friday, october 01, 2021
TRANSCRIPT
Equity SNAPSHOT Friday, October 01, 2021
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
FROM EQUITY REPORT
Covid-19: Weekly Update: Persistent recovery
Population mobility improved significantly at the end of September,
mainly for retail and recreational activities. All pandemic metrics remain intact pointing toward recovery. Vaccine stocks were higher
vs last week due to higher stocks received on a weekly basis, yet with a lower utilization rate. Nonetheless, there are still some
developed nations experiencing higher daily cases even though the vaccination coverage is above 70% of the population.
To see the full version of this report, please click here
Banking: Digital banks: Best of both worlds (OVERWEIGHT)
The COVID pandemic has led to more structural changes in the banking landscape, particularly in the digital realm due to mobility
restrictions. The ability to tap the appropriate digital ecosystem and
proper data analytics to build reliable credit scoring systems are the key factors. We also expect only a few digital banks to launch direct
lending products in the near term while still depending on P2P channels to support loans growth. All in all, the ability to gain a
sizable customer base to generate revenues and the execution supported by a valid credit scoring system are essential elements to
come out on top in this new banking universe, in our view.
To see the full version of this report, please click here
Bank Jago: Way to go! (ARTO.IJ IDR15,100 BUY TP.IDR 20,000) Within the digital banking landscape, ARTO is well placed to run
ahead of its peers backed by: 1) its partnership with the GoTo digital
ecosystem, 2) its solid and knowledgeable management team, and 3) its focus on the mass-market segment that should translate into
higher NIMs. GoTo as one of ARTO’s non-controlling shareholders will help the bank through monetization of the sizeable database to
support digital business expansion. Combined with its experienced management team and solid CAR post rights issue, we assume
102.1% loans growth resulting in a 6.9% NIM next year. All in all,
the bottom line will turn positive at IDR302bn in FY22F based on our model.
To see the full version of this report, please click here
MARKET NEWS MACROECONOMY
▪ Budget 2022 approved: Unchanged deficit of 4.85% GDP ▪ PMI rises to 52.2 in September 2021
PREVIOUS REPORTS
▪ Paxel: Amplifying local food businesses nationwide ▪ Aneka Tambang: 1H21: Buoyant earnings – slightly above
▪ Adaro Energy: Buyback to provide good returns to
shareholders ▪ Bank Raya Indonesia: The Digital Trailblazer
▪ Covid-19: Weekly Update: Stronger recovery ▪ United Tractors: Strong Komatsu sales volume in Aug 21
▪ Bukalapak.com: Staged for hefty growth; takeaways ▪ Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia: A Hidden Digital Gem
▪ Strategy: On Firm Ground
KEY INDEX
Close
Chg Ytd Vol
(%) (%) (US$ m)
Asean - 5
Indonesia 6.287 2,0 5,1 955
Thailand 1.606 (0,7) 10,8 2.696
Philippines 6.953 0,3 (2,6) 187
Malaysia 1.537 (0,1) (5,6) 797
Singapore 3.072 (0,5) 8,0 55
Regional
China 3.568 0,9 2,7 88.095
Hong Kong 24.576 (0,4) (9,8) 14.774
Japan 29.234 (0,7) 6,5 5.301
Korea 3.028 (1,3) 5,4 12.580
Taiwan 16.935 0,5 14,9 1.895
India 59.126 (0,5) 23,8 679
Nasdaq 14.449 (0,4) 12,1 237.166
Dow Jones 33.844 (1,6) 10,6 19.150
KEY INDEX
Close
Chg Ytd Vol
(%) (%) (US$ m)
Asean - 5
Indonesia 6,134 0.1 (1.0) 318
Thailand 1,568 (0.1) 0.2 1,454
Philippines 7,855 (0.3) 5.2 87
Malaysia 1,562 (0.5) (7.6) 338
Singapore 3,173 (0.5) 3.4 908
Regional
China 2,885 0.3 15.7 28,889
Hong Kong 26,391 (0.2) 2.1 9,093
Japan 23,380 (0.6) 16.8 10,278
Korea 2,068 (0.8) 1.3 3,790
Taiwan 11,532 0.2 18.5 3,534
India 40,675 (0.3) 12.8 495
Nasdaq 8,521 (0.6) 28.4 116,797
Dow Jones 27,503 (1.0) 17.9 11,490
CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE
Rate
w-w m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14.313 (0,5) (0,3) (1,9)
BI7DRRR % 3,50 - - (0,3)
10y Gov Indo bond 6,26 0,1 0,2 0,4
CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE
Rate
w-w m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14,115 (0.2) (0.7) 1.9
BI7DRRR % 5.00 - (0.3) (1.0)
10y Gov Indo bond 7.16 0.1 0.2 (0.9)
HARD COMMODITY
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Coal US$/ton 218 3,6 25,1 170,8
Gold US$/toz 1.754 (0,2) (3,3) (7,6)
Nickel US$/mt.ton 17.947 (2,2) (8,4) 8,4
Tin US$/mt.ton 35.271 (4,2) 2,5 71,7
SOFT COMMODITY
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Cocoa US$/mt.ton 200 (0,4) 56,6 8,1
Corn US$/mt.ton 75 0,2 9,7 55,0
Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 78 0,2 9,6 51,5
Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 4.664 1,2 91,4 23,1
Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 166 0,2 1,4 10,7
Rubber USd/kg 1.205 N/A 2,8 20,5
Pulp US$/tonne 513 1,5 6,1 21,8
Coffee US$/60kgbag 198 0,4 2,0 14,4
Sugar US$/MT 59 (0,4) 0,4 35,1
Wheat US$/ton 1.254 (0,2) (1,9) (4,7)
Soy Oil US$/lb 200 (0,4) 56,6 8,1
SoyBean US$/by 75 0,2 9,7 55,0
Source: Bloomberg
HARD COMMODITY
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Coal US$/ton 67 (0.3) 0.2 (34.0)
Gold US$/toz 1,478 (0.0) (2.1) 15.2
Nickel US$/mt.ton 13,315 (2.5) (20.7) 25.6
Tin US$/mt.ton 16,771 1.5 1.7 (14.1)
SOFT COMMODITY
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,476 (1.0) 1.3 4.7
Corn US$/mt.ton 141 1.7 (2.5) 5.6
Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 56 0.6 (0.2) 24.3
Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 61 (0.2) (1.4) 13.0
Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,632 (1.3) 11.4 34.8
