fr 5 techoptionsresefficiency.ppt -...

2010 Energy Forecasting Week ‐ Las Vegas, NevadaForecasters Forum/EFG MeetingForecasters Forum/EFG Meeting

April 29‐30, 2010

SAE Technology Option Framework & Residential Efficiency Modeling

Andy SukenikyItron, Inc.

Long‐term Forecasting Challenges

Forecasters are often faced with the challenge of properly incorporating Efficiency trends into their models.

Sources driving these Efficiency trends include:

> Federal Efficiency Standards

> Naturally Occurring Efficiency Gains

> Stimulus Program Funding (Federal Tax Credits)> Stimulus Program Funding (Federal Tax Credits)

> DSM Program Impacts

The Technology Option Spreadsheets can be used to constructThe Technology Option Spreadsheets can be used to construct alternative end‐use equipment scenarios to isolate the relative impacts of efficiency savings from the overall model result.

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Technology Option Spreadsheets Update

In 2009, the Residential Technology Option Spreadsheets were reconfigured into a centralized framework, facilitating efficient incorporation of customized appliance‐level use per customer indices into SAE Forecast Models.

Enhancements Include:

> Addition of the Master Technology Spreadsheet, a centralized gy p ,interface that directs data flows and triggers Use Per Customer (UPC) model calculations for all end‐uses.

> Broadened Scope for Share and Efficiency Inputs> Broadened Scope for Share and Efficiency Inputs

> Improved linkage to MetrixND Projects containing SAE Models.


Technology Option Framework Data Flows


Master Technology Option Spreadsheet

Master Technology Spreadsheet enables the user to:> Input customized Economic and end‐use Data

> Specify Share, Efficiency, and Purchase Share Models for each end‐use.

> View Technology‐level detail supporting EIA Regional Residential Marginal Efficiencies for each end‐use.

> Construct and Implement customized Use per Customer indices into SAE Models.

The Master Technology Option Spreadsheet is segmented into four sets of tabs.

> Utility Data Tab (1), End‐use Tabs (17), Output Tabs (2), Chart Tabs (4)

Utilit D t T b bl th t i t t it ifiUtility Data Tab enables the user to input territory specific:> Households, Real Electric Prices, Shares


End‐Use Tabs

Model Form-Share Model-Efficiency Model-Purchase Share Model

Comparison Graphs-Share -Efficiency -Use per Customer Index

Action Buttons-Import Efficiency -View Technology Options-Restore Default


Output Tabs

Action Buttons

Use Per Customer Indices for each appliance.

-Export Results -Open MetrixND


Chart Tabs

XHeat XCool

XOther XSAE


End‐Use Calculation Spreadsheets

Purchase Share Model Form

-Purchase Share Option-Discount Rate-Time Horizon for DOC Tech Option Data

-Efficiency-Purchase Share-DSM Discount %-Capital Cost-Discounted Operating Cost

Action Buttons-Return to Master Spreadsheet-Save Tech Option InputsRestore Default DSM Data p g-Restore Default DSM Data

Comparison Graphs-Purchase Share-Average Efficiency


Use per Customer Index Calculation

The Central Air Conditioner Use per Customer index is computed with the following equation:

⎞⎜⎜⎛

⎟⎟⎠

⎞⎜⎜⎝

⎛

××=by

y

y

ybyy Share

EffShare

IndexStructuralUPCCACIndex

> Where y indexes the year and by the base year

⎠⎜⎜⎝ by

by

Eff

The UPC trends are driven through time by Share, Appliance Efficiency, and Thermal Efficiency trends.

The Technology Spreadsheets contain several model designed to customize the Share and Appliance Efficiency trends.

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Model FormThe Model Form enables the user to: > Calibrate EIA Regional Share and Efficiency trends into territory specific

information.> Construct alternative equipment efficiency scenarios> Construct alternative equipment efficiency scenarios

Base Year-Define the reference year for the Share and UEC Input values

Share Model Options-Specify Appliance Share Level and Trend

Efficiency Model Options-Define the Base UEC -Select Efficiency Model Option

Purchase Share Options-Select Purchase Share Model Option

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-Define Consumer Purchase Decision assumptions.

Share Model OptionsEIA. The EIA option implements the historical and forecasted Regional Share.

Bench The Bench option scales the EIA Regional Shares to a Target Base Share andBench. The Bench option scales the EIA Regional Shares to a Target Base Share, and optionally, adjust the EIA’s forecasted share path trend using a linear adder. Model option parameters include:

> Base Year

Utility History. The Utility History implements the share path input for the selected

> Base Share> ShareTrend Adder

appliance on the ‘UtilityData’ tab for the historical period (up to and including base year). In the forecast period, the EIA’s Regional Share trend is applied to extend the historical series forward. The Share trend may be adjusted using the ShareTrend Adder parameter. Model option parameters include:Adder parameter. Model option parameters include:

> Base Year> ShareTrend Adder

Utility History/Forecast. The Utility History/Forecast option implements the share

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path input for the selected appliance on the ‘Utility Data’ tab for both the historical and forecast period.

