FoundationsforInnovation:StrategicR&DOpportunitiesfor21stCenturyCyber-PhysicalSystems-ConnectingComputerandInformationSystemsWiththe

PhysicalWorld,Robots,AutonomousVehicles

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U.S.Government,NationalInstituteofStandardsandTechnology

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ProgressiveManagement

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CONTENTS

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FoundationsforInnovation:StrategicR&DOpportunitiesfor21stCenturyCyber-PhysicalSystems-ConnectingComputerandInformationSystemsWiththe

PhysicalWorld

2015WorldwideThreatAssessment

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FoundationsforInnovation:StrategicR&DOpportunitiesfor21stCenturyCyber-PhysicalSystems-ConnectingComputerandInformationSystemsWiththe

PhysicalWorld

January2013

ReportoftheSteeringCommitteeforFoundationsinInnovationforCyber-PhysicalSystems

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STEERINGCOMMITTEEFORFOUNDATIONSFORINNOVATIONINCYBER-PHYSICALSYSTEMS

Thisreportwaspreparedthroughthecollaborativeeffortsoftheindividualsnotedbelow.ItreflectstheirexpertcontributionsaswellasthemanyinsightsgeneratedattheFoundationsforInnovationinCyber-PhysicalSystemsWorkshopheldMarch13-14,2012inRosemont,Illinois.

CommitteeCo-chairs

JanosSztipanovits,VanderbiltUniversity

SusanYing,Boeing

SteeringCommitteeMembers

IsaacCohen,UnitedTechnologiesCorporations

DavidCorman,Boeing

JimDavis,UCLAandSmartManufacturingLeadershipCoalition

HimanshuKhurana,HoneywellAutomationandControlSolutions

PieterJ.Mosterman,MathWorks

VenkateshPrasad,Ford

LonnyStormo,Medtronic,Inc.

ThisreportwaspreparedasanaccountofworkcosponsoredbytheNationalInstituteofStandardsandTechnology(NIST).TheviewsandopinionsexpressedhereindonotnecessarilystateorreflectthoseofNIST.Certaincommercialentities,equipment,ormaterialsmaybeidentifiedinthisdocumentinordertoillustrateapointorconcept.SuchidentificationisnotintendedtoimplyrecommendationorendorsementbyNIST,norisitintendedtoimplythattheentities,materials,orequipmentarenecessarilythebestavailableforthepurpose.

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CONTRIBUTORS

YiannisAloimonos,UniversityofMaryland,CollegePark

CarlAndersen,FederalHighwayAdministration

JohnBanting,CooperPowerSystems

JayBayne,MilwaukeeInstitute

AaronBecker,UniversityofIllinois,Urbana-Champaign

PatrickBeeson,Traclabs,Inc.

AaronBobick,GeorgiaInstituteofTechnology

JustinBradley,UniversityofMichigan

BrentBrunell,GeneralElectric

JasonBurt,BonnevillePowerAdministration

DavidChilin,UniversityofCalifornia,LosAngeles

GeorgeChiu,NationalScienceFoundation

IsaacCohen,UnitedTechnologiesCorporation

MikeCoop,ThinkSmartGrid

DavidCorman,Boeing

StephenCraven,UniversityofTennessee,Chattanooga

JoeD’Ambrosio,GeneralMotors

JimDavis,UCLAandSmartManufacturingLeadershipCoalition

KentDonohue,ULLLC

BruceDouglass,IBM

SamehElsharkawy,NiLogix,Inc.

YaserP.Fallah,WestVirginiaUniversity

AydinFarajidavar,GeorgiaInstituteofTechnology

KathleenFisher,DefenseAdvancedResearchProjectsAgency

TomFuhrman,GeneralMotors

ChristopherGeyer,iRobotCorporation

MaysamGhovanloo,GeorgiaInstituteofTechnology

ChristopherGill,WashingtonUniversityinSt.Louis

HelenGill,NationalScienceFoundation

JulianGoldman,MassachusettsGeneralHospital/HarvardMedicalSchool

BillGoodwine,UniversityofNotreDame

ChetanGupta,HPLabs

DonnyHelm,OncorElectricDelivery

NairaHovakimyan,UniversityofIllinois,Urbana-Champaign

DavidJohnson,BostonScientific

DavidKnowles,UniversityofNorthCarolina,

ChapelHill

HeathLeBlanc,VanderbiltUniversity

EdwardLee,UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley

HongweiLiao,UniversityofMichigan

TaylorLochrane,FederalHighwayAdministration

AminMaghareh,PurdueUniversity

MaryAnnMaher,SoftMEMS

KeithMarzullo,NationalScienceFoundation

EamonnMcCormick,AlvarezandMarsal

PieterJ.Mosterman,MathWorks

BrianMurray,UnitedTechnologiesResearchCenter

NecmiyeOzay,CaliforniaInstituteofTechnology

UmitOzguner,OhioStateUniversity

TaskinPadir,WorcesterPolytechnicInstitute

SaiPrathyushaPeddi,TheOhioStateUniversity

LinhThiXuanPhan,UniversityofPennsylvania

LeePike,Galois,Inc.

RadhaPoovendran,UniversityofWashington

LeonardRadtke,Medtronic

WenjingRao,UniversityofIllinoisatChicago

LuizRustCarmo,InmetroBrazil

BillSanders,UniversityofIllinois

ChaitanyaSankavaram,UniversityofConnecticut

ShankarSastry,UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley

A.PrasadSistla,UniversityofIllinoisatChicago

JonathanSprinkle,UniversityofArizona

GauravSrivastava,UniversityatBuffalo

AnthonyStar,IllinoisCommerceCommission

ZhuoxiongSun,PurdueUniversity

JamesSwanson,UniversityofCincinnati

JanosSztipanovits,VanderbiltUniversity

BurtTheurer,GeneralElectricGlobalResearch

DavidVasko,RockwellAutomation

CeemanVellaithurai,WashingtonStateUniversity

KrishnaVenkatasubramanian,UniversityofPennsylvania

PhilipWilsey,UniversityofCincinnati

AlexanderWyglinski,WorcesterPolytechnicInstitute

MumuXu,CaliforniaInstituteofTechnology

ShahanYang,UniversityofMaryland

SusanYing,Boeing

JustynaZander,HarvardUniversity,SimulatedWay

HongweiZhang,WayneStateUniversity

FengZhao,MicrosoftResearch-Asia

LeiZhao,PurdueUniversity

YiZhao,Futurewei

HaoZheng,UniversityofSouthFlorida

CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION

ACalltoAction

ReapingtheBenefitsofCyber-physicalSystems

BROADCHALLENGESFORCYBER-PHYSICALSYSTEMS

ScientificandTechnicalChallenges

Institutional,Societal,andOtherChallenges

STRATEGICR&DOPPORTUNITIES

SCIENCEANDENGINEERINGFOUNDATIONS

Opportunity

Robust,effectivedesignandconstructionofsystemsandinfrastructure

SYSTEMPERFORMANCE,QUALITY,ANDACCEPTANCE

Opportunity

Improvedperformanceandqualityassuranceofcomputationalandphysicalsystems

SYSTEMSOFENGINEERING

Opportunity

Effectiveandreliablesystemintegrationandinteroperability

WORKFORCEFORCONTINUINGINNOVATION

Opportunity

Dynamic,multi-disciplinaryeducationandtraining

CONCLUSION

REFERENCES

Thisreportisthethirdinaseriesofreportsdevelopedwithinputfromagroupofworld-renownedexpertsincyber-physicalsystems(CPS)andrelatedtechnologies.ThefirstintheseriesistheFoundationsforInnovationinCyber-PhysicalSystemsWorkshopReport,whichsummarizestheresultsofaworkshopheldinMarch2012togainbroad

viewsonthetechnologyandmeasurementchallengeslimitingCPS.SecondintheseriesisStrategicVisionandBusinessDriversfor21stCenturyCyber-PhysicalSystems,areportsummarizingtheideasgeneratedbyaJune2012ExecutiveRoundtable.ThiseventwasattendedbybusinessandtechnicalleadersinthefieldrepresentingaspectrumofapplicationsforCPS,frommedicinetoenergytomanufacturing.

Buildingonpreviousreports,thisdocumentprovidesahigh-levelperspectiveofthekeychallengesandstrategicresearchanddevelopmentopportunitiesforadvancingCPS.ThereportwillbeusedbybothpublicandprivatestakeholderstoinformdecisionsaboutthetechnologyR&Dthatshouldbepursued,aswellasthenewmeasurementmethodsandstandardsthatmustbedevelopedtorealizethetransformativepotentialofCPS.

INTRODUCTION

ThewidereachoftheInternetalongwithrapidadvancesinminiaturization,speed,power,andmobilityhaveledtothepervasiveuseofnetworkingandinformationtechnologies(IT)acrossalleconomicsectors.Increasingly,thesetechnologiesarecombinedwithelementsofthephysicalworld(e.g.,machines,devices,structures)tocreatesmartorintelligentsystemsthatofferincreasedeffectiveness,productivity,safety,andspeedandenablefunctionsnotpreviouslypossible.

Integratednetworking,informationprocessing,sensingandactuationcapabilitiesallowphysicaldevicestooperateinchangingenvironments.Thismakessmartsystemspossiblebutalsocreatestheneedforanew‘systemsscience’thatcanleadtounprecedentedcapabilities.Tightlycoupledcyberandphysicalsystemsthatexhibitthislevelofintegratedintelligencearesometimesreferredtoascyber-physicalsystems(CPS).AllCPShavecomputationalprocessesthatinteractwithphysicalcomponents.Thesecanberelativelysimple(e.g.,aheater,cuttingmachine)orcomprisemultiplecomponentsincomplexassemblies(e.g.,vehicles,aircraftsystems,oilrefineries).Thecomputationalandphysicalprocessesofsuchsystemsaretightlyinterconnectedandcoordinatedtoworktogethereffectively,oftenwithhumansintheloop.

Robots,intelligentbuildings,implantablemedicaldevices,carsthatdrivethemselvesorplanesthatautomaticallyflyinacontrolledairspace—theseareallexamplesofCPS.Today,CPScanbefoundinsuchdiverseindustriesasaerospace,automotive,energy,healthcare,manufacturing,infrastructure,consumerelectronics,andcommunications.Everydaylifeisbecomingincreasinglydependentonthesesystems—insomecaseswithdramaticimprovements.

Thereisagrowingtrendtowardcomputationalintelligence,automation,andcontrolforcomplicatedbutwell-definedtasksorprocesses,especiallywhendemandsorconstraintsarenotamenabletohumanintervention.Forexample,automaticcollisionsystemscoulddetectmovingobjectsandrespondfasterthanahumanoperator.UnmannedCPScouldbeusedtoreducetherisktohumanlifebydetectingmines,exploringvolcanoes,orconductingotherwisehazardoustasks.Machinesdrivenbyacomputerdonotsufferfatigueandmaybemoreprecisethanishumanlypossible.InfutureCPScouldmakepossibleconceptsonlyimaginedtoday,suchasunmannedtourstothemoon,bionicsuits,andautomatedlarge-scaleindooragriculturesystems.

Thistrenddoesnotremovetheimportanceofhumaninvolvementbutdoeschangerolesandrequirementsfornewskillsets.Furthermore,asCPSbecomemoredependentoncomputationalprocesses,itbecomesincreasinglyimportantthattheybeengineeredtobereliable,secure,andsafe.FuturescientificandengineeringadvancesthatextendtheconnectivityofthesesystemsanddelivergreaterreliabilitycouldopennewopportunitiestotakeadvantageoftheuniquepropertiesofCPS.

ACALLTOACTION

ThefutureapplicationsofCPSaremoretransformativethantheITrevolutionofthepastthreedecades.Unparalleledanalyticalcapabilities,real-timenetworkedinformation,andpervasivesensing,actuating,andcomputationarecreatingpowerfulopportunitiesforsystemsintegration.NextgenerationCPSwillbeabletoexecuteextraordinarytasksthatarebarelyimaginedtoday.Thesenewcapabilitieswillrequirehigh-confidencecomputingsystemsthatcaninteractappropriatelywithhumansandthephysicalworldindynamicenvironmentsandunderunforeseenconditions.Achievingthesecapabilitiespresentsacomplexandmulti-disciplinaryengineeringchallenge.

FutureCPShavemanysophisticated,interconnectedpartsthatmustinstantaneouslyexchange,parse,andactondetaileddatainahighlycoordinatedmanner.Continuedadvancesinscienceandengineeringwillbenecessarytoenableadvancesindesignanddevelopmentofthesecomplexsystems.Multi-scale,multi-layer,multi-domain,andmulti-systemintegratedinfrastructureswillrequirenewfoundationsinsystemscienceandengineering.Scientistswithanunderstandingofotherwisephysicalsystemswillneedtoworkintandemwithcomputerandinformationscientiststoachieveeffective,workabledesigns.Standardsandprotocolswillbenecessarytohelpensurethatallinterfacesbetweencomponentsarebothcomposableandinteroperable,whilebehavinginapredictable,reliableway.

Thisreportisacalltoaction.ItoutlinesasetofstrategicR&DopportunitiesthatmustbeaddressedtoenableadvancedCPStoreachtheirpotentialanddeliverbroadsocietalbenefitsinthefuture.TheUnitedStates(U.S.)isagloballeaderincybertechnologiesandwell-positionedtogainacompetitiveadvantageinCPS.WorkinCPSismovingrapidlyforwardonaglobalscale.IntheEuropeanUnion,theARTEMISprogramhasproposedspending$7billiononembeddedsystemsandCPSby2013—withaviewtobecomingagloballeaderinthefieldby2020.Japaniscapitalizingonitstraditionalstrengthsinthisfieldtomaketechnologyadvances,andcurrentlyhoststhelargesttradeshowintheworldonembeddedsystems.ThegreatpotentialofCPSismotivatingcountriessuchasIndiaandChinatoforgeaheadintothefield.TheopportunityisnowfortheU.S.toestablishcompetitiveleadershipthroughtheabilitytodevelopnextgenerationsystemsthatyoucantrustyourlifewith.

“Advancedsensing,measurement,andprocesscontrol,includingcyber-physicalsystems…hasapplicabilityacrossalmostallindustrydomains.Thesetechnologiesarecriticalforenhancingtradability.megatrendsofenergyandresourceefficiency,bettersafety,andhigherqualityalsodependhighlyonadvancesinsensingandautomaticprocesscontrol.”

Recommendation#2,IncreaseR&DFundinginTopCross-cuttingTechnologies,

fromtheReporttothePresidentonCapturingDomesticCompetitiveAdvantageinAdvancedManufacturing(PCAST,2012)

REAPINGTHEBENEFITSOFCYBER-PHYSICALSYSTEMS

DevelopmentanduseofadvancedCPSwillgenerateuniqueopportunitiesforeconomicgrowth,createskilledjobsforthelongterm,andhelpensurethehealth,safety,andsecurityofthenationwhileimprovingqualityoflife.CPSaredriversforinnovationinabroadrangeofindustriesandcanleadtonewproductsorunlocknewmarkets(seeTable1).Bytheendofthedecade,embeddednetworkingandcomputingcomponentsareprojectedtoaccountformorethanhalfofthevalueshareindiversesectors,includingautomotive,consumerelectronics,avionicsandaerospace,manufacturing,telecommunications,intelligentbuildings,andhealthandmedicalequipment.ArecentreportestimatesthatthetechnicalinnovationsofCPScouldfinddirectapplicationinsectorscurrentlyaccountingformorethan$32.3trillionineconomicactivity,andwiththepotentialtogrowto$82trillionofoutputby2025—aboutonehalfoftheglobaleconomy(GE,2012).

U.S.manufacturingcompetitivenesswillincreasinglyrelyuponCPStechnologiesforadvancedroboticsandcomputer-controlledmanufacturingprocesseslinkedtoautomateddesigntools,alongwithintegrated,broad-based,anddynamicmanagementofproductionlines,factories,andsupplychains.Equallybroad-basedperformancemetricswillbeneededtoenableintegrationofeconomic,productivity,energy,andsustainabilityobjectives.

CPSarecriticaltonationaleffortstoreduceenergyusewhileincreasingperformance,reliability,andefficiencyacrosseconomicsectors—viathesmartgrid,smarttransportationsystems,smartmanufacturing,andsmartbuildingsinfrastructure.

CPSisalreadyfacilitatingabroadshiftfromhospital-basedtohome-basedhealthcareandexpandingindependentlivingopportunitiesforseniors.Byextendingthereachofqualitycarebeyondtraditionalhospitals,CPS-basedmedicaldevicesandsystemsareenablingmoreindividualizedhealthcareandimprovedpatientoutcomes.Asadvancesaremade,CPScanleadtonewcapabilitiestodiagnose,treat,andpreventdisease.

Innationaldefense,CPSnowdeliverssuperiorityinvirtuallyallweaponssystems,includingmannedandunmannedaircraft,groundvehicles,roboticplatforms,surfaceandunderwatervessels,andtheoverarchingsystemsthatintegratethenation’sfightingforces.Inhomelandsecurityandlawenforcement,CPSisusedindiverserolesfrombombdisposalandemergencyresponseroboticstosensornetworksprovidingadvancewarningofcatastrophicevents.

BROADCHALLENGESFORCYBER-PHYSICALSYSTEMS

Theinterconnectionofnetworking,computing,physical,andhumancomponentsreachesmostengineeredsystemsandyieldsrevolutionarynewcapabilities.Theunderlyingtechnicalchallengesalsohaveagreatdealofcommonalityreflectingarangeoffundamentalscientific,engineering,institutional,andsocietalissues.Barriersarisethroughoutallstagesoftechnologydevelopment,frombasicsciencethroughappliedR&D,demonstration,manufacturing,anddeployment.AddressingthemostcriticalofthesewillhelpensurethatinthefutureCPSarereliable,safe,producible,andsecure.