Rubber USd/kg 142 0.9 6.9 13.6
Pulp US$/tonne 1,205 N/A 2.8 20.5
Coffee US$/60kgbag 72 0.3 7.9 3.5
Sugar US$/MT 345 0.7 1.3 3.6
Wheat US$/ton 143 (1.9) 0.7 (5.1)
Soy Oil US$/lb 30 0.1 (3.4) 8.9
Soy Bean US$/by 871 0.1 (5.8) (1.3)
Source: Bloomberg
www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
Equity Research Covid-19 Update
Covid-19 Friday, 01 October 2021
Weekly Update: Persistent recovery
Population mobility improved significantly at the end of September, mainly for retail and recreational activities. All pandemic metrics remain intact pointing toward recovery. Vaccine stocks were higher vs last week due to higher stocks received on a weekly basis, yet with a lower utilization rate. Nonetheless, there are still some developed nations experiencing higher daily cases even though the vaccination coverage is above 70% of the population.
The positivity rate nationwide stood at 1.2% on a 7DMA basis, down from 2% last week. The share of the antigen test remains high at 80% of the total tests nationwide. The positivity rates of the antigen test and PCR test reached 0.3% and 4% on a 7DMA basis, respectively. The recovery rate in all provinces continues to improve, leaving Lampung (89.6%), and North Kalimantan (89%) with figures less than 90%, while Aceh has reached a 90% recovery rate.
The bed occupancy rate (BOR) in all provinces nationwide remained under control, leading to an ~11% national BOR as of yesterday. Our healthcare metrics assessment reveals that all pandemic metrics are still under control, given higher population mobility. Population mobility improved markedly in the fourth week of September. Mobility for retail and recreational activities has been above the benchmark level, followed by mobility in parks as one proxy to measure leisure activities. As more people have also started to work from the office, the mobility for workplaces and transit stations has also steadily improved.
Vaccinations update. Vaccination stocks administered nationwide have improved by 10.4% on a weekly basis, and the ending stocks rose by 26% due to a lower utilization rate of 73%. This indicates that vaccines availability has improved compared to previous weeks. The pace of vaccinations this week is slightly lower since last week, with 7% having the 1st jab and the 2nd jab. The reorder point for most regions is in the 3rd to 4th weeks of October. As of 29 Sep, Indonesia had administered more than 152 million stocks nationwide, and vaccinated more than 90 million people (~33% of the population), with 19% being fully vaccinated. International update. We also noticed that the daily cases in several developed nations such as the UK, Singapore and the US have increased recently, even though these countries have high vaccination coverage. Singapore recently posted more than 1k daily cases in the last 10 days with 15-18% of the daily cases being severe with patients needing oxygen and hospitalization. This is despite the fact that more than 80% of the population are fully vaccinated. As a result, the govt of Singapore imposed new social restrictions last week to mute the spread of covid. In the UK, meanwhile, even though daily cases have increased, the hospitalization rate is really low at less than 1%. Like Singapore, the UK’s population is more than 80% fully vaccinated.
Active case vs Recovery rate
Source: Ministry of Health
Daily tests vs positivity rate
Source: Ministry of Health
Muhammad Naufal Yunas
(62-21) 2955 5777 ext. 3507
x Helmy Kristanto
(62-21) 2955 5616
Equity Research Banking
See important disclosure at the back of this report www.danareksa.com
Friday,01 October 2021
Banking OVERWEIGHT
Digital banks: Best of both worlds
The COVID pandemic has led to more structural changes in the banking landscape, particularly in the digital realm due to mobility restrictions. The ability to tap the appropriate digital ecosystem and proper data analytics to build reliable credit scoring systems are the key factors. We also expect only a few digital banks to launch direct lending products in the near term while still depending on P2P channels to support loans growth. All in all, the ability to gain a sizable customer base to generate revenues and the execution supported by a valid credit scoring system are essential elements to come out on top in this new banking universe, in our view. The digital ecosystem is the key factor. We believe the right digital ecosystem and a definitive database are the two components for digital banks to succeed. With the massive and aggressive e-commerce platforms, many digital banks are looking to tap into these ecosystems. This is reasonable in our view as the platforms have sizable databases, both for customers and merchants, that can easily be used as the first screening process for potential borrowers. Nonetheless, the bank would also need to select which data can be used in the credit scoring model. This requires decent data analytics with the right personnel in place along with a knowledgeable management team as the approval time is a crucial factor in the mass-market segment. Regulators and sector environment: more supportive. OJK through its recent policies aims to provide more flexibility to banks to innovate through digital products/services as well as to create a level playing field with fintech players (there were 107 registered fintech companies as of September 2021). The asymmetric information between financial intermediaries and borrowers with proper data analytics and reliable credit scoring systems should be where digital banks get a competitive advantage, in our view.
