fourth quarter 2020 residential market report...

Man

hatt

an

Fourth Quarter 2020Residential Market Report

Halstead is now

BHSID 20298444

BHS 1

BHSID 20298444

Halstead has joined Brown Harris Stevens - which means BHS

now has 2,500 agents and 55 offices in luxury markets across NYC, the Tristate area, the Hamptons, Palm Beach, and Miami.

Historically ranked among the nation’s top residential firms,

in 2019 both firms combined closed 6,000 transactions totaling more than $9 billion.

Simply put, we have more resources than ever to

support our trusted clients.

We are here to serve you, and Brown Harris Stevens has never

been stronger. We look forward to working together.

We’re growing!

BHS 2

BHSID 20327233

Message from Bess Freedman CEO of

We have ushered in a new year, but there is no getting around the fact that Manhattan struggled through 2020. Economic conditions set off by the global Covid pandemic crippled the real estate industry along with many others and we are only beginning to make sense of the collateral damage.

With 90% of the contracts signed after the pandemic shutdown, the fourth quarter 2020 report gives us our first real glimpse of the virus’ impact on pricing. As you can see on page 5, all types and sizes of resale apartments posted a lower average price than 2019’s fourth quarter.

Overall, the average resale price was 3% lower than a year ago, and 8% below the first quarter of 2020. The biggest price declines were seen in larger co-ops, with the three-bedroom and larger average price down 23% compared to a year ago.

While a 3% drop in the average resale price over the past year seems lower than we would expect, there are two reasons this decline isn’t higher. First, is the relative weakness of last year’s fourth quarter, as July transfer tax increases pushed buyers of high-end apartments to close in the first half of the year.

The second reason is that condos, especially larger ones, were a bigger percentage of the resale market than a year ago. Last year, condos accounted for 34% of resales, compared to 41% this quarter. Condos typically sell for roughly 15-20% more than co-ops, so if they account for a higher percentage of sales the average price will be pushed higher. Add in the fact that the average condo resale apartment was 5% bigger than a year ago, and you can see why the overall average price didn’t fall further than 3%.

With inventory still at high levels, there will be more price adjustments needed to attract buyers. Please keep in mind that those adjustments will depend on the supply/demand relationship for each specific category of apartments. In our highly segmented market, you cannot apply a single COVID-19 adjustment percentage to every home for sale. As I always say, not all square feet are created equal.

I highly recommend you look at our monthly inventory reports (you can find the latest one here), which present the supply data by type and size. The higher the months’ supply of apartments, the more likely further price declines are needed to entice buyer. The negotiability factor will only create more purchase opportunities in the coming months. Manhattan has come back from crisis before and all indicators show we will do so again. It will take time but the market, much like the city itself, is resilient.

http://media.bhsusa.com/pdf/InventoryReport_BHS_December2020.pdf

BHS 3

Manhattan All Cooperatives and Condominiums*

Q4 2020

The average Manhattan apartment price fell to $1,792,629 in the fourth quarter, a 6% decline compared to a year ago. The average price fell more for co-ops than condos over the past year, led by steep declines in larger units. The substantial decline in the condo average price from the third quarter, was due to an abnormally high number of super-luxury new development closings inflating that quarter’s figure. While the total number of closings rebounded from the third quarter, they remained 29% lower than 2019’s fourth quarter.

Average and Median Sales Price

$1,9

00,0

71

$1,8

87,2

82

$1,7

72,3

01

$2,15

8,33

1

$1,7

92,6

29

$1,0

40,0

00

$1,0

80,0

00

$995

,000

$1,0

83,7

50

$1,0

44,3

75

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

4th Q 19 1st Q 20 2nd Q 20 3rd Q 20 4th Q 20

Average Sale Price Median Sale Price

2,65

8

2,46

6

1,710

1,556

1,894

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000


Average and Median Sales Price Number of Closings

Cooperative Average and Median Sales Price Condominium Average and Median Sales Price

