from dystopia to plutopia

48
Framing the Future: Dystopian Thinking Derek Woodgate PREPARED FOR CENTEXWFS MARCH, 2010 From Dystopia to Plutopia

Upload: paul-schumann

Post on 07-May-2015

1.158 views

Category:

Business


2 download

DESCRIPTION

by Derek Woodgate Plutopia is a new futures-oriented initiative that typifies the entrepreneurial creativity that Austin is famous for. This presentation will give an experiential flavor of what Plutopia is all about, as well as an insider's view of SXSW 2010. Derek Woodgate is the Founder and CEO of The Futures Lab, Inc. as well as Co-Founder and Chief Creative Officer of Plutopia, Inc.

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: From Dystopia to Plutopia

Framing the Future: Dystopian Thinking Derek Woodgate

PREPARED FOR

CENTEXWFS

MARCH, 2010

From Dystopia to Plutopia

Page 2: From Dystopia to Plutopia

2

Fear of the future

Two-thirds of US consumers believe the future will be worse for their children and grandchildren (CMI, 2007)

Economic meltdown, resource scarcity, war, climate stability, terrorism and security, population growth, epidemic, civil rights, robotics, food supply, natural disasters, ethics, migration, education….

911, Katrina, avian flu, Enron, Banking bailouts, illegal immigration, cloning, globalization, Iraq War, An inconvenient Truth, school massacres, Tsunami, demise of major corporations and the new economy, tech takeover…

Page 3: From Dystopia to Plutopia

3

-World population should stabilize at about 12.4 billion in 2035 or 14 billion

people in 2100 from 6.5 billion today

- Increasing need for water - billion cubics in 1995, 3300 B in in 2020

- World cereals demand - 6 Trillion Kcal in 1970 to 25 T Kcal

- Decreasing sea thickness; 40% in 40 years - gone in next 50 (?)

- Lack of equity amongst social groups

- Number of known terrorist organizations: 154

The fear factor

FEAR!

Page 4: From Dystopia to Plutopia

4

The fear factor

By the middle of the century 200 million may be permanently displaced due to rising sea levels, heavier floods and drought (The Stern Report) Environmental refugees forecast to rise from 30M in 2004 to 50M in 2010 and 150M by 2050 (Worldwatch Insititute)

By 2080, 3.5 billion people will be at risk from severe water shortages and drought

Climate-related disease risks of the various health outcomes assessed by WHO will more than double by 2030. Global warming could contribute to more than 300,000 deaths and 10 million illnesses annually by 2030 (World Health Organization and the University of Wisconsin at Madison)   Heat related deaths in California could more than double by 2100

By 2080, Climate change could bring major water shortages for over a Billion in Asia / South America and threaten 1.1Bn to 3.2Bn people globally

The World Bank estimates that demand for food will rise by 50 percent by 2030, as a result of growing world population, rising affluence, and the shift to Western dietary preferences by a larger middle class -

FEAR!

Page 5: From Dystopia to Plutopia

5

Challenges & Concerns The Transformation of Humankind

Resource Scarcity

Environment & Climate

Security and Rights

Conflicts & Terrorism

Disease and Pandemics

Natural disasters

Population Explosion

Economic meltdown

Framing the challenge

Page 6: From Dystopia to Plutopia

6

From Fear to Fulfillment

The greatest obstacle we encounter with stress and anxiety is the fear of the future. This fear has always been surging in the hearts and minds of man. The unknown has always threatened the ego with self doubt and produces restlessness, anxiety and insomnia. It is resolve your negativity and fulfill your dreams and desires? important to decide what you are going to do with your fear and self doubt around issues of your future. Will it be the foundation of your future? Or will you transform it's energy into new power to augment your future? Michael Patrick Bovenes

“Now is the time to choose – The present trends in the United States show that the pessimistic scenario is rapidly upon us unless we soon shift our educational priorities and cultural goals. The optimistic scenario is completely realizable if such changes are made now. The window of opportunity is in the decade of the 1990s. If we do not choose, our children may not be able to have such choice.”

From Gordon L. Anderson’s chapter The United States in 2044 (page 251), The World of 2044 – Technological Development and the Future of Society, edited by Charles Sheffield, Marcelo Alonso, Morton A. Kaplan (PWPA, 1994).

