foundations of research 1 facts, beliefs and the irrational cranach, tree of knowledge [of good and...

Foundations of Research

1 Facts, Beliefs and the Irrational

Cranach, Tree of Knowledge [of Good and Evil] (1472)

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2Facts & Beliefs

We saw earlier that facts – empirical observations – are the keystone of the scientific method …and of critical thinking.

What is a “fact”, and how does it differ from a belief or opinion?

Laws

Theories

Hypotheses

Facts


3How do we differentiate ‘facts’ from ‘beliefs’?

We have a responsibility to intervene in Syria & Iraq. Over 100,000 people have died in the Syrian conflict.

Each of us has an intrinsic purpose that we must discover.

The earth is about 4.5 billion years old.

Beliefor

Opinion

Empirical Statement or

FactHow do we

distinguish…from


4Facts & beliefs




These are empirical statements, that could be tested.


5




These are beliefs or value statements, not amenable to scientific study.

Facts & beliefs


6


Each of us has an intrinsic purpose that we must discover. The earth is about 4.5 billion years old.

How do we differentiate an assertion based on personal beliefs or values, versus an empirical statement? Is it possible to collect evidence to address the question one

way or another?• What would that evidence look like?• What would a testable hypothesis be?• Can this even be addressed empirically?

What actual evidence is there?

Facts & beliefs

We have established epidemiological methods to test this statement…

…and radiological and other methods to establish this fact.


7



We can, however, reframe a belief statement as a testable hypothesis.

What if we take: We have a responsibility to intervene in Syria & Iraq.

And reframe it as:

Our economy will improve if the Middle East is socially and economically stable.

This formulation is at least conceivably testable.

Facts & beliefs

These are inherently expressions of personal values or beliefs…No empirical evidence could test or refute them.


8



What empirical research could you do on this statement? How does a belief in intrinsic purpose affect behavior or health?

Who in society holds this belief…

How closely is this belief tied to religious observance…

So, even though an assertion of intrinsic purpose is not an empirical statement…

… taking a creative approach

(here thinking about the implications of a belief)

allows us to develop interesting empirical questions.

Facts & beliefs


9

All ideas have some merit and should be considered equally.

Here are some statements; think of whether you agree…

Most any idea is worthy of study. Scientific acceptance of ideas is not egalitarian;

Ideas that are coherent and have empirical support are better.

A = TrueB = I’m not sureC = False

Click image for a piece on belief and irrationality from http://www.nothingbychancecoaching.com

http://www.nothingbychancecoaching.com/belief-and-the-open-word/

http://www.nothingbychancecoaching.com/belief-and-the-open-word/


10Knowledge attitudes, 2

If a lot of people believe something there is probably something to that.

Science is not democratic; Evidence “wins”, not the majority of believers History is full of foolish or dangerous ideas were accepted

by many people, including scientists, until countered by empirical evidence.

However, social consensus does provide grounds for writing a strong hypothesis…




I can just sense when something is true or false.

Intuition is an important source of hypotheses or theories

Intuition describes your emotions, not necessarily the real world.

Emotionality & subjectivity are not scientific until they are empirically tested.




Everyone is biased, even scientists. Why shouldn’t I just believe what makes

sense to me?A = TrueB = I’m not sureC = False

Everyone does have biases Science is designed to not be person based –

Science is about methods, not people and their bias’ Scientific method specifically works to lessen personal bias.


13

Some ideas are “better” than others.

Science: core values

Is it logically coherent? Is it supported by evidence? Does it make sense with what

is already known?


14

Some ideas are “better” than others. Science is based on methods and evidence, not

people.

Objective methods are specifically designed to overcome our natural biases.

Core values


15

Some ideas are “better” than others. Science is based on methods and evidence, not people. Evidence from the natural world trumps

personal biases or beliefs.

Core values

Evidence from the “real world” has the final say.

Not OK to “Cherry pick” confirmatory or self-serving evidence.


