freight models, constrained economic models and natural resource data
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Freight models, constrained economic models and natural resource data. TRB, Washington, 21 October 2013 Ming Chen, TNO. The need for a restricted model Conceptual framework Model suite TNO Examples of application and advantages Next steps. Context. Recent history: Climate debate - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Freight models, constrained economic models and natural resource dataTRB, Washington, 21 October 2013Ming Chen, TNO
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The need for a restricted modelConceptual frameworkModel suite TNOExamples of application and advantagesNext steps
October 21, 2013Ming Chen, TNO
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Context
Recent history:Climate debateOngoing and visible trend breaks (energy, food, water scarcity)Upcoming (large) economies (BRIC)Financial reset (changing approach towards debts)Energy independence (EU: import oil & gas 1.1 Billion/day)
As a consequence:Long term solutions/policies required Long term assessment and forecasting required (often upto 2050)Additional mega trends to be taken into account
=> Boundaries become visible
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Approaching the problem at the right level…
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moment of maximum production of non- replaceable natural resources When years to go before 2020 1-10 Lithium
before 2035 11-25
Antimony, Arsenic, Barite, Cadmium, Fluorspar, Gold, I ron ore, Lead, Manganese, Molybdenum, Niobium, Rhenium, Silver, Strontium, Tin, Zinc, Zirconium
before 2050 26-40 Bauxite, Bismuth, Coal, Cobalt, Copper, Garnet, Graphite, Natural Gas, Nickel, Thallium Titanium, Tungsten
before 2070 41-60 Boron, Magnesium, Mercury, Phosphate Rock, PGM, Selenium, Vanadium
after 2070 60+ Bromine, Cement, Lime, Potash, REM, Salt, Soda Ash
No data No data
Aluminium, Beryllium, Chromium, Diamond, Gallium, Germanium, Hafnium, I ndium, Nitrogen, Silicon, Sulphur, Tantalum
See section 3 See section 3 Oil Source: Continuously Less and Less, Chris Clugston, 2009 and Metal minerals scarcity, TNO, March 2009, separate category for oil NEA
Table: Moment where production growth is smaller than growth of demand
Note: indicative figures not derived from our model
Danger zone: < 30 years
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Implications of scarcity non-replaceable natural resourcesEconomic principles:
Insufficient supply > increase price > reduced demandIncrease in price > production at higher costs possible > more supply
In this case:no production at lower costs will return > products using scarce resources price increase and substitutes only available at higher costs > reduced demand > negative effect on economy as a whole (unless new cheaper technology or alternatives become available)
Example: oil off shore drilling
So restricted economic growth models required
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What to expect
Scarcity on some natural resources including labor, land use, energy, water, …Efficiency in use of scarce resourcesTransition to less scarce resourcesLarge scale innovationsSocietal changeChanging trade relationsReallocation of welfare in the world
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?
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Conceptual Freight Modeling Framework
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World Economic Model
Regional/Local Freight model
National/State Freight model
European/Federal Freight Model
Global Data sources
European/Federal Data Sources
Regional/Local Data sources
National/State Data Sources
Consistency rule
Consistency rule
Consistency rule
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Models available at TNO
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Wor
ld
Con
tain
er
mod
el
(mar
itim
e/po
rts)
Rae
m- E
urop
e
BIV
AS
(in
land
w
ater
way
s)
Bas
Goe
d
World EU
TNO
Fre
ight
Tra
nspo
rt M
odel
Production and Consumption
Trade (Sales and Sourcing)
Logistics Services
Transportation Services
Network Services
Production & Consumption
Distribution
Logistics
Modal split
Route choice
NL
Bas
Goe
d
EX
IOM
OD
TRA
NS
-TO
OLS
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Current Model flow
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Characteristics of the models
EXIOMOD RAEM-Europe TNO Freight models
Geographical scope, detail
World – Country Europe – NUTS2 + non-EU country relations
Europe – NUTS2 + non-EU country relations
Input/output Output: PC matrix (in euro)
Output: PC matrix (in euro)
Input: OD matrix (in tonnes)
Commodity classification
2-digit NACE (164 sectors/200 commodities)
1-digit NACE (59 sectors/ commodities)
NSTR1 (10 commodities)
Modelling type Computable General Equilibrium model
Spatial Computable General Equilibrium model
Multinomial logit & All-or-nothing
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Interesting features
•Linking physical and economic flows•Very detailed environmental and energy dimension
EXIOMOD
Main outputs
•International trade•Emissions and waste•Use and extraction of natural resources•Changes in technologies
Sectoral / Regional Dimension
•Main countries of the world•164 industries and service sectors, 200 commodities•Uses results of EXIOPOL
Possible applications
•Sustainability issues•Climate change•Energy transition•Competitiveness of European countries
Model
EXIOMOD
Unique elements:• Represents 95% of global economy (43 countries incl. EU27, US,
Japan, Russia, Brazil, India and China)• Much detail on Social effects, Economic effects, Environmental effects• Semi-endogenous growth under the framework of Dynamic Stochastic
General Equilibrium. (dynamic, recursive over time)• Agent-based modeling of expectation formation and technology adoption• Dynamics of capital accumulation and technology progress, stock and
flow relationships and adaptive expectations.