Page 7: From Dystopia to Plutopia

7

7

The future never stops

An opportunity to create a world-beating, headline grabbing first

Make external conditions fit your goals

Accelerates self-confidence / sense of purpose and extends success

Delivers a “think the unthinkable “mentality”

Helps dispel festering fears and despondency

Taking evasive and preemptive action drives attachment awareness and positive anticipation - Take back control

How to present Dystopias as a platform for fertile innovation

Page 8: From Dystopia to Plutopia

8

Creating Positive Anticipation

Positive anticipation starts with awareness and is then supplemented with a whole range of human dynamics, which give the knowledge purpose, social and cultural context, intention and a sense of time and place.

Certainly, consciousness plays a part, Different levels of the Self, Wilber’s Great Nest - The Four quadrants (I, we, it, its), Integral Psychology mapping, Howard Gardener’ streams and waves in his work on “multiple intelligences”.

Clients are frequently fearful of talking about dystopias even when approached as an opportunity builder

Page 9: From Dystopia to Plutopia

9

Understanding the value of a dystopia

“You must have chaos within you to create a

dancing star.”

- Frederic Nietzsche

Page 10: From Dystopia to Plutopia

10

10

Create a new vision and context for the dystopia

Subvert assumptions

Peel away the surface – experience the outcome –it is rarely an adventureRevisit values and signifiers Fracture, impact points and disruption

Reconstruct the dystopian reality, paradoxes, hybrids

Change perspective and conceptual relevance

Add events and potential wildcards

Page 11: From Dystopia to Plutopia

11

Framing dystopias and wildcards

Page 12: From Dystopia to Plutopia

12

“One man’s magic is another man’s engineering.”

- Robert Heinlein

Page 13: From Dystopia to Plutopia

13

Framing the challenge

Fears andChallenges

Transformation of Humankind

Conflicts & Terrorism

Natural disasters

Disease and Pandemics

Resource Scarcity

Security and Rights

Economic meltdown

Population explosion

Resource Scarcity

Sustainability

Page 14: From Dystopia to Plutopia

14

Wide-angled lens - Sustainability

Page 15: From Dystopia to Plutopia

15

Framing the sustainability-related dystopias and developments

Page 16: From Dystopia to Plutopia

16

Framing the sustainability-related dystopias and developments

Page 17: From Dystopia to Plutopia

17

17

Creating future leverage points

Example

Page 18: From Dystopia to Plutopia

18

Leveraging sustainability-related dystopias

-

- Richard Branson

“For too long, environmentally-friendly technology and issues about the environment have been seen as a corporate social responsibility issue and not an opportunity to create new wealth in the future. Governments alone cannot solve the problems we face unless the capitalist world invests in a sustainable future.”

Page 19: From Dystopia to Plutopia

19

Leveraging the sustainability-related dystopias Transportation and the environment, resource-management, changing

lifestyles, urban-migration, etc…

Client: FIAT Group, (Global)

Agriculture, population growth, resource management, food and water shortages, new farmers, etc…

Client: New Holland (Global)

Urban planning, environment, population growth, resource management, architecture, waste, community, health, etc…

Client: Bright

Page 20: From Dystopia to Plutopia

20

Page 21: From Dystopia to Plutopia

21

Fiat Case Study

Page 22: From Dystopia to Plutopia

22

Page 23: From Dystopia to Plutopia

23

Page 24: From Dystopia to Plutopia

24

Italian Soul Simple Solutions

Discovery Eco The Hero Inside

MasteringComplexity

Simple, ingenuous Greater power, less weight, persuasive safety attributes

New entries, strategic partnerships, smart manufacturing

New power train –simple refueling and services, even parking

The car that brings out the Warrior against the odds

Seamless Fluid lines, flow- part of me

Flexible architecture that’s a mobile office, homeand transporter

Central to the future mobility system – new business models -

From cradle to cradle –total recycling

Keeps me driving my way

Immersion A sense of culture and history

The hub in an annotated environment

The car asentertainment experience

Car through bio-mimicry

The authentic me – how I would like to be – the fully integrated me

Belonging The resilience of following your own path

Leverages the power of social networks

Makes me part of a tribe – peer

Safeguarding my kid’s future

The “do the right thing” car

Self gratification

Cheeky andfun likeability

Car takes the trauma out living

The car that delights every day – gives me fun

From “Big is beautiful” to “Small is cool”