SCIENTIFICANDTECHNICALCHALLENGES

AdvancementinCPSrequiresanewsystemssciencethatencompassesbothphysicalandcomputationalaspects.Systemsandcomputersciencehasprovidedasolidfoundationforspectacularprogressinengineeringandinformationtechnology;atypeofnewsystemsscienceisnowneededtoaddresstheuniquescientificandtechnicalchallengesofCPS.

Integratingcomplex,heterogeneouslarge-scalesystems.FutureCPSwillcontainheterogeneousdistributedcomponentsandsystemsoflargenumbersthatmustworktogethereffectivelytodeliverexpectedperformance.Thereareseveralchallengestoachievingthistoday.Afundamentalissueisthelackofcommonterminology,modelinglanguages,andrigoroussemanticsfordescribinginteractions—physicalandcomputational—acrossheterogeneoussystems.Achievingtheinteroperabilityandcompositionalityofvariouscomponentsconstructedindifferentengineeringdomainsandsectors,withoutthebenefitofunifyingtheoriesandstandards,presentsamajorchallenge.Alackofclearownershipoftheinterfacebetweensystems(e.g.,betweencode,hardware,andmultipleequipmentvendors)alsocontributestointeroperabilityandintegrationproblems.inadditiontostandards,interoperablesystemsneedtoensurethattimelyoutputs,outcomeagreements,resilience,datatransfers,andtechnicalsecurityprotocolsareaddressedseamlesslywithinandbetweencomponents.Thisincludesaggregatingandsharingdatawithinsystemsaswellasacrosssystemsandcomponents.

Interactionbetweenhumansandsystems.CurrentmodelsforhumanandmachinebehaviorsarenotadequatefordesigningCPSwhenhumansandmachinescloselyinteract.Oneofthechallengesismodelingandmeasuringsituationalawareness—humanperceptionofthesystemanditsenvironmentandchangesinparametersthatarecriticaltodecision-making.Thisisparticularlynecessaryforcomplex,dynamicsystems,suchasthoseusedinaviation,airtrafficcontrol,powerplantoperations,militarycommandandcontrol,andemergencyservices.insuchsystemssituationalawarenesscaninvolvelargeandunpredictablecombinationsofhumanandmachinebehavior.inadequatesituationalawarenessandlimitedabilitytomodelthehumancomponentinlargecomplexsystemshasbeenidentifiedasoneoftheprimaryfactorsinaccidentsrelatedtohumanerror(Nullmeyeretal,2005).

Dealingwithuncertainty.ComplexCPSneedtobeabletoevolveandoperatereliablyinnewanduncertainenvironments.Anincreasingnumberofthesesystemswillalsodemonstrateemergentandunknownbehaviorsastheybecomemoreandmorereliantonmachinelearningmethodologies.inbothcases,uncertaintyintheknowledgeoroutcomeofaprocesswillrequirenewwaystoquantifyuncertaintyduringtheCPSdesignanddevelopmentstages.Currentmethodsforcharacterizationandquantificationofuncertaintyarelimitedandinadequate.Thisisexacerbatedbythelimitsofreliabilityandaccuracyofphysicalcomponents,thevalidityofmodelscharacterizingthem,networkconnections,andpotentialdesignerrorsinsoftware.Ongoingdebatealsosurroundstheexpectationsforquantifyinguncertainty,thatis,attainingperfectresultsgiventheuncertaintyofthephysicalworldandapproximationsindesign.

Measuringandverifyingsystemperformance.Thedifficultyofverifyingperformance,accuracy,reliability,security,andvariousotherrequirementsimpedes

developmentandinvestmentinCPS.Today’scapabilitiesforverificationandvalidation(V&V)ofCPSarelimited,timeconsuming,andcostly,particularlywhencomparedtodevelopmenttime.TwomajorchallengesarethecreationofmethodologiestofurtherthecapabilitiesofV&Vofcomplexsystems,andthedevelopmentoftestbedsanddatasetstosupportaprincipledapproachtothevalidationofcomplexCPS.ifthedesignphaseismorereliable,testingcanbecomemoreinformedandrequirelesstime.TheevaluationchallengeswillbecomeincreasinglydifficultatthelargerscalesandhighercomplexityexpectedforfutureCPS,whichwillhavemassiveandinterconnectedsensor,actuator,andcomponentnetworks.

Robotscanbedesignedtoaccomplishtasksthatwerenotpossiblebefore.Atleft,researchersattheNationalRenewableEnergylaboratoryareusingnewrobotstofabricateandanalyzethin-filmsolarphotovoltaiccellswithgreaterprecisionandspeedthaneverbeforepossible.Whenworkingwithsilicon,therobotcanbuildasemi-conductoronasix-inch-squareplateinabout35minutes—whileanalyzinganomaliesandlightabsorptionandpreparingthenextplates.Therobotisabletocompletetasksthatpreviouslyrequiredasmanyasfivelaboratories.

Credit:NREL17161/PatCorkery(NREL,2010)

MetricsareessentialfortheevaluationofmanyaspectsofCPS,fromdesigntotesting,deployment,andoperation.Keyareaswherescientifically-basedmetricsareneededincludecomplexity,adaptability,safety,security,privacy,resilience,reliability,and

manufacturability.Onemajorchallengeistodesignmetricswithsufficientflexibilitytobeapplicabletoawidevarietyofsystems.Determininghowtousemetricseffectivelypresentsanotherchallenge.Forexample,ifmetricsforprivacyaredefined,thendesignmethodsforachievingprivacyobjectivesmustalsobedeveloped.Therearealsochallengesinmodelingprivacyrequirementssothatasystemcanbevalidatedagainsttheserequirements.

Systemdesign.ThedesignofCPSishamperedbythelimitedabilitytodesignatasystems-level.Therearemanyfactorsimpedingsystem-leveldesign,suchasthelackofformalizedhighfidelitymodelsforlargesystems,insufficientwaysofmeasuringperformance,andinadequatescientificfoundations(e.g.,no‘scienceofsystems’).Akeyfactoriscompositionality1andmodularityinthedesignapproach.CompositionalityinCPSisimpactedbythestronginterdependenciesofsoftwareandsystemsengineeringandoftenlimitedbypoorsystemdesign.Forexample,CPSdevelopmentcouldbegreatlyfacilitatedifsystemcomponentscouldbedevelopedandverifiedinisolationandthesystem-levelpropertiesinferredfromthepropertiesofitsparts.DesignersofCPSaspiretothismodularandcompositionalapproachbothindesignandverification.However,itisonlycurrentlypossibleinnarrowdomainsandwithrestricted,simpleproperties.Scientificandtechnicalchallengestoachievingcompositionalityincludealackofmathematicalandsystemsciencefoundations,formalizedmetrics,evaluationtechniques,andmethodsfordealingwithcross-cuttingpropertiesinthedesignspace.Furtheringthemathematicalmethodologyfordesignspaceexplorationiscriticalforallowingaprincipledapproachtodesigncomplexarchitecturesthataremodular.

1Compositionalityinthissensemeansthatsystem-levelpropertiesorperformancecanbederivedfromthelocalpropertiesofindividualcomponents.

INSTITUTIONAL,SOCIETAL,ANDOTHERCHALLENGES

Trust,security,andprivacy.

Assuringthatsystemsaretrustworthy,secure,andprotecttheprivacyofinformationcreatesbothtechnicalandpolicychallenges.Cyber-securityisacriticalaspectofCPSonmanylevels,includingtheprotectionofnationalinfrastructure,privacyofindividuals,systemintegrity,andintellectualproperty.Recentforeign-basedintrusionsonU.S.computersystems,bothgovernmentandcommercial,illustratethecurrentvulnerabilitiesoftheInternetandtherationaleforaddressingtheglobalsecurityofcyberspace(GAO,2010).Whilecyber-securityisastrongnationalpriorityandmuchprogresshasbeenmadetoensureprotectionfromcyber-attacks,CPSsecurityraisesahostofnewchallenges.Forexample,thecombinationofcyberandphysicalvulnerabilitiesmayleadtoattackmodelsthatarefundamentallynew,hardtoanalyze,andcarrysubstantialriskinmaintainingphysicalintegrityofcriticalsystems.

ChallengestosecureCPSincludemodelingthesecuritythreat,developingaformalapproachtoCPSvulnerabilityassessments,anddesigningevolutionaryandresilientarchitecturestohandlerapidlyevolvingcyberandphysicalthreats.Alongwithsecurity,maintainingprivacyandconfidentialityisanimportantaspect.patientsdependingonimplantedmedicaldevices,forexample,wantprotectionoftheiridentityandcriticalhealthinformationthatcouldbeexposedviatheconnectionoftheirdevicestomonitoringnetworks.Industryrequiresprotectionofintellectualpropertyaswellas

sensitivebusinessanddemographicinformation.Assuringtheconfidentialityofinformationandcontrollingtheaccessanduseofdataarechallenging,especiallyasthesystemsthatcollect,manage,andanalyzeinformationarerapidlyevolvingandinsomecasesneedtooperateinadistributedorrelativelyopenenvironment.

Effectivemodelsofgovernance.TherapidlyemergingglobalnetworksofCPSinenergy,airtraffic,transportation,cloud-basedservicesandmanyotherscallfornewgovernancemodels—bothdomesticandglobal—forprovidingstandards,protocols,andoversightofsystemsthatoperatebothinphysicalandcyberspace.Thesenewgovernancemodelsarebeingexploredbutarenotyetformalized.Governancecouldprovidestructuredcontrolandregulationforthesesystemsandreduceliabilitiesthatarisebecauseofunwantedintrusionsorothervulnerabilities.Governanceisbeingdiscussedinmanyorganizations,rangingfromexpertforumstotreaty-based,decision-makingbodieswithingovernments.Thereisgrowingdebatearoundtheseissues,withsomepushingforincreasedintergovernmentaloversightwhileotherscontendthattheprivatesectorcanself-regulateviadevelopmentofappropriateeconomicincentives,rules,andcontrols.

Manyfactorieshaverobotsaswellashumansworkinginthem;butthetwodonotalwaysworkwelltogether.AttheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology(MIT),researchershavecomeupwithanalgorithmthatmaymakeiteasierandsaferforhumansandrobotstoworkside-by-side,givingrobotsthetoolstolearnthepreferencesofahumancoworker.

(MIT,2012)

CreationofCPSbusinessmodels.TheextremesystemsintegrationinherentinCPSisadisruptivetechnologythatchangesthestatusquo,createsnewindustries,andeliminatesothers.TransformationoftraditionalindustriesintothosethatareCPS-basedisacomplex,highriskprocessbecauseitrequiresfusingthebusinessmodelsoftheITindustrywiththoseofengineering-basedindustries.Thesefusedbusinessmodelsarenotyetwell-establishedandcanbedifficulttoconvey.AcontributingfactoristhateconomicandotherdatathatcouldbeusedtosupportabusinesscasearenotwelldocumentedforCPS.Thelackofageneric,provenbusinessmodelcaninhibitinvestmentsinnewtechnologiesandsystems,inspiteofthebenefits.

Today’sexamplesofsuccessfulCPSbusinessmodelsincludetheaviationindustry,whichhasincorporatedcyber-physicalavionicsystemsinmodernairplanes.Inthiscase,theindustryunderstandsthesafetyimplicationsandhasdevelopedstringentsafetystandardsandcertificationprocesses.AsCPSbecomelargerandmorecomplex,theissuesofbusinessriskandliabilityalsoincrease.Thereisanopportunitytomitigatethisriskbysharingthecostofdevelopingprecompetitiveandinfrastructuretechnologies.

UnderstandingthevalueofCPS.CPSwillbenefitfromwell-developedinfrastructure,whichrequiressignificantupfrontinvestment.ThevalueofCPSneedstobebetterunderstoodforsuchinvestmentstooccur.R&DonCPSisoftendescribedintermsthataretheoreticalorincludevocabularythatisnotreadilyrecognized.Asaresult,understandingthesubstanceandapplyingtheresultsofCPSR&Dcanbechallengingforbusinesses,decision-makers,andend-users.LessacademicandmorestrategicallyinsightfulwaysofpresentingCPSresearch,benefits,andriskswouldfacilitatequickerandlessexpensiveindustryadoptionofemergingtechnologiesaswellasimprovedunderstandingofthebenefitsandapplicationsofCPSresearch.SomestudieshavepresentedmethodstosuccessfullyarticulatethevalueofCPS-relatedtechnology(BAH,2010)butoverallthisremainsachallenge.

Multi-disciplinaryeducationandcollaboration.ThescienceandengineeringofCPSarecross-disciplinaryinnature,requiringexpertiseincomputerscience,mathematics,statistics,engineering,andthefullspectrumofphysicalsciences—evenextendingintotheartssuchasethicsandpsychology.Workingacrossdisciplinescanbechallenging,asitrequiresexpertswithhighlydiversebackgroundstocommunicateonacommonbasis.Inacademia,thereisalackofconcentrated,multi-disciplinaryCPSeducationandresearch,aseffortshavefocusedonthecyberorphysicaldomainsratherthanacombinationofthetwo.Significantchallengesexistincreatingmulti-disciplinaryCPSprogramswithintheexistinguniversitystructure,whichhashistoricallybeendividedintoconventionaldisciplines(e.g.,computerscience,engineering,chemistry).Academiahaspreviouslyconfrontedandsuccessfullyaddressedsimilarchallenges,resultinginthecreationofnew,vibrantindustriessuchasbio-engineering.

Skilledworkforce.CPSaresophisticated,advancedtechnologysystemsthatrequireknowledgeandtrainingtodesign,develop,implement,anduse.Theyrequirenewskillsandanewworkforce.CreatingandmaintainingaskilledworkforcetosupportfutureCPSisasignificantchallengeinitsownright.CPStechnologyisarapidlychangingfieldandmechanismsfortrainingandcontinuingeducationwillbeneeded,aswellasqualifiedinstructorsthatstayabreastofemergingdevelopments.Rigoroustoolsforworkforce

traininginCPSarenotcurrentlyavailablebutcouldbehighlyeffectiveincreatingandmaintainingafutureworkforce.

ResearchprogramsinCPSacrossthenationareleadingtonewdiscoveriesandtechnologieswhilehelpingtoeducateamulti-disciplinaryfutureworkforce.AconsiderableportionofthisresearchisconductedthroughU.S.governmentprograms.

Forexample,attheNationalScienceFoundation(NSF)theCPSprogramprovidessupporttouniversitiestodevelopthecoresystemscienceneededtoengineercomplexcyber-physicalsystemsandfostersaresearchcommunitycommittedtoadvancingresearchandeducationinCPS.AttheDefenseAdvancedResearchProjectsAgency(DARPA),researchisongoinginseveralareasthatwillaccelerateprogressinCPS.Theseincludeadaptivevehicles,constructionofhigh-assurancecyber-physicalsystems,andadvancedmodel-baseddesignmethodsforcyber-physicalsystems.Withinagencies,researchinCPSisunderwayonmission-orientedapplications,suchasthesmartgrid,intelligentbuildings,andadvancedmedicaldevices.TheactivitiesinCPSacrossfederalagenciesarecoordinatedbytheNetworkingandInformationTechnologyR&D(NITRD)SeniorSteeringGrouponCPSandtheHighConfidenceSoftwareandSystemsCoordinatingGroup.Thisgroupfostersclosecommunicationandliaisonamongagencies,academia,andindustrytoaddressCPSR&Dneedsandfacilitateinteragencyprogramplanninginthisfield.

STRATEGICR&DOPPORTUNITIES

AnumberofstrategicR&DopportunitieshavebeenidentifiedascriticaltoacceleratingprogressinCPSandovercomingsomeoftheimportantchallenges.TheseareillustratedinTable2anddescribedindepthonthefollowingpages.TheycoverthefullspectrumofCPSdesign,development,implementation,anduse,including:

•Scienceandengineeringfoundations

•Systemperformance,quality,andacceptance

•Applieddevelopmentanddeployment

•WorkforceforcontinuinginnovationinCPS

MeasurementscienceandtechnologyadvancesarewoventhroughouttheseopportunitiesandimpactallstagesofCPSdevelopment,fromfundamentalscienceanddiscoverytocommercializationanddeployment.Forexample,themajorchallengesofinteroperability,interactionsbetweenhumansandmachines,understandinguncertainty,andevaluatingperformanceallhavestrongrootsinmeasurementscienceandtechnology.

ThestrategicR&Dopportunitiesarerecurringthemesthatappearinmultipletechnologyareasandconsequentlywouldhavefar-reachingimpactifaddressed.TheyrepresentthepriorityresearchthathasbeenidentifiedasessentialtoadvancingthestateofCPSandreapingthepotentialbenefitstosocietyandthenation.

SCIENCEANDENGINEERINGFOUNDATIONS

Opportunity

Robust,effectivedesignandconstructionofsystemsandinfrastructure

ThedevelopmentofCPSrequiresanewsystemssciencefoundationthatcaneffectivelyintegratetheelementsofcomplexcomputationalsystemsandprocesseswithphysicalsystems.Buildingblocksfordesigninvolvemodeling,synthesis,simulation,andverificationcapabilities,newdesigntoolsandframeworks,ontologiesandmodeling

languagesthatcrossdisciplineboundaries,methodsthatenablescalabilityfromconcepttooperation,andthemeanstoensurearangeoffunctional,performance,safety,security,andreliabilityrequirements.