$1,2

18,2

57

$1,3

03,2

88

$1,19

6,13

8

$1,16

4,30

9

$1,0

74,0

41

$790

,000

$815

,000

$770

,000

$776

,500

$742

,500

$500,000

$750,000

$1,000,000

$1,250,000

$1,500,000



$2,7

52,7

72

$2,6

36,7

41

$2,5

56,9

66

$3,3

55,10

1

$2,5

32,5

39

$1,5

75,0

00

$1,6

48,0

00

$1,6

48,7

50

$1,7

30,6

65

$1,6

30,0

00

$1,000,000

$1,750,000

$2,500,000

$3,250,000

$4,000,000



* Includes new development and resale apartments. 4Q20 data is preliminary and subject to revision in future reports. Data from the prior four quarters has been revised to include sales recorded after our initial reports were released.

BHS 4

$3,5

18,6

75

$3,2

06,9

64

$3,0

84,9

76 $5

,202

,238

$3,5

33,8

61

$1,6

99,7

76

$1,8

58,5

14

$1,8

20,9

60

$2,4

12,5

00

$2,3

00,0

00

$0

$2,000,000

$4,000,000

$6,000,000

$8,000,000



Manhattan New Developments

While the average new development closing price was little changed from a year ago, the median price rose sharply. The big decline in average price from the prior quarter can be attributed to 19 220 Central Park South closings in the third quarter, which had an average price over $31 million. With only a few closings in that building during the fourth quarter, it’s not surprising that the average price fell sharply. South of 14th Street remained the busiest new development market, accounting for 41.2% of fourth quarter closings.


Manhattan New Developments

Q4 2020

Sales by Area

10.5%

40.9%

5.1%

18.4%

15.1%

10.0%

4Q19 4Q20

East Side

West Side

Midtown

Downtown (34th -14th St)

Downtown (South of 14th St)

Upper Manhattan

12.0%

41.2%

9.9%

13.7%

7.7%

15.5%

$2,0

79

$2,0

25

$1,9

94

$2,3

50

$2,12

0

$1,900

$2,100

$2,300

$2,500

$2,700


Average Price Per Square Foot

BHS 5

Manhattan Resale Cooperatives and Condominiums

Q4 2020

Resale apartment prices averaged $1,435,177 in the fourth quarter, which was 3% lower than a year ago, and 8% below the first quarter of 2020. The median resale price fell 4% from 2019’s fourth quarter, to $910,000.


The average co-op resale price of $1,077,841 was 13% lower than the fourth quarter of 2019. All sizes of co-ops saw their average price decline over the past year, led by a 23% drop in three-bedroom and larger units.

Cooperative Average Sales Price

Studio 1-Bedroom 2-Bedroom 3+Bedroom All

4th Q 19 $478,677 $738,592 $1,333,714 $3,160,721 $1,245,774

1st Q 20 $476,892 $744,094 $1,438,077 $3,096,497 $1,320,638

2nd Q 20 $461,485 $705,945 $1,352,350 $3,119,274 $1,211,232

3rd Q 20 $474,391 $718,279 $1,337,346 $2,778,645 $1,159,850

4th Q 20 $419,380 $699,025 $1,243,217 $2,447,421 $1,077,841

A shift towards larger apartments brought the overall average condo price slightly higher than a year ago, to $1,944,458. However, each size category posted a lower average price than 2019’s fourth quarter. It may seem odd, but the average price for all resale condos can go up when each size group goes down, provided larger apartments account for a higher percentage of the closings.

