founding events that had and continue to …...dhabi (adgas) turkey begins lng imports rasgas...

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CAMEL plant (Algeria) starts up with the first deliveries of LNG to Britain’s Canvey Island LNG Terminal 0.1 0.7 1.2 2.3 3.7 6.1 10.6 24.7 22.8 34.7 37.9 41.6 44.8 47.8 53.4 59.5 65.1 82.3 84.8 92.2 101.5 106.4 111.6 125.1 131.8 143.3 158.8 172.3 171.9 181.3 220.8 237.3 238 238 . . . Discovery of North Sea Gas Deliveries of CAMEL LNG to France begin Start of LNG exports from Kenai in Alaska to Japan Start of LNG exports from Brunei to Japan Libya begins to export LNG to Spain and Italy First US LNG importing terminal in Evere, MA, USA First crude oil price shock - Brunei starts renegotiations for first crude oil indexed LNG contract Gas Strategies begins; several founders of the LNG business in its ranks, its LNG understanding rooted in the foundations of the industry Qatargas 2: First to anchor 100% of supply to UK NBP traded hub Atlantic LNG Trains 2 & 3 and Nigerian LNG Trains 4 & 5 see sales to aggregators Gulf Gateway Energy Bridge Deepwater Port opened proving Floating LNG regas Excelerate Teesside Gas Port opens era of dockside LNG FSRU use Introduction of the 14.85% indexation to crude oil prices South Korean market opens with LNG from Arun LNG gets delivered from Indonesia to Boston - world’s longest haul and US’ only import in 1986 MARKET BASED CRUDE OIL PRICE <$10/BBL CRASHES BUT OGSP STAYS ABOVE $20/BBL OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT SHARE PRICES (OGSP) ABANDONED Indonesian and Algerian expansions Belgium begins LNG imports Start of LNG exports from Malaysia (Satu) to Japan Indonesian ‘Super deals’ - sales of string of cargoes - first of its kind, seles ‘overpayment mountain’ Abu Dhabi’s Adgas project introduces ‘S’-Curve type formulae in long term contracts Start of LNG exports from North West Shelf (Australia) to Japan OIL PRICE CRASH WORLD STOCK MARKET CRASH BERLIN WALL FALLS US MARINES DISPATCHED TO VIETNAM NEIL ARMSTRONG BECOMES THE FIRST MAN ON THE MOON VIETNAM WAR ENDS IN 1975 ARGENTINA INVADES THE FALKLAND ISLANDS IRAQ INVADES KUWAIT “MarAd saga” - Nigeria LNG buys spare vessels on the market Taiwan LNG market opens - Yungan - with initial supplies from Indonesia UK stops importing LNG Henry Hub futures contract first available on Nymex Spot LNG delivered from NWS, Australia to Spain Qatar QGPC and Mobil set up JV Ras Laffan Liquefied Natural Gas Company US gas bubble - Algerian LNG sales stop Start of LNG exports from Indonesia (Arun) to Japan Indonesia: The birth of limited-recourse LNG financing Start of LNG exports to Japan from Indonesia (Bontang), and Abu Dhabi (Adgas) Turkey begins LNG imports RasGas launches world’s first all Korean fleet for FOB sales anchored to Korean market BG acquires 100% capacity at Lake Charles Price out of range or POR negotiations: Crude oil price levels “out of range” bringing into play the “meet and discuss” provisions of the contracts Start of LNG exports from Atlantic LNG (Trinidad) just ahead of start up of RasGas Nigeria LNG start up Annual LNG trade exceeds 100 mtpa Greece imports first LNG China signs first deals with North West Shelf and Tangguh Portugal first LNG imports UK resumes LNG imports First import of LNG to UK in 20 years as North Sea production declines Chinese LNG market opens - Guangdong I Qatar becomes number 1 LNG exporter in the world LNG imports to USA highest ever at 3.1Bcf/d.Compared to 2006 average of 1.6Bcf/d Pipeline gas exports to Europe from Russia distrupted due to dispute with Ukraine Middle Eastern LNG market opens - Kuwait GasPort Chile imports first LNG Australia overtakes Qatar as world’s largest LNG producer First FLNG production begins Shale gas boom in the US starts Cheniere signs first US Gulf Coast export deals with BG with indexation to Henry Hub prices SEGAS LNG plant in Egypt is mothballed Qatar capacity reaches 77 mtpa Nigeria LNG Train 5 starts up JULY: OIL AT $147/BBL DECEMBER: OIL AT $35/BBL First US re-export from Sabine Pass Annual LNG trade exceeds 220mtpa Israel, Singapore and Malaysia become LNG importers Ice-bound Yamal LNG takes FID US lower-48 LNG exports begin CSG-LNG projects begin production in Queensland India begins LNG imports Atlantic LNG negotiates first destination flexible contract UK traded gas hub, NBP gas contract first available on IPE Qatar enters the LNG world, with equity liſting on LNG volumes KYOTO AGREEMENT PROPOSES TO LIMIT GREENHOUSE GASES ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS EURO LAUNCHED HURRICANE KATRINA END OF THE IRAN/IRAQ WAR 1962-64 1965 1969 1970-1971 1972 1973 1974-77 1978-80 1981-1982 1983 - 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 - 1993 1994 - 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 THE FUTURE EVENTS THAT HAD AND CONTINUE TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE SHAPE OF THE GLOBAL LNG TRADE Industry key events Oil price ($/bbl) LNG trade (mtpa) LNG Projects and market openings Macro - economic and other external factors FOUNDING YEAR CERN MAKES WORLD WIDE WEB PUBLIC OR FREELY USABLE ENRON BANKRUPT HENRY HUB REACHES $10/MMBTU IN WINTER EXXON ACQUIRES MOBIL FOR $75.4 BILLION BP ACQUIRES AMOCO FOR $110 BILLION THE GREAT EAST JAPAN (FUKUSHIMA) EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI GREAT RECESSION: GLOBAL ECONOMY CONTRACTS FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE WWII HENRY HUB DROPS TO BELOW $2/MMBTU CHINA OVERTAKES US AS WORLD’S LARGEST ECONOMY 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.0 3.5 12.5 22.9 35.9 28.8 14.3 18.3 14.9 18.2 23.7 18.8 15.8 19.1 12.7 17.9 28.4 24.5 25 28.8 38.2 54.4 65.1 72.5 97 61.5 79.5 111.3 111.6 108.6 . . . 700 1969 MTPA 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 PLANT START UP TERMINAL START UP LANT START UP ERMINAL START UP TE PL 9 71 3 5 77 9 81 3 5 7 9 91 3 5 7 9 01 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 7 7 9 5 7 9