Digital banks: the better version of banks and fintech. The c.62.0mn micro and small business owners in Indonesia are the low hanging fruit for digital banks. Digital banks have emphasised that they will utilize the supply chain approach to provide loans to their merchant borrowers (PO-based). For individual consumer loans, meanwhile, the lending product will usually be short-term and of a small ticket size. Given the short-term tenors in both segments, the number of potential borrowers and high volumes are vital factors to ensure sustainable business growth for digital banks. On the funding side, most of the digital banks will depend on the stickiness of merchants and customers in the respective ecosystems as most of them already maintain a certain amount in their e-wallets. With more banks shifting their focus to digital-oriented business, we believe that only a few will succeed supported by abundant potential customers coming from the ecosystem, a knowledgeable management team, and
OVERWEIGHT. We start with ARTO coverage on the back of its solid and knowledgeable management team with abundant growth opportunities coming from the Go-To digital ecosystem. Execution, ahead of fundamental valuations are to name but a few of the downside risks on digital bank names.
x
Eka Savitri
(62-21) 5091 4100 ext.3506
Andreas Kenny
(62-21) 5091 4100 ext.3509
Target Price
Market Cap. P/E (x) P/BV (x) ROE (%)
Company Ticker Rec (Rp) (RpBn) 2021F 2022F 2021F 2022F 2022F
Bank Jago ARTO IJ BUY 20,000 209,229 (10,037.7) 634.3 23.2 22.4 3.6 Bank Raya Indonesia AGRO IJ NOT RATED N/A 48,589 1,178.9 230.9 11.1 11.0 4.6
www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
Equity Research Company Update
Friday,01 October 2021
Bank Jago (ARTO IJ) BUY
Initiation Way to go!
Within the digital banking landscape, ARTO is well placed to run ahead of its peers backed by: 1) its partnership with the GoTo digital ecosystem, 2) its solid and knowledgeable management team, and 3) its focus on the mass-market segment that should translate into higher NIMs. GoTo as one of ARTO’s non-controlling shareholders will help the bank through monetization of the sizeable database to support digital business expansion. Combined with its experienced management team and solid CAR post rights issue, we assume 102.1% loans growth resulting in a 6.9% NIM next year. All in all, the bottom line will turn positive at IDR302bn in FY22F based on our model. The digital ecosystem is the key factor. We believe the right digital ecosystem and a definitive database are the two components for digital banks to succeed. With the massive and aggressive e-commerce platforms, many digital banks are looking to tap into these ecosystems due to their sizable databases. Nonetheless, the bank would also need to select which data can be used in the credit scoring model. This requires decent data analytics with the right personnel in place along with a knowledgeable management team as the approval time is a crucial factor in the mass-market segment. Solid and well-experienced management team. ARTO’s management team has proven experience in the mass market segment, from the Danamon Simpan Pinjam (DSP) era to BTPN’s Jenius digital savings initiative. Its shareholders will allow ARTO to reach more customers across different sectors and segments, from the GoTo digital ecosystem to sharia-based P2P lending. At the same time, the dominance of millennials as ARTO’s employees should help the bank to continuously develop and launch innovative digital products and services.
Focus on the mass-market segment. The c.64.0mn MSME business owners in Indonesia with knowledgeable teams are the low hanging fruit for ARTO. By partnering with the right digital ecosystem, ARTO can penetrate the high-yield loan segments, i.e. BNPL, merchants financing, and others. Combined with its low savings interest rate compared to its peers, NIM should touch 6.9% next year. All in all, FY22F’s net profits should reach IDR302bn based on our forecast.
Initiate coverage with a BUY, TP of IDR20,000. We utilize lifetime value as the valuation basis on ARTO assuming a total of 11mn customers. Downside risks to our TP are: 1) execution delays, 2) lower-than-expected customer acquisition, 3) potential Government intervention, 4) reversal in the policy rate that might impact its blended CoF, and 5) the non-exclusive partnership with GoTo and other possible digital ecosystems.
Last price (IDR) 15,100
Target Price (IDR) 20,000
Upside/Downside +32.5%
Previous Target Price (IDR) 0
Stock Statistics
Sector Banking
Bloomberg Ticker ARTO IJ
No of Shrs (mn) 13,856
Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 209,229/14,659
Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 277.6/19.4
Major shareholders (%)
PT Metamorfosis Ekosistem Indonesia 29.8
PT Dompet Karya Anak Bangsa 21.4
Estimated free float 48.8
EPS Consensus (IDR)
2021F 2022F 2023F
Danareksa (1.5) 23.8 47.2
Consensus 1.4 25.1 68.5
Danareksa/Cons (205.6) (5.1) (31.1)
ARTO relative to JCI Index
Source : Bloomberg
Eka Savitri
(62-21) 5091 4100 ext.3506
Andreas Kenny
(62-21) 5091 4100 ext.3509
Key Financials
Year to 31 Dec 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F
PPOP (IDRbn) (26) (148) 39 528 973
Net profit (IDRbn) (122) (190) (19) 302 599
EPS (IDR) (101.1) (22.5) (1.5) 23.8 47.2
EPS growth (%) 423.7 (77.8) (93.3) (1,682.6) 98.4
BVPS (IDR) 564.7 146.2 650.2 674.0 721.3
PER (x) (149.3) (671.5) (10,037.7) 634.3 319.7
PBV (x) 26.7 103.3 23.2 22.4 20.9
Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ROAE (%) (30.6) (19.8) (0.4) 3.6 6.8
Source : ARTO, Danareksa Estimates
Equity SNAPSHOT Friday, October 01, 2021
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
In addition to the budget approval, the govt also approve some new tax rates on the VAT and approve tax amnesty
rates for 2022.