Efficiency Model OptionsEIA. The EIA option uses the historical and forecasted Regional Efficiency data provided by the EIA. p y

Frozen. The Frozen option holds the base year efficiency level constant throughout the forecast period. Modelthroughout the forecast period. Model Option parameters include:

> Base Year

Technical Potential. The Technical Potential option assumes all consumers from theTechnical Potential. The Technical Potential option assumes all consumers from the year 2006 forward purchase the most efficient technology option available on the market.

Stock Accounting. The Stock Accounting Model option enables the implementation of customized marginal efficiency data and decay and replacement parameters. Model Option Parameters include:

> Appliance Life ‐‐ (Average & Standard Deviation)> Decay & Replacement Rate

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> Decay & Replacement Rate

Purchase Share Model OptionsEIA. The EIA option implements the technology‐level purchase shares implicit in the EIA regional purchases data. g p

Model. The Model option uses a Logit function to compute the purchase shares for each technology option as a function of Life Cycle Cost. Model Option parameters gy p y p pinclude:

> Capital Cost % Discount> Real Electric Price> Discount Rate> Time Horizon (for DOC calculation)

Utility Specific. The Utility Specific option implements customized purchase shares f h b f d d l l dfrom the base year forward. Model Option parameters include:

> Utility Specific Purchase Share

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Efficiency Detail ‐‐ Pacific CAC

The Residential SAE Technology Option Spreadsheets display the technology option marginal purchase share and efficiency assumptions that underlie the EIA Baseline marginal efficiencies.

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More Efficient More Efficient

Marginal Efficiency Calculations ‐‐ Pacific CAC

The Regional Marginal Efficiency for Central Air Conditioners can be computed by taking a weighted average across SEER ratings, using the purchase shares as the weights.

2010 Marginal Efficiency Calculation

33% * 13 +33% 13 +17% * 14 +45% * 15 +4% * 23

= 14.3 SEER

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More Efficient More Efficient

Marginal Efficiency ‐‐ Pacific CAC

The Weighted Average of Technology Options Efficiencies represents the Marginal Efficiencies

inputs to the Stock Accounting Model.

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Stock Accounting Model

In the Technology Option Spreadsheets, to accurately capture the overall impact of the Marginal Efficiencies, an “abbreviated” stock accounting model is usedstock accounting model is used.

A decay and replacement algorithm is used with the older vintages of stock decaying more quickly than the newer vintages.

Adjustable Parameters included in the Stock Accounting Model include:include:

> Appliance Life> Decay Rate> Replacement Rate

The Default values for these Parameters were reverse engineered to tie the SA model results in closely with EIA

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engineered to tie the SA model results in closely with EIA Sales/Customer estimates for each appliance.

Average Efficiency ‐‐ Pacific CAC

Central Air Conditioner Default Appliance Life = 18 Years

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Appliance Efficiency‐‐ Alternative Equipment Scenarios

Alternative efficiencies scenarios can be constructed to isolate the energy impacts associated with different levels of efficiency gain.

Equipment Efficiency Scenarios include:

1. Frozen Average Efficiency (2005)

2. Standard

3 Baseline3. Baseline

4. Stimulus Funding

5. Technical Potential

6. DSM Scenario

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Scenario 1: Frozen Efficiency CAC

Saturation

Frozen Efficiency Scenario -Hold 2005 Efficiency Levels constant throughout the

Efficiency

-Hold 2005 Efficiency Levels constant throughout the forecast period.

Model Option SettingsBase Year = 2005-Base Year = 2005

-Efficiency Model Option = Frozen

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Scenario 2: Standard Efficiency CAC

Standards Efficiency Scenario -Assume all consumers purchase the least efficiency available market option (13 SEER CAC) Model Option Settings

-Base Year = 2005-Efficiency Model Option = Stock Accounting-Purchase Share Model Option = Utility Specific-CT_AIR#1 (13 SEER) Purchase Share = 100%

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Scenario 3: Baseline Efficiency CAC

Baseline Scenario-EIA Purchase Share Path with the exception of years 2009-2010, where the funding from the Stimulus Package shifted

Model Option Settings-Base Year = 2005-Efficiency Model Option = Stock Accounting-Purchase Share Model Option = Utility SpecificU EIA P h Sh f ll t

g gpurchases to higher efficiency options. -Use EIA Purchase Shares for all years, except

2009 & 2010. For 2009-2010, apply 2008 purchase shares.