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Interesting features
•Combination of NEG with endogenous growth, migration•Linking social, economic and environmental dimensions
RAEM-Europe
Main outputs
•Interregional trade•Regional production, consumption, emissions and waste•Migration
Sectoral / Regional Dimension
•NUTS2 regions of EU27 (271)•24 industries and service sectors
Possible applications
•European Cohesion Policy•Transport•Environment•Regional economic growth
Model
RAEM-Europe
Unique elements:• Representation of agglomeration and dispersion effects using the
framework of new economic geography• Inter-regional migration flows at the level of NUTS2 regions of EU• Endogenous economic growth and inter-regional knowledge spillovers• Two levels of the government• Environmental effects at the regional level• Model choice for different types of trips• Amount of transport infrastructure investments is related to the road
capacity and transport costs
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Examples of application and advantages
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Example: Innovation scenarios for the building sector
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-3.00%
-2.50%
-2.00%
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Stone
Sand and clay
Chemical and fertilizer minerals,salt and other mining andquarrying products n.e.c.
Chemicals nec
Lead, zinc and tin ores andconcentrates
Other non-ferrous metal ores andconcentrates
Aluminium ores and concentrates
Figure: Improvement of material efficiency as measured in material used per unit of output in the baseline scenario
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Example non-EU developments to EU regional impacts
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Internalization of external costs
Grondstof
Transport 1
Productie 1
Transport 2
Productie 2
Consumptie0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70 Baseline
Externe kostenProductiekostenSeries1Eu
ro
Grondstof
Transport 1
Productie 1
Transport 2
Productie 2
Consumptie0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70 Internalisatie
Euro
Results: • Limited impact on global economy (-0.9%)• Limited impact on container flows through port of Rotterdam (-0.5%)• Benefits (external) higher than costs (internal), ratio 2.6 : 1
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Advantages
Improved prediction of international trade for 200 types of commoditiesImproved prediction of bulk flows, Improved assessment of external impacts including water and land use as well as generation of waste flows
which will impact for instance the assessments of infrastructure needs for ports and the inland modes and policies of at each level (national, regional).
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Improvement: Conversion factor module and scenarios for value-weight ratios
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Improvement: Transportation/logistics costs input to Economic module
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Example EU regional development and global impacts
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Overview of project experiences used for this presentation1. FP 7 HIGH-TOOL => development of a high level transport model 2. FP 7 ETISplus => European Transport policy Information System3. FP 7 FLAGSHIP => Forward looking assessment driving change4. FP 7 DESIRE => Development of resource efficiency indicators5. FP 7 Emininn => Environmental macro Indicators of Innovation6. FP7 - POLFREE (POLicy options For a Resource Efficient
Economy)7. FP7 CREEA => Compiling and Refining Environmental and
Economic Accounts8. RHOMOLO project for DG REGIO and IPTS => construction of
regional-economic model for Impact Assessment of ECP
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Overview of project experiences used for this presentation1. FP6 EXIOPOL => A New Environmental Accounting Framework
Using Externality Data and Input-Output Tools for Policy Analysis2. FP6 REFIT => REFinement and test of sustainability Indicators and
Tools with regard to European Transport 3. FP 6 TRANS-TOOL => development of a Transport model
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