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Francisco [email protected]
12/3/2014
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MSCHE Annual ConferenceWashington, DC. Dec. 3, 2014
Francisco MarmolejoTertiary Education CoordinatorThe World [email protected]
@fmarmole
@fmarmole Email: [email protected]
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It is all relative…
Our beautiful planet in reality is no more than a speck of dust in the universe.
Marco Caceres. Space Analyst
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“When I think about the future… I become scared of the present”
20141994 203420342040
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Where are located Bangladesh, Mexico, Ethiopia, Brazil, Pakistan, Uganda, Nigeria, Vietnam and the Democratic Republicof Congo?
RANK COUNTRY 1950 COUNTRY 2000 COUNTRY 2050
1 China 554.8 China 1,275.2 India 1,531.4
2 India 357.6 India 1,016.9 China 1,395.2
3 USA. 157.8 USA 285.0 USA 408.7
4 Russian Federation 102.7 Indonesia 211.6 Pakistan 348.7
5 Japan 83.6 Brazil 171.8 Indonesia 293.8
6 Indonesia 79.5 Russia 145.6 Nigeria 258.5
7 Germany 68.4 Pakistan 142.7 Bangladesh 254.6
8 Brazil 54.0 Bangladesh 138.0 Brazil 233.1
9 Great Britan 49.8 Japan 127.0 Ethiopia 171.0
10 Italy 47.1 Nigeria 114.7 DRCongo 151.6
11 France 41.8 Mexico 98.9 Mexico 140.2
12 Bangladesh 41.8 Germany 82.3 Egypt 127.4
13 Ukraine 37.3 Philipines 75.7 Vietnam 117.7
14 Nigeria 29.8 Turkey 68.3 Japan 109.7
15 Spain 28.0 Egypt 67.8 Iran 105.5
16 Mexico 27.7 Iran 66.4 Uganda 103.2
Fuente: ONU (2004). World Population to 2300.
World’s most populated countries. 1950-2050
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1.16
1.18
8.2
4.75
0 2 4 6 8 10
Developedcountries
Developingcountries
19982050
Source: UN 1998 World Population Report
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Source: United Nations Population Division (2010), World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision
Japan 2050: 70 65+ yr. old persons per 100 persons aged 15-65 yr.
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10 %
1910
50 %
2007
75 %
2050
WORLD POPULATION LIVING IN CITIES
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In Norway the average income per capita is $ 149.00 dollars per day, while in Malawi is only $500.00 but per year ($ 1.36 per day).
In other words, three days of average income in Norway are equivalent to almost a year of income in Malawi
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Nearly 20 percent of America’s children–and 13 percent of all Americans–live in poverty.
The Brookings Institution.
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Dominique Moisi.Geopolitics of Emotions (2009)
A more diverse world
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There are more than 5,000 ethnic groups in the world and only 190 countries. In the Sub-Sahara
region exist 1,300 linguistic groups in only 62 countries
Source: Rodger Doyle. Ethnic groups in the world. Scientific American. Sep. 1998.
Tribalism and modernity
Steve Breen. The San Diego Union-Tribune
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Can you tell me about my future?
Hmmm…I would, but I can’t
read Spanish!
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Net Migration (in millions of people). 1960-2010
Source: World Bank (2012). World Databank: Net Migration
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http://conahec.org
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Implications of the global growth in TE
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Challenging the traditional assumption of what is higher education
20141968 2025
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KatieMcAuliffe,DigitalLiberty
Source:IEEESpectrum.Jan.2013.Dataflow.p80
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A new type of students
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¿Sequential? Multi-task?
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%
YES
NO
37
63
010203040
50
60
70
YESNO
Source: Market Facts/TeleNation for GTE Directories. USA Today. Sep. 24-98
Pew Internet & American Life: US educators not Net-savvy Aug 14 2002: A new study from Pew Internet & American Life indicates that 78 percent of middle and high school students in the US use the Internet.
However, most American teenagers claim that educators often don’t know how, don’t want, or aren’t able to use online tools to help them learn or enrich their studies.
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I have a netbook, MP3 Players, flashdrive, IPAD… Dad, what did you use in school when you were student?
My brain!!
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Define what a circle is:It is a line connected by two ends making a round figure.
What is Trigonometry?:Device used to measure trigonometers.
GEOMETRY
What are the movements of the heart?: The heart is always in movement. It doesn’t move in the case of corpses only.
Brain:Ideas, after being spoken, go straight to the brain.