Developcost-effectivesystemdesign,analysis,andconstructionmethods-BeforemakinglargeinvestmentsinaprototypeCPS,itisimportantfordesignerstocreateamodeltounderstandthedynamicsofthemanysubsystemsandtheirinteractions,includingtheenvironmentinwhichthedeployedsystemmustoperate.Approachesareneededtodevelopmodelsthatarerobust,semanticallyprecise,reducedesignandverificationcosts,andarereusableassets.

Today,buildingformalized,highfidelitymodelsusingmathematicallybased,formalizedmodelinglanguagesisexpensive,timeconsuming,andlackingtoolsandmethodsforlargeheterogeneoussystemssuchasCPS.Suchmodelsshouldincludeanappropriatelevelofabstractionforthepropertiesrelevanttothesystembeingdesigned,andbeabletosimulatesystembehaviorunderarangeofconditionsandassumptions.New,formalmodelingmethodsareneededtocreaterobust,physicallyrelevantsimulationsthataccuratelyrecreatescenariosthatCPSsystemswillexperienceinoperation.

Creatingmoredetailedmodelsbasedonfirstprinciplesisdesirablebutincreasesthenumberofparametersthatmustbeestimatedformodelcalibration—andthemeasurementsrequiredtofittheseparameterscanbedifficulttoobtain.Methodswillbeneededtorecognizedominantparametersandapplyabstractionstoremovethosethatarelessrelevantfromthemodel.ForCPSthisisespeciallyimportantindevelopingmodelsthatareusefulforstudiesatthesystemslevel.Suchmodelswouldevidencethephenomenologicalbehaviorsthatemergefromthedetailedfirstprinciplesbutbalanceabstractionandapproximation,whilecharacterizingtheseinlightofthepurposetheyserveinsystemdesign.

Thedevelopmentandbroadapplicationofrigorousmodelingtoolscouldreducethecostanddurationofthedesignprocess,whileimprovingdesignquality,performance,resilience,anddependability.Ultimately,domain-specificCPSdesigntoolsarerequiredforaerospace,defense,transportation,medicine,andotherindustriesthatarebuiltonstandardized,configurable,andreusabletoolsuitesforsafety-criticalandhigh-reliabilitysystems.

Inadditiontosystemmodeling,majorchallengesincludedesigningtoconflictingrequirementsofsystemcomponents(whichcancauseunintendedconsequences),alackoftoolsorframeworkforco-designingheterogeneouscomponentsandsystems,alackofdesignstandardstoenableinteroperability,andalackoffoundationstoenablecompositionality.Co-designisaparticularlycriticalfactorinthedevelopmentofsystemsthatfaceextremedemandsandrequirehighlevelsofperformance,safetyandreliability.InteroperabilityisachallengethatisexacerbatedinCPSwheretherearelarge,complex,highlynetworkedsystemsandcomponentsoriginatingfrommultipledomainsanddisciplines.

Createdomain-specificframeworksfordesign—Engineeringmethodsforco-designandnewstandardsareneededthatofferacommonsemanticfoundationfor

modelinglanguagesforexchangeandtranslationacrossdomains.Creatingdomain-specificdesignframeworksthatarebuiltongenericbutcustomizablemethodsandtoolswouldcontributesubstantiallytoreducingtimetomarket,developmentcosts,andthecomplexityofthedesignprocess.Finally,thedesignandimplementationofCPSneedstobeunderstoodasaprocessthatincludesnotonlyevaluationandco-design,butincorporatestheabilitytobuildsophisticationasthelevelsofneedadvance.

Managetheroleoftimeandsynchronizationinarchitecturedesign—Managementoftimeandsynchronizationisacomplexyetcriticalissueforreal-timeCPS.Generallyspeaking,synchronizationisthecoordinationofeventsthatmustoccurtooperateasystemandthecoordinationoftimebetweenthecyberandphysicaldimensionsofCPS.Incomputerscience,forexample,synchronizationreferstothecoordinationofsimultaneousthreadsorprocessestocompleteatask.Withamobiledevice,synchronizationoccurswhenthedevicecommunicateswithapplicationsonapersonalcomputerorserver(e.g.,syncingordockingthedevice).Foravehiclesystemormanufacturingunit,timemanagementoccursinreferencetophysicalprocessesthathaveactualphysicalconsequences.Today,timekeepingtechnologiessuchasGlobalPositioningSystemsatellitesandtheNetworkTimeProtocolproviderealtimeapproximationofCoordinatedUniversalTime(worldtimestandard)andareusedformanysynchronizationapplications.

Poortimingandsynchronizationcanresultindataloss,downtime,andperformancefailure.Majorchallengesincludeeffectivetimingandsynchronizationofmultipletasks,developingaunified,commonviewoftime,measuringtimeandtimescales,andcommunicatingtimecharacteristicstosystemcomponentsorsensors.Overcomingthesechallengescouldimpactanydatadriven,real-timeapplication.Simplyput,effectivetimemanagementwillmakeiteasierforapplicationstoruninatime-correctmanner.Tacklingthesechallengesmayrequiremulti-layeredarchitecturefortimemanagement.

StandardsforAutonomousVehicles

Thereisagrowingacceptanceofeitherpartiallyorfullyautonomousmobileequipmentinthemanufacturingarea.However,inmanufacturingfacilitiespeopleandmobileequipmentfrequentlymovethroughthesameclutteredandconstantly-changingenvironment.Standardsareessentialtoreducethepotentialforinjuryandensureasafeenvironment.Theabilitytocontrolmultipleautonomousvehiclesfromdifferentmanufacturerswithdifferentsensingcapabilitiesisalsoachallenge.

Enablenatural,moreseamlesshuman-CPSinteractions—Abettermodelofhumanstrengthsandweaknessesandthecorrespondingmachinestrengthsandweaknessesisneededtocreateamorenatural,seamlessinteractionbetweenhumansandCPS.Modelsthatareadaptive,implementableatvaryingdegreesofsophistication,andoptimizedforhumaninterventionswillhelpmanagerisksandsafetyassystemsmovetowardmixed-initiativemodesofoperation.Theycouldalsomakehumansmorecomfortablewithandacceptingofmachineinteractions.

Cognitivemodelsareneededforhuman-machinebehaviorthatcanbevalidatedandbecomeadaptabletointeractionsastheyoccur.Cognitivemodelsshouldalsoconsider

thegrowingnumberofautonomousCPSandthathuman-machineinteractionsareincreasinglyparticipatory.Therequirementtocoupleunpredictablehumanbehaviorwiththepredictable,hard-wiredbehaviorofmachinesandphysicalsystemscreatesinherentdifficultiesindevelopingsuchmodels.

Developsystematicinter-processandinterpersonalcommunicationforsensorsandactuators—AcorecomponentofCPSistheinterpretationofdatafromvarioussources.CPScancontainhighlyconnectedandmassivenetworksofsensors,actuators,andotherdevicesthatcollectandactonmanytypesofdata.Itisinherentlydifficulttomeasurethebehaviorofcomplexsystemsthatcontainmultiplepathwaysfordatainterpretation,planning,andcontrol.

Theneedtomeasurehumaninteractionsaddsanotherlevelofcomplexityanduncertainty.Astructureddesignandprocessintegrationmethodisneededtosystematicallyrelatemultiplesignalsandsymbolsforinter-processandinterpersonalcommunicationsacrossdomainsandapplications.Thiswouldenablethedevelopmentoflessexpensiveplug-and-playsensors,createopportunitiesformodular,plug-and-playCPS,andleadtostructureddesignandintegrationtoolsthatreducethecostandtimetomarketofnewsystems.

SYSTEMPERFORMANCE,QUALITY,ANDACCEPTANCE

Opportunity

improvedperformanceandqualityassuranceofcomputationalandphysicalsystems

DevelopmentandacceptanceofCPSinreal-worldapplicationswillrequireassurancesthatthesesystemswillperformasexpected.AssessingbothperformanceandqualityinvolvesV&Vofthefunctioningoftheentiresystemaswellasindividualcomponents.Theabilitytoinfertheperformanceandqualityoftheentiresystemfromitscomponentscanbeadvantageous—apropertythatisoftenreferredtoascompositionality—butischallengingtoachieveinpractice.Theabilitytocompareperformanceandqualityconsistentlyacrosssystemsisessentialbutwillrequirestandardized,science-basedmetricsforsafety,security,resilience,andotherkeyparameters.PredictingoperationalperformanceandqualitycharacteristicsofCPSwithhighconfidence(i.e.,quantifiedassessment)isespeciallyimportantforsystemsthatoperateautonomouslyorthatdirectlyimpacthumanhealthandsafety.

Createmethodsforsystem-levelevaluation,verification,andvalidationofCPS—EvaluatingtheperformanceofCPSagainstsystemrequirementsisneededtofacilitateacceptance,investment,andpracticaluseofthesesystems.SomeclassesofCPSwillrequireextensiveandsustainedinvestment(e.g.,smarttransportation,smartgrid)andasolidunderstandingofpotentialperformancetomovetechnologiesforward.System-levelevaluationcanbeperformedwithV&Vmethods,especiallyforsafetyandtrustworthinessrequirements,butwithoutstandardizedrequirements,V&Viscustomizedandcostly.V&Visalsochallengedbyaninabilitytoeffectivelyevaluatethewholesystem(howwellcomponentsworkinconcert)sincetheperformanceofindividualcomponents(i.e.,cyber,physical,andcyber-physicalassemblies)doesnotnecessarilytranslatetooverallsystemperformance.Thedifficultyofevaluatingintegrated

componentswhichinteractinmultipletemporal,spatial,andpowerscalesalsoaddstothechallenge.CosteffectivemethodsofverifyingandvalidatingCPScouldhelpdecreasethecostofsystemintegration,whileincreasingsystemreliability.

FoundationsandinfrastructurearecurrentlylackingforevaluationandV&VofemergingCPS,butcouldbedevelopedbyleveragingmethodsandtoolsalreadyinuseinothersystems.Anintegratedapproachwillbeneededtoenablegreaterunderstandingoftheinteractionsbetweencomponents,theroleandimpactofinterfaces,andemergingsystemproperties.

Autonomouslyoperatingsystems(thosewithlittlehumaninteractionordecisionmaking)requirecertificationprocessesthatattesttoassuredsystemperformance.Certificationisajudgmentthatasystemisadequatelysafe,secure,ormeetsothercriteriaforagivenapplicationinasetenvironment.Tobevalid,thisjudgmentshouldbebasedonasmuchexplicitandcredibleevidenceaspossible,withafoundationingoodmetricsincludingwaystomeasurecomplexity.

However,certificationofcomplex,heterogeneoussystemsisextremelydifficult,particularlyinthedesignphase.Currently,systemarchitecture,design,integration,anddesignspaceexplorationareonlyrobustenoughtoallowforbuildingsystemsfirst,thentestingandcertifying.Achallengeistocreatemethodologytoenablecompositionalcertification,whichincludescertificationofcomponentsseparatelywithouttheneedforrecertifyingafterthesystemcomponentsareintegrated.

Anotherchallengeisintegratingdesignartifactsandanalysesasevidence(includingpartialandhistoric)intothecertificationprocess.

Developscience-basedmetricsforsystemqualities(e.g.,security,privacy,safety,resilience,adaptability,flexibility,reusability,dependability)—Auniversalsetofscience-basedmetricsisneededtoevaluateandpredicthowCPSwillperformwithrespecttokeysystem-levelpropertiessuchassecurity,privacy,safety,resiliency,anddependability.Dependabilityinthiscasemeansthatasystemishighlyreliablewhenrunning,butalsocapableofeffectivelypredicting,recognizing,andquicklycoveringfromunforeseenevents.Whileitistechnicallychallengingtodevelopscientifically-basedmeasurementsforthesebroadconcepts,theyarefundamentaltodevelopinganddeployingdependableCPS.

MetricsareneededforallphasesofCPSdevelopment,fromtheearlydesignstagesthroughprototype,testing,deployment,operation,andoperationregimes(e.g.,beforeandaftersystemchangesorfailures).Design-phasemetricswillenableengineerstobuildinsafety,resilience,anddependabilityintheearlystagesofdevelopment.Duringthetestingstage,metricscanhelpconfirmthatprototypesexhibitthedesired

characteristics.Indeploymentandoperation,metricscanmeasureandmonitorsystembehaviorandprovideindicationsofemergingissues.Theuseofscience-basedmetricswillleadtogreatersystemreliabilityandsafety,andallowforfewer,lower-impactfailures.Metricscouldalsobeformulatedtospecifyaminimumlevelofreliabilityandamaximumlevelofuncertainty.Metricsarealsoessentialtosupportingbusinessmodelsandinvestmentbecausetheywillenablecleardefinitionofquestionsofliability.

Effectivelycharacterizeandquantifyreliabilityamidstuncertainties—ReliableCPSmustbehavewithsomedegreeofcertainty,eveninadynamic,unpredictableenvironment.Characterizationandquantificationofreliabilityprovidesinformationonhowasystemrespondstoexpectedandunexpectedevents,andaidsinunderstandingthepotentialriskstosystemoperation.Thenumerousheterogeneouscomponents,disparatecharacteristicsofthephysicalversuscyberelements,andoperationaluncertaintiesfoundinCPScomplicatethecharacterizationofreliability.Failurescouldoccurinbothcyberandphysicalcomponentsandaffectothersystemcomponentsincomplexways.Forexample,multiplecaraccidentsexperiencedbyasmarttrafficcontrolsystemcouldunexpectedlyoverloadtheinformationprocessingcapacityanditsabilitytorespondinrealtime.

Today,formalmethodsfordeterminingreliabilityarelackingformostCPSandneedtobedeveloped.Suchmethodsshouldbeabletoadapttochanginginputs,beabletocomposedisparatesystems,andprovidereproducibleresults.Effectivecharacterizationandquantificationofreliabilitywillensurethatsystemsarerobustandresilient,andprovidebetterunderstandingofpotentialriskstosystemoperation.

SYSTEMSOFENGINEERING

Opportunity

Effectiveandreliablesystemintegrationandinteroperability

AuniquecharacteristicofCPSisthattheyintegratecomputingandcommunicationcapabilitiesinthesensingandactuationfunctionsofmultiplecomponentsinthephysicalworld.ForCPStooperatedependably,safely,securely,efficiently,andinrealtime,someifnotallcomponents,whethercyberorphysical,mustbeabletointeractandcommunicate.Thesetightlycoupledinteractionsrequireahighlevelofsystemintegrationandinteroperability.Systeminterfacesmustbecompatibleandinteractionsshouldbegovernedbywell-definedspecifications;simulationsoftheseinterfacesshouldalsousesemanticallyprecisemodelinglanguagesandvocabularies.Inaddition,individualcomponents,aswellasthetotalsystem,mustbeabletointeractseamlesslywithandrespondtohumanoperatorsandinterventions.

Createuniversaldefinitionsforrepresentingultra-largeheterogeneoussystems—Standardmethodsandsharedconceptualizationareneededforaligningthedescriptionoflarge,heterogeneousgroupsofsystemcomponents,characteristicofmanyCPS,includingspecificationsfortechnology,humanelements,time,andspace.Standardmethodsshouldincludewaystouniversallyandvisuallyrepresentoverallsystembehaviorandperformanceoftheintegratedcomponents.Theobjectiveofsharedconceptualizationistoprovidestandarddefinitionsand/orwaysforreadilytranslatingormappingbetweensystemsthatcanbeembracedbybothindustryusersandsuppliersoftechnologiesand

subsystems.DevelopingagreementsandmethodstoalignCPSiscomplicatedbytheheterogeneityanddisciplinaryisolationofvocabulariesandmodelinglanguagesfordifferentaspectsoflarge,heterogeneoussystems.Challengesincludeaninabilitytomeasurethepresenceandcorrectnessofcompletesystemrequirementsandbehaviorofcomponentswithinthecontextoftheoverallsystem.Thekeyparametersthatneedtobeuniversallydefinedmustalsobeidentified;thiswillrequirecross-disciplinaryinteractionsamongthecyberandphysicalsciencescommunities.Ifsuccessfullydeveloped,aconsistentsetofdefinitionscouldlowercurrentlyhighintegrationanddevelopmentcosts,andprovideameanstoclarifytoptobottomsystembehavior.

ComputerscientistsandengineersatHarvardUniversityhavecreatedbuglike‘Kilobots’thatcaninteractandcoordinateasateam,makingiteasierforresearcherstotestcollectivealgorithmsonhundredsoreventhousandsoftinyrobots.Inonedemonstration25Kilobotsdisplayedteam-orswarm-likebehaviorssuchasforaging,formationcontrol,andsynchronization.Therobotsaremodeledafterinsectslikeantsandbeesthatparticipateincoordinatedgroupbehaviorssuchasfoodforaging,transportinglargeobjects,andnestbuilding.SupportforthisworkwasprovidedbytheNationalScienceFoundationandtheWyssInstitute.

Buildaninter-connectedandinteroperableshareddevelopmentinfrastructure—Thecurrentmarketdoesnothavegovernanceorbusinessmodelsinplacetomotivatethedevelopmentofnetworked,cooperating,humaninteractivesystems.Developersmustassumetheriskofsharingproprietaryinformationwithcompetitorsandtheliabilityofsuccessfullyintegratingtheirsystemswithexternalsystemstoensurehighlevelsofperformanceandfunctionality.Buildinganinfrastructurefoundationthatisinteroperable,containsabalanceofopensourceandproprietaryinformation,andoperatesunderthesamestandardswillprovideaprotectedframeworkfromwhichinteroperabilityissuesareminimizedandsystemdevelopmentcouldbeprofitable.Forexample,themanufacturersofautonomouscarswillhavetoworkwitheachotheraswellaswiththedevelopersofthetrafficregulatinginfrastructuretodevelopfunctionalproducts.Buildingfromastandardfoundationwouldsavetimeandcostthroughthesharingofcriticalinformation,whileavoidingtheliabilityofasolelyproprietaryproduct.