16

Some ideas are “better” than others. Science is based on methods and evidence, not people. Evidence from the natural world trumps personal biases or

beliefs. Logic or rational thought are (generally) more

important than intuition or emotions.

Is it logically coherent? Is it supported by evidence? Does it make sense with what

is already known?

Core values


17

Distinguishing fact from belief or opinion is key to…. Critical or empirical thought generally;

The basic building blocks of science

How do you know? Is it possible to empirically test (or refute) your belief?

What would that test look like?

Facts are not social – just shared opinions – but empirical, grounded in the observable world. We can test the implications or consequences of a belief…

Some ideas are simply better than others. Science is anchored on evidence and objective methods, not

individual people or ideologies.

The values of science & empiricismSU

MM

ARY

Laws

Theories

Hypotheses

Facts


18

Science, anti-science, and magical thought.Why is it so difficult to “stick to the facts”?

Facts, Beliefs and the Irrational


19

Let’s talk about your beliefs.

How much to you believe in…

Why is it so difficult to take a scientific view?


20How much to you believe in…

ESP or Extrasensory Perception

A = I believe in thisB = I am not sureC = I do not believe in this

Shutterstock


21Beliefs, 2…

That houses can be haunted

A = I believe in thisB = I am not sureC = I do not believe in this

Shutterstock


22Beliefs, 3…

Have you ever been protected by an angel?

A = Yes B = I am not sureC = No

Shutterstock


23Are we rational?

Is American society “rational”?Are our beliefs generally scientific?

Irrational beliefs have actually increased in the U.S. in the 21st Century

For a great science and religion myth debunking blog go to Rosa Rubicondior

Shutterstock

http://rosarubicondior.blogspot.com/

http://rosarubicondior.blogspot.com/


24Are we rational?

According to Google, there are around 200,000 searches each month for the Loch Ness Monster.

These data are from an ongoing Google survey:


25Direct paranormal experiences among Americans

55% of Americans : "I was protected from harm by a guardian angel.“

Baylor University nationally representative survey of 1,721 respondents

Paranormal Experiences in the United StatesPercent that report the following experiences:

Used acupuncture or other forms of alternative medicine 28%

Consulted a horoscope 28%

Consulted a medium, fortune teller or psychic 13%

Had a dream that later came true 43%

Witnessed a UFO 17%

Thus, over half of us do not simply believe in angels, but that we have been directly affected by an angel…

Paranormal beliefs are fairly common in the U.S.:


26Beliefs…

About 50% of Americans believe in ESP or spiritual healing

Despite consistent failures to demonstrate it scientifically.

Click the image for a discussion of ESP research from PsychCentral.com.

Click here for an NYT discussion of a study that ostensibly found ESP to exist in college students.

http://psychcentral.com/

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/06/science/06esp.html

http://psychcentral.com/blog/archives/2012/01/05/history-of-psychology-cards-to-test-your-esp/

http://psychcentral.com/blog/archives/2012/01/05/history-of-psychology-cards-to-test-your-esp/


27Beliefs, 2…

37% of Americans believe in haunted houses;

16% are ‘not sure’.

% of people who believe in or not sure about haunted houses

% of people who accept that climate change is influenced by human activity.

All data from Gallup.com

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx


28Beliefs, 2…

% of people who believe in or not sure about haunted houses

% of people who accept that climate change is influenced by human activity.

All data from Gallup.com

Beliefs that cannot be empirically tested or supported

– such as hauntings – can be accepted by more people than

are scientific findings that affect us all.

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx


29Scientific views on evolution are slowly increasing

Most Americans who accept evolution endorse “Intelligent Design”.

Few Americans endorse a scientific view of the origins of species:

Biblical creation views are most common; A direct scientific perspective is uncommon.