The car which pampers me

The Next Redefining balance – playing with volumes

The car bridges the innovation chasm

Augmenting the human

The urban car – compact, space & low consumption

Honour, respect andself attainment

Bigger me The car that connects me to flair and power

Wellness- de-stress,, rejuvenation

The car that knows me better than I know myself – cognitive feedback

My personal contribution to society – The Altruist

The car that makes me a better/ safer driver - Upskilling

Exploration Freedom of spirit Expresses my progressiveness

The pioneering carcelebrating excellence

Lessons from space and air

The Magician – shape shifting, transform interiors

Personalise A sense of style and romanticism

Lifestyle transformer – enables me to do the inconceivable

The car that anticipates my mood

Contributing my way-the modular MPV

Living the story and re writing personalnarrative

Sharing 21st century femaleconnectivity

Access vs. ownership

The network car – The CommunicatorInterior / exterior

The car that joins with others to save the planet

Peer collaborative design input

Page 25: From Dystopia to Plutopia

25

25

MARKETPLACEFORCES

•Fuel costs – travel reduction •Growth in HEV•Search for alternative fuels Growing potential with over 50s - high expectations/spend• Role of non-automotive companies - partnerships• Steep demand growth in Latin America, Africa, Asia and Eastern Europe – overall power of BRICs• Cheap cars from India and China• Stretching of luxury• New vehicle nomenclatures• New business models (sharing, personalization, battery leasing•Japan micro car market •Growing percentage of car is electronics•Growth in battery leasing•Smart coupes and cabriolets

NEW TECHNOLOGIES • Intelligent vehicles• Advanced GPS / mobile / in-car• New powertrains / HEV, Electric• Proactive - Collision avoidance• Advanced communications networks• RFIDs / Bio-metrics• Sensory networks   • Alternative fuels – air, water, waste• Reactive / smart seats• Mood & health enhancing• Lighter weight vehicles• New interfaces – Voice interfaces• Interchangeable modules • Semi-autonomous agents info • OLEDs Lighting projection• Enhanced vision technologies • Cognitive monitoring & feedback• Proactive haptics• AI / robotics / Ambient intelligence• Nanotech – bio – fuel cells• Future batteries, electric / hybrid• New materials• Shape-shifting & personalized skins• Modular design and construction –

rapid prototyping

DISRUPTORS AND UNCERTAINTIES

Fuel prices reach $10 (Euro 10) per gallon

Fuel cells arrive early – ToyotaMature economies crash and have

very negative impact on BRICs$2500 car becomes highly successfulEnvironmental legislation even tougherDetroit companies disappearDevelopment of unexpected fuel: air,

water, wasteLaunching of highly successful electric

car

FUTURE CONSUMERTRENDS

• Seamlessness – digital connectivity

• Modular living

• Immersion (escapism & disconnection

• Unplugged living

• Life enrichment / experience collecting /playfulness and fantasy

• Belonging and sharing

• Transparency and integrity

• Self gratification / being remarkable

• In the know – The Next – Premium mindset

• Bigger Me – self extension

• Exploration

• New partnerships

Futures knowledge base

Page 26: From Dystopia to Plutopia

26

26

QUANTIFIABLETRENDS

Factory-installed car navigation systems in the U.S. and Europe should increase gradually to 30 percent by 2012, reaching an annual volume of more than 10 million units.

• Major global investments in fuel cell tech

• of around 12% during 2008-2015.

• China will add 33 Million automobiles during 2008-2010.Growth in touch screens – 6 million units

• . Shipments of hard drives for in-car digital systems are expected to reach 16.6 million units by 2013, nearly five times the 3.5 million in 2006,

• By 2020 they expect the proportion of spark ignition gasoline powered passenger vehicles to drop to 45% while diesel powered cars will increase to18% of the passenger car market. The hybrid penetration predicted to increase to 27%