Developabstractioninfrastructuretobridgedigitalandphysicalsystemcomponents—Innovativeapproachestoabstractions2andarchitecturesthatenableseamlessintegrationofdigitalandphysicalsystemsforcontrol,communication,andcomputationareneededfordevelopmentofCPS.Theseneedtosupportandfacilitatecost-effectiveintegration.Recently,computersandnetworkshavepushedaheadintomonitoringandcontrollingavarietyofphysicalprocessesincludingfeedbackloops.Inthesesystems,issuesarisefromthesafetyandreliabilityrequirementsofthephysicalcomponentsthatarequalitativelydifferentfromthoseofthecomputingcomponents.Becausephysicalcomponentsarequalitativelydifferentfromsoftwarecomponents,standardabstractionsthatareonlyphysicaloronlycomputationalfailwhenusedinCPS.

2I ncomputerscience,abstractionistheprocessoffindinganalternaterepresentationthatembodieslessdetailbutmaintainsthepropertiesofinterestoftheoriginalrepresentation.Assuch,anabstractionisalwaysrelativetoasetofproperties.

Forexample,incommunicationnetworks,interfaceshavebeenstandardizedbetweendifferentlayersofthenetworkstacktoallowheterogeneoussystemstooperatein

aplug-and-playmanner.ThishascreatedmanyopportunitiesfortheproliferationofinnovativetechnologyandtheInternet.However,today’sscienceandengineeringknowledgebasedoesnotincludesimilarstandardizedabstractionlayersandarchitecturestosupportintegrationandinteroperabilityinCPS(Lee,2012).

Theobjectiveistodevelopacollaborative,open,andhighly-evolvableabstractionframeworkandinfrastructurethatspansmultipledomainsandapplications.Theoutcomeswouldbeagreaterconfidenceintheintegrationofcyberandphysicalcomponents,theabilityforsystem-wideandcompositionalevaluation,andgreateropennessofsystems.

WORKFORCEFORCONTINUINGINNOVATION

Opportunity

Dynamic,multi-disciplinaryeducationandtraining

Buildingandsustainingaworkforcecapableofdeveloping,innovating,andoperatingfutureCPSwillrequiresignificantenhancementsinengineeringcurricula,renewedemphasisonsystemssciencesandengineering,andanincreasedemphasisonmultidisciplinaryresearch.Dynamictrainingprogramsforengineers,operators,andusersofthesesystemswillcreatepathwaysforkeepingtheworkforceontopofnewdevelopmentsastheyemerge.

Establishmulti-departmentCPSdegreesandresources—Universitysystemshavehistoricallybeendividedintotraditionaldisciplines(e.g.,computerscience,electricalengineering).TobuildandsustainafutureworkforceforCPSwillrequiretheincorporationofmulti-disciplinaryandtargetededucationalprogramswithintheexistinguniversitystructure.AprototypeprogramcouldbedevelopedincoordinationwiththeNationalAcademyofEngineering,theAccreditationBoardforEngineeringandTechnology,anduniversityorganizationssupportingresearchinCPS.Developmentofnewtextbooksandcoursesrelevanttothecurriculawouldneedtooccurinparallel.TheobjectiveistocreateamoreformalteachingandtrainingapproachinCPSleadingtoanewgenerationofscientistsandengineersqualifiedandinterestedinworkinginthisfield.CPSeducationalprogramswillalsoappealtostudentswithaninterestinnewmediabyprovidingopportunitiesforgainingknowledgeinemergingITmodalities.

PursuedynamictrainingandcertificationinCPS—CPSisadynamicfieldthatrequirescontinuouseducationandretraining.Anumberofapproachesarepossible,includingdevelopmentofCPSdegrees,certifications,andaccreditations,onsitetrainingprograms,orrobustinternshipsthatallowformulti-disciplinarytraining.Forexample,ajointindustrialandacademiccertificationcommitteecouldbeformedtodevelopaprototypetestcertificationandaccreditationforCPStraining.

Twentyyearsago,ittookaweektopurifyasingleprotein.Today,roboticchromatographysystemsaremakingitpossibletodramaticallyreducethetimeneededforproteinpurification.Above,IrinaDementieva,abiochemist,andYoungchangKim,abiophysicistandcrystallographer,workwiththefirstrobotofitstypeintheU.S.toautomateproteinpurification.

CONCLUSION

ThepotentialofCPStochangeeveryaspectoflifeisenormous.Conceptssuchas

autonomouscars,roboticsurgery,intelligentbuildings,smartelectricgrid,smartmanufacturing,andimplantedmedicaldevicesarejustsomeofthepracticalexamplesthathavealreadyemerged.Thesesystemsallrelyonacomputationalcorethatistightlyconjoinedandcoordinatedwithcomponentsinthephysicalworld.

Assystemsevolvetheywillshifttherelianceonhumandecisionmakingintonew,morestrategicaspectsandwillincreasinglyrelyonoperationalizinghumanknowledgethroughcomputationalintelligence.Thiscanyieldmanyadvantages,suchasthecomputationalcoredetectingandrespondingfasterthanhumans,beingmorepreciseandlesspronetofatiguethanhumanlypossible,orexpandingthecapabilitiesofthesystembeyondtheoperator’sskills.AswebecomemoredependentonCPS,thechallengeistodesignsystemsthataredependableandreliable—systemswecantrustourliveswith.

Thisreportisacalltoaction.Progresshasbeenmade,buttherearemanychallengesahead.OvercomingthesechallengescreatesexcitingopportunitiestoensurethattheU.S.isatechnologyleaderinthefieldofCPSwithagloballycompetitiveedge.Significantchallengesoutlinedinthiscalltoactioninclude:

•Robust,effectivedesignandconstructionofsystemsandinfrastructure—keytodesigningdependablesystemsfromthegroundupandreducingcostandtimetomarket;

•Improvedperformanceandqualityassurance—essentialforspurringfutureinvestment,acceptance,anduseofinnovativesystemsthatpromisetoproviderevolutionaryimprovementstoconventionalpractice;

•Effectiveandreliablesystemintegrationandinteroperability—requiredforhighlyconnectedandnetworkedcomponentstoworktogethereffectivelyasatotalsystem;and

•Dynamic,multi-disciplinaryeducationandtraining—willmakepossiblesustainedgrowthandinnovationandspawnanewgenerationofentrepreneurs,aswellasthenextgenerationofcyber-physicalsystems.

REFERENCES

GAO,2010.ProtectingtheFederalGovernment’sInformationSystemsandtheNation’sCyberCriticalInfrastructures.GovernmentAccountabilityOffice,2010.Accessed12/18/12.http://www.gao.gov/highrisk/risks/safety-security/government_information_systems.php

GE,2012.PeterC.EvansandMarcoAnnunziata,PushingtheBoundariesofMindsandMachines.GeneralElectric,November2012.Accessed12/18/12.http://www.ge.com/docs/chapters/IndustrialInternet.pdf

Harvard,2012.“Kilobotsareleavingthenest:Swarmoftiny,collaborativerobotswillbemadeavailabletoresearchers,educators,andenthusiasts.”November21,2011.Accessed12/10/12.http://www.seas.harvard.edu/news-events/press-releases/kilobots-are-leaving-the-nestandNSFNews:http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=122415

Lee,2012.EdwardA.Lee,CyberPhysicalSystems:DesignChallenges,

InternationalSymposiumonObject/Component/Service-OrientedReal-TimeDistributedComputing(ISORC),May6,2008,Orlando,FL.

MIT,2012.“Roboticassistantsmayadapttohumansinthefactory:Newalgorithmallowsrobotsandhumanstoworksidebyside.”June2012.MITNewsOffice.Accessed12/18/12.http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2012/robot-manufacturing-0612.html

NREL,2010.“NREL’sNewRobotsScrutinizeSolarCells.”March22,2010.NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryNewsroom.Accessed11/15/12.http://www.nrel.gov/news/features/feature_detail.cfm/featureid=1547

Nullmeyeretal,2005.Nullmeyer,R.T.,Stella,D.,Montijo,G.A.,&Harden,S.W.,“HumanfactorsinAirForceflightmishaps:Implicationsforchange.”Proceedingsofthe27thAnnualInterservice/IndustryTraining,Simulation,andEducationConference(paperno.2260),Arlington,VA,NationalTrainingSystemsAssociation,2005.

PCAST,2012.ReporttothePresidentonCapturingDomesticCompetitiveAdvantageinAdvancedManufacturing.President’sCouncilofAdvisorsonScienceandTechnology(PCAST),July2012.Accessed10/31/12.http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/pcast_amp_steering_committee_report_final_july_27_2012.pdf

BAH,2010.Systems-2020Study,FinalReport.BoozAllenHamilton,2010.Accessed12/18/12.http://www.acq.osd.mil/se/docs/BAH-Systems-2020-Report-Final.pdf

FORMOREINFORMATIONCONTACT:

AlbertJ.Wavering

Chief,IntelligentSystemsDivision

EngineeringLaboratory

NationalInstituteofStandardsandTechnology

301-975-3418

wavering@nist.gov

www.nist.gov/el/isd

NIST

NationalInstituteofStandardsandTechnology

U.S.DepartmentofCommerce

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2015WorldwideThreatAssessmentoftheU.S.IntelligenceCommunity

SenateArmedServicesCommittee

JamesR.Clapper

DirectorofNationalIntelligence

February26,2015

INTRODUCTION

ChairmanMcCain,RankingMemberReed,MembersoftheCommittee,thankyoufortheinvitationtooffertheUnitedStatesIntelligenceCommunity’s2015assessmentofthreatstoUSnationalsecurity.MystatementreflectsthecollectiveinsightsoftheIntelligenceCommunity’sextraordinarymenandwomen,whomIamprivilegedandhonoredtolead.WeintheIntelligenceCommunityarecommittedeverydaytoprovidethenuanced,multidisciplinaryintelligencethatpolicymakers,warfighters,anddomesticlawenforcementpersonnelneedtoprotectAmericanlivesandAmerica’sinterestsanywhereintheworld.InformationavailableasofFebruary13,2015wasusedinthepreparationofthisassessment.

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GLOBALTHREATS

Cyber*Counterintelligence*Terrorism*WeaponsofMassDestructionandProliferation*SpaceandCounterspace*TransnationalOrganizedCrime*EconomicsandNaturalResources*HumanSecurity

REGIONALTHREATS

MiddleEastandNorthAfrica*Iraq*Syria*IslamicStateofIraqandtheLevant*Iran*Libya*Yemen*Lebanon*Egypt*Tunisia*Europe*Turkey*KeyPartners*RussiaandEurasia*Russia*Ukraine,Moldova,andBelarus*TheCaucasusandCentralAsia*EastAsia*China*NorthKorea*SouthAsia*Afghanistan*Pakistan*India*Sub-SaharanAfrica*WestAfrica*Sudan*SouthSudan*Nigeria*Somalia*Lord’sResistanceArmy*CentralAfricanRepublic*TheSahel*LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean*Cuba*CentralAmerica*Venezuela*Haiti

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GLOBALTHREATS

CYBER

StrategicAssessment

CyberthreatstoUSnationalandeconomicsecurityareincreasinginfrequency,scale,sophistication,andseverityofimpact.Therangesofcyberthreatactors,methodsofattack,targetedsystems,andvictimsarealsoexpanding.Overall,theunclassified

informationandcommunicationtechnology(ICT)networksthatsupportUSGovernment,military,commercial,andsocialactivitiesremainvulnerabletoespionageand/ordisruption.However,thelikelihoodofacatastrophicattackfromanyparticularactorisremoteatthistime.Ratherthana“CyberArmageddon”scenariothatdebilitatestheentireUSinfrastructure,weenvisionsomethingdifferent.Weforeseeanongoingseriesoflow-to-moderatelevelcyberattacksfromavarietyofsourcesovertime,whichwillimposecumulativecostsonUSeconomiccompetitivenessandnationalsecurity.

•Agrowingnumberofcomputerforensicstudiesbyindustryexpertsstronglysuggestthatseveralnations—includingIranandNorthKorea—haveundertakeroffensivecyberoperationsagainstprivatesectortargetstosupporttheireconomicandforeignpolicyobjectives,attimesconcurrentwithpoliticalcrises.

Risk.Despiteever-improvingnetworkdefenses,thediversepossibilitiesforremotehackingintrusions,supplychainoperationstoinsertcompromisedhardwareorsoftware,andmalevolentactivitiesbyhumaninsiderswillholdnearlyallICTsystemsatriskforyearstocome.Inshort,thecyberthreatcannotbeeliminated;rather,cyberriskmustbemanaged.Moreover,theriskcalculusemployedbysomeprivatesectorentitiesdoesnotadequatelyaccountforforeigncyberthreatsorthesystemicinterdependenciesbetweendifferentcriticalinfrastructuresectors.

Costs.During2014,wesawanincreaseinthescaleandscopeofreportingonmalevolentcyberactivitythatcanbemeasuredbytheamountofcorporatedatastolenordeleted,personallyidentifiableinformation(Pll)compromised,orremediationcostsincurredbyUSvictims.Forexample:

•Afterthe2012-13distributeddenialofservice(DDOS)attacksontheUSfinancialsector,JPMorganChase(JPMorgan)announcedplansforannualcybersecurityexpendituresofS250millionbytheendof2014.Afterthecompanysufferedahackingintrusionin2014,JPMorgan’sCEOsaidhewouldprobablydoubleJPMorgan’sannualcomputersecuritybudgetwithinthenextfiveyears.

•The2014databreachatHomeDepotexposedinformationfrom56millioncredit/debitcardsand53millioncustomeremailaddresses.HomeDepotestimated:hecostofthebreachtobe$62million.

•In2014,unauthorizedcomputerintrusionsweredetectedonthenetworksoftheOfficeofPersonnelManagement(OPM)aswellasitscontractors,USInvestigationsServices(USIS)andKeyPointGovernmentSolutions.ThetwocontractorswereinvolvedinprocessingsensitivePIIrelatedtonationalsecurityclearancesforFederalGovernmentemployees.

•InAugust2014,theUScompany,CommunityHealthSystems,informedtheSecuritiesandExchangeCommissionthatitbelievedhackers“originatingfromChina”hadstolenPllon4.5millionindividuals.

Attribution.AlthoughcyberoperatorscaninfiltrateordisrupttargetedICTnetworks,mostcannolongerassumethattheiractivitieswillremainundetected.Norcantheyassumethatifdetected,theywillbeabletoconcealtheiridentities.Governmentalandprivatesectorsecurityprofessionalshavemadesignificantadvancesindetectingandattributingcyberintrusions.

•InMay2014,theUSDepartmentofJusticeindictedfiveofficersfromChina’sPeoples’LiberationArmyonchargesofhackingUScompanies.

•InDecember2014,computersecurityexpertsreportedthatmembersofanIranianorganizationwereresponsibleforcomputeroperationstargetingUSmilitary,transportation,publicutility,andothercriticalinfrastructurenetworks.

Deterrence.Numerousactorsremainundeterredfromconductingeconomiccyberespionageorperpetratingcyberattacks.Theabsenceofuniversallyacceptedandenforceablenormsofbehaviorincyberspacehascontributedtothissituation.Themotivationtoconductcyberattacksandcyberespionagewillprobablyremainstrongbecauseoftherelativeeaseoftheseoperationsandthegainstheybringtotheperpetrators.Theresultisacyberenvironmentinwhichmultipleactorscontinuetotesttheiradversaries’technicalcapabilities,politicalresolve,andthresholds.Themutedresponsebymostvictimstocyberattackshascreatedapermissiveenvironmentinwhichlow-levelattackscanbeusedasacoercivetoolshortofwar,withrelativelylowriskofretaliationAdditionally,evenwhenacyberattackcanbeattributedtoaspecificactor,theforensicattributionoftenrequiresasignificantamountoftimetocomplete.Longdelaysbetweenthecyberattackanddeterminationofattributionlikewisereinforceapermissiveenvironment.

ThreatActors

Politicallymotivatedcyberattacksarenowagrowingreality,andforeignactorsarereconnoiteringanddevelopingaccesstoUScriticalinfrastructuresystems,whichnightbequicklyexploitedfordisruptionifanadversary’sintentbecamehostile.Inaddition,thoseconductingcyberespionagearetargetingUSgovernment,military,andcommercialnetworksonadailybasis.Thesethreatscomefromarangeofactors,including:(1)nationstateswithhighlysophisticatedcyberprograms(suchasRussiaorChina),(2)nationswithlessertechnicalcapabilitiesbutpossiblymoredisruptiveintent(suchasIranorNorthKorea),(3)profit-motivatedcriminals,and(4)ideologicallymotivatedhackersorextremists.Distinguishingbetweenstateandnon-stateactorswithinthesamecountryisoftendifficult—especiallywhenthosevariedactorsactivelycollaborate,tacitlycooperate,condonecriminalactivitythatonlyharmsforeignvictims,orutilizesimilarcybertools.

Russia.Russia’sMinistryofDefenseisestablishingitsowncybercommand,which—accordingtoseniorRussianmilitaryofficials—willberesponsibleforconductingoffensivecyberactivities,includingpropagandaoperationsandinsertingmalwareintoenemycommandandcontrolsystems.Russia’sarmedforcesarealsoestablishingaspecializedbranchforcomputernetworkoperations.