Not natural selection.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/170822/believe-creationist-view-human-origins.aspx

http://www.gallup.com/poll/170822/believe-creationist-view-human-origins.aspx


30Ideology and acceptance of science

Acceptance of evolution varies substantially byreligion

http://www.pewforum.org/2013/12/30/publics-views-on-human-evolution/

More conservative faith communities are more likely to reject evolution in favor of a biblical perspective.





Acceptance of evolution varies substantially byand political affiliation.religion


Republicans’ rejection of evolution has actually increased over time…

Evolution has been lifted from the realm of facts and theories to become a cultural “wedge issue”.

Here belief is less about evidence than personal ideology.





Rejection of a basic scientific principle such as evolution is often not due to critical thought about the science itself…

…but because the concept becomes intertwined with other core values, such as religious doctrine.

The rejection of science often works this way, whether it be…

…anti-government ideology …conspiratorial belief systems …or other core values.


33Ideology & science: the MMR vaccine conspiracy theory.

Harris Interactive/HealthDay , 2011

Liberals also have “hallmark” unscientific beliefs; A single fraudulent study in the 1990s led to the belief that the MMR vaccine

causes autism. The science disputing this belief is as strong as that supporting evolution. Even now 48% of parents accept / are unsure about the vaccine autism link.

Celebrities Jenny McCarthy and Jim Carey at an anti-vaccination rally. Image: katiephd.com; click for a brief history of vaccines.

http://www.katiephd.com/blog/

http://www.katiephd.com/vaccination-a-short-history-and-a-new-prospect/


34Ideology & science: the MMR vaccine conspiracy theory.

Click here for a historical review of anti-vaccine movements.


causes autism. The science disputing this belief is as strong as that supporting evolution. Even now 48% of parents accept / are unsure about the vaccine autism link. Vaccine beliefs are spearheaded by liberal bloggers, celebrities, and

alternative medicine groups (many of which profit from the “controversy”).

Click here for a discussion of how media manipulation and simple fraud underlie the vaccine - autism “controversy”.

http://www.csicop.org/si/show/anti-vaccination_movement

http://www.nature.com/ni/journal/v9/n12/full/ni1208-1317.html


35John Steward / Samantha Bee: An outbreak of liberal idiocy

A recent study reported in Mother Jones found four different attempts to change anti-vaccine beliefs all failed• Emotion-based attempts did nothing

• Fact-based attempts actually backfired, and increased anti-vaccine beliefs.

Highly ideologically based beliefs can be almost completely resistant to contrary scientific evidence

Mother Jones article here.

Click for a funny / scary piece on irrational belief.

Everett Collection/Shutterstock

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/02/vaccine-denial-psychology-backfire-effect

http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/g1lev1/an-outbreak-of-liberal-idiocy


36


causes autism. The science disputing this belief is as strong as that supporting evolution. Still, even now only 48% of parents reject the vaccine autism link. Vaccine beliefs are spearheaded by liberal bloggers, celebrities, or alternative

medicine groups.

Anti-science and cultural ideology; Vaccines

Vaccination rates have decreased due to the vaccine “controversy”.

Harris Interactive/HealthDay , 2011

86% vaccination rate



37Anti-science and cultural ideology; Vaccines


Measles and Pertussis rates – and deaths – have skyrocketed due to vaccination rates going below the critical value of 95% for herd immunity.


Harris Interactive/HealthDay , 2011Data from Harris Interactive/Healthday, 2011



Non-scientific thought – that is, not based on clear thought or empirical evidence –

is relatively common… And can have serious consequences.



Non-scientific thought As with evolution, rejection of the science underlying

vaccine safety is tied in with a larger value system; living a “green” life Mistrust of the pharmaceutical industry.


40Why do we reject scientific explanations?

When they conflict with intuition or popular opinion. Scientific explanations are often abstract & difficult; intuition

is easier and “feels better”. Strong conformity pressure for popular opinion;

o We belong to a group by sharing its values and beliefs.It can be difficult to challenge a shared core value.

o Social groups can induce a “false consensus”; If most of our friends believe something we can not only be

swayed… …but assume the belief is widely shared.

o We may actually join social groups due to a shared, non-rational belief, e.g., UFO societies.



