), stratification of water masses in lakes and water discharge including water level and retention time;

chemical changes, in particular oxygen content, nutrient loading and water colour; biological changes affecting the freshwater ecology.Changes in these variables lead to impacts on all the socio-economic and environmental goods and services that depend on these variables directly or indirectly.

A rise in water temperature will affect the rate of biogeochemical processes which determine water quality. This may result in: Reduced oxygen content. Increases in water temperature in streams and lakes reduce

oxygen content and increase biological respiration rates and thus may result in lower dissolved oxygen concentrations, particularly in summer low-flow periods and in lake hypolimnia. Higher temperature and lower oxygen concentration will cause stress and may reduce the habitats for cold-water species such as salmonids in lakes and rivers.

Less ice formation. Earlier ice break-up and longer annual ice-free period in rivers and lakes (see further in the indicator on river and lake ice cover);

a more stable vertical stratification and less mixing of water of deep water lakes, which in turn affect deep water oxygen conditions, nutrient cycling and plankton community;

Eutrophication. A warmer climate will generally enhance pollution load of nutrients to surface and groundwater. Higher temperature will increase mineralization and releases of nitrogen and carbon from soil organic matter and increased run-off and erosion that will result in increased pollution transport. Also internal phosphorus load is expected to increase in stratified lakes, due to declining oxygen concentrations in bottom waters.

Change in timing of algal blooms and increase of harmful algal blooms (see further in the indicator on freshwater ecology, Section 5.8.4);

Alterations to habitats and distribution of aquatic organisms. For example, a number of aquatic organisms conform to temperature preferences which determine their spatial distribution. Higher water temperatures lead to changes in distribution (more northwards in Europe) and may even lead to extinction of some aquatic species (see further in the indicator on freshwater ecology).

Also climate change factors other than temperature can affect water quality. In areas where amounts of surface water and ground water recharge will decrease, water quality may also decrease due to lower dilution of pollutants. Higher intensity and frequency of floods and higher intensity precipitation events is expected to increase the load of pollutants (organic matter, nutrients, hazardous substances) being washed from soils and from overflows of sewage systems to water bodies. Many lakes and rivers in areas with peat or forests have brown-coloured water. An unprecedented increase in water colour over the last 10-15 years has been reported in the Nordic countries, the UK, the foothills of central Europe, and north-eastern USA. Several climate related mechanisms may be responsible for the observed increases, but the reduction of acid rain in the last decades may be an important explanation for the observed increase in water colour in these areas (Monteith et al. 2007).

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Many of the diverse aspects of climate change (e.g. temperature increase, variations in rainfall and runoff) affect the distribution and mobility of hazardous substances in freshwater systems. Loading of hazardous substances may increase due to sewage overflow, as well as higher pesticide use and run-off due to heavy rains, while higher temperature enhance the degradation rate of pesticides and organic pollutants, which may reduce the concentration in rivers and lakes. Thus the net effect of climate change on hazardous substances is uncertain.

European freshwaters are already affected by many human activities resulting in changes in land-use, pollution with nutrients and hazardous substances, and acid deposition. Because of difficulties in disentangling the effects of climatic factors from other pressures, there is limited empirical evidence to demonstrate unequivocally the impact of climate change on water quality and freshwater ecology. On the other hand, there are many indications that freshwaters that are already under stress from human activities are highly susceptible to climate change impacts. Currently many national and European research activities are producing relevant and valuable results on climate change impacts on Europe’s freshwater; see for example, Euro-limpacs (http://www.eurolimpacs.ucl.ac.uk/index.php) and CLIME: Climate and Lake Impacts in Europe (http://clime.tkk.fi/)

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5.8.2 Water temperature

Key Messages During the last century the water temperature of European rivers and lakes increased by

1–3°C mainly due to air temperature increase, but also locally due to increased inputs of heated cooling water from power plants.

As water temperature is closely linked to the change in air temperature, an increase in air temperature due to climate change will be reflected in an increase of surface water temperature.

Presentation of the main indicator

Figure 5.8.2.1: Trend in annual water temperature in river Rhine (1909–2006), Danube (1901–1998) and average water temperature in August in Lake Saimaa, Finland (1924–2000)

Source: River Rhine: Rijkswaterstaat; River Danube: Hohensinner, 2006; Lake Saimaa: Korhonen, 2002; and L. Võrtsjärv 1947-2006 [missing reference].

RelevanceSince water temperature largely is determined by heat exchange with the atmosphere higher air temperatures lead to higher surface water temperatures. Particularly in standing waters and low flow situations in rivers, higher water temperatures will bring about changes in the physico-chemical condition of water bodies with subsequent impacts on biological conditions. This may have severe consequences for ecosystem structure and function as well as for water use and ecosystem services.

Impacts of increased water temperatures also include more stable vertical stratification of deep lakes and oxygen depletion; more frequent harmful algal blooms, reduced habitats for cold-water aquatic species and increased incidence of the temperature-dependent illnesses (see also indicator on freshwater ecology, Section 5.8.4).

Man can help freshwater ecosystems to adapt to increasing water temperature only in a limited way, such as reducing the pressures from other human activities e.g. pollution by nutrients and hazardous substances and hydromorphological modifications.

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Past trends From long time series covering the last 100 years it can be concluded that the surface water temperature of some of the major rivers in Europe has increased by 1–3°C over the last century (Figure 5.8.2.1). The temperature of the River Rhine increased by 3°C from 1910 to 2006. Two-thirds of this temperature rise is estimated to be due to the increased use of cooling water in Germany and one-third to the increase in temperature as a result of climate change (MNP, 2006). In the river Danube the annual average temperature increased by around by 1°C during the last century. A similar temperature increase was found in some large lakes: Lake Võrtsjärv in Estonia had a 0.7°C increase from 1947 to 2006 and the summer (August) water temperature of Lake Saimaa, Finland more than 1°C over the last century.

There are many shorter time series of water temperature covering the last 30-50 years and the general trend has been that temperature has increased in European freshwater systems. Generally the positive trend varies from 0.05 to 0.8oC decade-1. George et al. 2005 found that the temperature of Lake Windermere (England) and Lough

Feeagh (Ireland) increased by 0.7-1.4 °C from 1960 to 2000. The water temperature of Lake Veluwe (the Netherlands) has increased by more than one degree since 1960 (MNP 2006);

Marked increase in water temperature was found in eight Lithuanian lakes (Pernaravičiūtė, 2004) and six Polish lakes (Dabrowski et al,. 2004);

Since 1950, water temperatures in rivers and in lake surface water in Switzerland have in some cases increased by more than 2°C (BUWAL 2004). In the large lakes in the Alps the water temperature has generally increased 0.1 - 0.3°C per decade: Lake Maggiore and other large Italian lakes (Ambrosetti & Barbanti, 1999); Lake Zürich, (Livingstone, 2003); Lake Constance and Lake Geneva (Anneville et al., 2005).

Dokulil et al. (2006) studied the trend in hypolimnion (the bottom water) temperature in 12 deep European lakes and found generally a temperature increase in the hypolimnion of 0.1–0.2°C per decade. This temperature increase may have significant effects on thermal stratification and mixing of water in lakes, which in turn affect deep water oxygen conditions and nutrient cycling.

ProjectionsAs water temperature is closely linked to change in air temperature, the predicted increase in air temperature due to climate change will be reflected in increased surface water temperature. This comes on top of possible temperature changes by other factors, such as changes in cooling water releases. Forecasted increases in surface water temperatures are often 50 to 70% of the forecasted increase in air temperature. In line with the projected increase in air temperature (see section 5.2.2) lake surface water temperature maybe around 2°C higher by 2070, but with a clear seasonal dependency and depending on lake properties (Malmaeus et al., 2006; George et al., 2007).

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Figure 5.8.2.2: Observed changes in annual average deepwater temperatures. Time series and regression lines for: (A) Windermere north basin 60 m and the first 10-week period (Q1), (B) Lake Geneva, (C) Zürichsee, (D) Walensee, (E) Lake Constance, (F) Ammersee, (G) Lake Vänern, (H) Lake Vättern, (I) Hallstättersee, (J) Traunsee, (K) Mondsee, and (L) Attersee for the depths indicated. T-increase in all lakes was 0.1-0.2oC decade-1. Source: Dokulil et al., 2006.

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5.8.3 Lake and river ice cover

Key Messages In the Northern Hemisphere, the duration of ice cover has shortened at a mean rate of

12 days per 100 years accounted for by an average 5.7 days later ice-on and 6.3 days earlier ice-off per century.

The strongest trends in northern Europe occur in the timing of ice break-up which is consistently with the fastest warming in winter and spring.

Ice cover of lakes with mean winter temperature close to zero react much stronger on change in temperature compared to lakes in colder regions such as northern Scandinavia.

Presentation of the main indicator

Figure 5.8.3.1. Time series of ice break-up dates from selected European lakes and rivers and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index for winter (Dec.- Feb.). Data smoothed with a 7-year moving average. Se Section 5.4.3 for more information about the NAO.Source: Benson & Magnuson 2000, (Updated to 2006 by J. Korhonen and D. Livingstone).

RelevanceThe appearance of ice cover is indicative of a longer period with temperatures below 0 °C. The deeper the lake, the more cold is needed to cool down the lake so that ice forms. Increase in water temperature will result in less ice formation. Higher water temperature will affect the duration of ice cover, the freezing and thawing up dates and the thickness of ice cover.

Changes in ice cover are of critical ecological importance for lakes because of their effect on the underwater light climate (Leppäranta et al., 2003), nutrient recycling (Järvinen et al., 2002) and oxygen conditions (Stewart, 1976; Livingstone, 1993), which influence the production and biodiversity of phytoplankton (Rodhe, 1955; Phillips and Fawley, 2002; Weyhenmeyer et al., 1999) and the occurrence of winter fish kills (Greenbank, 1945; Barica and Mathias, 1979). Variations in lake and river ice are relevant in terms of freshwater hydrology and human activities such as winter transportation, bridge and pipeline crossings, and winter sports but no quantitative evidence for observed effects exists yet (IPCC, 2007). In Europe there is some evidence for a reduction of ice-jam floods due to reduced freshwater freezing during the last century (Svensson et al., 2006). There are only limited options for helping the freshwater ecosystem to adapt to changes in ice cover, however, reducing other human pressures will generally make the ecosystems more robust to cope with changing climate conditions.

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Past trends An analysis of long (150-yr) ice records from lakes and rivers throughout the Northern Hemisphere by Magnuson et al. (2000) indicated that for a 100 year period, ice-on has been occurring on average 5.7 ± 2.4 days later (± 95% confidence interval), while ice-off has been occurring on average 6.3 ± 1.6 days earlier, implying an overall decrease in the duration of ice cover at a mean rate of 12 days per 100 years.

Change in ice parameters show mostly trends that are in agreement with an observed local temperature increase. Air temperature is the key variable determining the timing of ice break-up (Palecki and Barry, 1986; Livingstone, 1997). As the fastest warming in the Northern Hemisphere has occurred in winter and spring, the trends in break-up dates are generally steeper than those in freeze-up dates.

A few longer time series reveal reduced ice cover (a warming trend) beginning as early as the 16th century, with increasing rates of change after about 1850 (see Figure 5.8.3.1). The early and long term decreasing trend in the ice break-up dates is the result of the ceasing of the Little Ice Age, which lasted about from 1400 to 1900 (Kerr, 1999). In the 20th century, the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the ice regime of European inland waters appears to be stronger than the effect of increasing temperatures.

Studying ice cover information from 11 Swiss lakes over the last Century Franssen and Scherrer (in press) found is found that in the past 40 years, and especially during the last two decades, ice cover was significantly reduced.

Ice cover of lakes at lower latitude for example in southern Sweden are more sensitively to climate change than lakes in the north, where mean winter temperatures are lower than zero most of the winter. A study on 196 Swedish lakes along a latitudinal temperature gradient revealed that a 1°C air temperature increase caused an up to 35 days earlier ice break-up in Sweden’s warmest southern regions with annual mean air temperatures around 7°C. It only caused an about 5 days earlier break-up in Sweden’s coldest northern regions with annual mean air temperatures around −2°C (Weyhenmeyer et al. 2004; 2007). Also in Finland ice break-up has become significantly earlier from the late 19th century to the present time, except in the very north (Korhonen, 2006).

ProjectionsFuture increases in air temperature associated with climate change are likely to result in generally shorter periods of ice cover on lakes and rivers. The most rapid decrease in the duration of ice cover will occur in the temperate region where the ice season is already short or only occurring in cold winters (Weyhenmeyer et al., 2004). As a result, one part of the present ice-covered lakes that mix from top to bottom during two mixing periods each year (dimictic lakes) will potentially change into monomictic, open-water lakes with consequences for vertical mixing (mixing only once), deep-water oxygenation, nutrient recycling and algal productivity. This may lead to an alteration in the ecological status of ice-covered lakes in temperate regions.

Regional climate model projections for northern Germany, based on the IPCC high emissions SRES A2 and intermediate emissions B2 climate scenarios, imply that for the Müggelsee, the percentage of ice-free winters will increase from ~2% now to over 60% by the end of the current century (Livingstone & Adrian, submitted). By contrast, increases in mean annual air temperature are likely to have much smaller effect on lakes in very cold regions (e.g. northern Scandinavia) until these also reach the threshold of having winter temperature close to zero.

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5.8.4 Freshwater ecology

Presentation of the main indicator(s)

Figure 5.8.4.1.: A) Northward shift of range margins of British Odonata, dragonflies and damselflies, between 1960–1970 and 1985–1995. Northern species (white), ubiquitous species (hatched) and southern species (black) are shown. B) Observed occurrence of seven types of southern dragonflies in Belgium, 1980-2005

Source: A) Hickling et al. 2005 and B) Biodiversity Indicators, 2006

Relevance Species and habitat dynamics in the face of climate change are complex and have many aspects. Increased temperatures and increased CO2 concentrations will have an effect on the different processes such as photosynthesis, respiration and decomposition and generally speed up the different processes. Climate induced changes in ice cover period, thermal stratification and nutrient availability and longer growing season affects the species composition and food web structures.

Water temperature is one of the parameters that determines the overall health of aquatic ecosystems. Most aquatic organisms (e.g. salmonids) have specific range of temperatures that they can tolerate, which determine their spatial distribution along a river or at a regional scale. Climate change could lead to the extinction of some aquatic species or at least can modify their distribution in a river system or move their distribution northwards in Europe. Several indications of climate impact on freshwater ecology functioning and biodiversity have already been observed, such as northward movement; phenology changes and invasive alien species.

Reducing the stress/pressure to freshwater ecosystems due to other human pressures such as pollution will make the ecosystems more robust to cope with the increasing stress due to changing climate conditions.

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Key Messages

Several freshwater species have shifted their ranges to higher latitudes (northward movement) and altitudes in response to climate warming and other factors.

There are European examples on changes in life cycle events (phenology) such as earlier spring phytoplankton bloom, clear water phase, first day of flight and spawning of fish.

In several European lakes phytoplankton and zooplankton blooms occur one month earlier compared to 30-40 years ago.

Climate change can cause enhanced phytoplankton blooms, favouring and stabilizing the dominance of harmful cyanobacteria in phytoplankton communities, resulting in increased threat of these bacteria and enhanced health risks, particularly in water bodies used for public water supply and bathing.

A B

Past trendsNorthward and upward movementThere are European examples of aquatic species (dragonflies, brown trout) that shift their ranges to higher latitudes (northward movement) and altitudes in response to climate warming. Thermophilic fish and invertebrate taxa will to a certain extent replace cold-water taxa. Examples include the brown trout in Alpine rivers (Hari et al., 2006), non-migratory British dragonflies and damselflies (Hickling et al., 2005, see Figure 5.8.4.1.A), and South-European Dragonflies in Belgium (Biodiversity Indicators, 2006, see Figure 5.8.4.1.B).

Change in species composition and abundanceClimate change will generally have a eutrophication-like effect (e.g. Schindler, 2001), with enhanced phytoplankton blooms (Wilhelm and Adrian 2007), and increased dominance of cyanobacteria in phytoplankton communities, resulting in increased threat of harmful cyanobacteria and enhanced health risks, particularly in water bodies used for public water supply and bathing (Jöhnk et al. in press; Mooij et al. 2005;). Trends in temperature have already had profound impacts on species composition of macrozoobenthos (fauna that are partially or fully buried for the majority of their lives in water bodies) in Northern Europe lakes (Burgmeer et al., 2007)). Fish and invertebrate communities have been found to respond to increases in water temperature in the upper Rhône river in France (Daufresne et al (2004, 2007).

Phenology changesChanges in growth season, such as the ice free period or periods above a certain temperature will change life cycle events, such as an earlier spring phytoplankton bloom, the clear water phase, the first day of flight of aquatic insects and the time of spawning of fish. Prolongation of the growing season can have major effect on population abundances with increased number of cell divisions, or generations per year. In several European lakes phytoplankton and zooplankton blooms occur one month earlier compared to 30-40 years ago from phytoplankton and zooplankton blooms (Weyhenmeyer 1999, 2001; Adrian et al 2006; Noges et al. 2007) Evidence is available on change in phenology of British Odonata species (Hassall et al., 2007).

Invasive freshwater species Invasive species are species that arrive at locations where they were never recorded before. Climate change is expected to support biological invasions of species that originate in warmer regions. For example, the subtropical filamentous highly toxic cyanobacterium Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii thrives in waters that have high temperatures, a stable water column and high nutrient concentrations: it has recently spread rapidly in temperate regions and is now commonly encountered throughout Europe (Dyble et al. 2002). The spreading to drinking and recreational water supplies has caused international, public health concerns due to its potential production of toxins. Fish species adapted to warmer waters, such as carp, may replace native fish species, such as yellow perch and trout in many regions (Kolar and Lodge 2000)

The above changes are mostly related to increased water temperature. As discussed in Section 5.8.2, this warming is at least partly related to climate change, while also other factors play a role (cooling water from power generation, sewage discharges).