THE HUMAN BODY
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Gajaraj Dhanarajan
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Average rate of return to year of schooling is 10.4%
Based on comparable estimates of 545 observations, 131 economies, 1970‐2011 In Latest year available: average rate of return is 9.9%
0.0
5.1
.15
.2D
ensi
ty
0 5 10 15 20Rate of return
Source: Montenegro, C.E. & H.A. Patrinos (2013). Returns to Schooling around the World. The World Bank
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Table 3: Returns to schooling by educational level and region(latest available year between 2000-2011)
Region Primary Secondary Tertiary GDP/pc(PPP 2005)
N
World 10.3 6.9 16.8 6,719 74Middle East and North Africa 9.4 3.5 8.9 3,645 7
South Asia 9.6 6.3 18.4 2,626 4Eastern and Central Europe 8.3 4.0 10.1 6,630 7
High Income Economies 4.8 5.3 11.0 31,748 6
East Asia and Pacific 11.0 6.3 15.4 5,980 6Latin America and Caribbean 9.3 6.6 17.6 7,269 20
Sub-Saharan Africa 13.4 10.8 21.9 2,531 24
Returns highest at Tertiary Level
Source: Montenegro, C.E. & H.A. Patrinos (2013). Returns to Schooling around the World. The World Bank
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Principal factor of social mobility
More educationleads to:
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Massification
Still asymmetrical access / retention/ graduation
Increasing international student mobility
Revolution in teaching, learning and curriculum
Quality assurance, accountability and qualification frameworks
Financing higher education
The private providers’ revolution
The academic profession
The research environment
Information and communications technology
International trends in higher education
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Biases towards “universities” as the only higher education option persist.
Pathways allowing mobility between technical and vocational institutions and universities are also very limited, if they exist at all.
Quality control and assurance regulations and mechanism are weak
Equity: Clear disparities in access across groups persist.
Limited efficiency and limited engagement with the surrounding community
Insufficient investment in higher education.
Information: Policy and investment decisions are often based on inaccurate, biased, or incomplete information.
Lack of knowledge of job market needs prevents institutions from transparently sharing information about employability, demanded skills, and costs with students.
Weak linkages of the HE work with the agendas of research and innovation, and regional development
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0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
SSA South andWest Asia
Middle East& N. Africa
Central Asia East Asia andthe Pacific
World LatinAmerica and
theCaribbean
Central andEasternEurope
NorthAmerica andWesternEurope
1998 2005 2010
Courtesy of P. Materu. The World Bank
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Source: World Development Report 2013
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72 % of educators
58 % of employers
NO
SI
Source: Mourshed, Farrell, y Barton (2012), Education to Employment: Designing a System that Works.
Hypothesis : the labor market is demanding a combination of skills different to the ones that are
being provided by the educational system
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“Universities won’t survive…higher education is in deep crisis…The college campus won’t survive as a residential institution. Today’s [college] buildings are hopelessly unsuited and totally unneeded”
Peter Drucker, 1997
…or it is just an exageration?
Elliot Masie, President ‐The MasieCenter
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“While the ship is sinking –says the captain – the first priority is to save the crew, next is to avoid problems while the ship continues to sink, the third priority is to repair the ship, and lastly, the fourth priority, if time permits, is to save the passengers”
Arthur Levine, president of Columbia Teachers College
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Continuing doing the sme, but waiting different results
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Significantdevelopments
Theaccreditationsyndrome
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What are the top 3 issues in tertiary education in your region in which the Bank has an opportunity to act?
Quality Assurance/Governance
Employability of Graduates
Financing
Other priorities raised include Equity and Access, Innovation, Focus on Community Colleges
What should the Bank’s priorities be in tertiary education in the next 5 years? *
15.4%
38.5%
38.5%
38.5%
38.5%
46.2%
53.8%
53.8%
61.5%
69.2%
69.2%
69.2%
76.9%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%
Diversification in institutional mission of TEIs
Greater focus on TEIs versus governments
Fostering internationalization
Non‐university post‐secondary sector
Articulation btw different types of TEIs and with Secondary Ed.
Innovation in educational delivery models used by TEIs
Developing capacity of TEIs in science and innovation
Equity and access to TE
Role of the private sector in TE
Improving governance
Improving quality assurance
Funding models for TE
Bridging gap between education and employment
* Multiple responses
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Too much emphasis on assurance/compliance.
Still limited evidence on quality
Accreditation as a proxy of the status quo. Hindering innovation?
Perceived failures in some global efforts (AHELO)
The role of rankings
How much autonomy?
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Diversifying options, but leveling the playing field.
Assuring good quality institutions.
Making post‐compulsory education and training equitable and affordable.
Targeting public resources toward programs that yield high social returns.
Using innovative approaches to retain students and ensure employable graduates.
Improving secondary education.
Increasing the autonomy and cost‐efficiency of institutions and the TE systems.
Arming students with information so they make smart choices.
Embracing competition – national and global.
Fostering openness and an evidence‐based culture in tertiary education.
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A priority for “tomorrow”
Marginal
About money and control
Too complex
A good idea, but..
A priority for ”yesterday”
Mainstreamed
About mobility of societies
Means for better education
A critical need
What it may work in one case
There is no magic formula…
…it is not necessarily the best solution in other cases
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For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple,
H. L. Mencken…and wrong.
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“It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.”
“ The trouble with our times is that the future is not what it used to be ”
Paul Valéry
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Francisco MarmolejoTertiary Education Coordinator
The World BankTel. +1 (202) 458‐5927
Email: [email protected]://www.worldbank.org/education/tertiary
Twitter@fmarmole