Framework for Risk Analysis in Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems Multimedia Environmental Systems

Version 2 (FRAMES-2)Version 2 (FRAMES-2)

Framework for Risk Analysis in Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems Multimedia Environmental Systems

Version 2 (FRAMES-2)Version 2 (FRAMES-2)

WorkshopU.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

Rockville, Maryland

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryNovember 15-17, 2005

2

Contributing MembersContributing MembersContributing MembersContributing Members

DoDDoDERDCERDC

NRCNRCResearchResearch

Facilitatingcooperation,

coordination, and exchangeof technical information,related to the multimedia

environment

EPAORD

DOEEM

PNNLDOEDOE

EPAORIA

3

Contact Information Name Address Phone

Numbers Email

Points of Contact

Gene Whelan MSIN K9-36

3120 Q Avenue Richland, WA 99352

ph: (509) 372-6098 fax: (509) 372-6089 gene.whelan@pnl.gov

Karl Castleton MSIN K6-04 P.O. Box 999

Richland, WA 99352 ph: (970) 248-1837 fax: (970) 248-1324 karl.castleton@pnl.gov

Gariann Gelston MSIN K7-97

3320 Q Avenue Richland, WA 99352

ph: (509) 372-4480 fax: (509) 375-5921 gariann.gelston@pnl.gov

Developers

Karl Castleton MSIN K6-04 P.O. Box 999

Richland, WA 99352 ph: (970) 248-1837 fax: (970) 248-1324 karl.castleton@pnl.gov

Boonie Hoopes MSIN K6-04

3180 George Wash. Way Richland, WA 99352

ph: (509) 372-6550 fax: (509) 372-4995 bonnie.hoopes@pnl.gov

Mitch Pelton MSIN K6-04

3180 George Wash. Way Richland, WA 99352

ph: (509) 372-6551 fax: (509) 372-4995 mitch.pelton@pnl.gov

Kevin Dorow MSIN K7-22

3300 Q Avenue Richland, WA 99352

ph: (509) 375-2517 fax: (509) 375-3992 kevin.dorow@pnl.gov

Quality Assurance/Technical Support

Gariann Gelston MSIN K7-97

3320 Q Avenue Richland, WA 99352

ph: (509) 372-4480 fax: (509) 375-5921 gariann.gelston@pnl.gov

Randal Taira Battelle Seattle Res. Ctr.

4500 Sand Point Way NE, Suite 100 Seattle, WA 98105-3556

ph: (206) 528-3258 fax: (206) 528-3556 TairaR@battelle.org

Sponsors

Dr. Ralph E. Cady

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research

Mail Stop T-9F31 Washington, DC 20555

ph: (301) 415-6249 rec2@nrc.gov

Mr. Gerald Laniak

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development

National Exposure Research Lab Ecosystems Research Division

960 College Station Road Athens,GA 30605

ph: (706) 355-8316 Laniak.Gerry@epamail.epa.gov

Dr. Mark Dortch

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Engineer Research and Development

Center ATTN: CEERD-EP-W 3909 Halls Ferry Road Vicksburg, MS 39180

ph: (601) 634-3517 Mark.S.Dortch@erdc.usace.army.mil

Ms. Kathryn Snead

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air and Radiation

Office of Indoor Air and Radiation Ariel Rios Building

1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20460

ph: (202) 343-9228 Kathryn.Snead@epamail.epa.gov

Mr. Paul Beam

U. S. Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management

Office of Cleanup Technologies EM-21

19901 Germantown Road Germantown, MD 20874

ph: (301) 903-8133 Paul.Beam@em.doe.gov

4

1990 1994 1996 199819921982 1984 1986 1988 200420022000 Initial idea for RAPS

Initial proposal of RAPS to DOE Initial proposal of MEPAS to DOE

Version 1.0 of MEPAS Initial idea for RAAS

Version 2.0 of MEPAS with DOS user interface

----------------------------- DOE’s Environmental Survey using MEPAS

------------- MEPAS used to conduct risk-based characterization on SST analytes

Version 3.0 of MEPAS

Version 4.0 of MEPAS

Version 4.1 of MEPAS

Initial idea for FRAMES

Version 1.0 of FRAMES

Version 1.1 of FRAMES

Initial idea for Modular Risk Analysis (MRA) approach

----- Use of MEPAS & MRA approach on HRA-EIS

------------- MEPAS used DOE’s PEIS

----- MEPAS used DOE’s BEMR

Initial funds from EPA for 3MRA-HWIR

----------- Use of MEPAS & MRA on WIPP-SEIS II

------- Pantex RA uses FRAMES 1.0

Merged SystemUnified Life Cycle Analysis

Time Line of Multimedia Modeling Developments at PNNL

FRAMES: $8M/10 yrsMultimedia Modeling: $23M/23 yrs

FRAMES-2.0

EPA-ORD3MRA-2.0

Site Specific

FRAMES Development History1995 - 2005

FRAMES-1.0

EPA-ORD/OSWFRAMES-3MRA-1.0

(National Assessment)

EPA-ORDFRAMES-3MRA-1.x

(UA/SA)

FRAMES-1.1 to 1.7

FRAMES-3MRA

DoD-ERDCARAMS

EPA-ORIA

SuperMUSE

Framework Independent Component

NRC

DoD-ERDCARAMS-2.0

EPA-ORIA

IWRMS(King County)

SuperMUSE

6

Purpose: Merged the best attributes of 3MRA, ARAMS, GENII, and FRAMES-V1

Objective: Design a software system that allows the non-parochial communication between disparate models, databases, and frameworks. Design a functionally easy system which can be modified and updated by “users.”