•ComputersecuritystudiesassertthatunspecifiedRussiancyberactorsaredevelopingmeanstoaccessindustrialcontrolsystems(ICS)remotely.Thesesystemsmanagecriticalinfrastructuressuchaselectricpowergrids,urbanmass-transitsystems,air-trafficcontrol,andoilandgasdistributionnetworks.TheseunspecifiedRussianactorshavesuccessfullycompromisedtheproductsupplychainsofthreeICSvendorssothatcustomersdownloadexploitativemalwaredirectlyfromthevendors’websitesalongwithroutinesoftwareupdates,accordingtoprivatesectorcybersecurityexperts.

China.ChineseeconomicespionageagainstUScompaniesremainsasignificantissue.The“advancedpersistentthreat”activitiescontinuedespitedetailedprivatesectorreports,publicindictments,andUSdemarches,accordingtoacomputersecuritystudy.Chinaisanadvancedcyberactor;however,Chinesehackersoftenuselesssophisticatedcybertoolstoaccesstargets.ImprovedcyberdefenseswouldrequirehackerstousemoresophisticatedskillsandmakeChina’seconomicespionagemorecostlyanddifficulttoconduct.

Iran.Iranverylikelyvaluesitscyberprogramasoneofmanytoolsforcarryingoutasymmetricbutproportionalretaliationagainstpoliticalfoes,aswellasasophisticatedmeansofcollectingintelligence.Iranianactorshavebeenimplicatedinthe2012-13DDOSattacksagainstUSfinancialinstitutionsandintheFebruary2014cyberattackontheLasVegasSandscasinocompany.

NorthKorea.NorthKoreaisanotherstateactorthatusesitscybercapabilitiesforpoliticalobjectives.TheNorthKoreanGovernmentwasresponsiblefortheNovember2014cyberattackonSonyPicturesEntertainment(SPE),whichstolecorporateinformationandintroducedharddriveerasingmalwareintothecompany’snetworkinfrastructure,accordingtotheFBI.ThisattackcoincidedwiththeplannedreleaseofaSPEfeaturefilmsatirethatdepictedtheplannedassassinationoftheNorthKoreanpresident.

Terrorists.Terroristgroupswillcontinuetoexperimentwithhacking,whichcouldserveasthefoundationfordevelopingmoreadvancedcapabilities.Terroristsympathizerswillprobablyconductlow-levelcyberattacksonbehalfofterroristgroupsandattractattentionofthemedia,whichmightexaggeratethecapabilitiesandthreatposedbytheseactors.

IntegrityofInformation

Mostofthepublicdiscussionregardingcyberthreatshasfocusedontheconfidentialityandavailabilityofinformation;cyberespionageunderminesconfidentiality,whereasdenial-of-serviceoperationsanddata-deletionattacksundermineavailability.Inthefuture,however,*/emightalsoseemorecyberoperationsthatwillchangeormanipulateelectronicinformationinordertocompromiseitsintegrity(i.e.accuracyandreliability)insteadofdeletingitordisruptingaccesstoit.Decisionmakingbyseniorgovernmentofficials(civilianandmilitary),corporateexecutives,investors,orotherswillbeimpairediftheycannottrusttheinformationtheyarereceiving.

•Successfulcyberoperationstargetingtheintegrityofinformationwouldneedtoovercomeanyinstitutionalizedchecksandbalancesdesignedtopreventthemanipulationofdata,forexample,marketmonitoringandclearingfunctionsinthefinancialsector.

COUNTERINTELLIGENCE

WeassessthattheleadingstateintelligencethreatstoUSinterestsin2015willcontinuetobeRussiaandChina,basedontheircapabilities,intent,andbroadoperationalscopes.OtherstatesinSouthAsia,theNearEast,andEastAsiawillposeincreasinglysophisticatedlocalandregionalintelligencethreatstoUSinterests.Forexample,Iran’sintelligenceandsecurityservicescontinuetoviewtheUnitedStatesasaprimarythreatandhavestatedpubliclythattheymonitorandcounterUSactivitiesintheregion.

PenetratingtheUSnationaldecisionmakingapparatusandIntelligenceCommunitywillremainprimaryobjectivesforforeignintelligenceentities.Additionally,thetargetingofnationalsecurityinformationandproprietaryinformationfromUScompaniesandresearchinstitutionsdealingwithdefense,energy,finance,dual-usetechnology,andotherareaswillbeapersistentthreattoUSinterests.

Non-stateentities,includingtransnationalorganizedcriminalsandterrorists,willcontinuetoemployhuman,technical,andcyberintelligencecapabilitiesthatpresentasignificantcounterintelligencechallenge.Likestateintelligenceservices,thesenon-stateentitiesrecruitsourcesandperformphysicalandtechnicalsurveillancetofacilitatetheirillegalactivitiesandavoiddetectionandcapture.

TheinternationalizationofcriticalUSsupplychainsandserviceinfrastructure,includingfortheICT,civilinfrastructure,andnationalsecuritysectors,increasesthepotentialforsubversion.Thisthreatincludesindividuals,smallgroupsof“hacktivists,”commercialfirms,andstateintelligenceservices.

TrustedinsiderswhodisclosesensitiveUSGovernmentinformationwithoutauthorizationwillremainasignificantthreatin2015.Thetechnicalsophisticationandavailabilityofinformationtechnologythatcanbeusedfornefariouspurposesexacerbatesthisthreat.

TERRORISM

SunniviolentextremistsaregainingmomentumandthenumberofSunniviolentextremistgroups,members,andsafehavensisgreaterthanatanyotherpointinhistory.ThesegroupschallengelocalandregionalgovernanceandthreatenUSallies,partners,andinterests.ThethreattokeyUSalliesandpartnerswillprobablyincrease,buttheextentoftheincreasewilldependonthelevelofsuccessthatSunniviolentextremistsachieveinseizingandholdingterritorywhetherornotattacksonlocalregimesandcallsforretaliationagainsttheWestareacceptedbytheirkeyaudiences,andthedurabilityoftheUS-ledcoalitioninIraqandSyria.

SunniviolentextremistshavetakenadvantageoffragileorunstableMuslim-majoritycountriestomaketerritorialadvances,seeninSyriaandIraq,andwillprobablycontinuetodoso.Theyalsocontributetoregimeinstabilityandinternalconflictbyengaginginhighlevelsofviolence.Mostwillbeunabletoseizeandholdterritoryonalargescale,however,aslongaslocal,regional,andinternationalsupportandresourcesareavailableanddedicatedtohaltingtheirprogress.TheincreaseinthenumberofSunniviolentextremistgroupsalsowillprobablybebalancedbyalackofcohesionandauthoritativeleadership.AlthoughtheJanuary2015attacksagainstCharlieHebdoinParisisareminderofthethreattotheWest,mostgroupsplaceahigherpriorityonlocalconcernsthanonatackingtheso-calledfarenemy—theUnitedStatesandtheWest—asadvocatedbycoreal-Qa’ida.

Differencesinideologyandtacticswillfostercompetitionamongsomeofthesegroups,particularlyifaunifyingfigureorgroupdoesnotemerge.Insomecases,groups—evenifhostiletoeachother—willallyagainstcommonenemies.Forexample,someSunniviolentextremistswillprobablygainsupportfromlike-mindedinsurgentoranti-regimegroupsorwithindisaffectedordisenfranchisedcommunitiesbecausetheyshare

thegoalofradicalregimechange.

Althoughmosthomegrownviolentextremists(HVEs)willprobablycontinuetoaspiretotraveloverseas,particularlytoSyriaandIraq,theywillprobablyremainthemostlikelySunniviolentextremistthreattotheUShomelandbecauseoftheirimmediateanddirectaccess.SamemighthavebeeninspiredbycallsbytheIslamicStateofIraqandtheLevant(ISIL)inlateSeptemberforindividualjihadistsintheWesttoretaliateforUS-ledairstrikesonISIL.Attacksbyloneactorsareamongthemostdifficulttowarnaboutbecausetheyofferfewornosignatures.

IfISILweretosubstantiallyincreasethepriorityitplacesonattackingtheWestratherthanfightingtomaintainandexpandterritorialcontrol,thenthegroup’saccesstoradicalizedWesternerswhohavefoughtinSyriaandIraqwouldprovideapoolofoperativeswhopotentiallyhaveaccesstotheUnitedStatesandotherWesterncountries.Sincetheconflictbeganin2011,morethan20,000foreignfighters—atleast3,400ofwhomareWesterners—havegonetoSyriafrommorethan90countries.

WEAPONSOFMASSDESTRUCTIONANDPROLIFERATION

Nation-states’effortstodeveloporacquireweaponsofmassdestruction(WMD),theirdeliverysystems,ortheirunderlyingtechnologiesconstituteamajorthreattothesecurityoftheUnitedStates,itsdeployedtroops,andallies.SyrianregimeuseofchemicalweaponsagainsttheoppositionfurtherdemonstratesthatthethreatofWMDisreal.Thetimewhenonlyafewstateshadaccesstothemostdangeroustechnologiesispast.Biologicalandchemicalmaterialsandtechnologies,almostalwaysdual-use,moveeasilyintheglobalizedeconomy,asdopersonnelwiththescientificexpertisetodesignandusethem.Thelatestdiscoveriesinthelifesciencesalsodiffuserapidlyaroundtheglobe.

IranPreservingNuclearWeaponsOption

WecontinuetoassessthatIran’soverarchingstrategicgoalsofenhancingitssecurity,prestige,andregionalinfluencehaveledittopursuecapabilitiestomeetitsciviliangoalsandgiveittheabilitytobuildmissile-deliverablenuclearweapons,ifitchoosestodoso.WedonotknowwhetherIranwilleventuallydecidetobuildnuclearweapons.

WealsocontinuetoassessthatIrandoesnotfaceanyinsurmountabletechnicalbarrierstoproducinganuclearweapon,makingIran’spoliticalwillthecentralissue.However,IranianimplementationoftheJointPlanofAction(JPOA)hasatleasttemporarilyinhibitedfurtherprogressinitsuraniumenrichmentandplutoniumproductioncapabilitiesandeffectivelyeliminatedIran’sstockpileof20percentenricheduranium.TheagreementhasalsoenhancedthetransparencyofIran’snuclearactivities,mainlythroughimprovedInternationalAtomicEnergyAgency(IAEA)accessandearlierwarningofanyefforttomakematerialfornuclearweaponsusingitssafeguardedfacilities.

WejudgethatTehranwouldchooseballisticmissilesasitspreferredmethodofdeliveringnuclearweapons,ifitbuildsthem.Iran’sballisticmissilesareinherentlycapableofdeliveringWMD,andTehranalreadyhasthelargestinventoryofballisticmissilesintheMiddleEast.Iran’sprogressonspacelaunchvehicles—alongwithits

desiretodetertheUnitedStatesanditsallies—providesTehranwiththemeansandmotivationtodeveloplonger-rangemissiles,includingintercontinentalballisticmissiles(ICBMs).

NorthKoreaDevelopingWMD-ApplicableCapabilities

NorthKorea’snuclearweaponsandmissileprogramsposeaseriousthreattotheUnitedStatesandtothesecurityenvironmentinEastAsia.NorthKorea’sexportofballisticmissilesandassociatedmaterialstoseveralcountries,includingIranandSyria,anditsassistance?toSyria’sconstructionofanuclearreactor,destroyedin2007,illustrateitswillingnesstoproliferatedangeroustechnologies.

In2013,followingNorthKorea’sthirdnucleartest,Pyongyangannounceditsintentionto“refurbishandrestart”itsnuclearfacilities,toincludetheuraniumenrichmentfacilityatYongbyon,andtorestartitsgraphite-moderatedplutoniumproductionreactorthatwasshutdownin2007.WeassessthatNorthKoreahasfollowedthroughonitsannouncementbyexpandingitsYongbyonenrichmentfacilityandrestartingthereactor.

NorthKoreahasalsoexpandedthesizeandsophisticationofitsballisticmissileforces,rangingfromclose-rangeballisticmissilestoICBMs,whilecontinuingtoconducttestlaunches.In2014,NorthKorealaunchedanunprecedentednumberofballisticmissiles.

Pyongyangiscommittedtodevelopingalong-range,nuclear-armedmissilethatiscapableofposingadirectthreattotheUnitedStatesandhaspubliclydisplayedits<N08road-mobileICBMtwice.WeassessthatNorthKoreahasalreadytakeninitialstepstowardfieldingthissystem,althoughthesystemhasnotbeenflight-tested.

Becauseofdeficienciesintheirconventionalmilitaryforces,NorthKoreanleadersarefocusedondevelopingmissileandWMDcapabilities,particularlybuildingnuclearweapons.AlthoughNorthKoreanstatemediaregularlycarriesofficialstatementsonNorthKorea’sjustificationforbuildingnuclearweaponsandthreateningtousethemasadefensiveorretaliatorymeasure,wedonotknowthedetailsofPyongyang’snucleardoctrineoremploymentconcepts.Wehavelongassessedthat,inPyongyang’sview,itsnuclearcapabilitiesareintendedfordeterrence,internationalprestige,andcoercivediplomacy.

China’sExpandingNuclearForces

ThePeople’sLiberationArmy’s(PLA’s)SecondArtilleryForcecontinuestomodernizeitsnuclearmissileforcebyaddingmoresurvivableroad-mobilesystemsandenhancingitssilo-basedsystems.ThisnewgenerationofmissilesisintendedtoensuretheviabilityofChina’sstrategicdeterrentbyprovidingasecondstrikecapability.Inaddition,thePLANavycontinuestodeveloptheJL-2submarine-launchedballisticmissile(SLBM)andmightproduceadditionalJIN-classnuclear-poweredballisticmissilesubmarines.TheJIN-classsubmarines,armedwithJL-2SLBMs,willgivethePLANavyitsfirstlong-range,sea-basednuclearcapability.WeassessthattheNavywillsoonconductitsfirstnucleardeterrencepatrols.

Russia’sNewIntermediate-RangeCruiseMissile

RussiahasdevelopedanewcruisemissilethattheUnitedStateshasdeclaredtobe

inviolationoftheIntermediate-RangeNuclearForces(INF)Treaty.In2013,SergeiIvanov,aseniorRussianadministrationofficial,commentedinaninterviewhowtheworldhadchangedsincethetimetheINFTreatywassigned1987andnotedthatRussiawas“developingappropriateweaponssystems”inlightoftheproliferationofintermediate-andshorter-rangeballisticmissiletechnologiesaroundtheworld.Similarly,asfarbackas2007,IvanovpubliclyannouncedthatRussiahadtestedaground-launchedcruisemissileforitsIskanderweaponsystem,whoserangecompliedwiththeINFTreaty“fornow.”ThedevelopmentofacruisemissilethatisinconsistentwithINF,combinedwiththesestatementsaboutINF,callsintoquestionRussia’scommitmenttothistreaty.

WMDSecurityinSyria

InJune2014,Syria’sdeclaredCWstockpilewasremovedfordestructionbytheinternationalcommunity.ThemosthazardouschemicalagentsweredestroyedaboardtheMVCAPERAYasofAugust2014.TheUnitedStatesanditsalliescontinuetoworkcloselywiththeOrganizationfortheProhibitionofChemicalWeapons(OPCW)toverifythecompletenessandaccuracyofSyria’sChemicalWeaponsConvention(CWC)declaration.WejudgethatSyria,despitesigningthetreaty,hasusedchemicalsasameansofwarfaresinceaccessiontotheCWCin2013.Furthermore,theOPCWcontinuestoinvestigateallegationsofchlorineuseinSyria.

SPACEANDCOUNTERSPACE

ThreatstoUSspacesystemsandserviceswillincreaseduring2015andbeyondaspotentialadversariespursuedisruptiveanddestructivecounterspacecapabilities.ChineseandRussianmilitaryleadersunderstandtheuniqueinformationadvantagesaffordedbyspacesystemsandservicesandaredevelopingcapabilitiestodenyaccessinaconflict.Chinesemilitarywritingshighlighttheneedtointerferewith,damage,anddestroyreconnaissance,navigationandcommunicationsatellites.Chinahassatellitejammingcapabilitiesandispursuingantisatellitesystems.InJuly2014,Chinaconductedanondestructiveantisatellitemissiletest.Chinaconductedapreviousdestructivetestofthesystemin2007,whichcreatedlong-livedspacedebris.Russia’s2010MilitaryDoctrineemphasizesspacedefenseasavitalcomponentofitsnationaldefense.RussianleadersopenlyassertthattheRussianarmedforceshaveantisatelliteweaponsandconductantisatelliteresearch.Russiahassatellitejammersandispursuingantisatellitesystems.

TRANSNATIONALORGANIZEDCRIME

TransnationalOrganizedCrime(TOC)isaglobal,persistentthreattoourcommunitiesathomeandourinterestsabroad.Savvy,profit-drivencriminalnetworkstrafficindrugs,persons,wildlife,andweapons;corrodesecurityandgovernance;underminelegitimateeconomicactivityandtheruleoflaw;costeconomiesimportantrevenue;andundercutUSdevelopmentefforts.

DrugTrafficking

DrugtraffickingwillremainamajorTOCthreattotheUnitedStates.MexicoisthelargestforeignproducerofUS-boundmarijuana,methamphetamines,andheroin,andtheconduitfortheoverwhelmingmajorityofUS-boundcocainefromSouthAmerica.ThedrugtradealsounderminesUSinterestsabroad,erodingstabilityinpartsofAfricaandLatinAmerica;Afghanistanaccountsfor80percentoftheworld’sopiumproduction.