Projections Many species are predicted to shift their ranges to higher latitudes and altitudes in response to climate warming. Southern species will move further north due to further increase of temperatures. Species of colder regions will move north and towards higher altitudes or will disappear when their migration is hampered (e.g. due to habitat fragmentation). Arctic and mountainous species may disappear.

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A comparison of a large set of Danish shallow lakes with a corresponding one located in colder climate in Canada (Jackson et al. 2007) suggest that warming will decrease winter fish-kills and enhance overwintering success of planktivorous fish which, in turn, suppress Daphnia development. As a result of decreased zooplankton grazing pressure, there will be more phytoplankton biomass built up per unit total phosphorus in warmer climate.

Where river discharges decrease seasonally, negative impacts on Atlantic salmon may occur. Walsh and Kilsby, 2006 found that salmon in northwest England will be affected negatively by climate change because suitable flow depths during spawning time, which occur all the time now, will only exist in 94% of the time in the 2080s (SRES A2 scenario)

In the ongoing European research project Eurolimpacs there has been an evaluation of Trichoptera taxa (aquatic insects) potentially endangered by climate change (see Figure below). The main results are that more than 20% of the Trichoptera species are projected to be endangered due to climate change in Southern Europe (droughts) and in the Alpine region (too high temperatures), whereas in other parts of Europe, the impacts would be less pronounced (Hering et al. in press).

Figure 5.8.4.2. The share of Trichoptera taxa sensitive to climate change (endemism, crenal preference and cold stenothermy) in the European ecoregions. A distinct South-East – North-West gradient is revealed: in all ecoregions of North-West Europe the share of potentially endangered taxa is lower than 10%, while the share is 51.7% on the Iberian Peninsula and 42.3% in Italy. Also the Balkan ecoregions and the high mountain ranges (Alps, Pyrenees, and Carpathians) are characterized by more than 25% potentially endangered taxa. Source: Hering et al. 2006: Evaluation of Trichoptera data in relation to climatic gradients. Deliverable No. 190 from the Eurolimpacs European Research Project available at http://www.eurolimpacs.ucl.ac.uk/oldsite/docstore/Deliverable_190.pdf

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5.9.Human health5.9.1 IntroductionClimate change currently contributes to the global burden of disease and premature deaths (IPCC, 2007). Human beings are exposed to climate change through changing weather patterns (temperature, precipitation, sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events) and indirectly through changes in water, air and food quality and changes in ecosystems, agriculture, industry and settlements and the economy. At this early stage the effects are small but are projected to progressively increase in all countries and regions (Confalonieri et al, 2007). There is now emerging evidence of observed climate change effects on human health. For example, climate warming in recent decades has altered the distribution of some infectious disease vectors, altered the seasonal distribution of some allergenic pollen species and increased the frequency and intensity of heat-waves. In the longer term, many serious impacts on health may occur, including an increase in the number of people suffering from death, disease and injury from heat-waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts; a change in the range of some infectious disease vectors; increase of the burden of diarrhoeal diseases from changes in water quality and quantity (IPCC, 2007). In parts of Europe, there may be some benefits of climate change to health, including fewer deaths from cold. It is expected that the benefits will be outweighed by the negative effects of rising temperatures worldwide.

This chapter describes some of the climate sensitive health outcomes in Europe, in particular for those where action is necessary. A limited amount of studies, data and information are currently available. Epidemiological studies have been undertaken on the health impacts of individual extreme events (e.g., heatwaves, floods); spatial studies where climate is an explanatory variable in the distribution of the disease or the disease vector; and temporal studies assessing the health effects of climate variability, including daily changes in temperature or rainfall. A very limited number of intervention studies have been undertaken to investigate the effectiveness of public-health measures to protect people from climate hazards.

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5.9.2 Heat and health Key Messages

High temperatures increase the risk of summer mortality, particularly in the elderly. Studies have shown that mortality risk increases by 2% in northern cities, and 3% in southern cities for every 1°C increase in apparent maximum temperature above a cut point.

Heat wave events can have severe impacts on health. Longer heat waves have an impact 1.5 to 5 times higher than shorter events. The hot summer of 2003 (June-September) was associated with more than 70,000 excess deaths, in 12 European countries.

86,000 net extra deaths per year are projected for the EU countries for a high emissions scenario with a global mean temperature increase of 3°C in 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990.

Presentation of the main indicator:

Figure 5.9.2.1: Number of excess death in summer 2003 and under a high emissions scenario for 2070

Relevance Heat directly affects the human physiology: Thermoregulation during heat stress requires a healthy cardiovascular system. When environmental heat overwhelms the heat coping mechanism, the body’s core temperature increases. This can lead to heat illness, or deaths from heat–stroke, heart failure and many other causes.

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Figure 5.9.2.2:Factors affecting human thermoregulation and the risk of heat illness (adapted from Bouchama, 2007) in technical Summary EuroHEAT

Overall, the impact of hot weather and heat-waves depends upon the level of exposure (timing, frequency, intensity and duration of the heat-wave); the size and structure of the exposed population (demographic profile; aging, health status, children, etc); the population sensitivity (prevalence of chronic diseases); preparedness of health systems and the prevention measures in place.

Several medical factors can increase the risk of heatwave mortality, including dehydration, drugs, ageing, and having a chronic disease that affects cardiac output and the skin blood flow, Social factors, such as social isolation, may also be important factors – although there has been little research in Europe (see Figure 5.9.2.2, Bouchama, 2007)

Major heat-wave events are also associated with other health hazards such as air pollution, wild fires, water, food and electricity supply failures—which also have implications for public health action. The effects of heat-wave on mortality may be larger during high ozone days, highlighting the interaction between climate change and air pollution.

Future heat-related mortality may be reduced, by acclimatisation and adaptation. On the other hand, increasing numbers of older adults in the population will increase the proportion of the population at risk (Confalonieri et al, 2007). Adaptation measures include national heat health action plans, heat health warning, health system preparedness and response, advice on what to do, and particular care for those most vulnerable.

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Past trends Many epidemiological studies have quantified the impact of temperature on daily mortality. In all cities in Europe the temperature – mortality relationship in long time series shows an increase in mortality over a certain temperature threshold. The point at which temperatures increase (the threshold) is related to the local climate. The estimated change in mortality risk by degree increase in temperature ranges from 0.7 to 3.6%. The research project “Assessment and Prevention of Acute Health Effects of Weather Conditions in Europe (PHEWE)”, estimated an increase in mortality for every 1°C increase in apparent temperature above thresholds of 2% in northern cities and 3% in southern cities. (Michelozzi et al, forthcoming)

In 2003, more than 70,000 excess deaths were recorded in 12 European countries, as compared to averages between 1998 and 2002,. In August alone, nearly 45,000 additional deaths were recorded in the 12 countries, including 15,251 in France (+37%), 9713 in Italy (+21.8%), 7295 in Germany (+11%), 6461 in Spain (+22.9%) and 1987 in England and Wales (+4.9%) (Robine et al, 2008). The timing, intensity and duration of heat-waves have been shown to influence the amount of mortality. Impacts of heat waves characterized by longer duration were from 1.5 to 5 times higher than for short heat waves (EuroHEAT, 2008).

Projections Heat-related morbidity and mortality is projected to increase. Within several National Assessments, estimates on heat mortality have been carried out, using different climate scenarios, population and adaptation assumptions. In the UK, annual heat-related deaths are expected to increase from 798 in 1990s to 2,793 in 2050s and 3,519 in the 2080s under the medium-high scenario. Annual cold-related deaths decrease from 80,313 in 1990s to 60,021 in 2050s and 51,243 in 2080s under the medium-high scenario (Donaldson et al, 2001). In Germany, a 20% increase in heat-related mortality is expected. This increase is estimated to be not likely to be compensated by reductions in cold-related mortality (Koppe, 2003). In Portugal, an increase in heat-related mortality from a baseline of 5.4 to 6 deaths/100,000 to a range of 19.5 to 248.4 deaths/100,000 by 2080s is expected (Dessai, 2003).

Almost 86,000 net extra deaths per year under a high emissions scenario (IPCC SRES A2, see Chapter 4) with a global mean temperature increase of 3°C in 2071- 2100 relative to 1961-1990 in EU25 (PESETA, 2007). These results are preliminary and do not assume physiological adjustment and do not separate out the impact of non-climate changes (socio-economic changes in age structure or population movements). The study is based on assumptions of a mortality-temperature relationship that does not take into account the differences between the Mediterranean and northern European countries.

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5.9.3 Vector borne diseasesKey messages

Changes in bird migration, could shift geographic distribution of vector borne diseases and change the life cycles of bird-associated pathogens.

The tiger mosquito, a transmittor a number of viruses, has extended its range in Europe substantially over the last 15 years and is projected to substantially further expand.

Changes in the geographical distribution of the sandfly vector have been reported in several European countries.

For the UK it was estimated that projected temperature increases would increase the risk of local malaria transmission by 8 to 15%; in Portugal a significant increase in the number of days suitable for survival of malaria vectors is projected.

Presentation of the main indicator:

Figure 5.9.3.1. Recent (January 2007) and projected distribution of Aedes albopictus in Europe (Source: Scholte and Schaeffner, 2007).

Relevance Climate change is likely to cause changes in ecological systems that will affect the risk of infectious diseases in Europe, including the seasonal activity of local vectors, and the establishment of tropical and semi-tropical species. Shifts in the global and regional distribution and behaviour of insect and bird species are early signs that biological systems are already responding to climate change (see also Section 5.5.5). The IPCC (2007) projects that climate change will lead to significant changes in infectious disease transmission by vectors (such as mosquitoes and ticks) as a result of changes in the geographical range, seasonality, disease transmission and absolute number of cases. Patterns of infectious disease in Europe are and will be affected by movement of people and goods, changes in hosts and land use. There are fears in Europe that new infectious diseases could be triggering population health problems and/or previously existing diseases could re-emerge. At the moment very limited information is

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available and current ongoing research projects, like EDEN will provide in future years more information on vector distribution.

Various adaptation options are available to reduce climate change risks for vector-borne diseases. For example early detection of any outbreak and improved public health surveillance, as required by the International Health Regulation. However locally some integrated vector-control measures will need to be revised or strengthened.

Past trendsIn Europe, shifting of life-cycle events, pole ward shift of boundaries, changes in migratory patterns have been observed in some animals and plant species (see Box 1).

Transmission patterns of malaria are intricately connected to meteorological conditions such as temperature and precipitation. For example, conditions for transmission in Europe have remained favorable as documented by repeated rare autochthonous transmission of a tropical malaria strain by local vectors to a susceptible person. At present, autochthonous malaria continues to pose a challenge in Turkey.

Aedes aegypti (tiger mosquito)– a vector which between many others transmits dengue - closely follows the 10 °C winter isotherm and is extending its range. Dengue is frequently introduced into Europe by travellers returning from dengue-endemic countries. Aedes albopictus has extended its range in Europe substantially over the last 15 years (Scholte and Schaeffner, 2007). A traveler bitten by Ae. albopictus could well be the source of transmission of a number of viruses in Europe. A recent cluster of cases Chikungunya (a virus that is highly infective and disabling but is not transmissible between people) has been observed in the Emilia-Romagna Region of Italy. This is the first example that an imported human disease case was followed by a sustained local mosquito transmission in continental Europe.

Under climate change, a shift towards milder winter temperatures may enable expansion of the range of Lyme disease into higher latitudes and altitudes, but only if all of the vertebrate host species required by the tick vector are equally able to expand their population distribution. In contrast, droughts and severe floods will negatively affect the distribution, at least temporarily. There is some observational evidence of northern or altitudinal shifts in tick distribution from Sweden and the Czech Republic. However, climate change alone is unlikely to explain recent increases in the incidence of tick-borne diseases in Europe, as there is considerable spatial heterogeneity in the

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Box 1: Bird migration

Climate change has been implicated in changes in the migratory and reproductive phenology (advancement in breeding and migration dates) of several bird species, their abundance and population dynamics, as well as a northward expansion of their geographical range in Europe. There are two potential consequences: a) shifts in the geographical distribution of the vectors and pathogens due to altered distributions or changed migratory patterns of bird populations; and b) changes in the life cycles of bird-associated pathogens due to the mistiming between bird breeding and the breeding of vectors, such as mosquitoes. For example, the impact on bird migration patterns may play a role in the distribution of West Nile fever.

degree of increase of tick-borne encephalitis. (see Figure 5) In Eastern Europe, milder weather conditions, favoring tick reproduction, may influence the distribution of Crimean Congo Haemorragic Fever.

Cutaneous leishmaniasis has been reported in dogs (reservoir hosts) further north in Europe, although the possibility of previous under-reporting cannot be excluded. Changes in the geographical distribution of the sandfly vector have been reported in several European countries.

It is believed that at least some of these observed changes can be attributed to climate change, although also other factors play an important, often dominant role, such as human behaviour (outdoor activities, international travel) and the status of health care services.

ProjectionsProjections of climate-change-related vector borne diseases use different approaches to classify the risk of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes. For malaria and dengue, results from projections are commonly presented as maps of potential shifts in distribution (see Figure 5.9.3.1). Health-impact models are typically based on climatic constraints on the development of the vector and/or parasite, and include limited population projections and non-climate assumptions. Models with incomplete parameterisation of biological relationships between temperature, vector and parasite often over-emphasise relative changes in risk, even when the absolute risk is small. Several modelling studies used the IPCC SRES climate scenarios, a few applied population scenarios, and none incorporated economic scenarios. Few studies incorporate adequate assumptions about adaptive capacity. The main approaches used are inclusion of current ‘control capacity‘ in the observed climate–health function and categorisation of the model output by adaptive capacity, thereby separating the effects of climate change from the effects of improvements in public health (Confalonieri et al, 2007).

Several climate change related models estimate an increase of malaria risk: For example, in the United Kingdom it was estimated that, with temperature increases, the risk of local malaria transmission could increase by 8–15% by 2050. In Portugal, the number of days suitable for survival of malaria vectors is projected to increase. Nevertheless, there is agreement that the risk of transmission of malaria related to localized climate change is very small. Risks are greater in the countries where importation of malaria coincides with socioeconomic degradation, the disintegration of health and social services, uncontrolled cross-border migration and lack of environmental management for mosquito control

DengueAn empirical model estimated that, in the 2080s, 5-6 billion people would be at risk of dengue as a result of climate change and population increase, compared with 3.5 billion people if the climate remained unchanged (Hales, 2002). This projections include a risk for the Mediterranean countries for dengue.

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5.9.4 Water and food borne diseases

Key messages

Changing frequency and intensity of precipitation events (and temperature) from climate change may affect outbreaks of waterborne diseases.

Increasing risk of flooding due to climate change has the potential to mobilise pathogens or chemicals from stores.

Climate change is likely to affect water quality in rivers due to chemical contamination.

There is a linear increase in reported cases of some food borne diseases with each degree increase in weekly or monthly temperature over a certain location specific threshold.

Main indicatorUse access to safe waters – based on ‘Inland waters’ chapter from the Belgrade report

Use maps / graphs from the report – state and projections, if available

RelevanceAccess to safe water remains an extremely important global health issue. The risk of outbreaks of waterborne diseases increases where standards of water, sanitation and personal hygiene are low. In Europe 95% of urban populations and 71% of rural populations have access to public sources of drinking-water in 2004. However, in many cases the supply is discontinuous and the water supplied does not meet the microbial and/or chemical guidelines set by the WHO.

Intestinal infectious diseases that are transmitted through food or water are sensitive to climate and weather factors. Such diseases are the main causes of infectious diarrhoea and cause significant amounts of illness each year in Europe. Approximately 20% of the population in western Europe are affected by episodes of diarrhoea each year (IID study team, 2002;van Pelt et al., 2003). Such infections have a significant economic impact through treatment costs and loss of working time (Roberts et al., 2003).

Climate change is also likely to affect the quality of coastal waters, either by changing the natural ecosystem or by changing the quality of the waters draining in the coastal zone. This poses specific risks for the recreational use of bathing waters particularly for the transient tourist population which may not have built-up resistance against endemic water-related diseases or which may be faced with water quality that does not meet stringent conditions imposed in the home country. The quality and safety of seafood produced in this manner is directly linked to the quality of the water in the coastal zone.

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Droughts or extended dry spells can reduce the volume of river flow which may increase the concentration of effluent pathogens posing a problem for the clearance capacity of treatment plants

Various adaptation options are available, which include ensuring access to safe drinking-water, provide sanitation services and establish common standards for surveillance systems and contingency plans to detect and prevent waterborne disease outbreaks. Water-safety plans are suggested to be revised for changing climate conditions. These plans will need to include ensuring safe drinking-water from source to tap through enhanced risk assessment and management. Improved management of water demand in the context of fully integrated planning for river-basin management will become imperative as a first coping mechanism, but it is unlikely to satisfy all the needs created by demographic growth, rising living standards and economic development. Alternative strategies will need to be explored, including reusing treated wastewater, using grey water, harvesting rainwater and, where economically viable, desalinization.