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Page 1: FOUNDING EVENTS THAT HAD AND CONTINUE TO …...Dhabi (Adgas) Turkey begins LNG imports RasGas launches world’s first all Korean fleet for FOB sales anchored to Korean market BG acquires

CAMEL plant (Algeria) starts up with the first deliveries of LNG to Britain’s Canvey Island LNG Terminal

0.1 0.7 1.2 2.3 3.7 6.1 10.6 24.7 22.8 34.7 37.9 41.6 44.8 47.8 53.4 59.5 65.1 82.3 84.8 92.2 101.5 106.4 111.6 125.1 131.8 143.3 158.8 172.3 171.9 181.3 220.8 237.3 238 238 . . .

Discovery of North Sea Gas

Deliveries of CAMEL LNG to France begin

Start of LNG exports from Kenai in Alaska to Japan

Start of LNG exports from Brunei to Japan

Libya begins to export LNG to Spain and Italy

First US LNG importing terminal in Everett, MA, USA

First crude oil price shock - Brunei starts renegotiations for first crude oil indexed LNG contract

Gas Strategies begins; several founders of the LNG business in its ranks, its LNG understanding rooted in the foundations of the industry

Qatargas 2: First to anchor 100% of supply to UK NBP traded hub

Atlantic LNG Trains 2 & 3 and Nigerian LNG Trains 4 & 5 see sales to aggregators

Gulf Gateway Energy Bridge Deepwater Port opened proving Floating LNG regas

Excelerate Teesside Gas Port opens era of dockside LNG FSRU use

Introduction of the 14.85% indexation to crude oil prices

South Korean market opens with LNG from Arun

LNG gets delivered from Indonesia to Boston - world’s longest haul and US’ only import in 1986

MARKET BASED CRUDE OIL PRICE <$10/BBL CRASHES BUT OGSP STAYS ABOVE $20/BBL

OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT SHARE PRICES (OGSP)ABANDONED