WeakCentralAmericanstateswillcontinuetobetheprimarytransitareaforthemajorityofUS-boundcocaine.TheCaribbeanisbecominganincreasinglyimportantsecondarytransitareaforUS-andEuropean-boundcocaine.In2013,theworld’scapacitytoproduceheroinreachedthesecondhighestlevelinnearly20years,increasingthelikelihoodthatthedrugwillremainaccessibleandinexpensiveinconsumermarketsintheUnitedStates,whereheroin-relateddeathshavesurgedsince2007.Newpsychoactivesubstances(NPS),includingsyntheticcannabinoidsandsyntheticcathinones,poseanemergingandrapidlygrowingglobalpublichealththreat.Since2009,USlawenforcementofficialshaveencounteredmorethan240syntheticcompounds.Worldwide,348newpsychoactivesubstanceshadbeenidentified,exceedingthenumberof234illicitsubstancesunderinternationalcontrols.

CriminalsProfitingfromGlobalInstability

Transnationalcriminalorganizationswillcontinuetoexploitopportunitiesinongoingconflictstodestabilizesocieties,economies,andgovernance.Regionalunrest,populationdisplacements,endemiccorruption,andpoliticalturmoilwillprovideopeningsthatcriminalswillexploitforprofitandtoimprovetheirstandingrelativetootherpowerbrokers.

Corruption

Corruptionfacilitatestransnationalorganizedcrimeandviceversa.Bothphenomenaexacerbateotherthreatstolocal,regional,andinternationalsecurity.Corruptionexistsatsomelevelinallcountries;however,thesymbioticrelationshipbetweengovernmentofficialsandTOCnetworksisparticularlyperniciousinsomecountries.OneexampleisRussia,wherethenexusamongorganizedcrime,stateactors,andbusinessblursthedistinctionbetweenstatepolicyandprivategain.

HumanTrafficking

Humantraffickingremainsbothahumanrightsconcernandachallengetointernationalsecurity.Traffickinginpersonshasbecomealucrativesourceofrevenue-estimatedtoproducetensofbillionsofdollarsannually.Humantraffickersleveragecorruptofficials,porousborders,andlaxenforcementtoplytheirillicittrade.Thisexploitationofhumanlivesforprofitcontinuestooccurineverycountryintheworld-underminingtheruleoflawandcorrodinglegitimateinstitutionsofgovernmentandcommerce.

WildlifeTrafficking

Illicittradeinwildlife,timber,andmarineresourcesendangerstheenvironment,threatensruleoflawandbordersecurityinfragileregions,anddestabilizescommunitiesthatdependonwildlifeforbiodiversityandecotourism.IncreaseddemandforivoryandrhinohorninAsiahastriggeredunprecedentedincreasesinpoachinginAfrica.Criminalelements,oftenincollusionwithcorruptgovernmentofficialsorsecurityforces,areinvolvedinpoachingandmovementofivoryandrhinohornacrossAfrica.PoachingpresentssignificantsecuritychallengesformilitariesandpoliceforcesinAfricannations,whichoftenareoutgunnedbypoachersandtheirallies.Illegal,unreported,andunregulatedfishingthreatensfoodsecurityandthepreservationofmarineresources.Itoftenoccursconcurrentlywithforcedlaborinthefishingindustry.

TheftofCulturalProperties,Artifacts,andAntiquities

Althoughthetheftandtraffickingofculturalheritageandartaretraditionsasoldastheculturestheyrepresent,transnationalorganizedcriminalsareacquiring,transporting,andsellingvaluableculturalpropertyandartmoreswiftly,easily,andstealthily.Thesecriminalsoperateonaglobalscalewithoutregardforlaws,borders,nationalitiesorthesignificanceofthetreasurestheysmuggle.

ECONOMICSANDNATURALRESOURCES

Theglobaleconomycontinuestoadjusttoandrecoverfromtheglobalfinancialcrisisthatbeganin2008;economicgrowthsincethatperiodislaggingbehindthatofthepreviousdecade.Resumptionofsustainedgrowthhasbeenelusiveformanyoftheworld’slargesteconomies,particularlyinEuropeancountriesandJapan.Theprospectofdiminishedorforestalledrecoveriesinthesedevelopedeconomiesaswellasdisappointinggrowthinkeydevelopingcountrieshascontributedtoareadjustmentofenergyandcommoditymarkets.

EnergyandCommodities

Energypricesexperiencedsharpdeclinesduringthesecondhalfof2014.Diminishingglobalgrowthprospects,OPEC’sdecisiontomaintainitsoutputlevels,rapidincreasesinunconventionaloilproductioninCanadaandtheUnitedStates,andthepartialresumptionofsomepreviouslysidelinedoutputinLibyaandelsewherehelpeddrivedownpricesbymorethanhalfsinceJuly,thefirstsubstantialdeclinesince2008-09.Lower-pricedoilandgaswillgiveaboosttotheglobaleconomy,withbenefitsenjoyedbyimportersmorethanoutweighingthecoststoexporters.

MacroeconomicStability

Extraordinarymonetarypolicyor“quantitativeeasing”hashelpedrevivegrowthintheUnitedStatessincetheglobalfinancialcrisis.However,thisrecoveryandtheprospectofhigherreturnsintheUnitedStateswillprobablycontinuetodrawinvestmentcapitalfromtherestoftheworld,whereweakgrowthhasleftinterestratesdepressed.

Globaloutputimprovedslightlyin2014butcontinuedtolagthegrowthratesseenbefore2008.Since2008,theworldwideGDPgrowthratehasaveragedabout3.2percent,wellbelowits20-year,pre-GFCaverageof3.9percent.Lookingahead,prospectsforslowingeconomicgrowthinEuropeandChinadonotbodewellfortheglobaleconomicenvironment.

Economicgrowthhasbeeninconsistentamongdevelopedanddevelopingeconomiesalike.Outsideofthelargesteconomies—theUnitedStates,theEU,andChina—economicgrowthlargelystagnatedworldwidein2014,slowingto2.1percent.Asaresult,thedifferenceingrowthratesofdevelopingcountriesanddevelopedcountriescontinuedtonarrow—to2.6percentagepoints.Thisgap,smallestinmorethanadecade,underscoresthecontinuedweaknessinemergingmarkets,whosepreviouslymuch-higheraveragegrowthrateshelpeddriveglobalgrowth.

HUMANSECURITY

CriticalTrendsConverging

Severaltrendsareconvergingthatwillprobablyincreasethefrequencyofshockstohumansecurityin2015.Emerginginfectiousdiseasesanddeficienciesininternationalstatepreparednesstoaddressthemremainathreat,exemplifiedbytheepidemicspreadoftheEbolavirusinWestAfrica.Extremesinweathercombinedwithpublicpoliciesthataffectfoodandwatersupplieswillprobablyexacerbatehumanitariancrises.ManystatesandinternationalinstitutionswilllooktotheUnitedStatesin2015forleadershiptoaddresshumansecurityissues,particularlyenvironmentandglobalhealth,aswellasthosecausedbypoororabusivegovernance.

Globaltrendsingovernancearenegativeandportendgrowinginstability.Poorandabusivegovernancethreatensthesecurityandrightsofindividualsandcivilsocietyinmanycountriesthroughouttheworld.Theoverallriskformassatrocities—driveninpartbyincreasingsocialmobilization,violentconflict,andadiminishingqualityofgovernance—isgrowing.Incidentsofreligiouspersecutionalsoareontherise.LegalrestrictionsonNGOsandthepress,particularlythosethatexposegovernmentshortcomingsorlobbyforreforms,willprobablycontinue.

InfectiousDiseaseContinuesToThreatenHumanSecurityWorldwide

Infectiousdiseasesareamongtheforemosthealthsecuritythreats.Amorecrowdedandinterconnectedworldisincreasingtheopportunitiesforhumanandanimaldiseasestoemergeandspreadglobally.ThishasbeendemonstratedbytheemergenceofEbolainWestAfricaonanunprecedentedscale.Inaddition,militaryconflictsanddisplacementofpopulationswithlossofbasicinfrastructurecanleadtospreadofdisease.Climatechangecanalsoleadtochangesinthedistributionofvectorsfordiseases.

•TheEbolaoutbreak,whichbeganinlate2013inaremoteareaofGuinea,quicklyspreadintoneighboringLiberiaandSierraLeoneandthenintodenseurbantransportationhubs,whereitbeganspreadingoutofcontrol.Gapsindiseasesurveillanceandreporting,limitedhealthcareresources,andotherfactorscontributedtotheoutpacingoftheinternationalcommunity’sresponseinWestAfrica.IsolatedEbolacasesappearedoutsideofthemostaffectedcountries—notablyinSpainandtheUnitedStates—andthediseasewillalmostcertainlycontinuein2015tothreatenregionaleconomicstability,security,andgovernance.

•Antimicrobialdrugresistanceisincreasinglythreateningglobalhealthsecurity.Seventypercentofknownbacteriahaveacquiredresistancetoatleastoneantibioticthatisusedtotreatinfections,threateningareturntothepre-antibioticera.Multidrug-resistanttuberculosishasemergedinChina,India,Russia,andelsewhere.Duringthenexttwentyyearsantimicrobialdrug-resistantpathogenswillprobablycontinuetoincreaseinnumberandgeographicscope,worseninghealthoutcomes,strainingpublichealthbudgets,andharmingUSintereststhroughouttheworld.

•MERS,anovelvirusfromthesamefamilyasSARS,emergedin2012inSaudiArabia.IsolatedcasesmigratedtoSoutheastAsia,Europe,andtheUnitedStates.Casesofhighlypathogenicinfluenzaarealsocontinuingtoappearindifferentregionsoftheworld.HIV/AIDSandmalaria,althoughtrendingdownward,remainglobalhealthpriorities.In2013,2.1millionpeoplewerenewlyinfectedwithHIVand584,000werekilledbymalaria,accordingtotheWorldHealthOrganization.Diarrhealdiseaseslikecholera

continuetotakethelivesof800,000childrenannually.

•Theworld’spopulationremainsvulnerabletoinfectiousdiseasesbecauseanticipatingwhichpathogenmightspreadfromanimalstohumansorifahumanviruswilltakeamorevirulentformisnearlyimpossible.Forexample,ifahighlypathogenicavianinfluenzaviruslikeH7N9weretobecomeeasilytransmissibleamonghumans,theoutcomecouldbefarmoredisruptivethanthegreatinfluenzapandemicof1918.Itcouldleadtoglobaleconomiclosses,theunseatingofgovernments,anddisturbanceofgeopoliticalalliances.

ExtremeWeatherExacerbatingRiskstoGlobalFoodandWaterSecurity

Extremeweather,climatechange,andpublicpoliciesthataffectfoodandwatersupplieswillprobablycreateorexacerbatehumanitariancrisesandinstabilityrisks.Globallyaveragedsurfacetemperatureroseapproximately0.8degreesCelsius(about1.4degreesFahrenheit)from1951to2014;2014waswarmestonearthsincerecordkeepingbegan.Thisriseintemperaturehasprobablycausedanincreaseintheintensityandfrequencyofbothheavyprecipitationandprolongedheatwavesandhaschangedthespreadofcertaindiseases.Thistrendwillprobablycontinue.Demographicanddevelopmenttrendsthatconcentratepeopleincities—oftenalongcoasts—willcompoundandamplifytheimpactofextremeweatherandclimatechangeonpopulations.Countrieswhosekeysystems-food,water,energy,shelter,transportation,andmedical-areresilientwillbebetterabletoavoidsignificanteconomicandhumanlossesfromextremeweather.

•Globalfoodsupplieswillprobablybeadequatefor2015butarebecomingincreasinglyfragileinAfrica,theMiddleEast,andSouthAsia.TherisksofworseningfoodinsecurityinregionsofstrategicimportancetotheUnitedStateswillincreasebecauseofthreatstolocalfoodavailability,lowerpurchasingpower,andcounterproductivegovernmentpolicies.Priceshockswillresultifextremeweatherordiseasepatternssignificantlyreducefoodproductioninmultipleareasoftheworld,especiallyinkeyexportingcountries.

•Riskstofreshwatersupplies—duetoshortages,poorquality,floods,andclimatechange—aregrowing.Theseproblemshindertheabilityofcountriestoproducefoodandgenerateenergy,potentiallyunderminingglobalfoodmarketsandhobblingeconomicgrowth.Combinedwithdemographicandeconomicdevelopmentpressures,suchproblemswillparticularlyhindertheeffortsofNorthAfrica,theMiddleEast,andSouthAsiatocopewiththeirwaterproblems.Lackofadequatewatermightbeadestabilizingfactorincountriesthatlackthemanagementmechanisms,financialresources,politicalwill,ortechnicalabilitytosolvetheirinternalwaterproblems.

•Somestatesareheavilydependentonriverwatercontrolledbyupstreamnations.Whenupstreamwaterinfrastructuredevelopmentthreatensdownstreamaccesstowater,statesmightattempttoexertpressureontheirneighborstopreservetheirwaterinterests.Suchpressuremightbeappliedininternationalforumsandalsoincludespressinginvestors,nongovernmentalorganizations,anddonorcountriestosupportorhaltwaterinfrastructureprojects.Somecountrieswillalmostcertainlyconstructandsupportmajorwaterprojects.Overthelongerterm,wealthierdevelopingcountrieswillalsoprobablyfaceincreasingwater-relatedsocialdisruptions.Developingcountries,however,are

almostcertainlycapableofaddressingwaterproblemswithoutriskofstatefailure.Terroristorganizationsmightalsoincreasinglyseektocontrolordegradewaterinfrastructuretogainrevenueorinfluencepopulations.

IncreaseinGlobalInstabilityRisk

Globalpoliticalinstabilityriskswillremainhighin2015andbeyond.Massatrocities,sectarianorreligiousviolence,andcurtailedNGOactivitieswillallcontinuetoincreasetheserisks.Decliningeconomicconditionsarecontributingtoriskofinstabilityorinternalconflict.

•Roughlyhalfoftheworld’scountriesnotalreadyexperiencingorrecoveringfrominstabilityareinthe“mostrisk”and“significantrisk”categoriesforregime-threateningandviolentinstabilitythrough2015.

•Overallinternationalwillandcapabilitytopreventormitigatemassatrocitieswillprobablydiminishin2015owingtoreductionsingovernmentbudgetsandspending.

•In2014,abouttwodozencountriesincreasedrestrictionsonNGOs.Approximatelyanotherdozenalsoplantodosoin2015,accordingtotheInternationalCenterforNonprofitLaw.

REGIONALTHREATS

MIDDLEEASTANDNORTHAFRICA

Iraq

OversixmonthsintothecoalitioncampaignagainsttheIslamicStateofIraqandtheLevant(ISIL),thefrontlinesagainstthegroupinIraqhavelargelystabilized;nosideisabletomustertheresourcesnecessarytoattainitsterritorialambitions.TheIraqiSecurityForces(ISF),Peshmerga,Shiamilitants,andafewtribalallies—bolsteredbyairandartillerystrikes,weapons,andadvicefromtheUnitedStates,ArabandWesternallies,andIran—havepreventedISILfromgaininglargeswathsofadditionalterritory.

SectarianconflictinmixedShia-SunniareasinandaroundBaghdadthatcanundermineprogressagainstISILisgrowing.ISFandShiamilitantsareconductingacampaignofretributionkillingsandforceddisplacementofSunniciviliansinseveralareascontestedbySunnimilitants.

Sincetakingoffice,PrimeMinisteral-Abadihastakenstepstochangetheethno-sectariantoneinBaghdad,includingengagingSunnitriballeadersandreachingatentativeoilagreementwiththeKurdistanRegionalGovernment.However,theethnosectariannatureofsecurityoperationsandpersistentdistrustamongIraqileadersriskunderminingAbadi’snascentpoliticalprogress.

Syria

TheSyrianregimemadeconsistentgainsin2014inpartsofwesternSyriathatitconsiderskey,retakinggroundineasternDamascus,Horns,andLatakia;itisclosetosurroundingAleppocity.Theregimewillrequireyearstoreassertsignificantcontroloverthecountry.

•Thebulkoftheoppositioninthenorthisfightingonthreefronts—againstthe

regime,theal-Qa’ida-affiliatedNusrahFront,andISIL.TheoppositioninthesouthhasmadesteadygainsinareasthattheregimehasnotmadeapriorityandwhereISILhasonlyalimitedpresence.

ThestabilityofSyria’sneighborsisatriskduetothecountry’sprolongedconflict,whichwillstrainregionaleconomiesforcedtoabsorbmillionsofrefugees.TheconflictwillalsoencourageregionalsectarianismandcontinuetoincubateextremistgroupsthatwilluseSyriaasalaunchingpadforattacksacrosstheMiddleEast.

•TheSyrianconflictisalsoputtinghugeeconomicandresourcestrainsoncountriesintheregionprimarilyduetothenearly4millionrefugeesfleeingtheconflict.Mostoftherefugeeshavefledtoneighboringstates.Morethan620,000areinJordan;almost1.6millionareinTurkey;almost1.2millionareinLebanon;andmorethan240,000areinIraq.Thesestateshaverequestedadditionalinternationalsupporttomanagetheinflux.

IslamicStateofIraqandtheLevant

Inanattempttostrengthenitsself-declaredcaliphate,ISILprobablyplanstoconductoperationsagainstregionalallies,Westernfacilities,andpersonnelintheMiddleEast;ithasalreadyexecutedWesternandJapanesehostagesaswellasaJordanianAirForcepilot.ISILleaderAbuBakral-Baghdadioutlinedthegroup’sambitiousexternalgoals,includingtheexpansionofthecaliphateintotheArabianPeninsulaandNorthAfricaandattacksagainstWestern,regional,andShiainterests,accordingtoapublicstatementinNovember2014.