CRITICAL SOCIAL INFLUENCES

• Energy usage

• Fuel costs

• Environmental concerns – eco cities

• Emissions legislation

• Traffic congestion

• Technology convergence

• Economic policies, financing and costs

• Overall global population growth

• Importance of Boomers and echo-boomers

• Smaller families

• Shorter and fewer journeys

• Redefinition of luxury – includes tech – more sophisticated consumers

• People getting bigger and taller in developed countries

• Changing meaning of celebrity

• Globalization

EMERGING LIFESTYLE CHANGES

• Consumers have increasing access to product and other info

• Mobility and ubiquitous connectivity• Movement to cities / higher density

i.e. smaller, efficient  vehicles• Telecommuting, working longer or

more active retirement• Expect on-demand, personalized

and flexible / reconfigurable vehicles• 50+ consumers will continue to want

to lead the lifestyle they always had - less likely to change image / identity with aging

• Multiple identities, changing archetypes, redefined lifestages

• Desire for mass “design”• Open source design – peer

colaboration• Desire for access to multiple

vehicles

PANEL / EXPERTOUTPUT SUMMARY

Cradle to cradle (recycling) and environmental issues

New business models and players i.e. Virgin, Google, etc. peer design will be massive and peer recommendations will dictate

Connectivity – car as a hub with a mesh network

Electric – simple, less complex, reductionist, easy to navigate, park and use

Modular, Lego-style with rentable add-ons (what are your needs for this weekend?)

Smartness – know me, augment my capabilities, help me do the right thing. Protect me

Well-being and healthAdvanced infotainment systemsAdaptive systems, sensors, feedbackRobot cars, AI, Nano inputUrban migration

Futures knowledge base

Page 27: From Dystopia to Plutopia

27

27

Knowledge clustering to create triggers

Page 28: From Dystopia to Plutopia

28

Trigger One: Eco/Urban – the community me

28

Eco / Urban

- the community me

Hybrid path – drop spark

ignitiion gasoline powered

Major investments in

fuel cell technologies –

nano-bio advances

Robots & Ai to adapt to

driving styles and improve

fuel efficiencies.

Company transparency – brand credibility

The advantage of hybrids over non- hybrid powertrains is significantly more

pronounced in urban and

"sensible" versus highway and

"aggressive" driving patterns.

Continuing increase in fuel prices

Access / sharing

Fuel efficient – downsized engines,

battery life improvements

Household waste & air

driven vehicles

Auto-pilot -reduce

congestion

Lighter weight

vehicles

Economics – few trips, esp.

shopping – increase on-line

Alignment with green thinking & considered as highly

innovative

Environmental legislation

Fuel and environmental

concerns

New urbanist

movement

Cradle to cradle 95% of vehicle weight recyclable by

2015

Improved maneuverability, auto-pilot parking

Bigger Me

Page 29: From Dystopia to Plutopia

29

Future triggers

29

Eco / urban

Smaller is

bigger

The status of

luxury

Healthy interior

s

Infotainment

Upskilling

Design within reach

Major growth in hybrids and electricThe hybrid penetration is predicted to increase to 27 % by 2020..

Cradle to CradleHolistic models of health DNA links to environmental impacts on health • • Environment Cost efficienciesSolar roofs, variable transmission or manual/automatic transmissions, batteries, light

Nanotech design & Lighter weight, smaller engines -new materials *carbon fiber, titanium, graphene enhanced plastics

Reconfigurable spaceReconfigurable instrument panel offering 3+1 person seating in a comfortable space. This “rotational instrument panel” extends to provide a rotary table

Shape shifting materials and architectures – elements that retract and expand

Luxury by segments tech upgradable for “creatives”; classy comfort for “boomers

Personalizing our vehicles – a palette for self-expression, life changing: The My Lounge interior concept defines a new way of consuming and selling cars. With the aspect of personalization as the overall theme,

Mood monitoring, feedback & adaptive environmentsContext-aware technologies that can read the driver’s current state (i.e analyse pitch of voice, volume and intonation, to build a picture of driver emotion) and change the sensory environment accordingly (i.e relax driver when under stress). Biofeedback – blood pressure, HR, breathing rhythm

Transformation of data processing /feedbackThe emergence of real-time, speech recognition, 3D visualization, ambient displays, leveraging the supercomputing powers enabled by abundant computing.

Wimax, MiFI (Dedicated Short Range Seamless Communications). Mobile entertainmentRemote vehicle diagnostics, compelling and less expensive telemetrics services, highly advanced automotive safety systems, and remote audio and video downloads into the vehicle.