• VAT is raised from 10% to 11%, effective from 1 April 2022. Then in 1 January 2025, the rate is raised to 12%.
• 0% VAT remains for exported goods and services.
• Tax amnesty rates:
a. For asset declaration from 1 January 1985 to 31 December 2015 will be imposed 6% for assets in Indonesia and overseas, if invested in the natural resources and sovereign bonds. Otherwise will be
imposed 8%. The program is effective from 1 January 2022 to 30 June 2022. Asset repatriation is at 30 September 2022 the latest.
b. For asset declaration dated from 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2022, will be imposed 12% for assets in Indonesia and overseas, if invested in the natural resources and sovereign bonds. Otherwise will be
imposed 14%. The program is effective from 1 January 2022 to 30 June 2022. Asset repatriation is at
30 September 2022 the latest.
MACROECONOMY
Budget 2022 approved: Unchanged deficit of 4.85% GDP
The Budget 2022 has been approved by the parliament with unchanged deficit from previous budget plan (RAPBN) at 4.85% of GDP. Economic growth is set at 5.2% next year, with inflation target 3%. No change in macro
assumptions vs RAPBN, while only slight difference in the budget posture. The govt revenue target is raised slightly by 0.3%, banking on 0.2% increase in tax revenue and 0.72% increase in non-tax revenue. While for the expenditure,
slight increase of 0.28% is from central govt expenditure.
Economic growth (%,yoy) 5.0-5.5 5.2
Inflation rate (%,yoy) 3.0 3.0
10-year govt bond yield (%) 6.82 6.8
IDR/USD exchange rate 14,350 14,350
Crude Oil price (USD/barrel) 63 63
Oil lifting (thousand barrel/day) 703,000 703,000
Gas lifting (thousand BOEPD) 1,036,000 1,036,000
Macroeconomic Assumptions2022 Budget
Plan2022 Budget
Government Revenue 1,840,661 1,846,137 0.30%
Domestic Revenue 1,840,080.6 1,845,556.8 0.30%
Tax Revenue 1,506,918.6 1,510,001.2 0.20%
Non-tax revenue 333,162.0 335,555.6 0.72%
Grant 579.9 579.9 0.00%
Government Expenditure 2,708,679.5 2,714,155.7 0.20%
Central government expenditure 1,938,266.1 1,943,742.3 0.28%
Regional transfer and village funds 770,413.5 770,413.5 0.00%
Primary Balance (462,152.2) (462,152.2) 0.00%
Budget surplus/(deficit) (868,019.0) (868,019.0) 0.00%
% of GDP -4.85 -4.85
2022 Budget Plan 2022 Budget %Budget Components
MARKET NEWS
Equity SNAPSHOT Friday, October 01, 2021
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
PMI rises to 52.2 in September 2021
The IHS Markit Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) posted 52.2 in September, up from 43.7 in August. This represented a return to expansion for the manufacturing sector following two
consecutive months of contraction. The rate at which the sector expanded was modest overall, but the index reading was comfortably above the long-run average.
Latest PMI data showed that both output and new orders returned to growth in September after two months
of steep contraction. Price pressures also persisted in September for manufacturers. Although the rate of input cost inflation eased slightly since August, it remained rapid overall, driven by rising raw material costs. As a
result, manufacturers continued to partly pass on these cost burdens to clients, with output price inflation accelerating to the fastest in almost three years. (IHS Markit)
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
Rating Price (Rp) Price Mkt Cap
Target Rp Bn 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021
Danareksa Universe 4.011.470 159.309 217.383 114 156 -31,5% 36,5% 25,2 18,5 11,1 9,8 2,4 2,2 9,5 12,5
Auto 222.660 16.164 17.169 399 424 -25,5% 6,2% 13,8 13,0 8,9 7,6 1,5 1,4 10,7 10,9
Astra International BUY 5.500 7.500 222.660 16.164 17.169 399 424 266 368 -25,5% 6,2% 13,8 13,0 8,9 7,6 1,5 1,4 10,7 10,9
Banks 1.325.315 53.225 66.970 405 510 -30,9% 25,8% 24,9 19,8 2,4 2,3 9,5 11,8
BCA HOLD 35.000 34.000 862.925 27.131 29.901 1.100 1.213 1.100 1.213 -5,0% 10,2% 31,8 28,9 N/A N/A 4,7 4,4 15,1 15,6
BNI BUY 5.375 8.000 100.237 3.280 7.083 176 380 176 380 -78,7% 115,9% 30,6 14,2 N/A N/A 0,9 0,9 2,8 6,3
Bank Tabungan Negara BUY 1.420 2.200 15.038 1.602 1.826 151 172 151 172 666,5% 14,0% 9,4 8,2 N/A N/A 0,8 0,7 7,5 9,0
Bank Mandiri BUY 6.150 8.000 287.000 17.119 21.964 367 471 367 471 -37,7% 28,3% 16,8 13,1 N/A N/A 1,5 1,5 8,7 11,4
BTPN HOLD 2.770 3.200 22.573 1.749 3.565 215 437 240 368 -32,0% 103,8% 12,9 6,3 N/A N/A 0,7 0,7 5,7 11,0
BTPS BUY 3.470 3.500 26.732 855 1.360 111 177 111 177 -38,9% 59,1% 31,3 19,7 N/A N/A 4,5 3,9 15,2 21,4
BPD Jatim BUY 720 850 10.811 1.489 1.271 99 85 99 85 8,1% -14,6% 7,3 8,5 N/A N/A 1,1 1,0 15,5 12,3
Cement 87.291 4.599 5.227 478 544 8,8% 13,7% 19,0 16,7 9,0 7,9 1,5 1,5 8,2 9,0
Indocement BUY 10.500 15.400 38.653 1.806 1.974 491 536 404 469 -1,6% 9,3% 21,4 19,6 16,8 14,9 1,7 1,7 7,9 8,6
Semen Indonesia BUY 8.200 11.800 48.638 2.792 3.253 471 548 357 397 16,7% 16,5% 17,4 15,0 6,5 5,6 1,4 1,4 8,4 9,3
Cigarettes 182.437 16.229 16.309 137 138 -34,0% 0,5% 11,2 11,2 6,4 6,6 2,0 2,0 18,3 17,8
Gudang Garam HOLD 32.550 32.000 62.629 7.648 7.597 3.975 3.948 4.260 4.057 -29,7% -0,7% 8,2 8,2 4,7 4,6 1,1 1,0 13,9 12,5
HM Sampoerna HOLD 1.030 1.340 119.808 8.581 8.712 74 75 82 73 -37,5% 1,5% 14,0 13,8 8,2 9,0 3,8 3,9 25,6 28,3
Construction 66.851 11.162- 1.486 -150 20 -233,8% -113,3% (6,0) 45,0 22,12 11,01 0,9 0,8 13,7- 1,8
Wijaya Karya BUY 1.210 1.800 10.854 186 601 21 67 16 88 -91,9% 223,5% 58,4 18,1 17,9 7,0 0,7 0,6 1,1 3,6
Pembangunan Perumahan BUY 1.090 1.800 6.758 138 397 22 64 36 74 -85,2% 189,0% 49,1 17,0 11,2 7,7 0,5 0,4 1,0 2,7
Adhi Karya BUY 965 1.000 3.436 24 167 7 47 -11 132 -96,4% 597,3% 143,3 20,6 10,3 8,2 0,5 0,5 0,4 2,4
Waskita Karya BUY 835 1.200 11.334 -7.379 -1.040 -544 -77 -314 25 -886,5% -85,9% (1,5) (10,9) 360,4 17,4 0,8 0,8 (46,7) (7,5)
Waskita Beton BUY 154 210 4.060 -4.760 -77 -181 -3 -34 13 -690,5% -98,4% (0,9) (52,6) 43,0- 8,6 0,8 0,7 (70,7) (1,4)
Wika Beton BUY 258 430 2.249 128 265 15 30 10 37 -75,0% 106,6% 17,6 8,5 8,2 5,1 0,7 0,6 3,7 7,5
Jasa Marga BUY 3.880 5.100 28.161 501 1.173 69 162 83 228 -77,3% 134,0% 56,2 24,0 14,1 11,8 1,5 1,4 2,7 6,0
Consumer 359.592 22.478 21.732 273 264 13,2% -3,3% 16,0 16,5 11,8 10,6 4,1 3,7 26,5 23,3
Indofood CBP BUY 8.350 12.500 97.377 6.587 6.746 565 578 557 607 30,7% 2,4% 14,8 14,4 15,4 12,4 3,4 3,0 24,5 22,3
Indofood BUY 6.350 9.000 55.756 6.456 6.433 735 733 696 653 31,5% -0,3% 8,6 8,7 6,8 6,1 1,4 1,3 16,5 15,2
Unilever HOLD 3.950 4.500 150.693 7.164 6.091 188 160 190 198 -3,1% -15,0% 21,0 24,7 14,8 14,2 26,7 25,0 131,1 104,4
Kino Indonesia SELL 2.100 2.100 3.000 212 198 148 138 148 138 -59,3% -6,7% 14,2 15,2 10,8 9,8 1,1 1,0 8,0 7,1
Mayora Indah BUY 2.360 2.900 52.767 2.061 2.264 92 101 84 94 3,0% 9,9% 25,6 23,3 15,6 14,5 4,7 4,2 19,7 19,0
Pharmaceutical 103.637 3.724 4.087 45 49 12,8% 9,7% 27,8 25,4 19,3 17,6 3,7 3,5 13,8 14,1
Sido Muncul BUY 770 930 23.276 934 1.097 31 36 30 32 15,6% 17,5% 24,9 21,2 21,8 20,0 7,4 7,2 30,0 34,3
Kalbe Farma BUY 1.430 1.900 67.031 2.733 2.890 58 62 57 60 9,0% 5,7% 24,5 23,2 16,6 15,5 3,8 3,5 16,4 15,7
Kimia Farma SELL 2.400 1.500 13.330 56 99 10 18 10 18 -543,5% 75,7% 236,3 134,5 32,2 25,0 1,8 1,8 0,8 1,3
Heavy Equipment 96.984 6.003 8.805 1.609 2.360 -46,9% 46,7% 16,2 11,0 5,8 4,3 1,6 1,4 10,0 13,6
United Tractors BUY 26.000 30.000 96.984 6.003 8.805 1.609 2.360 1.922 2.648 -46,9% 46,7% 16,2 11,0 5,8 4,3 1,6 1,4 10,0 13,6
Industrial Estate 12.919 1.145 925 18 15 -36,6% -19,2% 11,3 14,0 9,5 7,4 0,9 0,9 7,7 6,2
Puradelta Lestari BUY 194 250 9.350 1.348 1.158 28 24 18 19 1,0% -14,1% 6,9 8,1 9,7 8,0 1,4 1,4 20,7 17,7
Bekasi Fajar BUY 127 170 1.225 -115 -93 -12 -10 11 27 -130,3% -19,1% (10,7) (13,2) 7,1 4,5 0,3 0,3 (2,6) (2,0)
Surya Semesta BUY 498 800 2.343 -88 -140 -19 -30 -21 -16 -195,3% 59,1% (26,6) (16,7) 10,9 9,8 0,6 0,6 (2,3) (3,7)
Media 42.273 2.891 3.509 97 118 -13,0% 21,4% 14,6 12,0 8,2 6,9 2,4 2,1 17,1 18,8
