fourth quarter 2013 earnings & 2014 financial guidance .../media/eepeeqmep/events/eepeeq/... ·...
TRANSCRIPT
Legal Notice
2
This presentation includes certain forward looking information (“FLI”) to provide Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P. (“EEP”) and Enbridge
Energy Management, L.L.C. (“EEQ”) investors and potential investors with information about EEP and EEQ and management’s
assessment of the future plans and operations, which may not be appropriate for other purposes. FLI involves statements that frequently
use words such as “anticipate,” “believe,” “continue,” “could,” “estimate,” “expect,” “forecast,” “intend,” “may,” “plan,” “position,”
“projection,” “should,” “strategy,” “will” and similar words. Although we believe that such forward looking statements are reasonable based
on currently available information, such statements involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions and are not guarantees of performance.
Future actions, conditions or events and future results of operations may differ materially from those expressed in these forward-looking
statements. Many of the factors that will determine these results are beyond EEP’s ability to control or predict. Specific factors that could
cause actual results to differ from those in the forward-looking statements include: (1) changes in the demand for or the supply of,
forecast data for and price trends related to crude oil, liquid petroleum, natural gas and NGLs, including the rate of development of the
Alberta Oil Sands; (2) EEP’s ability to successfully complete and finance expansion projects; (3) the effects of competition, in particular,
by other pipeline systems; (4) shut-downs or cutbacks at facilities of EEP or refineries, petrochemical plants, utilities or other businesses
for which EEP transports products or to whom EEP sells products; (5) hazards and operating risks that may not be covered fully by
insurance, including those related to Line 6B and any additional fines and penalties assessed in connection with the crude oil release on
that line; (6) changes in or challenges to EEP’s tariff rates; and (7) changes in laws or regulations to which EEP is subject, including
compliance with environmental and operational safety regulations that may increase costs of system integrity testing and maintenance.
FLI regarding “drop-down” sales opportunities for our ownership in Midcoast Operating, L.P. are further qualified by the fact that Midcoast
Energy Partners, L.P. is under no obligation to buy any of our interests in Midcoast Operating, L.P., and we are under no obligation to sell
any such additional interests. As a result, we do not know when or if any such additional interests will be sold.
Our FLI is also subject to risks and uncertainties pertaining to operating performance, regulatory parameters, project approval and
support, weather, economic conditions, interest rates and commodity prices, including but not limited to those discussed more extensively
in our filings with U.S. securities regulators. The impact of any one risk, uncertainty or factor on any particular FLI is not determinable
with certainty as these are interdependent and our future course of action depends on management’s assessment of all information
available at the relevant time. Any FLI in this presentation is based only on information currently available to us and speaks only of the
date on which it is made. Except to the extent required by law, we assume no obligation to publicly update or revise any FLI, whether as
a result of new information, future events or otherwise. All FLI in this presentation is expressly qualified in its entirety by these cautionary
statements and by such other factors as discussed in EEP’s and EEQ’s SEC filings, including its most recently filed Annual Report on
Form 10-K and subsequently filed Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q.
Agenda
1. Review of 2013
2. Funding Outlook
3. Liquids Pipelines Growth
4. MEP Strategic Rationale
5. 2014 Financial Guidance
6. Question & Answer
3
2013 Financial Summary
4
($millions, except per unit amounts ) 4Q 2013 4Q 2012 FY 2013 FY 2012
Adjusted EBITDA1 $303.3 $267.5 $1,143.4 $1,144.1
Adjusted Net Income2 $73.1 $87.2 $304.5 $ 410.2
Adjusted Net Income per unit2 $0.12 $0.18 $0.54 $0.99
Unaudited; adjusted results exclude the impact of: (a) additional environmental costs, net of insurance recoveries, associated with the Line 6B incident; and (b) non-cash, mark-to-
market net gains and losses; among other adjustments. Refer to the Non-GAAP Reconciliation tables presented in the supplemental slides. 1Adjusted EBITDA includes non-controlling interest. 2Adjusted net income after non-controlling interest and deferred distribution attributable to preferred unitholders. Preferred units deferred distribution of $58.2 million in 2013; $22.4
million in 4Q13.