When they conflict with intuition or popular opinion. Scientific explanations are often abstract & difficult; intuition is easier and

“feels better”. Strong conformity pressure for popular opinion;

Misunderstanding of chance & coincidence; Spurious correlations

Both gun regulations & crime have decreased since 1980. Does that mean that more guns = lower crime? Areas with more guns actually have more crime. Nationally crime has lessened due to the end of the crack

epidemic, higher incarceration rates, and community policing. The ‘correlation’ between lessening regulations and crime

reduction is spurious, but… Requires we take a closer, skeptical look at the evidence Reflects the core values of some social groups


42

When they conflict with intuition or popular opinion. Scientific explanations often abstract & difficult; intuition is

easier and “feels better” Strong conformity pressure of popular opinion

Misunderstanding of chance & coincidence; Spurious correlations

When we see a correlation, it is easy for us to misinterpret the actual cause.

Things can appear to be correlated even in nonsense data

Spurious correlation.

The scientist yells “JUMP!” at the frog and the frog jumps one meter.Then he cuts off one of the frog’s legs, yells “JUMP!” and the frog jumps half a

meter.Then he cuts off another of the frog’s legs, yells “JUMP!” and the frog jumps a

fifth of a meter.Then he cuts off a third leg, yells “JUMP!” and the frog does not jump. He yells

“JUMP!” again, and the frog does not jump.“Aha!” he says. “I have my result!” So he carefully writes in his lab book: “When

three legs are removed, a frog becomes deaf.”


43

http://tylervigen.com/view_correlation?id=2948, 4/9/15

r = .87

EXA

MPL

E

This (obvious nonsense) correlation comes from searching through a huge data set to find variables that move the same way over time.

Looking at the graph it is difficult to not want to figure out how Miss America causes murder by steam (older Miss As are ‘hotter’?).

This is a basic perceptual fallacy; if the movement of B follows the movement of A, A must cause B.

Example of a (silly) spurious correlation.

http://tylervigen.com/view_correlation?id=2948



44Spurious correlations

r = .666

http://tylervigen.com/view_correlation?id=359, 4/9/15EXA

MPL

E

2 clear & readable links from Charlie Kufs’ Cats With Stats Blog:Correlations and CausalityHow to tell a good correlation

More nonsense…

Although it does support the hypothesis that Nicolas Cage is evil…

More weird correlations? Here.



https://statswithcats.wordpress.com/2015/01/01/how-to-tell-if-correlation-implies-causation/

https://statswithcats.wordpress.com/2010/11/28/secrets-of-good-correlations/

http://www.tylervigen.com/


453rd variables in spurious correlations

Spurious correlations Often we get tripped by intuitive rather than logical

interpretation

Shoe size and reading performance for elementaryschool children

Age: Older children have larger shoe sizes and readbetter.

Number of police officers and number of crimes(Glass & Hopkins, 1996)

Population density: In highly dense areas, there are morepolice officers and more crimes. Number of storks sighted and the

population of Oldenburg, Germany, over a six-year period (Box, Hunter, & Hunter, 1978)

Time: Both variables were increasing over time.

Correlation Cause

EXA

MPL

E

Age

Population density

Time


463rd variables in spurious correlationsEX

AM

PLE

Intuitively we may try to figure out how kids with bigger feet read better, or storks lead to more people…

These correlations are senseless unless we consider the underlying (3rd) variables that really are important.

It is common for a 3rd variable to actually cause both terms in the correlation.


47Interpreting correlations

From the correlation in this chart

What else could be going on?

Countries with the most fat & cancer tend to be wealthier, more urbanized and industrialized.

They may also show different patterns of exercise and prepared (“factory”) food consumption.

Do wealth and urbanization increase exposure to carcinogens other than fat? (The 3rd variable problem).