Condominium Average Sales Price

Studio 1-Bedroom 2-Bedroom 3+Bedroom All

4th Q 19 $673,840 $1,020,233 $1,880,620 $4,368,342 $1,931,646

1st Q 20 $640,074 $999,996 $1,991,715 $4,868,460 $2,012,412

2nd Q 20 $614,429 $1,065,015 $1,777,982 $5,052,636 $2,039,317

3rd Q 20 $676,182 $995,830 $1,933,034 $4,852,116 $2,096,349

4th Q 20 $579,156 $969,262 $1,710,090 $4,258,001 $1,944,458

$1,4

77,7

60

$1,5

53,3

39

$1,4

89,6

14

$1,4

96,19

9

$1,4

35,17

7

$950

,000

$965

,000

$915

,000

$932

,500

$910

,000

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000



BHS 6

126

135

144

153

132

100

125

150

175


Average and Median Sales Price Per Square Foot

Apartments sold in the fourth quarter spent an average of 132 days on the market, up 5% from a year ago, but down sharply from the prior quarter. Buyers paid 95.0% of an apartment’s last asking price last quarter, down from 96.4% one year ago.

Loft prices averaged $1,404 per square foot, which was 4% higher than the fourth quarter of 2019.

$1,3

44 $1

,504

$1,3

54

$1,4

16

$1,4

04

$1,2

32

$1,3

29

$1,3

00

$1,3

86

$1,3

92

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000


Average PPSF Median PPSF

Manhattan Resale Cooperatives and Condominiums

Q4 2020

96.4% 96.5% 96.3%

94.8%95.0%

94.0%

95.0%

96.0%

97.0%

98.0%


Average Days on the Market Selling vs. Last Asking Price

Lofts

BHS 7

18.6%

24.9%

9.0%

15.4%

11.9%

20.2%

Upper ManhattanGenerally north of 96th Street on the East Side, 110th Street on the West Side pages 18-19

West SideGenerally 59th Street to 110th Street, Hudson River to west of Fifth Ave. pages 10-11

East SideGenerally 59th Street to 96th Street, Fifth Ave. to the East River pages 8-9

Midtown34th Street to 59th Street, East River to the Hudson River pages 12-13

Downtown34th Street to 14th Street pages 14-15

DowntownSouth of 14th Street pages 16-17

Percentage of Resales in Manhattan

Q4 2020

BHS7

BHS 8

All apartment sizes posted

a lower median resale price

compared to 2019’s fourth

quarter, led by a 10% drop in three-bedroom and larger

apartments.

The average co-op price per

room fell 24% over the past

year for prewar apartments.

Resale Apartments Q4 2020

Generally 59th St. to 96th St., Fifth Ave. to the East River

East

Sid

eBHSID 19910492

BHS 9

BHSID 20298460

$359

,266

$272

,755

$274

,791

$233

,341

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

Prewar Postwar

4th Q 19 4th Q 20

Studio 1-Bedroom 2-Bedroom 3+Bedroom

Percent of Sales

4th Q 19 12% 37% 29% 22%

4th Q 20 13% 38% 26% 23%

Median Price

4th Q 19 $430,000 $700,000 $1,439,500 $2,855,000

4th Q 20 $400,000 $692,410 $1,320,859 $2,562,500

% Change -7% -1% -8% -10%

CooperativeAverage price per room

Condominium Average price per square foot

BHSWEB#20178493

Q4 2020 East Side Resale Apartments

$1,3

52

$1,3

71

$300

$600

$900

$1,200

$1,500

4th Q 19 4th Q 20

BHS 10

Wes

t Sid

eThe median price fell 5% over the past year for both

the one-bedroom, and three-

bedroom and larger categories.

Both prewar and postwar

co-ops experienced a 9% decline in their average price per room from 2019’s

fourth quarter. BHSID 20325652


Generally 59th St. to 110th St., Hudson River to West of Fifth Ave.

BHS 11

BHSID 20035249


Percent of Sales

4th Q 19 10% 39% 33% 18%

4th Q 20 10% 31% 37% 22%

Median Price

4th Q 19 $455,000 $785,000 $1,375,000 $2,625,000

4th Q 20 $450,000 $745,000 $1,355,000 $2,500,000

% Change -1% -5% -1% -5%



Q4 2020 West Side Resale Apartments

$303

,912

$280

,664

$276

,320

$256

,585

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

Prewar Postwar

4th Q 19 4th Q 20

$1,4

40

$1,4

34

$300

$600

$900

$1,200

$1,500

4th Q 19 4th Q 20

BHS 12

Mid

tow

nOne-bedrooms were the only

size category to see their

median price rise from a year ago in Midtown.