Indonesian and Algerian expansions

Belgium begins LNG imports

Start of LNG exports from Malaysia (Satu) to Japan

Indonesian ‘Super deals’ - sales of string of cargoes - first of its kind, settles ‘overpayment mountain’

Abu Dhabi’s Adgas project introduces ‘S’-Curve type formulae in long term contracts

Start of LNG exports from North West Shelf (Australia) to Japan

OIL PRICE CRASH

WORLD STOCK MARKET CRASH

BERLIN WALL FALLS

US MARINES DISPATCHED TO VIETNAM

NEIL ARMSTRONG BECOMES THE FIRST MAN ON THE MOON

VIETNAM WAR ENDS IN 1975

ARGENTINA INVADES THE FALKLAND ISLANDS

IRAQ INVADES KUWAIT

“MarAd saga” - Nigeria LNG buys spare vessels on the market

Taiwan LNG market opens - Yungan - with initial supplies from Indonesia

UK stops importing LNG

Henry Hub futures contract first available on Nymex

Spot LNG delivered from NWS, Australia to Spain

Qatar QGPC and Mobil set up JV Ras Laffan Liquefied Natural Gas Company

US gas bubble - Algerian LNG sales stop

Start of LNG exports from Indonesia (Arun) to Japan

Indonesia: The birth of limited-recourse LNG financing

Start of LNG exports to Japan from Indonesia (Bontang), and Abu Dhabi (Adgas)

Turkey begins LNG imports

RasGas launches world’s first all Korean fleet for FOB sales anchored to Korean market

BG acquires 100% capacity at Lake Charles

Price out of range or POR negotiations: Crude oil price levels “out of range” bringing into play the “meet and discuss” provisions of the contracts

Start of LNG exports from Atlantic LNG (Trinidad) just ahead of start up of RasGas

Nigeria LNG start up

Annual LNG trade exceeds 100 mtpa

Greece imports first LNG

China signs first deals with North West Shelf and Tangguh

Portugal first LNG imports

UK resumes LNG imports

First import of LNG to UK in 20 years as North Sea production declines

Chinese LNG market opens - Guangdong I

Qatar becomes number 1 LNG exporter in the world

LNG imports to USA highest ever at 3.1Bcf/d.Compared to 2006 average of 1.6Bcf/d

Pipeline gas exports to Europe from Russia distrupted due to dispute with Ukraine

Middle Eastern LNG market opens - Kuwait GasPort

Chile imports first LNG

Australia overtakes Qatar as world’s largest LNG producer

First FLNG production begins

Shale gas boom in the US starts

Cheniere signs first US Gulf Coast export deals with BG with indexation to Henry Hub prices

SEGAS LNG plant in Egypt is mothballed

Qatar capacity reaches 77 mtpa

Nigeria LNG Train 5 starts up

JULY: OIL AT $147/BBLDECEMBER: OIL AT $35/BBL

First US re-export from Sabine Pass

Annual LNG trade exceeds 220mtpa

Israel, Singapore and Malaysia become LNG importers

Ice-bound Yamal LNG takes FID

US lower-48 LNG exports begin

CSG-LNG projects begin production in Queensland

India begins LNG imports

Atlantic LNG negotiates first destination flexible contract

UK traded gas hub, NBP gas contract first available on IPE

Qatar enters the LNG world, with equity lifting on LNG volumes

KYOTO AGREEMENT PROPOSES TO LIMIT GREENHOUSE GASES

ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS

EURO LAUNCHED

HURRICANE KATRINA

END OF THE IRAN/IRAQ WAR

1962-64 1965 1969 1970-1971 1972 1973 1974-77 1978-80 1981-1982  1983 - 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 - 1993 1994 - 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001   2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 THE FUTURE

EVENTS THAT HAD AND CONTINUE TO HAVE A SIGNIFIC ANT IMPACT ON THE SHAPE OF THE GLOBAL LNG TRADE

Industry key events

Oil price($/bbl)

LNG trade(mtpa)