Financial Results
As-declared Coverage Ratio
0.70x
0.79x 0.82x 0.89x
0.00x
0.20x
0.40x
0.60x
0.80x
1.00x
2013 2012
Cash coverage
Coverage including PIK distribution Coverage metric excludes deferred distribution attributable to preferred unitholders.
2,463
1,283
165
228
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
12/31/2013 12/31/2012
$ m
illio
ns
Credit Facilities Cash
$1,511
$2,628
Available Liquidity
Liquids Segment Results
5
1.74 1.84
1.68 1.83
1.92
0.21
0.22
0.17
0.22 0.20 0.17
0.13
0.15
0.21 0.20
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
Volu
me b
y S
yste
m (
mm
bpd)
Lakehead Mid-Continent North Dakota
133.0
154.3
167.9
150.2
185.8
0
50
100
150
200
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
$ m
illio
ns
Adjusted Operating Income Volumes
Unaudited; adjusted results exclude the impact of: (a) additional environmental costs, net of insurance recoveries, associated with the incident on Line 6B; and (b) non-cash, mark-to-
market net gains and losses; among other adjustments. Refer to the Non-GAAP Reconciliation tables presented in the supplemental slides.
Natural Gas Segment
6
42.9
26.4
15.7 17.3
4.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
$ m
illio
ns
998 964 972 957 902
1,233 1,252 1,211 1,120 1,028
333 332 344 314
292
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
Avera
ge R
ig C
ount
EE
P M
ain
Regio
ns
Vo
lum
e b
y S
yste
m (
mm
btu
/d in
th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Anadarko East Texas North Texas Rig Count
Unaudited; adjusted results exclude the impact of: (a) non-cash, mark-to-market net gains and losses; among other adjustments. Refer to the Non-GAAP Reconciliation tables
presented in the supplemental slides.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
NG
L P
rod
ucti
on
(b
pd
)
Adjusted Operating Income Volumes / Rig Count
4Q13 Operating Headwinds: • Producer freeze-offs • Unplanned downtime
2013 Review
Market Headwinds Impacted Financial Performance
System integrity and operational reliability focus
$1.8 Billion of assets placed into service ~ FY cash flows in 2014
Tangible Progress on Funding Plan • Preferred Unit Private Placement + $1.2 Billion
• Exercise Joint Funding Option +$720MM
• Accounts Receivable Sale
• EEQ Public Offering +$500MM
• Upsized Credit Facilities +$525MM
• Midcoast Energy Partners IPO +$675MM
MEP IPO additional funding source for Liquids Expansions
7
Alleviate Equity Overhang
Strengthen Credit
Metrics
Funding Plan 2014-2017 (unconsolidated)
Debt
Total Requirement 1.2
2014 – 2017 Maturities 0.9
Debt Requirement 2.1
Equity
Total Requirement 1.2
EEQ PIK 0.6
Equity Requirement 0.6
8
Financing Options
Bank Credit Facility
Floating Rate Note
Term Debt
Hybrid Securities
Additional MEP Drop-Downs
Hybrid Securities
Private Placement
ATM program
EEP/EEQ Common Unit Offering
Uses/(Sources)
Secured Growth Capital 7.0
Maintenance Capital 0.4
Joint Funding Call Back on Lakehead Expansions 0.7
8.1
ENB Joint Funding (2.1)
Sandpiper Joint Funding (1.0)
MEP Drop-Downs +/- (2.6)
Net Funding Required 2.4
Equity funding requirements minimal; capacity for further growth investment
($billion)
Providing New Market Access
9
Norman Wells
Zama
Edmonton
Fort McMurray
Portland
Seattle
Casper
Montreal
Salt Lake City
Patoka
Cushing
Superior
Chicago
Clearbrook
Regina
Flanagan
Hardisty
Toledo Sarnia
Buffalo
Houston
St. James
Cromer St. John
+600 kbpd
Heavy
+80 kbpd
Heavy