Even an “obvious” causal link can be questionable or incomplete if it relies on correlational data only.

FIGURE 3 | Association between fat intake and breast cancer.

From: Diet and cancer — the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. S. Bingham & E. Riboli, Nature Reviews Cancer 4, 206-215 (March 2004). doi:10.1038/nrc1298, http://www.nature.com/nrc/journal/v4/n3/fig_tab/nrc1298_F3.html

appears to cause cancer.fat

Total dietary fat intake (g day-1)

Age

-adj

uste

d de

ath

rate

per

100

,000

peo

pleThe chart makes this causal explanation

visually compelling…

http://www.nature.com/nrc/journal/v4/n3/fig_tab/nrc1298_F3.html








48

When they conflict with intuition or popular opinion. Scientific explanations are often abstract & difficult; intuition is

easier and “feels better”. Strong conformity pressure for popular opinion;

Misunderstanding of chance & coincidence; Spurious correlations High salience of single events

Anti-vaccine activists vividly describe individual children who developed autism symptoms after receiving vaccines.

Broader but less dramatic research shows vaccine administration to be unrelated to autism.

Autism can first occur at the age when vaccines are administered, making for ‘high drama’ case studies.

…Jenny McCarthy’s son has changed more attitudes than has a mountain of science showing her to be wrong….

Why do we reject scientific explanations


49

When they conflict with intuition or popular opinion. Scientific explanations are often abstract & difficult; intuition is

easier and “feels better”. Strong conformity pressure for popular opinion;

Misunderstanding of chance & coincidence; Spurious correlations High salience of single events

Uber, AirB&B and other ‘sharing economy’ services occasionally have a disaster, increasing fears that they can be dangerous.

In 2015 a guest was harmed by his Spanish AirB&B host. That day AirB&B had 800,000 guests around the world… If an event like that happens once a month your odds of being

harmed are 1 out of 23 million. The salience of that one event can out-weigh its wildly small odds

of happening to any given guest.

Why do we reject scientific explanations



When they conflict with intuition or popular opinion. Misunderstanding of chance & coincidence. Cognitive availability and confirmatory bias

We recall information that confirms our beliefs or feelings

“correlations” salient events



When they conflict with intuition or popular opinion. Misunderstanding of chance & coincidence. Cognitive availability and confirmatory bias Emotional needs; we are drawn to beliefs that:

Give us a sense of control over our world Provide a “larger picture” or sense of transcendence

ShutterstockShutterstock

People can be vulnerable to Astrology, ESP, Psychics and similar

superstitions because they lead us to think we can better predict and control

our world.



When they conflict with intuition or popular opinion. Misunderstanding of chance & coincidence. Cognitive availability and confirmatory bias Emotional needs; we are drawn to beliefs that:

Give us a sense of control over our world Provide a “larger picture” or sense of transcendence

Cultural patterns Our polarized political culture intentionally confuses fact with

opinion. Uncritical media coverage of even silly ‘theories’.

o The [evolution, Obama birth place…] “controversy”.



Cultural patterns Our polarized political culture intentionally confuses fact with

opinion.The illegal immigrant “crisis” in the U.S. is largely a political fiction.

Illegal (and legal) immigrants are not entering the country at near the catastrophic numbers cited by politicians and commentators. Outflow of immigrants is roughly equal to inflow.

Immigrants – legal and illegal – show lower rates of crime, alcohol & drug abuse and other social problems than does the general population.

Political and media commentators cite an immigrant “crisis” (likening most illegal immigrants to hardened criminals) to generate fear and win votes by proposing simplistic (and even inhumane) “solutions”.

Individuals threatened by a changing economy & culture can focus their anxiety on a social “out group” rather than the less controllable, more abstract international economic processes.


54

From: http://images.thesecret.tv/The-Secret-Press-Kit-Dec13.pdf

Why “Truthiness”? Our media and political cultures increasingly merge

fact and opinion: ‘Truth’ is increasingly seen as personal, not public or

objective.