•InSeptember2014,ISILpubliclycalledonallSunnistoretaliateforUS-ledairstrikesinIraqandSyria,advocatingthetargetingoflawenforcementandothergovernmentofficialsusinganymeansavailable.IndividualsfromEuropeandNorthAmericawhohavetrainedandfoughtwithISILcanreturnhomeandconductattackseitherontheirownoronISIL’sbehalf.TheFrenchcitizenarrestedinMay2014forashootingataJewishmuseuminBrusselshadreturnedfromfighting,probablywithISILinSyria,andwaswrappedinaflagwithISILinscriptionswhenhewasapprehended.WedonotknowwhetherheactedatISIL’sbehest.

Iran

TheIslamicRepublicofIranisanongoingthreattoUSnationalinterestsbecauseofitssupporttotheAsadregimeinSyria,promulgationofanti-Israelipolicies,developmentofadvancedmilitarycapabilities,andpursuitofitsnuclearprogram.PresidentRuhani—alongstandingmemberoftheregimeestablishment—willnotdepartfromIran’snationalsecurityobjectivesofprotectingtheregimeandenhancingIranianinfluenceabroad,evenwhileattemptingdifferentapproachestoachievethesegoals.HerequiresSupremeLeaderKhamenei’ssupporttocontinueengagementwiththeWest,moderateforeignpolicy,andeasesocialrestrictionswithinIran.

IranpossessesasubstantialinventoryoftheaterballisticmissilescapableofreachingasfarassomeareasofsoutheasternEurope.Tehranisdevelopingincreasinglysophisticatedmissilesandimprovingtherangeandaccuracyofitsothermissilesystems.Iranisalsoacquiringadvancednavalandaerospacecapabilities,includingnavalmines,smallbutcapablesubmarines,coastaldefensecruisemissilebatteries,attackcraft,anti-

shipmissiles,andarmedunmannedaerialvehicles.

InIraqandSyria,Iranseekstopreservefriendlygovernments,protectShiainterests,defeatSunniextremists,andmarginalizeUSinfluence.TheriseofISILhaspromptedIrantodevotemoreresourcestobluntingSunniextremistadvancesthatthreatenIran’sregionalalliesandinterests.Iran’ssecurityserviceshaveprovidedrobustmilitarysupporttoBaghdadandDamascus,includingarms,advisers,funding,anddirectcombatsupport.BothconflictshaveallowedIrantogainvaluableon-the-groundexperienceincounterinsurgencyoperations.Iranianassistance;hasbeeninstrumentalinexpandingthecapabilitiesofShiamilitantsinIraq.TheISILthreathasalsoreducedIraqiresistancetointegratingthosemilitants,withIranianhelp,intotheIraqiSecurityForces,butIranhasunevencontroloverthesegroups.

DespiteIran’sintentionstodampensectarianism,buildresponsivepartners,anddeescalatetensionswithSaudiArabia,Iranianleaders—particularlywithinthesecurityservices—arepursuingpolicieswithnegativesecondaryconsequencesforregionalstabilityandpotentiallyforIran.Iran’sactionstoprotectandempowerShiacommunitiesarefuelinggrowingfearsandsectarianresponses.

Libya

WeassessthatLibyawillremainvolatilein2015.PoliticalpolarizationandbroadeningmilitiaviolencehavepushedLibyaintoacivilwar.NearlyfouryearssincetheevolutionthattoppledQadhafi,rivalgovernmentshaveemerged,leavingthecountrywithnoclearlegitimatepoliticalauthorityorcrediblesecurityforces.MilitiasalignedwiththerivalgovernmentscontinuetoviefordominanceinTripoliandBenghazi.

•InBenghazi,fightingthatbeganinMay2014isongoingbetweenforcesalignedwithformerGeneralKhalifaHater’sOperationDignityforcesandAnsaral-Sharia(AAS)andalliedgroups.InTripoli,theLibyaDawnmilitiashavedriventheirZintanimilitiarivalsoutofthecity,butfightingcontinuessouthwestofTripoli.

•UNeffortstofacilitateanegotiatedresolutionbetweenLibya’srivalgovernmentshaveshownlimitedmomentumbutasofearlyFebruary2015havenotmadetangibleprogresstowardaunitygovernmentoradurablecease-fire.

Extremistsandterroristsfromal-Qa’ida-affiliatedandalliedgroupsareusingLibya’spermissivesecurityenvironmentasasafehaventoplotattacks,includingagainstWesterninterestsinLibyaandtheregion.ISILalsohasdeclaredthecountrypartofitscaliphate,andISIL-alignedextremistsaretryingtoinstituteshariainpartsofthecountry.

Yemen

TheHuthishaveemergedasthemostpowerfulgroupinYemensincetakingSanaalastfallandarepoisedtodominatethepoliticalprocessafterPresident’sHadi’sresignationandtheirdissolutionofthegovernment.Thegroup,however,continuestofaceresistanceasitexpandstowardthesouthandeast.SouthernYemenileadershavebeenalarmedbytheHuthi’sconsolidationofcontrolinSanaaandarepoisedtoopposefurtherHuthiexpansionsouth.Al-Qa’idaintheArabianPeninsula(AQAP)hastakenadvantageofmanySunnitribes’oppositiontoHuthiexpansiontogainrecruitstofightagainsttheHuthis.

Chronicandsevereeconomicandhumanitarianproblems,exacerbatedbyrepeatedpipelineattacksandtheHuthis’pushtoreinstatecostlyfuelsubsidies,willcontinuetoundercutgovernmentcontrolandlegitimacy.YemenwillprobablycontinuepressuringdonornationstomakegoodonaidpledgeswhilenegotiatingwithtribesoutsideofSanaa’scontroltokeepoilexportsflowing.

HuthiascendencyinYemenhasincreasedIran’sinfluenceaswell.

Lebanon

LebanoncontinuestostrugglewithspilloverfromtheSyrianconflict,includingperiodicsectarianviolence:terroristattacks:andtheeconomic,political,andsectarianstrainassociatedwithrefugees.

•Lebanonfacesgrowingthreatsfromterroristgroups,includingtheal-NusrahFrontandISIL.SunniextremistsaretryingtoestablishnetworksinLebanonandnaveincreasedattacksagainstLebanesearmyandHizballahpositionsalongtheLebanese-Syrianborder.LebanonpotentiallyfacesaprotractedconflictinnorthernandeasternpartsofthecountryfromextremistgroupsseekingtoseizeLebaneseterritory,supplies,andhostages.

•ThepresenceofoveronemillionmostlySunniSyrianrefugeesinLebanon,whichhasapopulationofonly4.1million,hassignificantlyalteredLebanon’ssectariandemographicsandisacontinuingburdenontheLebaneseeconomy.InOctober2014,thecabinetfurthertightenedentryrestrictionstoallowonly“extremehumanitariancases”intothecountry.Arrivalshavedeclined75to90percentsinceAugust,mostrecentlydueinparttothenewrestrictions.

Egypt

EgyptianofficialshaveannouncedthatlegislativeelectionswillstartinMarch2015andthatvotingwillbestaggeredinphasesoversevenweeks.EgyptfacesapersistentthreatofterroristandmilitantviolencethatisdirectedprimarilyatthestatesecurityforcesbothintheSinaiPeninsulaandmainlandEgypt.Sincemid-2013,Sinai-basedterroristgroupAnsarBaytal-Maqdis(ABM)—affiliatedsinceNovemberwithISIL—hasclaimedresponsibilityforsomeofthemostsophisticatedanddeadlyattacksagainstEgyptiansecurityforcesindecades.

Tunisia

Tunisiahastransitionedtoapermanentdemocraticgovernment.BejiCaidEssebsiwaselectedPresidentinthepresidentialrunoffelectioninDecember2014.InJanuary2015,Essebsi’spoliticalpartyNidaaTounesselectedformerInteriorMinisterEssidtobecomePrimeMinister.

•InearlyFebruary,PrimeMinisterHabibEssidformedabroad-basedcoalitiongovernment,ledbyNidaaTounes.whichincludedIslamistpartyal-Nahdaandseveralsmallerparties.ThenewgovernmentalmostcertainlyrecognizesTunisia’seconomicandsecuritychallenges.

Thepermanentgovernmentwillinheritoneofthehighestyouthunemploymentratesintheworld,ahighbudgetdeficit,anddecreasingForeignDirectInvestmentand

balanceofpayments.Itwillstruggletomeetpublicexpectationsforswifteconomicprogress.

EUROPE

Turkey

TurkeywillremainacriticalpartnerinawiderangeofUSsecuritypolicypriorities,includinganti-ISILandbroadercounterterrorismefforts.JointUS-TurkisheffortstosteminstabilityinIraqandSyriasharethesamegoalsbutemploydifferentapproaches,increasingtensioninthebilateralrelationship.TurkishPresidentErdoganandleadersoftherulingJusticeandDevelopmentParty(AKP)arefocusedonthegeneralelections,whicharescheduledtobeheldinJune2015

•Ankarawillbemoreinclinedtosupporttheanti-ISILcoalitionifthecoalitionagreestofocuseffortsagainstAsad,includingsettingupaninternationallyguaranteedbufferzoneinSyria.

•TurkeyisconcernedthattheKurdishDemocraticUnion(PYD)—agroupitbelievesisaffiliatedwiththeKurdistanPeople’sCongress(KGK/formerPKK)—willgaininternationallegitimacy.

KeyPartners

TheTransatlanticpartnershipremainsvitalastheUnitedState:,workswithEuropeanleaderstomaintainaconcertedresponsetoRussia’sactioninUkraineandtoothersecuritychallengesontheEuropeancontinentandbeyond.Europeansareworkingtoaddressfiscalchallengesandencourageeconomicgrowthwhilemaintainingandstrengtheningfinancialgovernance.

•TheTransatlanticTradeandInvestmentPartnershiphasthepotentialtohelpgenerateeconomicgrowthforboththeUnitedStatesandEurope,reinforcethetransatlanticlink,andaddresspublicconcernsaboutdataprivacyandfoodandhealthstandards.

RUSSIAANDEURASIA

Russia

TheUkrainiancrisishasprofoundlyaffectedRussia’srelationswiththeWestandwillhavefar-reachingeffectsonRussia’sdomesticpolitics,economicdevelopment,andforeignpolicy.

PresidentVladimirPutinenjoyssomeofhishighestdomesticapprovalratingsinallhisyearsinoffice.AnintensestatemediapropagandacampaignhasstokedRussians’perceptionthatPutinrightedahistoricalwronginorchestratingRussia’sseizureofCrimeaandreassertedRussia’sgreat-powerinterestsagainstahostileWest.

Atthesametime,thecrisisinUkrainehasexacerbatedpreexistingdomesticproblemsinRussia.ThefallofformerUkrainianPresidentViktorYanukovych’sgovernmentinFebruary2014hasalmostcertainlydeepenedtheKremlin’sconcernsoverthedangersofmassdemonstrationsandhasintensifiedtheKremlin’seffortstodefusewhatitseesaspotentialcatalystsforprotestsinRussia.

Russia’seconomywasindeclineevenbeforethecrisisbegan.Growthstagnatedin2014duetodecliningoilprices,largecapitaloutflows,andasharplydecliningruble.Inaddition,economicsanctionscutoffsomeRussianfirmsfromWesternfinancing.ThesefactorshaveincreasedtherealandperceivedrisksofdoingbusinessinRussia,raisedtheoverallcostofinternationalcredit,andwillprobablydriveRussiaintorecessionin2015.

Moscowispushingforgreaterregionalintegration,pressingneighboringstatestofollowtheexampleofBelarusandKazakhstanandjointheMoscow-ledEurasianEconomicUnion.TheKremlinisalsocultivatingitsrelationshipwithChina,seekingtomaintainsomeinfluenceinEuropeandemphasizingmultilateralforumstocounterwhatMoscowviewsasUSunilateralism.ThesetrendswerealreadypresentinRussiandiplomacy,buttheUkrainiancrisishasalmostcertainlylentemphasistothesepolicies.

Russiaistakinginformationwarfaretoanewlevel,workingtofananti-USandanti-WesternsentimentbothwithinRussiaandglobally.Russianstate-controlledmediapublishfalseandmisleadinginformationinanefforttodiscredittheWest,undercutconsensusonRussia,andbuildsympathyforRussianpositions.

InUkraine,Russiahasdemonstrateditswillingnesstocovertlyusemilitaryandparamilitaryforcesinaneighboringstate—adevelopmentthatraisesanxietiesinstatesalongRussia’speriphery.FutureRussiandeploymentsandforceposturechangeswillprobablybedesignedtomaximizetheirdiplomaticandpublicimpactinEurope.Russianmilitaryofficialshaveannouncedplanstoconductmore“out-of-area”airandnavaldeployments,toincludegreateractivityintheCaribbeanandMediterraneanSeas.

Moscowhasmadeheadwayinmodernizingitsnuclearandconventionalforces,improvingitstrainingandjointoperationalproficiency,modernizingitsmilitarydoctrinetointegratenewmethodsofwarfare,anddevelopinglong-range,precision-strikecapabilities.Despiteitseconomicdifficulties,Moscowiscommittedtomodernizingitsmilitary.

Ukraine,Moldova,andBelarus

UkrainefacesadauntingarrayofproblemsafternearlyayearofconflictwithRussiaanditsproxiesineasternUkraine.Atthesametime,thecrisishasfosteredasenseofnationalidentityandunity.PublicopinionhasshiftedheavilyinfavorofpursuingintegrationwiththeEUwhileviewsofRussiahavebecomesharplynegative.Moreover,forthefirsttime,anarrowmajorityofthepopulationsupportsNATOmembership.

Negotiationsoverthestatusoftheseparatist-heldterritoryineasternUkrainewillalmostcertainlybedifficultandprotracted.Russiahassuppliedsubstantialquantitiesofheavyweaponstostrengthentheseparatists’forcesandcovertlysupportsthemwithitsowntroops,bothwithinUkraineandfromacrosstheborder.Moreimportantly,Moscowhasdemonstratedthatitiswillingtointervenedirectlytopreventtheseparatistsfrombeingdefeatedonthebattlefield.Furtherfightingislikelyin2015.

Ukraine’sdireeconomicsituationpresentsnolessachallengetoKyivthantheconflictintheeast.Ukrainewillbehighlydependentonsubstantialoutsidefinancialassistanceforyearstocome.

InMoldova,thenarrowvictoryofpro-EUpartiesinthelatestparliamentary

electionssuggeststhatMoldovawillpushaheadwithitsEuropeanintegrationagenda.However,Chisinaustillfacesnumerouschallengesinseekingtoovercomeeconomicdifficulties,entrenchedcorruption,andMoscow’sdispleasurewithMoldova’srejectionofcloserintegrationwithRussia.Anyprogressonresolvingthepoliticalstatusoftheethnic-RussianseparatistregionofTransnistriaisunlikely.

On1January2015,Belarusbecame,alongwithKazakhstan,afoundingmemberoftheEurasianEconomicUnion(EEU),aregionalintegrationprojectthatMoscoweventuallyplanstotransformintoaEurasianUnionasacounterparttotheEU.PresidentLukashenkohastreadcarefullyinregardtotheUkrainiancrisis,decliningtorecognizeRussia’sseizureofCrimea,butagreeingneverthelesstodeepenmilitarycooperationwithMoscow.

TheCaucasusandCentralAsia

InGeorgia,progressisunlikelyonthecoredisputesbetweenTbilisiandMoscow,includingGeorgia’sNATOaspirationsandthestatusoftheoccupiedterritoriesofAbkhaziaandSouthOssetia.TensionswithRussiawillremainhigh,andweassessthatMoscowwillpressTbilisitoabandoncloserEUandNATOties.

ArmeniaandAzerbaijansawanincreasein2014ofceasefireviolationsandarecordnumberofcasualtiesalongtheLineofContact(LOC),whichseparatesethnicArmenianandAzerbaijaniforcesneartheseparatistregionofNagorno-Karabakh.Theincreasedviolencehighlightshowthecloseproximityofopposingmilitaryforcescontinuestoposeariskofmiscalculationandunintendedescalation.Prospectsforapeacefulresolutionintheforeseeablefuturearedim.

CentralAsianstatesremainconcernedaboutregionalinstabilityinlightofareducedCoalitionpresenceinAfghanistan.AlthoughtheyhavelongbeenalarmedabouttheactivitiesofCentralAsianmilitantgroupsoperatinginAfghanistanandPakistan,theyareincreasinglyworriedaboutthethreatposedbythereturnofthesmallbutgrowingnumberoftheirnationalswhohavetraveledtoSyriatojoinviolentIslamistextremistgroups.Onthewhole,however,theCentralAsianstateswillprobablyfacemoreacuterisksofinstabilityin2015frominternalissuessuchasunclearpoliticalsuccessionplans,weakeconomies,ethnictensions,andpoliticalrepression—anyofwhichcouldproduceacrisiswithlittlewarning.

EASTASIA

China

Chinawillcontinuetopursueanactiveforeignpolicy—especiallywithintheAsiaPacific—bolsteredbyincreasingcapabilitiesanditsfirmstanceonEastandSouthChinaSeaterritorialdisputeswithrivalclaimants.Thechancesforsustainedtensionswillpersistbeesusecompetingclaimantswillprobablypursueactions—includingenergyexploration—thatothersperceiveasinfringingontheirsovereignty.Chinawillprobablyseektoexpanditseconomicroleandoutreachintheregion,pursuingbroaderacceptanceofitseconomicinitiatives,includingtheAsiaInfrastructureInvestmentBank.AlthoughChinaremainsfocusedonregionalissues,itwillseekagreatervoiceonmajorinternationalissuesandinmakingnewinternationalrules.