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Scenario 4: Stimulus Efficiency CAC

Stimulus Efficiency Scenario -Use EIA Regional Purchase Shares, which reflect the impact from the Federal Tax Credit (30% up to a lifetime cap of $1500)

Model Option Settings-Base Year = 2005-Efficiency Model Option = Stock Accounting-Purchase Share Model Option = EIAPurchase Share Model Option EIA

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Scenario 5: Technical Potential CAC

Model Option Settings-Base Year = 2005-Efficiency Model Option = Technical Potential-Equivalent to Utility Specific with 100% Purchase Share on most efficient option.

Technical Potential Scenario -Assume all consumers purchase the most efficiency available market option (23 SEER CAC)

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CAC Efficiency Savings Impacts (Stacked)

Green Transparent Area represents the technical potential for DSM savings.

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Purchase Share Model Framework

Discounted Operating Cost Raw Inputs-Base UEC-Real Electric Price-Discount Rate (d)-Time Horizon for DOC Calculation (T)

Capital Cost Raw Inputs-Raw Capital Cost by Technology Option (EIA)-DSM Rebates

( )

Discounted Operating Cost Calculation Inputs

oy

oy

oy

icPriceRealElectrUECostFirstYearC ×=Capital Cost Calculation yyy

( )⎟⎟⎠

⎞⎜⎜⎝

⎛ +−+= T

dddMINHurdleRate

T

,)1/(11

Di d O i C C l l i

Capital Cost Calculation

( )[ ]oy

oy

oy

DSMCostRawCapitaltCapitalCos %1−×=

Discounted Operating Cost CalculationHurdleRateCostYearFirstCostOperatingDiscounted o

yoy

×=

Life Cycle Cost Calculation

Purchase Share Logit Model

Life Cycle Cost Calculationoy

oy

oy

ostOperatingCDiscountedCostCapitalostLifeCycleC +=

Hurdle Rate is the multiplier for the first year operating cost

computed based on the Discount

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g

[ ]( )[ ]( )∑

=

+

+= O

k

oyo

oyoo

y

CostLifeCyclebc

CostLifeCyclebcarePurchaseSh

11

1

exp

exp

pRate and Time Horizon

(= 6 in this example)

2010 Purchase Share Model Data Inputs

Capital Cost vs

Efficiency

First Year Operating Cost vs

Efficiency

Solid Bars -- BaselineShadow Bars –w Stimulus

Logit Model Purchase SharesBaseline Scenario Stimulus Scenario

g

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DSM Scenario Assumptions and Option Settings

For this example, the DSM Scenario assumes the tax credit funding subsidizing the purchase of higher efficiency Central Air Conditioners is extended throughout the forecast period.

The Purchase Share Option is set to ‘Model’

The DSM % Rebate is extended through the balance of the forecast period.

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DSM Scenario LCC and Purchase Shares – CAC

Stimulus Scenario-Funding 2009-2010

DSM Scenario-Funding 2009-2030

-Funding 2009-2010

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Scenario 6: DSM Efficiency CAC UPC Index

Model Option SettingsModel Option Settings-Base Year = 2005-Efficiency Model Option = Stock Accounting-Purchase Share Model Option = Model-Capital Cost % 2010 discount of 20% on the two most efficient options is extended forward throughout the Forecast Period.

DSM Scenario -Assumes funding levels from the federal tax credit are extended through the balance of the forecast period.

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CAC Efficiency Savings Impacts (Stacked)

Blue Area represents the savings impacts achieved as a result of the

DSM funding extended through 2030.

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Incorporating Efficiency Scenariosinto SAE

Estimate the SAE model using actual historical efficiency to define XCool, XHeat and XOther coefficients.

> The SAE model coefficients will adjust to tie the UPC indices into hl S l lyour Monthly Sales values.

Lock the coefficients from the above model and run the alternative equipment efficiencies through the modelequipment efficiencies through the model

Taking the difference in Model Results across scenarios:

> Ties UPC Indices into the Billing Data> Ties UPC Indices into the Billing Data

> Spreads Annual Efficiency Savings to Months based on:• Weather Variables for heating and cooling end‐uses

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• Monthly Usage Fractions for the base load end‐uses.

Summary

SAE model structure provides the ability to identify end‐use p y yfactors that drive energy use.

Stock Accounting Models incorporate saturation and efficiency trends at the individual appliance level, supporting the forecast with a rich set of customized information.

I i Al i E i Effi i S i iIncorporating Alternative Equipment Efficiency Scenarios into the SAE framework can isolate efficiency impacts from the model results and provide a measure of incremental energy savings associated with Appliance Efficiency DSM programs.

Representing the UPC indices directly is an alternative approach ki d l dj f DSM

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to making a post‐model adjustment for DSM.

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