Quasi-mystical belief systems (and expensive products!) such as The Secret gain millions of followers by positing that physical reality can be molded by individual beliefs.

http://thesecret.tv/index.html


55“Truthiness” in modern culture

“Truthiness”, introduced by Stephen Colbert in his first show, was the Merriam Webster word of the year in 2006.

It means accepting something as ‘fact’ primarily because it feels right.

Colbert was framing “truthiness” as emblematic of our collective refusal to adhere to hard facts – e.g., science and empiricism.

Click for Colbert’s

Truthiness description.

Some Context:The President had nominated Harriet Meyers, his personal lawyer, to the Supreme Court.

She was clearly unqualified (by her own report).

The President pushed for her so he would have an ally on the court.

Our media and political cultures increasingly merge fact and opinion:

http://thecolbertreport.cc.com/videos/63ite2/the-word---truthiness


56Why “Truthiness”? Our media and political cultures

increasingly merge fact and opinion:

This frees anti-science commentators to attribute everything from evolution, the “big bang” theory, climate change, to the effects of gun violence to ideology, not fact.

Using emotional resonance as a criteria for belief allows us to ignore or distort facts that do not fit.

‘Facts’ or science are viewed by some as elitist or politically suspect…

Academia and, in particular, social sciences do have a bias toward liberal thought…(Click for an excellent overview in The New Yorker).

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fixing-the-problem-of-liberal-bias-in-social-psychology/

http://www.newyorker.com/science/maria-konnikova/social-psychology-biased-republicans

http://thecolbertreport.cc.com/videos/63ite2/the-word---truthiness


57American penchant for conspiracy theories

Another social / cognitive process that undermines the acceptance of science are conspiracy theories.

What are conspiracy theories and where do they come from?

Conspiracy theories…

Image: http://rememberbuilding7.org/ Click for a site dedicated to disputing the official version of the collapse of “Building 7” at the 9/11 site.

http://rememberbuilding7.org/





58Conspiracy theories

Stem from a fear-based cognitive style Richard Hofstadter accurately described a paranoid style in

American politics, featuring conspiracy theories from the very outset of the country.

Simple stress, powerlessness or alienation can induce irrational or conspiratorial beliefs.

…particularly those that lessen complexity and restore a sense of control to life.

Strong free-market beliefs can induce conspiratorial thinking when issues such as climate change may justify economic regulations (here and here).

Our brain may create vulnerability to conspiracy views; Our brain has evolved to see patterns in our world, and to respond

quickly to threat. These two dispositions can, under stress or uncertainty, lead to

conspiracy perspectives.

http://harpers.org/archive/1964/11/the-paranoid-style-in-american-politics/

http://harpers.org/archive/1964/11/the-paranoid-style-in-american-politics/

http://psp.sagepub.com/content/28/1/102.full.pdf

http://pss.sagepub.com.proxy.cc.uic.edu/content/24/5/622

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0075637

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/naturally-selected/201412/why-our-brains-are-hardwired-conspiracy-theories



Stem from a fear-based cognitive style Our brain may create vulnerability to conspiracy views; Consensus among scientists is (falsely) denied, to make

conclusions appear arbitrary. …”many scientists do not accept climate change…” …”scientists disagree on how evolution even works…”

“Closed loop” logic; Attempts to refute the theory are just evidence of the conspiracy

itself (e.g., the “lame stream media” is in on the climate change hoax).

Circumstantial evidence is overstated …”if it is cold today global warming must be a myth…” …”my child became autistic just after he got vaccinated…”



Stem from a fear-based cognitive style Our brain may create vulnerability to conspiracy views; Consensus among scientists is denied, to make conclusions

appear arbitrary. “Closed loop” logic; Circumstantial evidence is overstated Powerful confirmatory bias

“Evidence” consistent with the conspiracy theory is accepted & publicized

Contrary evidence is ignored, dismissed or distorted.


