fragmentation cohesion & uncertainty · 1 fragmentation cohesion & uncertainty simon...

1

FRAGMENTATION

COHESION

& UNCERTAINTY

SIMON ATKINSON

CHIEF KNOWLEDGE OFFICER, IPSOS

@SIMONMATKINSON

2

MEGA

TRENDS

3

POPULATION

CHANGE

UNEVEN

ECONOMIC

GROWTH

GLOBALISATION

AND MIGRATION

CLIMATE

CHANGE AND

SUSTAINABILITY

TECHNOLOGICAL

CHANGE

POLITICAL

CHANGE AND

MULTI POLARITY

4

18,000+PEOPLE

5

23COUNTRIES

IN

6

CRISIS OF

THE ELITES

OPTIMISM

DIVIDE

GENERATION

STRAINSRISE AND RISE

OF TRADITION

BATTLE FOR

ATTENTIONSIMPLICITY

AND CONTROL

UNCERTAINTY IS

THE NEW NORMAL

OUR EIGHT TRENDS FOR 2017

HEALTHIER

WORLD

7

THE ELITES

#1 THE CRISIS OF

9

CRISIS OF THE ELITES?

My government does not prioritise the interests of people like me 71%

Economy rigged for advantage of the rich and powerful 76%

Feel like a stranger in my country 46%

Don’t identify with what my country has become 59%

Experts don’t understand my life 69%

Wish we had a strong leader not current elected government 58%

10








11








12

CRISIS OF THE ELITES? – TRUST IN ...

International institutions 38%

Banks 36%

Justice system 36%

Big companies 32%

The government 24%

Political parties 16%

The media 7%


#2 UNCERTAINTY IS

THE NEW NORMAL

14

THIS A YEAR AGO?

WHO PREDICTED

15

KEY:

Agree 2016 Disagree 2016


T

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

We live in an

increasingly

dangerous world

Base: 18,180 adults across 23 countries, online, 12th Sep – 11th Oct 2016

DANGER

EVERYWHERE

82%

95%

90%

89%

88%

87%

87%

86%

86%

84%

84%

84%

83%

82%

82%

80%

80%

79%

78%

78%

77%

72%

67%

60%

15%

5%

10%

10%

10%

10%

12%

14%

11%

14%

12%

14%

13%

13%

16%

16%

16%

18%

20%

21%

21%

25%

22%

33%

Total

Mexico

S Africa

Peru

Argentina

Brazil

Turkey

Poland

U.S.

Australia

France

Italy

S Korea

Belgium

Russia

Spain

GB

Germany

Canada

Sweden

Indonesia

India

Japan

China

T

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

16

53%

49%

46%

“I fear that

technical

progress

is destroying

our lives”% AGREE

MORE WORRIES…

Millennials Gen X Baby Boomers

17

KEY:



50%

74%

71%

71%

66%

60%

60%

55%

55%

54%

52%

50%

49%

48%

47%

45%

43%

42%

39%

36%

35%

34%

33%

33%

38%

21%

24%

23%

28%

31%

26%

41%

28%

35%

37%

34%

44%

31%

40%

34%

39%

43%

50%

48%

54%

49%

53%

55%

Total

Indonesia

India

Turkey

Peru

Brazil

China

Mexico

Russia

Argentina

S Africa

Italy

S Korea

Poland

U.S.

Japan

Australia

Canada

Spain

GB

Germany

France

Belgium

Sweden

T

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

Eventually all medical

conditions and

diseases will be

curable


NOT ALL DOOM

AND GLOOM


BATTLE

#3 THE

FOR

ATTENTION


Direct

marketing

TV/

Cinema

RadioPress

Posters /

Billboards

1980s

Digital/

terrestrial

TV

Mobile

phone

ads

Mobile

phone aps

Social

networking

profiles

In game

advertising

PR

Online

video

Homepage

takeovers

Search

ads

Direct

marketing

Micro

blogging

Satellite

TV

Online

radio

Digital

radio

Press

Direct

marketing

Email

marketing

Sponsorship

Analogue

radio

Augmented

reality

Viral

video

Direct

mail Digital

Billboards

Posters Online

banners

Cinema

Direct

marketing

Microsites

Now

20

BATTLE FOR ATTENTION

66%in Turkey say

they are

‘constantly

looking at

screens

these days’

“The level of interrupt, the

sort of overwhelming rapidity

of information… is in fact

affecting cognition” Eric Schmidt

21

%

they are served

are often

irrelevant

Say the ads

22

% USING

AD BLOCKERS

YES NO DON’T KNOW

T

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

57%

76%

67%

66%

66%

65%

64%

63%

62%

62%

61%

60%

60%

57%

56%

56%

53%

52%

50%

48%

47%

45%

40%

37%

36%

19%

26%

28%

31%

30%

30%

32%

31%

34%

32%

33%

35%

34%

35%

35%

41%

40%

41%

44%

44%

46%

52%

57%

7%

5%

7%

6%

3%

5%

6%

5%

7%

4%

7%

7%

5%

9%

9%

9%

6%

8%

9%

8%

9%

9%

8%

6%

Total

India

Indonesia

France

S Africa

China

Brazil

Argentina

Germany

Poland

U.S.

