from cyber-societies to cyber-nations
DESCRIPTION
The Internet, and the concept of cyberspace, has changed many aspects of human relations in recent years. One of the most important trends is emerging groups of people with common interests or aims which creates a special kind of society in cyberspace that we call cyber-society. The interesting characteristics of such societies, including how the society is created, how the people find each other, how they interact and share interests and ideas, and how the society grows or falls make this area a unique one to study and understand. According to the fact that this is a strong trend today, the question is: What will be the future of cyber-societies? In this article, a new concept, “Cyber-nation” is introduced and its various aspects are discussed as a probable future of the cyber-societies. The author tends to describe various effects of emerging cyber-nations in politics, economy, society and international relations.TRANSCRIPT
From Cyber-Societies to Cyber-NationsHow the technology will shape the world in the future
KHANDAN, Farzad Futures Studies Research CenterIKIU, [email protected]
21st WFSF World Conference – Bucharest, Romania - 2013June 27, 2013
What is changing?
Some Trends
Internet Users
Dec. 31, 2000 Latest Data0
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
AfricaAsiaEuropeMiddle EastNorth AmericaLatin America / CaribbeanOceania / AustraliaWORLD TOTAL
Source: www.internetworldstats.com
Internet World Users
Internet Users
World Regions Penetration(% Population)
Growth2000-2012
Users %of Table
Africa 15.6 % 3,606.7 % 7.0 %
Asia 27.5 % 841.9 % 44.8 %
Europe 63.2 % 393.4 % 21.5 %
Middle East 40.2 % 2,639.9 % 3.7 %
North America 78.6 % 153.3 % 11.4 %
Latin America / Caribbean 42.9 % 1,310.8 % 10.6 %
Oceania / Australia 67.6 % 218.7 % 1.0 %
WORLD TOTAL 34.3 % 566.4 % 100.0 %
Source: www.internetworldstats.com
Facebook Users in Regions
March, 2011 March, 20120
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
700,000,000
800,000,000
900,000,000
EuropeAsiaNorth AmericaSouth AmericaCentral AmericaAfricaMiddle EastOceania / AustraliaCaribbean, theWorld Total
Source: www.internetworldstats.com
Facebook Penetration
1-Jan-11 1-Jan-120.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
9.60%12.10%
North AmericaOceania / AustraliaEuropeSouth AmericaCentral AmericaCaribbean,theMiddle EastAsiaAfricaWorld Average
Source: www.internetworldstats.com
Behavioral Impact
Facebook Statistics Data
Total number of monthly active Facebook users 1,110,000,000
Total number of mobile Facebook users 680,000,000
Increase in Facebook users from 2011 to 2012 26 %
Total number of minutes spent on Facebook each month 700 billion
Percent of all Facebook users who log on in any given day 50 %
Average time spent on Facebook per visit 20 minutes
Facebook Demographics Data
Percent of 18-34 year olds who check Facebook when they wake up 48 %
Percent of 18-34 year olds who check Facebook before they get out of bed 28 %
Average number of friends per facebook user 130
Average number of pages, groups, and events a user is connected to 80
Average number of photos uploaded per day 250
Number of fake Facebook profiles 83,000,000
Source: www.statisticbrain.com
Mobile Subscribers
Mobile Penetration
Cyber-Threats & Reactions
A Pentagon Project that “Makes Cyberwar as Easy as Angry Birds”
Thirteen leading technology providers, together with announced the formation of a new cybersecurity technology alliance.
Countries around the world are now preparing to fight a cyberwar.
Source: www.shapingtomorrow.com
Sophisticated Experience
e-Government Usage
2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
EU Individual Use of e-Government, percentage of populationSource: Eurostat – http://eurostat.ec.europa.eu
e-Government Index
Source: UN e-Government Survey 2012
Extent of e-Service Delivery
Source: UN e-Government Survey 2012
e-Government Trends
Social Re-engineering Active Engagement Knowledge Management Use of Social Networking to re-engineer processes, systems and organizations
Mobile Adoption Bring your own device More connected society - government Re-shaping business operating models – getting more social
Cloud Computing Again – toward centralized computing models
Big Data Toward sophisticated visualization More A. I. (Artificial Intelligence)
Pattern Discovery, real meaning, smart responses Digital Identity vs. Physical Identity
Summary
The world is going more ON-LINE People enjoy more being NETWORKED and living a
VIRTUALLY CONNECTED life Being ON-LINE is not bound to TIME and PLACE Cyber-Alliances SHAPE by external forces (like threats) Social Activities increasingly tend to have Web Presence The relationship between People and Government is
changing There are threats as well as opportunities in cyber-space
Concepts, Drivers, Alternative Futures
Toward Cyber-Nations
Simple Definitions
Nation Culturally homogeneous groups of people, larger than a
single tribe or community, which share a common language, institutions, religion, and historical experience.