The average condo price per

square foot was 13% lower compared to

2019’ fourth quarter. BHSID 20263638


34th St to 59th St, East River to the Hudson River

BHS 13

BHSID 20293761


Percent of Sales

4th Q 19 21% 44% 26% 9%

4th Q 20 19% 48% 24% 9%

Median Price

4th Q 19 $427,000 $730,650 $1,300,000 $2,500,000

4th Q 20 $350,000 $792,500 $1,135,000 $2,495,000

% Change -18% 8% -13% 0%



Q4 2020 Midtown Resale Apartments

$225

,163

$241

,405

$223

,785

$205

,747

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

Prewar Postwar

4th Q 19 4th Q 20

$1,4

43

$1,2

54

$300

$600

$900

$1,200

$1,500

4th Q 19 4th Q 20

BHS 14

Only studio apartments had a

higher median price than a year ago.

While the median price fell

32% from 2019’s fourth quarter for three-bedroom

and larger units, there were

very few closings in this

category, so this decline should

be viewed with caution.


34th St. to 14th St.

Dow

ntow

nBHSID 20334039

BHS 15

BHSID 20558810

$317

,885

$278

,364

$286

,759

$242

,449

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

Prewar Postwar

4th Q 19 4th Q 20


Percent of Sales

4th Q 19 19% 47% 26% 8%

4th Q 20 19% 50% 22% 9%

Median Price

4th Q 19 $516,000 $850,000 $1,850,000 $4,100,000

4th Q 20 $555,000 $849,000 $1,732,500 $2,775,000

% Change 8% 0% -6% -32%



$1,5

47

$1,5

42

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

4th Q 19 4th Q 20

34th St. to 14th St.

Q4 2020 Downtown Resale Apartments

BHS 16

Two-bedrooms were the

only size category with a

higher median price than a year ago.

The average condo price

per square foot fell 2% over the past year to $1,567.


South of 14th St.

Dow

ntow

nBHSID 20338633

BHS 17

BHSID 20472136


Percent of Sales

4th Q 19 16% 39% 31% 14%

4th Q 20 15% 39% 31% 15%

Median Price

4th Q 19 $621,500 $864,500 $1,572,250 $3,800,000

4th Q 20 $520,000 $831,250 $1,630,000 $3,800,000

% Change -16% -4% 4% 0%



South of 14th St.

Q4 2020 Downtown Resale Apartments

$331

,264

$277

,077

$325

,302

$274

,937

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

Prewar Postwar

4th Q 19 4th Q 20

$1,6

01

$1,5

67

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

4th Q 19 4th Q 20

BHS 18

The average condo price of

$859 per square foot was down

4% from last year’s fourth quarter.

Prices fell for both prewar and postwar co-ops compared

to a year ago.


Generally North of 96th Street on the East Side, and 110th St. on the West Side

Upp

er M

anha

ttan

BHSID 19808203

BHS 19

BHSID 20074311


Percent of Sales

4th Q 19 6% 34% 41% 19%

4th Q 20 7% 30% 42% 21%

Median Price

4th Q 19 $319,500 $425,000 $695,000 $857,500

4th Q 20 $344,760 $399,500 $685,000 $945,000

% Change 8% -6% -1% 10%



Q4 2020 Upper Manhattan Resale Apartments

$134

,449

$145

,628

$117

,052 $137

,730

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

Prewar Postwar

4th Q 19 4th Q 20

$896

$859

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

4th Q 19 4th Q 20

Contact Us

©2020 by Brown Harris Stevens. All Rights Reserved. This information may not be copied, used or distributed without Brown Harris Stevens’ consent. While information is believed true, no guaranty is made of accuracy.