Haptic feedbackHolistic models of health DNA links to environmental impacts on health • • Environment •

Extending human capacity: awareness, cognitive technologies (memory – mental)

Factory-installed car navigation systems in the U.S. and Europe should increase gradually to 30 percent by 2012, reaching an annual volume of more than 10 million units.

Using new technologies and materials to reduce costs and deliver exciting designs with flairNanotech design (better fuel efficient, more durable and lighter -

New materials – carbon fibres & composites & nanotech for nanocoatings & self-cleaning plastics, etc. Advanced surface coating applications that could enhance paint adhesion, appearance and durability; Wiperless windshields; Ultra-light synthetic polymers, plastic. and carbon fibre.

Make me a better driver, safer and more competent

Smaller, more space, more power and advanced features

Personalized Luxury, sensory enhancement,

Experience collecting,

Lower costs, enviro-friendly, , ease of getting around

Seamless connectivity,, freedom & independence

Feeling at my best in body, mind & soul

Exciting design at affordable prices

Page 30: From Dystopia to Plutopia

30

STAGE THREE – FUTUREMAPPINGOiling the triggers to create a concept platform

Page 31: From Dystopia to Plutopia

31

31

STAGE THREE - FUTUREMAPPING

Oiling the triggers - Concept engineering

A new tool kit

Mutate Rethink Spin

Migrate

Transform Simulate Displace Fuse Translate

Page 32: From Dystopia to Plutopia

32

Future Automotive Landscape

European EV market estimated to roll out more than 250,000 vehicles

E.U. fuel economy - equivalent of 43 miles per U.S. gallon

Lithium-ion battery technology R&D increase to $5 billion (from $1 billion in 2008)

OLED/ warning signage introduced in vehicles

Interactive 3D screens delivering entertainment and information

Electronics demand from Ultra Low Cost Car $10,000, is expected to reach $8.2 billion by 2015

25%of Japanese households

powered by fuel cells

Sweden aims to achieve a complete oil-free economy

Proportion of spark ignition gasoline powered passenger vehicles to drop

to 45 % of market China to overtake the US as the largest single vehicle market

Nano-size electronics inside active contact lenses receives media and entertainment

Fuel cell cars mass

marketed

India; 16-percent per year growth

in light vehicle production

Premium segment predicted to grow to 3 million in US and 3.5 million in Western

Europe

City Transport Cell (CTC) reconfigurable vehicles

All-electric plug in vehicles a reality

Consumers expect comprehensive and integrated transportation service and car relative to need

Commercial operations of the SwissRapide Express - using Maglev technology

US: cars require fuel-efficiency standard of 35.7 miles/gal (15km/litre)

Up to 5% of conventional lights replaced by OLEDs (Western oucntries

Home energy station enable drivers to fill up their cars at home

14% of vehicles fitted

with branded

premium sound

features (double 2007 figure

Market for display based entertainment systems, (OE and aftermarket) reaches $5.9B

OE and aftermarket -advanced wireless technologies for equipped systems reaches $1.9B

Market for multimedia and communications systems worth US$27B

18.2m parking assistance systems fitted in to newly-registered cars

Data filtering and behavior agents

20182016 2017 201920152014

By 2015, experts predict nanomaterials will reach 70% usage in automotive applications (fuel efficiencies, lighter & durable)

Page 33: From Dystopia to Plutopia

33

STAGE THREE – FUTUREMAPPING

Refining the concept platform

Page 34: From Dystopia to Plutopia

34

34

STAGE THREE - FUTUREMAPPING

Opportunity hacking

White spaces

Black holes

Hidden worlds

Missing colors

Unusual perspectives

Reversed focus

Paradoxes & hybrids

Reapply the wildcards To ‘Stretch’ the thinking paradigm To ‘Expand’ the thinking paradigm To ‘Crack’ the thinking paradigm

Page 35: From Dystopia to Plutopia

35

35

STAGE FOUR:FUTURESCAPING

Re-contextualizing platforms

Implicate not replicate

Integrates disparate areas

Higher order properties

The platform as an event

Dimensions not units

Human-centric

Page 36: From Dystopia to Plutopia

36

STAGE FOUR/FIVE – FUTUREMAPPING/FUTURETUNING

Creating and evaluating the future scenarios

For confidentiality reasons, I cannot show the outputs or finally selected / developed preferred futures and action plan. We created 11 future concepts, which we worked on with 30 key personnel from FIAT for 2 days.