+250 kbpd Light
+50 kbpd Heavy
+300 kbpd Light
Western USGC
Access
Eastern Access
Light Oil Market
Access
+50 kbpd Light
Opening New Markets for up to 1.7 million barrels per day + ~1.0 MMbpd of Heavy and + ~0.7 MMbpd of Light
+50 kbpd Light
Nanticoke +250 kbpd
Heavy
Organic Growth Projects:
Commercially secured
Low risk framework
Long-term contracts
EEP Lakehead & North Dakota
Systems
Bakken Expansion – Sandpiper Pipeline
Clearbrook
Sarnia
Patoka
Toledo
Montreal
Westover
Hardisty
Cushing
Sandpiper Pipeline
Sandpiper ($2.6 B)
• Scope: 610 mile, 24”/30” pipeline
• Capacity: ~ 225 kbpd/375 kbpd
• Target in-service: Early 2016
• Marathon Funding:
37.5% of construction for ~27% equity
interest in EEP ND system
Low risk framework (ship-or-pay/COS)
Anchor Shipper secured
Regina
Gretna
Chicago Flanagan
10
Midcoast Energy Partners IPO
Gas & Liquids Operations
Gas-Focused Operations Liquids-Focused Operations
Dual Funding Sources to Support Growth
Creates Drop-Down Opportunity for MEP
Pa
st
Sta
te
Cu
rre
nt
Sta
te
11
Near-term Actions
1st Drop-Down post-IPO mid-2014 (~$300 – $500mm)
Drop-down remaining interests in gas business
to MEP within five years Nea
r Te
rm
Financial Outlook 2014
*Adjusted EBITDA inclusive of non-controlling interest and other income. EBITDA from non-controlling interest
estimated at $355 million, which is inclusive of ~$30 million of other income associated with AEDC.
**Depreciation includes non-controlling interest component of ~104 million.
Earnings Outlook 2014
1,500
1,050
440
1,600
1,130
480
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Adjusted EBITDA* AdjustedOperating Income
Depreciation**
$ m
illio
ns
Guidance Range
$ p
er u
nit
Distribution Growth
12
500
1,000
1,500
2011 2012 2013 2014e
$ m
illio
ns
Liquids Projects Deliver EBITDA Growth
Based on adjusted EBITDA.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2016e
2.7
%
4.2
%
_
3.8
%
3.6
%
2.1
%
_
Coverage 0.85x-0.95x; Cash Coverage 1.05-1.15x
Volume Assumptions
13
Liquids Volumes (kpbd)
2013 2014e
Lakehead 1,816 2,000– 2,200
North Dakota (1) 236 326 – 346
Mid-Continent 201 200 – 220
Total 2,253 2,526 – 2,766
Natural Gas Volumes (‘ Mmbtu/d)
NGL Production (Bpd)
2013 2014e
Anadarko 949 850 – 900
East Texas 1,153 1,100 – 1,200
North Texas 317 300 – 320
Total 2,419 2,250 – 2,420
2013 2014e
88,346 88,000 – 92,000
Liquids Organic Growth Projects Bolster System Utilization
(1) North Dakota system volumes include physical volumes on North Dakota Trunkline and ship-or-pay volumes on Bakken Expansion. (2013: physical 171
kpbd; 2014 forecasted physical volumes range 230 - 250 kbpd)
Robust Western Canadian supply growth Strong downstream refining demand Liquids projects in-service
Growing Lakehead system deliveries forecast
Forecasted Capital Expenditures
110
200
1,350
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
2014e
$ m
illi
on
s
Maintenance Natural Gas Liquids
Capital Expenditures 2014 Breakdown
1 Eastern Access and US Mainline Expansion capital expenditures are forecasted net of joint funding, with assumed Enbridge Inc. 75% funding; Sandpiper capital
expenditures are forecasted net of 37.5% joint funding from Marathon Petroleum Corp. 2 Represents EEP’s share of Natural Gas capital expenditures of Midcoast Operating, L.P., (“MOLP”) which will be proportionately funded between EEP and Midcoast
Energy Partners, L.P (MEP). Forecast reflects base 61% funding by EEP and 39% by MEP.