Peru

Russia

Turkey

Mexico

Canada

Italy

Spain

Belgium

Sweden

GB

Australia

S Korea

Japan

Base: 10,412 adults across 23 countries online, 12th Sep – 11th Oct 2016


FOR SIMPLICITY

#4 THE SEARCH

AND CONTROL

24

%

Say they wish

their life was

more simple

25

“… choice, complexity and let’s

CASS SUNSTEIN

call it limited attention span …

can lead to behavioural

market failures”

26

OF TRADITION

THE RISE AND RISE

27

THE PAST IS

I would like my

country to be the

way it used to be

ALWAYS

KEY:



50%

69%

69%

66%

64%

62%

59%

58%

58%

57%

51%

49%

48%

48%

46%

46%

44%

43%

43%

41%

38%

37%

32%

30%

41%

28%

23%

24%

27%

33%

32%

29%

35%

38%

36%

39%

42%

41%

45%

49%

54%

41%

51%

48%

49%

54%

64%

60%

Total

India

U.S.

France

Belgium

Mexico

Italy

Australia

Turkey

Brazil

Canada

GB

Argentina

Russia

Germany

S Africa

Indonesia

Japan

Sweden

Spain

Poland

S Korea

Peru

China


ATTRACTIVE

28

%agree that “traditions

%are an important

part of society”

agree that “It is up to

everybody to work out

their own set of principles

to guide their decisions”

29

MOST DON’T

The role of women in

society is to be good

mothers and wives

WANT

KEY:


Agree 2014 Disagree 2014Base: 17,180 adults across 22 countries, online, 12th Sep – 11th Oct 2016

TRADITIONAL

37%

76%

69%

64%

47%

43%

42%

41%

41%

39%

37%

36%

36%

35%

30%

27%

25%

24%

24%

23%

22%

19%

17%

58%

22%

23%

33%

50%

52%

54%

53%

52%

59%

60%

60%

61%

44%

64%

69%

70%

70%

71%

73%

72%

77%

78%

Total

Indonesia

Russia

India

Turkey

Brazil

Poland

Germany

U.S.

S Africa

Mexico

S Korea

Peru

Japan

Australia

Argentina

Canada

France

Italy

Belgium

GB

Spain

Sweden

ROLES FOR

WOMEN

30 © 2016 Ipsos.

KEY:



57%

79%

72%

70%

69%

63%

62%

62%

62%

60%

59%

57%

57%

57%

55%

55%

52%

52%

47%

47%

43%

41%

34%

25%

16%

24%

19%

21%

27%

19%

20%

18%

17%

19%

18%

25%

19%

30%

21%

21%

34%

30%

30%

25%

49%

41%

Total

India

Turkey

S Africa

Brazil

Peru

Australia

Italy

Spain

GB

France

Canada

Sweden

U.S.

Mexico

Poland

Belgium

S Korea

Argentina

Germany

Japan

Indonesia

Russia

Things would work better if more women held positions with responsibilities in government and companies


THINGS WOULD

WORK BETTER IF…

31

#5 GENERATION

STRAINS

32

78%

66%

65%

63%

56%

49%

48%

45%

42%

40%

39%

37%

34%

32%

29%

28%

27%

26%

24%

22%

21%

15%

10%

China

Peru

India

Indonesia

Brazil

S Africa

Mexico

Russia

Poland

Argentina

U.S.

Turkey

Italy

Germany

Canada

Japan

Sweden

Australia

S Korea

GB

Spain

Belgium

France

DISRUPTION

To what extent, if at all, do

you feel that today’s

youth will have had a

better or worse life than

their parents, or will it be

about the same?” % BETTER

TOMORROW


WORLD

#7 A HEALTHIER

34

PEOPLE SAY EATING

Of all the things I can do

to maintain good

health, eating right is

the most important

THE RIGHT THING

MATTERS

KEY:


80%

95%

90%

88%

87%

87%

86%

85%

85%

84%

84%

82%

82%

82%

79%

78%

78%

77%

74%

72%

71%

68%

67%

63%

16%

4%

8%

10%

7%

11%

10%

11%

14%

14%

14%

12%

14%

15%

19%

18%

16%

18%

23%

23%

20%

19%

25%

30%

Total

Indonesia

India

S Korea

China

Spain

Argentina

Brazil

S Africa

Turkey

Peru

Australia

Canada

U.S.

Mexico

Germany

Italy

GB

Sweden

France

Russia

Japan

Belgium

Poland


35

BUT MOST

How satisfied or

dissatisfied are you

with your weight?

