Francesca Marcucci, Lucio Torrisiwith the contribution of Valeria Montesarchio, ISMAR-CNR

CNMCA, National Meteorological Center,Italy

First experiments with COSMO-ME-EPS

Outline• The Ensemble Data Assimilation at CNMCA: Local

Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF)• Towards the probabilistic forecast: the COSMO-ME

EPS • First runs with COSMO-ME EPS• A sea state EPS: NETTUNO-EPS• Future developments

7 km40 v.l.

2.8 km50 v.l.

- compressible equations- parameterized convection

- compressible equations- explicit convection

CNMCA NWP SYSTEM since 1 June 11The operational CNMCA short-range ensemble prediction system is based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) approach (Bonavita, Torrisi and Marcucci, 2008, 2010), for the data assimilation component (estimation of the initial conditions), and the COSMO regional model for the prognostic one.

LETKF analysis ensemble (40+1 members) every 6h using TEMP, PILOT, SYNOP, SHIP, BUOY, VAD/Wind Profilers, AMDAR-ACAR-AIREP, MSG3-MET7 AMV, MetopA-B scatt. winds, NOAA/MetopA AMSUA radiances+ Land SAF snow mask, IFS SST analysis once a day

Local Area Modelling: COSMO

EnKF DA

COSMO-ME (7km) ITALIAN MET SERVICE10 km45 v.l.

Control StateControl StateAnalysisAnalysis

The operational forecast up to 48 hours is done using the deterministic member

time BG Forecasts

timeInitial conditions

BG Forecasts

Initial conditions

Analysis Step Analysis Step

Forecast Step Forecast Step

timeInitial conditions BG Forecasts

Analysis Step Analysis Step

BG Forecast Step BG Forecast Step

ENS MEAN

CONTROL RUN

Actually only the assimilation is based on the ensemble techniqueThe 40 + 1 forecast members are run up to 9 hours in order to produce the BG ensemble for the next analysis step

The Ensemble Data Assimilation at CNMCA

7

A first implementation of COSMO-ME EPS has being tested at CNMCA in the framework of MYWAVE project ( short range sea state EPS based on COSMO-ME EPS: NETTUNO EPS)

The main characteristics of COSMO-ME EPS are: Domain and resolution: COSMO model is integrated on the same domain of the CNMCA-LETKF system. IC and BC: initial conditions are derived from the CNMCA-LETKF system. Lateral  boundaries conditions are from IFS deterministic run perturbed using ECMWF-EPS. Model error: stochastics physics perturbation tendencies will be evaluated. Forecast range: the 40+1 COSMO forecast members are running up to 48 hours in order to produce the wind forecast to be given as input to the NETTUNO system at 00 UTC.

BG

IC

BG Forecasts

Analysis Step Analysis Step

BG Forecast Step BG Forecast Step

Analysis Step Analysis Step

time

Toward a probabilistic forecast system: the COSMO-ME EPS

The implementation of a short range EPS based on COSMO-ME is straightforward “extending” the forecast members integration

27 nov 2012 00 UTC

First run with COSMO-ME EPS

40 members with 0.09° grid spacing, 26km (18hPa) model top, 45 vertical levels, IC from CNMCA LETKF, BC from deterministic IFS perturbed by ECMWF EPS

+18-24 +24-30 +30-36 +36-42

CONTROL RUN

EPS NOSP MEAN

EPS NOSP PROB20

27 nov 2012

COSMO-ME EPS

12

NETTUNO (Sea State) EPSpart of MYWAVE project

NETTUNO is a high resolution local scale wave forecast system operational in the Mediterranean Sea based on the COSMO-ME and WAM models (In cooperation with ISMAR-CNR of Venice)

The sea state probabilistic forecast is obtained driving the wave model using the hourly COSMO-ME EPS wind forecast members The NETTUNO-EPS consists of 40+1 members, that are integrated at 00 UTC up to 48 hour forecast in the Mediterranean basin

13Meeting 27 Maggio 2013

Time evolution of the ensemble mean

NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS

ens mean

22 may 2013

14Meeting 27 Maggio 2013

NETTUNO (Sea State) EPSTime evolution of the ensemble spread

ens spread

15Meeting 27 Maggio 2013

NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS

ens mean 06

ens mean 12

ens spread 06

ens spread 12

16Meeting 27 Maggio 2013

Confronto media-deviazione standard

NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS

ens mean 18

ens mean 24

ens spread 18

ens spread 24

17Meeting 27 Maggio 2013

Confronto media-deviazione standard

NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS

ens mean 30

ens mean 36

ens spread 30

ens spread 36

18Meeting 27 Maggio 2013

Confronto media-deviazione standard

NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS

ens mean 42

ens mean 48

ens spread 42

ens spread 48

Future Developments

• Calibration/tuning of the COSMO-ME EPS • Evaluation of stochastic physics impact over a long

period• Validation of the NETTUNO-EPS • Soil moisture perturbation

Thanks for your attention!