A community of people who share a common language, culture, ethnicity, descent, or history.
A large group of people of the same race and language State
An independent political unit holding sovereignty over a territory.
Nation-State
A state associated with a particular nation and a sovereign territorial unit. Nation-states are building blocks of today international politics and
relationship. An Independent State:
Has space or territory which has internationally recognized boundaries. Has people who live there on an ongoing basis. Has economic activity and an organized economy. A country regulates foreign
and domestic trade and issues money. Has the power of social engineering, such as education. Has a transportation system for moving goods and people. Has a government which provides public services and police power. Has sovereignty. No other State should have power over the country's
territory. Has external recognition by other nation-states.
Nation-State History
Westphalian sovereignty: Treaty of Westphalia a series of peace treaties signed in 1648 in Europe
and ended the Thirty Years' War (1618–1648) in the Holy Roman Empire, and the Eighty Years' War (1568–1648) between Spain and the Dutch Republic.
Modern Nation-States: Legitimate states that govern effectively are widely regarded today as the defining characteristics of a modern nation-state.
Nation-States
Nation-State Nation
Government
Territory
Imaging the Futures of Nation-State
Approach: Nuts-Bolts Focus: Simple structural model of Nation-State What can be changed?
Relationships The entities (Nation, State, Territory)
Cyber-nation: All imaginable futures of Nation-State that Cyberspace and IT play a magnificent role and replaces some of the entities and functions in the legacy model
The questions: What changes are more Probable? What changes are more Plausible? What changes are more Preferred?
Relationships
Nation to Nation Virtual Contact vs. Physical Contacts E-Relationship Social Medias – Social Networks E-Culture
Nation to State E-Government E-Participation
Nation to Territory Virtual Reality vs. Physical Presence What about Immigrants? E-Culture
State to Territory What are the imaginable sort of connecting a State to Territory? E- Sovereignty?
Territory
Possibilities No Borders, No Territory Cyber-Territory Virtually Connected Distinct Territories
On Earth Universally Distributed
Plausible by 2050?
State
Virtual State International/Interstate Agencies Virtual Army, E-Military, Cyberwars E-Terrorism, E-Dictatorship, E-Cults
“…in a tectonic shift, individuals and small groups will have greater access to lethal and disruptive technologies (particularly precision-strike capabilities, cyber instruments, and bioterror weaponry), enabling them to perpetrate large-scale violence—a capability formerly the monopoly of states…” Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, National Intelligence Council, U. S. A.
The role of A. I. The Matrix Trilogy? Is it plausible by 2050?
Nation
Back to Definition of Nation Culturally homogeneous groups of people, larger than a single tribe
or community, which share a common language, institutions, religion, and historical experience.
Multiculturalism Cyberspace – leading to cultural unification or diversity?
Multiple destinies Multiple languages
Multi-national States Will cyberspace and social networks help creating a shared
vision? Different Cyber-histories?
Forming a Cyber-nation
Cyber-nation
Interests
Threats
Vision
Governance
Passions
Connections
Shared Knowledge
Future Works:Cyber-nation, Drivers and Limits
Power
Justice
Politics
Honor
Wealth
Kindness
Advertisement / Promotion
Rationale
Insight / Outlook
Action
Lotus Theoretical FrameworkWork in progress, Farzad Khandan
Conclusions
There are multiple alternatives thinking about the future of Nation-State in the context of Cyberspace
Each alternative future can be derived by starting from the legacy model and replacing some of the entities and functions by their cyber counter parts
Among the alternatives, some are plausible in 2050 We need a holistic and flexible framework to analyze
the future of cyber-nations. Such a framework has to be designed.