LNG Projects and market

openings

Macro - economic and other

external factors

FOUNDING YEAR

CERN MAKES WORLD WIDE WEB PUBLIC OR FREELY USABLE

ENRON BANKRUPT

HENRY HUB REACHES $10/MMBTU IN WINTER

EXXON ACQUIRES MOBIL FOR $75.4 BILLION

BP ACQUIRES AMOCO FOR $110 BILLION

THE GREAT EAST JAPAN (FUKUSHIMA) EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI

GREAT RECESSION: GLOBAL ECONOMY CONTRACTS FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE WWII

HENRY HUB DROPS TO BELOW $2/MMBTU

CHINA OVERTAKES US AS WORLD’S LARGEST ECONOMY

1.8 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.0 3.5 12.5 22.9 35.9 28.8 14.3 18.3 14.9 18.2 23.7 18.8 15.8 19.1 12.7 17.9 28.4 24.5 25 28.8 38.2 54.4 65.1 72.5 97 61.5 79.5 111.3 111.6 108.6 . . .

700

1969

MTPA

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

PLANT START UP

TERMINAL START UP

LANT START UP

ERMINAL START UPTE

PL9 71 3 5 77 9 81 3 5 7 9 91 3 5 7 9 01 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 77 7 9 5 7 9

Page 2: FOUNDING EVENTS THAT HAD AND CONTINUE TO …...Dhabi (Adgas) Turkey begins LNG imports RasGas launches world’s first all Korean fleet for FOB sales anchored to Korean market BG acquires

Gas Strategies has LNG understanding in its DNA: rooted in the foundations of the industry, nurtured in the challenges of its evolution over the last 28 years, enriched by the visions of its future.

When our company launched its first activities in 1986, the LNG industry was facing a crisis of confidence as the oil price crashed, the long term future of Asian LNG projects was being questioned and many thought the recently launched Australian North West Shelf project would be the “last of the century” to be developed.

How wrong they were.

The LNG industry immediately rebounded, new contracting arrangements were quickly developed (including the first “S-curve” pricing formula), JCC became the price index of choice in Asia, short term cargo deals were born, the Korean market opened and steps were taken

to revive an LNG project in Nigeria and revamp the Algerian LNG plants. The North West Shelf project started up in 1989 and immediately began planning expansion.

By the mid-1990s development activity was underway in Qatar, Oman and Trinidad & Tobago as well as Nigeria and Algeria and the decade closed with four new supply countries and new markets opening in Taiwan and Turkey.

The new millennium saw this activity increase at an exponential rate with the LNG industry growing at an annual 7.8% to reach 240 mtpa in world trade in 2011. Since then the LNG industry has plateaued – with supply side constraints,

and the coincidence of start-up timing leading to a temporary hiatus on market growth. However, new projects in Australia will see a reversal of that trend with seven new projects under construction and entering the market from 2015.

Beyond that, all eyes turn to North America where there is the potential for a similar wave of new supply. US LNG also represents a significant shift in LNG project business model, with facilities operated on a pure tolling basis and capacity holders responsible for sourcing their own gas and marketing their own LNG.

Gas Strategies is proud to have been closely involved in the constant process of change,

revivals of markets and basins, new business models and entry of new players and practices in the industry over the last 28 years. We have provided commercial advice to clients from the Pacific to the Atlantic, the Middle East, Africa, Europe and the Americas North and South with some of our major achievements being centred on breakthrough developments. As we applied and developed our LNG understanding we were with the creators or founders of many breakthrough developments such as Indonesia’s first contract extensions, Atlantic LNG of Trinidad & Tobago, a project dismissed as impossible by its detractors right up to FID; RasGas, the first project to be launched solely on Korean market demand with an all Korean fleet and the first to be bond-financed.

Among others were Qatargas II, the only project to be developed from field to receiving terminal as one project and the first to be anchored on traded market gas pricing, Teesside GasPort the first of many applications of dockside floating regas (FSRU), both the first receiving terminal project and the first supply project in South America, the recent wave of new projects in Australia and the start-up of US Gulf coast exports. And we see a bright and ever changing future for LNG in the next 50 years.

Peter Thompson [email protected] +44 (0) 20 7332 9947 www.gasstrategies.com

© CO

LIN CO

UTTS

YEARS OF CHANGE

Peter ThompsonGas Strategies, 10 St Bride Street, London EC4A 4AD [email protected]+44 (0) 20 7332 9947

www.gasstrategies.com © Gas Strategies 2014

LNG LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS