friday, november 27, 2015 recent progress in the role of agricultural development in reducing...

Friday, April 21, 2023

RECENT PROGRESS IN THE ROLE OF AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN REDUCING

POVERTY IN AFRICA AND PERSPECTIVES ON THE WAY FORWARD

ALEJANDRO NIN PRATT

Research Fellow

OUSMANE BADIANE

Africa Coordinator

International Food Policy Research Institute

SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

OUTLINE

• Why is agriculture important for Africa?

• Agriculture’s past performance and lessons to be learned

• Success stories behind recent changes

• The way forward


IMPORTANCE OF AGRICULTURE


AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND POVERTY REDUCTION IN AFRICA

• Agriculture contributes with a significant share of total production in Africa’s economy

• Agricultural growth drives growth in other sectors of the economy

• Agriculture plays central role in African exports• Most poverty still concentrated in rural areas• Agricultural growth drives overall income growth in rural

areas• Implications:

• Agriculture significantly contributes to economic growth • Reduces overall poverty, hunger, and malnutrition more than any

other sector


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Niger Senegal Zambia BurkinaFaso

Incremental income from 1$ additional revenue from agricultural tradables

EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURAL GROWTHON OVERALL RURAL INCOMES

: O. Badiane, based on Delgado et al (1988)


AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

AGR. EXPORT AND DOMESTIC GROWTH

EXPORT GROWTH

DOMESTIC GROWTH

1%Growth

0.04%To

1.83%

AGR. EXPORT AND DOMESTIC GROWTH

: O. Badiane


AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

AGRIC. GROWTH

INDUST. GROWTH

1%Growth

1%To

1.32%

AGR. GROWTH AND INDUSTRIAL GROWTH

: O. Badiane


LOW AGRICULTURAL INCOMES ARE GENERALLY CORRELATED WITH HIGH POVERTY RATES

Eth

iop

ia

Ta

nza

nia

Ma

da

ga

sca

r

Ke

nya

Bu

run

di

Co

ng

o,

DR

Rw

an

da

Ug

an

da

R2 = 70%

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

20 40 60 80 100

National Poverty Rates (various years)

Pe

r C

ap

ita

Ag

GD

P (

US

$/p

ers

on

), 2

00

2


GHANA: AGRICULTURAL-LED GROWTH IS MORE PRO-POOR

National poverty rate

(with GDP growth rate of 5.7%)

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

31

33

35

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Ag-led grow th Nonag-led grow th


FASTER AGRICULTURAL GROWTH IS KEY TO POVERTY REDUCTION IN AFRICA

• The most effective way to reduce poverty is to raise the productivity of resources that poor people depend on for their livelihood

• Agricultural land

• Agricultural labor

• Off-farm rural labor


AGRICULTURE’S PAST PERFORMANCE


TRENDS IN AGRICULTURAL AND GDP GROWTH

-3

0

3

6

9

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Perc

en

t (%

)

Agriculture, value added (annual % grow th)

GDP grow th (annual %)

: M. Johnson


AGRICULTURAL GROWTH IS SPREADING

: Badiane and Ulimwengu


SO IS ECONOMIC GROWTH

: Badiane and Ulimwengu


TRENDS IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

19

70

19

73

19

76

19

79

19

82

19

85

19

88

19

91

19

94

19

97

20

00

20

03

Ind

ex (

19

70

=1

)

Value of Ag

Inputs

TFP


SUCCESS STORIES EXPLAINING CHANGE


POLICY CHANGES

• “One of the most fundamental shifts in the development strategy for Africa was to view agriculture not as a backward sector but as the engine of growth, an important source of export revenues and the primary means to reduce poverty.” (Kherallah et al. ,2000)

-3

0

3

6

9

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Perc

en

t (%

)

Agriculture, value added (annual % grow th)

GDP grow th (annual %)

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

19

70

19

73

19

76

19

79

19

82

19

85

19

88

19

91

19

94

19

97

20

00

20

03

Ind

ex (

19

70

=1

)

Value of Ag

Inputs

TFP

1996-2005


AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND POLICY CHANGES

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003

Mill

. $Exports (X) Imports (M) Trade (X+M)

Period ofpolicychange


SUCCESS IN AGRICULTURE (I)

• CASSAVA (Nigeria, Ghana and Southern Africa)• New varieties and modern

disease fighting research (Nigeria and Ghana and Southern Africa).

• MAIZE (West Africa)• Improved yield and

nutritional content of open-pollinating varieties instead of hybrids.


SUCCESS IN AGRICULTURE (II)

• COTTON (Francophone West Africa)• Successful organization and

coordination of the production chain with technical innovations (high yield varieties, fertilizer use, access to equipments)

• RICE (West Africa)• The Africa Rice Center

(WARDA) produced their first inter-specific hybrids combining hardiness and wed suppression of African species with the high yields of the Asian varieties

Burkina Faso cotton farmers (Brahima Ouedraogo/IRIN)


SUCCESS IN AGRICULTURE (III)

• SMALLHOLDER DAIRYING (Kenya)• Decontrol of milk pricing in

1992 + available technology (crossbred cows) spurred a surge in production and commercialization of milk in informal markets.

• CUT FLOWER EXPORTS (Kenya)• Increased from $13 million

in 1970 to $155 million in 1999

credit: Smallholder Dairy Project


INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES

• NEW PARTNERSHIP FOR AFRICA’S DEVELOPMENT (NEPAD)• Address challenges facing African continent

• COMPREHENSIVE AFRICA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM (CAADP)• Framework for restoration of agricultural growth, food security,

and rural development with key principles and targets:• 6% average annual sector growth

• Allocation of 10% of national budgets to agriculture

• Exploitation of regional complementarities and cooperation

• Accountability, partnerships, regional coordination


THE WAY FORWARD


IMPLICATIONS FOR COUNTRY AGRICULTURAL GROWTHRequired annual agricultural growth rates to meet MDG1

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

Zim

babw

eB

urun

diG

uine

a-M

adag

asca

rK

enya

Nig

erLe

soth

oTo

goC

ote

d'Iv

oire

Cen

tral

Cha

dN

amib

iaZa

mbi

aB

enin

Gui

nea

Gam

bia

Mal

awi

Sen

egal

Sw

azila

ndN

iger

iaM

ali

Bur

kina

Tanz

ania

Mau

ritan

iaE

thio

pia

Cam

eroo

nU

gand

aG

hana

Moz

ambi

que

Req

uire

d an

nual

Ag

Gro

wth

Rat

e (%

)

: S. Fan (2007)


REALITY CHECK:Progress against CAADP 10% Budget Goal (2004)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Guin

ea

Madagasc

ar

Nam

ibia

Mali

Chad

Gam

bia

Leso

tho

Zim

babw

e

Cote

d'Iv

oire

Maurita

nia

Uganda

Kenya

Eth

iopia

Mala

wi

Cam

ero

on

Moza

mbiq

ue

Benin

Nig

eria

Senegal

Centr

al A

fric

an R

epublic

Zam

bia

Sw

azi

land

Burk

ina F

aso

Tanza

nia

Togo

Buru

ndi

Nig

er

Ghana

Guin

ea-B

issa

u

Rw

anda

Perc

en

t o

f A

g t

o T

ota

l S

pen

din

g (

%)

: S. Fan (2007)


POVERTY OUTCOMES UNDER CURRENT GROWTH TRENDS(Poverty Headcount, 1$/day, 2005)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Per

cen

t (%

)

Current

MDG target

: S. Fan. 2007


FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IS POSSIBLE

Share of Malnourished Children in SSA

33 3330

17

28

7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Per

cent

1997 2015 2025 1997 2015 2025

CURRENT TRENDS ALTERNTIVE SCENARIO

: O. Badiane, based on Rosegrant et al (2006)


LESSONS FOR AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES

• Agriculture remains the main engine of poverty reducing growth for the near future

• Recent performance is encouraging but still below required levels

• What did we learn from success factors behind the recent growth performance?

• How should we use this experience to sustain and broaden the recovery process? What should change? What should we bring into the process?

friday, november 27, 2015 recent progress in the role of agricultural development in reducing...

Documents

policy changessource

gdp growth

engine of growth

industrial growth

agriculturalled growth

rural areasagricultural

overall income growth

badiane source