Constraints: Follow requirements outlined at the NRC-hosted 2000 workshop, documented in the Proceedings of the Environmental Software Systems Compatibility and Linkage Workshophttp://www.ISCMEM.org

Purpose: Merged the best attributes of 3MRA, ARAMS, GENII, and FRAMES-V1

Objective: Design a software system that allows the non-parochial communication between disparate models, databases, and frameworks. Design a functionally easy system which can be modified and updated by “users.”

Constraints: Follow requirements outlined at the NRC-hosted 2000 workshop, documented in the Proceedings of the Environmental Software Systems Compatibility and Linkage Workshophttp://www.ISCMEM.org

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FRAMES-2FRAMES-2FRAMES-2FRAMES-2

Middleware Middleware Collaboration and Communication

Allows for the seamless transfer of data betweendisparate models, databases, and modeling systems.

User gets to pick models and databases of choice.

Intuitive system that can be modified and updated by users.

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1

2

3

Simple

Medium

Complex

Model Type 1(e.g., Source Model)

3

1

2

Model Type 2(e.g., Aquifer)

FRAMES

= Data processor

= Modules Model Type 3(e.g., Risk Model)

3 2 1

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FRAMES-2.0FRAMES-2.0FRAMES-2.0FRAMES-2.0

FRAMES-1.x – Site-Specific analyses

3MRA – National, Complex-wide analyses

FRAMES-2.x – FRAMES-2, using the best features of FRAMES-1 and 3MRA Build Site-Specific Assessments, then role results up

into Complex-Wide Analyses

Many non-Environmental Uses

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Design Goals of FRAMES-2Design Goals of FRAMES-2Design Goals of FRAMES-2Design Goals of FRAMES-2

Design a software system that allows the non-parochial communication between disparate models, databases, and frameworks.Design a functionally easy system which can be modified and updated by “users.”Provide a platform that allows “objects” to ACCESS information generated/produced by other “objects.”Keep it simple, not simplistic Make it understandable Standardize and develop consistent and repeatable

protocolsReproducibility means CredibilityVisualize the problem -- PICTURESVisualize the results -- PICTURESProvide Sensitivity/Uncertainty Capabilities

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Static Telephone Book Dynamic Telephone Books

Design AspectsBackward CompatibilityDesign Aspects

Backward Compatibility

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Conceptual Site Modeland

Drag & Drop Feature

TCE Risk vs. Probability of Exceedence Auto-Correlated Release

0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.450.500.550.600.650.700.750.800.850.900.951.001.05

0.0E+00 2.0E-08 4.0E-08 6.0E-08 8.0E-08 1.0E-07 1.2E-07 1.4E-07

Risk

Pro

ba

bil

ity

of

Ex

ce

ed

en

ce

Distance = 100 m

Distance = 225 m

Visualization of S/U Output Results

Probability of water concentration peak (g/mL) for Benzene above 4.6e-08

SrcInvB = Initial Source Inventory (grams), BenzeneSatDistL = Travel distance well (cm) SrcInvB = Initial Source Inventory (grams), BenzeneSatDistL = Travel distance well (cm)

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

1.00e+052.00e+053.00e+054.00e+055.00e+056.00e+057.00e+058.00e+059.00e+051.00e+06SrcInvB

0.00e+002.00e+04

4.00e+046.00e+04

8.00e+041.00e+05

1.20e+051.40e+05

SatDistL

0.00e+00

2.00e+01

4.00e+01

6.00e+01

8.00e+01

1.00e+02

Prob

abilit

y of

Exce

eden

ce (%

)

Inventory (g)Distance fro

m Source (cm)

Probability of a Peak Benzene Concentration BeingAbove the Acceptable Limit of 4.6E-02 mg/L

Visualization of S/U Output ResultsProbability of

Exceedence (%)

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Automation and ReproducibilityAutomation and Reproducibility(Some Quick Examples)(Some Quick Examples)

Automation and ReproducibilityAutomation and Reproducibility(Some Quick Examples)(Some Quick Examples)

RAGS Generation as a Quick Example

Automated Testing

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FRAMES-2 Key ConceptsFRAMES-2 Key ConceptsFRAMES-2 Key ConceptsFRAMES-2 Key Concepts

