fracking forum: risks and rewards
DESCRIPTION
FRACKING FORUM: Risks and Rewards. Monday October 6th , 2014. Paul E. Belanger, Ph.D . Moderator http://denverclimatestudygroup.com / - fracking tab [email protected]. It’s about Energy and our Future. Or live – i.e. NIMBY Or who you work for - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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FRACKING FORUM: Risks and Rewards
Paul E. Belanger, Ph.D.
Moderator
http://denverclimatestudygroup.com/ - fracking tab
Monday October 6th, 2014
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http://img.deseretnews.com/images/top/main/26657/26657.jpg
Or live – i.e. NIMBY
Or who you work for
Or what party you affiliate yourself
Or whether your retired or not
Or your age
Or other factors
It’s about Energy and our Future
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There are Energy Impacts:
Coal:
• 2x CO2
• Particulates
• Mercury/other
• Water contamination at waste sites
• Fugitive methane at mining sites – never discussed?
Natural Gas:
• Earthquakes from injection wells
• Water use
• Water table contamination?
• Fugitive methane
• Proximity of drilling operations
Wind/solar:
• Areal footprint
• Bird kills
• Reliability issues
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What is Colorado doing about it?
• Colorado is one of 4 states (WY, CA, OH) regulating/reducing emissions
• Colorado mandates operators address all wells within 1500’ of well-path
• Colorado mandates operators address 4 water wells within ½ mile of newly drilled well
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At issue is climate change
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http://www.texog.com/blog/2012/07/23/shale-boom-helps-us-achieve-largest-co2-
reductions-in-the-world/
U.S. CO2 Emissions have come
down
http://www.c2es.org/facts-figures/us-emissions/electric-power
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*400 ppm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keeling_Curve
Lest we forget: CO2 is still going up
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http://tamino.wordpress.com/2013/03/22/global-temperature-change-the-big-picture/
…and so are temperatures
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What about Methane?
http://clathrates.blogspot.com/2012/04/threat-of-methane-release-from.html
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html
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Drew Nelson; edf.org
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http://www.tclabz.com/2011/03/11/steo-eia-short-term-energy-outlook-highlights/
U.S. Energy Consumption
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil-fuel_phase-out
U.S. Energy Consumption
Note that renewable sources surpassed nuclear recently
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At issue
Resolving our energy future and climate issues involves:
• Economic issues
• Reducing emissions
• But also mitigation (Biochar/BECCS)
• Educating ourselves
• About energy
• About climate
• Building trust
• Dialogue
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At issue
…the low priority given by the public
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March 2014 Gallup poll – hard pressed to make changes when climate change not of
great concern
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Views on Global warming by whether you’re a Republican, Democrat or Independent
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THANK YOU
With that our speakers:
John Harpole
Harv Teitelbaum
Paul E. Belanger, Ph.D.
http://denverclimatestudygroup.com/ - fracking tab
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http://denverclimatestudygroup.com/
Click on Fracking – excerpts displayed below
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EXTRAS #1
For your information as well as for answering questions from the audience
Fossil-fuel phase-out:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil-fuel_phase-out
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil-fuel_phase-out
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil-fuel_phase-out
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil-fuel_phase-out
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil-fuel_phase-out
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http://oceanlink.island.net/ONews/ONews7/methane.html
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil-fuel_phase-out
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil-fuel_phase-out
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil-fuel_phase-out
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EXTRAS #2
Variously related slides
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Drivers: aka forcings, i.e. causes
http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/
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Where’s the heat going?Answer – the ocean
http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47
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Climate Changes from Ocean Sediment Cores, since 5 Ma. Milankovitch Cycles
41K 100 K
3.0Ma4.0Ma 2.0Ma 1.0Ma5.0Ma 0
When CO2 levels get below ~400-600 ppm Orbital parameters become more important than CO2
the last time inferred temperatures will have been this high – once
equilibrium is reached, will have been 3-5 million years ago or more
*we are
now about here
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Correcting for El Niño and La Niña Influences
Shows the Global Warming Trend More Clearly
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How to Abuse Statistics: Choose a Short Time
Interval and Ignore the Long-Term Trend
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http://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/ghg_report/ghg_overview.cfm
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EXTRAS #3
From Drew Nelson: Natural gas symposium 9/25/2014
http://denverclimatestudygroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Drew-Nelson-
slides20140925.pdf
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Drew Nelson; edf.org
From Natural Gas conference 9/25/2014
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NEED to:
• Reduce risks
• Reduce emissions
• Rebuild public trust
It’s in everyone’s interest to minimize risks and emissons
And Potential Risks:
• Ground and Surface water contamination
• Induced Earthquakes injecting waste water
• Increased GHG emissions
• Local impacts: noise, truck traffic, lights, etc.
….if NOT done correctly
Modified from Drew Nelson; edf.org
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Drew Nelson; edf.org
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of ~615 coal plants
Comment: we’ve reduced the output of about 25% of our coal plants but offset that with about and equivalent increase or worse in equivalent GHG emissions Drew Nelson; edf.org
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EXTRAS #4 - other
WG1; AR5 chapter 8http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/#.UuAsbxDn9hE
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Table 8.7 | GWP and GTP with and without inclusion of climate–carbon feedbacks (cc fb) in response to emissions of the indicated non-CO2 gases (climate-carbon feedbacks in response to the reference gas CO2 are always
included).
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Table 8.7 | GWP and GTP with and without inclusion of climate–carbon feedbacks (cc fb) in response to emissions of the indicated non-CO2 gases (climate-carbon feedbacks in response to the reference gas CO2 are always
included).
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Table 8.7 | GWP and GTP with and without inclusion of climate–carbon feedbacks (cc fb) in response to emissions of the indicated non-CO2 gases (climate-carbon feedbacks in response to the reference gas CO2 are always
included).
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J. K. Shoemaker, 1 D. P. Schrag, 1 * M. J. Molina, 2,V. Ramanathan 3, 4, Science 9/25/2014
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http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/climate/greenhouse_effect_gases.html