fourth poverty reduction strategies forum bosnia...
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FOURTH POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES FORUM
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
Ljerka Maric, BH Council of Ministers26. June, 2007 Athens, Greece
MTDS - LATEST INFORMATION ON IMPLEMENTATION
Report on Implementation of MTDS is prepared on semi-annual basis.By the end of 2006, 922 measures were planned for implementationClose to 62% of the measures, or 569 measures were either completed or in continuous implementation Out of the total number of measures, 66 measures were not implemented, which is 7.2% of the total number of measures
922
569
Total number of measures
Completed or continuously implemeted
7.20%
31.10%
61.70%
Not implemented
In realization
Completed or continuously implemeted
62.10%61.50%
55.02%
B&H CoM RS GOVERNMENT FBIH GOVERNMENT
MTDS - LATEST INFORMATION ON IMPLEMENTATION (2)
Success in implementation of MTDS measures by B&H governments
MTDS - LATEST INFORMATION ON IMPLEMENTATION (3)
Success in implementation of MTDS measures by B&H parliaments
90%
86%
76%
RS National Assembly
B&H Parliamentary Assembly
FBiH Parliament
MTDS - LATEST INFORMATION ON IMPLEMENTATION (4)
Source: Report on implementation of MTDS for period August 2003-December 2006
Uspješnost u implementaciji mjera iz makroekonomskog okvira i rasta privatnog sektora
MA
KR
OFI
SKA
LNI
OK
VIR
POSL
OVN
OO
KR
UZE
NJE
PRIV
ATI
ZAC
IJA
FIN
AN
SIJE
TRZI
STE
RA
DA
VAN
JSK
ATR
GO
VIN
A
KO
RU
PCIJ
A
JAVN
A U
PRA
VA
STA
TIST
IKA
NIJE U TOKU REALIZACIJEU TOKU REALIZACIJEKOMPLETIRANO ILI SE KONTINUIRANO IMPLEMENTIRA
Izvor: Izvještaj o implementaciji Akcionog plana Srednjoročne razvojne strategije BiH za period avgust 2003 – decembar2006
Success in implementation of MTDS measures in area of macro-economic framework and private sector growth
Uspješnost u implementaciji mjera iz oblasti sektorskih prioriteta
SOC
IJA
LNI
SEK
TOR
OB
RA
ZOVA
NJE
ZDR
AVS
TVO
POLJ
OPR
IVR
EDA
OK
OLI
S
VOD
OPR
IVR
EDA
ENER
GET
IKA
INFR
AST
RU
KTU
RA
IND
UST
RIJ
A
TUR
IZA
M
DEM
INIR
AN
JE ICT
GEN
DER
LJU
DSK
A P
RA
VA
KOMPLETIRANO U TOKU REALIZACIJE NIJE U TOKU REALIZACIJE
Izvor: Izvještaj o implementaciji Akcionog plana Srednjoročne razvojne strategije BiH za period avgust 2003 – decembar2006
MTDS - LATEST INFORMATION ON IMPLEMENTATION (5)
Success in implementation of MTDS measures in area of sectoral priorities
BASIC ECONOMIC INDICATORSGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
10,71311,599
12,829 13,44314,678
15,79117,553
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006*
Bruto domaći proizvod, mil. KM
*EstimateSource: BiH Agency for Statistics
Gross domestic product, KM million
FOREIGN TRADE SECTOR
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000
K1-
2003
K3-
2003
K1-
2004
K3-
2004
K1-
2005
K3-
2005
K1-
2006
K3-
2006
K1-
2007
Imports Exports DeficitSource: BiH Central Bank
Introduction of VAT
REGISTERED NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED IN B&H, MONTHLY DATA (in ,000)
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: Employment agencies of FBiH, RS and DB, DB Statistical office
AVERAGE WAGES IN B&H (in KM), MONTHLY DATA
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
580
600
620
640
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: BiH Agency for Statistics
25342869 3037
3402
4343
11521391
16021812
2666
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Road Toll Customs Duties VAT Total indirect taxes
Source: B&H Indirect Taxation Authority
January 1, 2005 – Transfer of all authority for collection of indirect taxes to B&H Indirect Taxation Authority
INDIRECT TAXATION INCOME (in KM million)
January 1, 2006 – Introduction of VAT
B&H APPROACH TO DEVELOPMENT
Post-war BiH has had two types of documents which define strategic development directions at the state level, to date:
1. Documents oriented towards World Bank / IMF documents targeting international donations and loans/credits (PRSP, MTDS..)
2. Documents oriented towards EU targeting the EU accession process (EU Accession Strategy, NDP...)
Apart from those there are other policy analysis documents:
1. Variuos types of statistical research2. UNDP Human Development Report3. Strategic donor documents, which represent the basis for their support
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MAIN CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MTDS PROCESS
The planning of national development is the core of the MTDS document and process and it consisted and consists of the following steps :
1. Status diagnosis2. Moves toward planning and allocation of funds 3. Policy Implementation process4. M&E development
These steps should provide precondition for evident based policy makingapproach.
