From Aquino to Obama: Presidential Time in the Philippines and the U.S.

Mark Thompson, Southeast Asian Research Centre (SEARC) and Department of Asian & International Studies,

City University of Hong Kong

Presentation to APISA 5Regional Integration in Europe and Asia

in the 21st Century24-25 November 2011

Overseas Chinese UniversityTaichung, Taiwan

Does anybody know what time it is?

• Stephen Skowronek’s presidential “time”– Timing of presidency– Relationship to predecessors– Recurrent cycles

• More structuralist– Upends Neutstadt’s personal model– Ideology, interests, institutional arrangements– Position within ‘regime’ key

You can’t compare!!

• The “1st” to “3rd World” – a sacrilege!– Imperial power to a post-colonial society - absurd!– Spanish King with a German Hanoverian - nein!– Apples and mangos - a no go!– (Well, at least the same national bird)

But what if we did it anyway?

• “Test” patterns of presidentialism– in varied contexts– strength and relevance of institutional variable

• Turns largest area specialist literature– into generalizable social science

• Philippine colonialism and presidential model

Presidential regimes

• Formal institutions– Also social bases (e.g. party alignments)

• Regime building– Reconstructionist

• Orthodox innovation (or exhaustion)– (Dis)articulation

• Opposition– Preemption

What time is it for Aquino?

• Mother’s son– Takes up reformist narrative

• Arroyo’s failed presidency as foil– Corrupt contrast

• Performance not stellar– But narrative solid

Aquino as “articulator”

• Revives reformist “narrative”– After Arroyo’s “apostasy”

• A good dynast– As opposed to Arroyo’s cynical dynasticism

• Key is belief in his sincerity– But how long will that serve him– Regime renewal or exhaustion?

Aquino and Ramos

• Ramos considered best post-Marcos president– Implements reforms after instability

• Aquino brings stability too– After illegitimacy of Arroyo

• Ramos “success” doesn’t help poor– Estrada his populist successor– If reformism fails– populism as alternative regime?

And Obama?

• Long unclear if was a “reconstructionist”– Or preemptive president

• Narrative ambiguous– “change we can believe in”– Attempt to found a new regime?– Or create bi-partistanship?

• Preemptive turn– Welfarism forgotten

“Mongrel” politics

• Obama can’t accept prevailing regime– But opposing it too much risks implosion– As massive mid-term losses suggest

• Now moving to political center– While portraying Republicans as extremist

• Tea Party an effort to revive Reaganism– But extremism makes preemption easier– Key to Obama’s re-election

Obama and Clinton

• Both ran “negative campaigns”– Against failing of Bush administrations– no clear positive alternative

• Both overestimated their mandate– Backlash against “socialist” health care– Republican victories reaffirming the “faith”

• But Republicans overplayed hand before– Also against Obama?– Or will Republican regime be revived?

Ideology

• Foundational ideology– Anti-statism in U.S.– Reformism in Philippines

• Preemptive strategies– Smart government (Clinton)– Populism (Estrada, FPJ)

• End of regime possible– Radicalization of Republicans– Corruption of reformers

Interests

• Neo-liberalism in U.S.– Big business/Wall street – Religious right– “Tea party” unites them

• Reformism in the Philippines– Makati Business Club– Catholic Church– Middle Class activists unite them

Institutional arrangements

• Changes in U.S. system in new “regime”– Conservative supermajority in Congress– Conservative dominance in Supreme Court– Increasing polarization of political parties– Media politicized

• And post-Marcos Philippines– Multi-party system– House shifts, Senate independence– Judicial check– Strong military influence

Performance v. Narrative

• Obama– Strong record– Competent cabinet– Weak narrative– Uncertain re-election

• Aquino– Weak performance– Administration infighting– Strong narrative

Same, same or different?

• US regimes since Jefferson– Pre-Marcos, Marcos, post-Marcos

• Aquino revives reformism– Obama pre-empts Reaganism

• Estrada’s fall through coup– Nixon’s institutionalized

• Philippine parties more fluid– US parties increasingly ideological– Behind “clientelism” are narratives

El demonio de las comparaciones

• Rizal sees ‘spectre of comparison’– Despite socio-economic gap– And US Philippines cultural differences– Presidentialism ‘bedeviled’ by similar logic

• Presidency structured– Limits presidents’ choices– to articulation of/antagonism towards– regime narrative– ‘Performance’ as ‘role playing’

Thanks/Salamat

And I was walking down the street one dayA pretty lady looked at me and said her diamond watch had stopped cold deadAnd I saidDoes anybody really know what time it isDoes anybody really careIf so I can't imagine whyabout timeWe've all got time enough to cryOh no, no, no, no, no, no nooooooooo