Identify and agree upon a specific “Contract” as to how data/information are packaged and passed (DIC)

Identify and agree upon how data are measured and what they mean (i.e., metadata) (DIC Editor and [(Units) Conversion Editor]

Define what your model/DB is (Domain editor)

Define the direct contextual relationship of your model/DB to other components in the system [Module (DES) Editor and Simulation Editor]

Define very clear and strict data/information protocols

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Seamless and Transparent Communication Through ARAMS/FRAMES for Linking Disparate Objects

Seamless and Transparent Communication Through ARAMS/FRAMES for Linking Disparate Objects

Model 2

Model 1

ModelOutput

Model Output

Model Input

Database Data

Database Data

User-SpecifiedInput

FRAMES-2 infrastructure is

interested in the I/O, not the Objects

(e.g., models, DBs)

User-SpecifiedInput

Model wrapping in FRAMES-2 requires adding dictionary and description files, and model switches Forward→

FRAMES-2 CommunicationFRAMES-2 CommunicationFRAMES-2 CommunicationFRAMES-2 Communication

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ChemAquiferConcDissolved chemical concentrationsVersion: 2Privilege: System Boundary

Name Description Unit Measure Type Range S D U K Prep Indices

ConcThe dissolve-phase concentration associated with water

mg/L Mass/Volume FLOAT 0 - 1E+30 N 3 Y NAquiferPoints.Feature ChemList.CASID TimePts

TimePts Concentration time point yr Time FLOAT 0 - 1E+08 Y 3 N NAquiferPoints.Feature ChemList.CASID

Legend

Column Name

Meaning

S Self-IndexedD Dimensional SizeU Uncertainty can apply (Stochastic)K Is the variable a key to others

Standard DICtionary Describing Standard DICtionary Describing Concentration as a Function Concentration as a Function

of Time and Locationof Time and Location

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Defining Connection SchemesDefining Connection Schemes

Model 1ProduceDIC 6

ConsumeDIC 1, 2, 3

Scheme # Connection Scheme

1

Model 1ProduceDIC 3, 5

ConsumeDIC 4, 6

Model 1Produce

DIC 1, 2, 6

ConsumeDIC 1, 3, 4, 5

2

3

20

Applicable Models

Plug & Play Feature

21

Plug & Play Feature

Non-applicable Models

22

Model Developer Database Owner User (Analyst)

• Build or Import DICs• Define Units• Build/Import Modules• Set up Domain• Define Connection Schemes

Tools:• (Units) Conversion Editor• DICtionary Editor• Domain Editor• Module (DES) Editor• Dataset Editor

• Map DB Schema• Develop DB Extraction Plans

Tools:• Data Owner Tool• Data Extraction Tool

• Select Domain• Select Icons• Connect Icons• Select Models & Databases• Run Extraction Plans

Tools:• Simulation Editor • Data Client Editor (GMUI)• Dataset Editor

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FRAMES-2 EditorsFRAMES-2 EditorsFRAMES-2 EditorsFRAMES-2 Editors

DICtionary Editor – Allows the user to add new or edit existing DICtionaries.(Units) Conversion Editor – Allows the user to add additional or edit existing unit conversions supported by the system.Module (DES) Editor – Allows the user to input and edit the DEScription (DES) DICtionary, which contains information about the model (e.g., icon Class, which Boundary Condition and Input DICs are consumed and which Boundary Condition DICs are produced, who to contact for more information, etc.).Domain Editor – Allows the user to define where the model fits in the system (e.g., icon type, Domain, Group, and Subgroup, etc., but not Class).Simulation Editor – Allows the user to edit the Conceptual Site Model (CSM) work space, containing the Drag & Drop functionality of constructing a CSM and linking modules together. This editor is the FRAMES CSM interface.

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Current FRAMES-2 ActivitiesCurrent FRAMES-2 ActivitiesCurrent FRAMES-2 ActivitiesCurrent FRAMES-2 Activities

Groundwater Modeling System (NRC Research)

Adaptive Risk Assessment Modeling System (DoD-ERDC)

Multi-media, Multi-pathway, Multi-Exposure Risk Assessment (3MRA) Methodology (EPA-ORD)

SuperMUSE Parallel Processing System (EPA-ORD)

Rapid Risk Assessment (Emergency Preparedness and Response) (PNNL-DOE)

Biologically Based Modeling (PNNL-DOE)

Universal Linkage to Databases (PNNL-DOE)

Data Access Network (DOE-Hanford)

Integrated Water Resource Modeling System (IWRMS)

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SummarySummarySummarySummary

Design, based on March 2000 Workshop RequirementsMiddleware, designed for seamless transfer of data between Disparate Models Disparate Databases Disparate Modeling Systems (Frameworks)

Intuitive system, which can be modified and updated by “users.”Not Necessarily Environmental CentricMultimedia Modeling: $23M ($8M for FRAMES)