Eastern Access1 250
US Mainline Expansions1 160
Sandpiper1 315
Line 6B 75-mile Replacement 20
Liquids Integrity 270
Liquids Other Growth Enhancements 335
Beckville Gas Processing Plant2 70
NG Other Growth Enhancements2 130
Core Maintenance2 $110
Total $1,660
14
Key Takeaways
15
• Top priorities: system integrity, safety and project
execution
• Minimal equity funding requirements
• First drop-down post-IPO to MEP mid-2014
• Coverage strengthens as organic growth projects
enter service
• Distribution growth: targeting 2% to 5% annual growth
• Maintaining investment grade credit rating is a priority
Distribution Coverage and Liquidity
Adjusted Net
Income* 304.5
Cash Distribution
711.2
Dep. - Maint. Capex 224.0
PIKs 128.5
-50
50
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
Distributable Cash Flow As Declared Distribution
$ m
illio
ns
$586.7
$839.7
Full Year Coverage Ratio: 0.70x Available Liquidity
*Unaudited; adjusted results exclude the impact of: (a) additional environmental costs, net of insurance recoveries, associated with the incidents on Lines 14 and 6B; and (b) non-cash,
mark-to-market net gains and losses; among other adjustments. Refer to the Non-GAAP Reconciliation tables presented in the supplemental slides.
Adjusted net income after non-controlling interest and deferred distribution attributable to preferred unitholders.
2,463
1,283
165
228
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
12/31/2013 12/31/2012
$ m
illio
ns
Credit Facilities Cash
$1,511
$2,628
18
Deferred Pref Distribution
58.2
Montreal Gretna
Regina
Hardisty
Kerrobert
Toledo
Buffalo
Edmonton
Houston
Fort McMurray
Cromer
Cushing
Patoka
Chicago/ Flanagan
Sarnia
Superior
Port Arthur
Market Access Programs
19
Westover
+600
kbpd
+300
kbpd
+440
kbpd
+80
kbpd
+300 kpbd
2013
• Line 5 Expansion (+50 kbpd) - EEP
• Line 62 Expansion (+105 kbpd) - EEP
• Line 9A Reversal (+50 kbpd) - ENB
• Toledo Pipeline Partial Twin (+80 kbpd) - ENB
• Seaway Pipeline Expansion (+400 kbpd) - ENB
2014
• Line 6B Replacement (+260 kbpd) - EEP
• Line 67 (+120 kbpd) (1)- EEP
• Line 61 (+160 kbpd) - EEP
• Line 9B Reversal + Expansion (+300 kbpd) - ENB
• Flanagan South Pipeline (+585 kbpd) - ENB
• Seaway Twin + Lateral (+450 kbpd) - ENB
2015
• Line 67 (+230 kbpd) - EEP
• Line 61 (+640 kbpd) - EEP
• Chicago Area Connectivity (+570 kbpd) – EEP
• Southern Access Extension (+300 kbpd) - ENB
• Edmonton to Hardisty (+570 kbpd) - ENB
2016
• Sandpiper Pipeline (+225/+375 kbpd) – EEP
• Line 6B Expansion (+75 kbpd) - EEP
Organic Growth Projects:
Commercially secured
Low risk framework
Long-term contracts
Market Access Programs Bolster Lakehead System Utilization
EEP Lakehead &
North Dakota systems
2014 EEP Project In-Service:
Mainline Expansion(1) ~$0.2B
Capital (3Q)
Line 6B Replacement ~$1.7B
Capital (1Q/3Q)
(1) Line 67 in-service delayed, however, throughput impacts expected to be substantially mitigated by temporary system optimization actions.
Delivering Low-Risk Sustainable Growth
20
(1) Eastern Access and Mainline Expansion liquids expansion projects jointly funded by EEP & ENB. Sandpiper construction funded 37.5% by Marathon Petroleum Corp.
(2) Natural Gas project capital to be proportionately funded between EEP and Midcoast Energy Partners, L.P (MEP).
(3) Line 67 in-service delayed, however, throughput impacts expected to be substantially mitigated by temporary system optimization actions.
Commercial Structure
- Commodity/Volume Sensitive - Take-or-Pay - Cost of Service
Expected Project In-Service Period 1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16
Liquids Projects (1)
Bakken Pipeline Expansion
Bakken Rail
Bakken Access
Eastern Access: Line 6B repl., Line 5, Line 62 exp.
Mainline Expansion: Line 61 and 67 Exp. Phase 1 (3)
Mainline Expansion: Line 61 and 67 Exp. Phase 2
Mainline Expansion: Line 62 Twin (Chicago Connectivity)
Sandpiper
Eastern Access: Line 6B exp. and Tankage
Natural Gas Projects (2)
Ajax Plant
Texas Express NGL Pipeline JV
Beckville Plant
Distribution coverage strengthens as growth projects enter service