Past trends Key foodborne and waterborne infections are monitored in Europe. The incidence of Salmonella has been declining in many countries, but the incidence of other pathogens is increasing. New pathogens have also emerged in recent years. In Europe the risk of infectious disease outbreaks is relatively rare due to the standard of water treatment and distribution infrastructure. Nevertheless, water-borne outbreaks have the potential to be rather large but the actual disease burden in Europe is difficult to estimate and most likely underestimated. Examples of an increased risk of infectious disease outbreaks have been found in the UK (Reacher et al, 2004), Finland (Miettinen et al, 2001), Czech Republic (Kriz et al, 1998) and Sweden (Lindgren, 2006). Heavy precipitation has been linked to a number of drinking water outbreaks of Cryptosporidium (a pathogen causing a diarrheal illness) in Europe, due to spores infiltrating drinking water reservoirs from springs and lakes and persisting in the water distribution system (Lake et al, 2005, Semenza and Nichols, 2007). In Germany, bacteriological and parasitic parameters spiked considerably during extreme runoff events (Kistemann et al, 2002).

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) produce toxins that can cause human diseases, mainly via consumption of contaminated shellfish. Warmer seas may thus contribute to increased cases of human shellfish and reef-fish poisoning (ciguatera) and poleward expansions of these disease distributions (Lehane and Lewis, 2000)(Hall et al, 2002, Hunter, 2003, Korenberg, 2004). Several studies have confirmed and quantified the effects of high temperatures on common forms of food poisoning, such as salmonellosis (D'Souza et al, 2004)(Kovats et al, 2004)(Fleury et al, 2006). (see table 5..9.3.1) These studies found an approximately linear increase in reported cases with each degree increase in weekly or monthly temperature. Temperature is much less important for the transmission of Campylobacter (Kovats et al, 2005, Louis et al, 2005; Tam et al, 2006). Contact between food and pest species, especially flies, rodents and cockroaches, is also temperature-sensitive. Fly activity is largely driven by temperature rather than by biotic factors (Goulson et al, 2005).

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Table 5.9.3.1 shows the increase of Number of cases of salmonella by degree increase of temperature over a certain threshold

Country % change (95% CI)

Poland 8.7 (4.7, 12.9)Scotland 5.0 (2.2, 7.9)Denmark 0.3 (- 1.1, 1.8)England and Wales

12.5 (11.6, 13.4)

Estonia 9.2 (- 0.9, 20.2)Netherlands 8.8 (8.0, 9.5)Czech Republic 9.2 (7.8, 10.7)Switzerland 9.1 (7.9, 10.4)Slovak Republic 2.5 (- 2.6, 7.8)Spain 4.9 (3.4, 6.4)

Projections With each degree increase of temperature 0.2% of increase of number of diarrhoea cases are expected (REFERENCE).Water stress is projected to increase over central, southern Europe. In EU27, the percentage area under high water stress is likely to increase from 19% today to 35% by the 2070s, and the number of additional people affected by the 2070s is expected to be between 16 millions and 44 millions. Furthermore, in southern Europe and some parts of central and Eastern Europe, summer water flows may be reduced by up to 80%. By 2025 it is estimated that an additional 31 million people will be residing in the coastal zone of the Mediterranean, and that 130 million more will visit the region.

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6. Economic Consequences of Climate Change

6.1 IntroductionThere are a wide range of economic effects that will arise from climate change in Europe. These include effects on the natural environment and associated services (including forests and fisheries), coastal zones, agriculture, tourism, energy, human health and the built environment.

The observed and projected effects of climate change in Europe are different across regions and sectors. Many of these impacts are projected to be adverse and to lead to economic costs (‘losses’), though there will also be economic benefits (gains). There is a strong distributional pattern for future economic effects predicted across Europe, with a significant trend towards more potential negative impacts in South-eastern Europe and the Mediterranean (e.g. in relation to energy demand, agricultural productivity, water availability, health effects, summer tourism, ecosystems, etc). In northern and Western Europe a more complex balance between negative and positive impacts is projected for moderate levels of climate change in the coming decades, potential benefits mainly derived from new farming and tourism opportunities. As climate change continues, eventually the negative impacts are projected to dominate.

It is also evident that even if emissions of greenhouse gases stop today, changes in climate will continue for many decades. Therefore, in addition to mitigation, it is essential to develop proportionate adaptive responses (adaptation) as a means of moderating damages or realising opportunities associated with climate change. There is therefore a need to also consider the economic aspects of adaptation. While there is a wide and increasing amount of information on the impacts of climate change, and on adaptation, there is limited information on economic costs. This section summarises some of the available information, and considers economic indicators with a focus on Europe.

The economic costs of climate change impacts if no adaptation would take place are known as the ‘costs of inaction’. They relate to both direct and indirect climate change impacts, including the associated socio-economic developments. Estimates of these costs and the costs of adaptation are increasingly helping to inform the policy debate, in particular in discussing the level of mitigation efforts (reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases) that is needed globally.

As a first indicator, direct losses from weather-related natural disasters are analysed. Past trends indicate that economic losses due to weather-related natural disasters have increased considerably, particularly in recent years. Since no statistically significant increase in frequency of events like floods has as yet been observed, the increase of economic losses is probably mainly determined by other factors, such as a possible increase in the intensity of flood events, the overall increase in wealth and possibilities for insurance, and increased amount and distribution of infrastructure vulnerable to such disasters. Therefore we have also included a separate indicator on economic losses from floods (which comprise the largest share of weather-related natural disasters in Europe) for which such socio-economic effects have been

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removed (“normalised”) in order to understand the actual weather/climate-related trend better (6.3). It can be seen that by using such a normalisation method the losses are generally lower3. Additional information and analysis are then presented for energy (heating and cooling demand, hydropower), coastal areas, agriculture and forestry, tourism and recreation, health, public water supply, nature and biodiversity and the society as a whole.

A brief overview of the economic effects from climate change across Europe is presented in the map below.

Figure 6.1.1 Summary of Economic Effects across Europe

3 For past trends in losses due to all weather-related natural disasters (6.2), the most recent Munich Re dataset has been used, which is not normalised. It is important to be aware of these differences in the indicators, and the normalised trends of economic losses provide more information on these issues.

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6.2 Direct losses from weather disasters

Key messages About 90% of all natural disasters in Europe occurred since 1980 are directly or

indirectly attributable to weather and climate. About 95 % of economic losses caused by catastrophic events4 result from these weather and climate-related disasters.

The average number of annual disastrous weather and climate-related events in Europe increased by about 65 % over the period 1998-2007 compared with the 1980s decade, while non-weather events such as earthquakes remained stable. An unknown share of this increase can be attributed to climate change, the rest to changes in sensitivity of societal systems.

Overall losses resulting from weather and climate-related events have increased clearly during the last 25 years. Even though social change and economic development are mainly responsible for increasing losses, there is evidence that changing patterns of weather disasters are drivers too. However, it is still not possible to determine the proportion of increase in damages that might be attributed to anthropogenic climate change.

While in the immediate future disaster losses are projected to increase predominantly as a result of societal change and economic development, the most severe effects of human-caused climate change on economic assets are expected in the second half of the century.

Presentation of the main indicator(s)

Figure 6.2.1. Natural disasters in Europe 1980-2007 (Number of events)Source: Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft (Munich Re), Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE, (2008).

4 The following definitions apply (Munich Re): (1) A ‘major catastrophe’ is defined as a 100+ fatalities event with overall losses in excess of US$ 200m; (2) A ‘devastating catastrophe’ is defined as a 500+ fatalities event with overall losses in excess of US$ 500m; (3) A ‘great natural catastrophe’ or ‘GREAT disaster’ is defined as leading to thousands of fatalities with the economy being severely affected and extreme insured losses (UN definition); interregional or international assistance is necessary, hundreds of thousands are made homeless.

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Figure 6.2.2. Natural disasters in Europe 1980-2007 (Percentage distribution)Source: Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft (Munich Re), Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE, (2008).**: Most of all casualties were elderly people who died in the 2003 heat wave/hot summer (surmortality)

RelevanceChanges in the frequency and intensity of storms, floods and extreme temperatures due to climate change affect the financial sector, including the insurance sector, via the amount of compensation payments. This indicator can also help to identify which sectors, e.g. agriculture, forestry, infrastructure, industry or private households, are most affected by damage and/or could be most affected in future.

A recently published report from the United Nation Environment Programmes Finance Initiative (UNEP FI, 2006) estimated that losses from extreme weather events are doubling globally every 12 years. Even though the observed increase in losses is dominated by socio-economic factors (such as population growth, increased habitation in vulnerable areas, increased wealth, increased amount/value of vulnerable infrastructure), there is evidence that changing patterns of natural disasters are drivers too (Figure 6.2.1). It is however not known how much of this increase in losses can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change (Hoeppe et al., 2006).

Insurance mechanisms can play an important role in adapting to climate change by covering the residual risks and providing incentives for risk reduction. Insurance companies have inherent interests in minimizing the impact of climate change. Through their asset management, finance services have great influence on company’s investment decisions. They can therefore warrant that investments made are more climate-resilient and channel investments into projects related to adaptation and mitigation of climate change. On the other hand industries with greatest exposures

Number of events: 3,500 Deaths: 88,500

Overall losses:Euro 197bn

Insured losses:Euro 59bn

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will have to respond increasingly with innovative products, e.g. catastrophe bonds (Bouwer et al., 2007).Figure 6.2.3: Overall and insured losses by weather disasters in Europe, 1980-2007 (in bn Euro). Source: Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft (Munich Re), Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE

Past trends

In Europe, 64 % of all loss events since 1980 are directly attributable to weather and climate events (storms, floods and heat-waves) and 25 % are attributable to wild fires, cold spells, landslides and avalanches, which are also linked to weather and climate. 95 % of the overall losses and 78 % of all deaths caused by disastrous events result from these weather and climate-related events (Figure 6.2.2). The annual average number of these weather and climate-related events in Europe increased during the period 1997-2007 by about 65 % compared with the 1980s decade, while non-climatic events, such as earthquakes remained stable (Figure 6.2.1).

In Europe, overall losses caused by weather and climate-related events have increased during the period 1980-2007 from a decadal average of less than 7.2 billion € (1980-1989) to about 13.7 billion € (1998-2007). Six of the nine years with the largest overall losses in this period have occurred since 1999 (Figure 6.2.3). The insured portion of the losses generally rose, but the increase varied between the years.

Particularly disastrous extreme events in Europe in recent years include the severe flooding in central Europe in August 2002 and the extended heat wave in Europe in 2003. The 2002 flooding of Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Slovakia and

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Hungary resulted in overall losses of about € 16.8 billion and insured losses of about € 3.4 billion (Münchener Rück, 2008). The 2003 heat-wave (Schaer et al., 2004) resulted in ten-thousands of deaths in central Europe additional to the normal numbers (Kovats and Jendritzky, 2006; Robine at al., 2007) and caused significant losses in the agricultural and energy producing sectors. As an example, the total loss of the hot summer 2003 in France (including from power generation, stress on the transport system, stress on forests and other ecosystems including fires, reduced wine production and decreased agricultural productivity) has been estimated at 0.1/0.2 % of GDP equivalent to 15-30 billion euros (Gillet, 2006). The 2003 summer was also estimated to have increased building subsidence claims by 20 % in the UK, with estimated impacts of £30 to £120 million (Hunt and Taylor 2006) and damage to transport infrastructure (rail buckling and road subsidence) of £40 million (Watkiss et all, 2006).

ProjectionsExtreme weather as heat waves, droughts and heavy precipitation is projected to increase in frequency and intensity in Europe and the number of people at risk is projected to grow, too. However, within the next 20 years projected changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme events- depending on the time scale and hazard- remain uncertain. The most severe effects of human-caused climate change are expected in the second half of the century (IPCC, 2007a).

Predicting the future effects of extreme events remains difficult, particularly due to increasing exposure caused by changes in economic development, which increases the value and density of human and physical capital. Therefore disaster losses would rise at a speed more rapidly than average economic growth, stressing the importance of risk reduction (Bouwer et al, 2007).

Nonetheless, the Swiss Re has estimated that in Europe the costs of a 100-year storm event could double by the 2080s with climate change ($50/€40 billion in the future compared with $25/€20 billion today), while average storm losses are estimated to increase by only 16 – 68 % over the same period (Heck et al., 2006).

The possible future increases in damage can enhance the vulnerability of the insurance sector and will have important implications for the role of financial services under climate change (IPCC, 2007b). In high-risk areas people will experience increasing difficulty or costs to get adequate insurance. These are likely to lead to greater levels of uninsured assets, particularly to socially deprived groups, i.e. exacerbating inequalities. Thus governments may need to consider new ways of ensuring that especially poorer people, that may be affected most, still will be able to have insurance and/or may be compensated for possibly increasing losses in future, e.g. through public-private insurance constructions as previously introduced in Belgium and has been proposed in the Netherlands (Bouwer et.al., 2007).

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6.3 Normalised losses from river flood disasters

Key Messages

• Economic losses as consequence of extreme flood events have been dramatic in recent years and economic losses from flooding disasters have significantly increased in Europe during the 1990s and 2000s. The estimated losses in Central Europe in 2002 were EUR 17.4 billion. This amount is more than the GDP of Bulgaria in that year. Recently, in the summer 2007 the cost of the floods in UK was estimated at around EUR 4.3 billion. • Although there is scientific evidence of an ongoing intensification of the water cycle there is no homogeneous trend in extreme river flows in Europe. Analyses of long-term records of flood looses indicate that societal and economic factors clearly play an important role in the observed upward trends in flood-related losses.

Presentation of the main indicator(s)

Figure 6.3.1. EU flood losses per thousand of GDP (in grey decadal average). Source: Barredo (2007).

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Figure 6.3.2. Casualties caused by flood disasters in the EU. Source: Barredo (2007).

Relevance

There is good reason to be concerned about the growth of flood losses in Europe even without taking climate change into account. Economic losses from flood disasters have increased in Europe from the 1970s to the 2000s (Barredo, 2007). In addition to the rising trend in flood damage the effects of unusually severe floods during the 1990s and 2000s increased awareness of the economic consequences of flooding. The 1997 floods in Poland and Czech Republic are responsible for losses of about EUR 5.2 billion. In 2000 Italy, France and Switzerland experienced losses of EUR 9.2 billion. And in 2002 the material flood damage recorded in Germany, Czech Republic and Austria of EUR 17.4 billion has been higher than in any single year before (Kundzewicz et al., 2005). Recently, in summer 2007 the cost of the floods in UK was of about EUR 4.3 billion.

There is no clear evidence for a climate-related trend for floods during the last decades in Europe (Mudelsee et al., 2003; Kundzewicz, 2005). Even if there is scientific evidence of an ongoing intensification of the water cycle (Huntington, 2006) there is no homogeneous trend in extreme river flows at European or regional scale. Analyses of long-term records of flood looses indicate that societal and economic factors play an important role in the observed upward loss trends (Pielke Jr and Downton, 2000; Mills, 2005; Barredo, 2007).

Past trends

Flood disasters in Europe have increased in number and amount of loss from the 1970s to 2000s. The number of major flood disasters during the last 16 years (between 1990 and 2005) is more than twice as large as between 1970 and 1989 (Barredo, 2007, see also Chapter 5). Figure 6.3.1 shows the normalised flood losses in Europe. For the assessment of flood losses it is important to compensate for changes in asset values and exposure over time. Failing to adjust for economic factors yields loss amounts that are not directly comparable over time and a pronounced ever-

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increasing trend for purely economic reasons (Höppe and Pielke Jr, 2006; Muir Wood et al., 2006). In figure 6.3.1 a continuous increase is observed in the decadal average of flood damage normalised by GDP. GDP has been used as surrogate measure of exposure since other direct measures are not available for all the assessed countries.

Current evidence indicates that the growth of flood losses in recent decades is related to both societal factors and climatic factors, but the shares are unclear (Pielke Jr and Downton, 2000; Barredo, 2007). In fact in the period 1970-1999 the trend was not statistically significant, and the increase registered in the last sub-period is a consequence of one single event, the floods in Central Europe of the summer of 2002. Indeed the significance of the observed upward trend is influenced by this large flood disaster. However, because of a series of issues it is still not possible to determine the proportion of the increase in damage that might be attributed either to climate change or societal change and economic development (Höppe and Pielke Jr, 2006). There is agreement in the fact that climate change cannot be understood as the dominant factor for increasing flood losses. In fact there are no conclusive studies that confirm the hypothesis of changes in the occurrence of extreme river flows in Europe. In a hypothetical scenario without climate change total flood losses will continue to increase as consequence of societal and economic factors (Pielke Jr and Downton, 2000).

Figure 6.3.2 shows the yearly number of casualties produced by floods in Europe for the period 1970-2005. It can be stated that there is not a clear trend concerning this indicator. Indeed, the number of deaths is very much dependent on single events, as it is the case for the events of 1970 in Romania and Hungary, 1973 in Spain, and 1998 in Italy. In the last few decades early warning systems and prevention measures have improved evacuation mechanisms in the areas exposed to floods.

Projections

Some preliminary estimates (ABI, 2005) indicate that annual flood losses in Europe could rise to €100 – 120 billion (tenfold) by the end of the century (though flood management could reduce this). Hall et al. (2005) presented a national-scale assessment for England and Wales. Their results predicted an up to 20-fold increase in losses by the 2080s in the scenario with the highest economic growth, and no adaptation. These results include changes in sea level rise, increasing precipitation and increasing economic vulnerability. More detailed disaggregated work under the PESETA project (Feyen et al., 2007) has modelled changes in river flows in a changing climate in Europe, studying two river catchments (Upper Danube and Meuse) in detail.

