from famine to prosperity in ethiopia: the roles of water management, farmer innovation and...
TRANSCRIPT
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From Famine to Prosperity in Rural Ethiopia: The Roles of Water Management, Farmer Innovation and Government
PoliciesDouglas Merrey
January 9th, 2014
“Great Decisions” presentation
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Famine
Starvation
Poverty
Misery
Drought
What is your first reaction when you hear the word“Ethiopia”?
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TV and news magazine coverage
Live Aid concert to raise funds (Bob Geldorf)
Ethiopia as a hopeless tragic basket case
---------------------------------------------
Hunger, poverty have not been eradicated yet
BUT much has changed for the better.
Ethiopia is moving in the right direction – poverty reduction, improvement of people’s lives.
This is its story in brief, illustrated with work I have been involved in for the past decade
Our impressions fixed by images from famines 70s & 80s
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Location and Map
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2000 years of ancient history in 1 page
Ancient Christian civilization claiming direct connections to Solomon through Queen of Sheba (Axum)
Its own script, calendar, versions of Christian saints
Arc of the Covenant
Highly stratified feudal system: Emperor, Landlords, Church owned all the land and absorbed surpluses
Peasants were serfs until Emperor Haile Selassie was overthrown 1974
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Before we free the serfs …:
Ancient unique history and culture—pride
Never colonized despite British and later Italian attempts
Emperor Haile Selassie as hero in resistance to Italy in 30s
Culturally highly diverse –our image is largely based on Amhara and Tigraycultural model
Origin of coffeeCoffee ceremony
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Ethiopian Geography
Highlands
Population concentrated
High rainfall but very seasonal and erratic
“Water tower” – 85% of water flowing down Nile to Egypt
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20th Century Trends
Rapid population growth
Little investment in infrastructure, education, public health
Farmers forced to cultivate steep slopes, poor land (no alternative) Little technological innovation
Erosion, loss of nutrients in land
All these combined with drought, corrupt & ineffective government FAMINE, REVOLUTION
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Recent political history-the Derg
Famine in 1970s – undermined Haile Selassie’s regime
1974: Takeover by “Derg” – communist-leaning regime led by military Period of extreme brutality, civil war almost continuous
Govt. concentrated on agriculture, rural development
Implemented radical reforms in rural areas: confiscated all lands; collective farms; local “Peasant Associations” which controlled local resources; periodic redistribution of land to maintain “equality”
Tried to drive development from top – quotas to be filled, forced labor
1980s: Little foreign assistance except food aid; the beginnings of the “Sustainable Land Management” [SLM]programs
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The EPRDF
Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front and allies (Eritrean People’s Liberation Front) defeated Derg in 1991 and took over—remains the ruling party
Established a new government and invited foreign partners
Continuities and new directions for the country
Meles Zenawi (d. 2012) & Hailemariam Desalegn
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Federal Democratic Government of Ethiopia
Federal structure, nominally democratic
Ceremonial president; powerful Prime Minster [elections every 5 years]
Funds, policies, planning from top
Implementation at local community, district & Regional State levels
Constitutional guarantee of gender equity
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EPRDF has leftist roots but highly pragmatic Single-minded focus on developing the country “Agriculture Led Industrial Development” Coherent, ambitious programs for poverty reduction,
education, primary health care, climate adaptation, environmental conservation, roads, water development (hydro-electric, irrigation)
Attracted massive foreign assistance, investments by diaspora, and growing investments by multi-national firms Economic growth 7-10% annually
Big push to develop advanced education and research capacities---collaboration with foreign institutionsIn a hurry to develop the country—want to be “middle
income” by 2020 – leads to impatience with delays but open to learning from experience and changing policies based on
evidence
Government Policies
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Current population and
growth
94 million currently 2.9%/year
(high!)
Education: kids in primary
school
27% in 1994 100% today
Life expectancy 49 in 1974 62 in 2011
Infant mortality 174/1000 in 1985-90 58/1000 now
Poverty rate 45.5% in 1995 28% now
GDP/capita $160 in 1994 $410 now
Food IN-security high & little change 2 – 7 m people
Malnutrition (% under-weight
kids <5 years old)
47.2% in 2000 +/- 30% today
Some progress but long road ahead
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Ethiopian Highland Farms Mixed crops & livestock (cattle)
Crop type varies with altitude, rainfall, soils: teff. rice, wheat, corn, barley, sorghum, potatoes, vegetables, fruit trees, coffee, qat
Oxen for plowing
Very small holdings: half acre to perhaps 3 acres
Mostly depend on rainfall, though irrigation is expanding
Many farmers need to find off-farm work to survive
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Sustainable Land Management (SLM)
Land degradation perceived as the major “cause” of famines in the 1980s
Big push – research on technologies and investments in promoting soil water conservation practices
Food for Work [FfW] to support implementation, 1980s to present
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Why SLM?
Erosion, loss topsoil & nutrients
declining production
Siltation of downstream canals, dams
Building ridges, terraces, “bunds”, changing farming practices to reverse degradation
Benefits to farmer over time
Benefits to people downstream
Requires farmers to cooperate on their watersheds
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Blue Nile Falls
The Reality—Silt on its way to Sudan The Myth-Pristine Water Flow
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Examples of SLM Interventions (Soil Water Conservation)
Fodder on bund
Water storage pond
Terraces
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Derg and early EPDRF period – quotas set from above Forced labor – built on tradition of requiring labor contributions
from all families for community projects
But project defined by government not community
Required in order to participate in FfW programs – which were critical to meeting family food requirements
End of Dergmany communities destroyed infrastructure that had been built Expansion of programs FfW programs with donor support in
1990s [“incentivized”]
Gradual transformation: more focused on public works that actually benefit people; consultation on community priorities
“Safety net” programs now institutionalized for SLM, other community works
Implementation: From Coerced to “Incentivized” Participation
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Towards Community-driven SLM Programs
Planning now formally combination of community-proposed investments and final plans imposed from top “Participatory’ rhetoric,
combined with local development officials whose performance is assessed based on quotas from the top
Example of household ponds campaign
Continued dependence on FfW, also Cash for Work —“safety net”
$1B/year investment
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Construction of terraces:
Increased soil depths
Increased soil fertility
Hence,
Increased productivity
Sustained agric. production
Use of agric. inputs becomes viable
Impacts
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Rehabilitation of degraded hillsides to productive woodlots
Ground water recharged and base flow enhanced
Impacts
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Nile Basin Development Challenge
Multi-disciplinary multi-institutional researchprogram partnering international and Ethiopian institutions
Combines action research with communities, communication & training programs, and frequent interactions with policy makers
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Community engagement
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Stakeholder Capacity Building
A lot of talk about ‘participatory planning’ but difficult to put it
into action.
WAT-A-GAME- Participatory planning for NRM
(www.watagame.info)
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Regional Experts and Decision Makers
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Applied research will continue in partnership with Government
State Minister for Natural Resources
With a key decision-maker in Agriculture Ministry
Workshop small group
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Rural Ethiopia Today Poverty persists but no longer a
massive global basket case
Many people are beginning to prosper and opportunities for the future are improving
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Visit to a rural market town
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Addis Ababa
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Past, Present, Future
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35
THANK YOU!
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Are you with me?