Media Nusantara Citra BUY 835 1.450 12.567 1.743 2.323 116 154 130 180 -22,7% 33,3% 7,2 5,4 4,1 3,0 0,9 0,8 13,5 15,4
Surya Citra Media HOLD 2.010 2.200 29.706 1.148 1.186 78 80 79 85 7,3% 3,3% 25,9 25,0 16,5 15,2 9,7 7,4 28,8 33,4
Mining 248.623 7.921 14.392 89 162 -35,0% 81,7% 31,4 17,3 8,1 7,1 1,7 1,6 5,5 9,6
Adaro Energy BUY 1.760 1.700 56.295 2.137 4.212 67 132 190 182 -62,6% 97,1% 26,3 13,4 3,7 3,6 1,0 0,9 3,7 7,0
Timah HOLD 1.510 1.700 11.246 -388 345 -52 46 -39 59 -44,1% -189,0% (29,0) 32,6 18,0 9,4 2,2 2,0 (7,5) 6,5
Vale Indonesia BUY 4.590 6.300 45.608 1.204 1.939 121 195 127 153 48,4% 61,0% 37,9 23,5 11,2 9,9 1,6 1,5 4,3 6,7
Aneka Tambang BUY 2.290 3.200 55.030 1.149 2.122 48 88 38 49 492,9% 84,6% 47,9 25,9 21,6 18,5 2,9 2,8 6,2 10,9
Bukit Asam BUY 2.760 3.300 31.797 2.387 3.097 207 269 213 314 -41,2% 29,7% 13,3 10,3 8,9 5,6 1,8 1,6 13,3 16,7
Indo Tambangraya Megah BUY 20.800 16.500 23.502 574 2.009 508 1.778 1.531 1.483 -68,6% 250,0% 40,9 11,7 5,9 5,8 1,8 1,8 4,5 15,7
Harum Energy SELL 9.300 4.100 25.144 858 668 317 247 116 126 227,9% -22,2% 29,3 37,7 31,6 29,5 5,6 5,4 19,5 14,6
Petrochemical 246.187 2.603 6.011 23 52 35,3% 130,9% 94,6 41,0 19,1 18,4 5,6 5,5 6,0 13,6
Barito Pacif ic HOLD 965 1.100 90.466 1.789 2.543 19 27 14 12 17,1% 42,2% 50,6 35,6 12,1 11,2 5,3 5,2 10,5 14,7
Chandra Asri Petrochemical BUY 7.200 12.000 155.721 814 3.468 38 160 78 87 105,6% 325,8% 191,2 44,9 34,2 33,0 5,9 5,7 3,1 12,8
Plantation 41.577 2.583 4.428 89 153 293,2% 71,4% 16,1 9,4 6,2 5,4 1,1 1,1 7,3 11,8
Astra Agro Lestari BUY 9.775 18.000 18.814 833 1.762 433 915 518 618 294,8% 111,5% 22,6 10,7 7,0 5,9 1,0 0,9 4,4 8,9
Dharma Satya BUY 540 900 5.724 477 839 45 79 24 44 165,0% 75,9% 12,0 6,8 3,8 3,3 1,4 1,3 12,5 20,2
Saw it Sumbermas BUY 915 1.900 8.715 577 825 61 87 62 71 4708,3% 43,0% 15,1 10,6 6,2 5,9 2,0 1,8 13,9 18,0
PP London Sumatra BUY 1.220 1.900 8.324 696 1.002 102 147 61 68 174,0% 44,0% 12,0 8,3 7,8 6,8 0,9 0,9 8,0 11,2
Poultry 130.308 4.939 7.530 163 248 -9,6% 52,5% 26,4 17,3 17,2 13,7 3,7 3,4 16,9 20,4
Charoen Pokphand BUY 6.425 8.400 105.357 3.842 5.316 234 324 188 224 5,7% 38,4% 27,4 19,8 19,7 16,9 4,7 4,2 17,6 22,4
Japfa Comfeed BUY 1.975 2.350 23.160 1.136 2.013 97 172 38 93 -32,2% 77,2% 20,4 11,5 12,4 8,9 2,2 2,0 10,6 17,9
Malindo Feedmill BUY 800 900 1.791 -39 201 -17 90 -60 35 -125,7% -615,4% (45,9) 8,9 11,9 7,2 0,9 0,9 (2,0) 10,1
Property 79.062 2.809 4.797 23 39 -60,1% 70,8% 28,1 16,5 10,9 8,4 1,0 0,9 3,8 5,8
Alam Sutera BUY 169 220 3.321 -554 363 -28 18 20 22 -164,5% -165,5% (6,0) 9,1 7,4 6,0 0,3 0,3 (5,3) 3,4
Bumi Serpong Damai BUY 1.000 1.450 21.171 506 1.368 24 65 67 123 -73,7% 170,4% 41,8 15,5 9,4 5,5 0,7 0,6 2,0 4,3
Ciputra Development BUY 935 1.450 17.354 1.778 1.278 96 69 43 46 53,5% -28,1% 9,8 13,6 12,1 10,3 1,1 1,0 11,3 7,7
Pakuw on Jati HOLD 484 520 23.309 986 1.630 20 34 26 33 -61,9% 65,3% 23,6 14,3 11,2 9,0 1,5 1,4 6,4 9,9
Summarecon BUY 845 1.100 13.906 93 158 6 10 6 11 -81,9% 69,9% 149,5 88,0 15,7 15,7 1,9 1,8 1,2 2,1
Utility 28.847 124- 222 -5 9 -112,9% -279,3% (233,4) 130,2 4,0 3,6 0,7 0,7 0,3- 0,5
PGN BUY 1.190 1.700 28.847 -124 222 -5 9 167 163 -112,9% -279,3% (233,4) 130,2 4,0 3,6 0,7 0,7 (0,3) 0,5
Retail 46.942 833- 1.588 -19 37 -121,0% -290,6% (56,4) 29,6 12,6 5,8 3,1 2,7 5,2- 9,7
Mitra Adi Perkasa BUY 780 900 12.948 -554 377 -33 23 -36 37 -159,4% -168,1% (23,4) 34,3 7,8 3,5 2,5 2,1 (9,8) 6,7
Ramayana BUY 685 850 4.861 -139 173 -20 24 -28 43 -121,5% -224,5% (35,0) 28,1 27,3 5,9 1,3 1,2 (3,6) 4,5
Matahari Department Store SELL 2.800 1.350 7.353 -873 328 -332 125 -232 187 -163,9% -137,6% (8,4) 22,4 11,7 3,8 7,3 4,8 (63,3) 25,9
Ace Hardw are BUY 1.270 1.700 21.781 733 710 43 41 47 60 -27,6% -3,1% 29,7 30,7 19,8 15,7 4,0 3,7 14,6 12,6
Technology 88.633 1.349- 1.662- -13 -16 -108,5% 23,2% (65,7) (53,3) 1,8 1,5 0,8 0,7 1,3- 1,5-
Bukalapak BUY 860 1.400 88.633 -1.349 -1.662 -13 -16 -13 -16 -51,7% 23,2% (65,7) (53,3) 53,8- 46,9- 55,1 5,6 (97,6) (19,0)
Telco 568.937 24.349 32.507 129 172 1,0% 33,5% 23,4 17,5 6,3 5,9 3,7 3,5 16,3 20,7