For the Upper Danube the estimated total damage of a 100-year flood is projected to rise by around 40 % of the current damage estimate (an increase of €18.5 billion) for the high emission scenario (A2) and around 19 % for the intermediate emission scenario (B2) by 2100. The number of people affected in the Upper Danube is projected to increase by 242,000 (around 11 %) for the A2, and 135,000 (around 6 %) for the B2 scenario.

For the Meuse, the potential damage of a 100-year flood is projected to rise by about 14% for the A2 scenario and about 11% for the B2 scenario.

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These regional studies have been expanded with European wide studies on river flooding. The figure below shows the change in damage (averaged over nuts3 level) for floods with 100 year return period for the SRES A2 scenario.

Figure 6.6.3. Change in damage (in €, averaged over nuts3 level) for river floods with 100 year return period for the A2 scenario.

A number of uncertainties should, however, be highlighted with these river catchment and Europe-wide results. First, the numbers are the combined effect of the climate and socio-economic effects, and second, they do not include existing or any future flood protection measures, so strictly speaking they are a measure of potential exposure, not impacts (though they may underestimate potential losses by not incorporating changes in exposure). This highlights a broader issue of climate and socio-economic analysis for future flood risk. Research into flood risks in The Netherlands indicates that potential economic losses from flooding (river and sea) under socio-economic change could increase by 22/45% in 2040 (WL Delft Hydraulics, 2007). The particular role of climate change was not taken into account, because of unknown effects on flood severity and frequency. Moreover, socio-economic factors are expected to dominate future loss records, and will continue to complicate normalisation studies, because of the large inaccuracies associated with actual loss estimates, compared to geophysical data on extreme weather itself (Pielke Jr, 2007).

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6.4. Energy

Key Messages Climate change will alter the relative balance between energy used for space heating and

cooling, while energy use for space heating is currently dominating the use for cooling in Europe (particularly in the North).

Historical data on heating degree days shows a fall in recent years in Europe, indicating a benefit from reduced space heating. Actual energy demand from these changes is also determined by technical and socio-economic factors. At present, no data is available on cooling degree days across Europe, though country specific data shows some increases in cooling degree days over the same period, consistent with greater space cooling demand.

Future projections of climate change suggest reductions in heating degree days in Europe, but increases in cooling degree days. The net change in energy demand is difficult to predict, but there will be strong distributional patterns, with significantly reduced space heating demand in northern Europe against increased space cooling demand in Southern Europe with associated costs and benefits. There may also be increases in energy demand associated with adaptation to climate change, e.g. for water supply.

The projected change in river runoff due to climate change will result in an increase of hydropower production by about 5 % and more in northern Europe and a decrease of about 25 % or more in the south.

Climate change could have a negative impact on the thermal power production as most studies show that summer droughts will be more severe, limiting the availability of cooling water in terms of amount and adequacy of the temperature and power plant efficiency.

Dam safety may be affected under changed climatic conditions with more frequent extreme flows and possibly natural hazards.

Heating and Cooling Demand

Figure 6.4.1: Development of Heating Degree Days (HDD) in Europe, providing an indication of the number of days when heating might be required, based around thresholds of temperature. The relative degree days are weighted by population or area. The HDD figures for individual member states vary considerably, with much higher HDD values for Scandinavian countries, and much lower ones for Southern European countries, though there is a downward trend across both regions.

Source: Eurostat and Joint Research Center. Eurostat Unit G4 'Energy Statistics' and JRC IPSC/Agrifish Unit/MARS-STAT Action".

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RelevanceEnergy industries are the single most important source for greenhouse gas emissions in Europe. The energy sector will also be affected by climate change. Numerous studies have demonstrated that energy demand is linked to climatic conditions, with changing demand for winter heating and summer cooling according to outside temperature (particularly in the domestic sector, but also in service and industry sectors). Data show higher energy consumption (gas and oil) in severe winters in the domestic sector, and higher electricity consumption in high summer temperatures, especially in southern European countries (Eurostat, 2007). The changing climate in Europe is likely to lead to a decrease in the demand for winter heating, but an increase in summer cooling (which can be described as either an impact or an adaptation that in turn reinforces climate change impacts).

Note there are also other factors that affect the apparent temperature, and so the actual energy demand, including wind chill, illumination and cloud cover, and other factors that affect demand including precipitation.

Past trendsEnergy demand has risen very strongly in Europe over recent years, due to technical, socio-economic and economic factors (Eurostat, 2007). Actual final energy consumption for heating since 1997 has been persistently below the projected temperature-corrected consumption. This suggests warmer-than-average years at EU-level, which is confirmed by the information in heating degree-days. The HDD data shows that recent years (since 1996) are all lower than the long-term average. Note at present, the net energy demand in Europe is dominated by space heating rather than cooling. However, space heating is strongly influenced by technical, socio-economic and economic factors, and it is difficult to separate (normalise) the specific effect of temperature from these data5. There is currently less data available on space cooling demand at an EU level. Space cooling relates to human comfort levels, but also cooling for appliances.

The heating degree day indicator above shows a falling trend reflecting the recent warmer years. This translates into a lower winter heating burden (a benefit) due to climate change. However, some care is needed in interpreting these changes as actual changes to energy demand and the economic consequences, because of technical, socio-economic and economic factors.

Projections HDD and CDD (cooling degree days) are parameters that can be derived from results of global climate models. The forecast trends in Europe suggest further reductions in heating degree days, and further increases in cooling degree days, due to mean average temperature increases over future years. For cooling, there may be additional peaks associated with heat-waves. For Europe, the overall changes in energy and economic costs (at a net level) are predicted to be modest in the short-medium term, due to the aggregated effects of decrease winter heating demand vs. increased summer cooling demand. However, strong distributional patterns are expected across Europe – with rising cooling

5 For example, the effects of population, housing density, housing stock, insulation levels, technology, equipment penetration level, efficiency of heating or cooling units, behaviour, perceived comfort levels, energy prices, income

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(electricity) demand in summer in Southern Europe, compared to reduced heating (energy) demand in winter in Northern Europe (Alcamo et al, 2007) – summarised in the figure below. This translates in likely net benefit to Northern Europe because of the high current space heating levels, but net negative impacts for Southern Europe.

Figure 6.4.2. Projections of energy demand for various time horizons in EuropeSource: Information from Alcamo et al, 2007. IPCC AR4

The actual net economic costs are more complex to estimate, due to differences in energy sources6. Winter heating demand is primarily from fossil fuel use, whilst summer cooling from electricity, and there may be additional issues of peak demand levels in Southern Europe in the summer7. Adaptation has a role to play here –particularly through alternatives to mechanical air conditioning, e.g. through passive ventilation, building design, planning, etc. and is a key aspect to mitigation –adaptation linkages. Finally, there may also be an emerging issue of energy use increasing from water supply (pumping, desalination, recycling, irrigation, water transfers). Again, these are

6 There are complex issues in predicting future energy demand and prices, because of the need to predict future energy and electricity prices (under future mitigation scenarios), and because of the complex relationships between technology, socio-economic trends, etc.7 Whilst the overall energy balance may not change that greatly in Europe from climate change, e.g. with the reduction in energy for winter heating vs. the increase in energy for summer cooling, there could still be important economic effects. Winter space heating is provided by fuels (coal, oil, gas) that can be stored. Summer cooling is provided by electricity, which cannot be stored very easily, and so electricity generation must match electricity demand. A rise in peak summer electricity demand, associated with cooling in southern Europe, could increase the plant peak capacity needed, which would be expected to lead to higher marginal prices at times of peak demand, e.g. during peak summer temperatures and heat-waves.

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likely to be greater in Southern Europe where overall precipitation levels are predicted to fall. There is also the potential for extreme weather events (e.g. storms) which also increase the risk of energy infrastructure failure.

Hydropower

The production of electricity is strongly dependent on water, both for cooling in power plants and for hydropower. In some areas, hydropower may benefit from increased hydropower potential, while in other countries this potential will decrease due to reduced river runoff. The generation of electric power in thermal (in particular coal-fired and nuclear) power stations often relies on large volumes of water for cooling. During heat waves and drought periods the use of cooling water may be restricted if limit values for temperature are exceeded, which may force plant operators to work at reduced capacity or even temporarily close plants, with potentially serious consequences for supply.

In 2005 hydropower contributed 16.3 % of the electricity production in the European countries, 10.2 % in EU-25 (Eurelectric, 2007). The share of hydropower in the electricity production is generally high in the northern countries and countries in the Alps. In 2001, the EU agreed that in 2010 21 % of the total electricity production should come from renewable resources (EU, 2006). In 2005, the share of renewable energy sources was 15 %, out of this hydropower represented 2/3 (Eurelectric, 2007).

Dam and reservoir safety may be affected under changed climatic conditions by more frequent extreme flows. Evaluating changes in reservoir safety is complex; a flash flood may be critical to a small reservoir or river weir, but might not influence a large reservoir at all, as it would be more vulnerable to longer episodes. Regional studies of climate change impacts on reservoir safety show varying results (Veijalainen and Vehviläinen 2006; Andréasson et al. 2006).

Over the 20th century, annual river flow have shown an increasing trend in northern parts of Europe, with increases mainly in winter, and a slightly decreasing trend in southern parts of Europe (Section 5.7.1 River flow). These changes are linked with observed changes in precipitation patterns and temperature. To the extent climate change affects river flow, it will also affect hydropower production.

Since the 1970s, annual energy production of some existing hydropower stations in Europe has decreased, in particular in Portugal, Spain and other Southern European countries (UCTE 1999). This reduction has been attributed to changes in average discharge; but whether this is due to temporary fluctuations or already the consequences of long-term changing climate conditions is not yet known (Lehner et al., 2001). .

The two most relevant European studies directly addressing hydropower are the EuroWasser study from 2001, covering all Europe (Lehner et al. 2001, 2005), and the Nordic Climate and Energy study, covering Scandinavia, Iceland and the Baltic states (Bergström et al. 2007). Both studies use results from both the ECHAM4 and HadCM3 models. EuroWasser analyses one “business-as-usual” emission scenario (IPCC-IS92a), while the Climate and Energy study analyses both the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. Another regional study is GLOWA-Danube, aimed at establishing an integrated decision support system for water management in the upper Danube

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(upstream Passau) under global climate change, including the hydropower sector (Mauser and Strasser 2007).

The EuroWasser study demonstrates a clear north-south gradient, generally giving increased hydropower production in northern Europe and reduced production in the southern part. Although there are large local differences between the outcomes for the two models, especially in the Alps and part of the Mediterranean region, both show increases up to 25 % or more in north Europe, and reductions by 25 % or more in southern parts by 2070.

The Climate and Energy simulations also project increases in hydropower production in Scandinavia for both emissions scenarios and both climate models, but with more detail and another regional distribution due to the use of RCMs (Regional Circulation Models) for downscaling. Generally the increase is largest in the western coastal regions. The figure below shows the hydropower production by regions for the reference period (1961-1990) and for 2070-2100 based on the two GCMs (Global Circulation Models).

Figure 6.4.3. Changes in hydropower production in Scandinavia. In addition to climate change impacts, this indicator will reflect changes in hydropower system configuration and changes in demand pattern.( Source: Mo et al (2006))

Cooling water for power plants

Decreased precipitation is expected to have a negative impact on the electricity generation sector where rivers provide the cooling water. Power stations have to be shut down when water temperatures exceed certain thresholds. Electricity production has already been reduced in various locations in Europe during very warm summers (e.g. 2003, 2005 and 2006) (BMU, 2007; Lehner et al., 2005).

During the 2003 hot summer the cooling capacity of several power stations in the Netherlands and France was threatened as a result of the high water temperatures and

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Figure 6.4.4. Projected changes in hydropower production potential in Europe, for one scenario (XXXX) and two models. Blue denotes increase, red reduction. (Source: Lehner et al (2001; 2005)).

low river level. The requirement that cooling water discharge may be no warmer than 30C meant that several companies could only satisfy this criterion by reducing their production capacity. The three hydroelectric power stations on the Meuse, Nederijn and Vecht also had to run on a very limited capacity for several weeks (10–25 % of normal). The combined result was a threatened shortage of electricity in the Netherlands. A water temperature of 23°C applies as the critical limit for the intake of cooling water. Due to the temperature rise that has already occurred in recent decennia, the number of days in the year that the water temperature is above 23°C has also increased. In 2003, a tight situation even arose for a period of almost 40 days when the water temperature was above 24°C.

It is highly likely that electricity companies will experience greater problems with their cooling water systems due to the rise in temperature and more frequent low discharges.

Figure 6.4.5. Trend in the number of days per year when the temperature of the water in the Rhine was higher than 23°C during the period 1909–2003 (Source: MNP, 2006)

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6.5. Coastal Areas

Key Messages• Coastal flooding can lead to important climate-related losses. By 2100, exposed population in the main coastal European cities to the combined effects of sea level rise and storm surge is expected to be about 4 million people and the exposed assets more than 2 trillion € (without adaptation).• Future projections of sea level rise and storm surge show potentially large increases in the risk of coastal flooding. These could have potentially large economic costs, with recent estimates of 18 billion Euro/year for Europe in 2080 under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. The same estimates indicate that adaptation could significantly reduce this risk to around 1 billion Euro.

RelevanceCoastal zones in Europe contain large human populations and significant socioeconomic activities. They also support diverse ecosystems that provide important habitats and sources of food. One third of the European Union (EU) population is estimated to live within 50 km of the coast, and some 140,000 km2 of land is currently within 1 m of sea level. Significantly inhabited coastal areas in countries such as the Netherlands, England, Denmark, Germany and Italy are already below normal high-tide levels, and more extensive areas are prone to flooding from storm surges. Climate change is an additional pressure and is likely to have significant impacts on coastal zones, particularly via sea level rise and changes in the frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events, such as storms and associated surges.

ProjectionsThere are estimates of the physical impacts and economic costs to coasts in Europe from sea level rise and flooding storm events. Results using the DIVA database and model produced from the DINAS-COASTS DG research project ((DINAS-COAST Consortium, 2006; Hinkel and Klein, 2007; Nicholls et al., 2007a; Vafeidis et al., 2004; 2007) have been developed for Europe in the PESETA project (Richards and Nicholls, 2007). They show impacts increasing dramatically without adaptation: in the 2080s under the A2 SRES scenario and estimate around 19,000 km2 of land in Europe could be permanently lost, leading to some 1.4 million people in Europe experiencing coastal flooding each year. The economic costs of these events are estimated at 18 billion Euro/year (current prices)8. Large areas of coastal wetlands are also threatened, with highest relative losses on the Mediterranean and Baltic Coasts. However, adaptation has significant benefits. These strategies include (Nicholls et al., 2007b): coastal defences (e.g. physical barriers to flooding and coastal erosion such as dikes and flood barriers); realignment of coastal defences landwards; abandonment (managed or unmanaged); measures to reduce the energy of near-shore waves and currents; coastal morphological management; and resilience-building strategies. Despite some difficulties in estimation, there is an extensive literature reporting thedirect cost of adaptation to sea level rise and even estimating the optimal levels ofprotection (based on cost benefit analysis. (e. Tol, 2004; Anthoff et al., 2006)

8 This includes the combined effect of climate and socio-economic scenarios.

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Figure 6.5.1. People flooded (thousands/year) across Europe (coastal areas)Top Baseline. Bottom. for the IPCC SRES A2 scenario, 2080s (ECHAM4), without adaptation (Richards and Nicholls et al, 2007 from PESETA)

Richards and Nicholls, 2007). Using the same climate and sea level projection as above (A2 scenario in the 2080s), with adaptation included and optimised, the DINAS-COAST Consortium (2006) suggests that the land loss falls to less than 1,000 km2 (and the economic costs fall from 18 billion to around 1 billion Euro/year). There are costs of adaptation (coastal protection), estimated at some 1 billion Euro/year also – but these achieve significant reductions in the residual damages.

Recent work for the OECD (2008) has also looked at current and future major coastal cities with sea level rise (0.5 metres global average) and storm surge, and assessed exposure to a 1 in 100 year flood event, looking at population and asset value exposed now and with sea level rise in 2100 for Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Hamburg, London, Copenhagen, Helsinki, Provence, Athens, Napoli, Lisbon, Porto, Barcelona, Stockholm, and Glasgow. For these cities, the exposed population rise from 2.3 million to 4.0 million, and the exposed assets from $360 to $2220 billion (though the values are dominated by London, Amsterdam, and Rotterdam).

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6.6. Agriculture and ForestryKey Messages• The hot summer of 2003 in Europe is estimated to have led to $15 billion in economic losses to farming, livestock and forestry from the combined effects of drought, heat stress and fire. In the future, extreme events as a consequence of climate change are expected to increase..• Climate-related increases in crop yields are expected mainly in northern Europe, but with reductions in the Mediterranean and the south-west Balkans. These show that south and west Europe could experience a decrease of yields of 10% or more, though there is an equivalent improvement of yields in Nordic countries.• There are likely to be future changes in forest growth – and so economic consequences - with climate change, though projections of future net changes in Europe are uncertain. There are also observed changes in forest fires, and these lead to economic costs through losses and through the costs of fire fighting. Forest fires are likely to increase under a warmer climate, with increased economic costs.