61Examples of anti-scientific conspiracy theories.

Autism is caused by the MMR Vaccine HIV is not the cause of AIDS Climate change is a Hoax

“Just so you know, global warming is a total fraud and it is being designed by… liberals who get elected at the local level want state government to do the work and let them make the decisions.”…“That’s what the game plan is. It’s … more and bigger control over our lives by higher levels of government. And global warming is that strategy in spades”. Dana Rohrabacher. R California.

“One of the difficulties in examining the issue of the climate change and greenhouse gases is that there is a wide range of scientific opinion on this issue and the science community does not agree to the extent of the problem or the critical threshold of when this problem is truly catastrophic.” Daryl Issa, R-Cal.


62Bottom line

American media, political and religious trends are often not supportive of empirical or scientific thought.

• Political polarization often requires a rejection of empirical thought

• “Truthiness”; we take our own feelings as a guide to what is true.

• Conspiracy theories

A scientific (rational, empirical) perspective: Has critical thinking as a core value Combines rational thought with empirical evidence Is not just a “research method”, but a larger approach to

knowledge.

In addition, our cognitive and emotional dispositions may make rational, evidence-based judgments more difficult…


63Intuition and Magical thought

Our brains may be “hard wired” for intuitive, “Magical Thought”


64Intuition, Magical Thought & science

The brain has evolved to make snap judgments about causation:

We leap to conclusions before logic can be applied. Our emotional needs can distort our perceptions before the

logical brain kicks in…

Our need to feel in control can lead to imagine cause and effect when there really is none (…The Secret, “magic” foods or diets, rituals).

We experience emotions faster than we can think

WTF !!??!!

Shutterstock


65Intuition, Magical Thought & science

Taking a rational, empirical approach often requires us to suppress our intuitions or emotions

The brain has evolved to make snap judgments about causation:

We leap to conclusions before logic can be applied. Our emotional needs can distort our perceptions before the

logical brain kicks in… Our need to feel in control can lead to imagine cause and

effect when there really is none (…The Secret, “magic” foods or diets, rituals).

NYTimes.com: Leonard Nimoy, best known for playing the character Spock in the Star Trek television shows and films, died at 83. Click image for story.By Robin Lindsay on Publish Date February 27, 2015. Photo by NBC, via Photofest.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/27/arts/television/leonard-nimoy-spock-of-star-trek-dies-at-83.html


66

“Magical thought” is a spurious belief in cause & effect.

Friday the 13th is unlucky Never open an umbrellas inside / put a hat on the bed Cross your fingers / Knock on wood for luck 666 is evil / Break a mirror get 7 years bad luck Black cat crossing your path is unlucky Never walk under a ladder Always pick up a penny

Magic in Western culture.

How many of these do you agree with?

A = Pretty much all these are trueB = 4 or 5 are trueC = 2 or 3 are trueD = I can see at least one that is trueE = None of them are true


67Magical thought is woven into mainstream culture

A form of sympathetic magic: like attracts like. Feelings and thoughts send a “frequency” to the

world that attracts other things on that frequency.

Therefore, your thoughts affect nature directly:

Pop self-improvement methods: such as “The secret”, the great majority of Dr. Oz’s promotions…

Core concept: “The law of attraction”;

Evidence: Yes, being optimistic helps get you motivated NO, your brain cannot reorder the physical world.

Both promoted by celebrities such as Oprah Winfrey.

Thinking about money will actually change your finances.

“Healthy thoughts” will directly affect your body.


68Magical thought and marketing

Magnetic Athletic gear Concept: Magnets enhance blood flow.

Iron in the blood is attracted to a magnetic force.

The body has an electromagnetic energy balance.

Magnets ‘rebalance’ energy to lower strain & injuries.