Telekomunikasi Indonesia BUY 3.690 4.600 365.540 20.804 25.725 210 260 232 260 11,5% 23,7% 17,6 14,2 5,6 5,3 3,5 3,4 20,5 24,4
Indosat BUY 6.650 7.800 36.136 -717 842 -132 155 -197 -3 145,7% 217,4% (50,4) 42,9 4,3 3,9 3,0 3,0 (5,8) 7,0
XL Axiata BUY 3.040 3.300 32.603 372 1.042 35 97 98 157 -47,9% 180,3% 87,7 31,3 3,4 3,1 1,5 1,4 1,8 4,7
Tow er Bersama SELL 2.960 2.400 67.065 1.010 1.606 45 71 49 84 23,2% 59,0% 66,4 41,8 20,5 16,4 10,6 9,0 17,8 23,3
Sarana Menara Nusantara BUY 1.325 1.500 67.594 2.881 3.293 56 65 56 60 23,0% 14,3% 23,5 20,5 15,2 15,2 6,5 5,9 30,1 30,2
Transportation 14.892 97 148 14 21 -57,0% 52,8% 153,5 100,4 78,9 50,6 6,5 6,3 4,4 6,3
Adi Sarana Armada BUY 3.430 3.400 11.653 87 191 26 56 26 56 -20,9% 119,5% 133,9 61,0 15,6 13,9 9,1 7,9 7,0 13,8
Indonesia Kendaraan Terminal HOLD 595 600 1.082 17 55 9 30 9 30 -87,4% 224,6% 63,6 19,6 14,5 4,5 0,9 0,9 1,5 4,7
Jasa Armada Indonesia HOLD 408 425 2.156 80 93 15 18 17 18 -11,1% 16,3% 27,0 23,2 12,0 10,7 1,9 1,8 7,2 8,0
Trade 17.504 1.017 1.203 253 300 42,0% 18,3% 17,2 14,5 11,2 9,5 2,0 1,9 11,9 13,3
AKR Corporindo BUY 4.360 3.700 17.504 1.017 1.203 253 300 253 300 42,0% 18,3% 17,2 14,5 11,2 9,5 2,0 1,9 11,9 13,3
EV / EBITDA (x) PBV (x) ROE
Equity
Valuation Net profit, Rp bn EPS (Rp) Core EPS (Rp) EPS Growth PER (x)
Equity SNAPSHOT Friday, October 01, 2021
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
LEADERS Price as on
Code 30-Sep-21 29-Sep-21 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating
Harum Energy HRUM 9.300 8.075 15,2 43,6 91,8 212,1 SELL
Jasa Armada Indonesia IPCM 408 378 7,9 4,6 4,1 14,6 HOLD
Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 20.800 19.525 6,5 11,1 28,0 50,2 BUY
Bank Central Asia BBCA 35.000 32.900 6,4 6,4 6,6 3,4 HOLD
Ciputra Development CTRA 935 885 5,6 3,3 6,3 (5,1) BUY
Indonesia Kendaraan
Terminal
IPCC 595 565 5,3 1,7 (1,7) 12,3 HOLD
AKR Corporindo AKRA 4.360 4.150 5,1 6,3 12,7 37,1 BUY
Bukit Asam PTBA 2.760 2.640 4,5 14,0 26,6 (1,8) BUY
Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM 3.690 3.530 4,5 3,7 10,5 12,9 BUY
XL Axiata EXCL 3.040 2.940 3,4 2,0 13,9 11,4 BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
LAGGARDS Price as on Code 30-Sep-21 29-Sep-21 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating
Semen Indonesia SMGR 8.200 8.475 (3,2) (3,5) (9,1) (34,0) BUY
Waskita Beton WSBP 154 158 (2,5) 6,9 14,1 (43,8) BUY
Indocement INTP 10.500 10.700 (1,9) (0,2) (5,4) (27,5) BUY
Vale Indonesia INCO 4.590 4.670 (1,7) (3,4) (8,7) (10,0) BUY
Barito Pacific BRPT 965 980 (1,5) (3,0) (5,4) (12,3) HOLD
Wika Beton WTON 258 262 (1,5) 0,8 9,3 (33,2) BUY
Timah TINS 1.510 1.530 (1,3) 1,0 0,7 1,7 HOLD
Tower Bersama TBIG 2.960 2.990 (1,0) (3,6) (2,0) 81,6 SELL
Aneka Tambang ANTM 2.290 2.310 (0,9) - (4,2) 18,3 BUY
Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 1.190 1.200 (0,8) 5,3 14,4 (28,1) BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
COVERAGE PERFORMANCE
Equity SNAPSHOT Friday, October 01, 2021
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
PREVIOUS REPORTS
▪ Paxel: Amplifying local food businesses nationwide
▪ Aneka Tambang: 1H21: Buoyant earnings – slightly above ▪ Adaro Energy: Buyback to provide good returns to shareholders
▪ Bank Raya Indonesia: The Digital Trailblazer ▪ Covid-19: Weekly Update: Stronger recovery
▪ United Tractors: Strong Komatsu sales volume in Aug 21
▪ Bukalapak.com: Staged for hefty growth; takeaways ▪ Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia: A Hidden Digital Gem
▪ Strategy: On Firm Ground ▪ Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa: Strong monthly sales lifted by loosening of PPKM
▪ Waskita Karya: Adopting 8 strategies for transformation
▪ Covid-19: Weekly Update: Managing relaxations ▪ Cigarette: Stricter measures on cigarette sale
▪ Ace Hardware Indonesia: Aug20 Rebound, Better Figures to Come ▪ Astra International:Aug 21: Strong car sales with solid market share