We selected 4 preferred futures, which were evaluated and taken through design, prototyping and market opportunity study.

Page 37: From Dystopia to Plutopia

37

Bright Green Austin is a network of sustainability activists

Austin Energy's green power program is #1 in the nation in sale and taking the lead in developing a forward-thinking Plug-in Hybrid electric Vehicle (PHEV) strategy!

Reduced pollution

Resource consumption

Health (tackling obesity, exercise, zoning, brain)

Stress reduction (improved aesthetics, culture, greening)

Community and contribution

100 MW of solar facilities by 2020

30% of our electric supply from renewable generation sources by 2020.

Page 38: From Dystopia to Plutopia

38

The city as data

Sensor playgrounds - simulation

Leveraging real-time data to utilize emerging behaviors in space

Responsive, kinetic architecture –CO2 detection

Zero waste and improved resource utilization

Open source streets & annotated environments

Page 39: From Dystopia to Plutopia

39

My city, my body

Biological interactions and biomapping

Bio identities and communities

Cognitive feedback

Organic dwellings

Urban play - DIY

Page 40: From Dystopia to Plutopia

40

Community design

Resilient communities

Ability to withstand systemic shocks

Generate value and income

Smart grids, microgrids supporting local food production

City as a laboratory

The slow city movement (Cittaslow) – anti-standardization

Networked co-working

Future City and Sim City

Page 41: From Dystopia to Plutopia

41

Sustainable material thinking

Pollution resistant coatings Nanomembranes – fresh water facility and virtual water Printable solar cells From carbon nano-tubes to polymer scaffolding Media architecture Interactive facades Buildings as city lighting Self-analyzing and healing

Page 42: From Dystopia to Plutopia

42

Beyond density building

Urban farming - vertical

Marine habitats

Spin farming

Permaculture – edible landscapes

Green roofs, hydroponic and container farming

Nanoarchitecture – smart greenhouses

Invisible buildings - metamaterials

Page 43: From Dystopia to Plutopia

43

Expanding our network / community

Masdar City - Dubai Zero waste, zero carbon

New Songdo City (West Seoul) – tech testbed

Nano City, India – Collaborative communities

Dongtan – Eco city

Fibercity, Tokyo – spatial fibers

Consulting for the future of New Orleans

Page 44: From Dystopia to Plutopia

44

A call to action

"It’s a failure of imagination to think that climate change is going to be an escape from jail – and it’s a failure in a couple of ways. Kim Stanley Robinson

1.Total systems failure

2. Limits to growth – failure of restraint and the likely cause of mini collapses.

The continuing need for sophisticated technology and alternative design are critical, but continue to be a burden.

Create the desired future vs. Complexity theory

- Working beyond emergence, simulated patterns and visible connections – the rhizomatic approach looking for the rhythms in between the lines.

,

 

Page 45: From Dystopia to Plutopia

45

The power and persuasiveness of the arts

Artists change minds primarily by introducing new ideas, skills, and practices. They make use of an array of diverse mental representations that infect our minds.

Howard Gardner – Changing Minds

Page 46: From Dystopia to Plutopia

46

Plutopia – Experience the Future

Bill McKinnon – Best selling author – sustainable economicsBruce Sterling – Sci Fi writerDJ Spooky – Author, Professor, Composer, ExperimentalistStanza – Interactive, generative, DNA-based artistHipnautica – Technology-inspired musicGreen Grover – Multi-media artist (Green Visions)Natasha Vita More - TranshumanistAdam Zaretsky – Bio artistChris Jordan – Social commentator / artistSandy Stone – academic theorist, artist performerThe Robot Group

We only hire eco-friendly venuesNew trend: Temple (San Fran.), Surya (London) Greenhouse (New York), Watt (Rotterdam)

Page 47: From Dystopia to Plutopia

47

Plutopia 2010

Page 48: From Dystopia to Plutopia

“Your thoughts create your future.” - Stephen Knapp. Philosopher