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CHALLENGES IN IMPLEMENTING & MONITORING THE MTDS
MTDS has wide spread of terminology, targets and indicators
Multi level Government with variable response to implementation of MTDS measures
Limited capacity to manage implementation and monitor
MTDS not effectively connected with budgets
Very poor prioritization of the measures in the original MTDS
Little connection between macro goals and local planning
Many information and data gaps, particularly regarding social sector
EPPU/DEP Lacking of contacts at local levels to develop qualitative monitoring
Information related to administrative measures rather than impact on service delivery or Impact citizens
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CHALLENGES IN IMPLEMENTING & MONITORING THE MTDS (2)
MTDS process represents progression and learning process
Up to date implementation & monitoring process increase capacity of public administration on state and entity levels for creation of evident base policy making
DEP and partners currently
o building capacityo developing new information and new processeso establishing local linkages to build up local level data and connectionso working on qualitative information on effective implementation performance
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LESSONS LEARNED and MAIN RESULTS OF MTDS PROCESS
Common activities relating to development of B&H ( state, entities, DB) are possibleFor successful implementation it is necessary to respect political reality Commitment of the decision makers required for achievement of goals Prioritisation of activities and resource allocation requiredIntroduction of responsibilitiesInitial steps in capacity building of the public administration bodiesBetter coordination between governmental structures on all levels Creation of the structure for support of evidence base policy makingCreation of the structure for M&E of implemented tasks and activities Cooperation with civil society is crucial for the success of the processWithout support of international community B&H would not be able to implement the process
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EU INTEGRATION PROCESS - FROM MTDS TO NEW DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY (DS) and STRATEGY for SOCIAL INCLUSION (SIS)
EU integration process includes several milestones:
Stabilisation and Accession Process (SAP)
Stabilisation and Accession Agreeement (SAA)
Preaccession road starts
European partnership
The status of country candidate
This process also includes preparation of development documents like B&HDS 2008-2013 that will be a basis for NDP.
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NEW B&H DS 2008-2013 – BASIC CONTEXT
In accordance with obligatory directives of the Community, new Strategy as a basis for NDP should contain:
National development goals;
Instruments to be used for achieving these goals;
Financial and institutional conditions necessary for implementation;
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DS – STRUCTURE
In accordance with obligatory provisions and informal guidelines of EC, the new DS ( and future NDP) should includes the following:
Analysis of situation (estimate of current social –economical situation)
SWOT analysis of situation
Development strategy and goals
Ex ante evaluation (estimation of feasibility and expected impacts of programmes before their implementation)
Coherency and consistency of strategy
Financial tables: budgetary and others programmes
The Action Plan for implementation of measures must be connected to DS
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ACTION PLAN
An Action plan would include
Brief description of operational programmes
Action plan of activities
Institutional structure of implementation
A detailed DS and Action Plan could be a preliminary NDP
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SOCIAL IINCLUSION STRATEGY (SIS), JOINT INCLUSIONMEMORANDUM (JIM) AND NATIONAL ACTION PLAN (NAP)
Considering that the new B&H DS 2008-2013 will be more focused to economic development of the B&H, DEP will also prepare Social Inclusion Strategy.
The reasons for preparation of SIS are:
The number of excluded citizens in B&H is extremely high ( 50,32% ) but some groups are more jeopardize than others
Momentarily the social policy in B&H is more focused to social protection than to social inclusion
The main characteristics of social protection and spending for social protections are: lack of targeting (defining the groups of users), lack of adequacy and efficient centralization
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SOCIAL IINCLUSION STRATEGY (SIS), JOINT INCLUSIONMEMORANDUM (JIM) AND NATIONAL ACTION PLAN (NAP) -3
In 2007 B&H will start with preparation of the first SISThe purpose of SIS is to ensure better social inclusion and equal treatment of all B&H citizens as well as to fulfil precondition for EU integration.
Beside sectoral and intersectoral orientation the SIS will be focused to specific target groups as well
The main elements and strategy recommendations from B&H Strategy for disabled persons will be part of SIS
The values from DS and SIS will be framework for JIM.
The JIM has to prepare country for full legal participation in Open method of coordination of social inclusion.
Under this process, every country has to prepare a National Action Plan for exclusion (NAP/inclusion) for every two years based on common goals.
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DS, SIS and MTDS, MTEF and OTHER DEVELOPMENT DOCUMENTS
The new B&H DS and SIS should take account of existing:
Previously adopted socio-economic development documents of the country (The priorities from MTDS that were not implemented)
Four year or three year fiscal strategy & Public investment documents
Sectoral strategies
EU accession documents
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CONCLUSION
B&H is to embark on successor to MTDS
This should be a natural development from the PRSP and MTDS process toward the EU models and new DS and SIS
Take account of MTDS learning
Reflect current needs of B&H including jeopardized groups (disabled persons, as well)
Be coordianted through DEP
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