▪ Gudang Garam: More headwinds ahead
▪ HM Sampoerna: Improvements seen but challenges remain ▪ Adi Sarana Armada: Update post the 9.9 ecommerce shopping event
▪ Covid-19: Weekly Update: Persistent recovery ▪ Aneka Tambang: Still Alluring
▪ Pembangunan Perumahan: Conservatively optimistic ▪ Wijaya Karya Beton: Set to pick up
▪ Danareksa Research Institute: August 2021 Consumer Confidence: Improving Consumer Optimism
▪ Construction:Promising future opportunities ▪ Tower Bersama Infrastructure: Consolidating new towers with earnings dent
▪ Covid-19: Weekly Update: Still manageable ▪ Bukit Asam: Supported by strong coal prices
▪ Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur: Rosy outlook despite the threat to margins
▪ Indofood Sukses Makmur: Still attractive ▪ Wijaya Karya: Lower targets but still attractive
▪ Adaro Energy: Benefitting from solid coal prices ▪ Bukalapak.com: Solid result on Mitras strategy
▪ Pembangunan Perumahan: Supported by divestment gains ▪ Surya Semesta Internusa: Losses from limited industrial land sales
▪ Telkom Indonesia: A factory of value opportunities
▪ Timah: The strong tin price boosted earnings ▪ Waskita Beton Precast: Limited ability to execute the revenues
▪ Alam Sutra Realty: Breaking the streak of losses ▪ Matahari Department Store: Stellar 1H21, Markedly Improved Operations
▪ Wijaya Karya Beton: Flattish bottom-line growth due to lower revenues
▪ Dharma Satya Nusantara: Slow 1H21, All set For 2H21 Jump ▪ Summarecon Agung: Improving core net profits from higher revenues
▪ Covid-19: Weekly Update: Entering a better phase ▪ Pakuwon Jati : A slow but sure recovery
▪ United Tractors: Soft Komatsu sales volume in Jul 21
▪ AKR Corporindo: Continued strong start with SEZ title for JIIPE ▪ Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur: Forex losses put pressure on 1H21 earnings
▪ Indofood Sukses Makmur: Solid across the board ▪ Sarana Menara Nusantara:Biz diversification bearing fruits
▪ Elang Mahkota Teknologi: The E-agle has landed
Equity SNAPSHOT Friday, October 01, 2021
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
PT BRI Danareksa Sekuritas
Gedung BRI II Lt.23, Jl. Jenderal Sudirman Kav.44-46 Bendungan Hilir, Tanah Abang – Jakarta Pusat 10210 Indonesia Indonesia Tel (62 21) 50914100 Fax (62 21) 2520990
Equity Research Team S
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Maria Renata
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3513 Construction, Toll Road, Cement
Stefanus Darmagiri
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3530 Auto, Coal, Heavy Equip, Metal
Natalia Sutanto
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3508 Consumer, Tobacco, Pharmacy
Niko Margaronis
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3512 Telco, Tower, Utilities
Helmy Kristanto
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3500 Head of Research, Strategy
Eka Savitri
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3506 Banking
Victor Stefano
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3503 Poultry, Property, Industrial Estate
Ehrliech Suhartono
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Yunita L. Nababan
(62-21) 50914100 ext. 3145
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Wisnu Budhiargo
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Kharim Syamsuddin
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3507 Research Associate
Adeline Solaiman
(62-21) 50914100 ext. 3503
Ignatius Teguh Prayoga
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3511 Basic Industries, Port
Andreas Kenny
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3509 Retail, Media, Plantation
Thalia Kadharusman
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3124
Muhammad Naufal Yunas
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3507 Healthcare
Equity SNAPSHOT Friday, October 01, 2021
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
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