AgricultureAgriculture accounts for only a small part of gross domestic production (GDP) in Europe, and it is considered that the overall vulnerability of the European economy to changes that affect agriculture is low (EEA, 2006). Nonetheless, the agriculture sector has a strong influence on other sectors, and moreover, effects of climate change may still be substantial at a European level because of the spatial distribution of changes. Agricultural indicators were included in 5.6, and historic trends are well captured by Eurostat. The overall economic indicators are partly related to total yield and market prices, though complicated by many other factors9.Climate model studies indicate greater stresses will become apparent in southern European (Mediterranean) and southerly eastern European countries with a changing climate, due to the larger climate signals that these areas receive (with higher than average increases in temperature for Europe), and also greater reductions in summer water availability (and perhaps increases in drought), leading to lower yields. Agriculture is a more significant sector for these countries in terms of employment and GDP, which could compound these effects10. In contrast, the agricultural systems in Western Europe are considered to have lower sensitivity to climate change, and the modelling predictions show likely opportunities (yield increases and wider agricultural crops) for Northern Europe. The recent IPCC 4th assessment report (2007b) concludes that in Northern Europe, climate change is initially projected to bring mixed effects, including some benefits such as increased crop yields and increased forest growth. However, as climate change continues, its negative impacts are likely to outweigh its benefits.Most of the analyses now build in (autonomous) adaptation, reflecting a likely trend of producers altering practices and even crop types by region as climate changes. Several studies show the likely spatial patterns outlined above, with a strong distribution of yield changes across Europe, as found in the recent PESETA project, (Iglesias and Garrote, 2008), which has forecasts for regional yield changes for 2020

9 For example, agricultural subsidies, labour and production costs, global price changes, production improvements, consumer demand, etc.10 However, there will be socio-economic development at the same time as Europe’s climate changes. This highlights the need to consider a changing climate alongside future projections of socio-economic development. Moreover, agricultural efficiency and productivity are likely to increase with technological development.

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to 2080. The analysis gives indications of the general spatial pattern of changes in agriculture yields across Europe using two different models. These show that south and west Europe could experience a decrease of yields of 10% or more, though there is an equivalent improvement of yields in Nordic countries11.

Figure 6.6.1. Simulated crop yield changes by 2080s relative to the period 1961-1990 according to a high emission scenario (IPCC A2) and two different climate models: (left) HadCM3/HIRHAM, (right) ECHAM4/RCA3Source: PESETA project. http://peseta.jrc.es/docs/Agriculture.html. A. Iglesias/L. Garrote

The IPCC (Alcamo et al, 2007) summarises that climate-related increases in crop yields are expected mainly in northern Europe, e.g., wheat: +2 to +9% by 2020, +8 to +25% by 2050, +10 to +30% by 2080, while the largest reductions of all crops are expected in the Mediterranean, the south-west Balkans and in the south of European Russia. In southern Europe, general decreases in yield and increases in water demand are expected for spring sown crops. The impacts on autumn sown crops are more geographically variable; yield is expected to strongly decrease in most southern areas, and increase in northern or cooler areas (e.g., wheat: +3 to +4% by 2020, -8 to +22% by 2050, -15 to +32% by 2080).Changes in agricultural productivity result also in changes in subsidy dependency. Currently, however, there is no detailed data on subsidy distribution by crop and region available which would allow analysis of the relationship between climate change, yield and subsidies.Recent valuation studies in the UK predict increases in yield and also revenue in the 2020s, but with these declining by the 2050s and with revenue changes becoming negative in nearly all regions by the 2080s with expected economic losses up to £24 million/year (Hamilton et al, 2006), particularly in more southern areas where water

11 The results show the increase in growing season, but also higher minimum temperatures in winter lead to higher yields in higher latitudes, ranging from +3% to +70%. On the downside are the Mediterranean countries with a shortening of the growing season and decreases between -2% and -22%, all findings subject to considerable uncertainty.

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becomes increasingly limiting. The study also indicated that similar agricultural losses could occur as a result of flooding (without adaptation).However, while these models generally consider the effects of projected changes in temperature and CO2 fertilisation, they do not fully consider issues of water availability, and rarely consider extreme events. The latter could be important for Europe in relation to heat extremes and floods. As an example, the droughts of 1999 caused losses of more than Euro 3 billion in Spain (EEA, 2004) and the hot summer of 2003 in Europe is estimated to have led to $15 billion in economic losses to farming, livestock and forestry from the combined effects of drought, heat stress and fire (Munich Re, 2004)12. Finally, the role of autonomous and planned adaptation is extremely important for agriculture – and has been studied more intensively for this sector than any other (with the possible exception of coastal defences). While most analysis considers short-term autonomous adaptation (to optimise production) there are also potential long-term adaptations in the form of major structural changes to overcome adversity caused by climate change13. These are usually the result of a planned strategy. There are a number of studies that show the benefits of adaptation to farmers in reducing negative impacts by at least 20 %, and even turning losses into gains (though it is highlighted that such studies rarely explicit provide a cost for adaptation).

ForestryForestry is also a small part of European GDP, though in a large part of Europe, forestry represents an important economic sector and also provides potential for carbon sequestration. Forests in Europe are likely to be affected by climate change, both in terms of distribution and species composition. Alcamo et al (2007) expect that forest area will expand in the north, but contract in the south, so there will be positive and negative effects (see 5.6 (Agriculture and Forestry). Eurostat measures a number of indicators for forests14, some of which can at least partly be linked to climate change, e.g. physical impact indicators of forest yield and condition, and windstorm damage and forest fires. While the economic effects of timber production can be captured using market prices, forests (natural and managed) play a much greater role than timber alone, and there is a need to progress towards the total economic value of forestry including full ecosystem goods and services and user and non-user values. In addition to yield changes, there will be potential economic consequences from forest fires (see 5.6). Forest fires are likely to increase under a warmer climate, with an enlargement of the fire prone area and a lengthening of the fire season. As well as the economic losses (lost production) from forest fires, there are also direct costs of fire fighting. These were evident in the summer 2003 heat-wave in France, which increased the costs of fighting forest fires (for the Ministry of interior) to 179 Million Euros, from 83 Million Euros in a normal year (Gillet, 2006).

12 Though overall positive effects on the UK agricultural, fruit and viticulture industries are also estimated to have occurred (Metroeconomica, 2005), with estimated economic benefits of £64 million, though this included a mix of positive and negative effects – though the authors note that it is not possible to conclude with any confidence that these gains / losses are wholly attributable to the weather conditions that prevailed in the summer of 2003.13 Adaptation can also be undertaken at different scales i.e. farm level, regional level and national level. Note there are differences between models in the way that adaptation is included, e.g. between a spatial / Ricardian, or a structural approach. 14 Eurostat Pocketbooks – Forestry statistics 2007 edition

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6.7. Tourism and recreation Key Messages • Changes in climate are starting to impact upon the attractiveness of many of the

Mediterranean’s major resorts, whilst improving at the same time in other regions.• Future projections of climate change suggest that the Mediterranean tourism

suitability will decline during the key summer months, though there will be an increase during other seasons (Spring and Autumn). This can produce shifts in the major flows of tourism within the EU, which will be important in regions where tourism is a dominant economic sector, though adaptation responses such as economic diversification will be critical.

• The tourism industry will face significant adaptation costs such as those incurred for producing artificial snow or implementing economic diversification. Adaptation measures will be driven by climate change and socio-economic-related factors and their sustainability will also have to be assessed in view of the associated environmental impacts.

Summer tourismMass tourism is closely associated with climate, for both the source of tourists and their destination. At present, the predominant (summer) tourist flows in Europe are from north to south, to the coastal zone, which helps to transfer capital. However, coastal and mountain tourism are the segments that are most vulnerable to climate change in Europe, and the Mediterranean region is the world’s most popular holiday region: it attracts some 120 million visitors from Northern Europe each year, the largest international flow of tourists on the globe and their spending is in excess of 100 billion Euros. The changes in and differences between the suitability of regions (or specific locations) for summer-time tourism can be assessed by using the Tourism Comfort Index (TCI). The TCI is an index, ranging from 0 to 100, based upon a range of climate variables that reflects the suitability related to an individual’s bioclimatic comfort. It can be used to analyse the variability in tourism attractiveness between locations. There are large differences within Europe and between seasons as to the attractiveness for tourism. During the key summer months (June, July and August) the Mediterranean has a close-to-ideal climate for tourism, with TCI values close to the maximum value of 100. This ideal climate is one of the important drivers for the current holiday market, next to cultural, social, landscape and other factors. With growing income and increasing leisure time, the tourism industry in Europe is expected to continue to grow. However, temperature rise is likely to change summer destination preferences in Europe. Seasonality is a key issue in tourism, and the summer months are the dominant period for the Mediterranean region and Europe as a whole. The effect of climate change is likely to make outdoor activities in northern Europe more attractive, while summer temperatures and heat waves in the Mediterranean, potentially exacerbated by water supply issues, may lead to a redistribution or a seasonal shift in tourism away from the current summer peak.

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1961-1990 2071-2100

Figure 6.7.1. Simulated Conditions for Summer Tourism in Europe for 1961-1990 (left) and 2071-2100 (right) according to a High-Emissions Scenario (IPCC A2)Source: PESETA project. http://peseta.jrc.es/docs/Tourism.html. (P. Martens/B. Amelung/A. Moreno, 2008).

Data from climate change model experiments show a shift northward of tourism during the 21st Century and the increasing bi-modal distribution of tourism over the seasons in the Mediterranean (i.e. either side of a significant dip in summer). At the same time northern European locations (the current source area for most tourism) shows increasing attractiveness for tourism. The PESETA analysis shows the direction of potential tourism shifting towards the end of the century (2071-2100) under the IPCC SRES A2 high emission scenario. The maps indicate significant potential shifts in the climatic suitability for tourism, with the belt of excellent summer conditions moving from the Mediterranean towards northern Europe. However, the reduction in attractiveness of current summer resorts is likely to be at least partially offset by increased opportunities for tourism in northern Europe. In the shoulder seasons (Spring and Autumn, not shown here), TCI scores are generally projected to increase throughout Europe and particularly in Southern Mediterranean countries, which could compensate for some losses experienced in summer.The assessments above reflect the tourism suitability. Projections of the actual changes that are likely to occur in the future, and the economic implications, are much harder to assess. Much will depend on the flexibility of tourists and institutions such as school holidays. If summer remains the predominant season for tourism activities in Europe, major shifts of tourist flows may eventually occur from the Mediterranean to more northern areas in Europe. However, shifts in the holiday season may be the dominant form of adaptation. If these, as well as other societal changes (e.g. ageing population), allow for a more flexible timing of holidays among a large share of the population, then some of these effects may be offset, i.e. climate change may be beneficial for the Mediterranean tourist industry if it levels out demand, reducing the

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summer peak, while increasing occupancy in the shoulder seasons. In the absence of such adjustments, the Mediterranean tourist industry will be among the losers. Other work (Hamilton and Tol, 2006) has investigated the potential economic effects from climate change on tourism. Their studies shows an increase in the number of inbound tourists due to population and economic growth in the rest of the world, and that the influence of climate change may be rather to change the rate of relative growth in Northern regions of Europe compared with the Mediterranean. The study also shows a potential shift towards a greater level of domestic tourism in regions with increasing attractiveness (e.g. within the UK). There are some other climate-related factors that could be important for tourism. Water shortages due to extended droughts could potentially affect tourism flows, especially in southeast Mediterranean where the maximum demand coincides with the minimum availability of water resources.

Winter Snow Industry

There is also a major winter sports tourism industry in Europe, with the ski industry in the European Alps and Pyrenees attracting millions of tourists each year. This industry is a significant contribution to the economy of Alpine countries (OECD, 2007), generating close to EUR 50 billion in annual turnover. Studies project widespread reductions in snow-cover over the 21 century (IPCC, 2007), see Chapter 5.3. These changes will affect the winter sports industry in Europe and its financial viability, because of the availability of natural snow or conditions suitable for making snow. A recent study for the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (Abegg et al, 2007), reports that the number of snow reliable ski areas in Austria, France, Germany, Italy, and Switzerland are projected to drop from approximately 600 to 500 if temperatures rise by 1.2°C, to approximately 400 if temperatures rise by 2°C, and to approximately 200 in a +4°C scenario. There are already responses in place (e.g. artificial snow making, although adaptation options also pose sustainability and environmental problems), and these increased in recent years. For example, in France almost half a billion Euros were spent between 1990 and 2004 on artificial snow-making installations, while in Austria, approximately EUR 800 millions were spent between 1995 and 2003. The introduction of these machines is also driven by other socio-economic factors (increasing the reliability of resorts to increase revenues and expand their ski areas beyond previous natural limits). These measures have limits and the costs of their use are likely to rise non-linearly as temperatures increases. The energy use and associated greenhouse gas emissions add to the mitigation challenge. Furthermore, the water use of snow-machine is increasing and already negatively affects current water resources, which could be exacerbated in the future due to climate-induced decreases in water availability. Other adaptation measures exist, including economic diversification within or outside the tourism sector, e.g. diversification from winter sports to other recreational or seasonal activities.

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6.8.Health Key Messages• Climate change is likely to affect human health, either directly related to the physiological effects of heat and cold, or indirectly, for example, through the increased transmission of food-borne / vector-borne pathogens, or through the flooding. These changes will have economic consequences, e.g. through medical costs, lost time at work, and additional spending to avoid pain and suffering.• Adaptation measures such as surveillance and outbreak control already exist, and these build on well-establish public health approaches. Most adaptation measures appear to be low cost, though further work is needed to assess the full cost of adaptation.

The potential health effects of climate, such as from the 2003 heat wave, have been well documented. There is some uncertainty over the net effects (the sum of heat and cold effects) for Europe under a changing climate, and especially the distribution of benefits across Europe. There are literature estimates (e.g. the WHO global burden of disease (McMichael, 2004, IPCC, 2007, and the recent PESETA project: AEA, 2007): the latter estimated that the economic effects of climate change in Europe could be significant with potentially large economic costs (billions of Euro/year) from summer mortality by the 2080s, though these will be offset by potentially larger economic benefits from the reduction in winter mortality. However, populations may partly acclimatise to future temperatures, and there is also the potential for adaptation beyond this, for example with the current heat alert systems across many EEA member countries (as implemented in France after the 2003 heat-wave, and also in other member states). It is also highlighted, however, that heat related health concerns are likely to lead to higher use of energy and air conditioning.

Climate sensitive infectious diseases, such as Salmonella, have the potential to increase under a changing climate. Some emerging work (AEA, 2007, based on Kovats, 2004) shows that the disease burden in Europe could be significant, and have a potentially high cost (potentially several billion Euro a year by the period 2070-2100 through medical costs, lost time at work, willingness to pay to avoid pain and suffering, and through the small number of cases of food poisoning that are fatal), though adaptation offers a low cost means to reduce these.

Waterborne diseases may rise with increase in extreme rainfall due to sewage water overflows. Higher water temperatures may also result in increased occurrence of harmful algal blooms, and increase the faecal bacteria and incidence of pathogens. This will affect drinking water intakes and water bodies used for recreation due to a bad odour and taste of drinking water and occurrence of unsafe drinking and bathing waters.

The increasing intensity of heavy rainfall is likely to make extreme floods more frequent in some areas of Europe (see earlier section). While the number of deaths and injuries from floods are relatively low in Europe, flood events do have wider effects, notably in wider well being (mental health and stress and depression). There is some emerging quantification and valuation of the latter well-being impacts (AEA, 2007, based on impact studies such as Reacher et al 2004), which show that without

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adaptation, baseline costs from coastal flooding could be significant (several billion per year). However, adaptation is likely to reduce these very significantly.Climate-induced changes in the potential distribution of malaria are projected mainly in poor and vulnerable regions globally. In Europe localised outbreaks are possible in areas where the disease has been eradicated, but vectors are still present (Reiter et al., 2004), though strengthening of effective surveillance and prevention programmes (adaptation) should ensure these are minimised. There is emerging work assessing climate change impacts on the distribution of vector-borne diseases in Europe (malaria, leishmaniasis, West Nile virus) from the EDEN project.

Finally, there are a number of emerging health issues from climate change in Europe, where quantification and valuation have not been explored. A warmer climate may have important effects on air quality in Europe (for ozone formation). The seasonality of allergic disorders may change with implications of direct costs in terms of over the counter medications for allergic rhinitis, and wider economic costs to individuals.

Data on the costs of surveillance and outbreak control (adaptation costs) are starting to emerge and there are adaptation strategies that can be implemented by health sectors (e.g. see the cCASHh project), most of which are likely to build on well-established public health approaches, though further work is needed to fully assess the costs of adaptation. Most adaptation measures appear to be low cost (e.g. provision of information), but there is the potential for some to involve potentially costly large-scale vaccination or other prevention programs against vector borne disease. Some recent studies have considered the potential direct and indirect costs of health care (e.g. Bosello et al, 2006) and show that these are likely to be relatively small for Europe in terms of GDP. They also highlight that there are likely to be strong distributional implications for climate change and health, with poorer countries being either more exposed or more vulnerable.

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6.9. Public water supply and drinking water management

Key Messages• Economic consequences of climate change impacts will be particularly pronounced for those areas where increases in water stress are projected. The percentage area under high water stress in Europe is likely to increase from 19% today to 35% by the 2070s, and the additional number of people affected by the 2070s is expected to be between 16 millions and 44 millions.• Evaluation studies of economic consequences of increasing water stress are now emerging. They indicate that adaptation costs are generally significantly lower than the economic losses incurred otherwise.

Changes in water demand strongly depend on economic and sectoral growth and societal development. Household water demand is likely to increase with climate change, with more water used for garden watering and personal hygiene, although a clear separation exists between components that are sensitive to climate change (showering, gardening, lawn sprinkling, and pool filling), and components that are non-sensitive (e.g. dish washing, clothes washing). The general increase in wealth and the generally hotter and longer summers may also increase the number of golf courses, swimming pools and aqua parks, further increasing water demand. Problems of water supply in tourist resorts are becoming increasingly common (see also discussion in Tourism section earlier), in some cases tankers now have to transport water to tourist islands, and the water deficits may be further increased by climate change and increasing demand from other sectors.