Evidence: Magnetism has a long & sorry history in fraudulent “magic” cures. Blood iron is bound to hemoglobin and is not magnetic. There is no identifiable ‘electromagnetic energy balance’. No evidence supports either the theory or practice of magnet therapy.

Click for a Live Science article on magnetic healing.

http://www.livescience.com/40174-magnetic-therapy.html



Click the image for an excellent review of this magical thought by Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons in the New York Times.

Chabris & Simons describe “The Secret”, “The Power” and the like as perfectly exploiting our cognitive bias’ and limitations: We have limitless (cognitive, physical,

spiritual) powers, if only we could unleash them…;

The “nature” we see about us is infinitely malleable; our thoughts and feelings override / modify the physical world.

“Physics” and “The Ancients” tell us all this is true.

Illustration by Ross MacDonald /New York Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/26/books/review/Chabris-t.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/26/books/review/Chabris-t.html


70

Concept:Substances that enhance healing

inside the body can reverse wrinkles when applied to the skin.

Collagen, stem cells.

Magical thought and marketing

Evidence: Most botanicals do not even penetrate the skin. No efficacy data at all. Collagen in high consistent doses can increase skin firmness, but

the effect vanishes once the regimen stops. Marketed as ‘rare’ products, with prices into the hundreds of dollars. Cheap brands are typically identical to expensive labels.

Anti-aging beauty products

Click for a brief Chicago Tribune article on anti-aging creams..

Click image for lengthy WebMD review.

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-01-31/health/ct-met-skin-creams-20110131_1_anti-aging-drug-claims-products

http://www.webmd.com/beauty/aging/more-hope-jar-anti-aging-skin-care-promise?page=1

http://www.webmd.com/beauty/aging/more-hope-jar-anti-aging-skin-care-promise?page=1



Some ads not only suggest anti-aging properties, but seem to touch on some politically sensitive topics…

Image from Beauty and Fashion forum of http://forums.vr-zone.com/. Click image for direct link.

http://forums.vr-zone.com/



http://forums.vr-zone.com/beauty-fashion-garage/2953914-el-marino-blanc-beauty-collagen-anti-aging-weight-loss-man-woman.html



Concept: “Natural” ingredients in very

high doses enhance health. High doses of agents already in

the body (vitamins, minerals) enhance health.

Diet supplements

Evidence: Most supplements (even from major stores) have no active ingredients.

In a New York Times investigation Target's “Up and Up” brand of St. Johns Wort and Valerian root contained none of those ingredients.

Some unlisted ingredients (ephedrine, caffeine) are dangerous in high doses.

Multi-billion dollar industry with virtually no regulations, and zero proven efficacy. Click for the NYT article

on supplements.

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/15592587/ns/health-diet_and_nutrition/t/dieters-skip-doctors-turn-magical-thinking

http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/02/03/sidebar-whats-in-those-supplements



Why do so many people believe in these “magical” products? We are lied to by marketers,

who we irrationally trust. (See, for example, http://www.ionloop.com/)

We want to believe• We want to have control

over our world• We filter information to

support our needs.

Click the image for a cute satire of

homeopathic medicine.

http://www.ionloop.com/

http://www.ionloop.com/

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/15592587/ns/health-diet_and_nutrition/t/dieters-skip-doctors-turn-magical-thinking

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgxzSUxxRzE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgxzSUxxRzE


74Rational and irrational thought

Critical / Empirical thought is often not the norm Political / religious / ideological biases

Many reject a scientific perspective when it threatens an existing belief system

Empiricism can be viewed as the enemy of political or economic interests.

The distinction between fact and opinion is increasingly blurred.

Cognitive biases Spurious correlations – coincidence – can seem to be “real”

We make snap judgments about cause & effect

Emotional needs. We often want to believe;

SUM

MA

RY

We seek control and predictability

We are vulnerable to explanations that make us feel good.


75Introduction to science, 3

Please go on to the quiz.

foundations of research 1 facts, beliefs and the irrational cranach, tree of knowledge [of good and...

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