FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 10.12.18

Day Lightning Flooding Damaging

Wind/Hail Tornado

Excessive

Heat Fog Wildfire Rip Currents

Fri South Florida

Panhandle Rivers

South Florida Panhandle East Coast West Coast

Sat Southeast

Florida Panhandle

Rivers

Panhandle East Coast West Coast

Sun South Florida

Panhandle Rivers

Panhandle East Coast West Coast

Mon Statewide

Panhandle Rivers

South Florida Panhandle East Coast West Coast

Tue Statewide

Panhandle Rivers

Statewide Panhandle & East Coast West Coast

Forecast Surface Weather Maps for Friday (left), Saturday (middle), and Sunday (right)

Chipola River Near Altha Hydrograph Cumulative Rainfall Totals Through Tuesday

Friday, October 12, 2018 5 Day Statewide Weather Outlook

No Threat Low Threat Moderate Threat High Threat

FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 10.12.18

…Sunny Skies, Cool Temperatures, And No Chance Of Rainfall In The Wake Of Major Hurricane Michael In North Florida…A Few Rivers In The Panhandle Will Be In Flood

Stage This Weekend…Cold Front Stalls Across South Florida Keeping Heat, Humidity, And Afternoon Thunderstorms In The Forecast…

Fall has finally arrived across the region, at least for a few days. As Hurricane Michael departed the region, a cold front moved through bringing cooler and drier air to the northern half of the state. Through Sunday, skies will be sunny with high temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s. There will be no chance of rainfall and humidity will be low. The overnights will be quite cool, with inland locations falling into the middle to upper 50s with the coast reaching the lower 60s. Winds will be light and out of the north.

By Monday, an approaching cold front located across the Mississippi River Valley will shift winds back out of the south and allow some heat and humidity to return. High temperatures will be back into the upper 80s to near 90. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon, but severe weather is not expected. Isolated showers will be possible along the coast during the overnight hours with low temperatures in the upper 60s or lower 70s. The heat and humidity on Tuesday afternoon will push feels-like temperatures close to 100 degrees.

Central & South Florida: Much drier air in the wake of a cold front, which is moving slowly through South Florida this afternoon and will stall in the area tonight, will continue to spread south through Central and Southwest Florida. With this frontal passage, expect clear skies for Central Florida and a 30-50% chance for showers and a few thunderstorms across mainly southeast portions of South Florida and the Keys through tonight. Temperatures tonight will be noticeably cooler

compared to previous nights as lows drop into the upper 50s to mid 60s north of I-4 and upper 60s to mid 70s for most of Central and South Florida, with the exception of metro Southeast Florida and the Keys where cloud cover will only allow lows to fall into the mid to upper 70s. On Saturday, pleasant dry weather with ample sunshine is expected for Central Florida and Southwest Florida, with partly cloudy skies forecast

North Florida:

Low Temperatures

Tonight

Chance of Rain Monday

FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 10.12.18

for Southeast Florida and the Keys as the weak stalled front keeps rain chances in the 20-30% range. Temperatures on Saturday will be similar to Friday with highs again climbing into the upper 80s during the afternoon, but with lower humidity it will feel very pleasant for any outdoor activities for most areas. Overnight lows will also be similar to Friday, ranging from the upper 60s near the Villages/Daytona to the upper 70s near Palm Beach/Miami/Keys. High pressure over the Southeast will move off the U.S. East Coast on Sunday and Monday, which will result in an easterly wind flow over Florida allowing for increasing moisture and rain chances to return over the peninsula through the middle of next week. Isolated to scattered showers and potentially a few afternoon storms, mainly inland, will be possible each day. Temperatures will remain a couple degrees above average with daytime highs near 90 each day and overnight lows in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Tropics: Michael is now a post-tropical system. The National Hurricane Center issued the last advisory on the system this morning as it moved off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and will move eastward towards Europe. Hurricane Leslie is racing off to the east-northeast at 32 mph a few hundred miles south of the Azores. Leslie has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph and is currently a Category 1. Leslie will be making a transition to a post-tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours

before it moves into Portugal and Spain where it will finally dissipate. Leslie first developed 20 days ago in the northern Atlantic. Tropical Storm Nadine continues to weaken across the tropical Atlantic, about halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The circulation of Nadine has been lacking shower and thunderstorm activity over the last 12 hours due to strong wind shear. Nadine is forecast to dissipate entirely within the next 24 hours. Nadine poses no threat to land. A very weak area of low pressure attempted to develop in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. This weak system will drift westward into Central America early next week and poses no threat to Florida. Further development of this system is no longer anticipated and the odds over the next five days are near 0%. No other tropical development is expected across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, or Atlantic during the next five days. For more information regarding the tropics, please consult the National Hurricane Center. Hydrology & Flooding: All water levels in Northeast Florida and the Peninsula remain near normal. Rainfall totals of 3-8” and a swath of 8-12” extending from Panama City to Marianna from Hurricane Michael will

FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 10.12.18

result in some riverine flooding on the lower Choctawhatchee River near Bruce/Ebro, all of the Chipola River, and the Apalachicola River starting Friday and continuing through next week, with most crests occurring on Saturday or Sunday before gradually receding. The Econfina River in northern Bay County crested at record levels this morning, impacting portions of SR-20 down past Bennett to Deer Point Lake. At this time, only minor flooding along the lakeshore is expected on Deer Point Lake. On the Choctawhatchee at Bruce, portions of a few roads near the river in Walton County and structures in the area not elevated begin flooding. Portions of Choctaw Road in Washington County begin to flood along with Strickland Road in the far southwestern portion of the county. On the Chipola at Marianna, flooding is mostly confined to boat ramps and low lying areas near the Florida Caverns. At Altha, water will reach the highway 274 bridge and approach the road, and water will start to affect houses and mobile homes in the flood plain downstream from CR274. Downstream affects at Wewahitchka will depend on the amount of water coming from the Chipola and Apalachicola Rivers, but should be minor. Flooding on the Apalachicola River at Blountstown should be confined to boat ramps and campgrounds. For more information on specific river stages, please visit the Southeast River Forecast Center here.

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 14.22 feet as of yesterday, which is 0.78 feet below normal for this time of year. Over the past week, the elevation has fallen by 0.15’. Additional drops in elevation are expected over the next several days.

Rip Currents & Marine Hazards:

The rip current risk this weekend will be lower than last, but still elevated. With light to breezy easterly winds along the east coast, a moderate risk of rip currents is expected at Atlantic beaches, particularly from Cape Canaveral to the south. Winds will be offshore along the West Coast keeping the rip current risk low. In the Panhandle, lingering swells from Michael and breezy onshore winds early next week will keep the rip current risk moderate to high. Remember, always swim within sight of a lifeguard and follow beach warning flags. Rip currents can still occur on low risk days! For the latest rip current forecast, please visit https://www.weather.gov/beach.

FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 10.12.18

Red Tide conditions have improved along most Gulf Coast beaches this week. Along the west coast of the Peninsula, this has been due to persistent offshore winds helping to keep the highest concentrations offshore. However, high concentrations were still found near Tampa Bay and Manatee County has a Beach Hazards Statement in effect through at least this evening for possible respiratory irritation.

In the Panhandle, some concentrations are still expected to exist in Panama City Bay, but Hurricane Michael has drastically cooled and mixed up the ocean diluting concentrations. Low to moderate concentrations are now found near Key West and the Lower Keys and moderate concentrations still exists across much of the Treasure Coast and Southeast Florida. Click here for a daily status map of Red Tide observations.

Florida NCAA Division 1 Football Forecast

*All times listed are in EDT.*

USF @ Tulsa (7:00 PM Friday in Tulsa, OK)

Cloudy skies with cool temperatures starting in the upper 50s at kickoff, falling into the lower 50s by the

end of the game. Winds will be light out of the north.

UF @ Vanderbilt (12:00 PM Saturday in Nashville, TN)

Mostly cloudy skies with a 20% chance of showers. Temperatures will remain near 60 during the game

with light northeast winds.

FAMU @ NC A&T (1:00 PM Saturday in Greensboro, NC)

Partly cloudy skies with pleasant temperatures in the middle 60s. Winds will be out of the north around 5

mph.

B-CU @ SC State (2:00 PM Saturday in Orangeburg, SC)

Sunny skies with temperatures in the middle 70s. Northeast winds around 5-10 mph.

UCF @ Memphis (3:30 PM Saturday in Memphis, TN)

Mostly cloudy skies with rain chances rising to 60% by the end of the game. Temperatures will be in the

middle 60s with a east wind around 5 mph.

UM @ UVA (7:00 PM Saturday in Charlottesville, VA)

Mostly clear skies with temperatures falling from the lower 50s into the upper 40s. Winds north around 5

mph.

FIU vs. Middle Tennessee State (7:30 PM Saturday in Miami, FL)

Warm and humid with partly to mostly cloudy skies and a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures in the middle 80s through the game with light easterly winds.

FSU – BYE WEEK

FAU – BYE WEEK

FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 10.12.18

NWS Mobile Daily Hazards NWS Tallahassee Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Jacksonville Daily Hazards NWS Melbourne Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Tampa Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Miami Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Key West Daily Hazards

For the official National Weather Service forecast, please click on the following cities: Pensacola Panama City Tallahassee Gainesville Jacksonville Daytona Beach

Orlando Tampa Fort Myers West Palm Beach Miami Key West

Click here for the latest watches, warnings, and advisories from The National Weather Service

For coastal and offshore forecasts throughout Florida and Georgia, please click here.

Stay safe and have a good weekend! Amy Godsey, Chief State Meteorologist Michael Spagnolo, Deputy State Meteorologist State Meteorological Support Unit Florida Division of Emergency Management www.FloridaDisaster.org