Changes in the quantity and quality of river flows and groundwater recharge may affect the drinking water supply systems (see section 5.7 Water quantity and 5.8 Water quality and freshwater ecology). Drinking water providers will be affected by changed flow regimes and reduced annual water availability. Climate change may alter the reliability of raw water sources by changing the frequency of low flows and recharge of groundwater.

Hot summers such as 2003 may provide an indication of future climate impacts on peak water demand. In the Netherlands public water supply increased by 15 % in August compared with previous years. Other studies indicate that the increase of household water demand may be rather small. Downing et al. (2003) concluded that per capita domestic demand in England could rise by an extra 2 to 5 % during the coming 20 to 50 years as a result of climate change.

During the summer 2007 Greece declared a state of emergency on the Cyclades islands, including the popular holiday destinations of Mykonos and Santorini, because of water shortages caused by a drought and heat-wave. Turkey's two major cities were struggling with water shortages after record low levels of snow and rain in the winter and searing summer temperatures. Reservoirs were down to less than 5% full in the capital (Ankara, home to 4 million people) according to the country's water authority. In March 2008 Cyprus was exploring the possibilities of transportation of water in tankers from Lebanon after to survive chronic water shortage brought on by a two-year drought and unseasonal warm weather.

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High water temperature, low water flows and therefore less dilution of pollutants may have severe consequences for the quality of drinking water and recreation activities related to water. Saline intrusion in coastal aquifers making the water unsuitable for drinking water may be exacerbated by future sea level rise.

These effects do have economic consequences, especially in areas where there are predicted increases in water stress. Alcamo et al, 2007 (IPCC, WGII) predict that the percentage area under high water stress in Europe is likely to increase from 19% today to 35% by the 2070s, and the additional number of people affected by the 2070s is expected to be between 16 millions and 44 millions.

Some studies on the economic consequences of increasing water stress are emerging. Work in the UK has estimated the economic losses to households of foregone water use due to the anticipated water deficit by 2100 in south-east England (Wade et al, 2006) at between £41 and 388 million a year (depending on scenario), but that the costs of largely (but not entirely) eliminating these deficits would be only £6 to £39 million/year (effectively the costs of adaptation).

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6.10. Nature and Biodiversity

Key Messages• While methods for valuation of ecosystems are improving, it is as yet not possible to cover the full range of ecosystem productivity, goods and services, and the economic benefits to users and non-users.

The functioning of an ecosystem service provision from many natural and semi-natural ecosystems in Europe are under threat from climate change and other pressures (see Section 5.5). Such services include food and water supply, climate regulation and species preservation. Particularly sensitive areas include the Arctic region of Europe, mountain regions, and various coastal zones across Europe, especially in the Baltic and parts of the Mediterranean.

These ecosystem services can be divided into supporting, provisioning, regulating and cultural. Functions attributed to provisioning services have a direct market value. For example, the ability of ecosystems to provide food (agriculture, fisheries), fibre (timber) and fresh water to the population can be valued at market prices. Other services, such as regulating and cultural services and the ability of an ecosystem to provide natural habitat for flora and fauna and biodiversity loss, have however no direct market price, though it is possible in some cases to approximate the value of these functions.

Past and ongoing research tries to value ecosystem loss, reflecting ecosystem productivity, goods and services, but also the wider use of ecosystems, increasingly using the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment framework (MEA, 2005). MEA (2005) uses the rate of extinction to illustrate some of the changes in ecosystem services. This rate, though, cannot adequately monitor medium-term changes, as it tracks the number of extinctions per thousand species per millennium. There is also a growing body of more general economic studies on ecosystem and biodiversity. This includes greater numbers of primary valuation studies (e.g. Eftec, 2002), and work studying where biodiversity loss has led to the loss/degradation of ecosystem services and consequently to economic costs (Kettunen and Brink, 2006). However, while methods for valuation of ecosystems are improving, as yet they fail to cover the full range of ecosystem productivity, goods and services, and direct and indirect economic benefits to users and non-users. Nonetheless, there are some illustrative values showing potentially very high estimates (e.g. IPCC, 2007). Hence, at this stage it is extremely difficult to put forward accessible indicators for the economic effects on ecosystems associated with climate change.

Following commitments made at the G8+5 meeting of Environment Ministers in Potsdam in March 2007, preparatory work for a Review on the Economics of Biodiversity Loss is taking place. The Review will evaluate the costs of the loss of biodiversity and the associated decline in ecosystem services worldwide. It will consider the failure to take protective measures, versus the costs of effective conservation and sustainable use. The Review aims to achieve a better understanding of why action to halt the loss of biodiversity would make economic sense.

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6.11. The Costs of Climate Change for SocietyKey Messages• The total projected economic losses of the impacts of climate change are difficult to assess, and the literature shows a very wide range of results. Due to the many uncertainties involved, there is not one single “true” value that can be reported by science to policy makers.• Macro-economic and micro/sectoral economic assessments rely on different methodologies for different levels of analysis and purposes. They provide complementary estimates to better inform policy makers.

The costs of climate change will accrue to different individuals, in different sectors, in different places, and at different times. Due to this complexity, the total projected economic losses of the impacts of climate change (globally or in Europe alone) cannot be easily assessed, and the literature shows a very wide range of results. In particular, the quantification of economic damage is a difficult task. The transposition of physical impacts into monetary terms is difficult and sometimes contentious step, given that climate change impacts involve both market and non-market goods and services, covering health, environmental and social effects, and potential large-scale climatic events (potentially irreversible in nature). There are different ways that the costs of inaction can be expressed. The most common ways of defining the cost of inaction to climate change are either as ‘total costs’ or ‘marginal costs’.

Total costs are usually measured as the discounted aggregate of all future welfare changes over some planning horizon. At the global level, there is an emerging literature and studies have presented total costs of climate change impacts to the world economy as a percentage change. For some regions, climate change could result in economic benefit for some of the sectors in the short to medium term. However, the evidence reported from the IPCC 4th Assessment Report is that the aggregated global impacts of climate change will result in net costs into the future and these costs will grow over time (IPCC, 2007b). At a global scale, previous economic estimations of the costs of climate change impacts—as a result of rising sea levels, falls in agricultural productivity and energy demand changes for instance—are up to around 2% of global GDP per year (EEA, 2007). But, recent studies and reviews have indicated that these costs may be more significant (Ackerman and Stanton, 2006; Stern Review, 2006). The Stern review, the British government’s prominent report on the economics of climate change, takes a global perspective and provides aggregate total costs from an integrated assessment model. It estimates that if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced, the total cost under a business as usual scenario involves impacts and possible outcomes that will reduce welfare by an amount equivalent to a reduction in consumption per head of between 5 and 20%.

A related and very useful concept is the marginal (social) costs of climate change. Marginal costs of climate change are the additional damage costs of climate change from a current emission to the atmosphere of one unit of greenhouse gas. The IPCC (2007b) compiled the estimated marginal costs across some of the relevant studies in the literature and it can be seen how wide the range of results can be. The estimates ranges from -10 US$ to +350 US$ per tonne of carbon. Peer-reviewed estimates have a mean value of US$43 per tonne of carbon with a standard deviation of US$83 per tonne (IPCC, 2007b). It is also important to note that the marginal cost of climate

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change is likely to increase over time, in line with the expected rising costs of climate-change-induced damage (Watkiss, 2006).

While this information is very valuable in informing climate change policy, it is clear that there are many methodological issues involved in estimating the cost of inaction (both in terms of total costs or marginal costs).

Climate change is comprised of numerous types of climatic parameters, which in turn affect many sectors (market and non-market) in different ways. This leads to the issue of coverage (or completeness). It is clear that different estimates of the costs of climate change are based on different types of climate effects, and include different impacts across varying sectors. The coverage issue has been framed in a risk matrix, based on the different types of climate change and their uncertainty on the one hand and the uncertainty in valuation, covering market effects, non-market effects and socially contingent effects (a sub-category of non-market effects – defined as large scale dynamics related to human values and equity) on the other hand (Watkiss, 2006). Mapping the literature estimates onto this matrix shows a large difference in coverage between studies – and also reveals that most studies focus on the top left area reflecting market damages from predictable events.

All current estimates of the costs of inaction are therefore incomplete, as they do not cover all effects of climate change, across all impact categories, though we do not know by how much (because the probability and consequences of many of the boxes in the matrix are unknown). What is needed therefore is a recognition that the costs have a wide range and policies should be designed so that they consider this uncertainty. Also, it should be communicated clearly that there is not one single “true” value out there which science could deliver to policy makers.

Market Non-Market

Projectione.g. temperatureor SLR

Bounded e.g. precipitationand extremes

Major change e.g. majortipping points

Socially contingent

One or twostudies

Limit of coverage of many studies

None

Limits of coverage for most studies

None

None

NoneNone

Figure 6.11.1. The coverage of marginal economic costs of climate change against the risk matrix. (Source: Watkiss, 2006).

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7. Adaptation

7.1 Adaptation is required even if global greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized

Until a few years ago, climate change impacts were something of the future, and more relevant for other parts of the world than for Europe. Not anymore. They are being observed for natural and social systems worldwide (IPCC, 2007a). This report documents such impacts for vulnerable systems in Europe. The impacts are generally projected to exacerbate in the future. In its latest, fourth assessment report, IPCC considers the “reasons for concern”15 to be stronger than in its Third Assessment Report in 2001. Many risks are now identified with higher confidence and some risks are projected to be larger or to occur at lower increases in temperature. At the same time, the understanding about the relationship between impacts (the basis for the “reasons for concern”) and vulnerability (that includes the ability to adapt to impacts) has improved. Some of the projected impacts can be abrupt or irreversible (IPCC, 2007b).

To limit the impacts, the European Union has agreed on a long-term goal to avoid that the global mean temperature would exceed 2oC above pre-industrial levels. Even if this goal would be achieved by very stringent world-wide mitigation action, some impacts remain and vulnerability reduction and adaptation are imperative. Thus, Europe has to adapt to climate change itself and has a moral obligation to assist particularly the poor elsewhere (esp. in developing countries) –as they are most vulnerable- in adapting., e.g. in the context of the Nairobi Five-year programme of work on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change (UNFCCC, 2006), the Bali Action Plan (UNFCCC, 2008) and the National Plans on Adaptation Action (NAPAs). However, this chapter focuses on Europe itself.

Note that not always does climate change pose a threat. In some areas in the world, for small temperature increases, without negative precipitation changes and influenced by CO2 fertilization, agriculture can benefit. But also for other sectors (e.g., tourism, energy supply, water management, construction and spatial planning, shipping) it can also provide opportunities for innovations in areas or economic structural development, technology and governance in many world regions. Capturing such opportunities requires pro-active adaptation planning.

Many adaptation options are available, which are usually location and sector specific.. Adaptation is seldom undertaken for the sake of climate change alone. Mostly, adaptation is integrated into broader policy action, such as disaster preparedness, coastal zone management, rural development, health care services, spatial planning and water management.

Not always does climate change pose a threat. In some areas in the world agriculture can benefit, albeit only for small temperature increases without negative precipitation changes and influenced by CO2 fertilization. But also for other sectors (e.g., tourism,

15 Risks to unique and threatened ecosystems, risks of extreme weather events, distribution of impacts and vulnerability, aggregate impacts, and risks of large-scale singularities.

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energy supply, water management, construction and spatial planning, shipping) it can also provide opportunities for innovations in economic development, technology and governance. Capturing such opportunities requires pro-active adaptation planning.

It is important to note that there are limits to adaptation as well. Natural systems often have a lower adaptive capacity than human systems, especially when certain thresholds – which are poorly but increasingly understood - are exceeded. But also for human systems there will be limits. These are influenced by social, institutional and economic constraints. With increasing climate change, adaptation costs will increase and the options may decrease. Costs of adaptation can be significant, but are as yet largely unknown (EEA, 2008).

7.2 Also Europe is vulnerable and will have to adapt

Because of a large body of research in Europe, much of the information underlying the IPCC global assessment of impacts comes from Europe (see Figure 4.1). The current report further elaborates and structures this knowledge on European impacts, confirming that many European regions are vulnerable to climate change and that impacts have already been observed for many vulnerable systems. Again, most of the projected impacts are negative, certainly beyond a few decades. However, also in Europe adaptation offers opportunities to make Europe more resilient to climate change and as a side effect stimulating export of innovative adaptation technologies to other regions.

To address the necessity of adapting to climate change in Europe, the EU has adopted a Green Paper (EC, 2007) with four pillars: (a) early action by mainstreaming adaptation into sector policies, (b) integrating adaptation into external relations, including development cooperation, (c) strengthening research and applying the knowledge basis, and (d) develop a participatory process to implement the strategy. After a period of stakeholder consultations and an impact assessment of potential options, a White Paper on a European adaptation strategy with a more concrete and detailed set of actions is planned to be adopted in November 2008.

7.3 Different vulnerable systems at different geographic levels require different approaches

European action on adaptation could take different directions, such as a formal legislative approach, requiring member states to develop and implement

strategies in a particular way, either as stand-alone adaptation policy or integration in other policy areas;

a supporting role, helping the member states in their adaptation actions only were needed (e.g., transboundary issues, knowledge and tools development, structural funds), or

reporting requirements, only requiring member states to report about their activities to encourage networking and information sharing.

In many cases a link with risk and disaster management will be appropriate. The choice of the level of intervention and support will be different for different sectors,

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taking into account the subsidiarity principle. Options will be further developed in the context of a White Paper, expected in the fall of 2008.

In general, adaptation is a real crosscutting issue and integrating climate change adaptation into sectoral policies is one of the key approaches to climate change adaptation to be developed under the 1st pillar of the Green Paper. Integration of climate change into other policy areas is aiming at protecting citizens and nature, and making economic activities less vulnerable to climate change by appropriate adaptation in sectors such as energy supply, transport, spatial planning, water management, agriculture and nature protection. Figure 7.1 shows the differences in emphasis between different regions in Europe. Most adaptation policies in Europe currently focus on reduction of risk and vulnerability, with a smaller number of policies aiming at improvements of adaptation capacity, increasing the capacity to cope with extreme events, or to capture opportunities from climatic changes (Massey, 2007). Linkages between adaptation and mitigation have to be considered. Some adaptation options can be developed in synergy with mitigation, e.g. in the land and water management sectors. Other options can have negative impacts on mitigation, because they can lead to additional greenhouse gas emissions.

Member states are at different stages of developing and implementing national adaptation strategies, dependent on the magnitude and nature of observed impacts, the assessment of current and future vulnerability, and the capacity to adapt. Several countries are in the process of developing national adaptation strategies or have developed one, including the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Finland, France, Hungary, the Netherlands, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Spain, and the United Kingdom.

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

W. Europe S. Europe N. Europe C. Europe

Region

Disease management

Financial mgmt.

Development co-op

Food production & security

Biodiversity mgmt.

Energy/UPS

Extreme temps (heat waves &freezes)

Water management(quantity&quality)

Landscape management (incl.soil erosion, floods, fires)

Coastal zone management

Figure 7.1: Emphasis on different types of adaptation polices in different European regions (Massey, 2007).

7.4 From European and national plans to regional and local implementation

Such strategies provide the framework for adaptation actions many of which have to be implemented at the regional and local level (regions, provinces, municipalities, or even smaller scope). Various regionally-oriented initiatives are already underway in Europe under the INTERREG programme that link research and policy development, such as ASTRA (Developing Policies & Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region), AMICA (Adaptation and Mitigation – an Integrated Climate Policy Approach), ADAGIO (Adaptation of Agriculture in European Regions at Environmental Risk under Climate Change), BRANCH (Biodiversity Requires Adaption in Northwest Europe under a CHanging climate) and ClimChAlp (Climate Change, Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in the Alpine Space). National and European action can provide or strengthen the enabling circumstances for regional and local adaptation. National and European information sources such as this report can provide the knowledge basis for identifying vulnerable areas and setting the context for regional and local adaptation action. More particularly, the impact indicators presented in the earlier chapters of this report can be related to the economic sectors in the Green Paper that have to prioritize, develop and implement adaptation strategies. The links vary between very weak and very strong (see Table 7.1).

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Table 7.1: Linking the impacts indicators in this report to the Green Paper sector adaptation

EEA impactsGP adaptation

Atmos-phere and

climate

Cryo-sphere

Marine and coast

Terr. Eco-

systems/biodivers

ity

Agricul-ture and forestry

Water quantity

Water quality

Human health

Economic loss

Agriculture, rural development

+++ o + ++ +++ ++ + + +

Industry and services

+ o + o o + + + +++

Energy + o o o + + o o +

Transport + + o o o + o o +

Health ++ o o o o o + +++ +

Water +++ + + + ++ +++ +++ + +

Marine and fisheries

+ + +++ ++ o o o o +

Ecosystems and biodiversity

+++ ++ ++ +++ ++ ++ ++ o o

Other resources (forests, soils)

++ + o ++ +++ ++ + o +

+++: strong link, ++: moderate link, +: weak link, o: negligible link; link can be positive or negative

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8. Uncertainties, data availability, gaps and future needs

Numerous studies investigating climate change and its impacts on ecosystems and society have been published since the release of the last EEA climate change indicator report (2004). These have led to a significant improvement in our understanding of climate change and its impacts as recently outlined in the fourth IPCC Report (IPCC, 2007). The number of indicators presented in this report also reflects the increase in knowledge on climate change impacts in Europe and in capacity to analyse these changes. But there are still uncertainties and information gaps as outlined in this chapter.