WORRIED ABOUT

WEIGHT

KEY:


KEY:

Satisfied 2016 Dissatisfied 2016

Satisfied 2014 Dissatisfied 2014

44%

75%

65%

52%

51%

51%

51%

49%

48%

45%

45%

45%

43%

43%

43%

42%

42%

41%

41%

39%

37%

28%

26%

19%

33%

10%

20%

27%

32%

36%

35%

18%

31%

38%

30%

33%

40%

36%

38%

34%

32%

33%

31%

33%

32%

46%

36%

51%

Total

Indonesia

India

Sweden

Poland

S Africa

U.S.

China

Russia

Australia

Brazil

Canada

Germany

Turkey

GB

Argentina

Italy

Belgium

Spain

France

Mexico

Japan

Peru

S Korea

36

%

more control

Say they want

%

second opinion

Would get a

37

WILL

Over the coming years,

do you expect the quality

of healthcare that you

and your family will have

access to locally will

improve, stay the same

or get worse?

HEALTHCARE

KEY:


KEY:

Improve 2016 Get Worse 2016

Improve 2014 Get Worse 2014

29%

71%

60%

51%

47%

42%

40%

39%

39%

27%

26%

24%

23%

23%

22%

21%

20%

20%

18%

14%

12%

10%

10%

8%

23%

9%

6%

4%

8%

22%

13%

13%

25%

11%

18%

20%

28%

13%

32%

38%

29%

29%

32%

24%

38%

41%

38%

47%

Total

Brazil

India

Indonesia

China

Turkey

Peru

Argentina

S Africa

S Korea

Russia

U.S.

Belgium

Japan

Mexico

France

Australia

Sweden

Canada

Poland

Germany

Italy

Spain

GB

IMPROVE?


DIVIDE

#8 THE OPTIMISM

39

GLOBALISATION

Globalisation is good

for my country

DIVIDES55%

82%

79%

77%

72%

72%

70%

65%

57%

56%

56%

54%

53%

52%

49%

49%

45%

45%

45%

41%

41%

36%

31%

30%

32%

14%

13%

19%

24%

17%

24%

26%

32%

34%

27%

27%

37%

29%

31%

31%

45%

41%

37%

36%

41%

51%

53%

57%

Total

India

China

Peru

Indonesia

S Africa

Brazil

Argentina

Sweden

S Korea

GB

Canada

Turkey

Australia

Japan

U.S.

Germany

Mexico

Poland

Russia

Spain

Italy

France

BelgiumKEY:

KEY:



40

STRIVING VERSUS

I want to achieve

success personally and

professionally even if I

have to change totally

the way I live

COMPLACENT?55%

77%

77%

72%

72%

70%

68%

67%

65%

62%

59%

53%

51%

47%

47%

44%

44%

44%

44%

42%

41%

41%

36%

33%

39%

21%

22%

27%

25%

23%

31%

31%

27%

36%

36%

42%

43%

45%

44%

47%

50%

46%

50%

50%

52%

43%

57%

60%

Total

India

Mexico

S Africa

Peru

China

Indonesia

Brazil

Russia

Turkey

S Korea

Argentina

U.S.

Australia

Poland

Belgium

Canada

France

Spain

GB

Germany

Japan

Sweden

ItalyKEY:

KEY:



41

FOR CONSUMER

I measure my success

by the things I own

UNDERSTANDING,

COUNTRIES

37%

70%

63%

61%

58%

53%

42%

38%

38%

36%

36%

34%

32%

31%

30%

29%

27%

27%

27%

25%

24%

23%

21%

21%

60%

24%

35%

38%

40%

43%

57%

56%

58%

57%

62%

63%

63%

66%

69%

68%

69%

60%

69%

72%

74%

74%

77%

78%

Total

China

India

Turkey

Brazil

S Korea

Indonesia

France

Poland

Russia

S Africa

U.S.

Belgium

Germany

Peru

Australia

Italy

Japan

Mexico

Canada

GB

Argentina

Spain

Sweden

KEY:

KEY:



MATTER

42

AND

FINALLY

43

%THE GUESS:

Q: What % of people

in your country are

very/fairly happy?

%THE REALITY:

…is much more

positive…

44

MORE IN

People across the

world have more

things in common

than things that make

them different

COMMON?

KEY:

KEY:



66%

79%

77%

76%

76%

76%

73%

72%

72%

72%

72%

71%

71%

69%

66%

65%

64%

61%

60%

59%

57%

55%

48%

37%

26%

18%

19%

21%

20%

20%

19%

20%

18%

19%

23%

21%

23%

23%

27%

30%

31%

33%

32%

31%

36%

32%

43%

42%

Total

India

S Africa

Mexico

Turkey

Peru

Russia

Argentina

Australia

China

Spain

GB

U.S.

Canada

Germany

Sweden

Indonesia

Brazil

Belgium

Poland

Italy

France

S Korea

Japan

45

THANK

YOU WWW.IPSOSGLOBALTRENDS.COM

#IPSOSTRENDS

fragmentation cohesion & uncertainty · 1 fragmentation cohesion & uncertainty simon...

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