Notwithstandingthisexternalagenda,Chineseleaderswillfocusprimarilyonaddressingdomesticconcerns.TheChineseCommunistPartyleadershipunderPresidentXiJinpingannouncedanambitiousagendaoflegalreformsinlate2014thatbuiltonitspreviousagendaofambitiouseconomicreforms—allaimedatimprovinggovernmentefficiencyandaccountabilityandstrengtheningthecontroloftheCommunistParty.Thedifficultyofimplementingthesereformsandbureaucraticresistancetothemcreatethepossibilityofrisinginternalfrictionsastheagendamovesforward.BeijingwillalsoremainconcernedaboutthepotentialfordomesticunrestorterroristactsinXinjiangandTibet,whichmightleadtorenewedhumanrightsabuses.Followingmonthsofpro-democracyprotestsinlate2014,ChineseleaderswillmonitorcloselypoliticaldevelopmentsinHongKongforsignsofinstability.

NorthKorea

ThreeyearsaftertakingthehelmofNorthKorea,KimJongUnhasfurthersolidifiedhispositionasunitaryleaderandfinaldecisionauthoritythroughpurges,executions,andleadershipshuffles.Kimwasabsentfrompublicviewfor40daysinlate2014,leadingtowidespreadforeignmediaspeculationabouthishealthandtheregime’sstability.ThefocusonKim’shealth’sareminderthattheregime’sstabilitymighthingeonKim’spersonalstatus.Kimhasnoclearlyidentifiedsuccessorandisinclinedtopreventtheemergenceofaclear“numbertwo”whocouldconsolidatepowerinhisabsence.Kimandtheregimehavepubliclyemphasizedhisfocusonimprovingthecountry’stroubledeconomyandthelivelihoodoftheNorthKoreanpeoplewhilemaintainingthetenetsofacommandeconomy.Hehascodifiedthisapproachviahisdual-trackpolicyofeconomicdevelopmentandadvancementofnuclearweapons.(InformationonNorthKorea’snuclearweaponsprogramandintentionscanbefoundaboveinthesectiononWMDandProliferation.)Despiterenewedeffortsatdiplomaticoutreach,Kimcontinuestochallengetheinternationalcommunitywithprovocativeandthreateningbehaviorinpursuitofhisgoals,asprominentlydemonstratedintheNovember2014cyberattackonSony.

SOUTHASIA

Afghanistan

PresidentAshrafGhaniandChiefExecutiveOfficerAbdullahAbdullahsecuredParliament’sapprovaloftheBilateralSecurityAgreementandNATOStatusofForcesAgreementpriortotheNATOMinisterialinDecember2014.Despitethe12Januaryannouncementofthercabinetnominees,GhaniandAbdullahhaveyettowinlegislativeapprovalforallofthosenominatedorresolvethefinaldetailsoftheirsharedpoliticalpowersderivedfromtheirnationalunitygovernmentagreement.Resolvingtheseissueswillrequirecontinuedinternationalengagementandsupport.

InternationalfinancialaidremainsthemostimportantexternaldeterminantoftheKabulgovernment’sstrength.However,thesloweconomicrecoveryfromtheglobalfinancialcrisishascreatedfiscalchallengesformanyofAfghanistan’sprimarydonors,particularlyinEuropeandJapan.Theseeconomichurdlesathomehavereduceddonors’enthusiasmandcapacitytoprovideAfghanistanadditionallong-termfinancialaidabovelevelspledgedthrough2017andreaffirmedin2014attheLondonConferenceandNATOWalesSummit.

TheAfghanNationalSecurityForces(ANSF)preventedtheTalibanfromachievingadecisivemilitaryadvantagein2014.TheANSF,however,willrequirecontinuedinternationalsecuritysectorsupportandfundingtostaveoffanincreasinglyaggressiveTalibaninsurgencythrough2015.TheANSF,withthehelpofanti-Talibanpowerbrokersandinternationalfunding,willprobablymaintaincontrolofmostmajorpopulationcenters.However,theforceswillmostlikelycedecontrolofsomeruralareas.Withoutinternationalfunding,theANSFwillprobablynotremainacohesiveorviableforce.

TheTalibanwillprobablyremainlargelycohesiveundertheleadershipofMullahOmarandsustainitscountrywidecampaigntotaketerritoryinoutlyingareasandsteadilyreassertinfluenceoversignificantportionsofthePashtuncountryside,positioningitselfforgreaterterritorialgainsin2015.ReliantonAfghanistan’sopiatetradeasakeydomesticsourceoffunding,theTalibanwillbeabletoexploitincreasingopiumpoppycultivationandpotentialheroinproductionforreadyrevenue.TheTalibanhaspubliclytoutedtheendofthemissionoftheInternationalSecurityandAssistanceForce(ISAF)andcoalitiondrawdownasasignofitsinevitablevictory,reinforcingitscommitmenttoreturningtopower.

Pakistan

Pakistanwillprobablycontinuetoimplementsomeeconomicreformsandtargetanti-Pakistanmilitantsandtheiractivities.

•PrimeMinisterSharif’spromisestoaddresseconomic,energy,andsecurityissuesalmostcertainlyfellshortofhighpublicexpectations.Furthermore,hisstandingweakenedwhenhereportedlyaskedtheArmytostepinandhandleoppositionprotestsinlate2014.

•WeassessthatIslamabadwillapprovesomeadditionaleconomicreformsin2015.Undertakingfutureeconomicandenergyreformswillbemorechallengingandwillprobablyfacegreaterpoliticalandpopularopposition.

•ThePakistanGovernmentwillprobablyfocusin2015ondiminishingthecapabilitiesoftheTehrik-i-Taliban(TTP),whichclaimedtheattackonaschoolinDecember-leavingover100childrendead.

WejudgethatPakistanwillaimtoestablishpositiverapportwiththenewAfghanGovernment,butlongstandingdistrustandunresolveddisputesbetweenthecountrieswillpreventsubstantialprogress.

•Pakistan’sprovisionofsafehaventoLashkar-eTayyibawillprobablycontinuetobeakeyirritantinrelationswithIndia.

India

PrimeMinisterNarendraModi’sdecisiveleadershipstyle,combinedwiththe2014electionofanabsolutemajorityinthelowerhouseofParliamentofhisBharatiyaJanataParty(BJP),willenablemoredecisiveIndiandecisionmakingondomesticandforeignpolicy.AlthoughIndiahasalong-standingpositionthatitmaintainanindependentpolicy,ModiwillprobablyseektoworkmorecloselywiththeUnitedStatesonsecurity,terrorism,andeconomicissues.

IndiawantstomaintainastablepeacewithPakistanbutviewsPakistanasadirectterrorismthreatandaregionalsourceofinstability.

IndiaisconcernedaboutthestabilityofAfghanistananditsownpresencetherefollowingthedrawdownofinternationalforcesandislookingforoptionstoblunttheinfluenceofPakistani-supportedgroupsandensurethatAfghanistandoesnotreverttoahavenforanti-Indianmilitants.

IndianleaderswillalmostcertainlypursuestrongereconomictieswithChinathatsupportthegovernment’seconomicagendaofclosingthetradegapandattractinginvestmentininfrastructure.NewDelhi’sconcernoverperceivedChineseaggressivenessalonghedisputedborderandintheIndianOceanisprobablygrowinginlightofborderincidentsandthevisitofaChinesesubmarinetoSriLankain2014.

SUB-SAHARANAFRICA

Sub-SaharanAfricawillfacepoliticalandsecuritychallengesin2015includingnumerouspresidentialelections,ongoinginsurgencies,andcontinuingintrastateconflict.TheongoingEbolavirusepidemicwillundoubtedlychallengebothWesternAfricannationsandthelargerinternationalcommunityintryingtocontainthevirus’spreadandcountereconomicdegradationinfragileWestAfricannations.StabilityinSouthSudan,Nigeria,Somalia,andtheCentralAfricanRepublic(CAR)willalmostcertainlyremaintenuousthroughout2015.

WestAfrica

TheEbolaviruswillpersistthroughoutWestAfricain2015,posingasignificantthreattotheeconomicviabilityandconsequentlythestabilityoftheregion.ThecontinueddrainonresourcesandunprecedentedneedformedicalpersonnelwillstraingovernmentsandeconomiesinLiberia,SierraLeone,andGuinea—thethreeworst-affectedcountries.Sustainedfinancialandmaterielassistancefromtheinternationalcommunity,continueddomesticsupportforthegovernments’anti-Ebolaefforts,andcommunityengagementtochangelocalmisperceptionsaboutthedisease’scause,treatmentoptions,andburialpracticeswillremaincriticaltoslowingtheepidemic.Economicgrowthintheoutbreakzonehasalreadyslowedandwillcontinuetoslowduring2015,strainingbudgetsandprobablyincreasingdependenceoninternationaldonoraid.Aprolongedorsevereoutbreakthatcontinueswellinto2015mightpromptGuineatodelayPresidentialelections,increasingthepossibilityofelection-relatedviolence.MilitaryandsecurityservicesinthekeyoutbreakcountrieswillprobablysuccessfullycontainisolatedunrestandlocalhostilitytowardEbola-responsepersonnel.

Sudan

Khartoumwillalmostcertainlyconfrontarangeofchallenges,includingcontinuedinsurgenciesintheperiphery,publicdissatisfactionovercontinuedeconomicdecline,andpotentialprotestssurroundingitsApril2015elections.SudaneseeconomicconditionssinceSouthSudan’sindependencein2011continuetodeteriorate.Suchconditions,includingrisingpricesonstaplegoods,fueloppositiontotheSudaneseGovernment.

SouthSudan

ClashesbetweenoppositionforcesandtheSudanPeople’sLiberationArmy

(SPLA)willalmostcertainlyincreaseduringthedryseason—whichlastsfromNovembertoApril—underminingongoingpeacetalksandputtingtenuoushumanitariangainsatrisk.PeacetalksbetweenJubaandoppositionelementswillprobablyremainslow-going.

Nigeria

InstabilityinNigeriawillprobablyincreasein2015,givencontentiouselectionsdelayeduntilMarchandApril,plummetingoilrevenue,andthemilitary’sinabilitytocheckBokoHaram’sascendancyinthenortheast.Theelectionwilloccasionviolence,withprospectsforprotestsinthemonthsfollowingtheelection.Inaddition,militantsmightremobilizeintheNigerDelaandattacktheoilindustry.BokoHaramwillprobablycontinuetosolidifycontroloveritsself-declaredIslamicstateinnortheasternNigeriaandexpanditsterrorcampaigninneighboringNigerianstates,Cameroon,Niger,andChad.Abuja’srelianceonoilexportsforrevenuewillalmostcertainlyensurethatNigeriaremainsvulnerabletofluctuationsintheglobaloilmarketin2015.Decliningoilpriceswillprobablysqueezegovernmentrevenuesanddraincurrencyreserves.Abuja’sovertaxedsecurityforceswillhaveelimitedabilitytoanticipateandpreemptthreats.

Somalia

InSomalia,al-ShabaabisconductingasymmetricattacksagainstgovernmentfacilitiesandWesterntargetsinandaroundMogadishu.ThecredibilityandeffectivenessoftheyoungSomaliGovernmentwillbefurtherthreatenedbypersistentpoliticalinfighting;ill-equippedgovernmentinstitutions;andpervasivetechnical,political,andadministrativeshortfalls.

Lord’sResistanceArmy

TheLord’sResistanceArmy(LRA),eveninitsweakenedstate,probablyhastheabilitytoregenerateifcounter-LRAoperationsarereduced.TheLRAcontinuestodisplaygreatagilityinitsgeographicareasofoperationandintheoperationalsecurityofitsactivities.

CentralAfricanRepublic

Despitethepresenceofinternationalpeacekeepingforces,theriskofcontinuedethno-religiousclashesbetweenChristiansandMuslimsthroughoutthecountry,includinginthecapital,remainshigh.

TheSahel

GovernmentsinAfrica’sSahelregion—particularlyChad,Niger,Mali,andMauritania—willremainatriskofterroristattacksandpossibleinternalconflict.Al-Qa’idaintheLandsoftheIslamicMaghreb(AQIM)andaffiliatedgroupsarecommittedtocontinuingtheirterroristactivityintheSahel,includingagainstWesterninterests.TheywillprobablyseektoincreasethefrequencyandscaleofattacksinnorthernMali.Sahelienmilitarieswillstruggletohandleawidearrayofsecuritythreats.

LATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEAN

Cuba

CubanPresidentRaulCastro’sfocuswillalmostcertainlybepreparingthecountry

fortheeventualendoftheCastroeraandmaintainingtightpoliticalcontrol.HeiscautiouslyimplementingeconomicandleadershipreformsandreleaseddozensofpoliticalprisonersinearlyJanuary.Cuba’sprincipalinterestinnormalizingrelationswiththeUnitedStatesisprobablylinkedtoitsrecognitionoftheneedtoeasediscontentoverdismallivingconditionsandpooreconomicprospects.TheslowrolloutofeconomicreformsandafallinnickeloutputcutGDPgrowthto1.2percentin2014.Crucialcomponentsoftheeconomicreformprogram—reducingthestateroleintheeconomyandopeningupafewopportunitiesforself-employment—willprobablyproducenumerous,short-termeconomicdislocationsbeforegraduallyincreasingproductivityandjobs.

Cuba’spopulationof11millionhasbeendecliningsinceabout2005becauseoffallingbirthratesandemigration.CubanmigrantarrivalsattheUSsouthwestborderrosefrom10,400inFY12to17,300inFY14.Maritimearrivalsandinterdictionswillprobablyincreasein2015becauseofrumorsthatifthetwocountriesnormalizerelations,theUnitedStateswouldchangeimmigrationpoliciesthatallowCubanswhoreachtheUnitedStatestoobtainstatus.

CentralAmerica

Weakinstitutions,pooreconomicprospects,andthegrowingstrengthofcriminalgangswillprobablylimittheabilityofthegovernmentsofCentralAmerica’snortherntier—ElSalvador,Guatemala,andHonduras—toimproveruleoflaw,jobopportunities,andcitizensecurity,whichwillprobablycontinuetofuelimmigrationtotheUnitedStatesin2015.Fracturedlegislatures,politicalchallenges,andentrenchedbusinessinterestswillprobablyslowagreementonraisingsomaofthelowesttaxcollectionratesintheworldoradoptingeconomicandsocialpoliciesthatwouldhelp-educethehighratesofpovertythatspurmigrationtotheUnitedStates.About25percentofElSalvador’spopulationhasemigratedduringthepasttwodecades,mostlytotheUnitedStates,becauseoflackofeconomicopportunitiesandwidespreadinsecurity.ElSalvador’seconomyhasexperiencedthelowesteconomicgrowthratesintheregionforeightconsecutiveyears.Guatemala’sweakfiscalpositionwillundermineeffortstoameliorateextremepoverty,particularlyinruralareas.About1.6millionGuatemalansresideintheUnitedStatesandsendabout$5.5billioninremittancesbackhomeeachyear.Honduras,oneofthehemisphere’spoorestcountries,isstrugglingtomakeheadwayagainstineffective,corruptinstitutions.Hondurashastheworld’shighestrateofhomicidespercapita,despitearepottedmodestdeclinein2014,andcriminalgangsareforciblyrecruitingyouthandextortingbusinessesandindividuals.

Venezuela

Likemostoil-exportingnations,Venezuelaisexperiencingtheeconomicconsequencesofpolicychoicesandthedeclineinglobaloilprices.Oilaccountsforabout95percentofVenezuelanexportearningsand45percentofgovernmentrevenue.Caracaswillfaceastrainedfiscalenvironmentin2015alongwithrisinginflationandshortagesofessentialgoods.

Legislativeelectionsareslatedtooccurbytheendof2015;voterswillbeconcernedaboutpublicsecurity,theeconomy,andpoliticalrights.PresidentNicolasMaduraappointedapresidentialcommissiontoreviewthecountry’spolicesystemand

recommendreformsafterthehigh-profilemurderofanationalassemblydeputyandaviolentlawenforcementconfrontationinOctober2014witharadical,armedgroupknownasacolectivo.

Haiti

PoliticaltensionsbetweenHaitianPresidentMartellyandhisopponentswillprobablyflareduring2015andmightunderminepreparationsforoverduelocalandparliamentaryelectionsaswellasforthevoteforanewpresidentinNovember2015.Haitiwillneedsubstantialtechnicalandfinancialsupportfromtheinternationalcommunitytoorganizeandholdelections.SomeviolentprotestsareprobableandmightbecomemoreintenseorwidespreadifpoliticalopponentsbelievethatelectoralpreparationsfavorMartelly’spartyorallies.

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Editor’sNote:Theworkofgovernmentagenciesincludedinthiscompilationisnotsubjecttocopyrightprotection.

Thecontentsofthedocumentsreproducedherearesolelytheresponsibilityoftheoriginatinggovernmentagency.Wemakenoclaims,promisesorguaranteesabouttheaccuracy,completeness,oradequacyofthecontents,anddisclaimliabilityforerrorsandomissions.Nofederalagencybearsanyresponsibilityforformattingorothererrors

containedtherein,andproceedsfromthesaledonotgotothegovernment.Ofcourse,nowarrantyofanykindisgivenwithrespecttothecontents.