8.1 Sources of uncertaintyNeed to address uncertainty

Decision making has to rely on knowledge about climate change, its impacts and the anthropogenic forcing. It requires awareness of the remaining uncertainties which may affect investment decisions into mitigation and adaptation measures. Ignoring uncertainty increases the risk of inappropriate action to tackle the challenge of climate change and its impacts on environment, economy and human well being. Taking climate change into account may have a risk of over–reaction, which would lead to low cost efficiency of measures, or an insufficient response, which would mean too low investments with the consequence of high costs by climate change impacts. Decision makers furthermore need to take into account the precautionary principle according to which absence of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason to postpone measures where there is a risk of serious or irreversible harm to public health or the environment.Main types of uncertainty

Three basic types of uncertainty could be distinguished

1. Uncertainty in future socio-economic developments

Most important sources of uncertainty are human behaviour, evolution of political systems, demographic, technological and socio-economic developments. Policies to control greenhouse gas emissions affect the rate and intensity of future climate warming. For projections of climate change and impacts, the unpredictable component of the anthropogenic forcing is handled by using ensembles of potential futures based on different storylines of socio-economic development leading to a set of emission scenarios, such as the ones presented in the last IPCC reports (IPCC 2001, 2007). These emission scenarios are used to analyse the influence of human activities on the climate system in an “if – then” mode: if emissions will increase or decrease to a certain degree then the anthropogenic impacts on the climate system will change in a certain way. The IPCC scenarios describe a range of possible futures.

Several decades of climate research and the series of IPCC reports allow for a first comparison of early projections with observations over the last 20 years. The results show that there is increasing evidence that emission of greenhouse gases and increase in temperatures tend to be underestimated in projections. Even

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‘business as usual’ or ‘worst case’ scenarios projected lower emissions and rises in temperatures in the last 20 years compared to the actual measurements in the same period (IPCC, 2007). Underestimation of economic growth, energy demand and carbon intensity of energy supply might be one of the reasons.

It is interesting to note that the projected range of temperature has only slightly changed for the end of the 21st century from 1.4-5.8°C in the third IPCC assessment report (IPCC, 2001) to 1.1-6.4°C warming with a best estimate of 1.8-4.0°C in the fourth assessment report (IPCC, 2007). This is the current best available framework for decision makers when they consider options for climate policy measures.

2. Incomplete knowledge in models and assessments

Lack in understanding of the physical, chemical and biological processes and attribution of climate change to anthropogenic and natural factors are other sources of uncertainty. Also the attribution of impacts to climate and non-climate factors is a source of uncertainty. There might be still completely unknown processes in the Earth system we are still not aware off. However the physical processes of the atmosphere and its interaction with land and sea surface are reasonably well understood. This is shown by the fact that climate models are able to reproduce the past and present climate rather well. However, there remain uncertainties in the understanding of the climate system, of which the last IPCC report (IPCC, 2007) gives a good overview. For example, one major source of uncertainty is the impacts of cloud cover on the energy balance of the atmosphere, which, for example, implies uncertainty in the climate sensitivity, a key variable in climate change modelling.

Another process-related uncertainty for climate impact analysis is related to the ‘double attribution’: the attribution of climate change to anthropogenic causes and the attribution of observed changes in the environment to climate change impacts. The former attribution is approached indirectly by running models with and without anthropogenic causes and comparing the results with observations. The latter type of attribution is especially occurring in systems which are intensively managed or affected by human activities. Generally, this type of attribution is approached by analyzing consistency of observed indicator changes with observed climate change, and taking into account understanding of the climate-dependency of the indicator, e.g. derived from controlled experiments or model analysis. Increase in crop yield for example may be caused by a combination of higher temperatures, CO2 fertilization, growth of new crop varieties and/or improved management. Responses in systems with high levels of complexity and self-organization like biological, social or economic systems are very difficult to evaluate. Climate impacts can either be increased by other, non-climatic factors, or be compensated by adaptation of the system, or be internally compensated until a critical level of resilience is exceeded. Sensitivity analysis with computer models can support a better understanding of these systems by analyzing the different combinations of drivers.

3. Insufficient data and information

There may be high confidence in the understanding of particular processes of climate change and impacts. But if there is insufficient data assessments only give qualitative information which is of limited value for mitigation and adaptation

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strategies. If data are too limited for appropriate modelling and assessments, confidence in findings are normally low. Data might be completely missing or insufficient in spatial or temporal resolution or coverage. Time series are often too short for detecting trends and understanding causal links to either anthropogenic climate change or natural variability. For instance, the question is still unresolved whether frequency and intensity of extreme events like hurricanes and floods are changing due to anthropogenic climate change or whether the observed changes are part of the natural variability. This is partly because time series of observed trends are still too short and partly because variability of these events is much higher than the trend in climate. Scarcity in terms of temporal and spatial coverage of data describing the so-called lower boundary conditions of the climate system, like sea surface temperature, ice and snow cover, and permafrost, still limit the reliability of climate modelling (GCOS, 2003).

Another source of underestimation when comparing projections done in the past with actual temperature measurements, as mentioned above (IPCC, 2007) might be the tendency to interpret lack in knowledge as evidence that the climate is not changing. Since current climate conditions are very likely significantly warmer than conditions of the last 1000 years, models validated on observed or estimated data in current climate may underestimate future trends under accelerating climate warming especially if validation of models require detailed measurements such as physiological models for crop and forest growth.

Adaptation planning requirements

The need for regional assessments for better understanding of climate change and impacts requires analysis at higher spatial resolutions including seasonal changes over the year (IPCC, 2007). To adequately support decisions on adaptation measures, more precise information at a regional and local level is required. Planning for winter tourism for example requires very detailed information on local climate, especially on changes in temperatures and snow fall during winter to analyze the cost-effectiveness of managing ski resorts and the environmental impacts of running these facilities. Taking climate change impacts into account for flood protection measures requires very detailed information on changes in precipitation frequency and intensity for appropriate planning of dams and dikes.

8.2 Uncertainties and data gaps for indicators The number of indicators and the quality of the underlying information in terms of pan-European coverage for describing climate change impacts have been significantly increased since the last EEA climate change indicator report 2004. New indicators have been developed especially for systems which are also influenced by non-climate factors like ecosystems, biodiversity, forestry and agriculture (Table 8.2.1). Others have been dropped either because they haven’t been considered to be important for the communication of climate change impacts (e.g. greenhouse gas concentration) or been replaced by a more Europe-wide view (e.g. plant species distribution in mountains).

The current state in terms of uncertainties and data needs are summarized for each category.

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Table 8.2.1: Major changes in indicators 2004 – 2008

Sector New indicator in 2008 Replaced or removed indicator from 2004 report

Atmosphere and climate Storms and storm surges in EuropeAir pollution by ozone

Greenhouse gas concentrations

Cryosphere Greenland ice sheetMountain permafrost

Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity

Distribution of animal species Bird survival

Animal phenologyImpacts on communities

Agriculture and forestry AgrophenologyIrrigation demand Forest growthForest fire dangerSoil organic carbon Terrestrial carbon uptake *Growing seasonCrop yield Crop yield losses in 2003

Water quantity, droughts, floods River floodsRiver flow drought

Water quality and Water temperaturefresh water ecology Lake and river ice coverage

Freshwater ecology

Human health Water and food borne diseases

* from section ‘Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity’

Atmosphere and climate

Atmospheric and climate systems are the subject of long-term routine measurements since many decades. Therefore data availability is relatively good. On global level major gaps in data coverage are mostly identified for Africa, the oceans and the polar regions (GCOS 2003). However, there is also still lack in data for regional and local assessments at appropriate spatial resolution and quality for Europe. More detailed and quantitative, tailor-made information is especially needed for regional climate impact assessments and the development of cost effective adaptation strategies for ecosystems, such as Natura2000 areas, economic sectors and human health in the regions across Europe. For adaptation particularly information on extreme events are most important, but changes in storms and storm surges in relation to climate change are still uncertain since time series of observed data are too short to understand the contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcing. To better analyse changes in the frequency and intensity of other extreme events like heat waves and heavy rain falls sufficient amounts of data are still lacking in parts of Europe and in terms of length of observed time series.

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Cryosphere

Ice and snow coverage are monitored using remote sensing techniques, since several decades, delivering qualitative information on changes over time. Much more important are changes in mass balances which are the key information for assessing water availability and changes in sea level rise. The evidence for these changes is rather robust for glaciers which are monitored intensively, but for large parts of the cryosphere and especially for the Greenland Ice Sheet uncertainty in changes in mass-balances is still very high. There is more and more evidence that melting rates for Greenland Ice Sheet and Arctic Sea Ice are accelerating very fast and there might be the risk that a tipping point for accelerated Arctic Sea Ice melting might be reached rather soon. Only recently monitoring and research activities in Greenland have been stepped up, and over time the understanding may improve. Melting of permafrost has been observed but data and knowledge for quantitative assessments is still rather poor due to too short time series.

Marine systems

Observed changes of physical conditions of the sea surface are linked to changes in the atmosphere. Both satellite and ground based gauge stations are in place to monitor changes in sea level. For Europe uncertainty in projected sea levels are relatively high because global trend is overlaid by other processes such as land rise in Northern Europe, land subsidence at parts of the North sea coast and changes in thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic which also affects regional sea level. Additional monitoring and research is needed to improve the understanding of changes in the thermohaline circulation (THC, now termed as Meridional Overturning Circulation, MOC) in terms of impacts on regional climate and sea level.

Monitoring of physical parameters (mostly temperature, salinity) has been significantly improved especially with the systems of ARGO floaters and remote sensing techniques. Implementing the European Marine Strategy will improve the sustainability of these monitoring programmes. Biological systems are observed occasionally mostly by research campaigns and ship of opportunity programmes (e.g. ‘SAHFOS Continuous Plankton Recorder’). These programmes give a good overview on changes in areas where ships are navigating. A more systematic evaluation of changes in marine ecosystems is needed in terms of coverage of European seas and comparability of applied methods.

Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity

Phenology and diversity of plants and animals show significant changes but observed trends are still rather fragmentary in terms of European coverage and number of observed species. A fundamental problem is the different sensitivity of each species to changes in temperature, precipitation, humidity and other climate variables. Using the observed distribution of species in relation to current climate conditions allows projections of the natural habitat of these species under future climate. However, it doesn’t take into account the individual resilience and adaptation capacity of the species, positive and negative impacts of management and risk of disconnection of predator - prey relations in the foodweb. Impacts on abundance, which is also very important for the genetic variety and consequently for the survival, is considered only to a limited extent. Monitoring of biodiversity is partly based on regular screening of

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plants and species in protected areas but most of the pan-European information is based on temporary research projects, voluntary networks and NGOs. There are more information on observed changes in phenology mostly based on voluntary observation networks, but there are only very general projections on phenological changes mostly based on interpretations of changes in temperatures. More efforts are needed to improve monitoring especially in areas where data sampling is still rather poor or data are existing but are not accessible. A more systematic observation of species and their abundance across Europe is needed to improve the still very fragmented knowledge about climate change impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity.

Agriculture and forestry

Agriculture and forestry sector are affected by climate change and non climatic impacts. Both sectors are clearly dominated by management, and it is therefore difficult to attribute specific trends from field observations uniquely to a changing climate.

Nevertheless, direct observations and model based reconstructions allow the identification of specific climate related impacts on plant growth. Additionally very extensive experiments e.g. FACE (free air CO2 enrichment experiments) are performed to investigate impacts of climate change on crop and tree species including interactions with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and impacts of management. Results are then extrapolated using models to simulate the physiological response of plants to changing conditions. There is still significant lack in knowledge and data on the individual responses of species to climate change and the subsequent changes in competition in forests also because response of species depends on age and time of exposure. More precise analyses and projections for agriculture and forestry would further require more detailed information on management for each site and forest stand. Projections on fire risks are rather robust but projections of impacts of other extreme events like storms are very uncertain. A big gap in information exists on the possible changes in pressures by pests and diseases on crops and forests under a changing climate.

Pan-European assessments will certainly be more precise and accurate when specific local conditions and physiological constrains of crops, trees and pests are fully taken into account. But lack in knowledge on physiological responses of individual plant species to climate change and still inaccurate projections of future climate on regional level make projections rather uncertain especially in areas where precipitation is the limiting factor for agriculture and forestry. Projections for areas where temperatures are the most limiting factor are expected to deliver more robust results.

Water quantity

In European rivers and lakes there are already many observations of marked changes in water temperatures, ice coverage, and stratification of lakes, which can be attributed mainly to air temperature increase. Some long-term observations clearly describe the changes and they are supported by a growing set of shorter term observations (30-50 years) that provide additional evidence of changes in the temperature regime of rivers and lakes.

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Water quantity assessments and especially floods are linked to quantification of trends in precipitation which is still uncertain especially for summer rainfall. Small differences in projected changes of precipitation lead to very large differences in water quantity especially in areas with low annual precipitation. In some areas of Europe river discharge is also linked to changes in mass balances of snow and ice. Additionally water extraction and water management across catchments and changes in land-use and management make it very difficult to attribute changes in average water discharge as well as in floods and droughts to climate change forcing.

Monitoring networks for river discharge and groundwater levels are relatively dense and delivering robust numbers on average water flows. But due to non-climatic factors uncertainties in climate change induced impacts are rather high. For projections uncertainties in climate models are further enhancing uncertainties in future changes of water quantities. Especially changes in floods and droughts require much more detailed information on regional changes in precipitation and land-management. Reliable information on quantities is the key information for appropriate water management and flood protection. A pan-European view on river discharges and changes is still missing but will be implemented in the Water Information System for Europe (WISE) in near future.

Water quality

European freshwaters are already affected by many human pressures related to land-use, pollution with nutrients and hazardous substances, and acid deposition. Because of difficulties in disentangling the effects of climatic factors from other pressures, there is limited empirical evidence to demonstrate unequivocally the impact of climate change on water quality and freshwater ecology. On the other hand, there are many indications that freshwaters that are already under stress from human activities are highly susceptible to climate change impacts.

Changes in oxygen content and stratification of lakes which can be attributed to climate change are derived from national and local research and monitoring activities. It is obvious that especially higher temperatures and subsequent lower oxygen content will increase pressure on freshwater ecosystems especially if there is already high nutrient and pollutant load but quantification of these processes is still highly uncertain. European water quality is regularly monitored and reported as part of the Water Framework Directive and data is available via WISE.

Human health

Climate change impacts on human health include direct impacts mainly due to heat waves storms and floods and indirect impacts by vector, water, and food borne diseases but also lowers risk of deaths from low temperatures. However quantification of these impacts is uncertain since monitoring systems in the health sector are not yet taking climate change sufficiently into account. Regarding projections an important source of uncertainty is the extent to which adaptation actions, such as preventive measures and appropriate changes in the health systems, will be implemented.

Economy

Economic climate change effects include direct impacts by extreme events like storms floods heat waves, and indirect impacts via changes in ecosystem services for

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agriculture, forestry, fisheries or tourism. Changes in temperature are also affecting energy demand leading to less heating in winter and more cooling in summer. Other impacts e.g. on human health are also linked to the economic sector. Climate change related economic effects are different across Europe and depend to a large extent on the capability of societies to adapt to these changes.

For more detailed risk assessments more detailed data and studies are needed, on the contribution of increases in damage costs caused by climate change and the contribution caused by increases in wealth and infrastructure. Also more studies on valuation of climatic impacts on economic sectors are needed. Furthermore data at local level on costs of adaptation actions is only available to a limited extent and much more data on good practices and their costs are needed.

8.3 Improvement of monitoring and reporting There are many efforts to improve climate change related data availability in Europe which are also linked to global activities. For improving the understanding of the climate system, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) network identified a data set as described in Table 8.3.1 requiring long term time series on atmospheric, marine and terrestrial processes in appropriate temporal and spatial resolution (GCOS, 2003). Most of these are also part of EEA’s indicators on climate change impacts, such as near surface atmospheric conditions, sea surface temperature, ice and snow cover, permafrost etc.

Table 8.3.1: Essential climate variables as required by UNFCCC for detecting and modelling of climate change Source: GCOS, 2003.

Domain Essential climate variablesAtmospheric(over land, seaand ice)

Surface: Air temperature, precipitation, air pressure, surface radiation budget, wind speed and direction, water vapour.

Upper-air: Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance), upper-air temperature (including MSU – microwave sounding unit – radiances), wind speed and direction, water vapour, cloud properties.

Composition: Carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, other long-lived greenhouse gases, aerosol properties.

Oceanic Surface: Sea-surface temperature, sea-surface salinity, sea level, sea state, sea ice, current, ocean colour (for biological activity), carbon dioxide partial pressure.

Sub-surface: Temperature, salinity, current, nutrients, carbon, ocean tracers, phytoplankton.

Terrestrial River discharge, water use, ground water, lake levels, snow cover, glaciers and ice caps, permafrost and seasonally frozen ground, albedo, land cover (including vegetation type), fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), leaf area index (LAI), biomass, fire disturbance.

The EU ‘Global Monitoring for Environment and Security’ (GMES) Programme (EC, 2004) aims to strengthen the monitoring capacity within Europe and the world by making data available as ‘services’ from 2008 onwards. The combination of satellite and ground based information to services and the envisaged long-term funding of the services will significantly improve availability of data on changes in the environment. Many of the services developed will also improve availability of essential climate variables. E.g. information in ‘Service Marine’ will include sea surface temperatures

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and salinity, ‘Service Land Monitoring’ will provide information on land cover changes and ‘Service Atmosphere’ will monitor greenhouse gas concentrations,

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aerosols and radiation. The services will be extended stepwise over the coming years and will be fully established in 2013. GMES is also contributing to the global activities currently coordinated and streamlined in the Global Observation System of the Systems (GEOSS) programme (GEOSS, 2005). Another important programme aiming on monitoring is the Date User Element (DUE) of the European Space Agency (ESA) which include global and regional data on land-cover (GlobCover), ocean colour (GlobColour), carbon (GlobCarbon) and cryosphere (GlobIce, GlobSnow, Permafrost) and other climate relevant data.