BHS Residential Management 212.508.7200Paul J. Herman, PresidentResidential Management LLCBHS Development Marketing445 Park Avenue, 10th FloorNew York, NY 10022 212.521.5757Stephen Kliegerman,President, Development MarketingBrooklyn Heights129 Montague StreetBrooklyn, NY 11201 718.875.1289Christopher Thomas, EVPManaging Director of Sales

Downtown130 Fifth AvenueNew York, NY 10011212.906.0500Stephen Klym, EVPManaging Director of SalesEast Side445 Park AvenueNew York, NY 10022 212.906.9200Bess Freedman, CEOHall F. Willkie, PresidentRuth McCoy, EVPManaging Director of SalesNeil M. Laurine, EVPManaging Director of Sales

Park Slope100 Seventh AvenueBrooklyn, NY 11215 718.230.5500Camille Logan, EVPManaging Director of Sales

Tribeca43 North Moore StreetNew York, NY 10013 212.452.4500Stephen Klym, EVPManaging Director of Sales

West Side1926 BroadwayNew York, NY 10023 212.588.5600Kevin Kovesci, EVPManaging Director of Sales

ManhattanEast Side770 Lexington AvenueNew York, NY 10065212.317.7800

West Side408 Columbus AvenueNew York, NY 10024212.769.3000

Village831 BroadwayNew York, NY 10003212.381.6500

Soho451 West BroadwayNew York, NY 10012212.381.4200

Harlem2169 Frederick Douglass BoulevardNew York, NY 10026212.381.2570

Washington Heights819 West 187th StreetNew York, NY 10033212.381.2452

BronxRiverdale Johnson3531 Johnson AvenueRiverdale, NY 10463718.878.1700

BrooklynBrooklyn Heights122 Montague StreetBrooklyn, NY 11201718.613.2000

Park Slope160 7th AvenueBrooklyn, NY 11215718.878.1960

Cobble Hill162 Court StreetBrooklyn, NY 11201718.613.2020

Bedford Stuyvesant1191 Bedford Avenue,Brooklyn, NY 11216718.878.1750

South Slope1214 8th AvenueBrooklyn, NY 11215718.878.1888

Fort Greene725 Fulton StreetBrooklyn, NY 1127718.613.2800

Bay Ridge8324 4th AvenueBrooklyn, NY 11209718.878.1880

QueensLong Island City47-12 Vernon BoulevardQueens, NY 1110718.878.1800

Forest Hills108-23 Ascan AvenueForest Hills, NY 11375718.520.0303

Hudson ValleyHudson526 Warren StreetHudson, NY 12534518.828.0181

ConnecticutDarien671 Boston Post RoadDarien, CT 06820203.655.1418

New Canaan - Elm Street183 Elm StreetNew Canaan, CT 06840203.966.7800

New Canaan - South Avenue6 South AvenueNew Canaan, CT 06840203,966.7772

Rowayton140 Rowayton AvenueRowayton, CT 06853203.655.1418

Greenwich125 Mason StreetGreenwich, CT 06830203.869.8100

Stamford1099 High Ridge RoadStamford, CT 06905203.329.8801

Westport379 Post Road EastWestport, CT 06880203.221.0666

Wilton21 River RoadWilton, CT 06897203.762.8118

New JerseyHoboken200 Washington StreetHoboken, NJ 07030201.478.6700

Montclair635 Valley Road,Montclair, NJ 07030973.744.6033

HamptonsEast Hampton2 Newtown LaneEast Hampton, NY 11937631.324.6100

CorporateCommercial Sales770 Lexington AvenueNew York, NY 10065212.381.3208

Development Marketing445 Park AvenueNew York, NY 10022212.521.5703

Global Services770 Lexington AvenueNew York, NY 10065212.381.6521

Management Company770 Lexington Avenue, 7th FloorNew York, NY, 10065212.508.7272

Halstead is now

Prepared by Gregory Heym, Chief Economist, Brown Harris Stevens.

fourth quarter 2020 residential market report...

Documents