European research projects improve our understanding of processes and impacts but normally are lacking continuity in funding. Consequently, measurements performed in these projects are only covering short time periods and/or only small areas which often limit the value of information for climate change assessments. Some projects are funded for the implementation of GMES monitoring services such as MERSEA and MyOcean for marine, Geoland-1 and Geoland-2 for land and GEMS and MACC for atmosphere services.

Climate related projects (e.g., PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES) are improving the availability of regional projections of climate change. Other ongoing or already completed projects are dealing with specific sectors like ACCELERATES for agriculture and ALARM for biodiversity or EUROLIMPACS and CLIME for freshwater ecosystems. Some are focussed on regions like CIRCE for the Mediterranean area or investigating climate change impacts and the social and economic impacts like ATEAM on vulnerability of ecosystem services in Europe. ADAM is focused on adaptation and mitigation strategies for supporting European climate policy and PESETA is dealing with projections of economic impacts of climate change in different sectors and regions like coastal systems, energy demand, human health, agriculture, tourism, and floods. There are also numerous activities on national and regional level including both public and non-governmental research and monitoring programmes (e.g. Transboundary projects of the Interreg Programme).

The monitoring activities and results from research will further help to understand, and maybe reduce, the uncertainties related to lack in data and knowledge about climate change and impacts and will consequently improve the basis for decision making. In summary, from the perspective of climate change impacts and adaptation, future efforts should mostly aim at

better data and better models for projections for the next decades (in addition to models for the period up to 2100) in terms of spatial density, quality and length of time series (including historical data) for detecting environmental changes due to climate change;

improved timely and free public access to data and tools by metadata description, standardization, harmonization, improved architecture and infrastructure for data management including distributed data centres and portals for standardized access;

research to advance the understanding about the linkages between the behaviour of vulnerable systems, climatic changes, and non-climatic drivers.

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Marine systems

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Terrestrial ecosystems, biodiversity

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Water quality and fresh water ecology

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Human health

Bouchama A (2007). What should health professionals know? EuroHEAT final meeting, Bonn, Germany, 22-23 March 2007.Confalonieri U, Menne B, Akhtar R et al. (2007). Human Health. In: Parry ML et al., eds. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Working Group II contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.: Cambridge University Press.D'Souza R, Becker N, Hall G et al. (2004). Does ambient temperature affect foodborne disease? Epidemiology, 15 86-92.Dessai S (2003). Heat stress and mortality in Lisbon Part II. An assessment of the potential impacts of climate change. Int J Biometeorol, 48 (1):37-44.Donaldson G, Kovats RS, Keatinge WR et al. (2001). Heat-and-cold-related mortality and morbidity and climate change. In: Health effects of climate change in the UK. London: Department of Health; p. 70-80.Ebi KL (2006). Floods and Human Health. In: Menne B, Ebi KL, eds. Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies for Human Health. Darmstadt: WHO Regional Office for Europe, Steinkopff Verlag; p. 99-121.EC Communication (January 2007)Preliminary results of PESETA have been published in the Staff Working Paper accompanying the EC Communication on "Limiting Global Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius. The way ahead for 2020 and beyond" (see DG Environment related Web site http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/future_action.htm).Fleury M, Charron DF, Holt JD et al. (2006). A time series analysis of the relationship of ambient temperature and common bacterial enteric infections in two Canadian provinces. International Journal of Biometeorology, 50 (6):385-391.Goulson D, Derwent LC, Hanley M et al. (2005). Predicting calyptrate fly populations from the weather, and the likely consequences of climate change. Journal of Applied Ecology And Society, 42 795-804.Hall GV, D'Souza RM, Kirk MD (2002). Foodborne disease in the new millennium: out of the frying pan and into the fire. Medical Journal of Australia, 177 (2/16 Dec):614-618.Hunter PR (2003). Climate change and waterborne and vectorborne disease. J Appl.Microbiol., 94 37-46.Kistemann T, Classen T, Koch C et al. (2002). Microbial Load of Drinking Water Reservoir Tributaries during Extreme Rainfall and Runoff. 68 (5):2188-2197.Koppe C, Jendritzky G, Pfaff G (2003). Die Auswirkungen der Hitzewelle 2003 auf die Gesundheit. In: DWD, editor. Klimastatusbericht 2003; p. 152-162Korenberg E (2004). Environmental causes for possible relationship between climate change and changes of natural foci of diseases and their epidemiologic consequences. Climate change and public health in Russia in the XXI Century. Proceeding of the international workshop, Moscow.

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Kovats RS, Edwards S, Hajat S et al. (2004). The effect of temperature on food poisoning: time series analysis in 10 European countries. Epidemiology and Infection, 132 (3):443.Kovats RS, Edwards SJ, Charron D et al. (2005). Climate variability and campylobacter infection: an international study. Int J Biometeorol, 49 (4):207-214.Kriz B, Benes C, Castkova J et al. (1998). Monitorování Epidemiologické‚ Situace V Zaplavených Oblastech v České Republice v Roce 1997. [Monitoring the Epidemiological situation in flooded areas of the Czech Republic in 1997.] In: Konference DDD '98; Kongresove‚ Centrum L ze•sk  Kolona da Podebrady, 11. -13. Kvetna 1998 [Proceedings of the Conference DDD'98, 11-12th May, 1998, Prodebrady, Czech Republic.]. Prodebrady, Czech Republic.Lake IR, Bentham G, Kovats RS et al. (2005). Effects of weather and river flow on cryptosporidiosis. J Water Health, 3 (4):469-474.Lehane L, Lewis RJ (2000). Ciguatera: recent advances but the risk remains. International Journal of Food Microbiology, 61 (2-3):91-125.Louis VR, Gillespie IA, O'Brien SJ et al. (2005). Temperature-driven Campylobacter seasonality in England and Wales. Appl Environ Microbiol, 71 (1):85-92.Miettinen I, Zacheus O, von Bonsdorff C (2001). Waterborneepidemics in Finland in 1998-1999. Water Sci Technol, 43 67-71.Randolph SE, Rogers DJ (2000). Fragile transmission cycles of tick-borne encephalitis virus may be distrupted by predicted climate change. Philosl Trans Roy Soc London - Series B, 267 1741-1744.Reacher M, McKenzie K, Lane C et al. (2004). Health impacts of flooding in Lewes: a comparison of reported gastrointestinal and other illness and mental health in flooded and non-flooded households. Commun Dis Public Health, 7 (1):39-46.Robine JM, Cheung SL, Le Roy S et al. (2007). Report on excess mortality in Europe during summer 2003. EU Community Action Programme for Public Health, Grant Agreement 2005114. 2003 Heat wave project.Available under http://ec.europa.eu/health/ph_projects/2005/action1/docs/action1_2005_a2_15_en.pdfSemenza J, Nichols G (2007). Cryptosporidiosis surveillance and water-borne outbreaks in Europe. Euro surveill, 12 (5):Available online: http://www.eurosurveillance.org/em/v12n05/1205-1227.asp.Tam C, Rodrigues L, O'Brien S et al. (2006). Temperature dependence of reported Campylobacter infection in England, 1989-1999. Epidemiol Infect, 134 (1):119-125.

6. Economic consequences of Climate change

Abegg, B., Agrawala S., Crick F., and de Montfalcon, A. (2007). Climate change impacts and adaptation in winter tourism. In: Authors (initials first) Climate change in the European Alps: adapting winter tourism and natural hazards management. Paris: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. 25-60.ABI (2005). Financial risk of climate change. Association of British Insurers, London, UK.Ackerman, F. and Stanton, E. (2006). ‘Climate Change – the Costs of Inaction, Report to Friends of the Earth England, Wales and Northern Ireland, October , 2006.Amelung, B., Nicholls, S., & Viner, D. (2007). Implications of Global Climate Change for Tourism Flows and Seasonality. Journal of Travel Research, 45(3), 285-296.Amelung B and Viner D. 2006 Mediterrannean Tourism: Exploring the future with the Tourism Comfort Index Journal of Sustainable Tourism Vol. 14. Nos. 4 pp 349-366Barredo, J.I., 2007, Major flood disasters in Europe: 1950-2005. Natural Hazards, 42, 125-148.

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Shablakova, M. V., W. P. A. van Deursen, and T. A. Buishand 2003. Assessing future discharge of the river Rhine using regional climate model integrations and a hydrological model. Climate Research 23 233-246.Sælthun, N. R., P. Aittoniemi, S. Bergström, K. Einarsson, T. Jóhannesson, G. Lindström, P. E. Ohlsson, T. Thomsen, B. Vehviläinen, and K. O. Aamodt 1998. Climate Change Impacts on Runoff and Hydropower in the Nordic Countries. Final report from the project "Climate Change and Energy Production".TemaNord 1998:552. 170 pp. Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen. http://www.norden.org/pub/sk/showpub.asp?pubnr=1998:552UCTE 1999. Langfristige Entwicklung von Abflußreihen im UCPTE-Raum.Bericht der UG Wasserwirtschaft 9 pp. Union for the Coordination of Transmission of Electricity, Wien. Veiga da Cunha, L., R. Proença de Oliveira, L. Ribiero, and J. Nascimento 2004. Impactos das Alterações Climáticas nos Recursos Hídricos Portugueses. Principais Conclusões das Equipas Sectoriais da Fase II, Sessão de apresentação pública dos resultados do SIAM II. Series Impactos das Alterações Climáticas nos Recursos Hídricos Portugueses. SIAM. http://www.siam.fc.ul.pt/siamII_pdf/RecursosHidricos.pdfVeijalainen, N., and B. Vehviläinen 2006. Climate change effects on dam safety in Finland. European Conference on Impacts of Climate Change on Renewable Energy Sources. Series Climate change effects on dam safety in Finland. http://verkefni.vatn.is/ce/files/Hydrological_models/noora_veijalainen.pdfZierl, B. and H. Bugman, 2005. Global change impacts on hydrological processes in Alpine catchments. Wat.Resourc.Res. 41(2)

Public water supplyDyble J., Paerl H.W. and Neilan B.A. 2002. Genetic characterization of Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii (Cyanobacteria) isolates from diverse geographic origins based on nifH andcpcBA-IGS nucleotide sequence analysis. Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 68: 2567–2571.Mooij WM, Hu¨lsmann S, Domis LND, Nolet BA, Bodelier PLE, Boers PCM, Pires LMD, Gons HJ, Ibelings BW, Noordhuis R, Portielje R, Wolfstein K, Lammens EHRR (2005) The impact of climate change on lakes in The Netherlands: a review. Aquat Ecol 39(4):381–400Jöhnk, K.D., Huisman, J., Sharples, J., Sommeijer, B., Visser, P.M. & Stroom, J.M. Summer heatwaves promote blooms of harmful cyanobacteria. Global Change Biology (in press)Schindler, D.W. 2001. The cumulative effects of climate warming and other human stresses on Canadian freshwaters in the new millennium. Can J. Fish. Aquat. Sci., 58: 18-29.Wilhelm, S., and Adrian, R. 2007. Impact of summer warming on the thermal characteristics of a polymictic lake and consequences for oxygen, nutrients and phytoplankton. Freshwater Biology. Doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2427.2007.01887.x

LossesABI, 2005, Financial risk of climate change. Association of British Insurers, London, UK, p. 39.Barredo, J.I., 2007, Major flood disasters in Europe: 1950-2005. Natural Hazards, 42, 125-148.Feyen, L., Dankers, R., Barredo, J.I., de Roo, A. and Lavalle, C., 2007, Climate change and floods in Europe. In Climate Change Impacts on the Water Cycle, Resources and Quality - Research-Policy Interface, M. Moren-Abat, P. Quevauviller, L. Feyen, A.-S. Heiskanen, P. Noges, A.L. Solheim and E. Lipiatou (Eds.). Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 37-43.Hall, J.W., Sayers, P.B. and Dawson, R.J., 2005, National-scale Assessment of Current and Future Flood Risk in England and Wales. Natural Hazards, 36, 147-164.

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Höppe, P. and Pielke Jr, R.A., 2006, Workshop Summary Report. In Workshop on Climate Change and Disaster Losses: Understanding and Attributing Trends and Projections, P. Höppe and R.A. Pielke, Jr (Eds.). Hohenkammer, Germany, 4-12.Huntington, T.G., 2006, Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Review and synthesis. Journal of Hydrology, 319, 83-95.IPCC, 2007, Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, IPCC WGII report (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press).Kundzewicz, Z.W., Graczyk, D., Maurer, T., Przymusińska, I., Radziejewski, M., Svensson, C. and Szwed, M., 2004, Detection of change in world-wide hydrological time series of maximum annual flow. Report 32, GRDC Report Series, Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC), Koblenz, Germany, p. 36.Kundzewicz, Z.W., 2005, Intense precipitation and high river flows in Europe – Observations and projections. Acta Geophysica Polonica, 53, 385-400.Kundzewicz, Z.W., Ulbrich, U., Brücher, T., Graczyk, D., Krüger, A., Leckebusch, G.C., Menzel, L., Pińskwar, I., Radziejewski, M. and Szwed, M., 2005, Summer Floods in Central Europe – Climate Change Track? Natural Hazards, 36, 165-189.Kundzewicz, Z.W., Radziejewski, M. and Pinskwar, I., 2006, Precipitation extremes in the changing climate of Europe. Climate Research, 31, 51-58.Lehner, B., Döll, P., Alcamo, J., Henrichs, T. and Kaspar, F., 2006, Estimating the Impact of Global Change on Flood and Drought Risks in Europe: A Continental, Integrated Analysis. Climatic Change, 75, 273-299.Mills, E., 2005, Insurance in a Climate of Change. Science, 309, 1040-1044.Milly, P.C.D., Wetherald, R.T., Dunne, K.A. and Delworth, T.L., 2002, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate. Nature, 415, 514-517.Mudelsee, M., Borngen, M., Tetzlaff, G. and Grunewald, U., 2003, No upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe. Nature, 425, 166-169.Muir Wood, R., Miller, S. and Boissonnade, A., 2006, The search for trends in a global catalogue of normalized weather-related catastrophe losses. In Workshop on Climate Change and Disaster Losses - Understanding and Attributing Trends and Projections, P. Höppe and R.A. Pielke, Jr (Eds.). Hohenkammer, Germany, 188-194.Pielke Jr, R.A. and Downton, M.W., 2000, Precipitation and Damaging Floods: Trends in the United States, 1932–97. Journal of Climate, 13, 3625–3637.Pielke Jr, R.A., 2007, Future economic damage from tropical cyclones: sensitivities to societal and climate changes. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, 365, 1-13.WL Delft Hydraulics, 2007, Overstromingsrisico’s in Nederland in een veranderend klimaat (Flood risks in the Netherlands under climate change). report Q4290.00, WL Delft Hydraulics Delft, Netherlands, p.

7. Adaptation

EC, 2007. Adapting to climate change in Europe – options for EU action. SEC(2007) 849, European Commission, BrusselsEEA, 2005. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe Technical report No 7/2005EEA, 2007. Climate change and water adaptation issues. Technical report No 2/2007EEA, 2008. Climate change: the cost of inaction and the cost of adaptation. EEA Technical report No 13/2007IPCC, 2007a. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge University PressIPCC, 2007b. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Cambridge University Press

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Massey, E., 2007. Presentation during EIONET workshop on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation; European Environment Agency, CopenhagenUNFCCC, 2006. Five-year programme of work on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, in: Report of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice on its twenty-fifth session held at Nairobi from 6 to 14 November 2006UNFCCC, 2007. Decision -/CP.13, Bali Action Plan

8. Uncertainties, data availability, gaps and future needs

EC (2004): Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council: Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES): Establishing a GMES capacity by 2008 - (Action Plan (2004-2008)) COM(2004)65 final http://www.gmes.info/library/files/EC (2005): European Research on Climate Change Catalogue of FP6 Projects Volume 1, Environment Directorate, http://ec.europa.eu/research/environment/pdf/european_research_climate_change_en.pdfEC (2006): Global Change and Ecosystems Catalogue of projects funded during the Sixth Framework Programme, Environment Directorate, http://ec.europa.eu/research/environment/pdf/global_change_ecosystem.pdfEC (2006): European Research on Climate Change Catalogue of FP5 and FP6 Projects on Carbon Cycle and Green House Gases, Environment Directorate, http://ec.europa.eu/research/environment/pdf/catalogue_fp5fp6_carbon.pdfEC (2006): International Symposium Climate Change Research Challenges, Environment Directorate, http://ec.europa.eu/research/environment/pdf/climate_research_chall.pdfEC (2007): European research on Polar Environment and Climate Results and information from FP5 and FP6 projects, Environment Directorate, http://ec.europa.eu/research/environment/pdf/polar_catalogue_final.pdfEC (2007): Polar Environment and Climate The challenges, International Symposium, European research in the context of the International Polar Year, Environment Directorate, http://ec.europa.eu/research/environment/pdf/polar_env_and_climate_proceedings.pdfGCOS (2003): The second report on the adequacy of global observing systems for climate in support of the UNFCCC, report no. GCOS-82.GEOSS (2005): The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) 10-Year Implementation Plan http://www.earthobservations.org/docs/IPCC (2001): Climate change 2001: The scientific basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.IPCC (2007): Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Summary for Policymakers; http://www.ipcc.ch/

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